Elevencents
Footballguy
Until he has a 54 yard TD and everyone comes out of the woodwork to say “I told you so!”. Who has nothing to do tonight and wants to go back to the first few pages after the trade and line up a bunch of quotes so I can laugh?
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WR Josh Gordon, KC (3 Viewers)
- Thread starter Matt Waldman
- Start date
Steelers4Life
Footballguy
Weird that he wasn't part of the gameplan today. As a Steelers fan, I'm thankful that he wasn't. That said, aside from today's dud, his 8 games with the Patriots since he took on a starting role led to 35 catches, 619 yards, and 2 TDs. TDs have been lacking, but that's about it, and those are unpredictable.
If you'd tell me that a guy can be traded midseason to what everyone said was such a complicated offense, pick it up in less than a month, and then go on an 8-game pace of 70 catches and over 1200 yards, to me at least that's pretty impressive. People said he'd flame out, that he'd be suspended again, that he'd be an afterthought in the offense, and that he's too dumb to learn their playbook. Those people still look really, really stupid today even if he didn't do anything in a week that just happened to be a fantasy playoff week.
People who said he'd suck look just as dumb as people who thought he'd immediately become a #1 fantasy WR in New England.
Who'd have thunk that the biggest thing holding him back is actually Brady's lack of arm strength to get the ball downfield lol. As long as he keeps his head on straight, he'll be a good option next year with a full-offseason to prepare.
If you'd tell me that a guy can be traded midseason to what everyone said was such a complicated offense, pick it up in less than a month, and then go on an 8-game pace of 70 catches and over 1200 yards, to me at least that's pretty impressive. People said he'd flame out, that he'd be suspended again, that he'd be an afterthought in the offense, and that he's too dumb to learn their playbook. Those people still look really, really stupid today even if he didn't do anything in a week that just happened to be a fantasy playoff week.
People who said he'd suck look just as dumb as people who thought he'd immediately become a #1 fantasy WR in New England.
Who'd have thunk that the biggest thing holding him back is actually Brady's lack of arm strength to get the ball downfield lol. As long as he keeps his head on straight, he'll be a good option next year with a full-offseason to prepare.
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Steelers4Life
Footballguy
Steelers4Life
Footballguy
So, he changes teams and for 8 weeks he performs at a 70-1200 yard pace with a couple TDs on a new offense, and after his first dud since taking over a starting job, he becomes far less than that? What happened to all of the "he'll never be useful again" talk?
LOL the Shark Pool used to be so much better than this schtick and BS. I miss those days.
He's a RFA after this year I believe, so time will tell what happens with his situation. If he's back in New England heading into 2019, he should be a solid WR2 or a great WR3 if you can get him there. If you can find someone who still believes he's a WR1, I'd sell. But that's just about the only way. Only concern I have if he's still in New England is Brady's arm, and I'm sure there are better fantasy situations for him to land in.
LOL the Shark Pool used to be so much better than this schtick and BS. I miss those days.
He's a RFA after this year I believe, so time will tell what happens with his situation. If he's back in New England heading into 2019, he should be a solid WR2 or a great WR3 if you can get him there. If you can find someone who still believes he's a WR1, I'd sell. But that's just about the only way. Only concern I have if he's still in New England is Brady's arm, and I'm sure there are better fantasy situations for him to land in.
I recall about one of those posts for every 10 OMG he's the greatest talent ever, UNSTOPPABLE, huge upgrade in New England, will be the key to winning fantasy championships, those who believe will reap the rewards talk.
Steelers4Life
Footballguy
I never said it made any risk go away. I also said I don't value him as a WR1. I see him as a solid WR2 or a great WR3. I also wasn't one of the ones pumping him as a WR after the trade, either. Did he have that UPSIDE? Sure, he's talented enough to. But he wasn't going to immediately jump into a new offense midseason and displace guys like Edelman, Gronk, and White when Brady trusts them already. What he HAS done has been very impressive though.... and like I said, all those people who said he'd never amount to anything went crawling away.
But, at the same time, it's been a long time now since he had any issues. He was sober enough for long enough to get reinstated late in 2017, and he's had no problems in 2018 either. That means it's been at, near, or a little more than 2 full years since he's had issues. I'm not saying he'll never relapse, and there's always a chance. But those issues are now moving farther and farther into the rear view mirror and he seems to have taken some major steps.
Unless someone plays in a league full of idiots (granted those leagues do exist), getting traded to the Patriots wasn't going to cause someone to overpay for him or forget his history. So it was easy for anyone to give "advice" to trade him. His few months in New England have given his career an upward trajectory that didn't seem as possible before the trade, and that's a win even if he never becomes the true stud he might have been before his issues.
Steelers4Life
Footballguy
I could be wrong, but I don't remember that at all. I remember a zillion people chiming in with one-liners for all the reasons he'd fail and jumping all over people who thought this would be a good thing for him. Sure, some were overly excited about the situation he was going into, the timing of it, or the likelihood that he'd hit his ceiling, but far more were calling him eternally useless with the same useless sarcasm and attitude that's become normal around here.
He wasn't useless for the last 8 weeks. Far, far from it. Unfortunately he didn't score enough TDs to be as useful as his receiving stats would've been otherwise, but it's been a success for him in New England by just about any measure and his arrow is pointing up heading into 2019 as long as he stays sober.
It goes without saying that someone should trade him if another owner wants to trade for his upside only. But again, that's foolish advice to give someone, because it's basic common sense. He's a hold, because his talent is still greater than his perceived value to people who don't own him.
Steelers4Life
Footballguy
You know what real NFL players call our fantasy playoff weeks?
Regular season weeks. It's like cherry picking random stats from week 3 and 11.
I was wrong... your schtick is worse that Soulfly's LOL. I get the sense that at least he was genuine.
You know what Gordon fantasy football owners call out fantasy weeks?
Elimination weeks.
I guess your definition of schtick is being right more often than not.
Bottom line is Gordon was being drafted around WR21 per ADP and WR26-29 in my leagues. He currently sits at WR38 for the year. While not a "bust", that's definitely a failure to meet expectations.
Steelers4Life
Footballguy
The point is that real NFL players don't react differently just because it's fantasy football playoffs. So there's no legit reason to care what his career stats are in weeks 14, 15, or 16 and more than you'd care about weeks 3, 6, and 11.
Being right more often than not? I don't know your track record or history, and frankly I don't care. You want to be over-the-top about calling him droppable, go ahead. He was WR22 in PPR between weeks 6 and 14 despite catching only 2 TDs passes. How many leagues do you play in that start only 1 WR? Sucks that he laid an egg against the Steelers, but that's not too shabby for joining the Patriots a couple weeks before that.
Nothing this year really mattered before week 6. I agree that if you don't want to factor in not being used in Cleveland, being traded midseason, and then taking a few weeks to adjust to a new team, sure his 2018 was a massive disappointment. If you want to be more realistic about what he did this year, well, that paints a very different story and one that doesn't fit your narrative very well.
Gordon's value is higher now than it was at the beginning of the year. Why? Because for the 2nd straight year he stayed clean, and for an 8 week stretch after getting acclimated to a new offense midseason, he put up low end WR2 numbers with only 2 TDs. If he can do that without any offseason or any pre-existing chemistry with a QB or knowledge of a playbook, that's the FLOOR for a healthy and sober Josh Gordon.
dickey moe
Fingerpicker
Well maybe Gordon's talents are better suited early/mid season for a number of reasons.
Very strongly disagree with you about the last paragraph and I think 2019 drafts will support that. You move him back to Cleveland and I'm giving him a significant bump in production. He's had more time with Brady than any of his previous QBs where he produced at the same level or better. I don't factor in the staying clean because I assumed that for 2018 during the season based on a successful 2017. His ADP was WR21 in August. I don't think it's higher than that now.
Steelers4Life
Footballguy
Or maybe it's just random or matchup driven or dumb bad luck that his fantasy playoff weeks have been off sometimes. If you want to draw a correlation between week 14, 15, and 16 performance year over year, go ahead. Guys have bad games every week, every year.
I don't know where you got his ADP info, but ADP in a start-up draft is different than how he's valued in a trade or generally as a WR. Maybe I'm wrong and his "value" isn't higher. There was a lot of talk pumping him up and knocking him down after the trade, but his value - if anything - has recovered, because what he might end up lacking in true upside if he doesn't land as a clear #1 target somewhere, he'll make up for in having less risk after another clean year. Having confidence in a full season of Gordon would be really, really nice... there's value in a WR2 too.
Assuming another offseason of sobriety and a chance to prepare for next year (wherever he lands), the risk factor that's built into his ranking is going to be much lower now that he's another full year beyond his issues. I just wonder if the Patriots will stick with him after getting a very productive few months from him, and if they do, how his role will expand with an offseason to prepare it.
https://www.fantasypros.com/nfl/adp/josh-gordon.php
FBGs had him at 21 but that was only current as of August 28 so he may have slide a spot to 22,
http://games.espn.com/ffl/livedraftresults?position=WR
ESPN had him at 21.
I don't even want to know if I passed on Ju-Ju for Gordon in any of my leagues.
Steelers4Life
Footballguy
I never look at redraft rankings. That's interesting to me since that's basically exactly how he finished for the first eight weeks he held a starting role in New England. A couple more TDs would've moved him up a couple spots, but that's nitpicking. That ranking likely would've looked really low had he served as the primary target of a passing game and produced all year like he was expected to.
The thing is, that ranking didn't factor in getting traded and having to develop chemistry with Brady and learn a supposedly complex system while competing with multiple other trusted targets. What it DID factor in was the risk that he'd fail a test or flake out. His talent would've commanded a much higher ranking, but he was discounted because of risk. That risk should in theory be much lower next year. Time will tell about his situation.
My super-flex PPR dynasty initial draft took place around that time, and I got him in the 6th round as WR23. Once he started playing, I got what I paid for, can't complain about anything but the fact that I could've had a huge value on my hands under different circumstances. The two WRs taken before him were Jarvis Landry and Sammy Watkins.
It'd be one thing if he was drafted as a WR1 and you got far less. Fact is, people didn't factor in a midseason trade, but once he landed, those who drafted him got what they paid for.
I won't say noone predicted it, because there have been 1000 different opinions in here, but Gordon being on the field all season and performing at a WR3 level wasn't what very many saw coming.
Most saw elite, WR1 or high WR2 level production, or out of the league as the universe of outcomes.
Most saw elite, WR1 or high WR2 level production, or out of the league as the universe of outcomes.
As you said, his pre-season ranking factored in failed test or flake out. Neither of those happened so you didn't get the production you expected for the risk taken. Seems like you are saying the move to NE was a negative. We're in agreement on that but were in the minority.
Steelers4Life
Footballguy
I disagree with that. I paid for WR23 (in a dynasty setting), and I got a guy who was WR22 over the first 8 games after he got the starting role in New England. It might not have been the reason that was factored into his price, but there were still outside circumstances that impacted his performance.
Other guys will rise and others will fall, but at worst I expect his value heading into 2019 to hold steady barring a negative change in his situation. It also has the chance to rise, but I don't know how likely that would be or where he could go to have that happen. Given the age of Gronk and Edelman, who knows, that might happen if he stays in New England for a full offseason and his trust/role grows.
I didn't pay for a WR1. I paid for a low end WR2 with the hope that he might turn into a WR1... I might have gotten a WR1 if he had stayed in Cleveland and been force fed targets, but it's not like Landry did a whole lot there as the clear-cut best WR and their other options were inconsistent at best. There's no telling if Mayfield would've been able to get him the ball consistently like Brady did.
I don't view the move to New England as an automatic negative. It might have had a negative impact this year, we'll never know. But I think the structure and results and success he's had this year have been a huge positive for his future, and that matters a lot in a dynasty league.
I think we are talking past each other as you're a dynasty player and I'm a best ball season long and daily player.
Chaka
Footballguy
Your cherrypicked endpoints notwithstanding, you paid for a low end WR2 with the hope that he might turn into a WR1... and what you got was a low end WR3 (right now he's WR36 in my main league).
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Steelers4Life
Footballguy
Those aren't cherrypicked endpoints. It was in response to the idea that after one dud of a week that just happened to be in week 15, he was suddenly a disappointment and droppable. He was neither of those things, at least to me.
That's the date he actually got the starting position in New England as opposed to being traded from Cleveland and learning the Patriots' playbook. He went from getting around 15 snaps per game to playing around 90% of the snaps.
You're right, if you take the season in it's entirety, he didn't produce as expected. Just like if a guy gets hurt and misses 6 weeks, he fails to live up to expectations. Sucks, but it was due to situations out of his control, and when he was on the field he produced at exactly the level I paid for. I got a low end WR2 while he was on the field. And because he stayed on the field, produced well in a new offense, and didn't have any issues, it sets him up well for the future (in a dynasty league).
Steelers4Life
Footballguy
Call it whatever you want I guess. Gordon's season was disappointing in the same way it would've been had he been injured for the same timeframe, and I wouldn't hold that against him either. It sucked, but it can't be controlled or predicted that he'd be traded (or injured).
While his fantasy season as a whole was disappointing because of the missed weeks, when I look at his performance, it was anything but disappointing no matter how many people try to paint it that way.
The point to me is that he's set up to be very relevant again next year as long as he keeps his head on straight, and if he can be WR22 in an offense that he had just learned after getting traded, I consider that his FLOOR heading into 2019 with plenty of room for growth in New England or anywhere else he lands if he can prepare during the offseason. Maybe he gets back into drugs again for the first time in a couple years and it all falls apart, but until he does, I haven't seen any reason to expect it since 2016.
Sir Psycho
Footballguy
Ben VolinVerified account @BenVolin
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Ben Volin Retweeted Flash Gordon
Josh Gordon announces he is stepping away from the Patriots to focus on his mental health. Hope he gets the help he needs
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Ben Volin Retweeted Flash Gordon
Josh Gordon announces he is stepping away from the Patriots to focus on his mental health. Hope he gets the help he needs
Ah, sounds like his decision to "step away" may not have been entirely voluntary:
I know some people get mad at guys who keep blowing their chances like this, but IMO the fact that he keeps doing it suggests that he's suffering from a disease, not just bad judgment. I feel sad for him and hope he gets the help he needs.
Steelers4Life
Footballguy
Welp, that'll be a career killer if there's another suspension coming. It's hard to see another team trusting him with a meaningful role at any point no matter what he does.
As a Steelers fan, I'm glad that the Patriots lose a weapon for the playoffs though
As a Steelers fan, I'm glad that the Patriots lose a weapon for the playoffs though
Grahamburn
Footballguy
The gift that keeps on giving.
bicycle_seat_sniffer
Smells like chicken
Bigboy10182000
Footballguy
On the plus side, you can save a couple hours a week coming up with reasons to justify how great Josh is and Soulfly and move on to killing Mayfield and Chubb's career.Welp, that'll be a career killer if there's another suspension coming. It's hard to see another team trusting him with a meaningful role at any point no matter what he does.
As a Steelers fan, I'm glad that the Patriots lose a weapon for the playoffs though
voiceofunreason
Footballguy
Well if you choice to do drugs over making 10 million a year I have to respect your personal choice. Hopefully we can move on now.
ShamrockPride
Footballguy
Nah, like others have stated here before, if he can't stay straight on the Patriots lights out, show's over. He's done in the NFL.
I think he just saved my title. I was debating Gordon / Pettis / Ballage / Drake as my last flex spot. This solves that. Better now than a goose egg on Sunday.
Wish the best for Gordon. In Dynasty I can hold him through the summer and decide on his future at next year's rookie draft. Might make my cuts easier.
PennStater77
Footballguy
I don’t feel sad for him at all. He has had countless chances. After his second suspension he should have checked his mental health. Don’t mean to sound like an ###, but sounds like he is pulling a bit of a sympathy card.
seahawk 17
Footballguy
I survived with his 2 points last week, I can survive without him in the championship game. At this point I would rather have herpes, then to ride this rollercoaster.
Actually two.
WSL2 I'm down to T. Smith and Amendola at WR3 so borderline.
PDSL I'm down to Crowder, Matthews, and T. Smith, so definitely eating a donuts in that one with Gordon gone.
In a third final I'll be able to cut him and pick up someone off the wire which likely will be an improvement over what he would have done.
Steelers4Life
Footballguy
I never justified how great he was, just pointed out that his performance this year was actually very solid after the trade. That's about it. Things were looking up for him, but I mentioned it more than once that it all hinged on him staying out of trouble. All the talk about "selling high" was utter nonsense because no one was just going to forget his past just because he was traded to the Patriots. People who owned him in a dynasty league were stuck holding him unless they played with idiots.
If you had said up front that all you play is DFS or best ball leagues and you only look at him from that standpoint, we wouldn't have had to talk about him at all lol.
I've played for 25 years now, won plenty, lost plenty. Making the wrong call on a guy happens... oh well, it's time to move on from the guy.
