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WR Josh Gordon, KC (4 Viewers)

Ojaays said:
Adam Harstad said:
Ojaays said:
How long did Lynch get suspended for this latest offense?

Anyone want chime in here?
Suspension hasn't been handed down yet. The league's new policy is to wait for the legal process to play itself out, and Lynch's legal team keeps delaying the court hearing so the legal process is still pending.
Lynch pleaded guilty in February 2014.There have been nothing but crickets from the league since then.

So at that rate, I guess Gordon is on schedule to play in 2014 after all.
His (alleged) suspension is for a failed drug test, not the DUI - the DUI really wouldn't have any bearing other than possibly affecting his appeal (negatively) so the 2014 season is still in serious doubt.
Yeah, he might be looking at a year just for the first issue alone; and I doubt the league is going to look favorably on his appeal given the fact that he's been in the headlines twice more since this process was started. Then dealing with the speeding / weed thing under the personal conduct policy. Then back to the substance abuse policy for the DUI. Nothing's 100%, but as of this minute I wouldn't even bother to draft the guy at all in redraft leagues.
I've drafted plenty of stiff WRs in redraft that were healthy , had opportunity and did nothing, because they sucked.

I'll take a flyer on Gordon until I know he isn't playing at all.

I know for fact, if he isn't suspended the whole year, he will be drafted earlier, rather than later in my league.

 
Ojaays said:
amnesiac said:
my only question in regards to the Browns holding Gordon is this; does Gordon count on the 53 man roster or is there an exemption?

obviously they have the cap room, as i believe they don't have to pay him, but the salary counts against the cap.
If Gordon gets suspended he is Not part of the 53.

The Browns don't pay him, his cap number still counts but they have more than enough cap space.

There's no downside to Browns holding a wait and see approach.
And like the Jags and Blackmon, the Browns are not allowed by the CBA to cut him
The NFL has ruled that the Jags could cut Blackmon if they so desired, though Jacksonville has stated that they are not interested. And besides, Gordon hasn't even been suspended yet, so there's nothing preventing the Browns from cutting him right now if that's the route they really wanted to go.

 
Ojaays said:
amnesiac said:
my only question in regards to the Browns holding Gordon is this; does Gordon count on the 53 man roster or is there an exemption?

obviously they have the cap room, as i believe they don't have to pay him, but the salary counts against the cap.
If Gordon gets suspended he is Not part of the 53.

The Browns don't pay him, his cap number still counts but they have more than enough cap space.

There's no downside to Browns holding a wait and see approach.
And like the Jags and Blackmon, the Browns are not allowed by the CBA to cut him
The NFL has ruled that the Jags could cut Blackmon if they so desired, though Jacksonville has stated that they are not interested. And besides, Gordon hasn't even been suspended yet, so there's nothing preventing the Browns from cutting him right now if that's the route they really wanted to go.
I understand the thought process on cutting him, but I also see why the Browns would be reluctant. 23 years old and possibly misses one season. If he straightens his life around he would have a whole lot of football left in him.

 
The NFL has ruled that the Jags could cut Blackmon if they so desired, though Jacksonville has stated that they are not interested. And besides, Gordon hasn't even been suspended yet, so there's nothing preventing the Browns from cutting him right now if that's the route they really wanted to go.
I understand the thought process on cutting him, but I also see why the Browns would be reluctant. 23 years old and possibly misses one season. If he straightens his life around he would have a whole lot of football left in him.
Right. If I were the Browns, there's no chance I'd cut Gordon unless his presence on the team was starting to negatively affect the locker room or something. Same for Blackmon and the Jags. They're both cheap enough that it really just amounts to cutting off your nose to spite your face. I merely wanted to address the question of whether the Browns could cut Gordon if they were so inclined. It is my understanding that that is within their power, if they should want to do so.

 
False Start said:
Ojaays said:
If I'm a Gordon owner, I'm also holding until it plays out.
So what made you join the site and start all your posting in this one thread today after signing up just two days ago, how did you hear about FBG? I always like hearing how new people got the urge to start posting.
:lmao:

:missing:

Just put the Giants shirt back on, and c'mon back, already. :D

 
False Start said:
Ojaays said:
If I'm a Gordon owner, I'm also holding until it plays out.
So what made you join the site and start all your posting in this one thread today after signing up just two days ago, how did you hear about FBG? I always like hearing how new people got the urge to start posting.
:lmao:

:missing:

Just put the Giants shirt back on, and c'mon back, already. :D
Nope, got the wrong guy.

But, he was rather entertaining, and that's something.

 
False Start said:
Ojaays said:
If I'm a Gordon owner, I'm also holding until it plays out.
So what made you join the site and start all your posting in this one thread today after signing up just two days ago, how did you hear about FBG? I always like hearing how new people got the urge to start posting.
:lmao:

:missing:

Just put the Giants shirt back on, and c'mon back, already. :D
Nope, got the wrong guy.

But, he was rather entertaining, and that's something.
You are both named after bands...very different kind of music for sure...but a coincidence nonetheless. Hmm...

 
Will be interesting to see how it plays out if he has legitimate grounds for the appeal. I still tend to think there is something compelling about this particular appeal, but who knows.

If he's simply throwing himself upon the mercy of the league I don't see him getting any leniency given the negative PR storm he's caused.

 
Ojaays said:
False Start said:
Ojaays said:
If I'm a Gordon owner, I'm also holding until it plays out.
So what made you join the site and start all your posting in this one thread today after signing up just two days ago, how did you hear about FBG? I always like hearing how new people got the urge to start posting.
I've been a FBG member for a few years, use the site every year for my fantasy teams, it's great. I just never had the time to get around to posting. Finally found a little and I imagine I'll post in more than just one thread eventually. I have to start getting ready for season so I'll start looking at things a little more closely .

I love the FBG podcasts, great info, maybe the best info going during the season.

This thread was intriguing and full disclosure, I'm a huge Gordon fan, the dude has crazy skills.
I smell robot....

 
Shout out to Soulfly......Through the years I've seen many a poster hang their ### out, only to come out looking foolish. I've also seen those same posters come back in and eat a huge helping of crow.........and lastly I have also seen the majority of the other members welcome them back with no hard feelings. As in life, not everybody is going to agree with you or even like you. Hell I couldn't tell if you were serious or kidding in most cases but you were fun to watch. C'mon back, take on the chin and lets move forward.
Agree with this, Soulfly could still credibly say, I think that the league may have given him a minimal suspension under the former facts, but since then circumstances have changed, and my opinion has as well. I don't think he should get a hard time for that at all.

 
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Yeah, he might be looking at a year just for the first issue alone; and I doubt the league is going to look favorably on his appeal given the fact that he's been in the headlines twice more since this process was started. Then dealing with the speeding / weed thing under the personal conduct policy. Then back to the substance abuse policy for the DUI. Nothing's 100%, but as of this minute I wouldn't even bother to draft the guy at all in redraft leagues.
I still would. In my most recent set of rankings, he came out about 67th or so. When it comes down to a choice between Gordon and Rishard Matthews or Nate Washington, I will continue to take Josh Gordon as long as the chances of him getting a year-long suspension are a tenth of a percent less than 100%.

He also wound up checking in at WR47 in dynasty, which does in fact move me towards the upper end of rankers on him. I've got offers out in all leagues. With that upside, and at that price, why not be the Nassim Taleb of fantasy football, acknowledge that we know nothing, and start betting on wild improbabilities with massive payoffs?

 
Yeah, he might be looking at a year just for the first issue alone; and I doubt the league is going to look favorably on his appeal given the fact that he's been in the headlines twice more since this process was started. Then dealing with the speeding / weed thing under the personal conduct policy. Then back to the substance abuse policy for the DUI. Nothing's 100%, but as of this minute I wouldn't even bother to draft the guy at all in redraft leagues.
I still would. In my most recent set of rankings, he came out about 67th or so. When it comes down to a choice between Gordon and Rishard Matthews or Nate Washington, I will continue to take Josh Gordon as long as the chances of him getting a year-long suspension are a tenth of a percent less than 100%.

He also wound up checking in at WR47 in dynasty, which does in fact move me towards the upper end of rankers on him. I've got offers out in all leagues. With that upside, and at that price, why not be the Nassim Taleb of fantasy football, acknowledge that we know nothing, and start betting on wild improbabilities with massive payoffs?
I'd be more inclined to take a flyer in dynasty than in redraft, personally. I think the chances of him playing in 2014 are really pretty close to zero at this point.

 
Shout out to Soulfly......Through the years I've seen many a poster hang their ### out, only to come out looking foolish. I've also seen those same posters come back in and eat a huge helping of crow.........and lastly I have also seen the majority of the other members welcome them back with no hard feelings. As in life, not everybody is going to agree with you or even like you. Hell I couldn't tell if you were serious or kidding in most cases but you were fun to watch. C'mon back, take on the chin and lets move forward.
Agree with this, Soulfly could still credibly say, I think that the league may have given him a minimal suspension under the former facts, but since then circumstances have changed, and my opinion has as well. I don't think he should get a hard time for that at all.
Except until his recent silence after the DUI arrest, he continued to say "it doesn't matter that he got stopped for speeding with weed in his car, it wasn't his," and even after that came out, he went from a 4-6 game suspension to his prediction, to no suspension at all.

I don't care about his credibility or lack thereof, but he doesn't really have a leg to stand on with regards to changing his opinion because the circumstances changed, b/c that's not really what happened.

 
Ojaays said:
amnesiac said:
my only question in regards to the Browns holding Gordon is this; does Gordon count on the 53 man roster or is there an exemption?

obviously they have the cap room, as i believe they don't have to pay him, but the salary counts against the cap.
If Gordon gets suspended he is Not part of the 53.

The Browns don't pay him, his cap number still counts but they have more than enough cap space.

There's no downside to Browns holding a wait and see approach.
There shouldn't be a cap number if he's suspended for the whole year.

He gets no salary while suspended, so the cap number for his salary is zero.

The portion of his signing bonus that would have otherwise counted for this year, I believe is moved into next year (as an extra year is effectively added onto the contract).

If he got a roster bonus or workout bonus this year, that would count. If he signed an extension this offseason, part of the signing bonus for that might count this year.

But aside from those things, I think his cap number is zero for this year.

 
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Yeah, he might be looking at a year just for the first issue alone; and I doubt the league is going to look favorably on his appeal given the fact that he's been in the headlines twice more since this process was started. Then dealing with the speeding / weed thing under the personal conduct policy. Then back to the substance abuse policy for the DUI. Nothing's 100%, but as of this minute I wouldn't even bother to draft the guy at all in redraft leagues.
I still would. In my most recent set of rankings, he came out about 67th or so. When it comes down to a choice between Gordon and Rishard Matthews or Nate Washington, I will continue to take Josh Gordon as long as the chances of him getting a year-long suspension are a tenth of a percent less than 100%.

He also wound up checking in at WR47 in dynasty, which does in fact move me towards the upper end of rankers on him. I've got offers out in all leagues. With that upside, and at that price, why not be the Nassim Taleb of fantasy football, acknowledge that we know nothing, and start betting on wild improbabilities with massive payoffs?
x2. I started drafting him in re-draft, best ball leagues last month. He didn't cost more than a 15th rounder (Roughly WR55 in a 22 round draft) and he's no more than WR6 on any team. Best ball is essentially winner takes all, so you have to go out on a limb and take shots late. I'm obviously not feeling as optimistic after his recent arrest, but his cost was minimal and his upside is huge. Even if it doesn't work out, I took a stab at it and hitting home runs late helps you win leagues, my friends.

 
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Yeah, he might be looking at a year just for the first issue alone; and I doubt the league is going to look favorably on his appeal given the fact that he's been in the headlines twice more since this process was started. Then dealing with the speeding / weed thing under the personal conduct policy. Then back to the substance abuse policy for the DUI. Nothing's 100%, but as of this minute I wouldn't even bother to draft the guy at all in redraft leagues.
I still would. In my most recent set of rankings, he came out about 67th or so. When it comes down to a choice between Gordon and Rishard Matthews or Nate Washington, I will continue to take Josh Gordon as long as the chances of him getting a year-long suspension are a tenth of a percent less than 100%.

He also wound up checking in at WR47 in dynasty, which does in fact move me towards the upper end of rankers on him. I've got offers out in all leagues. With that upside, and at that price, why not be the Nassim Taleb of fantasy football, acknowledge that we know nothing, and start betting on wild improbabilities with massive payoffs?
I'd be more inclined to take a flyer in dynasty than in redraft, personally. I think the chances of him playing in 2014 are really pretty close to zero at this point.
I would agree, but I find the distinction between pretty close to zero and zero to be especially meaningful. If I'm in the 20th round, I'd much rather have a 1% chance at a guy who could single-handedly win me my league than Nate Washington, who is pretty much a 75% chance at being juuuuuuuust barely over waiver-quality.

 
Yeah, he might be looking at a year just for the first issue alone; and I doubt the league is going to look favorably on his appeal given the fact that he's been in the headlines twice more since this process was started. Then dealing with the speeding / weed thing under the personal conduct policy. Then back to the substance abuse policy for the DUI. Nothing's 100%, but as of this minute I wouldn't even bother to draft the guy at all in redraft leagues.
I still would. In my most recent set of rankings, he came out about 67th or so. When it comes down to a choice between Gordon and Rishard Matthews or Nate Washington, I will continue to take Josh Gordon as long as the chances of him getting a year-long suspension are a tenth of a percent less than 100%.

He also wound up checking in at WR47 in dynasty, which does in fact move me towards the upper end of rankers on him. I've got offers out in all leagues. With that upside, and at that price, why not be the Nassim Taleb of fantasy football, acknowledge that we know nothing, and start betting on wild improbabilities with massive payoffs?
I'd be more inclined to take a flyer in dynasty than in redraft, personally. I think the chances of him playing in 2014 are really pretty close to zero at this point.
I would agree, but I find the distinction between pretty close to zero and zero to be especially meaningful. If I'm in the 20th round, I'd much rather have a 1% chance at a guy who could single-handedly win me my league than Nate Washington, who is pretty much a 75% chance at being juuuuuuuust barely over waiver-quality.
I'd rather take a flyer on the WR1 in Carolina or Clevland.

 
Idiocy aside, if you own him, he's a hold. There are people still holding on to Aaron Hernandez in some of my leagues for God's sakes.

 
Idiocy aside, if you own him, he's a hold. There are people still holding on to Aaron Hernandez in some of my leagues for God's sakes.
Why is he a hold? Seems like he is the definition of what type of fantasy player should be cut. No value to your team currently, his future is bleak, he commands a wasted roster spot, and he is a guaranteed 0 for at least a year. Whats the value? He may be a stud 2-3 years from now and still have the legal and trouble risks? Last year statistically was probably his best possible season anyways. You are assuming that he will stay in elite shape for the year off and out of trouble and will come back and still be an elite player.

There is no one worth that spot on my team, it provides no value just because he may be decent a few years from now, maybe?

 
Idiocy aside, if you own him, he's a hold. There are people still holding on to Aaron Hernandez in some of my leagues for God's sakes.
Why is he a hold? Seems like he is the definition of what type of fantasy player should be cut. No value to your team currently, his future is bleak, he commands a wasted roster spot, and he is a guaranteed 0 for at least a year. Whats the value? He may be a stud 2-3 years from now and still have the legal and trouble risks? Last year statistically was probably his best possible season anyways. You are assuming that he will stay in elite shape for the year off and out of trouble and will come back and still be an elite player.

There is no one worth that spot on my team, it provides no value just because he may be decent a few years from now, maybe?
2-3 years? Or in 13 months.

Holding a roster spot for a year for a top 5 WR doesn't seem outrageous.

 
Chaka said:
False Start said:
dickey moe said:
Idiocy aside, if you own him, he's a hold. There are people still holding on to Aaron Hernandez in some of my leagues for God's sakes.
Why is he a hold? Seems like he is the definition of what type of fantasy player should be cut. No value to your team currently, his future is bleak, he commands a wasted roster spot, and he is a guaranteed 0 for at least a year. Whats the value? He may be a stud 2-3 years from now and still have the legal and trouble risks? Last year statistically was probably his best possible season anyways. You are assuming that he will stay in elite shape for the year off and out of trouble and will come back and still be an elite player.

There is no one worth that spot on my team, it provides no value just because he may be decent a few years from now, maybe?
2-3 years? Or in 13 months.

Holding a roster spot for a year for a top 5 WR doesn't seem outrageous.
Particularly when we don't even know the basis, let alone outcome, of his appeal.

No matter how unlikely, there is still a non-zero chance that he plays in 2014.

I wouldn't drop talent like that without 100% certainty.

 
False Start said:
dickey moe said:
Idiocy aside, if you own him, he's a hold. There are people still holding on to Aaron Hernandez in some of my leagues for God's sakes.
Why is he a hold? Seems like he is the definition of what type of fantasy player should be cut. No value to your team currently, his future is bleak, he commands a wasted roster spot, and he is a guaranteed 0 for at least a year. Whats the value? He may be a stud 2-3 years from now and still have the legal and trouble risks? Last year statistically was probably his best possible season anyways. You are assuming that he will stay in elite shape for the year off and out of trouble and will come back and still be an elite player.

There is no one worth that spot on my team, it provides no value just because he may be decent a few years from now, maybe?
Replace "Josh Gordon circa 2014" with "Peyton Manning circa 2011", and "legal and trouble risks" with "injury risk and surgical complications". That's why Josh Gordon is a hold in dynasty leagues.

Look, no one can accuse me of being a Gordon supporter or apologist. I have plenty of history in the form of articles, posts, and tweets saying that people were ignoring Gordon's risks (and Blackmon's, too), dating back as far as mid-October of last year. I've been leading the "Josh Gordon is being overrated" charge for quite some time. But now, the pendulum has swung way, way too far the other way. People are talking like it's a fait accompli that he'll never again be fantasy relevant. Many are suggesting he'll never play another down of football. They are now overrating his risks and underrating his rewards. I would give even money that Gordon produces positive VBD again at some point in the next three years.

The point of this exercise is not to be automatically bearish on every risk. The point is to be objective and honest about every risk. One of the statistics that caused me to be so down on Gordon is the fact that two thirds of addicts suffer at least one relapse in their first year of treatment. Quibbles about the appropriateness of labeling Gordon an addict aside, I felt that represented a very real risk that the market was not pricing. The flip side of that, of course, is that 33% of addicts *DON'T* suffer a relapse in their first year of treatment. And now I would argue that some are not pricing *that* possibility into his value when they start talking about whether Gordon is even worth a roster spot anymore.

 
False Start said:
dickey moe said:
Idiocy aside, if you own him, he's a hold. There are people still holding on to Aaron Hernandez in some of my leagues for God's sakes.
Why is he a hold? Seems like he is the definition of what type of fantasy player should be cut. No value to your team currently, his future is bleak, he commands a wasted roster spot, and he is a guaranteed 0 for at least a year. Whats the value? He may be a stud 2-3 years from now and still have the legal and trouble risks? Last year statistically was probably his best possible season anyways. You are assuming that he will stay in elite shape for the year off and out of trouble and will come back and still be an elite player.

There is no one worth that spot on my team, it provides no value just because he may be decent a few years from now, maybe?
Replace "Josh Gordon circa 2014" with "Peyton Manning circa 2011", and "legal and trouble risks" with "injury risk and surgical complications". That's why Josh Gordon is a hold in dynasty leagues.

Look, no one can accuse me of being a Gordon supporter or apologist. I have plenty of history in the form of articles, posts, and tweets saying that people were ignoring Gordon's risks (and Blackmon's, too), dating back as far as mid-October of last year. I've been leading the "Josh Gordon is being overrated" charge for quite some time. But now, the pendulum has swung way, way too far the other way. People are talking like it's a fait accompli that he'll never again be fantasy relevant. Many are suggesting he'll never play another down of football. They are now overrating his risks and underrating his rewards. I would give even money that Gordon produces positive VBD again at some point in the next three years.

The point of this exercise is not to be automatically bearish on every risk. The point is to be objective and honest about every risk. One of the statistics that caused me to be so down on Gordon is the fact that two thirds of addicts suffer at least one relapse in their first year of treatment. Quibbles about the appropriateness of labeling Gordon an addict aside, I felt that represented a very real risk that the market was not pricing. The flip side of that, of course, is that 33% of addicts *DON'T* suffer a relapse in their first year of treatment. And now I would argue that some are not pricing *that* possibility into his value when they start talking about whether Gordon is even worth a roster spot anymore.
i agree this would be a fair assessment once we know he is actually receiving treatment. and earlier there was a fair point that he has not actually been suspended yet.

the time to sell was obviously before his latest troubles. he would have to be a hold right now.

but i for one don't believe he is in the buy category until he stops making mistakes and makes an effort to get on the right track.

 
Chaka said:
False Start said:
dickey moe said:
Idiocy aside, if you own him, he's a hold. There are people still holding on to Aaron Hernandez in some of my leagues for God's sakes.
Why is he a hold? Seems like he is the definition of what type of fantasy player should be cut. No value to your team currently, his future is bleak, he commands a wasted roster spot, and he is a guaranteed 0 for at least a year. Whats the value? He may be a stud 2-3 years from now and still have the legal and trouble risks? Last year statistically was probably his best possible season anyways. You are assuming that he will stay in elite shape for the year off and out of trouble and will come back and still be an elite player.

There is no one worth that spot on my team, it provides no value just because he may be decent a few years from now, maybe?
2-3 years? Or in 13 months.

Holding a roster spot for a year for a top 5 WR doesn't seem outrageous.
Particularly when we don't even know the basis, let alone outcome, of his appeal.

No matter how unlikely, there is still a non-zero chance that he plays in 2014.

I wouldn't drop talent like that without 100% certainty.
At this point I am fairly resigned to the fact that he will miss 2014 (if not that would be great but it does not look good). And to be fair the reinstatement process could linger into next season, providing he doesn't #### up during his suspension which is no guarantee. Still, for a guy with Calvin Johnson potential I would be willing to "waste" a roster spot on him for 2014.

 
I agree with the unforseeability of the future and huge value if he turns his life around. Whether he is a hold or a cut for what you can get, though, depends a lot on roster spots. I'm a lot more likely to hold and see where Gordon finds himself after his appeal and in 12 months if I have 27 roster slots than where I have 14 and a chance to compete this season.

 
i agree this would be a fair assessment once we know he is actually receiving treatment.

and earlier there was a fair point that he has not actually been suspended yet.

the time to sell was obviously before his latest troubles. he would have to be a hold right now.

but i for one don't believe he is in the buy category until he stops making mistakes and makes an effort to get on the right track.
Obviously everything is relative. Everyone is a buy if the price is right. Everyone is a sell, too. If the Gordon owner in your league is even MORE convinced he's going to keep making mistakes than you are, then that means you should be able to settle on a price where it makes sense for you to acquire him.

 
Chaka said:
False Start said:
dickey moe said:
Idiocy aside, if you own him, he's a hold. There are people still holding on to Aaron Hernandez in some of my leagues for God's sakes.
Why is he a hold? Seems like he is the definition of what type of fantasy player should be cut. No value to your team currently, his future is bleak, he commands a wasted roster spot, and he is a guaranteed 0 for at least a year. Whats the value? He may be a stud 2-3 years from now and still have the legal and trouble risks? Last year statistically was probably his best possible season anyways. You are assuming that he will stay in elite shape for the year off and out of trouble and will come back and still be an elite player.

There is no one worth that spot on my team, it provides no value just because he may be decent a few years from now, maybe?
2-3 years? Or in 13 months.

Holding a roster spot for a year for a top 5 WR doesn't seem outrageous.
Particularly when we don't even know the basis, let alone outcome, of his appeal.

No matter how unlikely, there is still a non-zero chance that he plays in 2014.

I wouldn't drop talent like that without 100% certainty.
At this point I am fairly resigned to the fact that he will miss 2014 (if not that would be great but it does not look good). And to be fair the reinstatement process could linger into next season, providing he doesn't #### up during his suspension which is no guarantee. Still, for a guy with Calvin Johnson potential I would be willing to "waste" a roster spot on him for 2014.
I don't disagree, but rather was pointing out that this is not a fact yet.

People are proceeding as if the matter has been resolved, when it simply hasn't. As Adam mentioned, this pendulum has swung way, way too far way too quickly.

I'm not sticking my head in the sand here, I get the likelihood of the situation.

Thing is if there is a valid or procedural basis to that appeal, I don't see how the DUI changes the possible outcome. A DUI that in all likelihood gets plead down or outright diverted as a first offense.

If he doesn't have solid grounds for the appeal, his goose is cooked.

It may be a stretch, and it may be reading the tea leaves incorrectly, but something about his appeal sure gave me the indication it was more than just a mercy appeal. I guess we will see.

 
False Start said:
dickey moe said:
Idiocy aside, if you own him, he's a hold. There are people still holding on to Aaron Hernandez in some of my leagues for God's sakes.
Why is he a hold? Seems like he is the definition of what type of fantasy player should be cut. No value to your team currently, his future is bleak, he commands a wasted roster spot, and he is a guaranteed 0 for at least a year. Whats the value? He may be a stud 2-3 years from now and still have the legal and trouble risks? Last year statistically was probably his best possible season anyways. You are assuming that he will stay in elite shape for the year off and out of trouble and will come back and still be an elite player.

There is no one worth that spot on my team, it provides no value just because he may be decent a few years from now, maybe?
Replace "Josh Gordon circa 2014" with "Peyton Manning circa 2011", and "legal and trouble risks" with "injury risk and surgical complications". That's why Josh Gordon is a hold in dynasty leagues.

Look, no one can accuse me of being a Gordon supporter or apologist. I have plenty of history in the form of articles, posts, and tweets saying that people were ignoring Gordon's risks (and Blackmon's, too), dating back as far as mid-October of last year. I've been leading the "Josh Gordon is being overrated" charge for quite some time. But now, the pendulum has swung way, way too far the other way. People are talking like it's a fait accompli that he'll never again be fantasy relevant. Many are suggesting he'll never play another down of football. They are now overrating his risks and underrating his rewards. I would give even money that Gordon produces positive VBD again at some point in the next three years.

The point of this exercise is not to be automatically bearish on every risk. The point is to be objective and honest about every risk. One of the statistics that caused me to be so down on Gordon is the fact that two thirds of addicts suffer at least one relapse in their first year of treatment. Quibbles about the appropriateness of labeling Gordon an addict aside, I felt that represented a very real risk that the market was not pricing. The flip side of that, of course, is that 33% of addicts *DON'T* suffer a relapse in their first year of treatment. And now I would argue that some are not pricing *that* possibility into his value when they start talking about whether Gordon is even worth a roster spot anymore.
He's obviously easily worth a roster spot in dynasty leagues unless rosters are really shallow. I think it's pretty arguable whether he is in redraft leagues unless rosters are very deep. I pretty much agree with where you have him ranked currently -- but most of my dynasty leagues have 100+ WRs rostered vs my redraft leagues where 60ish is pretty typical.

 
How many issues and arrests does he have to have before you realize he is damage goods? I love how now some are still considering him a shoe in to return in 13 months. A lot of people who own him are holding out hope, as someone said, some people are still holding Hernandez, so that shows how reasonable some are, or how much denial they are in at times.

 
How many issues and arrests does he have to have before you realize he is damage goods? I love how now some are still considering him a shoe in to return in 13 months. A lot of people who own him are holding out hope, as someone said, some people are still holding Hernandez, so that shows how reasonable some are, or how much denial they are in at times.
How does any of that make him not worth a roster spot in a typical dynasty format? I'd put his chances of playing in 2014 at pretty close to zero, personally. I'd put his chances at ever playing another NFL snap at maybe 50 / 50. He's still easily worth more than the WR100ish crap at the end of everyone's benches.

 
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Would he only have to apply for reinstatement if its an indefinite suspension vs. a 14, 16 game, etc? If that indefinite is used then he'd be on Bkackmon's timetable correct? In which case were looking at two years most likely, right?

 
Would he only have to apply for reinstatement if its an indefinite suspension vs. a 14, 16 game, etc? If that indefinite is used then he'd be on Bkackmon's timetable correct? In which case were looking at two years most likely, right?
A player has to wait exactly one year to apply for reinstatement. So yes, if he does get suspended he's most likely looking at two year suspension since it will take several months after the application for the NFL to decide whether to reinstate him.

 
Would he only have to apply for reinstatement if its an indefinite suspension vs. a 14, 16 game, etc? If that indefinite is used then he'd be on Bkackmon's timetable correct? In which case were looking at two years most likely, right?
IIRC any violation in stage 2 results in a four gamer, and violation in stage 3 is indefinite, and the player can reapply after one year. We don't know for sure which stage Gordon was in prior to the first of the three recent incidents, but stage 3 seems pretty likely based on last year's suspension initially being four games and Gordon's own statements at the time.

 
How many issues and arrests does he have to have before you realize he is damage goods? I love how now some are still considering him a shoe in to return in 13 months. A lot of people who own him are holding out hope, as someone said, some people are still holding Hernandez, so that shows how reasonable some are, or how much denial they are in at times.
How does any of that make him not worth a roster spot in a typical dynasty format? I'd put his chances of playing in 2014 at pretty close to zero, personally. I'd put his chances at ever playing another NFL snap at maybe 50 / 50. He's still easily worth more than the WR100ish crap at the end of everyone's benches.
Exactly. It is completely reasonable to use a bench spot on a guy with this much proven talent. If he gets popped again during the suspension then the situation needs to be reevaluated but for now he is absolutely worth more than some of the jokers people are rostering.

And False Start is speaking as if it a foregone conclusion that he will never play another snap in the NFL. The bias seems to swing both ways.

 
How many issues and arrests does he have to have before you realize he is damage goods? I love how now some are still considering him a shoe in to return in 13 months. A lot of people who own him are holding out hope, as someone said, some people are still holding Hernandez, so that shows how reasonable some are, or how much denial they are in at times.
Do you have some information that some of us don't? Do you know how long his suspension is?

I love how some people are cutting him without even knowing what his situation actually is... talk about being unreasonable.

 
How many issues and arrests does he have to have before you realize he is damage goods? I love how now some are still considering him a shoe in to return in 13 months. A lot of people who own him are holding out hope, as someone said, some people are still holding Hernandez, so that shows how reasonable some are, or how much denial they are in at times.
Do you have some information that some of us don't? Do you know how long his suspension is?

I love how some people are cutting him without even knowing what his situation actually is... talk about being unreasonable.
Particularly considering that he still carries trade value in any league with decently deep benches. If you're done, just post something along the lines of "best offer takes Gordon." Someone will give something for him. Hell, I've been on the Gordon is over-rated bandwagon forever, and my tipping point would be somewhere in the mid / late 2nd round rookie pick range.

 
Would he only have to apply for reinstatement if its an indefinite suspension vs. a 14, 16 game, etc? If that indefinite is used then he'd be on Bkackmon's timetable correct? In which case were looking at two years most likely, right?
A player has to wait exactly one year to apply for reinstatement. So yes, if he does get suspended he's most likely looking at two year suspension since it will take several months after the application for the NFL to decide whether to reinstate him.
Are we certain that if Josh Gordon does not get reinstated before the 2015 season begins, he cannot be reinstated for the entire 2015 season? Couldn't he make it back by, say, week 4? Or week 8?

 
Would he only have to apply for reinstatement if its an indefinite suspension vs. a 14, 16 game, etc? If that indefinite is used then he'd be on Bkackmon's timetable correct? In which case were looking at two years most likely, right?
IIRC any violation in stage 2 results in a four gamer, and violation in stage 3 is indefinite, and the player can reapply after one year. We don't know for sure which stage Gordon was in prior to the first of the three recent incidents, but stage 3 seems pretty likely based on last year's suspension initially being four games and Gordon's own statements at the time.
Round and round we go, ####er. :Deniro voice:
 
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Yes he could...If you assume it takes 4 months after the 12 months is up, he would come back at the end of November 2015
I was more questioning league bylaws than timeline. Cstu seems confident that if Gordon's appeal isn't processed by kickoff of 2015, he'll miss the entire season. I was wondering if that's actually written somewhere in the substance policy.

 
False Start said:
dickey moe said:
Idiocy aside, if you own him, he's a hold. There are people still holding on to Aaron Hernandez in some of my leagues for God's sakes.
Why is he a hold? Seems like he is the definition of what type of fantasy player should be cut. No value to your team currently, his future is bleak, he commands a wasted roster spot, and he is a guaranteed 0 for at least a year. Whats the value? He may be a stud 2-3 years from now and still have the legal and trouble risks? Last year statistically was probably his best possible season anyways. You are assuming that he will stay in elite shape for the year off and out of trouble and will come back and still be an elite player.

There is no one worth that spot on my team, it provides no value just because he may be decent a few years from now, maybe?
Replace "Josh Gordon circa 2014" with "Peyton Manning circa 2011", and "legal and trouble risks" with "injury risk and surgical complications". That's why Josh Gordon is a hold in dynasty leagues.

Look, no one can accuse me of being a Gordon supporter or apologist. I have plenty of history in the form of articles, posts, and tweets saying that people were ignoring Gordon's risks (and Blackmon's, too), dating back as far as mid-October of last year. I've been leading the "Josh Gordon is being overrated" charge for quite some time. But now, the pendulum has swung way, way too far the other way. People are talking like it's a fait accompli that he'll never again be fantasy relevant. Many are suggesting he'll never play another down of football. They are now overrating his risks and underrating his rewards. I would give even money that Gordon produces positive VBD again at some point in the next three years.

The point of this exercise is not to be automatically bearish on every risk. The point is to be objective and honest about every risk. One of the statistics that caused me to be so down on Gordon is the fact that two thirds of addicts suffer at least one relapse in their first year of treatment. Quibbles about the appropriateness of labeling Gordon an addict aside, I felt that represented a very real risk that the market was not pricing. The flip side of that, of course, is that 33% of addicts *DON'T* suffer a relapse in their first year of treatment. And now I would argue that some are not pricing *that* possibility into his value when they start talking about whether Gordon is even worth a roster spot anymore.
Only if you also factor in Peyton's known work ethic and proven elite status over time. Not saying JG doesn't work, but Peyton is one of the best workers in the business.

 
False Start said:
dickey moe said:
Idiocy aside, if you own him, he's a hold. There are people still holding on to Aaron Hernandez in some of my leagues for God's sakes.
Why is he a hold? Seems like he is the definition of what type of fantasy player should be cut. No value to your team currently, his future is bleak, he commands a wasted roster spot, and he is a guaranteed 0 for at least a year. Whats the value? He may be a stud 2-3 years from now and still have the legal and trouble risks? Last year statistically was probably his best possible season anyways. You are assuming that he will stay in elite shape for the year off and out of trouble and will come back and still be an elite player.

There is no one worth that spot on my team, it provides no value just because he may be decent a few years from now, maybe?
Replace "Josh Gordon circa 2014" with "Peyton Manning circa 2011", and "legal and trouble risks" with "injury risk and surgical complications". That's why Josh Gordon is a hold in dynasty leagues.

Look, no one can accuse me of being a Gordon supporter or apologist. I have plenty of history in the form of articles, posts, and tweets saying that people were ignoring Gordon's risks (and Blackmon's, too), dating back as far as mid-October of last year. I've been leading the "Josh Gordon is being overrated" charge for quite some time. But now, the pendulum has swung way, way too far the other way. People are talking like it's a fait accompli that he'll never again be fantasy relevant. Many are suggesting he'll never play another down of football. They are now overrating his risks and underrating his rewards. I would give even money that Gordon produces positive VBD again at some point in the next three years.

The point of this exercise is not to be automatically bearish on every risk. The point is to be objective and honest about every risk. One of the statistics that caused me to be so down on Gordon is the fact that two thirds of addicts suffer at least one relapse in their first year of treatment. Quibbles about the appropriateness of labeling Gordon an addict aside, I felt that represented a very real risk that the market was not pricing. The flip side of that, of course, is that 33% of addicts *DON'T* suffer a relapse in their first year of treatment. And now I would argue that some are not pricing *that* possibility into his value when they start talking about whether Gordon is even worth a roster spot anymore.
Only if you also factor in Peyton's known work ethic and proven elite status over time. Not saying JG doesn't work, but Peyton is one of the best workers in the business.
I don't know that work ethic has all that much to do with recovery from neurological issues. Rehabbing from an ACL, yeah, sure, working out like a demon will probably help. But spinal cord injuries are just a "yes" or "no" thing I think, and nothing the player can do will have much effect on the outcome. I'm no brain surgeon, so take that with a grain or ten of salt.

 
False Start said:
dickey moe said:
Idiocy aside, if you own him, he's a hold. There are people still holding on to Aaron Hernandez in some of my leagues for God's sakes.
Why is he a hold? Seems like he is the definition of what type of fantasy player should be cut. No value to your team currently, his future is bleak, he commands a wasted roster spot, and he is a guaranteed 0 for at least a year. Whats the value? He may be a stud 2-3 years from now and still have the legal and trouble risks? Last year statistically was probably his best possible season anyways. You are assuming that he will stay in elite shape for the year off and out of trouble and will come back and still be an elite player.

There is no one worth that spot on my team, it provides no value just because he may be decent a few years from now, maybe?
Replace "Josh Gordon circa 2014" with "Peyton Manning circa 2011", and "legal and trouble risks" with "injury risk and surgical complications". That's why Josh Gordon is a hold in dynasty leagues.

Look, no one can accuse me of being a Gordon supporter or apologist. I have plenty of history in the form of articles, posts, and tweets saying that people were ignoring Gordon's risks (and Blackmon's, too), dating back as far as mid-October of last year. I've been leading the "Josh Gordon is being overrated" charge for quite some time. But now, the pendulum has swung way, way too far the other way. People are talking like it's a fait accompli that he'll never again be fantasy relevant. Many are suggesting he'll never play another down of football. They are now overrating his risks and underrating his rewards. I would give even money that Gordon produces positive VBD again at some point in the next three years.

The point of this exercise is not to be automatically bearish on every risk. The point is to be objective and honest about every risk. One of the statistics that caused me to be so down on Gordon is the fact that two thirds of addicts suffer at least one relapse in their first year of treatment. Quibbles about the appropriateness of labeling Gordon an addict aside, I felt that represented a very real risk that the market was not pricing. The flip side of that, of course, is that 33% of addicts *DON'T* suffer a relapse in their first year of treatment. And now I would argue that some are not pricing *that* possibility into his value when they start talking about whether Gordon is even worth a roster spot anymore.
Only if you also factor in Peyton's known work ethic and proven elite status over time. Not saying JG doesn't work, but Peyton is one of the best workers in the business.
I'm not saying that Josh Gordon is Peyton Manning. I'm saying that every statement False Start used to describe Josh Gordon would have also described Peyton Manning. No value to your team currently. His future is bleak. He commands a wasted roster spot, and he is guaranteed a 0 for at least a year. He may be a stud 2-3 years from now and still have the [risk of reinjury]. His best statistical seasons were probably behind him. You had to assume that he would be able to regain his elite conditioning after a lengthy rehab. If these particular statements were a good reason, in and of themselves, to drop a player... well then, we all should have dropped Peyton Manning in 2011. Also, while Gordon may not have Peyton's work ethic, I can name a hell of a lot more players who overcame serious addiction problems, got clean, and went on to have Hall of Fame careers than players who returned from having their neck fused and ever played another snap again.

Peyton and Gordon are obviously different people facing different issues and presenting a different set of risks. I'm just trying to show how a risk/reward proposition can still easily be worth rostering, even if the risk is extreme, provided the potential reward remains commensurate. And yes, the possibility- however remote- of having a clean and healthy 25-year-old Josh Gordon locked up certainly counts as "commensurate reward".

 
I don't know that work ethic has all that much to do with recovery from neurological issues. Rehabbing from an ACL, yeah, sure, working out like a demon will probably help. But spinal cord injuries are just a "yes" or "no" thing I think, and nothing the player can do will have much effect on the outcome. I'm no brain surgeon, so take that with a grain or ten of salt.
Work ethic is necessary when recovering from a spinal injury, but it is not sufficient to ensure recovery. Meaning: if you do not have the requisite work ethic, you will not recover, but just having the necessary work ethic alone does not guarantee success.

 
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For whatever it's worth:

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2097092-mike-freemans-10-point-stance-josh-gordon-will-be-back-but-wont-be-trusted

The punishment of Gordon is moving along almost two tracks. The alleged failure of the marijuana tests fall under the drug testing policy. The alleged DWI actually comes under Roger Goodell's disciplinary authority.

What is likely to happen, according to a number of team, league and union sources, is that some sort of deal will be worked out between Gordon and the NFL in which a singular punishment is given for the alleged failed drug tests and alleged DWI. It may not be a full season, I'm told. But the number of games Gordon will be suspended is still a mystery.
 
How many issues and arrests does he have to have before you realize he is damage goods? I love how now some are still considering him a shoe in to return in 13 months. A lot of people who own him are holding out hope, as someone said, some people are still holding Hernandez, so that shows how reasonable some are, or how much denial they are in at times.
How does any of that make him not worth a roster spot in a typical dynasty format? I'd put his chances of playing in 2014 at pretty close to zero, personally. I'd put his chances at ever playing another NFL snap at maybe 50 / 50. He's still easily worth more than the WR100ish crap at the end of everyone's benches.
Anybody not willing to hold him I assume also would not handcuff a stud RB in a high powered offense. You don't know the handcuff will see any playing time? Sure there is a risk of suspension, never playing again, never being the same player but he is very young and just had an elite season. He is worth a roster spot because if he plays again he has potential to provide elite WR numbers. Even if he came back for one more year in his career and posted elite WR numbers for one season his value is greater than that backup in case of injury that will never produce WR1 numbers.

 
Interesting article. I don't, however, know how the writer or anyone else can confidently state that Gordon will enter rehab and will be back in the NFL with any kind of certainty. He could just as easily be fine with the money he's already made and just continue on having fun with his life. If someone handed me a few million dollars in my early 20s, pre-wife, pre-kids, and my choices were to live it up and party like a madman for years vs knuckling down and working my butt off to make even more, I know what I would have done. I'm not wired like a professional athlete, but I don't think this is that black and white for anyone. No doubt teams would line up to get Gordon the minute he's reinstated. But what if he can't stay clean? Or if he just doesn't want to?

 

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