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WR Gabriel Davis, BUF (3 Viewers)
- Thread starter Zyphros
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Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
barackdhouse
Footballguy
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
They say history is the best teacher. Also something about those who fail to learn from mistakes being doomed to repeat them.
I'm sure that's not relevant here though.
barackdhouse
Footballguy
Yeah I have only seen one actual trade where a 1st was involved. It wasn't me.
I had 18 shares of him in FFPC leagues at the end of the season and have traded away two shares and sold four teams that had him on it. I can only speculate but I *think* having him helped sell them.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
They say history is the best teacher. Also something about those who fail to learn from mistakes being doomed to repeat them.
I'm sure that's not relevant here though.
2021
1.10 Moore, Elijah (NYJ, WR) (R10)
1.12 Toney, Kadarius (NYG, WR) (R12)
2.1 Moore, Rondale (ARI, WR) (R13)
2.2 Marshall, Terrace (CAR, WR) (R14)
2020
1.11 Claypool, Chase (PIT, WR, Age: 22)® (R11)
2.1 Aiyuk, Brandon (SFO, WR, Age: 22)® (R13)
2.2 Reagor, Jalen (PHI, WR, Age: 21)® (R14)
2.3 Mims, Denzel (NYJ, WR, Age: 23)® (R15)
2.4 Pittman, Michael (IND, WR, Age: 23)® (R16)
2019
1.11 Brown, Marquise (BAL, WR, Age: 22)® (R11)
1.12 Samuel, Deebo (SFO, WR, Age: 23)® (R12)
2.3 Williams, Preston (MIA, WR)® (R15)
2.4 Campbell, Parris (IND, WR, Age: 22)® (R16)
2.6 Arcega-Whiteside, JJ (PHI, WR)® (R18)
2.8 Johnson, Diontae (PIT, WR)® (R20)
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candian fantasy guy
Footballguy
Was any of those sold teams a SF league? Maybe had R Wilson, Stafford and Tanehill as QB’s? I have purchased a few
barackdhouse
Footballguy
Yeah 3 of them were SF. Had none of those QBs.Was any of those sold teams a SF league? Maybe had R Wilson, Stafford and Tanehill as QB’s? I have purchased a few
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Opinions may vary, but IMO, 2019, 2020 and 2021 are all better WR draft classes than 2022.
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At the top, but the depth of 2022 is spectacular with some guys who will have an opportunity to break out as rookies due to their ... wait for it ... ability to run routes well.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
barackdhouse
Footballguy
There are almost always hits available thru the turn of the 1st/2nd round and even later. There are misses there as well.
I can't fault anyone for preferring the pick over Davis. It is a perfectly reasonable take that reflects market.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Of course. Some years it seems easier to identify the hits in advance though.
I don't fault them either - but if we're in the context of "Yes I would deal Gabe Davis for pick 1.07 -> 2.01" it seems very fair to ask which of those players one believes will have more upside than Davis.
The topic is Gabe Davis. To prefer the pick, one has to believe there's a target there that will be more valuable (assuming spending the pick and not acquiring it to make it part of a larger trade package on value alone, which we can all agree is a thing that happens, though irrelevant to this discussion).
barackdhouse
Footballguy
I mildly disagree that the target has to have a name. For me it can just be a range of picks and the faith that a hit will be there. If there is a trade partner (right now, not later during the draft) that for whatever reason might make a better deal with his 1.11 or 2.02 than this other guy that has 2.01, then I don't necessarily care about the specific name(s) that might correspond. It is never going to play out exactly as planned anyway.
If I'm not a Davis believer I make that trade (I try to get more than 2.01) today based on my experience of consistently finding those hits in that range. As we get closer to the NFL draft and then the rookie draft the prices of picks goes up. But by the time I'm OTC with those picks that I had faith in, I *should* have a very clear picture of "my guys". I have consistently hit there. I've had missed but seriously if I wasn't a believer I would be flipping Davis like crazy. I don't care what the rookie ADP ranks look just yet. Give me draft capital for guys I don't like all day.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
All fair. For me, I am a believer, and do have faith that I'll get return on Davis. Especially considering what I paid (very little).
In that light, I would also kick myself forever if Davis does have that season resembling ~80/1000/10 and the rookie I picked either sucks or doesn't come close to that.
foxco
Footballguy
If I'm a betting man right now I'd take the over on those stats, think he's gonna have a real nice season. Course they could sign/draft a big name but Davis has done nothing to indicate to me that he isn't going to be a big part of their offense. He's good.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
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BigJim®
Footballguy
It was tongue in cheek. I've had my share of flops drafting 1.10-1.12. Still hopeful Terrace Marshall doesn't become one of them. Surprisingly I've had better luck, for whatever reason, drafting in the 2nd round than late 1st.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
slightly off-topic, but last year mid-season I was trying to acquire Marshall from the owner in my league. I couldn't get him to budge on any inclusion of him, and in fact at one point he said, "if you keep including Marshall in these talks, I'm just not interested". He was untouchable.
He's since softened on his position on selling Marshall as have I on buying. Things change fast in the NFL.
On March 19, in a 1QB FFPC league, Davis was traded for Trevor Lawrence, Trey Lance and the 4.03.
For context: Teams in FFPC leagues have to cut down to 16 players (including a defense and kicker) by the end of March, so these deals are fairly common. The guy who traded away the QBs has Josh Allen.
For context: Teams in FFPC leagues have to cut down to 16 players (including a defense and kicker) by the end of March, so these deals are fairly common. The guy who traded away the QBs has Josh Allen.
barackdhouse
Footballguy
The guy who traded away the QBs took Lawrence at 1.11 and Lance at 2.03, which was curious, because he already had Allen coming off a breakout season. By FFPC rookie ADP, Lawrence was a late-first pick and Lance a mid-second.
mcintyre1
Footballguy
Question about Davis's trade value in a bit of a weirder league context. It's a 12 team league with really big rosters, Superflex IDP and 16 total starters w/ 9 on offense 7 on defense. I'm taking over a team that earned the 1.01 and needs a lot of WR help overall and has Davis.
I'm honestly not a big Davis believer and I've got another owner who has tried a few times to get him from me, but not really sending great stuff. The best package I think I could probably get is the 3.01 and a later 3rd back in this draft. Anyone think that's good enough with this league setup? You can typically get some pretty premium IDP players in the 3rd, and that is probably the direction I'd go.
I'm not really sold on Davis's long term value, I don't think he'll ever be more than the #2 guy and I'm not a fan of holding those types of players in general barring some really specific circumstances (very high WR production from two guys) and I don't really see Davis as that kind of player.
I'm honestly not a big Davis believer and I've got another owner who has tried a few times to get him from me, but not really sending great stuff. The best package I think I could probably get is the 3.01 and a later 3rd back in this draft. Anyone think that's good enough with this league setup? You can typically get some pretty premium IDP players in the 3rd, and that is probably the direction I'd go.
I'm not really sold on Davis's long term value, I don't think he'll ever be more than the #2 guy and I'm not a fan of holding those types of players in general barring some really specific circumstances (very high WR production from two guys) and I don't really see Davis as that kind of player.
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barackdhouse
Footballguy
I hate holding guys I don't believe in but that is nowhere close to enough. Just my ten cents. If you have any other deals you're working on or thinking about doing with someone else, try including Davis and getting better value coming back by packaging him. Maybe.
That seems really light even in an IDP league. A lot of this hinges on how important are IDP's in your league. Do they score on par with offense? If not then this is definitely not worth it. If you can build your team around IDP's and marquee guys are available at 3.01 then maybe it makes sense. I would have to think, though, that you can do better than 3.01
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Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
I do not think a 3rd and a future 3rd is good enough, no.
Your points are well-taken, but I would suggest that being the WR2 in that Bills offense > being the WR2 in any other offense.
Byron Pringle is the WR2 on the Bears, for example. I wouldn’t say he’s equal to Davis.
I would counter for a 2nd round pick. Preferably 2023. Tell him that’s your best offer. See if they bite.
mcintyre1
Footballguy
Thanks -- top IDP guys are scoring in the low 200's and absolute max would probably be 250ish. So, at best around the level of the WR14-WR24 in this league. So, potentially higher than what I'd really expect Davis to be putting up, but I think you and @barackdhouse are right that this feels light for the perceived value others have on Davis. I'll probably hold on to him at least until close to the draft. I've got him on the block but there hasn't been a ton of interest yet.
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rockaction
Footballguy
Count me among those who don't think that the 3.01 and a later third is enough. It is SF and IDP, but you're probably looking at some real misses at the 3.01. For context, you might...say...draft a guy like Willie Gay at 3.01 or something like that.
I did that. Point is, that's still pretty far back in the draft for Davis's value.
Using FBG PPR scoring, the WR2 in that Bills offense was WR40 last season, behind the WR2 for the Buccaneers (WR13), Chargers (WR14), Seahawks(!) (WR16), Bengals (WR24), Cowboys (WR27), Vikings (WR28), WR3 for the Bengals (WR31), Patriots(!!) (WR32), Rams (WR36), Steelers (WR38), and the MOTHER####ING WR3 for the Vikings (WR39).Hot Sauce Guy said:
You may believe that the WR2 for the Bills is the greatest potential secondary receiver in the league, but unless Davis takes an unfathomable leap this season along with the rest of the team's passing offense, it's just not happening.
I mean seriously, the Bills WR2 was outscored by 12 TEs!
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
I’m estimating for 2022, not focusing on 2021 with an oft-middling/injured Emmanuel Sanders. The point was “full time as a Josh Allen target this year”, not that the Bills have some historic precedent penchant for the WR2.
Seems somewhat obvious in my post.
Not to accuse you of cherry picking, but you’re totally cherry picking here. All due respect, but it’s fallacious.
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barackdhouse
Footballguy
Cmon. It's not a stretch for a guy with 18 TDs before age 23 going into year 3 is it? Really?!
Unfathomable? Fine if you say you don't think he will emerge but unfathomable?
You throw the ball to where the receiver is going to be. Not where he was.* We are projecting forward not looking backward.
*curl routes I know I know
It’s a stretch for an offense that doesn’t produce WR2s at the top of the fantasy standings to start doing so out of nowhere.
BigJim®
Footballguy
Unfathomable? That's what you're going with here?
JMHO, would love to better understand how they tabulated WR2 for the Bills in 2021. There really was no guy when Emmanuel Sanders somewhat fizzled. I guess you'd consider Beasley and his 82 recs as the WR2. In terms of targets, Beasley got 112 targets, Sanders 72, and Davis 63. And now Beasley and Sanders are gone, and 184 targets are up for grabs. Who do you have getting those targets?
What in Davis’s career suggests that he himself is more than oft-middling/injured?
He had 10 games last season under 10 points with 4 zeroes
BigJim®
Footballguy
Well, there's this one guy who seemed to 'earn' greater role in the most recent Bills game... sort of a historic performance type deal. Could be a factor in the decision that bringing back Beasley and Sanders was not a priority. Probably unfathomable though that he'd get that opportunity, so no point in naming him.
ghostguy123
Footballguy
Was this the same guy who blew up in the 2020 playoffs and then mostly disappeared from the entire 2021 regular season?
Shawnky
Footballguy
He also had Sanders and Beasley there. I for 1 am glad I took him as my WR4 in a startup before last season. No way I’m trading him him 2.01.
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ghostguy123
Footballguy
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
He was the WR 4 who’s only started a handful of games, yet has a mountain of TDs & a team that loves him. And he’s never been injured or middling - when given targets he’s produced.
if say that’s a pretty good start
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Yes, with Sanders out, the WR 4 became a WR3, as sometimes happens. Then Davis actually participated in games. He had a pretty good one there at the end of the playoffs. You should Google it.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
It’s an even bigger stretch to attempt to make this point based on the thinnest of premises. Your implied if/then statement (if, based on these wonky cherry-picked numbers from 2021 where Sanders was hurt/sucked, then the Bills don’t use their WR2) is like tissue paper that got wet, then was hung out to dry on a 110 degree, 0% humidity day.
C’mon man.
Maybe in this particular chicken / egg scenario, they didn’t use their WR2 as much in 2021 because he was hurt/ineffective?
At least I admit when I’m doing a schtick.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
barackdhouse
Footballguy
The last 10 or more years are full of high passing offenses that supported 2 multiple FF relevant WRs. The fact that Josh Allen hasn't done it yet is a reflection of the depth chart he has had. Davis is super young and probably wasn't ready to be that 2nd guy. I think he is now. Others don't - that is fine but "out of nowhere" or "unfathomable" seems pretty wild to me for such a common occurrence.
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Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
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