What's new
Fantasy Football - Footballguys Forums

Welcome to Our Forums. Once you've registered and logged in, you're primed to talk football, among other topics, with the sharpest and most experienced fantasy players on the internet.

WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba, SEA (2 Viewers)

NFL Rookie Watch @NFLRookieWatxh
Ohio State coach Brian Hartline said he believes that Jaxon Smith-Njigba will be someone who “leads the league” in receptions and receiving yards. Multiple rival coaches have also noted that Njigba was the best WR in the Buckeyes’ 2021 WR room. That room also included Garrett Wilson, Chris Olave, and Marvin Harrison
 
Albert Breer @AlbertBreer
Ohio State WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba's first 40 time, on the watch of one scout: 4.53.
Sounds good to me. No one expected him to burn burn, but some were thinking he might test in the 4.6-4.7 range.
Exactly. His game is quick twitchy shifts to get open - head fakes to beat DBs inside.

it’s what makes him special.

Long speed is not his game, though 4.53 is faster than I’d expected.
 
Is that bad?
If it was at the combine I'd say it would have been a big plus. As it's at his pro day it's more in line of expected. @rockaction has mentioned in multiple threads that some people add .5 to 40 times that are at pro days. Tank Bigsby yesterday shaved a whole 1/10th of a second on his combine time yesterday. So this just means he's probably in that high 4.5-4.6 range vs combine times, which again I think is expected. Don't think it's moving any needles. Getting more into the mid 4.6's might have started to more of an issue for his draft stock.
 
Is that bad?
If it was at the combine I'd say it would have been a big plus. As it's at his pro day it's more in line of expected. @rockaction has mentioned in multiple threads that some people add .5 to 40 times that are at pro days. Tank Bigsby yesterday shaved a whole 1/10th of a second on his combine time yesterday. So this just means he's probably in that high 4.5-4.6 range vs combine times, which again I think is expected. Don't think it's moving any needles. Getting more into the mid 4.6's might have started to more of an issue for his draft stock.
Assuming you mean 0.05, that would put him at 4.58 which people here seem to think would have been good for him correct?
 
If it was at the combine I'd say it would have been a big plus. As it's at his pro day it's more in line of expected. @rockaction has mentioned in multiple threads that some people add .5 to 40 times that are at pro days
Scouts were adding that to the combine this year, Bucky and Jeremiah were talking about it. The Indy field is really fast, and it used to be really slow, it's interesting.

Whatever the field, that number for JSN is fine.
 
Is that bad?
If it was at the combine I'd say it would have been a big plus. As it's at his pro day it's more in line of expected. @rockaction has mentioned in multiple threads that some people add .5 to 40 times that are at pro days. Tank Bigsby yesterday shaved a whole 1/10th of a second on his combine time yesterday. So this just means he's probably in that high 4.5-4.6 range vs combine times, which again I think is expected. Don't think it's moving any needles. Getting more into the mid 4.6's might have started to more of an issue for his draft stock.
Assuming you mean 0.05, that would put him at 4.58 which people here seem to think would have been good for him correct?
Yes.

And to each their own on what they might want to adjust for non-combine 40's or not adjust at all. I'm not sure why anyone calls combine times "official" when NFL teams all do hand times and have different times listed for players then what we are told is official.

I don't personally think running a 4.58 40 would hurt his draft stock much, especially how well he performed in 3 cone and short shuttle and the position he plays. I guess someone could pull up one of those databases showing how much of a outlier a sub 200 pound WR who runs a 4.58 or slower goes in round one and conclude it would hurt him but again due to playing slot, his other workout numbers and fact he was not expected to run fast I don't think if he ran 4.58 at the combine it would hurt him much if at all. I could be wrong on that with how NFL views him, not how I do.
 

NFL Network's Ian Rapoport reports scouts recorded Ohio State WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba's 40-yard dash between 4.48 and 4.52 seconds at his pro day.​

JSN crushed the agility drills at the combine but opted out of the 40, citing a lack of preparation for the individual event. Most believed he would have clocked a particularly slow time had he participated. Smith-Njigba proved his doubters wrong at Ohio State's pro day even if the scouts gave him a slightly faster time than he would have earned in Indy. As long as his long speed wasn't disastrous, JSN was set to be the heavy favorite to come off the board first among receivers. This time should all but cement him as the top receiver prospect in league circles.
 
Doesn't matter what they add. They needed to know he wasn't slow. They knew he wasn't world class fast. He can't be running a 4.7 out there.

(Oh yeah??? What about Anquan Boldin??? Yeah, that's what I thought....)
 
Beautiful number for JSN. It’s wheels up now, just need that 1st round draft capital and a nice landing spot.

What’s the dream team for JSN’s dynasty value?
 
I usually trust draftscout on pro day times. Initial reports tend to be fast.

But draftscout takes a few days to post their numbers, so for now I'd go with @DevuEusuf who has JSN at 4.55 based on counting frames from the video (but this has more uncertainty than usual because of the angle of the video).
 
I usually trust draftscout on pro day times. Initial reports tend to be fast.

But draftscout takes a few days to post their numbers, so for now I'd go with @DevuEusuf who has JSN at 4.55 based on counting frames from the video (but this has more uncertainty than usual because of the angle of the video).
Feels like it doesn’t really matter. He’s somewhere between 4.48 and 4.59 which is the range we wanted. The box has been checked for NFL level speed.
 
I usually trust draftscout on pro day times. Initial reports tend to be fast.

But draftscout takes a few days to post their numbers, so for now I'd go with @DevuEusuf who has JSN at 4.55 based on counting frames from the video (but this has more uncertainty than usual because of the angle of the video).
Feels like it doesn’t really matter. He’s somewhere between 4.48 and 4.59 which is the range we wanted. The box has been checked for NFL level speed.
🎯

Sub 4.6 is all I needed to see, but even then he’s the WR1 in this class based on skill set & projected role.
 
Beautiful number for JSN. It’s wheels up now, just need that 1st round draft capital and a nice landing spot.

What’s the dream team for JSN’s dynasty value?
KC
LAC
NYG
MIN

Maybe a couple others.
Vikings and Giants seem much less than ideal
Vikings he’s got a super alpha taking double coverage, and can sponge up targets in the middle of the field. They just released Thielen, and while I’d hate it for my KJO shares, I think he could be a fine FF player in MIN.

NYG lacks weapons. He’d be an immediate contributor to that receiving corps.

Hey, we all have our takes. I see those two teams as good landing spots for him.

KC would obviously be the crown jewel, paired up with Mahomes.

LAC we might have to wait a year for his production, though Allen & Williams aren’t exactly the pictures of health.
 
A 4.55 is not a good time. Anything over 4.55 becomes a problem for most receivers in the NFL. Add .05 on to his time and you've got a 4.6.

Not that great, but nobody expected him to be real fast, I guess.
 
Last edited:
This guy won’t play outside in the NFL. I doubt it. I don’t draft guys over 4.55. He’s no deep threat.
There's nothing not to like, but he needs a lot of targets. A lot of factors affect that over a career. Jarvis Landry had monster target numbers, because he played for years on teams with bad WRs.

JSN can go to a bad WR room, but that can change in a year.
 
I think I hate everyone in this draft but Bijan.

Enjoy
When looking at WR rankings, if you scroll by the guys under 5'11, you wind up scrolling quite a bit. If you go by consensus, there's a bunch of slot guys on Day 2.

I think I am a bit more interested in taking a look at round 3-4-5 types who maybe check all the boxes, and could develop. I was just reading that in 2021, the WR who led the country in 15+ yard receptions was Dontayvion Wicks, in front of JSN and Jordan Addison. He had a down year in 2022, but he has all the tools. In IDP leagues, this guy will probably be a 4th/5th rounder.

Some of these slot guys will be good, but not too many of those little slot guys move the needle in fantasy, They can be startable, but you can always get a startable WR.

Lots might change after the draft, but my vibe is that I might rather trade down out of the 2nd round of rookie drafts. And I am usually a collector of 2nd round picks.
 
It's amazing how much scouts and teams bank on the 40 times of WRs in making their draft assessments.

I'm sure the data is out there, but I'd love to see the correlation over time of fantasy points per game versus clocked 40 times.
 
This guy won’t play outside in the NFL. I doubt it. I don’t draft guys over 4.55. He’s no deep threat.
I am seeing 4.48-4.53 as the times measured by scouts at the pro day. Even if you add the 0.05 that puts him in the 4.53-4.58 range which I’m very comfortable with.
 
It's amazing how much scouts and teams bank on the 40 times of WRs in making their draft assessments.

I'm sure the data is out there, but I'd love to see the correlation over time of fantasy points per game versus clocked 40 times.
There is basically none. There’s certainly an optimal range and when a guy is too slow his chances really fall off. However, there’s no data (I’ve seen) that says a guy running a 4.42 will outperform a 4.52 guy at a significant percentage. With JSN, he’s not a deep threat anyway. He’s a guy who is always open. Think Kupp, Keenan, Amon, Jarvis Landry. Those guys all got knocked for their speed as well and had monster ppr seasons.
 
It's amazing how much scouts and teams bank on the 40 times of WRs in making their draft assessments.

I'm sure the data is out there, but I'd love to see the correlation over time of fantasy points per game versus clocked 40 times.
There is basically none. There’s certainly an optimal range and when a guy is too slow his chances really fall off. However, there’s no data (I’ve seen) that says a guy running a 4.42 will outperform a 4.52 guy at a significant percentage. With JSN, he’s not a deep threat anyway. He’s a guy who is always open. Think Kupp, Keenan, Amon, Jarvis Landry. Those guys all got knocked for their speed as well and had monster ppr seasons.
Good points - I have nothing to back it up, but it seems that despite all this, scouts and GMs seem to continue to base their decisions in large part on the small differentials in 40 times.
 
Good points - I have nothing to back it up, but it seems that despite all this, scouts and GMs seem to continue to base their decisions in large part on the small differentials in 40 times.
Yeah maybe it’s just human nature? Also there could be a competitive advantage that speed has that doesn’t show up in box scores. Maybe the faster guys just make more space for other players or cause defenses to make special adjustments.

Also a lot of teams are moving away from the 40 and instead looking at game gps data. The Lions are one of those teams.GM Brad Holmes talked about when he was with the Rams, teams were down on Cooper Kupp because of his slow 40 but the Rams had college GPS data that showed on the field, Kupp was fast. Holmes also said when Amon Ra ran his 4.61 forty, they whole staff cheered because they knew it meant he would be available late in the draft.
 
Good points - I have nothing to back it up, but it seems that despite all this, scouts and GMs seem to continue to base their decisions in large part on the small differentials in 40 times.
Yeah maybe it’s just human nature? Also there could be a competitive advantage that speed has that doesn’t show up in box scores. Maybe the faster guys just make more space for other players or cause defenses to make special adjustments.

Also a lot of teams are moving away from the 40 and instead looking at game gps data. The Lions are one of those teams.GM Brad Holmes talked about when he was with the Rams, teams were down on Cooper Kupp because of his slow 40 but the Rams had college GPS data that showed on the field, Kupp was fast. Holmes also said when Amon Ra ran his 4.61 forty, they whole staff cheered because they knew it meant he would be available late in the draft.
Interesting tidbit about the Lions - maybe not all teams have caught up to that mentality. Human nature sounds about right - the old adage "you can't teach speed" probably still holds for a lot of scouts/GMs.
 
Good points - I have nothing to back it up, but it seems that despite all this, scouts and GMs seem to continue to base their decisions in large part on the small differentials in 40 times.
I think what you are talking about is true, but I think you need to expand the athletic parameters that drive these decisions.

Meaning, if a fast guy gets taken over a slightly less fast guy, his entire testing profile enters into it. Maybe he jumped 40 inches, and other guy jumped 35. When DK Metcalf came out, he had a terrible agility drills. This was discussed quite a bit when he was coming out. I am sure it bumped him down the boards for some teams.
Pass rushers who have less than ideal agility numbers is a major problem for scouts. And you see more productive players sliding behind athletes. Check out Nolan Smith from Georgia. Insane workouts, he was a team leader for Georgia, set the edge really well, and he LOOKS like a bendy pass rusher, but he didn't do it in college. Plus he is small for a DE, really small. Meantime, Tui from USC led the country in sacks, and has an NFL body, but he's mocked behind Smith right now.

This will be a good draft for spotting some workout warriors who get drafted over better football players.
 

Users who are viewing this thread

Top