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WR Drake London, ATL (2 Viewers)
- Thread starter Faust
- Start date
King of the Jungle
Footballguy
Any thoughts on this guy going into next year? I thought once he got healthy he looked like he belonged and finished strong down the stretch. He was twitchier than I thought and seems to have a good head on his shoulders as far as wanting to get better. Negatives are an unproven QB, a healthy Pitts, a drafted Bijan, and an offense that may set the record for rushes this year.
I love the player and think he will produce between 1000-1100 yards this year. The key will be TDs and he seems like he is built to be a red zone target.
I love the player and think he will produce between 1000-1100 yards this year. The key will be TDs and he seems like he is built to be a red zone target.
pinkstapler
Footballguy
I think he's priced appropriately as a late WR2, somewhere around WR22-26, around the 5th round of drafts. I can see the arguments for his upside, but I wouldn't want to pay assuming he'll get there. TDs are flukey and Pitts is just as much of a RZ target as he is, as is Bijan up the gut, and Ridder is always a risk to run them in himself. The hope is probably that despite their best efforts, their defense isn't much improved over last season. That way they will have to stay passing to an extent to stay in games.
I'm no expert scout. And he looks to have talent but I am leery of any pass catcher on this team. They may be talented (Pitts anyone?) but if no one throws them the ball what use are they? hard to figure them out. I drafted Pitts last two years and both times a let down.
dschuler
Footballguy
I’m very high on London, I have a lot of him in fantasy this year. He had 117 targets with Mariota the vast majority of the season, who only threw the ball on 23 times per game (31st in NFL). Ridder had 25% more pass attempts per game than Mariota, about in line with San Fran. If he averages one more pass attempt per half, which is low considering he only played four games last year, Atlanta would be in the 21-25 range in pass attempts per game. If their offense is any better, he should get more TDs as he is a great red zone target. He’s a steal at his current ADP. I think he’s a lock for a strong WR2 with a potential for low end WR1 upside.
barackdhouse
Footballguy
It is super quiet. I think the FF community thinks Ridder is a scrub but doesn't mind taking London or Pitts in the 4th, Bijan in the 1st.
He is quietly being drafted relatively high and like you point out nobody is talking about him. Not just in these forums but anywhere (or so it seems). I guess the idea is that most people believe in his talent but don't like the situation and need to see Ridder make London viable before crowing about him. In the meantime they don't mind drafting him and keeping their mouth shut. IDK.
I have the same volume concerns as everybody but I actually believe in Ridder and my biggest concern is Arthur Smith.
zamboni
Footballguy
I get the volume concerns in a run-heavy offense, but this passing game is perhaps as concentrated as any other team (KC excluded) in the league between London and Pitts. If Ridder is even halfway credible with his accuracy, those targets can really result in strong production for London.
barackdhouse
Footballguy
Yes and that is the thing. I'm somewhat concerned about them using Bijan a lot in the passing game but that really is a different slice of the pie. Downfield it's London and Pitts.
I like Hollins as a last round flyer in best ball when I stack Atlanta but London and Pitts should each get ~25% target shares I would think.
Very true but surely some of that is also London developing more and becoming more comfortable in the NFL right? He was the only receiving option they had and did solid as a rookie.
jaylasoul14
Footballguy
It's dangerous to extrapolate but that being said London paced 150 targets in Ridders 4 starts with that volume I don't see how he doesn't finish top 15 Wr
He'll get his.
There will be infuriating weeks probably but he'll get his.
Arthur is a total matchup OC and London is a special athlete that can win most but like if they played the Jets- he's probably getting 3 passes that day. Pitts or Mack or Patterson etc could have a nice matchup so they'll get theirs that week.
It's manageable for FF. People may not like it, but it is.
London looks like a future star. Smith in Philly too. Maybe a bit thin and maybe need to be a bit tougher and expectant of rough play by DBs, but ...it's all there. I think we just get carried away with Jefferson and Chase playing extremely well day one. London checks every box for me.
I think it's late summer and you guys are overthinking his piece of the pie stat. Do you do that with any other team's top WR?
There's like a dozen things I overthink so I hope this lands sincerely and not insulting.
barackdhouse
Footballguy
I'm not sure there is any disagreement here. I think we all agree London is solid. We have some reservations I suppose but I can't name a single player even in the first round of fantasy drafts that doesn't have some concerns. I don't think anyone is saying let's fade London. You're cool man, nothing insulting just not sure we aren't all on the same page but just saying it in different ways. I know you weren't quoting me here I just thought I'd reply anyway.
dschuler
Footballguy
Ridder had the highest percentage of his throws go the RBs in the NFL already at almost 24%, a full percentage point higher than 2nd (Chargers Herbert). Just over half of his throws were to London and the RBs. He can’t really surpass that RB percentage total, and was probably partially a result of it being his first four games ever. London had 32 targets and 2 TDs in Ridders only 4 starts. With no improvement YoY, you’re looking at close to 140 targets, 80-90 catches and more TDs. Any incremental improvement which I would expect will only raise these numbers further.
Skipdog77
Footballguy
IMO that makes what London did even more impressive. Defenses didn't have any other receiving threats to focus on other than him, and he still put up good numbers after Ridder took over.
The Frankman
Footballguy
dipandglide
Footballguy
Drake Hater
Footballguy
Big hype for this guy. Will be interesting if/when he can bounce back.
Smack Tripper
Footballguy
Great buy low
FarFromHome
Footballguy
Would be hard to rely on any wr/te catching balls from Ridder and what Atlanta wants to do on offense.
Jacob's Ladder
Footballguy
Boom, bust, I don't care. I just wonder WTF the Falcons are thinking? Absolutely unacceptable to draft a TE and WR top 10 and the WR gets 1 target in the 1st game of his 2nd season while the TE gets 2 targets in the 1st game of this 3rd season. You draft guys like this to help your team. You draft guys like this to sell jerseys. I'd be a little miffed as a GM if my high priced offense was being utilized as the highest paid decoys in the NFL. I get it, they won, but c'mon. They beat the 1st or 2nd worst team in the NFL, at home, facing a rookie QB in his first NFL game. I'd love to be a fly on the wall while ATL gameplans. I'm thoroughly confused by the disconnect between the draft and the games.
He looked right on par with Wilson and Olave whenever they actually featured him.
Arthur Smith is weird. Like, I get the coaches don't care about fantasy, that's fine, but like, you spent the 4th pick and the 8th pick on Pitts and London, if you aren't featuring them, what was the point? There were plenty of great OL, or defensive players there.
Its too early to worry about Bijan, but it wouldn't be shocking if it applied to him too.
I thought early this off-season he was a strong breakout candidate but several weeks ago the beat writer for the Athletic did usage predictions and IIRC tabbed London for 95 targets, had Pitts down for 90. Both of those were way to low to support the ADP of these two and it scared me off both of them even if it was just one person's prediction.
I'll join the chorus of saying I don't understand why such high picks were paid to these two, and have been saying it for awhile. I know they got a plan to run the ball and play good D and that just might be good enough to win that division. If they do Arthur Smith will be lauded for a great job of coaching by many for this "positionless" style of football and doing things differently. I'll still say I don't get it and it was a tremendous waste of prime resources.
The incoming crop of QB's looks outstanding next year. Because the Falcons goal seems to be to compete in the worst division in football they are going to win enough games that they won't be sniffing the top two for sure and maybe a good amount deeper. But even if they address QB this off-season, you just wasted 3 year of Pitts and 2 years of London on their rookie contracts. And as Travdogg said no telling on Bijan but he is at at least easier for a sub-standard QB like Ridder to get the ball to.
None of it makes sense but one thing I'm going to add, and I'm not sure if credit should go to Smith or it's just a huge credit to the unselfishness of the players but it's kind of amazing that no one in Atlanta , at least that I can recall, is complaining about their lack of usage. That strikes me as a combo of unselfish players and a coach who has done a good job of explaining and communicating the roles he has for players. Still neither that, or winning that sorry division, make it make any sense to me to use the resources they used these "positionless" weapons so they can mainly rely on a 5th round RB as one of if not the major pieces of the offense.
I'll join the chorus of saying I don't understand why such high picks were paid to these two, and have been saying it for awhile. I know they got a plan to run the ball and play good D and that just might be good enough to win that division. If they do Arthur Smith will be lauded for a great job of coaching by many for this "positionless" style of football and doing things differently. I'll still say I don't get it and it was a tremendous waste of prime resources.
The incoming crop of QB's looks outstanding next year. Because the Falcons goal seems to be to compete in the worst division in football they are going to win enough games that they won't be sniffing the top two for sure and maybe a good amount deeper. But even if they address QB this off-season, you just wasted 3 year of Pitts and 2 years of London on their rookie contracts. And as Travdogg said no telling on Bijan but he is at at least easier for a sub-standard QB like Ridder to get the ball to.
None of it makes sense but one thing I'm going to add, and I'm not sure if credit should go to Smith or it's just a huge credit to the unselfishness of the players but it's kind of amazing that no one in Atlanta , at least that I can recall, is complaining about their lack of usage. That strikes me as a combo of unselfish players and a coach who has done a good job of explaining and communicating the roles he has for players. Still neither that, or winning that sorry division, make it make any sense to me to use the resources they used these "positionless" weapons so they can mainly rely on a 5th round RB as one of if not the major pieces of the offense.
Alex P Keaton
Footballguy
Wait, did they win this week?
ignatiusjreilly
Footballguy
Craziest thing about it is that one of the reasons they have such a run-heavy attack is because they don't have a legit QB to throw the ball. And one reason they don't have a legit QB is because they spent their last three Top 10 picks on skill position players instead of QBs. (Granted, from those three drafts, the best QB they passed on was Fields, followed by Mac, Pickett and Leavis. Not exactly the Bears passing on Mahomes)
stillfeelme
Footballguy
The GM and the coach are not aligned on resources and teambuilding and offensive strategy. They could win the division playing this way though but they could have used their cap in a better way.
zamboni
Footballguy
I don’t fault them for not drafting a top QB. That said, they could have gotten one of the better FAs like Carr or Jimmy G, who are no world beaters, but can manage an offense and deliver the ball to their playmakers. Not sure if the Lamar trade talks were real, but that would have been a bonanza.
dipandglide
Footballguy
Heineke will be their starter sooner rather than later
Jacob's Ladder
Footballguy
For all those calling for Heineke, this isn't a QB thing. Play-calling is beyond conservative. Playing like we're in the 1980's. I'm convinced Smith would be playing ugly bully ball even if he had Patrick Mahomes in there at QB.
Exactly. He is a terrible coach who rode the coat tails of Derrick Henry to this job ….
Pretty soon everyone will figure out that ridder is not good and put 9 in the box and they will lose a ton… Atleast I hope so that he gets fired and the falcons play normal offense lol
King of the Jungle
Footballguy
I know it is early, but tough to see talent wasted. They will run into tougher competition this year so we will see what happens. Buy low in dynasty, pray in redraft.
zamboni
Footballguy
Fair assessment. I have London and Pitts, so color me concerned for this year. Most figured that there will be some upward passing regression this year. All that said, it's just one game and it's possible that game script against Carolina called for a heavy dose of running. Can understand though when you have Bijan and Allgeier back there - why wouldn't you want to run so much if you can?
King of the Jungle
Footballguy
I think that is really it. In games that they can run the ball at a high clip they will. It will take them falling behind to alter that strategy. Which begs the question that has been ask many times…if you prefer to run the ball every down…why spend two very high draft picks on a receiver and a pass catching tight end? It does not make a whole lot of sense.
zamboni
Footballguy
Reasonable questions, but to be fair, Allgeier was an unexpected gem and Bijan fell into their lap this year after London and Pitts were already in the fold. Smith only cares about winning games not fantasy points, which stinks for us as owners, but does make a lot of sense.
King of the Jungle
Footballguy
They really do have a cake walk schedule that should not put them in a pass heavy mode. I get not caring about FF, but if you want to run the ball at a historic clip invest in oline and defense. At some point no matter how team oriented these skill guys are they are going to grow tired of not contributing. It is early and I don’t anticipate London having too many zero catch games, however it is not looking good for him this year unfortunately for those that drafted him.
Ar some poin as another poster brought up, is that you an only run heavy for so long before the Def coordinators make that a priority. Which I think will start this this week.
That's what kept him on my bench, otherwise I was ready for Smith to make amends and get him the ball.
