False Start said:
dickey moe said:
Idiocy aside, if you own him, he's a hold. There are people still holding on to Aaron Hernandez in some of my leagues for God's sakes.
Why is he a hold? Seems like he is the definition of what type of fantasy player should be cut. No value to your team currently, his future is bleak, he commands a wasted roster spot, and he is a guaranteed 0 for at least a year. Whats the value? He may be a stud 2-3 years from now and still have the legal and trouble risks? Last year statistically was probably his best possible season anyways. You are assuming that he will stay in elite shape for the year off and out of trouble and will come back and still be an elite player.
There is no one worth that spot on my team, it provides no value just because he may be decent a few years from now, maybe?
Replace "Josh Gordon circa 2014" with "Peyton Manning circa 2011", and "legal and trouble risks" with "injury risk and surgical complications". That's why Josh Gordon is a hold in dynasty leagues.
Look, no one can accuse me of being a Gordon supporter or apologist. I have plenty of history in the form of articles, posts, and tweets saying that people were ignoring Gordon's risks (and Blackmon's, too), dating back as far as mid-October of last year. I've been leading the "Josh Gordon is being overrated" charge for quite some time. But now, the pendulum has swung way, way too far the other way. People are talking like it's a
fait accompli that he'll never again be fantasy relevant. Many are suggesting he'll never play another down of football. They are now overrating his risks and underrating his rewards. I would give even money that Gordon produces positive VBD again at some point in the next three years.
The point of this exercise is not to be automatically bearish on every risk. The point is to be objective and honest about every risk. One of the statistics that caused me to be so down on Gordon is the fact that two thirds of addicts suffer at least one relapse in their first year of treatment. Quibbles about the appropriateness of labeling Gordon an addict aside, I felt that represented a very real risk that the market was not pricing. The flip side of that, of course, is that 33% of addicts *DON'T* suffer a relapse in their first year of treatment. And now I would argue that some are not pricing *that* possibility into his value when they start talking about whether Gordon is even worth a roster spot anymore.