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WR Josh Downs, IND (1 Viewer)

JC @JCJDynasty
Josh Downs is a guy that isn’t getting as much hype as I thought he would be:

5’10 175lbs

Analytically:

🐏 35.6% Dom. Rating
🐏 19.1 breakout age (87th %)
🐏 39.2% target share (99th %)

My thoughts on the film in the comments:
#NFLDraft2023
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The first and second plays illustrate how Downs is able to create separation in the slot by using his quickness or elevating above his defender.
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The 3rd clip shows his ability to cut on a dime and lose his man even in the redzone where things move a lot faster and the windows are smaller, just crazy separation from Downs here.
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The fourth clip shows his ability to stack his defender, manipulate with his head and burst away creating separation and an easy pitch and catch. Then the YAC ability to take a simple out route the distance. This kid is a weapon.
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The 5th and 7th clips I just put in to show that Josh Downs is like that. Despite his size he won’t be backing down from defenders.

The 6th clip showcases his ability to track the ball. It’s a difficult thing to, looks more like a outfielder in baseball tracking that pass.
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James Chafin @jchafin379
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Who would you compare him to currently?
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JC @JCJDynasty
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He’s got some Tyler lockett in his game in his ability to track the ball, but he’s better after the catch than TL. I think he’s twitchy like WanDale Robinson, but a better route runner. So those would be my two players. Cross between lockett and WanDale.
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NFL Rookie Watch @NFLRookieWatxh
Josh Downs’ routes are TOO clean 😳

Downs said that after his Pro Day workout today, the Steelers told him it was one of the “cleanest” workouts they’ve seen.

The Tar Heels WR is currently projected to come off the board within the Top-50 picks.
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Travon Miles @TrayABC11
Josh Downs MOVING on the three-cone drill. 💨

Heard from one scout:

“The fastest I’ve seen.”
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Some things that stood out to me watching one of his full games. He seemed disinterested in blocking. Had poor body language when the ball didn’t go his way or was a poor throw. You could tell when the play wasn’t coming to him as he took plays off.

It was only one game but it left me feeling meh. I thought he had a great combine, looked fantastic in all the WR drills. And in his highlights he’s shifty, explosive with great hands. Will need to watch more but right now… meh. Being a small guy I don’t want to question your heart, effort, and you putting yourself over team mentality. Leave that for the stud, athletically gifted, prototypical sized divas.
 
LINK to video
-------------------
The Draft Network
@TheDraftNetwork
“I like players that I can put on an island and get the job done.” Josh Downs has proved that he is worthy of being in the tier 1 WR conversation and
@DP_NFL
is choosing him every time
💪
 
Joe O’Leary @TheHQNerd
Josh Downs might be on the smaller side but he checks off a lot of boxes ✅

Early Declare
Breakout Age 19.1
Dominator 35.4
BS RYPTPA 3.49
BS TD Share 44%
BS Target Share 39.2%

The tape matches the numbers
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Notes:

BS = Best Season
RYPTPA = Rec Yards Per Team Pass Attempt
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Downs might be utilized mostly in the slot but he’s not your normal slot receiver

Downs is a field stretcher and a threat vertically
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I watch the tape and have a hard time NOT loving the guy. He'll play slot somewhere and catch 80+ balls a year. He's quick, he's always open. He uses his feet to set up the defender, and that will translate for him at the next level.

For a "quick" guy, his 40 wasn't what I was thinking it would be. But he ran faster than ARSB.

I post this in every little guy thread, but Tyreke Hill and Jaylen Waddle were both sub 5'10. Their ESPN/Rotoworld/Yahoo pages say 5'10. But if you look up their combine heights, neither hit the mark. The NFL is changing and the little guy CAN have fantasy success. There's probably a limit. I'm still not going Tutu Atwell. But a sub 5'10 height isn't the death sentence I thought it was 2-3 years ago even.
 
jm192 said:
The NFL is changing and the little guy CAN have fantasy success.
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So true. And it's almost becoming that big guys are having trouble finding success in an era where teams are getting to the QB pretty quickly and offenses are designed to get the ball out quickly. They can't separate as quickly and that hurts, actually.
 
That's not to say that all things constant that I wouldn't rather have a bigger receiver. In fact, I'm probably more guilty than most in relying on size. But it's changing. And it's best to adjust one's priors before one gets left in the dust.
 
rockaction said:
That's not to say that all things constant that I wouldn't rather have a bigger receiver. In fact, I'm probably more guilty than most in relying on size. But it's changing. And it's best to adjust one's priors before one gets left in the dust.
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This is where I'm at.

I've always over-emphasized size. And have slowly been realizing I'm wrong for it.

From yesteryear, Randy Moss, TO, Andre Johnson, Calvin Johnson, and god knows how many others were 6'3 plus. Dez was 6'2. Chad Ohcocinco Johnson whatever he goes by these days was a short 6'1.

Just seemed you can't be a stud unless you were big.

And now we see example after example year after year.
 
jm192 said:
And now we see example after example year after year.
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Nathaniel "Tank" Dell is pushing the weight thing, too. That's what I'm having major trouble with. The weight of guys like Dell and Atwell. I'm still avoiding, but I like Dell's highlights.

One caveat: This could just be a bad WR class and all we have are pint-sized slot guys (besides Njigba and Johnson).
 
I hit the character limit in my Route Running thread, so I'm putting the full quotes and links for each player in their bespoke threads.

+ "savvy route-runner who shows the quickness and attention to detail to create separation" - https://www.fantasypros.com/2023/01/top-dynasty-rookie-wide-receivers-2023-fantasy-football/
+/- “crafty and sudden route-runner”, “great at alternating his speed and pace throughout the route stem”, “can be knocked off his route stem when contacted”, “questions on how advanced his release package is” - https://thedraftnetwork.com/sr-prospect/josh-downs-a427aa10-9e49-4f91-8e1c-047aec5e7dad
+ "Downs has great route running ability" - https://www.steelernation.com/2023/03/27/steelers-2023-nfl-draft-profile-josh-downs
+/- "route running is effective and fun to watch, coaches will need him to become more disciplined and efficient" - https://www.nfl.com/prospects/josh-downs/3200444f-5768-6145-dd60-3fbae406310a
+ "crisp route running" - https://www.yardbarker.com/nfl/arti...na_wide_receiver_josh_downs/s1_17112_38677340
+ "a technician as a route runner and uses every part of his routes as a weapon" - https://www.bigblueview.com/platfor...olina-scouting-report-ny-giants-news-anlaysis
+/- "Separation burst gains space through turns/cuts", "Footwork and change of direction are sudden and sharp", "Needs to be more disciplined in route running" - https://www.nfl.com/prospects/josh-downs/3200444f-5768-6145-dd60-3fbae406310a
 

NBC Sports' Peter King believes the Bills are eyeing North Carolina WR Josh Downs in the 2023 NFL Draft.​

King has Downs, a productive slot wideout in college, going ahead of receivers Jaylin Wyatt of Tennesee and TCU's Quentin Johnston. "I know the Bills like him, and scouts think he can be a day-one starter in the slot, which would fit with Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis outside," King said. Downs averaged 8.1 receptions, 98.5 yards, 0.7 touchdowns per game during his three seasons at North Carolina. He played mostly in the slot, seeing 86 of his 104 targets from the slot in 2022. Downs would have some PPR appeal at the second or third target in the Buffalo offense. The Bills parted ways with last year's primary slot receiver Isaiah McKenzie.
RELATED:
SOURCE: FMIA
Apr 24, 2023, 12:41 PM ET
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Colts selected WR Josh Downs with the No. 79 overall pick in the 2023 NFL Draft. ​

A slot-only prospect because of his 5-foot-9, 171-pound frame, Downs made sure to enter the NFL on the back of monster production. Still four months shy of his 22nd birthday, Downs piled up 195 catches for 2,364 yards and 19 touchdowns in 24 games over his final two years in Chapel Hill. A fiery competitor, Downs compensates for his lack of size with toughness, “suddenness” and genuinely elite speed. Crafty and subtle, Downs is extremely hard to compete with out of the slot when he’s within 15 yards of the line of scrimmage. It is everywhere else that is going to be a question mark in the NFL. Adding muscle will be a must. Downs has the pedigree to become a legitimate middle-of-the-field compiler. He could enter a low-volume passing offense if QB Anthony Richardson takes over early in the 2023 season.
Apr 28, 2023 at 10:01 PM ET
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Colts signed No. 79 overall pick Josh Downs to a four-year contract.​

Downs should immediately slot in as Anthony Richardson's No. 3 option with Alec Pierce and Michael Pittman outside. If Shane Steichen is able to elevate Richardson's passing game early, Downs should benefit plenty from the arrangement, but that is somewhat uncertain given Richardson's relative inexperience at the position. Regardless of the short-term outlook, Pittman is heading into the final year of his rookie contract and Downs' fantasy stock would benefit greatly if Pittman left. Downs enters his rookie year in the WR4/WR5 conversation.
SOURCE: Aaron Wilson on Twitter
May 16, 2023, 5:00 PM ET
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Colts WR coach Reggie Wayne said third-round WR Josh Downs was the "best receiver at the Combine."​

"He's the player I think we were missing, A guy who's agile, who's versatile who can win on the option routes. I think he's the right fit for us. This draft was full of smaller guys. He stood out." Downs is expected to compete in the slot this preseason. The third-round rookie will be an immediate contributor for the Colts, and with Michael Pittman in a contract year, Downs has a path to a top-two role in 2024.
SOURCE: FOX 59
May 20, 2023, 11:07 AM ET
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Faust said:

Colts WR coach Reggie Wayne said third-round WR Josh Downs was the "best receiver at the Combine."​

"He's the player I think we were missing, A guy who's agile, who's versatile who can win on the option routes. I think he's the right fit for us. This draft was full of smaller guys. He stood out." Downs is expected to compete in the slot this preseason. The third-round rookie will be an immediate contributor for the Colts, and with Michael Pittman in a contract year, Downs has a path to a top-two role in 2024.
SOURCE: FOX 59
May 20, 2023, 11:07 AM ET
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I like the possibility of a Downs/Richardson stack
 

Colts coach Shane Steichen said rookie WR Josh Downs is dealing with a knee injury.​

"Josh has a little knee issue – nothing major though. I’ll leave it at that,” Steichen told the media at Colts' OTAs. The timing of the injury isn't great for Downs, but the Colts hope to have him for mandatory OTAs next month. When healthy, Downs will compete for Indy's slot role with Isaiah McKenzie.
SOURCE: Herald Bulletin
May 27, 2023, 10:39 AM ET
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Love the talent.

Are the Colts and Richardson going to be able to consistently support 2 fantasy relevant receivers?

Long term, I have my doubts. Short term, I'd be shocked.
 
NFL Rookie Watch
Josh Downs out there COOKING Bears DB’s 😳

Downs and Anthony Richardson have reportedly started to “ramp up” their chemistry as of late.

Shane Steichen (Colts HC) said recently that Downs can “do everything” and doesn’t drop a ball.
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Downs reportedly “shined” in today’s joint practice against the Bears, consistently running with the first team.The Colts rookie WR is a DB’s NIGHTMARE.(Via DomMirandaTV/TW)
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