WR Jameson Williams, DET (4 Viewers)

[Joe Bryant]

Thanks for the feedback on this. Justin had an issue on the att - completion formula that he identified after this and corrected. Thanks for the headsup there.

 

[Joe Bryant]

In the future, the fastest way to send me something is likely a direct message. If you see something, please give as much detail as possible with links and exactly what seems off.

We get a lot of "thing is broken" and that's tough to figure out.

The fastest of all ways though is going to www.footballguys.com/help and click the "contact support" and include the same information you'd send me. That bypasses me which is going to likely mean a faster resolution. Thanks.

 

[barackdhouse]

@Joe Bryant I'd like to hear a defense from the FBG team (whoever might be willing / or point me to the content that addresses it) on the question of Amon-Ra and LaPorta either maintaining or increasing/decreasing their targets from 2023 in light of how that affects what Jamo might do this year and subsequently his projections from the various FBG team members.

I've stated consistently this offseason that I think LaPorta is ranked way too high and going way too high in drafts, not because he isn't a stud or won't eat, but for the same reasons Jamo seems to be ranked so low. That is to say - there are so many mouths to feed in Detroit. Well, ok so LaPorta has already done it and Jamo hasn't, but all the drumbeats point pretty emphatically to Jamo at least being more involved this year and making a developmental leap and so forth. And even the consensus FBG rankers seem to agree with that part. So here is my main question I'd like to see addressed:

Even if we assume Jamo takes a step and is more involved but maybe less than what some of us would like to see, by mathematical definition that production would have to come at the expense of someone else if we're going off 2023 as a baseline. Who? Well, I've stated it isn't going to be Amon-Ra because he is the true alpha there no debate*. I think we can expect similar production from Gibbs/Monty. There are some targets vacated by Josh Reynolds but don't we have to look at LaPorta here a bit more seriously? As much as I might criticize the rankings of Jamo, I would argue that LaPorta maintaining the same level of targets as last year is less defendable because we know they want to involve Jamo more. In the end I suppose this is more of a LaPorta question than a Jamo one, but I feel it is an angle that the market is drastically messing up. And I really hope I'm right lol.

TLDR even if Jamo takes a step that is less than some of us want it will still come at the expense of LaPorta

*Or is Amon-Ra the one that will suffer a small notch?

It's more a Goff issue

Not when you look at things from a target share perspective. If the offense as a whole does more/less/same as last year is one question yes. What I'm saying is that any positive growth statistically and on the field from Jamo is going to come from LaPorta. Regardless of whether Detroit Offense does more/less/same in aggregate. And I've said that a bunch. It may very well be that Jamo doesn't get to the level of being consistently startable in fantasy, but if all the reasons people are using against him hold true, they have to hold true against LaPorta as well (to a degree anyway). And I've shown above (granted it was pages ago now) how they can have a season far less than historic and if Jamo eats into LaPorta even just a little bit and gets into that upper teen% share and in a perfect world all the way up to 20%, it really wouldn't require a big dip by LaPorta.

I feel like anytime anyone says "it would have to have everything go right and they'd have to have a historic season" I'm like no they wouldn't not if other players get fewer targets. The entire narrative of Jamo making any noise whatsoever is that it would have to come at the expense of someone else in the pie. Whether that pie is bigger smaller or the same as last year let's be real and acknowledge this offense is going to run plays and they're going to score points. Anyway, I've more than said my piece. It has been like pulling teeth to get someone to defend LaPorta being ranked so high and Jamo so low. It's a gigantic disparity that has absolutely zero to do with Jared Goff.

Even when you look at it from a target share. You have one projector, projecting 200 less attempts. 15% of 600 = 90 > 20% of 400 = 80

You're not hearing me. What I'm saying is that even if Goff and all DET QBs only have 200 total attempts (I know that is absurdly low), any kind of boost in share from Jamo MUST come from LaPorta. That is the premise I'm trying to put out there to be challenged. Nobody has countered it yet. I've repeatedly said even if the pie is smaller.

 

[barackdhouse]

@Joe Bryant I'd like to hear a defense from the FBG team (whoever might be willing / or point me to the content that addresses it) on the question of Amon-Ra and LaPorta either maintaining or increasing/decreasing their targets from 2023 in light of how that affects what Jamo might do this year and subsequently his projections from the various FBG team members.

I've stated consistently this offseason that I think LaPorta is ranked way too high and going way too high in drafts, not because he isn't a stud or won't eat, but for the same reasons Jamo seems to be ranked so low. That is to say - there are so many mouths to feed in Detroit. Well, ok so LaPorta has already done it and Jamo hasn't, but all the drumbeats point pretty emphatically to Jamo at least being more involved this year and making a developmental leap and so forth. And even the consensus FBG rankers seem to agree with that part. So here is my main question I'd like to see addressed:

Even if we assume Jamo takes a step and is more involved but maybe less than what some of us would like to see, by mathematical definition that production would have to come at the expense of someone else if we're going off 2023 as a baseline. Who? Well, I've stated it isn't going to be Amon-Ra because he is the true alpha there no debate*. I think we can expect similar production from Gibbs/Monty. There are some targets vacated by Josh Reynolds but don't we have to look at LaPorta here a bit more seriously? As much as I might criticize the rankings of Jamo, I would argue that LaPorta maintaining the same level of targets as last year is less defendable because we know they want to involve Jamo more. In the end I suppose this is more of a LaPorta question than a Jamo one, but I feel it is an angle that the market is drastically messing up. And I really hope I'm right lol.

TLDR even if Jamo takes a step that is less than some of us want it will still come at the expense of LaPorta

*Or is Amon-Ra the one that will suffer a small notch?

It's more a Goff issue

Not when you look at things from a target share perspective. If the offense as a whole does more/less/same as last year is one question yes. What I'm saying is that any positive growth statistically and on the field from Jamo is going to come from LaPorta. Regardless of whether Detroit Offense does more/less/same in aggregate. And I've said that a bunch. It may very well be that Jamo doesn't get to the level of being consistently startable in fantasy, but if all the reasons people are using against him hold true, they have to hold true against LaPorta as well (to a degree anyway). And I've shown above (granted it was pages ago now) how they can have a season far less than historic and if Jamo eats into LaPorta even just a little bit and gets into that upper teen% share and in a perfect world all the way up to 20%, it really wouldn't require a big dip by LaPorta.

I feel like anytime anyone says "it would have to have everything go right and they'd have to have a historic season" I'm like no they wouldn't not if other players get fewer targets. The entire narrative of Jamo making any noise whatsoever is that it would have to come at the expense of someone else in the pie. Whether that pie is bigger smaller or the same as last year let's be real and acknowledge this offense is going to run plays and they're going to score points. Anyway, I've more than said my piece. It has been like pulling teeth to get someone to defend LaPorta being ranked so high and Jamo so low. It's a gigantic disparity that has absolutely zero to do with Jared Goff.

Yes it's unconceivable to people that Jamo could eat into the targets of LaPorta and even Amon-Ra.

It should be conceivable and everyone seems to be assuming it isn't.

 

[Maurile Tremblay]

2024

Tremblay

16.6

395.0

603.0

4357

24.9

15.6

33.0

50

1.3

1.0

Projecting yards per attempt to drop from 7.6 to 7.2. Projecting a 17% regression in TDs.

Those projected regressions are intentional. I'll address the TDs.

Last year, the Lions scored 461 points, with just 105 of those points (22.3%) coming from the kicker position. Over multiple seasons, the league-wide share of kicker points is about 35%.

This year, the over-under for total points by the Lions is 435. I am projecting that a more normal 32.7% of those points will come from the kicker position.

The reduction in expected total points combined with the increase in expected kicker share of those points results in a projected reduction in offensive touchdowns, including a reduction in passing touchdowns.

Goff threw 30 touchdowns last season on 606 attempts, a TD percentage of 4.95%. The league-wide average over multiple seasons is about 3.95%, so Goff was a significant outlier. I assign an inherent TD% of 4.45% to Goff -- significantly above the NFL average, but also significantly below last year's figure. When I adjust his inherent TD% based on the characteristics of the players around him (his RBs are particularly effective goal-line runners, for example), it further reduces his TD% down to 4.13% -- still above average, but not by nearly as much.

I might be significantly off in my projections, but that is some of the thinking that went into them.

 

[Chaka]

Saint had 164 targets last year, I see it around 150 this year.

Yes it's unconceivable to people that Jamo could eat into the targets of LaPorta and even Amon-Ra.

cool, cool

Opinions vary, eh.

I project St Brown with a range of 181-193 targets ~

130-1700-12 WR1 overall

fight me

Hey, we're just talking ball here.....so, ya know, everybody just calm down.

ARSB is the #1 WR on my board too.

 

[BassNBrew]

2024

Tremblay

16.6

395.0

603.0

4357

24.9

15.6

33.0

50

1.3

1.0

Projecting yards per attempt to drop from 7.6 to 7.2. Projecting a 17% regression in TDs.

Those projected regressions are intentional. I'll address the TDs.

Last year, the Lions scored 461 points, with just 105 of those points (22.3%) coming from the kicker position. Over multiple seasons, the league-wide share of kicker points is about 35%.

This year, the over-under for total points by the Lions is 435. I am projecting that a more normal 32.7% of those points will come from the kicker position.

The reduction in expected total points combined with the increase in expected kicker share of those points results in a projected reduction in offensive touchdowns, including a reduction in passing touchdowns.

Goff threw 30 touchdowns last season on 606 attempts, a TD percentage of 4.95%. The league-wide average over multiple seasons is about 3.95%, so Goff was a significant outlier. I assign an inherent TD% of 4.45% to Goff -- significantly above the NFL average, but also significantly below last year's figure. When I adjust his inherent TD% based on the characteristics of the players around him (his RBs are particularly effective goal-line runners, for example), it further reduces his TD% down to 4.13% -- still above average, but not by nearly as much.

I might be significantly off in my projections, but that is some of the thinking that went into them.

Glad I took Fields in a late round after reading this.

Excellent points brough up by MT here that could easily blunt Jameson popping this year.

 

[BassNBrew]

@Joe Bryant I'd like to hear a defense from the FBG team (whoever might be willing / or point me to the content that addresses it) on the question of Amon-Ra and LaPorta either maintaining or increasing/decreasing their targets from 2023 in light of how that affects what Jamo might do this year and subsequently his projections from the various FBG team members.

I've stated consistently this offseason that I think LaPorta is ranked way too high and going way too high in drafts, not because he isn't a stud or won't eat, but for the same reasons Jamo seems to be ranked so low. That is to say - there are so many mouths to feed in Detroit. Well, ok so LaPorta has already done it and Jamo hasn't, but all the drumbeats point pretty emphatically to Jamo at least being more involved this year and making a developmental leap and so forth. And even the consensus FBG rankers seem to agree with that part. So here is my main question I'd like to see addressed:

Even if we assume Jamo takes a step and is more involved but maybe less than what some of us would like to see, by mathematical definition that production would have to come at the expense of someone else if we're going off 2023 as a baseline. Who? Well, I've stated it isn't going to be Amon-Ra because he is the true alpha there no debate*. I think we can expect similar production from Gibbs/Monty. There are some targets vacated by Josh Reynolds but don't we have to look at LaPorta here a bit more seriously? As much as I might criticize the rankings of Jamo, I would argue that LaPorta maintaining the same level of targets as last year is less defendable because we know they want to involve Jamo more. In the end I suppose this is more of a LaPorta question than a Jamo one, but I feel it is an angle that the market is drastically messing up. And I really hope I'm right lol.

TLDR even if Jamo takes a step that is less than some of us want it will still come at the expense of LaPorta

*Or is Amon-Ra the one that will suffer a small notch?

It's more a Goff issue

Not when you look at things from a target share perspective. If the offense as a whole does more/less/same as last year is one question yes. What I'm saying is that any positive growth statistically and on the field from Jamo is going to come from LaPorta. Regardless of whether Detroit Offense does more/less/same in aggregate. And I've said that a bunch. It may very well be that Jamo doesn't get to the level of being consistently startable in fantasy, but if all the reasons people are using against him hold true, they have to hold true against LaPorta as well (to a degree anyway). And I've shown above (granted it was pages ago now) how they can have a season far less than historic and if Jamo eats into LaPorta even just a little bit and gets into that upper teen% share and in a perfect world all the way up to 20%, it really wouldn't require a big dip by LaPorta.

I feel like anytime anyone says "it would have to have everything go right and they'd have to have a historic season" I'm like no they wouldn't not if other players get fewer targets. The entire narrative of Jamo making any noise whatsoever is that it would have to come at the expense of someone else in the pie. Whether that pie is bigger smaller or the same as last year let's be real and acknowledge this offense is going to run plays and they're going to score points. Anyway, I've more than said my piece. It has been like pulling teeth to get someone to defend LaPorta being ranked so high and Jamo so low. It's a gigantic disparity that has absolutely zero to do with Jared Goff.

Even when you look at it from a target share. You have one projector, projecting 200 less attempts. 15% of 600 = 90 > 20% of 400 = 80

You're not hearing me. What I'm saying is that even if Goff and all DET QBs only have 200 total attempts (I know that is absurdly low), any kind of boost in share from Jamo MUST come from LaPorta. That is the premise I'm trying to put out there to be challenged. Nobody has countered it yet. I've repeatedly said even if the pie is smaller.

Understand. I was replying to the general discussion of this thread that the increase would come from increase Goff production. The FBG projectors generally don't see this, hence the low Jameson ranking.

 

[InDitkaWeTrust]

@Joe Bryant I'd like to hear a defense from the FBG team (whoever might be willing / or point me to the content that addresses it) on the question of Amon-Ra and LaPorta either maintaining or increasing/decreasing their targets from 2023 in light of how that affects what Jamo might do this year and subsequently his projections from the various FBG team members.

I've stated consistently this offseason that I think LaPorta is ranked way too high and going way too high in drafts, not because he isn't a stud or won't eat, but for the same reasons Jamo seems to be ranked so low. That is to say - there are so many mouths to feed in Detroit. Well, ok so LaPorta has already done it and Jamo hasn't, but all the drumbeats point pretty emphatically to Jamo at least being more involved this year and making a developmental leap and so forth. And even the consensus FBG rankers seem to agree with that part. So here is my main question I'd like to see addressed:

Even if we assume Jamo takes a step and is more involved but maybe less than what some of us would like to see, by mathematical definition that production would have to come at the expense of someone else if we're going off 2023 as a baseline. Who? Well, I've stated it isn't going to be Amon-Ra because he is the true alpha there no debate*. I think we can expect similar production from Gibbs/Monty. There are some targets vacated by Josh Reynolds but don't we have to look at LaPorta here a bit more seriously? As much as I might criticize the rankings of Jamo, I would argue that LaPorta maintaining the same level of targets as last year is less defendable because we know they want to involve Jamo more. In the end I suppose this is more of a LaPorta question than a Jamo one, but I feel it is an angle that the market is drastically messing up. And I really hope I'm right lol.

TLDR even if Jamo takes a step that is less than some of us want it will still come at the expense of LaPorta

*Or is Amon-Ra the one that will suffer a small notch?

It's more a Goff issue

Not when you look at things from a target share perspective. If the offense as a whole does more/less/same as last year is one question yes. What I'm saying is that any positive growth statistically and on the field from Jamo is going to come from LaPorta. Regardless of whether Detroit Offense does more/less/same in aggregate. And I've said that a bunch. It may very well be that Jamo doesn't get to the level of being consistently startable in fantasy, but if all the reasons people are using against him hold true, they have to hold true against LaPorta as well (to a degree anyway). And I've shown above (granted it was pages ago now) how they can have a season far less than historic and if Jamo eats into LaPorta even just a little bit and gets into that upper teen% share and in a perfect world all the way up to 20%, it really wouldn't require a big dip by LaPorta.

I feel like anytime anyone says "it would have to have everything go right and they'd have to have a historic season" I'm like no they wouldn't not if other players get fewer targets. The entire narrative of Jamo making any noise whatsoever is that it would have to come at the expense of someone else in the pie. Whether that pie is bigger smaller or the same as last year let's be real and acknowledge this offense is going to run plays and they're going to score points. Anyway, I've more than said my piece. It has been like pulling teeth to get someone to defend LaPorta being ranked so high and Jamo so low. It's a gigantic disparity that has absolutely zero to do with Jared Goff.

Even when you look at it from a target share. You have one projector, projecting 200 less attempts. 15% of 600 = 90 > 20% of 400 = 80

You're not hearing me. What I'm saying is that even if Goff and all DET QBs only have 200 total attempts (I know that is absurdly low), any kind of boost in share from Jamo MUST come from LaPorta. That is the premise I'm trying to put out there to be challenged. Nobody has countered it yet. I've repeatedly said even if the pie is smaller.

Any chance you can link to the post where you spelled out why Jamo takes targets from LaPorta? The search engine isn't doing me any favors this afternoon and I'd love to know the rationale.

 

[jon_mx]

2024

Tremblay

16.6

395.0

603.0

4357

24.9

15.6

33.0

50

1.3

1.0

Projecting yards per attempt to drop from 7.6 to 7.2. Projecting a 17% regression in TDs.

Those projected regressions are intentional. I'll address the TDs.

Last year, the Lions scored 461 points, with just 105 of those points (22.3%) coming from the kicker position. Over multiple seasons, the league-wide share of kicker points is about 35%.

This year, the over-under for total points by the Lions is 435. I am projecting that a more normal 32.7% of those points will come from the kicker position.

The reduction in expected total points combined with the increase in expected kicker share of those points results in a projected reduction in offensive touchdowns, including a reduction in passing touchdowns.

Goff threw 30 touchdowns last season on 606 attempts, a TD percentage of 4.95%. The league-wide average over multiple seasons is about 3.95%, so Goff was a significant outlier. I assign an inherent TD% of 4.45% to Goff -- significantly above the NFL average, but also significantly below last year's figure. When I adjust his inherent TD% based on the characteristics of the players around him (his RBs are particularly effective goal-line runners, for example), it further reduces his TD% down to 4.13% -- still above average, but not by nearly as much.

I might be significantly off in my projections, but that is some of the thinking that went into them.

All very logical and mathematical. The part you lost me on was Dan Campbell moving towards the mean when it comes to kicking. Dan will remain an anomaly and the mean will even move towards Dan. And of course, I think Jamo blows these numbers up.

 

[Faust]

Jameson Williams dominates one-on-one rep in Lions practice

 

[Long Ball Larry]

Took him at WR46 today (happy @Chaka ??!!) and feeling pretty good about it.

 

[Chaka]

Took him at WR46 today (happy @Chaka ??!!) and feeling pretty good about it.

First off getting him as the 46th WR off the board is insane value IMO. But you did that AND you used my preferred nomenclature!!

I'm as happy as a puppy with two peters.

 

[Deamon]

Took him at WR46 today (happy @Chaka ??!!) and feeling pretty good about it.

First off getting him as the 46th WR off the board is insane value IMO. But you did that AND you used my preferred nomenclature!!

I'm as happy as a puppy with two peters.

Just took him at WR47 in one of the Footballguys Home leagues. Was quite surprised he lasted so long given that I'd assume many of the players in that league read this thread. Nonetheless, I snagged him as my WR6 (can start up to 5WRs in these leagues, and the value seemed too good.) Here's who went around him:

WR35 Reed
WR36 Ridley (me)
WR37 Worthy
WR38 JSN
WR39 Hopkins
WR40 D. Johnson (me)
WR41 Ladd
WR42 Odunze
WR43 Watson
WR44 Samuel
WR45 B.Thomas
WR46 Coleman
WR47 Jamo (me) .... 9.06 if anyone likes the old way

 

[BIRDGANG52]

It's simple for me. He will either eat into Sam Laporta's production or he won't. If there wasn't concern about there being enough targets to go around, then the most passionate Fantasy Football players on the planet wouldn't be arguing about it for the past two weeks.


At the end of the day, we don't know what the coach will call, what the defense will call, and what circumstance will dictate. Seemingly, Jameson may be the most athletic receiver on this team and with a Quarterback who has had no issue compiling stats there's plenty of reason to be excited. He's going to land at 850 to 1150 with 6 - 12 TD. At a 9th round ADP, even at the low - end as your WR4 or FLEX guy, it's still a great bargain. He's being drafted at his floor. I've drafted twice and he's on both my teams. Late round receiver with Top 25 upside.

 

[jon_mx]

At the end of the day, we don't know what the coach will call, what the defense will call, and what circumstance will dictate.

We do know though. We know:

1. The Head Coach says he is the most improved player, he is focused and is on a mission.
2. The OC is saying Jamo is a different person this season. He route tree has developed, we have not seen anything he can't do. He is explosive and taken it to a new level.
3. His QB say Jamo is holding himself to a very high standard, getting better every day, we are getting on the same page more and more. He is ready to explode.
4. All of co-WRs are praising him.
5. Reporters in camp saying he consistantly making big plays, noticing he drops much fewer balls this year. Saying he is the highlight of camp.
5. Despite limited touches, Jamo has shown his explosiveness and elusiveness is elite. Madden rating him a 98, only behind Tyrek.
6. He is locked into the WR2 role in one of the NFLs most prolific offenses, with not a single player on the roster who remotely threatens that.

It is only in very recent years where recievers have been expect to produce big their first season. Previously, the experts targeted season 3 for the big leap. Jamo's first season was wiped out, where he missed camp and most the season with a serious injury and was on a strict snap count when he did return. He second season he had in ankle injury in camp, missing most of it, plus the suspension. When he did come back, he was not yet comfortable out there and was dropping too many balls. Not everyone has the same maturity level or picks up things as quickly. But Jamo's growth has been proven and everyone around him has praised his tremendous growth during late last season, the off season and in camp. He has even worked on his strength.

In nearly 40 years of playing FF, I have never seen a player with so many positive upside indicators and yet not a single expert is hyping him. They rate him as a low-end marginal flex player, when everything points to him being a high-end WR2.

You can play devils advocate on any player in the NFL and no one knows for certainty what the future holds. ARSB is not a lock for 160+ targets. Goff and the Lions are not a lock to have regression. I do not see a Ben Johnson offense which only generates about 60 to 70 targets (4 per game) for a player who could be the most explosive player in the entire league. He is the most obviously under rated player I have ever seen.

 

[RaidersAreOne]

Jamo is so intriguing as a player, but he's the #4 weapon at best on that team (ARSB, Gibbs, Laporta), add in Montgomery likely seeing ample touches too, and it makes me skeptical of his production this season.

 

[jon_mx]

Jamo is so intriguing as a player, but he's the #4 weapon at best on that team (ARSB, Gibbs, Laporta), add in Montgomery likely seeing ample touches too, and it makes me skeptical of his production this season.

Goff will throw more than 600 balls. The top 4 will see 500 of those targets. It won't be exactly an even distribution as ARSB will be the primary chain mover, but the targets will be spread out where their targets will all fall within the 100 to 150 range. Not a popular opinion, but ARSB targets will see a slight decline from 164 to 150. The other three will be in the 100 to 130 range. I see 110 for Jamo. Monty gets touches, but does not get many targets.

 

[Chaka]

Took him at WR46 today (happy @Chaka ??!!) and feeling pretty good about it.

First off getting him as the 46th WR off the board is insane value IMO. But you did that AND you used my preferred nomenclature!!

I'm as happy as a puppy with two peters.

Just took him at WR47 in one of the Footballguys Home leagues. Was quite surprised he lasted so long given that I'd assume many of the players in that league read this thread. Nonetheless, I snagged him as my WR6 (can start up to 5WRs in these leagues, and the value seemed too good.) Here's who went around him:

WR35 Reed
WR36 Ridley (me)
WR37 Worthy
WR38 JSN
WR39 Hopkins
WR40 D. Johnson (me)
WR41 Ladd
WR42 Odunze
WR43 Watson
WR44 Samuel
WR45 B.Thomas
WR46 Coleman
WR47 Jamo (me) .... 9.06 if anyone likes the old way

Interesting, thanks. That tracks with what I have been thinking. Watson stands out as another very high upside guy who's fantasy star has fallen dramatically. Apparently Reed is viewed as the clear #1 based on about half a season's worth of work. Diontae, if it's PPR format, seems like an amazing value as a #4 WR. I am starting Odunze is going to make some noise as a rookie too, but I think people may be selling Keenan Allen a little short because he came to camp heavy. Keenan has a way of making QBs realize he is pretty much always open.

Thanks for the info.

 

[Chaka]

I think people are overestimating LaPorta just a bit.

 

[Deamon]

Took him at WR46 today (happy @Chaka ??!!) and feeling pretty good about it.

First off getting him as the 46th WR off the board is insane value IMO. But you did that AND you used my preferred nomenclature!!

I'm as happy as a puppy with two peters.

Just took him at WR47 in one of the Footballguys Home leagues. Was quite surprised he lasted so long given that I'd assume many of the players in that league read this thread. Nonetheless, I snagged him as my WR6 (can start up to 5WRs in these leagues, and the value seemed too good.) Here's who went around him:

WR35 Reed
WR36 Ridley (me)
WR37 Worthy
WR38 JSN
WR39 Hopkins
WR40 D. Johnson (me)
WR41 Ladd
WR42 Odunze
WR43 Watson
WR44 Samuel
WR45 B.Thomas
WR46 Coleman
WR47 Jamo (me) .... 9.06 if anyone likes the old way

Interesting, thanks. That tracks with what I have been thinking. Watson stands out as another very high upside guy who's fantasy star has fallen dramatically. Apparently Reed is viewed as the clear #1 based on about half a season's worth of work. Diontae, if it's PPR format, seems like an amazing value as a #4 WR. I am starting Odunze is going to make some noise as a rookie too, but I think people may be selling Keenan Allen a little short because he came to camp heavy. Keenan has a way of making QBs realize he is pretty much always open.

Thanks for the info.

This is just one of the FBG home leagues though for $50. People are sharper in my bigger leagues and Jamo hasn't slipped to WR47 there yet in those. He's going in the WR40-45 range in those.

 

[Joe Bryant]

2024

Tremblay

16.6

395.0

603.0

4357

24.9

15.6

33.0

50

1.3

1.0

Projecting yards per attempt to drop from 7.6 to 7.2. Projecting a 17% regression in TDs.

Those projected regressions are intentional. I'll address the TDs.

Last year, the Lions scored 461 points, with just 105 of those points (22.3%) coming from the kicker position. Over multiple seasons, the league-wide share of kicker points is about 35%.

This year, the over-under for total points by the Lions is 435. I am projecting that a more normal 32.7% of those points will come from the kicker position.

The reduction in expected total points combined with the increase in expected kicker share of those points results in a projected reduction in offensive touchdowns, including a reduction in passing touchdowns.

Goff threw 30 touchdowns last season on 606 attempts, a TD percentage of 4.95%. The league-wide average over multiple seasons is about 3.95%, so Goff was a significant outlier. I assign an inherent TD% of 4.45% to Goff -- significantly above the NFL average, but also significantly below last year's figure. When I adjust his inherent TD% based on the characteristics of the players around him (his RBs are particularly effective goal-line runners, for example), it further reduces his TD% down to 4.13% -- still above average, but not by nearly as much.

I might be significantly off in my projections, but that is some of the thinking that went into them.

Thanks @Maurile Tremblay

 

[kutta]

I will take all bets on anyone who thinks Jamo will finish below WR40.

Well dang. Someone has to take this bet to make the thread interesting.

I'm a Lions fan and HOPE he has a great year. But I'll take $100 on him finishing the year at WR 41 or worse.

 

[eighsse2]

I will take all bets on anyone who thinks Jamo will finish below WR40.

Well dang. Someone has to take this bet to make the thread interesting.

I'm a Lions fan and HOPE he has a great year. But I'll take $100 on him finishing the year at WR 41 or worse.

I would take the bet, but I don't know how the pay would work.

 

[Chaka]

I think people are overestimating LaPorta just a bit.

Just to expand on this a little bit: LaPorta thrived in a situation where there wasn't a true #2 WR on the team. Williams missed a bunch of TC and was suspended to start the season.

We have never seen Ben Johnson's offense operate with a true #1 & #2 WR IMO. Khalil Raymond and Josh Reynolds just don't count.

Whether or not Williams is a true #2 (or #1) is highly debatable but he has the pedigree. If he hits, I could easily see LaPorta's target share drop by 20-30, more in line with Kittle.

He's not Travis Kelce to this offense.

 

[kutta]

I will take all bets on anyone who thinks Jamo will finish below WR40.

Well dang. Someone has to take this bet to make the thread interesting.

I'm a Lions fan and HOPE he has a great year. But I'll take $100 on him finishing the year at WR 41 or worse.

I would take the bet, but I don't know how the pay would work.

I’d be willing to PayPal to someone to hold the money.

 

[BassNBrew]

I will take all bets on anyone who thinks Jamo will finish below WR40.

Well dang. Someone has to take this bet to make the thread interesting.

I'm a Lions fan and HOPE he has a great year. But I'll take $100 on him finishing the year at WR 41 or worse.

I would take the bet, but I don't know how the pay would work.

I’d be willing to PayPal to someone to hold the money.

Welcome to hold up to $500 in my paypal account if needed.

 

[eighsse2]

I will take all bets on anyone who thinks Jamo will finish below WR40.

Well dang. Someone has to take this bet to make the thread interesting.

I'm a Lions fan and HOPE he has a great year. But I'll take $100 on him finishing the year at WR 41 or worse.

I would take the bet, but I don't know how the pay would work.

I’d be willing to PayPal to someone to hold the money.

Welcome to hold up to $500 in my paypal account if needed.

I don't have PayPal, so any payments to or from me would be checks mailed out I suppose. Not to mention, not that I mistrust anyone here, but it's a small risk to even make the bet when you know you'll pay out if you lose, but don't know for sure what will happen if you win.

 

[BassNBrew]

I will take all bets on anyone who thinks Jamo will finish below WR40.

Well dang. Someone has to take this bet to make the thread interesting.

I'm a Lions fan and HOPE he has a great year. But I'll take $100 on him finishing the year at WR 41 or worse.

I would take the bet, but I don't know how the pay would work.

I’d be willing to PayPal to someone to hold the money.

Welcome to hold up to $500 in my paypal account if needed.

I don't have PayPal, so any payments to or from me would be checks mailed out I suppose. Not to mention, not that I mistrust anyone here, but it's a small risk to even make the bet when you know you'll pay out if you lose, but don't know for sure what will happen if you win.

yeah...I don't want to have to screw with checks. In that case I'd drop the bet to $20 or something and pay up at the end.

 

[Smack Tripper]

I think people are overestimating LaPorta just a bit.

Just to expand on this a little bit: LaPorta thrived in a situation where there wasn't a true #2 WR on the team. Williams missed a bunch of TC and was suspended to start the season.

We have never seen Ben Johnson's offense operate with a true #1 & #2 WR IMO. Khalil Raymond and Josh Reynolds just don't count.

Whether or not Williams is a true #2 (or #1) is highly debatable but he has the pedigree. If he hits, I could easily see LaPorta's target share drop by 20-30, more in line with Kittle.

He's not Travis Kelce to this offense.

I'm rooting for Jamo, I have him and LaPorta in my main league

I think its a big leap to say the guy with more expereince who's shown less than Laporta in all phases but speed is going to pass him.

Until proven otherwise, Jameson is closer to John Ross than Laporta.

But I hope I"m wrong.

 

[Moonlight]

2024

Tremblay

16.6

395.0

603.0

4357

24.9

15.6

33.0

50

1.3

1.0

Projecting yards per attempt to drop from 7.6 to 7.2. Projecting a 17% regression in TDs.

Those projected regressions are intentional. I'll address the TDs.

Last year, the Lions scored 461 points, with just 105 of those points (22.3%) coming from the kicker position. Over multiple seasons, the league-wide share of kicker points is about 35%.

This year, the over-under for total points by the Lions is 435. I am projecting that a more normal 32.7% of those points will come from the kicker position.

The reduction in expected total points combined with the increase in expected kicker share of those points results in a projected reduction in offensive touchdowns, including a reduction in passing touchdowns.

Goff threw 30 touchdowns last season on 606 attempts, a TD percentage of 4.95%. The league-wide average over multiple seasons is about 3.95%, so Goff was a significant outlier. I assign an inherent TD% of 4.45% to Goff -- significantly above the NFL average, but also significantly below last year's figure. When I adjust his inherent TD% based on the characteristics of the players around him (his RBs are particularly effective goal-line runners, for example), it further reduces his TD% down to 4.13% -- still above average, but not by nearly as much.

I might be significantly off in my projections, but that is some of the thinking that went into them.

All very logical and mathematical. The part you lost me on was Dan Campbell moving towards the mean when it comes to kicking. Dan will remain an anomaly and the mean will even move towards Dan. And of course, I think Jamo blows these numbers up.

Yeah watching the Lions Campbell does not play for FGs. You had the sense he hated kicking them.
Campbell has talked about evolving as a coach this year whether that will effect his approach to 4th downs remains to be seen.
I would expect the Lions to kick fewer field goals than league average again.

 

[Smack Tripper]

I will take all bets on anyone who thinks Jamo will finish below WR40.

Well dang. Someone has to take this bet to make the thread interesting.

I'm a Lions fan and HOPE he has a great year. But I'll take $100 on him finishing the year at WR 41 or worse.

I would take the bet, but I don't know how the pay would work.

Leaguesafe?

 

[Chaka]

I think people are overestimating LaPorta just a bit.

Just to expand on this a little bit: LaPorta thrived in a situation where there wasn't a true #2 WR on the team. Williams missed a bunch of TC and was suspended to start the season.

We have never seen Ben Johnson's offense operate with a true #1 & #2 WR IMO. Khalil Raymond and Josh Reynolds just don't count.

Whether or not Williams is a true #2 (or #1) is highly debatable but he has the pedigree. If he hits, I could easily see LaPorta's target share drop by 20-30, more in line with Kittle.

He's not Travis Kelce to this offense.

I'm rooting for Jamo, I have him and LaPorta in my main league

I think its a big leap to say the guy with more expereince who's shown less than Laporta in all phases but speed is going to pass him.

Until proven otherwise, Jameson is closer to John Ross than Laporta.

But I hope I"m wrong.

I never said or implied Williams>LaPorta.

I just said if Williams plays to pedigree he could take 20-30 targets from LaPorta. That still leaves LaPorta with 90-100 targets is more in line with good TEs.

 

[jon_mx]

I will take all bets on anyone who thinks Jamo will finish below WR40.

Well dang. Someone has to take this bet to make the thread interesting.

I'm a Lions fan and HOPE he has a great year. But I'll take $100 on him finishing the year at WR 41 or worse.

I will $100 bet. Paypal or Vemo works for me. Someone holding the money is not really neccessary for $100.

I have loaded up on a FanDeul bet offering +490 on Jamo going over 1000. And a bit on a silly lottery ticket for +40000 on OPOY.

 

[Deamon]

I will take all bets on anyone who thinks Jamo will finish below WR40.

Well dang. Someone has to take this bet to make the thread interesting.

I'm a Lions fan and HOPE he has a great year. But I'll take $100 on him finishing the year at WR 41 or worse.

I would take the bet, but I don't know how the pay would work.

Leaguesafe?

Ya I think this could work? I know that's not what they're designed for, but I do wonder if anyone uses them for this. You could both easily deposit it, but I think you need league majority to vote on the payout after so they could technically just vote no.

Either way, I think @jon_mx should be putting his money where his mouth is when he's throwing out all these bets.

However, with what he's talking about, screw WR40 and above. He has said over and over that he should be a high end WR2.... meaning WR12-WR16. If he thinks this is true, do an O/U of WR20.... heck, at the very LEAST make it WR30 over or under. He has said many times that he has no doubts he will be above WR30, let's set the o/u there and get some people taking his bet on leaguesafe.

(I personally won't do it as I am CHEERING for Jamo to do well as I own him basically everywhere. I still don't think he cracks the top 30 but I don't want to be cheering against it this year)

 

[Deamon]

I will take all bets on anyone who thinks Jamo will finish below WR40.

Well dang. Someone has to take this bet to make the thread interesting.

I'm a Lions fan and HOPE he has a great year. But I'll take $100 on him finishing the year at WR 41 or worse.

That is cool. I will take this bet.

I personally like the FanDeul bet on Jamo going over 1000 yards for +490. I have loaded up in that.

I will take all bets on anyone who thinks Jamo will finish below WR40.

Well dang. Someone has to take this bet to make the thread interesting.

I'm a Lions fan and HOPE he has a great year. But I'll take $100 on him finishing the year at WR 41 or worse.

I will $100 bet. Paypal or Vemo works for me. Someone holding the money is not really neccessary for $100.

I have loaded up on a FanDeul bet offering +490 on Jamo going over 1000. And a bit on a silky lottery ticket for +40000 on OPOY.

Put your money where mouth is and do O/U WR20... or even WR30?

Your big thing was that you'd bet anyone he'd finish closer to WR20 than to WR50.... so at the very LEAST, if you're so confident on that, make it WR35 over/under.

 

[BIRDGANG52]

I will take all bets on anyone who thinks Jamo will finish below WR40.

Well dang. Someone has to take this bet to make the thread interesting.

I'm a Lions fan and HOPE he has a great year. But I'll take $100 on him finishing the year at WR 41 or worse.

That is cool. I will take this bet.

I personally like the FanDeul bet on Jamo going over 1000 yards for +490. I have loaded up in that.

I will take all bets on anyone who thinks Jamo will finish below WR40.

Well dang. Someone has to take this bet to make the thread interesting.

I'm a Lions fan and HOPE he has a great year. But I'll take $100 on him finishing the year at WR 41 or worse.

I will $100 bet. Paypal or Vemo works for me. Someone holding the money is not really neccessary for $100.

I have loaded up on a FanDeul bet offering +490 on Jamo going over 1000. And a bit on a silky lottery ticket for +40000 on OPOY.

Put your money where mouth is and do O/U WR20... or even WR30?

Your big thing was that you'd bet anyone he'd finish closer to WR20 than to WR50.... so at the very LEAST, if you're so confident on that, make it WR35 over/under.

The art of the deal.

 

[jon_mx]

I will take all bets on anyone who thinks Jamo will finish below WR40.

Well dang. Someone has to take this bet to make the thread interesting.

I'm a Lions fan and HOPE he has a great year. But I'll take $100 on him finishing the year at WR 41 or worse.

That is cool. I will take this bet.

I personally like the FanDeul bet on Jamo going over 1000 yards for +490. I have loaded up in that.

I will take all bets on anyone who thinks Jamo will finish below WR40.

Well dang. Someone has to take this bet to make the thread interesting.

I'm a Lions fan and HOPE he has a great year. But I'll take $100 on him finishing the year at WR 41 or worse.

I will $100 bet. Paypal or Vemo works for me. Someone holding the money is not really neccessary for $100.

I have loaded up on a FanDeul bet offering +490 on Jamo going over 1000. And a bit on a silky lottery ticket for +40000 on OPOY.

Put your money where mouth is and do O/U WR20... or even WR30?

Your big thing was that you'd bet anyone he'd finish closer to WR20 than to WR50.... so at the very LEAST, if you're so confident on that, make it WR35 over/under.

I have. I put $500 down on FanDuel at +490 for Jamo to go over 1000. I am getting 5x the odds for the essentally same bet you offer. I am not stupid.

 

[jon_mx]

I will take all bets on anyone who thinks Jamo will finish below WR40.

Well dang. Someone has to take this bet to make the thread interesting.

I'm a Lions fan and HOPE he has a great year. But I'll take $100 on him finishing the year at WR 41 or worse.

That is cool. I will take this bet.

I personally like the FanDeul bet on Jamo going over 1000 yards for +490. I have loaded up in that.

I will take all bets on anyone who thinks Jamo will finish below WR40.

Well dang. Someone has to take this bet to make the thread interesting.

I'm a Lions fan and HOPE he has a great year. But I'll take $100 on him finishing the year at WR 41 or worse.

I will $100 bet. Paypal or Vemo works for me. Someone holding the money is not really neccessary for $100.

I have loaded up on a FanDeul bet offering +490 on Jamo going over 1000. And a bit on a silky lottery ticket for +40000 on OPOY.

Put your money where mouth is and do O/U WR20... or even WR30?

Your big thing was that you'd bet anyone he'd finish closer to WR20 than to WR50.... so at the very LEAST, if you're so confident on that, make it WR35 over/under.

I have. I put $500 down on FanDuel at +490 for Jamo to go over 1000. I am getting 5x the odds for the essentally same bet you offer. I am not stupid.

Exactly, then take an O/U WR35 bet with @kutta

I am fine with bumping it up to WR35 for Kutta. He always seems like a good guy. But that is it on that.

 

[Smack Tripper]

If he’s wr 35 or better he’s a league winner

 

[Deamon]

If he’s wr 35 or better he’s a league winner

I mean, his ADP is WR46. I wouldn't say WR35 makes him even close to a league winner.

WR45- ADP
WR35- The O/U for @jon_mx and @kutta 's bet
WR30- Where I have him ranked
WR25- Incredible pick and a weekly starter that can carry you to playoffs.
WR15- League winner status
WR5- Jamo's FLOOR according to @jon_mx

 

[Ray_T]

I mean, his ADP is WR46. I wouldn't say WR35 makes him even close to a league winner.

agreed. wr35 makes him a flex play or streaming option (depending on team depth). hardly a game changer for fantasy. its still a good pick but a league winner is if you draft a guy at WR46 and you end up getting WR15 (or better) because then you got a legitimate starter essentially for free. now THAT would be a difference making pick and if your team is good, the pick might be good enough to put you over the top.

 

[eighsse2]

I mean, his ADP is WR46. I wouldn't say WR35 makes him even close to a league winner.

agreed. wr35 makes him a flex play or streaming option (depending on team depth). hardly a game changer for fantasy. its still a good pick but a league winner is if you draft a guy at WR46 and you end up getting WR15 (or better) because then you got a legitimate starter essentially for free. now THAT would be a difference making pick and if your team is good, the pick might be good enough to put you over the top.

Yeah ... WR35 for the price of WR46 is like getting a $5 burger for $1. It's great, it makes your day, awesome. A league winner is way different.

 

[Deamon]

I mean, his ADP is WR46. I wouldn't say WR35 makes him even close to a league winner.

agreed. wr35 makes him a flex play or streaming option (depending on team depth). hardly a game changer for fantasy. its still a good pick but a league winner is if you draft a guy at WR46 and you end up getting WR15 (or better) because then you got a legitimate starter essentially for free. now THAT would be a difference making pick and if your team is good, the pick might be good enough to put you over the top.

Yeah ... WR35 for the price of WR46 is like getting a $5 burger for $1. It's great, it makes your day, awesome. A league winner is way different.

More like getting a $5 burger and they put free bacon on it.

 

[Lansdowne]

I mean, his ADP is WR46. I wouldn't say WR35 makes him even close to a league winner.

agreed. wr35 makes him a flex play or streaming option (depending on team depth). hardly a game changer for fantasy. its still a good pick but a league winner is if you draft a guy at WR46 and you end up getting WR15 (or better) because then you got a legitimate starter essentially for free. now THAT would be a difference making pick and if your team is good, the pick might be good enough to put you over the top.

Yeah ... WR35 for the price of WR46 is like getting a $5 burger for $1. It's great, it makes your day, awesome. A league winner is way different.

Yup. Case in point: Brandin Cooks was WR35 last season. If anybody won their league last year, it probably wasn't because of him. Guys like Nico Collins (ADP of WR58, finish of WR9) and Puka Nacua (ADP of WR101, finish of WR5) are the definition of league winners.

 

[H8fulHuck]

I will take all bets on anyone who thinks Jamo will finish below WR40.

Well dang. Someone has to take this bet to make the thread interesting.

I'm a Lions fan and HOPE he has a great year. But I'll take $100 on him finishing the year at WR 41 or worse.

I would take the bet, but I don't know how the pay would work.

I’d be willing to PayPal to someone to hold the money.

Jameson Williams season long prop bets look like a smash the over from most posting here. You could drop your bet there. If taking the over on receiving yards, Drafters is friendlier.

Drafters
over/under 675.5 receiving yards
over/under 48.5 receptions
No TD available

Underdog
3.5 Receiving TDs
699.5 receiving yards
48.5 receptions

I have no affiliation with either other than spending money on best ball drafts on both apps.

 

[Wrigley]

I mean, his ADP is WR46. I wouldn't say WR35 makes him even close to a league winner.

agreed. wr35 makes him a flex play or streaming option (depending on team depth). hardly a game changer for fantasy. its still a good pick but a league winner is if you draft a guy at WR46 and you end up getting WR15 (or better) because then you got a legitimate starter essentially for free. now THAT would be a difference making pick and if your team is good, the pick might be good enough to put you over the top.

Yeah ... WR35 for the price of WR46 is like getting a $5 burger for $1. It's great, it makes your day, awesome. A league winner is way different.

More like getting a $5 burger and they put free bacon on it.

mmmmm bacon

 

[kutta]

I will take all bets on anyone who thinks Jamo will finish below WR40.

Well dang. Someone has to take this bet to make the thread interesting.

I'm a Lions fan and HOPE he has a great year. But I'll take $100 on him finishing the year at WR 41 or worse.

That is cool. I will take this bet.

I personally like the FanDeul bet on Jamo going over 1000 yards for +490. I have loaded up in that.

I will take all bets on anyone who thinks Jamo will finish below WR40.

Well dang. Someone has to take this bet to make the thread interesting.

I'm a Lions fan and HOPE he has a great year. But I'll take $100 on him finishing the year at WR 41 or worse.

I will $100 bet. Paypal or Vemo works for me. Someone holding the money is not really neccessary for $100.

I have loaded up on a FanDeul bet offering +490 on Jamo going over 1000. And a bit on a silky lottery ticket for +40000 on OPOY.

Put your money where mouth is and do O/U WR20... or even WR30?

Your big thing was that you'd bet anyone he'd finish closer to WR20 than to WR50.... so at the very LEAST, if you're so confident on that, make it WR35 over/under.

I have. I put $500 down on FanDuel at +490 for Jamo to go over 1000. I am getting 5x the odds for the essentally same bet you offer. I am not stupid.

Exactly, then take an O/U WR35 bet with @kutta

I am fine with bumping it up to WR35 for Kutta. He always seems like a good guy. But that is it on that.

Nope. Let’s keep it at 40. That was the original bet. It’s a bet I’m hoping I lose.

 

[bluemanfoo]

2024

Tremblay

16.6

395.0

603.0

4357

24.9

15.6

33.0

50

1.3

1.0

Projecting yards per attempt to drop from 7.6 to 7.2. Projecting a 17% regression in TDs.

Those projected regressions are intentional. I'll address the TDs.

Last year, the Lions scored 461 points, with just 105 of those points (22.3%) coming from the kicker position. Over multiple seasons, the league-wide share of kicker points is about 35%.

This year, the over-under for total points by the Lions is 435. I am projecting that a more normal 32.7% of those points will come from the kicker position.

The reduction in expected total points combined with the increase in expected kicker share of those points results in a projected reduction in offensive touchdowns, including a reduction in passing touchdowns.

Goff threw 30 touchdowns last season on 606 attempts, a TD percentage of 4.95%. The league-wide average over multiple seasons is about 3.95%, so Goff was a significant outlier. I assign an inherent TD% of 4.45% to Goff -- significantly above the NFL average, but also significantly below last year's figure. When I adjust his inherent TD% based on the characteristics of the players around him (his RBs are particularly effective goal-line runners, for example), it further reduces his TD% down to 4.13% -- still above average, but not by nearly as much.

I might be significantly off in my projections, but that is some of the thinking that went into them.

All very logical and mathematical. The part you lost me on was Dan Campbell moving towards the mean when it comes to kicking. Dan will remain an anomaly and the mean will even move towards Dan. And of course, I think Jamo blows these numbers up.

Yeah watching the Lions Campbell does not play for FGs. You had the sense he hated kicking them.
Campbell has talked about evolving as a coach this year whether that will effect his approach to 4th downs remains to be seen.
I would expect the Lions to kick fewer field goals than league average again.

Campbell said he's not changing his 4th down approach. He wants 7 rather than 3.

 

[bluemanfoo]

I mean, his ADP is WR46. I wouldn't say WR35 makes him even close to a league winner.

agreed. wr35 makes him a flex play or streaming option (depending on team depth). hardly a game changer for fantasy. its still a good pick but a league winner is if you draft a guy at WR46 and you end up getting WR15 (or better) because then you got a legitimate starter essentially for free. now THAT would be a difference making pick and if your team is good, the pick might be good enough to put you over the top.

In a 3 WR + Flex league like mine, WR25 is still a huge boost when drafted at WR46. If you only start 2 WRs without a Flex, Jamo is less interesting but still worth a dart throw.