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WR DeVante Parker, Retired (2 Viewers)

PhinsFan here, seen a lot of Parker since he started 5 years ago, 

26-494-3TD

56-744-4TD

57-670-1TD...ONE!

24-309-1TD...ONE!

4 seasons he racked up a total of 9 TD which is exactly what he has scored in total this season...Year 5 he has a career year but in reality he didn't catch that many passes, 64 by my count. Career high, sure. But his Yards per Catch went up to 16.6 and I don't think you can count on that moving forward. 

He is a total Sell High and thank your lucky stars. Miami is going to go thru a bunch of changes in the next 6-18 months and I don't see how you can feel good about it. They will have Williams coming back but all those draft picks, at least a couple of them will be young WRs to groom for the eventual new QB. 

You always believe when someone is on your team that they are worth a little more than they are, do yourself a favor and sell sell sell while the getting is good. What if he spits out 50/700/4 next year, then where will you be?

 
Ministry of Pain said:
PhinsFan here, seen a lot of Parker since he started 5 years ago, 

26-494-3TD

56-744-4TD

57-670-1TD...ONE!

24-309-1TD...ONE!

4 seasons he racked up a total of 9 TD which is exactly what he has scored in total this season...Year 5 he has a career year but in reality he didn't catch that many passes, 64 by my count. Career high, sure. But his Yards per Catch went up to 16.6 and I don't think you can count on that moving forward. 

He is a total Sell High and thank your lucky stars. Miami is going to go thru a bunch of changes in the next 6-18 months and I don't see how you can feel good about it. They will have Williams coming back but all those draft picks, at least a couple of them will be young WRs to groom for the eventual new QB. 

You always believe when someone is on your team that they are worth a little more than they are, do yourself a favor and sell sell sell while the getting is good. What if he spits out 50/700/4 next year, then where will you be?
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By this same logic, what if you trade him for a 2nd round pick that doesnt pan out and he spits out 85 - 1300-12 in an improved offense on a competitive team?

If I could get a first rounder for him, sure I would consider dealing him.  Less than a first rounder, I am holding on after what I saw this year, including the confidence that our new and seemingly competent coaching staff seems to have in him.  If I am a team that can compete next year, I am probably keeping him unless I am offered a top 8ish pick for him.

With a game left to play, this former top 15 pick has 64-1065-9 playing for a tanking/rebuilding team with a 37 year old journeyman QB being easily their best option this season.  By all that is holy, things should get better next year for this offense, not worse.  Logically, the WR that just put up a pretty substantial season and was just extended to a lucrative deal should benefit.  

Write this season off as a fluke if thats how you see it.  I dont see it that way personally.  I saw the light go on for a very talented athlete who finally has a competent coaching staff, and was finally able to play 16 games.  If I could get him for a 2nd rounder in a dynasty league, I would pounce.

 
As an aside, I think its funny how many people saw a player like Damien Williams as a lock this season after he played like 4 decent games last year.  This guy was undrafted, had several sub-par seasons under his belt, and didnt put together a good season - he put together 3-4 good games at the end of a season...and he was everyone's darling all offseason.

Parker, who was drafted 14th overall a few years ago has flashed talent all along, just put together a top 10-15 season on one of the worst offenses in the NFL, was shown the confidence of his staff with a nice extension, and looked like a dominant stud WR for the bulk of a lost season is viewed as a fluke.

The guy has the pedigree.  Has the confidence of his coaches.  Has the confidence of his current QB.  And he just put up a studly season, trailing only Michael Thomas since week 7 according to a post above.  Thomas had a record breaking season.

Show the man some love, people!  

 
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The Dolphins have run 954 offensive plays this season. The average team has run 952 plays so far over 15 games. They are on pace to run 1018 total plays this season.

This is a pretty significant improvement over the number of plays the Dolphins have run over the last 3 seasons. In 2018 the Dophins ran 878 plays. In 2017 the Dolphins ran 995 total plays and 2016 they ran 913 plays. They ran the fewest plays in the NFL in 2016 and 2018. In 2017 they ran the 22nd most plays.

So it is a positive sign for the offense as a whole that they have been able to run more plays than they were with the previous coaching staff.

Something to be concerned about in regards to this though is that Miami has thrown the ball 571 times and ran the ball 327 times. This is somewhat on purpose, a rebuilding year and they traded away their best RB while doing nothing really to replace him.

I do not think that is the long term plan. I would expect them to get a better RB and to run the ball at a higher percentage than they were this season. That doesn't mean they won't throw the ball as much as they did this season, with an improved running game they would be more balanced and this could lead to the Dolphins running more total plays next season. What is more likely to happen is that the pass attempts go down somewhat but the efficiency of those attempts could improve and make this difference in volume a wash.

I do not know who is going to be the Dolphins QB next season or beyond that?

I assume they will be looking to take a QB in the draft. If the QB works out they could be better than Fitzpatrick but as we all know it usually takes a QB a few years before they start performing at their peak level. 

So in the short term I am seeing two reasons why the passing attempts may be fewer in 2020 for the Dolphins than what they did this season.

DeVantae Parker got 20.8% of the total targets for the Dolphins this season. He had 7.8 targets per game this year. he caught 54.7% of his targets. I do not see the target volume of 125 targets being sustainable at such a low conversion rate. Most of the good WR are catching the ball at 60% or more. This keeps going up as well. There are WR maintaining 70% catch rates in the league now.

This is the kind of WR Parker is, a big WR who can win contested catches on deep balls. His career reception percentage is 57 this is who he is.

He scored 9 TD this season. I am not really seeing that as sustainable either. 9 TD definitely looks like an outlier when Parkers previous best was 4.

I do think his targets could be sustainable at around 100 per season based on his target volume from 2016 and 2017 being on pace for 118  targets in 2017. So for projections I would start at 100 targets for Parker in 2020 with the upside being 120 targets and the downside 80 targets.

At 100 targets Parker would project for 57 receptions 826 yards 4 TD over 16 games in 2020 based on his career averages.

Outlook beyond 2020 I am skeptical of him keeping his job as the primary WR for the Dolphins or another team.

 
ChuckLiddell said:
By this same logic, what if you trade him for a 2nd round pick that doesnt pan out and he spits out 85 - 1300-12 in an improved offense on a competitive team?

If I could get a first rounder for him, sure I would consider dealing him.  Less than a first rounder, I am holding on after what I saw this year, including the confidence that our new and seemingly competent coaching staff seems to have in him.  If I am a team that can compete next year, I am probably keeping him unless I am offered a top 8ish pick for him.
Click to expand...
To me, it all comes down to what you paid for him.  He was a high rookie draft pick and some owners have stubbornly held on to him hoping for that "I told you so" moment that validated their bad investment.

Others got him at market value (3rd or maybe a 2nd round pick, or as a throw-in/sweetener) and should be looking to cash out at a profit. 

Going forward, he's likely somewhere in the WR26-36 range, and I think we've seen his career year.  He could put up another WR1 season, but I don't think it's something I want to bet on.

 
Any predictions for Parker's numbers this week with Gilmore being glued to him all afternoon? Gilmore just gave up his first TD of the season when John Brown ran him in circles.

 
Todem said:
I will go on record as a flash in the pan season in an otherwise awful career until this season. There are so many other WR's I rather own then going through this headache.

One season does not make a career. I have seen this movie before a zillion times. And the Dolphins will again show why they have been a craptastic front office by extending him yet again to 10MM per when they already had a prove it deal done earlier this year before the season started. Prove it means do it two seasons in a row.

I am highly skeptical he can maintain himself. And if he does....fantastic. As a Dolphins fan would love nothing more. But from a FF perspective. I will let another owner enjoy this highly potential headache next season when he comes up lame every other week with some ailment. 
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I happen to have Parker in half my leagues and largely agree. I'll be holding, mostly because I wouldn't expect to get much, it would take more than a 2 for sure (maybe an early 2 in super flex or IDP)

Ministry of Pain said:
PhinsFan here, seen a lot of Parker since he started 5 years ago, 

26-494-3TD

56-744-4TD

57-670-1TD...ONE!

24-309-1TD...ONE!

4 seasons he racked up a total of 9 TD which is exactly what he has scored in total this season...Year 5 he has a career year but in reality he didn't catch that many passes, 64 by my count. Career high, sure. But his Yards per Catch went up to 16.6 and I don't think you can count on that moving forward. 

He is a total Sell High and thank your lucky stars. Miami is going to go thru a bunch of changes in the next 6-18 months and I don't see how you can feel good about it. They will have Williams coming back but all those draft picks, at least a couple of them will be young WRs to groom for the eventual new QB. 

You always believe when someone is on your team that they are worth a little more than they are, do yourself a favor and sell sell sell while the getting is good. What if he spits out 50/700/4 next year, then where will you be?
Click to expand...
Preston doesn't scare me away from Parker, there's room for two good WRs. But a lot of Parker's success this year is attributable to Fitz. I don't know if that continues. 

ChuckLiddell said:
By this same logic, what if you trade him for a 2nd round pick that doesnt pan out and he spits out 85 - 1300-12 in an improved offense on a competitive team?

If I could get a first rounder for him, sure I would consider dealing him.  Less than a first rounder, I am holding on after what I saw this year, including the confidence that our new and seemingly competent coaching staff seems to have in him.  If I am a team that can compete next year, I am probably keeping him unless I am offered a top 8ish pick for him.

With a game left to play, this former top 15 pick has 64-1065-9 playing for a tanking/rebuilding team with a 37 year old journeyman QB being easily their best option this season.  By all that is holy, things should get better next year for this offense, not worse.  Logically, the WR that just put up a pretty substantial season and was just extended to a lucrative deal should benefit.  

Write this season off as a fluke if thats how you see it.  I dont see it that way personally.  I saw the light go on for a very talented athlete who finally has a competent coaching staff, and was finally able to play 16 games.  If I could get him for a 2nd rounder in a dynasty league, I would pounce.
Click to expand...
Yeah, but that 37yo is exactly what Parker needed. 

My concern isn't Parker slipping back so much, but who will throw the rock. Fitz was most likely just a gap. Put burrow or Herbert in Miami and I'm on board. 

 
-OZ- said:
I happen to have Parker in half my leagues and largely agree. I'll be holding, mostly because I wouldn't expect to get much, it would take more than a 2 for sure (maybe an early 2 in super flex or IDP)

Preston doesn't scare me away from Parker, there's room for two good WRs. But a lot of Parker's success this year is attributable to Fitz. I don't know if that continues. 

Yeah, but that 37yo is exactly what Parker needed. 

My concern isn't Parker slipping back so much, but who will throw the rock. Fitz was most likely just a gap. Put burrow or Herbert in Miami and I'm on board. 
Click to expand...
I liked the way you used the 3 quotes, that's all I really wanted to say. I think this has been a good spirited debate, you all even have Phins fans disagreeing amongst themselves so to me that's always a good sign of good debate both sides. 👍

 
-OZ- said:
I happen to have Parker in half my leagues and largely agree. I'll be holding, mostly because I wouldn't expect to get much, it would take more than a 2 for sure (maybe an early 2 in super flex or IDP)

Preston doesn't scare me away from Parker, there's room for two good WRs. But a lot of Parker's success this year is attributable to Fitz. I don't know if that continues. 

Yeah, but that 37yo is exactly what Parker needed. 

My concern isn't Parker slipping back so much, but who will throw the rock. Fitz was most likely just a gap. Put burrow or Herbert in Miami and I'm on board. 
Click to expand...
Fitz has been a lot of fun this year and provided a nice jolt,  but I dont think many would argue that Fitz is not an easily replaceable talent.  There are like 9 NFL GMs who have already basically provided this opinion.  Sure, they could take a step back at QB potentially, but its not like it would be a Peyton Manning to Trevor Semien step back.  Fitz is under contract for another year and may well serve as the stop gap for Tua, or maybe even Rosen.  If you are basing your opinion of Parker on Fitz, you may well have him back in 2020.  If not, it will be because someone beat him out, unless he retires - but yesterday when asked,  he said he feels great so I doubt he will retire.

 
ChuckLiddell said:
Fitz has been a lot of fun this year and provided a nice jolt,  but I dont think many would argue that Fitz is not an easily replaceable talent.  There are like 9 NFL GMs who have already basically provided this opinion.  Sure, they could take a step back at QB potentially, but its not like it would be a Peyton Manning to Trevor Semien step back.  Fitz is under contract for another year and may well serve as the stop gap for Tua, or maybe even Rosen.  If you are basing your opinion of Parker on Fitz, you may well have him back in 2020.  If not, it will be because someone beat him out, unless he retires - but yesterday when asked,  he said he feels great so I doubt he will retire.
Click to expand...
I could be wrong, but it sure seems like Fitz is good for WRs, but turnover prone. Kind of an older Winston.

 
Biabreakable said:
I might have to change my tune with how consistent this connection has been.

WIll FItzpatrick be the QB next season?
Click to expand...
He is signed thru 2020. So he will be back. But everything depends on the draft and if Rosen progresses and is given a chance. 

So it is up in the air until we have the draft and get into training camp.

 
Bigboy10182000 said:
I watched the entire game and he did very well. Doesn’t matter if he’s covered either with the way he tracks the ball and uses his body. 
Click to expand...
Game winning drive coming out of the 2:00 warning, you know the throw. Fitz just put it up about 15-20 yds down the sideline and Parker elevated high and caught the ball at the top before the DB could really position himself and challenge for the football, it was one of the best throw and catches I've seen in a long time here in Miami. 

 
Todem said:
He is signed thru 2020. So he will be back. But everything depends on the draft and if Rosen progresses and is given a chance. 

So it is up in the air until we have the draft and get into training camp.
Click to expand...
You mention Rosen, I also think an off season with this coaching staff and come June, this guy could be something in camp and at least give Miami something to think about. I know his stock is way low but that's not bad right now. Nothing is expected anyways but I would be shocked if he is just released. 

 
Ministry of Pain said:
You mention Rosen, I also think an off season with this coaching staff and come June, this guy could be something in camp and at least give Miami something to think about. I know his stock is way low but that's not bad right now. Nothing is expected anyways but I would be shocked if he is just released. 
Click to expand...
Yeah Rosen’s contract is very inexpensive. He is here next season too IMO.

 
In recent years, my dyno team has been blessed with the relatively late emergence of Sanders in Den and Woods in LA. I drafted both as rookies and held because I believed in their talent. 

Parker may follow suit. We shall see, but I am holding rather than shopping. 

 
I rode the Parker train to a ring - and was basically bumped off in another championship because of him - but feel this a great sell window. 

Any recent deals with him go down? 

 
tombonneau said:
I rode the Parker train to a ring - and was basically bumped off in another championship because of him - but feel this a great sell window. 

Any recent deals with him go down? 
Click to expand...
Only offer I've received for him was the 2.07, which wasn't nearly enough to move the needle for me.  I may would consider moving him for like the 2.01, but it would have to be at the draft and for a player I really wanted.  But I probably wouldn't even do that.

 
tombonneau said:
I rode the Parker train to a ring - and was basically bumped off in another championship because of him - but feel this a great sell window. 

Any recent deals with him go down? 
Click to expand...
I was offered Darren Waller and Phillip Lindsey for him during our rookie draft a week ago.  I accepted.

 
Nero said:
I was offered Darren Waller and Phillip Lindsey for him during our rookie draft a week ago.  I accepted.
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That's a very good offer. Second as previous poster mentioned way too light. Even early second IMO is too little. Seems like the kind of player you will get more in return in players from a WR needy team than you will pure draft capital.

 
JoeJoe88 said:
Only offer I've received for him was the 2.07, which wasn't nearly enough to move the needle for me.  I may would consider moving him for like the 2.01, but it would have to be at the draft and for a player I really wanted.  But I probably wouldn't even do that.
Click to expand...
If a guy like Tee Higgins or Pittman or even a Ruggs was there at 2.01 I would pull the trigger on that deal.

 
Nero said:
I have had a hard time quitting too.  He seem poised for a third year breakout with 56 reception 744 yards and 4 TD's after year 2.  Then Jay Cutler happened, so I didn't lay most of the blame on him, but he followed it up with another dud with Tannehill/Osweiler.  I still own him in one league and traded 2.7 for him before the NFL draft.  It turns out I would have been able to get JJ Arcega-Whiteside or Damien Harris at that pick, so it better work out.
Click to expand...


JoeJoe88 said:
Only offer I've received for him was the 2.07, which wasn't nearly enough to move the needle for me.  I may would consider moving him for like the 2.01, but it would have to be at the draft and for a player I really wanted.  But I probably wouldn't even do that.
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I gave 2.7 last spring before flipping him for Waller and Lindsey this spring.  His value is difficult to assess, because he likely going to have yet another QB change.

 
I'd love to hear the community thoughts on this guy.  

I gave up on him last year.  And lived to regret it.  

My favorite thing to do is find a change point in the season and evaluate the receivers after that point.  For Parker, it's week 7.  That's when Rosen went away.  From week 7 on (11 games), he had 100 targets, 59 Receptions, 973 yards, 7 TD's--over 16 games, you're talking 145 targets, 86 receptions, 1415 yards, 10 TD's

Fitzpatrick has been great for fantasy WR's the last couple of years.  I think we all expect the Dolphins defense to suck yet again.  There should be plenty of volume.  

On the flip side, I'm not 100% sure I trust Parker just yet.  1 great year in 5 gives me pause.  Preston Williams will return and steal some looks.  They'll change to Tua who may not be as good for Parker's fantasy production in week 1. 

 
I don't know which was harder, quitting smoking or quitting Parker.  I'm not taking even a single puff of either, not worth the risk.

 
jm192 said:
I'd love to hear the community thoughts on this guy.  

I gave up on him last year.  And lived to regret it.  

My favorite thing to do is find a change point in the season and evaluate the receivers after that point.  For Parker, it's week 7.  That's when Rosen went away.  From week 7 on (11 games), he had 100 targets, 59 Receptions, 973 yards, 7 TD's--over 16 games, you're talking 145 targets, 86 receptions, 1415 yards, 10 TD's

Fitzpatrick has been great for fantasy WR's the last couple of years.  I think we all expect the Dolphins defense to suck yet again.  There should be plenty of volume.  

On the flip side, I'm not 100% sure I trust Parker just yet.  1 great year in 5 gives me pause.  Preston Williams will return and steal some looks.  They'll change to Tua who may not be as good for Parker's fantasy production in week 1. 
Click to expand...
I've only ever owned him twice, both on teams that I picked him up before he broke out last year, but just before. I don't remember where or how exactly but obviously the community was sour on him so I got him cheap. It wasn't so much that I ever avoided him in the past, it was just that buying opportunity never really presented itself to me on any of my other squads, and I wasn't necessarily targeting him. 

As such I've never really gone through any of the heartache that so many other owners have. That said I've probably always avoided him mostly due to the fact that the Dolphins just have not looked up in his career. There was never a time in the past 5 years that I've been targeting Dolphins in general. That may or may not be fair, but I love what they've been doing the last year+, stocking draft picks and so forth. I think they could make a big leap this year, especially with Brady out of the AFC East. I don't know what to make of the Unicorn or his injury, but a competent 2nd receiver can only help Parker. 

My two spots are one best ball dynasty where I am absolutely loaded at WR and looking to defend my championship in what is (hopefully) about to be our final jackpot season. I also own the Unicorn there so in best ball that's nice, but I also might try to flip that stack and see what I can get. Our rookie/FA draft is coming up. I could use a better TE and maybe an early draft pick and a bump? In my other spot I am pretty weak overall at WR and he is my #1. Most people are burned with him and don't want him so he is hard to trade. The reality is I'll probably just keep starting him and he'll probably be worth it. Like a mid-career breakout guy like Doug Baldwin, but without all the leading hype.

TLDR Dolphins have been terrible for almost all of Parker's career. Competent QB play, coaching, etc., and he could perform as he did last year for a few years to come. So buy high? Lol I know some people just puked in their mouth. As a WR in fantasy you probably just can't justify buying high on anyone. But I'd bet Parker finishes on par with last year.

 
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barackdhouse said:
counterpunch
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Well if I do take a position on him again I would recommend other people do the opposite. 

He has shown the ability to be a great WR for fantasy. Fitzmagic of course helps that and no RB really to speak of as well giving them no other options. Those things will likely change.

Tua I think will be better than Fitzpatrick in time but 2020 is his rookie season, so I wouldn't expect the targets and efficiency to improve when that happens, but if Parker can do well and becomes Tuas main target yt could spell good things in 2021.

For 2020 I would expect Parker to do less due to improved running game and rookie QB starting for a good chunk of this season.

Looking at projections, that is what I am seeing DD and Mike Clay thinking too. DD has Fitz with more PA than Mike does, but Tua with the majority.

Both of them have Parker leading the Dolphins with 70 receptions. For DD he winds up WR 21 for Clay he is WR 27

Parker still has a sub standard career catch rate of 57.6% it took 128 targets last year for him to get 72 receptions. Clay has him getting 120 targets and I would assume DD has him getting a similar number of targets to end up with 70 receptions.

120 x .567 = 68 receptions not 70 so somehow he has Parker improving his efficiency under this scenario which I do not agree with. I can see that happening in 2021 but not with rookie Tua.

For Parker to get 70 receptions at his catch rate requires 124 targets.

 
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Parker has sneaky league winner upside. In 2019 he had 1200+ yards, and now has a better QB option, minimum run game and they drafted OL in the 1st, 2nd, 4th and 6th. It’s not inconceivable for him to push 1500 yards

 
Dolphins coach Brian Flores said DeVante Parker is now a "self motivator".

Parker turned a corner late last season following Preston Williams' ACL tear, finishing as a borderline WR1 during the fantasy playoffs. It appears that Parker changed his approach with the new coaching staff -- that tends to happen when coach Adam Gase leaves -- and it's continued throughout the 2020 offseason. Parker is reportedly stronger entering this season, and there's an obvious path to WR2 production in fantasy if the momentum continues. Consider Parker a solid value in the fifth round of drafts with Williams, who is beginning to return to the practice field, offering upside as a double-digit round flier. Keep in mind that the No. 3 and No. 4 receivers in Miami opted out last week.

SOURCE: Travis Wingfield on Twitter

Aug 20, 2020, 7:30 PM ET
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Dolphins head coach Brian Flores won't offer a timetable for WR DeVante Parker's return from a minor injury. 

Miami Herald beat writers described Parker's ailment as "minor," though it's kept the receiver out of practice for some time. “He’s working every day to get back out there," Flores said. "When you’re out of a couple days, you don’t want to lose them. He’s built up a good amount so that hopefully he can get hopefully right back to where he was.” Parker, if healthy for Week 1, is still a potentially high-volume receiver in an offense with very little wideout depth. 

SOURCE: Miami Herald 

Aug 31, 2020, 9:24 AM ET
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Dolphins WR DeVante Parker (undisclosed) returned to practice on Tuesday.

Coach Brian Flores has kept Parker's injury behind closed doors but has noted that it's only a "minor" hangup. For what it's worth, Parker was spotted practicing in a white compression sleeve on his left thigh/hamstring. Being available for reps this early in the week is a terrific sign for his availability on Sunday, though Parker will file in as a usage-based WR3 given Miami's nightmarish matchup against Stephon Gilmore and the Patriots.

SOURCE: Adam Beasley on Twitter

Sep 8, 2020, 11:37 AM ET
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