Chaka
Footballguy
Your parents must be proud.I see what you did thereRice's looming suspension being chief among them
Your parents must be proud.I see what you did thereRice's looming suspension being chief among them
Those are just depth guys fighting for a roster spot. The tackles are great and word out of camp is that Mahogany and Ratledge have been looking very good at guard. Biggest concern is the downgrade at center from Ragnow to Glasgow, but Glasgow is a solid veteran, and won’t be terrible.I don’t see that happening, but Goff’s consistency might improve without all the trick plays.Maybe Goff craters.
Also I’d be lying if I said I wasn’t concerned about injuries to their OL, and how that will impact their ability to throw deep.
That’s a lot of beef not protecting Goff. I think that’s way more impactful than the OC change. I actually think that change potentially helps Jamo more than it hurts him. (It’s LaPorta’s production I’m a little concerned about)In addition to the trio of Justin Herron, Colby Sorsdal and Kenny Yeboah, Campbell said Monday that offensive lineman Trystan Colon will also be out for an extended period of time.
That’s the one that matters most, but I thought it went without saying.Biggest concern is the downgrade at center from Ragnow
my new band nameMahogany Rat LedgeI don’t see that happening, but Goff’s consistency might improve without all the trick plays.Maybe Goff craters.
Also I’d be lying if I said I wasn’t concerned about injuries to their OL, and how that will impact their ability to throw deep.
That’s a lot of beef not protecting Goff. I think that’s way more impactful than the OC change. I actually think that change potentially helps Jamo more than it hurts him. (It’s LaPorta’s production I’m a little concerned about)In addition to the trio of Justin Herron, Colby Sorsdal and Kenny Yeboah, Campbell said Monday that offensive lineman Trystan Colon will also be out for an extended period of time.
Yours notsomuch.Your parents must be proud.I see what you did thereRice's looming suspension being chief among them
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I think this is an overcorrection due to recency bias and awful luck for Mahomes, and outstanding luck when it comes to Goff. I highly doubt Goff outproduces Mahomes going forward, and I'd argue Mahomes about 4 rounds ahead of Goff for fantasy.I'd say Williams>Worthy in redraft, and Worthy>Williams in dynasty, because we know he's tied long-term to Mahomes.
There probably isn't a way to put this non-controversially but having Mahomes at QB doesn't seem like a great advantage for anything but the Chiefs win/loss record. In fantasy he is two seasons removed from relevance and so are most of his skill position players.Williams>Worthy regardless
4,055 yards and 26.5 TDs with 348 yards and a TD on the ground over the last two seasons.
There is no QB I would want over him if my NFL team absolutely needed to win a game but, fantasy wise, and how he elevates the his skill position players, he's been closer to Trevor Lawrence than Jared Goff who has been on a tear for the last three years and is only one year older than Mahomes.
Over the last three years Goff has put up 4,547 yards & 32 TDs and 0.67 rush TDs. As it relates to the fantasy production of his receivers he seems like a better bet than Mahomes over the next few seasons.
But, let's see how things play out now that Ben Johnson is gone. Maybe Goff craters.
Good point about the projected starting 5 still being healthy.Those are just depth guys fighting for a roster spot. The tackles are great and word out of camp is that Mahogany and Ratledge have been looking very good at guard. Biggest concern is the downgrade at center from Ragnow to Glasgow, but Glasgow is a solid veteran, and won’t be terrible.I don’t see that happening, but Goff’s consistency might improve without all the trick plays.Maybe Goff craters.
Also I’d be lying if I said I wasn’t concerned about injuries to their OL, and how that will impact their ability to throw deep.
That’s a lot of beef not protecting Goff. I think that’s way more impactful than the OC change. I actually think that change potentially helps Jamo more than it hurts him. (It’s LaPorta’s production I’m a little concerned about)In addition to the trio of Justin Herron, Colby Sorsdal and Kenny Yeboah, Campbell said Monday that offensive lineman Trystan Colon will also be out for an extended period of time.
Well put.I think we've been seeing Goff's ceiling, and Mahomes floor.
That’s definitely the plan if they don’t get a good C in next year’s draftGood point about the projected starting 5 still being healthy.Those are just depth guys fighting for a roster spot. The tackles are great and word out of camp is that Mahogany and Ratledge have been looking very good at guard. Biggest concern is the downgrade at center from Ragnow to Glasgow, but Glasgow is a solid veteran, and won’t be terrible.I don’t see that happening, but Goff’s consistency might improve without all the trick plays.Maybe Goff craters.
Also I’d be lying if I said I wasn’t concerned about injuries to their OL, and how that will impact their ability to throw deep.
That’s a lot of beef not protecting Goff. I think that’s way more impactful than the OC change. I actually think that change potentially helps Jamo more than it hurts him. (It’s LaPorta’s production I’m a little concerned about)In addition to the trio of Justin Herron, Colby Sorsdal and Kenny Yeboah, Campbell said Monday that offensive lineman Trystan Colon will also be out for an extended period of time.
For those in dynasty, I could see Ratledge following the same path as Ragnow, moving to center in year 2 and bringing in someone else at right guard to replace Glasgow.
Rest easy... it was not you.This was after a dud in week 3 ^^ he finished the season achieving that 7 target mark 6 out of his last 7 games. He missed the mark in thier playoff game but he did break off a 62 yard TD run.I think we're actually at the point where regression to the new mean is going to be that he will have some more games with 7-9+ targets. He's probably due for another one of those soon.
^^ here is me owning up to the idea he isn't the best starter in FF and I was worried about him after week 3. I didn't come back in to the thread again until May and then beat my chest pretty hard admittedly. My projections were... well... pretty amazing. I wish I could do that for some players this year. Check it out below:yes it isIs that Sam LaPorta's music?Sleeper alert: Jameson facing two game suspension for performance enhancing drugs.
exactly. I seriously took a small sigh of relief when I heard the news. Hurts me in best ball but 2 games isn't so horrible. The other news I *heard* is that he was contrite and owned up to it. After he got caught of course but at least that is something.Well, at least I don’t have to trot him out there every week now
^^ Here is me just destroying the projections from last preseason.Here are the actual vs my predicted results.Good stuff. A couple comments that I think need brought up that could swing this a little, and I do mean a little, in the direction of my own personal bias because I think there is room for Jamo to do more than that floor and to have a slightly easier path to the ceiling you described.DET Offense Projections & Target Market Share
Total Plays - 1187
Dropbacks - 681
Sacks 30 (-200)
PA 651 (Goff 583 Hooker 68)
Thrwy 21
Targets 630
Completions 436 (Goff 392 Hooker 44)
PYrds 5336 (Goff 4872 Hooker 464)
TDs 37 (Goff 34 Hooker 3)
RATT - 506
RYrds - 2339
TDs 27
TtlOff - 7475 (NFL record)
TARGETS
Absolute best case scenario I can see happening (and it ain’t probable.)
- ARSB 172 | 27.3%
- LaPorta 133 | 21.1%
- Jamo 102 | 16.2%
- Other WRs 75 | 11.9%
- Other TEs 27 | 4.3%
- All RBs 120 | 19.0%
- Fake P 2
That’s the most plays run of any team in the last 3 years.
That’s an NFL record for total yardage.
TDs increase from 57 to 64 (60 led the league last year.)
Goff hit’s career highs for TD% and YPA.
The Lions WR2 market share jumps from 11% to 16%.
Jamo goes from 8.3% overall target share to almost double.
His target share in games the played goes from 10.2% to 16.2%
Targets per game jumps from 3.5 to 6.0 (171% increase)
Catch rate improves from 57.1% to 69.6%.
72-1080-15.0-7 & 9-135-1
72.0/36.0
108.0
42.0
13.5
6.0
Half PPR - 205.5 WR15
Full PPR - 241.5 WR16
LEAGUE WINNER
Absolute ceiling, presuming a historic year from the offense and the QB, and the player making massive strides in his production.
Likely Floor (he’s a very wide variance player)
90 targets
55-780-4 & 5-35-0
That’s not helping anyone.
Let's assume the Lions do less than a historic season, since that is setting this thing up to fail (IMHO. There is much more evidence to suggest his catch rate will in fact go up and that he will in fact take developmental steps this year than there is evidence to the contrary. So I'd have to call that 65 catches and ~930 yds (top of my head) maybe 1 more TD. But easily 30 more carries.
TDs. We know they're fluky. It could be double digits though even at a lower projected usage and he still hits the mark. And at the ceiling mark that you projected you only gave him 7 TDs plus 1 rushing. I mean that's probably a really good guess but the range of outcomes needs to be higher if its a historic type season.
What if he really eats into LaPorta's pie? Or gets his target share *somehow* up to 20% or more?
600 targets overall instead of 630, and with me bumping down LaPorta a little and taking just a small small bit from the RBs:
- ARSB 163| 27.3%
- LaPorta 110 | 18.0%
- Jamo 118 | 19.7%
- Other WRs 71 | 11.9%
- Other TEs 26 | 4.3%
- All RBs 112 | 18.7%
Why is the narrative of LaPorta getting an increased share not being debated here? I think it is not super likely myself. Especially with all the steady drumbeats re:Jamo
Ok so 118 targets with a 65% catch rate (less than the 69% you used above) gives 77 / 1155 / 10 because I think double digit TDs should be the mark if we're talking ceiling in a hot offense. Add 25/175/1 rushing and we have 270 PPR points. At the ceiling usage level if we say he only gets 6 overall TDs then that is still 240 PPR points. League winner with less than a historic offense requirement
My floor if they have 570 targets to go around now:
65 / 975 / 5 & 20 / 140 / 1
- ARSB 156| 27.3%
- LaPorta 114 | 20.0%
- Jamo 100 | 17.5%
- Other WRs 68 | 11.9%
- Other TEs 25 | 4.3%
- All RBs 107 | 18.7%
212.5 PPR points ~WR2/3 type and still worth drafting. Particularly at current cost.
584 total targets. I estimated between 570 and 600.
Amon-Ra 156 v 141
LaPorta 83 v 114
Jameson 91 v 100
Other WRs 73 v 68
Other TEs 17 v 25
All RBs 110 v 107
Jameson 58 / 1001 / 7 vs 65 / 975 / 5 and in FFPC finished as WR23 vs my prediction of WR22.
- and had 11 carries for 61 yards and 1 TD vs 20 / 140 / 1
He had a 64% catch rate vs the 65% I used in my predictions.
He finished with 100.1 + 58 + 42 + 6.1 + 6 = 212.2 and I predicted 212.5 so yeah just gonna bang my chest a lil for those who said I was crazy for fading LaPorta and citing his likely lower target share as a main reason for Jamo to have this path. I said it repeatedly and few even acknowledged it.
He didn't need the Lions to have a historic season, I was right about that.
There was room for him to get to 100 targets without decimating Amon-Ra, I was right about that.
He hit my floor predictions, so the question of whether he can hit the ceiling projections I made is still open but if you look at those projections now, do they seem so nutty?
Well shoot man I thought maybe you were talking about me but I only came into the thread those first three weeks of the season. I didn't say a word again until May. I had very high rostership last year so I thought maybe you were thinking of me. I had gotten into it with someone else even earlier about my BB rostership% of Jamo but it was around maybe 50% in BB/redraft so yeah I was pretty high. But I also wouldn't think I'm considered a hot take guy (again I'd point you to my Lions projections that were a response to Bobby's) so IDK are we still wondering who the person is/was?No, not Bobby... he was great. Clearly loves the Lions, but his takes are always based in research, facts and reason.
Bobby isn't a hot take guy... this other guy would go into hiding when Williams had down weeks (clearly didn't want to take his medicine) only to reappear when Williams had a blow up week to pound his chest. Fun times.
Kinda surprised. I understand getting ahead of a contract, but the dude has had one kinda decent season in 3 years. This is gonna look really smart or really dumb.Three year, $83 mil extension.
Lions are such a smart franchise. Get ahead of the asks on the players you want.
Good for Jameson & good for the Lions.
Pay attention, Jerruh, this is how the adults do it.
You obviously haven't been paying attentionKinda surprised. I understand getting ahead of a contract, but the dude has had one kinda decent season in 3 years. This is gonna look really smart or really dumb.Three year, $83 mil extension.
Lions are such a smart franchise. Get ahead of the asks on the players you want.
Good for Jameson & good for the Lions.
Pay attention, Jerruh, this is how the adults do it.
I'm kinda on this side a bit too. More that I just didn't see Williams as a priority compared to Hutchinson, Branch, LaPorta, and eventually Gibbs.Kinda surprised. I understand getting ahead of a contract, but the dude has had one kinda decent season in 3 years. This is gonna look really smart or really dumb.Three year, $83 mil extension.
Lions are such a smart franchise. Get ahead of the asks on the players you want.
Good for Jameson & good for the Lions.
Pay attention, Jerruh, this is how the adults do it.
They see him every day, they know who he is.Kinda surprised. I understand getting ahead of a contract, but the dude has had one kinda decent season in 3 years. This is gonna look really smart or really dumb.Three year, $83 mil extension.
Lions are such a smart franchise. Get ahead of the asks on the players you want.
Good for Jameson & good for the Lions.
Pay attention, Jerruh, this is how the adults do it.
More that I just didn't see Williams as a priority compared to Hutchinson, Branch, LaPorta, and eventually Gibbs.
Aidan will get his payday too once they're convinced he's fully recovered from his injury. Very soon, I imagine. That's how the Lions roll.I'm kinda on this side a bit too. More that I just didn't see Williams as a priority compared to Hutchinson, Branch, LaPorta, and eventually Gibbs.Kinda surprised. I understand getting ahead of a contract, but the dude has had one kinda decent season in 3 years. This is gonna look really smart or really dumb.Three year, $83 mil extension.
Lions are such a smart franchise. Get ahead of the asks on the players you want.
Good for Jameson & good for the Lions.
Pay attention, Jerruh, this is how the adults do it.
He must have impressed the hell out of the Lions this preseason. They didn't have to do this now.
This seems like a win-win.
This is so freaking brilliant by the Lions. Wow. So this is essentially them picking up his option and giving him two more years. Wow again. Set for life. Good job, Jamo. Lions can rest easy. WR1 in the house.
[Pride of Detroit] Williams was already under contract for 2025, and the Lions had already exercised his fifth-year option worth $15.5 million in 2026. At this point, it’s unclear if the extension is built off the fifth-year option, leaving him under contract through the 2029 season or if it’s including the fifth-year option, making him inked through 2028.
Count down to disappointment and suspension commences.Ladies and germs, you can now officially calm your nerves... I can confirm that I own him in 2 out of 2 leagues now.
Please buckle your safety belts for takeoff.
may your line be forever slack and beers warm.
May you be right again.May you be right on this one.Count down to disappointment and suspension commences.Ladies and germs, you can now officially calm your nerves... I can confirm that I own him in 2 out of 2 leagues now.
Please buckle your safety belts for takeoff.
may your line be forever slack and beers warm.
Underdog NFL
Jameson Williams ranks among WRs since entering the NFL (min. 50 receptions):
16.8 yards per reception (4th)
9.8 yards per target (10th)
Yes, he will have better games ahead. Packers D looks like a top unit.That wasn't fun for any lions players but we still thinking potential stud? Im concerned
But oline looked bad, no ben johnson and tesla scoredYes, he will have better games ahead. Packers D looks like a top unit.That wasn't fun for any lions players but we still thinking potential stud? Im concerned
NEVER trust week 1That wasn't fun for any lions players but we still thinking potential stud? Im concerned
That wasn't fun for any lions players but we still thinking potential stud? Im concerned
The WR who finished 2024 as, roughly WR20 in PPR in both avg & total points (obviously different leagues lead to different outcomes but my league isn't that different) should be drafted as a borderline WR 4?That wasn't fun for any lions players but we still thinking potential stud? Im concerned
For fantasy purposes he will never be a stud on Lions without multiple injuries. Last year he was under drafted and this year he will be over drafted. His sweet spot needs to be around wr 35ish and probably player 80ish overall in regular leagues. He needs to be in your flex spot because he can win you weeks, but his floor is so low you don't want him as your wr 2 or 3. I would draft him higher in best ball or total point formats.
Im watching this Bear game, im not worried about Ben Johnson. They have so many weapons they have to be good. The oline is a concern plus packers d is great. Also Jared Goff outdoors.I'm concerned about the new play-calling being drastically inferior to what they had with Ben Johnson. I fear I underestimated this factor. They looked downright awful. Credit to GB defense but holy smokes I thought they looked really out of place the whole game.
I agree and, I am a little concerned. But, that was an already talented GB team that got the biggest possible morale boost just days before the game.I'm concerned about the new play-calling being drastically inferior to what they had with Ben Johnson. I fear I underestimated this factor. They looked downright awful. Credit to GB defense but holy smokes I thought they looked really out of place the whole game.
The WR who finished 2024 as, roughly WR20 in PPR in both avg & total points (obviously different leagues lead to different outcomes but my league isn't that different) should be drafted as a borderline WR 4?That wasn't fun for any lions players but we still thinking potential stud? Im concerned
For fantasy purposes he will never be a stud on Lions without multiple injuries. Last year he was under drafted and this year he will be over drafted. His sweet spot needs to be around wr 35ish and probably player 80ish overall in regular leagues. He needs to be in your flex spot because he can win you weeks, but his floor is so low you don't want him as your wr 2 or 3. I would draft him higher in best ball or total point formats.
Jakobi for sureStruggling with start/sit:
Jakobi meyers vs Jameson Williams.
Leaning towards Jameson. The packers defense seems legit, which makes me think that’s why the lions looked awful last week.
Plus, with a player like jamo, you have to live with the good and the bad. If he’s on your team, gotta live with the ups and downs to get his game winning weeks . . . Chasing points will likely lead to benching him for his good games and playing him on his bad games.
But . . . Jakobi seems like a lock for a lot of targets . . .
Now, I know this isn’t a start/sit thread, but the idea of needing to stick with him to get his blowup games, I thought was relevant.
What is everyone else doing this week?
Same.Going with Pearsall over JaMo this week, I think.
Jamo’s little brother is having a birthday Sunday, got everybody in the family in town from St Louis. Hasn’t talked to Antwaan Randle El or Ben since they left, “they’re not my coaches anymore.”
These are not concrete reasons to start Jamo. But I wouldn’t put too much stock into a one week sample size.
I’m expecting the Lions to play a much cleaner game. As we saw last night, the Packers are legit. Playing at home versus their old OC - how much motivation do you think that is fueling?
Lions haven’t lost 2 games in a row in 35 months.
I don't but that's the inherent issue with Jamo in fantasy is it's hard to ever know when to start him. I would say this regardless of how he performed last week.But I wouldn’t put too much stock into a one week sample size.