WR Jameson Williams, DET (8 Viewers)

[Faust]

Jordan Schultz
Was in Detroit for #Dolphins v #Lions joint practice, and Jameson Williams is hitting a different level of electric. Explosive speed, big-play ability — he was a constant problem. Everyone I spoke to (including two Miami coaches) had nothing but high praise for him.

Jamo in for a monster year.

https://x.com/schultz_report/status/1956031220560568325?s=61

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

If any player in the league gives off a prime Tyreek vibe...

Shh.....................

Why? I already got him as my WR2 in FBG League Uno.

WR3 in four. *cough*

If any player in the league gives off a prime Tyreek vibe...

Shh.....................

Why? I already got him as my WR2 in FBG League Uno.

I landed him in both of my start-ups as my WR4-5, respectively. Really excited about him this year. Thought he went way too early in league 4, but I knew he wouldn’t make it 22 picks. It was between Worthy & Jameson and I’m still not sure if I chose correctly (Worthy) .

Literally the idea of "I knew he wouldn't make it 22 picks" was the difference between him and the higher floor guys who went after. I wanted him and he wasn't coming back.
Maybe DK and Devonta Smith outscore him and I made a bad pick. He just has the highest chance of ending up as a top 5 wr between the three, and I don't think it's close.

You didn’t have Worthy to choose from though - I took him 4.01 & you took Jamo 5.04

Great pick, but curious if you take him over Worthy if both were there?

ETA - Wait, you meant over DJM, DK, & Smith. Yeah, I make that pick 100/100.

 

[Chaka]

He finished last season as a mid WR2 and was drafted as a low #2 in all four leagues.

Would you have taken him over Worthy? (Wondering if I should be kicking myself)

I did take him over Worthy. Worthy could be great but Mahomes spreads the ball around and Rashee and Hollywood are back. I'm also surprised he only averaged 10.8 ypc last season with a long of 54. Maybe just an aberration.

I'm still trying to figure out how you got Jameson as a WR 4/5 in two leagues.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

I'm still trying to figure out how you got Jameson as a WR 4/5 in two leagues.

In one I went QB, WR, WR, WR, QB, WR. Sometimes you get lucky & other teams have other plans. Heck, I landed BTJ at 2.09 - lots of QB & TE love.

In the other I went WR, RB, QB, QB, WR, WR, WR.

It just worked out I guess. Good karma? Who knows. In one league I traded for a pick, took a RB, then DJM & DeSmith the round after Jamo. I started with Lamb & AJB. Ranking-wise, on paper, that makes Jamo my WR5. But I drafted him as my 3rd WR.

 

[Chaka]

@Hot Sauce Guy

Xavier Worthy draft spots in FBG Home Leagues
1 - 5.12 - 28th WR
2 - 5.12 - 29th WR
3 - 5.07 - 24th WR
4 - 4.01 - 20th WR

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

@Hot Sauce Guy

Xavier Worthy draft spots in FBG Home Leagues
1 - 5.12 - 28th WR
2 - 5.12 - 29th WR
3 - 5.07 - 24th WR
4 - 4.01 - 20th WR

Wow. Guess I’m the chump then.


My first worthy share. Wish me luck, I wanted to take Jamo there.

FPPC ADP has Worthy 42 & Jamo 55

Also, functionally drafting from the 12 there’s no difference in 4.01 or 5.11. That said looking at those draft boards if I were in any league but 4 I’d have had a significantly better draft. lol

 

[Jail]

If any player in the league gives off a prime Tyreek vibe...

He is electric. But Tyreek is thick and strong. Jamo is just so thin it makes it hard not to wonder if he’s going to have issues staying healthy.

I’m trying to think of guys that have had long and productive careers with his body type, but I have a crap memory. Marvin Harrison is one, but he was the MASTER at avoiding hits. Sometimes it was almost embarrassing how badly he avoided contact, but in retrospect it was perfect decision. Are there others?

 

[Chaka]

If any player in the league gives off a prime Tyreek vibe...

He is electric. But Tyreek is thick and strong. Jamo is just so thin it makes it hard not to wonder if he’s going to have issues staying healthy.

I’m trying to think of guys that have had long and productive careers with his body type, but I have a crap memory. Marvin Harrison is one, but he was the MASTER at avoiding hits. Sometimes it was almost embarrassing how badly he avoided contact, but in retrospect it was perfect decision. Are there others?

It's a fair concern. Jamo physically looks nothing like Tyreek, that's for sure. But, man he moves and it's not just straight line speed, he can stop/start and get back to speed and he can run a full route tree.

Every report out of Detroit this off season mentions how hard he has worked on his craft and how much it shows on the field.

On the downside, I do worry about the loss of Ben Johnson, a lot, l and they took some big hits on the interior OL, particularly Frank Ragnow. But, on the whole he is one of my favorite guys this year.

 

[wgoldsph]

He finished last season as a mid WR2 and was drafted as a low #2 in all four leagues.

Would you have taken him over Worthy? (Wondering if I should be kicking myself)

Yes. Easily. But it's more of an eye test than any real metric. I don't think Worthy is "special".

 

[J Giles Band]

If any player in the league gives off a prime Tyreek vibe...

He is electric. But Tyreek is thick and strong. Jamo is just so thin it makes it hard not to wonder if he’s going to have issues staying healthy.

I’m trying to think of guys that have had long and productive careers with his body type, but I have a crap memory. Marvin Harrison is one, but he was the MASTER at avoiding hits. Sometimes it was almost embarrassing how badly he avoided contact, but in retrospect it was perfect decision. Are there others?

Randy Moss had a similar body type. Taller for sure, but similar slender build.

I'd say he was ok...

 

[Chaka]

If any player in the league gives off a prime Tyreek vibe...

He is electric. But Tyreek is thick and strong. Jamo is just so thin it makes it hard not to wonder if he’s going to have issues staying healthy.

I’m trying to think of guys that have had long and productive careers with his body type, but I have a crap memory. Marvin Harrison is one, but he was the MASTER at avoiding hits. Sometimes it was almost embarrassing how badly he avoided contact, but in retrospect it was perfect decision. Are there others?

Randy Moss had a similar body type. Taller for sure, but similar slender build.

I'd say he was ok...

Might as well throw in Jerry Rice, just to be safe.

 

[Chaka]

If we are going to compare him physically to first ballot HoFers the one he matches up with identically at 6'1" 182 lbs, is Don Hutson.

I'll take it.

 

[J Giles Band]

If any player in the league gives off a prime Tyreek vibe...

He is electric. But Tyreek is thick and strong. Jamo is just so thin it makes it hard not to wonder if he’s going to have issues staying healthy.

I’m trying to think of guys that have had long and productive careers with his body type, but I have a crap memory. Marvin Harrison is one, but he was the MASTER at avoiding hits. Sometimes it was almost embarrassing how badly he avoided contact, but in retrospect it was perfect decision. Are there others?

Randy Moss had a similar body type. Taller for sure, but similar slender build.

I'd say he was ok...

Might as well throw in Jerry Rice, just to be safe.

I wouldn't go THAT far.

 

[J Giles Band]

If we are going to compare him physically to first ballot HoFers the one he matches up with identically at 6'1" 182 lbs, is Don Hutson.

I'll take it.

To be clear... I was referring to Jail's injury concern with Jameson due to his slight build.

In no way was I saying Jameson is in Moss' class as a WR... nor was it implied.

 

[Chaka]

If we are going to compare him physically to first ballot HoFers the one he matches up with identically at 6'1" 182 lbs, is Don Hutson.

I'll take it.

To be clear... I was referring to Jail's injury concern with Jameson due to his slight build.

In no way was I saying Jameson is in Moss' class as a WR... nor was it implied.

LOL

I'm sorry but I'm going to have to ask the judges for a ruling.

 

[J Giles Band]

If we are going to compare him physically to first ballot HoFers the one he matches up with identically at 6'1" 182 lbs, is Don Hutson.

I'll take it.

To be clear... I was referring to Jail's injury concern with Jameson due to his slight build.

In no way was I saying Jameson is in Moss' class as a WR... nor was it implied.

LOL

I'm sorry but I'm going to have to ask the judges for a ruling.

Apparently...

 

[Soulfly3]

I certainly remember one FBG's member who will roster him on every team he owns...

This has to be me

 

[TampaMike19]

Non zero chance he outscores ARSB this year due to YPR and TDs

 

[rockaction]

Non zero chance he outscores ARSB this year due to YPR and TDs

Aw c’mon. If you’re gonna plant a flag then plant it.

 

[rockaction]

I think he gives Brian Thomas Jr. a run for it and is wildly underpriced.

 

[Hendo]

He’s probably the most explosive WR in the league to be frank, if he’s fed the ball and improves the consistency he’s gonna shoot up boards all season. You just can’t find that type of explosive talent outside maybe Tyreek

 

[J Giles Band]

I certainly remember one FBG's member who will roster him on every team he owns...

This has to be me

Nope... this guy was WAYYYYYYY over the top.

 

[eighsse2]

I certainly remember one FBG's member who will roster him on every team he owns...

This has to be me

Nope... this guy was WAYYYYYYY over the top.

Yeah I was surprised Soulfly thought it could have been himself, lol. Seems pretty obvious.

 

[rockaction]

I certainly remember one FBG's member who will roster him on every team he owns... and while there was a lot of bluster at this time last year, most of it proved to be true. Love him in best ball leagues. Tried to trade for him in our 0.5 ppr keeper league... was really close, but was turned down at the end.

jon_mx the Detroit fan. That’s who you’re looking for.

 

[eighsse2]

He’s probably the most explosive WR in the league to be frank, if he’s fed the ball and improves the consistency he’s gonna shoot up boards all season. You just can’t find that type of explosive talent outside maybe Tyreek

Given his history of decision-making, I just hope it's boards he'll be shooting up.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

I certainly remember one FBG's member who will roster him on every team he owns... and while there was a lot of bluster at this time last year, most of it proved to be true. Love him in best ball leagues. Tried to trade for him in our 0.5 ppr keeper league... was really close, but was turned down at the end.

jon_mx the Detroit fan. That’s who you’re looking for.

Not @BobbyLayne ?

Speaking of, where my dude at? He’s usually all over anything DET

 

[Leroy Hoard]

Jon was the original homer, BL usually gives a balanced report.

 

[J Giles Band]

No, not Bobby... he was great. Clearly loves the Lions, but his takes are always based in research, facts and reason.

Bobby isn't a hot take guy... this other guy would go into hiding when Williams had down weeks (clearly didn't want to take his medicine) only to reappear when Williams had a blow up week to pound his chest. Fun times.

 

[Chaka]

He’s probably the most explosive WR in the league to be frank, if he’s fed the ball and improves the consistency he’s gonna shoot up boards all season. You just can’t find that type of explosive talent outside maybe Tyreek

Given his history of decision-making, I just hope it's boards he'll be shooting up.

He's a knucklehead but, so far he's been a mostly harmless knucklehead.

So far...

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

He’s probably the most explosive WR in the league to be frank, if he’s fed the ball and improves the consistency he’s gonna shoot up boards all season. You just can’t find that type of explosive talent outside maybe Tyreek

Given his history of decision-making, I just hope it's boards he'll be shooting up.

He's a knucklehead but, so far he's been a mostly harmless knucklehead.

So far...

What’s a little gambling between friends*

*a player and his bookie

Wasn’t there a PED issue as well?

 

[Chaka]

He’s probably the most explosive WR in the league to be frank, if he’s fed the ball and improves the consistency he’s gonna shoot up boards all season. You just can’t find that type of explosive talent outside maybe Tyreek

Given his history of decision-making, I just hope it's boards he'll be shooting up.

He's a knucklehead but, so far he's been a mostly harmless knucklehead.

So far...

What’s a little gambling between friends*

*a player and his bookie

Wasn’t there a PED issue as well?

Also was in a car with a gun. IIRC it belonged to his passenger. Or he was the passenger and it was the driver's gun.

But he's not beating up women, killing dogs etc.

By all accounts he's a pretty good guy

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

By all accounts he's a pretty good guy

Whomst among us hasn’t been in a car gambling with guns & PEDs. Throw the 1st stone indeed.

 

[dipandglide]

The hype train is gaining steam. Jamo is a talent, as evidenced by his 1k season on low targets and receptions. These types of players give me pause in start em leagues. I need to see 120+ target season before I feel comfortable buying into the hype.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

The hype train is gaining steam. Jamo is a talent, as evidenced by his 1k season on low targets and receptions. These types of players give me pause in start em leagues. I need to see 120+ target season before I feel comfortable buying into the hype.

I’m extremely high on Jamo and I agree with you 100%

 

[Chaka]

The hype train is gaining steam. Jamo is a talent, as evidenced by his 1k season on low targets and receptions. These types of players give me pause in start em leagues. I need to see 120+ target season before I feel comfortable buying into the hype.

I probably should have added this to my list of concerns above.

I believe he is on the rise and am bought in for sure but, on top of losing Ben Johnson and losses on the interior OL, there is a concern about how much volume he will see.

I think 110 targets is easily attainable. I don't see him seeing less usage and it would be only seven more targets than his pace last year.

Make it one more target per game and that's the magic 120 number, assuming 17 games

 

[Leroy Hoard]

He’s probably the most explosive WR in the league to be frank, if he’s fed the ball and improves the consistency he’s gonna shoot up boards all season. You just can’t find that type of explosive talent outside maybe Tyreek

Given his history of decision-making, I just hope it's boards he'll be shooting up.

He's a knucklehead but, so far he's been a mostly harmless knucklehead.

So far...

For him to be the next Tyreek he needs to pick up his paternity suit game.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

He’s probably the most explosive WR in the league to be frank, if he’s fed the ball and improves the consistency he’s gonna shoot up boards all season. You just can’t find that type of explosive talent outside maybe Tyreek

Given his history of decision-making, I just hope it's boards he'll be shooting up.

He's a knucklehead but, so far he's been a mostly harmless knucklehead.

So far...

For him to be the next Tyreek he needs to pick up his paternity suit game.

Also needs to slap more people. Boat owners, girlfriends, etc.

Please note: I’m not condoning this activity.

 

[rockaction]

He’s probably the most explosive WR in the league to be frank, if he’s fed the ball and improves the consistency he’s gonna shoot up boards all season. You just can’t find that type of explosive talent outside maybe Tyreek

Given his history of decision-making, I just hope it's boards he'll be shooting up.

I certainly remember one FBG's member who will roster him on every team he owns... and while there was a lot of bluster at this time last year, most of it proved to be true. Love him in best ball leagues. Tried to trade for him in our 0.5 ppr keeper league... was really close, but was turned down at the end.

jon_mx the Detroit fan. That’s who you’re looking for.

Not @BobbyLayne ?

Speaking of, where my dude at? He’s usually all over anything DET

It was not BL. jon__mx got into it with Daemon from Philly and it lasted ten pages. jon__mx made an outlandish prediction and Jamo delivered.

 

[BobbyLayne]

He’s probably the most explosive WR in the league to be frank, if he’s fed the ball and improves the consistency he’s gonna shoot up boards all season. You just can’t find that type of explosive talent outside maybe Tyreek

Given his history of decision-making, I just hope it's boards he'll be shooting up.

He's a knucklehead but, so far he's been a mostly harmless knucklehead.

So far...

What’s a little gambling between friends*

*a player and his bookie

Wasn’t there a PED issue as well?

Also was in a car with a gun. IIRC it belonged to his passenger. Or he was the passenger and it was the driver's gun.

But he's not beating up women, killing dogs etc.

By all accounts he's a pretty good guy

Probably not worth rehashing…

Spoiler: longish story

I think he was driving, his younger brother was the passenger. They both have legally registered firearms. But his brother has a concealed carry, Jamo did not. Meaning the gun had to be unloaded and in the trunk. It was loaded & on or under the backseat.

(and yeah, if you’re around Detroit packing isn’t the worst idea)

Cop who pulled him over wanted to let it slide but gun violations are a felony. He made calls for 40 minutes until he found someone of a higher rank who gave him the green light. No citation or report was filed (but it leaked a few weeks later.)

Jamo was straight with the team about what happened before the news broke. I agree he’s a good kid. Generous with his time and money, always around town watching high school games & trying to be a guy they can look up to, but he’s had a few dumb mistakes along the way.

Teddy Bridgewater spent a lot of time with him two years ago and it seemed to have sunk in, he matured & became more professional.

 

[Chaka]

He’s probably the most explosive WR in the league to be frank, if he’s fed the ball and improves the consistency he’s gonna shoot up boards all season. You just can’t find that type of explosive talent outside maybe Tyreek

Given his history of decision-making, I just hope it's boards he'll be shooting up.

He's a knucklehead but, so far he's been a mostly harmless knucklehead.

So far...

What’s a little gambling between friends*

*a player and his bookie

Wasn’t there a PED issue as well?

Also was in a car with a gun. IIRC it belonged to his passenger. Or he was the passenger and it was the driver's gun.

But he's not beating up women, killing dogs etc.

By all accounts he's a pretty good guy

Probably not worth rehashing…

Spoiler: longish story

I think he was driving, his younger brother was the passenger. They both have legally registered firearms. But his brother has a concealed carry, Jamo did not. Meaning the gun had to be unloaded and in the trunk. It was loaded & on or under the backseat.

(and yeah, if you’re around Detroit packing isn’t the worst idea)

Cop who pulled him over wanted to let it slide but gun violations are a felony. He made calls for 40 minutes until he found someone of a higher rank who gave him the green light. No citation or report was filed (but it leaked a few weeks later.)

Jamo was straight with the team about what happened before the news broke. I agree he’s a good kid. Generous with his time and money, always around town watching high school games & trying to be a guy they can look up to, but he’s had a few dumb mistakes along the way.

Teddy Bridgewater spent a lot of time with him two years ago and it seemed to have sunk in, he matured & became more professional.

So, you're saying he's better than Tyreek?

Nice.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

I did take him over Worthy. Worthy could be great but Mahomes spreads the ball around

How about with the Rice news?

 

[Chaka]

I did take him over Worthy. Worthy could be great but Mahomes spreads the ball around

How about with the Rice news?

I'll let you know when the actual suspension drops and the appeals are resolved. So, probably February.

 

[travdogg]

I'd say Williams>Worthy in redraft, and Worthy>Williams in dynasty, because we know he's tied long-term to Mahomes.

 

[rockaction]

Williams>Worthy regardless

 

[Chaka]

I'd say Williams>Worthy in redraft, and Worthy>Williams in dynasty, because we know he's tied long-term to Mahomes.

Williams>Worthy regardless

There probably isn't a way to put this non-controversially but having Mahomes at QB doesn't seem like a great advantage for anything but the Chiefs win/loss record. In fantasy he is two seasons removed from relevance and so are most of his skill position players.

4,055 yards and 26.5 TDs with 348 yards and a TD on the ground over the last two seasons.

There is no QB I would want over him if my NFL team absolutely needed to win a game but, fantasy wise, and how he elevates the his skill position players, he's been closer to Trevor Lawrence than Jared Goff who has been on a tear for the last three years and is only one year older than Mahomes.

Over the last three years Goff has put up 4,547 yards & 32 TDs and 0.67 rush TDs. As it relates to the fantasy production of his receivers he seems like a better bet than Mahomes over the next few seasons.

But, let's see how things play out now that Ben Johnson is gone. Maybe Goff craters.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Maybe Goff craters.

I don’t see that happening, but Goff’s consistency might improve without all the trick plays.

Also I’d be lying if I said I wasn’t concerned about injuries to their OL, and how that will impact their ability to throw deep.

In addition to the trio of Justin Herron, Colby Sorsdal and Kenny Yeboah, Campbell said Monday that offensive lineman Trystan Colon will also be out for an extended period of time.

That’s a lot of beef not protecting Goff. I think that’s way more impactful than the OC change. I actually think that change potentially helps Jamo more than it hurts him. (It’s LaPorta’s production I’m a little concerned about)

 

[darksideofoz]

I'd say Williams>Worthy in redraft, and Worthy>Williams in dynasty, because we know he's tied long-term to Mahomes.

Williams>Worthy regardless

There probably isn't a way to put this non-controversially but having Mahomes at QB doesn't seem like a great advantage for anything but the Chiefs win/loss record. In fantasy he is two seasons removed from relevance and so are most of his skill position players.

4,055 yards and 26.5 TDs with 348 yards and a TD on the ground over the last two seasons.

There is no QB I would want over him if my NFL team absolutely needed to win a game but, fantasy wise, and how he elevates the his skill position players, he's been closer to Trevor Lawrence than Jared Goff who has been on a tear for the last three years and is only one year older than Mahomes.

Over the last three years Goff has put up 4,547 yards & 32 TDs and 0.67 rush TDs. As it relates to the fantasy production of his receivers he seems like a better bet than Mahomes over the next few seasons.

But, let's see how things play out now that Ben Johnson is gone. Maybe Goff craters.

Mahomes hasn't been relevant? he's still been a QB1 in all of my leagues the last couple years (QB7-10 depending on ppg vs pp season). but finishing lower than he's been drafted, for sure.

 

[barackdhouse]

I think we're actually at the point where regression to the new mean is going to be that he will have some more games with 7-9+ targets. He's probably due for another one of those soon.

This was after a dud in week 3 ^^ he finished the season achieving that 7 target mark 6 out of his last 7 games. He missed the mark in thier playoff game but he did break off a 62 yard TD run.

Sleeper alert: Jameson facing two game suspension for performance enhancing drugs.

Is that Sam LaPorta's music?

yes it is

Well, at least I don’t have to trot him out there every week now

exactly. I seriously took a small sigh of relief when I heard the news. Hurts me in best ball but 2 games isn't so horrible. The other news I *heard* is that he was contrite and owned up to it. After he got caught of course but at least that is something.

^^ here is me owning up to the idea he isn't the best starter in FF and I was worried about him after week 3. I didn't come back in to the thread again until May and then beat my chest pretty hard admittedly. My projections were... well... pretty amazing. I wish I could do that for some players this year. Check it out below:

DET Offense Projections & Target Market Share
Total Plays - 1187
Dropbacks - 681
Sacks 30 (-200)
PA 651 (Goff 583 Hooker 68)
Thrwy 21
Targets 630
Completions 436 (Goff 392 Hooker 44)
PYrds 5336 (Goff 4872 Hooker 464)
TDs 37 (Goff 34 Hooker 3)
RATT - 506
RYrds - 2339
TDs 27
TtlOff - 7475 (NFL record)
TARGETS

• ARSB 172 | 27.3%
• LaPorta 133 | 21.1%
• Jamo 102 | 16.2%
• Other WRs 75 | 11.9%
• Other TEs 27 | 4.3%
• All RBs 120 | 19.0%
• Fake P 2

Absolute best case scenario I can see happening (and it ain’t probable.)
That’s the most plays run of any team in the last 3 years.
That’s an NFL record for total yardage.
TDs increase from 57 to 64 (60 led the league last year.)
Goff hit’s career highs for TD% and YPA.
The Lions WR2 market share jumps from 11% to 16%.
Jamo goes from 8.3% overall target share to almost double.
His target share in games the played goes from 10.2% to 16.2%
Targets per game jumps from 3.5 to 6.0 (171% increase)
Catch rate improves from 57.1% to 69.6%.
72-1080-15.0-7 & 9-135-1
72.0/36.0
108.0
42.0
13.5
6.0
Half PPR - 205.5 WR15
Full PPR - 241.5 WR16
LEAGUE WINNER
Absolute ceiling, presuming a historic year from the offense and the QB, and the player making massive strides in his production.
Likely Floor (he’s a very wide variance player)
90 targets
55-780-4 & 5-35-0
That’s not helping anyone.

Good stuff. A couple comments that I think need brought up that could swing this a little, and I do mean a little, in the direction of my own personal bias because I think there is room for Jamo to do more than that floor and to have a slightly easier path to the ceiling you described.

Let's assume the Lions do less than a historic season, since that is setting this thing up to fail (IMHO. There is much more evidence to suggest his catch rate will in fact go up and that he will in fact take developmental steps this year than there is evidence to the contrary. So I'd have to call that 65 catches and ~930 yds (top of my head) maybe 1 more TD. But easily 30 more carries.

TDs. We know they're fluky. It could be double digits though even at a lower projected usage and he still hits the mark. And at the ceiling mark that you projected you only gave him 7 TDs plus 1 rushing. I mean that's probably a really good guess but the range of outcomes needs to be higher if its a historic type season.

What if he really eats into LaPorta's pie? Or gets his target share *somehow* up to 20% or more?

600 targets overall instead of 630, and with me bumping down LaPorta a little and taking just a small small bit from the RBs:

• ARSB 163| 27.3%
• LaPorta 110 | 18.0%
• Jamo 118 | 19.7%
• Other WRs 71 | 11.9%
• Other TEs 26 | 4.3%
• All RBs 112 | 18.7%

Why is the narrative of LaPorta getting an increased share not being debated here? I think it is not super likely myself. Especially with all the steady drumbeats re:Jamo

Ok so 118 targets with a 65% catch rate (less than the 69% you used above) gives 77 / 1155 / 10 because I think double digit TDs should be the mark if we're talking ceiling in a hot offense. Add 25/175/1 rushing and we have 270 PPR points. At the ceiling usage level if we say he only gets 6 overall TDs then that is still 240 PPR points. League winner with less than a historic offense requirement

My floor if they have 570 targets to go around now:

• ARSB 156| 27.3%
• LaPorta 114 | 20.0%
• Jamo 100 | 17.5%
• Other WRs 68 | 11.9%
• Other TEs 25 | 4.3%
• All RBs 107 | 18.7%

65 / 975 / 5 & 20 / 140 / 1

212.5 PPR points ~WR2/3 type and still worth drafting. Particularly at current cost.

Here are the actual vs my predicted results.

584 total targets. I estimated between 570 and 600.

Amon-Ra 156 v 141
LaPorta 83 v 114
Jameson 91 v 100
Other WRs 73 v 68
Other TEs 17 v 25
All RBs 110 v 107

Jameson 58 / 1001 / 7 vs 65 / 975 / 5 and in FFPC finished as WR23 vs my prediction of WR22.

- and had 11 carries for 61 yards and 1 TD vs 20 / 140 / 1

He had a 64% catch rate vs the 65% I used in my predictions.

He finished with 100.1 + 58 + 42 + 6.1 + 6 = 212.2 and I predicted 212.5 so yeah just gonna bang my chest a lil for those who said I was crazy for fading LaPorta and citing his likely lower target share as a main reason for Jamo to have this path. I said it repeatedly and few even acknowledged it.

He didn't need the Lions to have a historic season, I was right about that.
There was room for him to get to 100 targets without decimating Amon-Ra, I was right about that.

He hit my floor predictions, so the question of whether he can hit the ceiling projections I made is still open but if you look at those projections now, do they seem so nutty?

^^ Here is me just destroying the projections from last preseason.

No, not Bobby... he was great. Clearly loves the Lions, but his takes are always based in research, facts and reason.

Bobby isn't a hot take guy... this other guy would go into hiding when Williams had down weeks (clearly didn't want to take his medicine) only to reappear when Williams had a blow up week to pound his chest. Fun times.

Well shoot man I thought maybe you were talking about me but I only came into the thread those first three weeks of the season. I didn't say a word again until May. I had very high rostership last year so I thought maybe you were thinking of me. I had gotten into it with someone else even earlier about my BB rostership% of Jamo but it was around maybe 50% in BB/redraft so yeah I was pretty high. But I also wouldn't think I'm considered a hot take guy (again I'd point you to my Lions projections that were a response to Bobby's) so IDK are we still wondering who the person is/was?

 

[Chaka]

I'd say Williams>Worthy in redraft, and Worthy>Williams in dynasty, because we know he's tied long-term to Mahomes.

Williams>Worthy regardless

There probably isn't a way to put this non-controversially but having Mahomes at QB doesn't seem like a great advantage for anything but the Chiefs win/loss record. In fantasy he is two seasons removed from relevance and so are most of his skill position players.

4,055 yards and 26.5 TDs with 348 yards and a TD on the ground over the last two seasons.

There is no QB I would want over him if my NFL team absolutely needed to win a game but, fantasy wise, and how he elevates the his skill position players, he's been closer to Trevor Lawrence than Jared Goff who has been on a tear for the last three years and is only one year older than Mahomes.

Over the last three years Goff has put up 4,547 yards & 32 TDs and 0.67 rush TDs. As it relates to the fantasy production of his receivers he seems like a better bet than Mahomes over the next few seasons.

But, let's see how things play out now that Ben Johnson is gone. Maybe Goff craters.

Mahomes hasn't been relevant? he's still been a QB1 in all of my leagues the last couple years (QB7-10 depending on ppg vs pp season). but finishing lower than he's been drafted, for sure.

QB 7-10 is fine and you nailed it with your second part, he's being very overdrafted. But, as it relates to this thread, he really hasn't had put up a relevant skill position player over the last two seasons. We can talk about the maybes of Rashee's injury, which is totally fair but we're still waiting to see how it plays out.

And, if I were going to bank on a skill position player finishing in the top 12 of their position it would be Rashee, not Worthy (who kicked off this discussion).

Lots of moving parts here, Rice's looming suspension being chief among them, but this does not look like the year to bank many Chiefs skill position guys.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Rice's looming suspension being chief among them

I see what you did there