I before E except after C...lol. bustin'
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WR Jameson Williams, DET (4 Viewers)
- Thread starter Faust
- Start date
Another week, another Jamo parlay:
Jamo 100 receiving yards &
Jamo TD....+638
Add Gibbs 60+ rushing yards....+1732
I won enough in week 1 to pay for a season of these. I expect Jamo to have about 4 games of 100 yards recieving and a TD. Gibbs should be a lock for 60 yards rushing as the Lions will be looking to run more against a weaker run defense. The odds makers are still making a Jamo 100-1 receiving game where you only have to win 1 out of 7 games, which is profitable for the bettor IMHO.
Jamo 100 receiving yards &
Jamo TD....+638
Add Gibbs 60+ rushing yards....+1732
I won enough in week 1 to pay for a season of these. I expect Jamo to have about 4 games of 100 yards recieving and a TD. Gibbs should be a lock for 60 yards rushing as the Lions will be looking to run more against a weaker run defense. The odds makers are still making a Jamo 100-1 receiving game where you only have to win 1 out of 7 games, which is profitable for the bettor IMHO.
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Soulfly3
Footballguy
Jameson Williams Week 3 Outlook - Lions at Cardinals
Good lawd, it's so fun to watch Williams tear it up so far in 2024 as the WR8 in fantasy. This is the player that I loved as a prospect. Watching him harness his talent and rip secondaries apart has been a blessing. Williams has a 23.8% target share, a 47.2% air-yard share, 2.63 YPRR, and a 34.5% first-read share. Among 92 qualifying wide receivers, Williams is sixth in separation and ninth in route win rate. Oh, baby, those numbers all jump off the page. Williams will run about 71% of his routes against Sean Murphy-Bunting (71.4% catch rate and 89.6 passer rating) and Starling Thomas (42.9% catch rate and 69.9 passer rating).
Good lawd, it's so fun to watch Williams tear it up so far in 2024 as the WR8 in fantasy. This is the player that I loved as a prospect. Watching him harness his talent and rip secondaries apart has been a blessing. Williams has a 23.8% target share, a 47.2% air-yard share, 2.63 YPRR, and a 34.5% first-read share. Among 92 qualifying wide receivers, Williams is sixth in separation and ninth in route win rate. Oh, baby, those numbers all jump off the page. Williams will run about 71% of his routes against Sean Murphy-Bunting (71.4% catch rate and 89.6 passer rating) and Starling Thomas (42.9% catch rate and 69.9 passer rating).
Dez
Footballguy
I wish I was that lucky. Injuries have forced me to play Akers, Perine, Jeudy, Gesicki and Shakir all on the same team.
Lost 6 out of my first 7 draft picks this week and the only one I didn't was my QB so I lost every single starting position player.
Never seen anything like this in my 35 years of playing this game.
BassNBrew
Footballguy
Common sense should tell you to play both Duper and Clayton / Harrison and Wayne / Batman and Robin
Pip's Invitation
Footballguy
J Giles Band
Footballguy
Gotta love the victory lap 2 games in... a great start for Williams for sure. And your unbridled enthusiasm for him may yet be proven right.
Doesn't change flawed analysis. And the NFL season isn't a sprint. Don't pull up before the finish line. As always is the case, the proof is in the pudding. The season will tell the story... not the first 2 games.
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FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
I saw an interesting stat on reddit yesterday.
Nico Collins 2 weeks into his breakout season:
20 targets, 226yds, 1 TD
Jameson Williams 2 weeks into this season:
20 targets, 228yds, 1 TD
Doesn't necessarily mean much, and obviously there are some major differences (Nico broke out along a big QB upgrade and had little target competition on his team), but an interesting parallel.
It will be interesting to see what happens here. ASRB, Jameson, LaPorta, Gibbs. There are too many mouths to feed for all of them to have great season so we will see who is the odd man out. So far it has been LaPorta.
Nico Collins 2 weeks into his breakout season:
20 targets, 226yds, 1 TD
Jameson Williams 2 weeks into this season:
20 targets, 228yds, 1 TD
Doesn't necessarily mean much, and obviously there are some major differences (Nico broke out along a big QB upgrade and had little target competition on his team), but an interesting parallel.
It will be interesting to see what happens here. ASRB, Jameson, LaPorta, Gibbs. There are too many mouths to feed for all of them to have great season so we will see who is the odd man out. So far it has been LaPorta.
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
Bruce and Holt
Price and Moulds
Irvin and Harper
Ocho and Houshmanchampionship
This is a fun game!
Lion to myself
Footballguy
I’d start Jamo over Brian Robinson but it’s very close. Jamo is the upside play, B Rob being the safer play. Great team btw!
LoL....I love the denial. The narrative of the haters were:
- Jamo won't get the targets
- Jamo has lousy hands
- Jamo can't beat press coverage.
- Jamo is a lousy route runner.
Even just a two game sample has destroyed every single one of his negatives. He is getting more targets than even I thought. He is one of the best WR in the league at getting separation and winning routes. He is making great catches and is not dropping anything. Two games in fantasy is enough to either get panicked over a player or get excited about a player.
My analysis was flawed? What a joke of a comment. I was spot on with Jamo's talent, focus, effort, and production. So far Jamo has out produced my midrange projections and is trending towards my top end range.
barackdhouse
Footballguy
Flawed analysis is to expect the same target distribution as last year.
barackdhouse
Footballguy
The drumbeat all offseason was deafening. And we had seen his flashes. To expect the same target distribution as last year was always a terrible assumption. Agree it's too early for victory laps, but let's get real here. This 3rd year breakout, if it is indeed happening, should be surprising to absolutely nobody.
And that was my biggest beef, it should not have been a surprise. But not one expert called for it. Not one considered Jamo a viable WR2 or even a viable flex option. Everyone had him in the WR4/WR5/WR6 range.
BassNBrew
Footballguy
4 team league?
barackdhouse
Footballguy
Yep. I called it. I used to be an 'expert' of sorts in that I wrote about 40 articles a few years back and thought it was kind of a no-brainer. Not necessarily that he will remain startable and would have a full breakout, but that mathematically he was always *going* to be involved more and that LaPorta and others would suffer.
The status quo mindset is the absolute worst fantasy football approach. NFL team turnover around 16 players each year on average. This league is always churning and 3rd year breakouts don't check more boxes than him. The fact he sat out many games due to injury and suspension never seemed to be factored into their analysis. Which isn't just flawed. It's really dumb.
Anyway I hope it continues. Not sure how he doesn't continue to get fed targets considering the early results. I *do* agree to an extent that they must get LaPorta more involved simply from a non-fantasy perspective but I think the first two weeks have been real tough games and some Lions victories are coming. Hard not to feature Jamo. And why not? To continue the status quo with LaPorta from 2023? That isn't how the NFL works.
ffmail4me
Footballguy
I’ll take that as a compliment but it’s a 12 team dynasty league in its 9th season. I’ve just been incredible lucky with drafts and trades. Before last season made,a trade that ended up netting me the 1.1 pick to get Harrison even though I finished 3rd place. Year before got Jameson at 1.9, Brian Robinson at 2.9, McBride at 3.9. Got ETN at 1.5 year before, Jefferson at 1.9 the year before that. Don’t get me wrong I’ve had lots of bad picks in leagues but I have been very fortunate in this league. Never have won it. It feel I’ve got a great shot this year!Alex P Keaton
Footballguy
Sorry, early results of what? Jameson? Or the offense? Because so far the offense looks average at best after being a juggernaut last year.
BassNBrew
Footballguy
One of the best dynasty teams I've seen. Enjoy this year.
rockaction
Footballguy
Put it in the Louvre. But just the tip. Maybe just Jefferson and Jameson. Make it a quivering and real-time art exhibition.
Nah, ffmail4me, that's a good team. And you got all the guys in their (reasonable or almost perfect ADP) draft slots, too, so it's not unthinkable. Good work.
ffmail4me
Footballguy
Thank you. For my final bow, here is the full roster in this league:
Lamar, Purdy, Young
Taylor, ETN, Brian Robinson, Gibson, Steele, Tyrone Tracy
Jefferson, Harrison, McLaurin, Jameson Williams, Evans, Addison, Diontae Johnson, McConkey, Doubs, Jeudy
McBride, Musgrave, Erick All
Other than the trade for Harrison Jr, this is all players drafted. One of my best teams for sure. That being said, watch me lose in the first round of the playoffs
BassNBrew
Footballguy
You've got to be a 20+ pt favorite most weeks.Thank you. For my final bow, here is the full roster in this league:
Lamar, Purdy, Young
Taylor, ETN, Brian Robinson, Gibson, Steele, Tyrone Tracy
Jefferson, Harrison, McLaurin, Jameson Williams, Evans, Addison, Diontae Johnson, McConkey, Doubs, Jeudy
McBride, Musgrave, Erick All
Other than the trade for Harrison Jr, this is all players drafted. One of my best teams for sure. That being said, watch me lose in the first round of the playoffs
barackdhouse
Footballguy
Jameson. And I literally addressed that the offense probably needs to get LaPorta more involved. Read that last paragraph again. The first two games have been tough matchups but Jamo has been getting open everywhere. Those results are impressive and worth repeating. And I would add that if they do get LaPorta more involved that it would likely mean some regression for Jamo. I predicted LaPorta was getting overdrafted and that Jamo would be valuable but admittedly I didn't really predict a breakout rather that he would be relevant. But again he has been getting open everywhere and this isn't the first time WRs develop and break out.
barackdhouse
Footballguy
They're 1-1 it isn't like they're toast or something.
barackdhouse
Footballguy
363 total yards week 1 (Overtime) and a victory
463 total yards week 2 and a loss but it was close
yea that offense sucks
463 total yards week 2 and a loss but it was close
yea that offense sucks
Alex P Keaton
Footballguy
Goff has looked meh. He’s 25th in QB rating, behind such luminaries as Fields, Minshew, Lawrence and Brissett.
None of this discounts your call on Jameson’s usage, or the decline in LaPorta’s targets. It really begs the question of whether or not the offensive talent is being maximized currently. Goff has 1 TD and 3 INTs, along with a 62.7% completion rate and QB rating under 70. He’s underperforming so far both numerically and eye test.
I’m simply asking if the offense needs to make some improvements, and I’m wondering out loud what that means for each player.
J Giles Band
Footballguy
Always entertaining seeing guys break their arm patting themselves on the back...
leftcoastheel
Footballguy
Hmm...
Hmm... throughout this thread seems like you're doing the same... except in the inverse.
TampaMike19
Footballguy
Only reason Lions had so many yards is because the Bucs barely broke a sweat on offense and their running back got injured. Lions run D is good and Bucs run game isn’t good. Bucs made the plays that the Lions didn’t.
There’s no questioning the fact the Lions can generate yards, but maybe they should kick some more field goals instead of being hyper aggressive and can’t finish in the red zone. Goff’s mobility probably kills the offense too on passing downs.
Not sure what is to be fixed. The target conversion rate for the WR’s is pretty atrocious this year and LaPorta isn’t getting targeted at all. The offense has the pieces to be a time of possession juggernaut along with motion and play action. Maybe go for less yards, chew up more clock, efficient passing, and get some points on the board vs going all in all of the time. Lastly, it keeps the defense fresh as their pass rush is crazy.
Offense is playing too high of a variance right now and the defenses are enjoying the bend but don’t break philosophy. All of those unconverted targets equals clock stopping. Games are won with good clock management and it’s clear the HC doesn’t have that. He has it in the press conferences but when the lights go on he goes balls to the wall.
There’s no questioning the fact the Lions can generate yards, but maybe they should kick some more field goals instead of being hyper aggressive and can’t finish in the red zone. Goff’s mobility probably kills the offense too on passing downs.
Not sure what is to be fixed. The target conversion rate for the WR’s is pretty atrocious this year and LaPorta isn’t getting targeted at all. The offense has the pieces to be a time of possession juggernaut along with motion and play action. Maybe go for less yards, chew up more clock, efficient passing, and get some points on the board vs going all in all of the time. Lastly, it keeps the defense fresh as their pass rush is crazy.
Offense is playing too high of a variance right now and the defenses are enjoying the bend but don’t break philosophy. All of those unconverted targets equals clock stopping. Games are won with good clock management and it’s clear the HC doesn’t have that. He has it in the press conferences but when the lights go on he goes balls to the wall.
The Lions have kicked a FG everytime it made sense this season. Dan's clock management has been rock solid despite the blunder where the FG unit ran onto the field too soon. The Lions respected the Bucs run defense too much as they had some injuries, but the Lions beat the Bucs relying heavily on the pass twice last season. Goff was 30 of 44 for 353 in the first meeting and 30 of 43 for 287 in the playoffs. Pass heavy game plan had just worked twice against the Bucs.
The Lions are 23-9 in their last 32 games. Pretty sure that is the second-best record in the NFL over that span behind only the two-time defending champs. Crapping all over Campbell makes no sense. Really don't get the Campbell hate. Hindsight is always perfect.
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Oof. You should’ve quit with your last post.
eighsse2
Footballguy
Technically the trade for Harrison counts as a player drafted too, since you traded for the 1.01 and drafted him with it.Thank you. For my final bow, here is the full roster in this league:
Lamar, Purdy, Young
Taylor, ETN, Brian Robinson, Gibson, Steele, Tyrone Tracy
Jefferson, Harrison, McLaurin, Jameson Williams, Evans, Addison, Diontae Johnson, McConkey, Doubs, Jeudy
McBride, Musgrave, Erick All
Other than the trade for Harrison Jr, this is all players drafted. One of my best teams for sure. That being said, watch me lose in the first round of the playoffs
barackdhouse
Footballguy
As for myself there are countless examples on this board of me owning up and eating crow for the calls I've got wrong. Jamo is one that I feel the entire market should have been on board with so I think he is actually a bit of an outlier in that sense. It's fun to be right about someone most people were wrong about. But obviously yes it is only 2 weeks and it's just miles and miles to go and all that.
I do expect them to make a concerted effort to get LaPorta more involved today and I have Jamo earning 7 targets catching 4 for 67. 2 carries for 19 yards. Flip a coin whether he finds the endzone. But some regression to the mean is in order.
barackdhouse
Footballguy
I do think they're weaker if they're not spreading it out to everyone more. But from any one game to the next, if there is a specific matchup that they can exploit, then I think the smart money is to target the heck out of that spot. But it could be any of them. But to your point, I think everyone's offenses kind of suck right now and lots of QBs look bad. Only 3 preseason games, etc. But also Tampa and a healthy week 1 Rams team were both really really tough opponents. If Goff performs just as good/bad as he has so far, they're still probably a favorite in most games.
To be true contenders yes they will need to improve. But it's too early to be concerned IMO. If he is playing poorly but they're winning and putting up numbers then that bodes well for how they will do as a team when/if he plays better.
ilianawindfae
Footballguy
I thought this guy was supposed to be good?!?!
J Giles Band
Footballguy
BassNBrew
Footballguy
Moe and Curly.
dipandglide
Footballguy
Goff is good, but he can't support everyone in this offense. There's going to be one or two guys that get table scraps each week.
Lansdowne
Footballguy
Yup. Kurt Warner he is not. That said I think Jamo will have more peaks than valleys this season.
Last week the Lions threw the ball 55 times. This week they ran it 43 times and only passed 23 times. With the Lions defense being improved, there may be more games they just pound the ball. But almost every team in the NFL passes between 55 and 65 percent of the time with a few outliers such as Baltimore who passed only 50% of the time last season. So this week's Lions game was on the extreme end of the PASS to RUN spectrum.
jm192
Footballguy
No.
La Porta has an ankle sprain. If he misses time, Jameson will be in line for more volume.
The running game was working. They ran it 40+ times and threw it 23. There just weren't a lot of chances in the passing game today. He averaged 10 targets per game through the 1st 2. He's not a 10 target per game guy, but he's not a 3 target guy either.
