alex brasky
The summer of Keon Coleman continues
Coleman has dominated training camp and that continued with a couple of touchdown receptions during Friday’s joint practice with the Bears #Bills #BillsMafia
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WR Keon Coleman, BUF (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter Faust
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barackdhouse
Footballguy
He is my 5th highest WR at 32.4%
Egbuka #1 at 44.6%
Flowers #2 at 40.5%
Metcalf #3 at 37.8%
Jamo #4 at 32.4%
I consider 30% to be a rough limit for how high I want to go on any one player. But there are always one or two each year at each position that I go a little overboard with. Coleman is right where I like him.
barackdhouse
Footballguy
Yeah I'm trying to keep my excitement in check. I know they want to spread the ball around but I have visions of him taking a big year 2 leap and commanding FF WR1 targets.
And the Bills defense looks pretty awful. Since preseason and Hard Knocks is scientific proof.
33% rostership ATM right in the groove my 4th highest rostered WR in BB/redraft
And the Bills defense looks pretty awful. Since preseason and Hard Knocks is scientific proof.
33% rostership ATM right in the groove my 4th highest rostered WR in BB/redraft
Instinctive
Footballguy
I'll post more in my thread but I have him fairly high up.
20% target share = 112 targets
65/1144/12
Thats taking his 9.8 YPT up to 10.2, and a 13.8% TD ratio down to 11%. Given his red zone usage and projecting improvement, that feels doable. I'm worried I'm a little low on him at 20%, with Palmer at 18% and Shakir at 20% too. He might take a % or two from one or both of those guys and suddenly be a monster.
20% target share = 112 targets
65/1144/12
Thats taking his 9.8 YPT up to 10.2, and a 13.8% TD ratio down to 11%. Given his red zone usage and projecting improvement, that feels doable. I'm worried I'm a little low on him at 20%, with Palmer at 18% and Shakir at 20% too. He might take a % or two from one or both of those guys and suddenly be a monster.
finfansteve
Footballguy
That would be a pretty impressive stat line. Would you rather have Coleman or Luther Burden over the next several years?
Ministry of Pain
Footballguy
I don't know what to make of his 19 yds per catch, is that something you can actually project for him?
Very quiet Rookie season but that yds per catch and 4 TD...
If he can get to 60 catches, 900-1,000 yds and 6-8TDs for about a 10th round WR pick and this would also mean he has become the WR1 on the Bills
I'm optimistic but I'm not going to say it's a sure thing.
Shakir is a different WR playing a different position, he's going to see targets when he's healthy, they have 2 TEs, lead RB that can catch balls
There are a lot of mouths to feed plus Allen takes off a lot
Could be.a Boom/Bust WR3 with 20 pts one week and very few the weeks after
Remind anyone of past a past Buffalo WR
Keon is a big boy, 6-4/215-220, he has the size to dominate smaller DBs and give Allen a nice target downfield where he can out jump and come down with the ball.
He's worth the ADP gamble right now, no doubt but your banking on Allen and the Bills IMO over just what Keon brings to the offense.
We've done that with others like Kincaid and its mostly backfired recently
Very quiet Rookie season but that yds per catch and 4 TD...
If he can get to 60 catches, 900-1,000 yds and 6-8TDs for about a 10th round WR pick and this would also mean he has become the WR1 on the Bills
I'm optimistic but I'm not going to say it's a sure thing.
Shakir is a different WR playing a different position, he's going to see targets when he's healthy, they have 2 TEs, lead RB that can catch balls
There are a lot of mouths to feed plus Allen takes off a lot
Could be.a Boom/Bust WR3 with 20 pts one week and very few the weeks after
Remind anyone of past a past Buffalo WR
Keon is a big boy, 6-4/215-220, he has the size to dominate smaller DBs and give Allen a nice target downfield where he can out jump and come down with the ball.
He's worth the ADP gamble right now, no doubt but your banking on Allen and the Bills IMO over just what Keon brings to the offense.
We've done that with others like Kincaid and its mostly backfired recently
jtd13
Footballguy
I'm relatively bullish on both guys, but probably Burden for me. I liked him a little better as a prospect and he's probably got more value insulation for this year.
But if I had a team that needed a flex starter this year and wanted a similar high ceiling low floor wr, I have them close enough that I could see myself taking Coleman.
But if I had a team that needed a flex starter this year and wanted a similar high ceiling low floor wr, I have them close enough that I could see myself taking Coleman.
Insein
Footballguy
I feel like he started to figure stuff out a bit right before the injury last year. Then that derailed any potential breakout. This offense is begging for an alpha to take over and Shakir just looks like a WR3 playing a WR2 in a WR1 spot. If Keon is healthy now and much more prepared, I think he could be a steal as a 10-11th round pick.
Instinctive
Footballguy
It depends a little on format. PPR makes it tougher because I think Burden in a Ben Johnson offense out of the slot could be a 100 catch guy. But I think Coleman could be WR1 in Buffalo and we saw how good that was for Diggs for a while. I like Coleman.
Ilov80s
Footballguy
Coleman is a great athlete too. Not a blazer but definite build up speed and great in the air with his basketball background. I think the most likely scenario is he's the new Gabe Davis. Good in the end zone, makes some huge plays down field but then also disappears for games, isn't a reliable short and intermediate target, a bit maddening for fantasy. There is a 25% chance though that he improves the route running enough where he can get a couple simple chain moving catches and they use him on a short pass or 2 and you get a DK Metcalf like result from him.
steelcityman
Footballguy
He'll be as good as Allen wants/allows him to be.
@GregoryLKellogg
Footballguy
JJ Zachariason has a great newsletter that is free. His latest has 15 bold predictions (he runs about 40-60% correct on these).
I don’t think he will mind me sharing this with you folks.
8. KEON COLEMAN WILL OUTSCORE JERRY JEUDY
Why This Is Bold: Jeudy falls off draft boards as the WR32, while Coleman is the WR48.
Why This Will Happen: This is one of those bold predictions that could look obnoxiously stupid when looking back at this list next offseason. Because Keon Coleman's 2025 could go in a lot of different directions after a rookie season that left us with more questions than answers.
But, look, Coleman's yards per route run of 1.71 was actually pretty strong for a rookie wideout. And that was a hard-earned number -- he only ran 36 routes from the slot last year, per PFF, and his average depth of target was a ridiculous 15.5. When you query some historical comps for Coleman, you'll get some busts, sure, but you also get a lot of Mike Evans, George Pickens, and Courtland Sutton types. You get bigger-bodied perimeter receivers who grew into larger roles as they developed in the NFL.
And Coleman, to me, has a chance to do that. He was a little raw entering the league, which makes sense because he was drafted at just 21 years of age. But he has the size and ability to make a splash if things come together.
That size, too, is where this bold prediction can really work. He led Buffalo in red-zone targets last year, and Buffalo's a huge regression candidate with how they score their touchdowns -- 48% of their scores came via the pass last year, when that number was closer to 65% for them over the five seasons prior.
Meanwhile, Jerry Jeudy's never been much of a touchdown scorer. I mean, the dude had 1,229 yards last year and found the end zone just 4 times. Some may scream "regression" from that, but let's not pretend Cleveland is projected for a lot of scores this year.
Joe Flacco starting for Cleveland is better than the alternatives from a fantasy perspective, but we can't assume he's going to be under center for all 17 games this year. And while Jeudy had some really good moments last season, there's no doubt he ran pretty pure.
For instance, during the five-week stretch where Cedric Tillman was a key player in the offense, Jeudy averaged a little over 14 PPR points per game and had a modest 19.6% target share. That's fine, but nothing special.
Jameis Winston played a huge role, too: When Jeudy played without Winston, he averaged just 9.3 PPR points per contest.
And Cleveland finished the season with the second-highest pass rate in football. Not player ran more routes in the NFL last year than Jerry Jeudy.
Do we think that's going to continue?
With so much up in the air long-term for Cleveland, it's not hard to see a scenario where things go south for Jeudy. And if Coleman's able to develop and hit pay dirt more often this year in a high-powered offense, this prediction could come true.
@GregoryLKellogg
Footballguy
Folks - get yourselves to the #FFExpo next July. You can meet and press flesh with the real fantasy experts like JJ and many of the FBG Staff including, if you’re lucky, the man who built FBG from nothing to what it is today - Mr. Joe Bryant!
massraider
Footballguy
Love the ADP.
22 years old, and the only guy on the roster who might be a true #1.
22 years old, and the only guy on the roster who might be a true #1.
RenegadeRoy
Footballguy
Lol spot on.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Bad timing for a groin injury (though there never is good timing for one)
Shakir practiced in full, and Palmer has remained healthy (knock on wood) - might be a lot of Cook in this one if Coleman can't go.
Shakir practiced in full, and Palmer has remained healthy (knock on wood) - might be a lot of Cook in this one if Coleman can't go.
Ministry of Pain
Footballguy
Keon Coleman (groin) practices Thursday
Coleman had been listed as a limited participant at practice on Wednesday. He appears to be on track to be good to go for Sunday night against the Ravens.
www.fantasypros.com
Practiced it would seem, perhaps not in Full
Truebluey
Footballguy
Nearly all his production came when they were in full comeback mode, and his TD was a fluke, but he showed how they should utilize him going forward.
Smack Tripper
Footballguy
Imagine if Joe Brady didn’t hamstring this offense
You see what’s possible
You see what’s possible
TampaMike19
Footballguy
On the bench and started Ridley sigh
What do we think? Start going forward?
What do we think? Start going forward?
Ilov80s
Footballguy
Yeah hes ready for prime time
msudaisy26
Footballguy
He was kind of invisible until the Bills had to throw in the 4th quarter his touchdown was super lucky. He is a wr3 for me going forward, but I wouldn't be buying high.
Instinctive
Footballguy
Game one update:
23.9% target share
Pace for 187 (surely they won't throw it almost 50/game) but the share is what's exciting
10.2 YPT exactly after one game
12.5% of his receptions for TDs so far.
This guy was almost always available after pick 100.
barackdhouse
Footballguy
he was on 0 of my benches and one of my highest rostered players so definitely asking the wrong person here. It wasn't a question in my mind *before* yesterday for me, but am confused. you're still not sure? you don't have to answer that but my answer is yeah man he is an auto start.
*guarantee he has 4/33 next week
Smack Tripper
Footballguy
Boom/Bust WR3... I think he's better than Gabe Davis but remember Gabe Davis would have these games a few times a year too.
That's where I'm at too. Bills are a run 1st team, and not many teams put up points like Baltimore. Looking ahead at their schedule, its tough to see another game that could have script like this one.
Josh Allen had 46 attempts (most of any QB this week) that's 6 more than he had in any game last season.
Terpman22
Footballguy
Currently tied for 7th most targeted player in all of Football.
People will start coming around...
Smack Tripper
Footballguy
He had 1, maybe 2, targets in the first half.
He was like 2 for 42 until halfway into the 4th.
All the credit, he got the points, did the job, he could have had two TDS
My issue is not with him but the coaching. They look to me like they try to put Josh into Houdini spots instead of playing balanced throughout.
I want to believe, I hope i'm wrong. Josh should be passing more to save wear and tear on him in the run game. That would be logical.
But I've lost thousands in my life waiting for logical coaching to kick in.
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