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WR Keon Coleman, BUF (1 Viewer)

TripItUp said:
Straight value homies...top 5 owned player for me in the best ball circuit.
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He is my 5th highest WR at 32.4%

Egbuka #1 at 44.6%
Flowers #2 at 40.5%
Metcalf #3 at 37.8%
Jamo #4 at 32.4%

I consider 30% to be a rough limit for how high I want to go on any one player. But there are always one or two each year at each position that I go a little overboard with. Coleman is right where I like him.
 
Yeah I'm trying to keep my excitement in check. I know they want to spread the ball around but I have visions of him taking a big year 2 leap and commanding FF WR1 targets.

And the Bills defense looks pretty awful. Since preseason and Hard Knocks is scientific proof.

33% rostership ATM right in the groove my 4th highest rostered WR in BB/redraft
 
I'll post more in my thread but I have him fairly high up.

20% target share = 112 targets
65/1144/12

Thats taking his 9.8 YPT up to 10.2, and a 13.8% TD ratio down to 11%. Given his red zone usage and projecting improvement, that feels doable. I'm worried I'm a little low on him at 20%, with Palmer at 18% and Shakir at 20% too. He might take a % or two from one or both of those guys and suddenly be a monster.
 
Instinctive said:
I'll post more in my thread but I have him fairly high up.

20% target share = 112 targets
65/1144/12

Thats taking his 9.8 YPT up to 10.2, and a 13.8% TD ratio down to 11%. Given his red zone usage and projecting improvement, that feels doable. I'm worried I'm a little low on him at 20%, with Palmer at 18% and Shakir at 20% too. He might take a % or two from one or both of those guys and suddenly be a monster.
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That would be a pretty impressive stat line. Would you rather have Coleman or Luther Burden over the next several years?
 
I don't know what to make of his 19 yds per catch, is that something you can actually project for him?
Very quiet Rookie season but that yds per catch and 4 TD...

If he can get to 60 catches, 900-1,000 yds and 6-8TDs for about a 10th round WR pick and this would also mean he has become the WR1 on the Bills
I'm optimistic but I'm not going to say it's a sure thing.

Shakir is a different WR playing a different position, he's going to see targets when he's healthy, they have 2 TEs, lead RB that can catch balls
There are a lot of mouths to feed plus Allen takes off a lot

Could be.a Boom/Bust WR3 with 20 pts one week and very few the weeks after
Remind anyone of past a past Buffalo WR

Keon is a big boy, 6-4/215-220, he has the size to dominate smaller DBs and give Allen a nice target downfield where he can out jump and come down with the ball.
He's worth the ADP gamble right now, no doubt but your banking on Allen and the Bills IMO over just what Keon brings to the offense.
We've done that with others like Kincaid and its mostly backfired recently
 
I'm relatively bullish on both guys, but probably Burden for me. I liked him a little better as a prospect and he's probably got more value insulation for this year.
But if I had a team that needed a flex starter this year and wanted a similar high ceiling low floor wr, I have them close enough that I could see myself taking Coleman.
 
I feel like he started to figure stuff out a bit right before the injury last year. Then that derailed any potential breakout. This offense is begging for an alpha to take over and Shakir just looks like a WR3 playing a WR2 in a WR1 spot. If Keon is healthy now and much more prepared, I think he could be a steal as a 10-11th round pick.
 
finfansteve said:
Instinctive said:
I'll post more in my thread but I have him fairly high up.

20% target share = 112 targets
65/1144/12

Thats taking his 9.8 YPT up to 10.2, and a 13.8% TD ratio down to 11%. Given his red zone usage and projecting improvement, that feels doable. I'm worried I'm a little low on him at 20%, with Palmer at 18% and Shakir at 20% too. He might take a % or two from one or both of those guys and suddenly be a monster.
Click to expand...
That would be a pretty impressive stat line. Would you rather have Coleman or Luther Burden over the next several years?
Click to expand...
It depends a little on format. PPR makes it tougher because I think Burden in a Ben Johnson offense out of the slot could be a 100 catch guy. But I think Coleman could be WR1 in Buffalo and we saw how good that was for Diggs for a while. I like Coleman.
 
Ministry of Pain said:
I don't know what to make of his 19 yds per catch, is that something you can actually project for him?
Very quiet Rookie season but that yds per catch and 4 TD...

If he can get to 60 catches, 900-1,000 yds and 6-8TDs for about a 10th round WR pick and this would also mean he has become the WR1 on the Bills
I'm optimistic but I'm not going to say it's a sure thing.

Shakir is a different WR playing a different position, he's going to see targets when he's healthy, they have 2 TEs, lead RB that can catch balls
There are a lot of mouths to feed plus Allen takes off a lot

Could be.a Boom/Bust WR3 with 20 pts one week and very few the weeks after
Remind anyone of past a past Buffalo WR

Keon is a big boy, 6-4/215-220, he has the size to dominate smaller DBs and give Allen a nice target downfield where he can out jump and come down with the ball.
He's worth the ADP gamble right now, no doubt but your banking on Allen and the Bills IMO over just what Keon brings to the offense.
We've done that with others like Kincaid and its mostly backfired recently
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Coleman is a great athlete too. Not a blazer but definite build up speed and great in the air with his basketball background. I think the most likely scenario is he's the new Gabe Davis. Good in the end zone, makes some huge plays down field but then also disappears for games, isn't a reliable short and intermediate target, a bit maddening for fantasy. There is a 25% chance though that he improves the route running enough where he can get a couple simple chain moving catches and they use him on a short pass or 2 and you get a DK Metcalf like result from him.
 
Faust said:
Keon Coleman is Blossoming into a Superstar

Top WR prospect Keon Coleman shines in Florida State’s win over Clemson
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JJ Zachariason has a great newsletter that is free. His latest has 15 bold predictions (he runs about 40-60% correct on these).

I don’t think he will mind me sharing this with you folks.

8. KEON COLEMAN WILL OUTSCORE JERRY JEUDY

Why This Is Bold: Jeudy falls off draft boards as the WR32, while Coleman is the WR48.

Why This Will Happen: This is one of those bold predictions that could look obnoxiously stupid when looking back at this list next offseason. Because Keon Coleman's 2025 could go in a lot of different directions after a rookie season that left us with more questions than answers.

But, look, Coleman's yards per route run of 1.71 was actually pretty strong for a rookie wideout. And that was a hard-earned number -- he only ran 36 routes from the slot last year, per PFF, and his average depth of target was a ridiculous 15.5. When you query some historical comps for Coleman, you'll get some busts, sure, but you also get a lot of Mike Evans, George Pickens, and Courtland Sutton types. You get bigger-bodied perimeter receivers who grew into larger roles as they developed in the NFL.

And Coleman, to me, has a chance to do that. He was a little raw entering the league, which makes sense because he was drafted at just 21 years of age. But he has the size and ability to make a splash if things come together.

That size, too, is where this bold prediction can really work. He led Buffalo in red-zone targets last year, and Buffalo's a huge regression candidate with how they score their touchdowns -- 48% of their scores came via the pass last year, when that number was closer to 65% for them over the five seasons prior.

Meanwhile, Jerry Jeudy's never been much of a touchdown scorer. I mean, the dude had 1,229 yards last year and found the end zone just 4 times. Some may scream "regression" from that, but let's not pretend Cleveland is projected for a lot of scores this year.

Joe Flacco starting for Cleveland is better than the alternatives from a fantasy perspective, but we can't assume he's going to be under center for all 17 games this year. And while Jeudy had some really good moments last season, there's no doubt he ran pretty pure.

For instance, during the five-week stretch where Cedric Tillman was a key player in the offense, Jeudy averaged a little over 14 PPR points per game and had a modest 19.6% target share. That's fine, but nothing special.

Jameis Winston played a huge role, too: When Jeudy played without Winston, he averaged just 9.3 PPR points per contest.

And Cleveland finished the season with the second-highest pass rate in football. Not player ran more routes in the NFL last year than Jerry Jeudy.

Do we think that's going to continue?

With so much up in the air long-term for Cleveland, it's not hard to see a scenario where things go south for Jeudy. And if Coleman's able to develop and hit pay dirt more often this year in a high-powered offense, this prediction could come true.
 
@GregoryLKellogg said:
Faust said:
Keon Coleman is Blossoming into a Superstar

Top WR prospect Keon Coleman shines in Florida State’s win over Clemson
Click to expand...
JJ Zachariason has a great newsletter that is free. His latest has 15 bold predictions (he runs about 40-60% correct on these).

I don’t think he will mind me sharing this with you folks.

8. KEON COLEMAN WILL OUTSCORE JERRY JEUDY

Why This Is Bold: Jeudy falls off draft boards as the WR32, while Coleman is the WR48.

Why This Will Happen: This is one of those bold predictions that could look obnoxiously stupid when looking back at this list next offseason. Because Keon Coleman's 2025 could go in a lot of different directions after a rookie season that left us with more questions than answers.

But, look, Coleman's yards per route run of 1.71 was actually pretty strong for a rookie wideout. And that was a hard-earned number -- he only ran 36 routes from the slot last year, per PFF, and his average depth of target was a ridiculous 15.5. When you query some historical comps for Coleman, you'll get some busts, sure, but you also get a lot of Mike Evans, George Pickens, and Courtland Sutton types. You get bigger-bodied perimeter receivers who grew into larger roles as they developed in the NFL.

And Coleman, to me, has a chance to do that. He was a little raw entering the league, which makes sense because he was drafted at just 21 years of age. But he has the size and ability to make a splash if things come together.

That size, too, is where this bold prediction can really work. He led Buffalo in red-zone targets last year, and Buffalo's a huge regression candidate with how they score their touchdowns -- 48% of their scores came via the pass last year, when that number was closer to 65% for them over the five seasons prior.

Meanwhile, Jerry Jeudy's never been much of a touchdown scorer. I mean, the dude had 1,229 yards last year and found the end zone just 4 times. Some may scream "regression" from that, but let's not pretend Cleveland is projected for a lot of scores this year.

Joe Flacco starting for Cleveland is better than the alternatives from a fantasy perspective, but we can't assume he's going to be under center for all 17 games this year. And while Jeudy had some really good moments last season, there's no doubt he ran pretty pure.

For instance, during the five-week stretch where Cedric Tillman was a key player in the offense, Jeudy averaged a little over 14 PPR points per game and had a modest 19.6% target share. That's fine, but nothing special.

Jameis Winston played a huge role, too: When Jeudy played without Winston, he averaged just 9.3 PPR points per contest.

And Cleveland finished the season with the second-highest pass rate in football. Not player ran more routes in the NFL last year than Jerry Jeudy.

Do we think that's going to continue?

With so much up in the air long-term for Cleveland, it's not hard to see a scenario where things go south for Jeudy. And if Coleman's able to develop and hit pay dirt more often this year in a high-powered offense, this prediction could come true.
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Folks - get yourselves to the #FFExpo next July. You can meet and press flesh with the real fantasy experts like JJ and many of the FBG Staff including, if you’re lucky, the man who built FBG from nothing to what it is today - Mr. Joe Bryant!
 
Bad timing for a groin injury (though there never is good timing for one)

Bills WR Keon Coleman (groin) was limited on Wednesday.
The Athletic’s Joe Buscaglia commented on the matter, saying, Coleman “pops up on the injury report unexpectedly.” It gives the impression that Coleman may have strained his groin in practice today. That’s a bad sign for his Week 1 availability. Coleman and the Bills are hoping he can make a second-year leap after a disappointing, injury-impacted rookie season. He should not be in starting lineups at this time.
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Shakir practiced in full, and Palmer has remained healthy (knock on wood) - might be a lot of Cook in this one if Coleman can't go.
 
Weird team. Guys disappear for no reason. They pull talented players off the field. Still he seemed to play whole game and was targeted often. He seems like a wr2 to me.
 
Instinctive said:
I'll post more in my thread but I have him fairly high up.

20% target share = 112 targets
65/1144/12

Thats taking his 9.8 YPT up to 10.2, and a 13.8% TD ratio down to 11%. Given his red zone usage and projecting improvement, that feels doable. I'm worried I'm a little low on him at 20%, with Palmer at 18% and Shakir at 20% too. He might take a % or two from one or both of those guys and suddenly be a monster.
Click to expand...
Game one update:

23.9% target share
Pace for 187 (surely they won't throw it almost 50/game) but the share is what's exciting
10.2 YPT exactly after one game
12.5% of his receptions for TDs so far.

This guy was almost always available after pick 100.
 
TampaMike19 said:
On the bench and started Ridley sigh

What do we think? Start going forward?
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he was on 0 of my benches and one of my highest rostered players so definitely asking the wrong person here. It wasn't a question in my mind *before* yesterday for me, but am confused. you're still not sure? you don't have to answer that but my answer is yeah man he is an auto start.

*guarantee he has 4/33 next week
 
msudaisy26 said:
He was kind of invisible until the Bills had to throw in the 4th quarter his touchdown was super lucky. He is a wr3 for me going forward, but I wouldn't be buying high.
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That's where I'm at too. Bills are a run 1st team, and not many teams put up points like Baltimore. Looking ahead at their schedule, its tough to see another game that could have script like this one.

Josh Allen had 46 attempts (most of any QB this week) that's 6 more than he had in any game last season.
 
Terpman22 said:
Smack Tripper said:
TampaMike19 said:
On the bench and started Ridley sigh

What do we think? Start going forward?
Click to expand...
Boom/Bust WR3... I think he's better than Gabe Davis but remember Gabe Davis would have these games a few times a year too.
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Currently tied for 7th most targeted player in all of Football.

People will start coming around...
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He had 1, maybe 2, targets in the first half.

He was like 2 for 42 until halfway into the 4th.

All the credit, he got the points, did the job, he could have had two TDS

My issue is not with him but the coaching. They look to me like they try to put Josh into Houdini spots instead of playing balanced throughout.

I want to believe, I hope i'm wrong. Josh should be passing more to save wear and tear on him in the run game. That would be logical.

But I've lost thousands in my life waiting for logical coaching to kick in.
 
So it wasn't a breakout? Just a boom/bust mirage?

He sure is being treated like it and the rankings reflect it too.
 
Proteus said:
So it wasn't a breakout? Just a boom/bust mirage?

He sure is being treated like it and the rankings reflect it too.
Click to expand...

Watching that game it felt like Coleman was the hot receiver and got lucky with a great game script and a lucky touchdown.

Could it be the start of a breakout? Sure, but if I have option that I drafted higher I am starting them this week and making Coleman show me it wasn't just a perfect storm.
 
msudaisy26 said:
Proteus said:
So it wasn't a breakout? Just a boom/bust mirage?

He sure is being treated like it and the rankings reflect it too.
Click to expand...

Watching that game it felt like Coleman was the hot receiver and got lucky with a great game script and a lucky touchdown.

Could it be the start of a breakout? Sure, but if I have option that I drafted higher I am starting them this week and making Coleman show me it wasn't just a perfect storm.
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I agree with this. I mean Allen had 250 yards passing in the 4th quarter, something they do not want to replicate if not necessary. The best hope for Coleman to breakout is the defensive play continues to lead to shoot outs. I think the Bills know they are the king in their division and will try to slow play it until playoffs.
 
King of the Jungle said:
msudaisy26 said:
Proteus said:
So it wasn't a breakout? Just a boom/bust mirage?

He sure is being treated like it and the rankings reflect it too.
Click to expand...

Watching that game it felt like Coleman was the hot receiver and got lucky with a great game script and a lucky touchdown.

Could it be the start of a breakout? Sure, but if I have option that I drafted higher I am starting them this week and making Coleman show me it wasn't just a perfect storm.
Click to expand...
I agree with this. I mean Allen had 250 yards passing in the 4th quarter, something they do not want to replicate if not necessary. The best hope for Coleman to breakout is the defensive play continues to lead to shoot outs. I think the Bills know they are the king in their division and will try to slow play it until playoffs.
Click to expand...
Same. I think we need to see more before we know this isn't just Gabe Davis all over again, especially given how point chasing they were.
 
msudaisy26 said:
Proteus said:
So it wasn't a breakout? Just a boom/bust mirage?

He sure is being treated like it and the rankings reflect it too.
Click to expand...

Watching that game it felt like Coleman was the hot receiver and got lucky with a great game script and a lucky touchdown.

Could it be the start of a breakout? Sure, but if I have option that I drafted higher I am starting them this week and making Coleman show me it wasn't just a perfect storm.
Click to expand...
He did get ankle tackled out of a second touch down though, so maybe the universe found balance.
 
travdogg said:
King of the Jungle said:
msudaisy26 said:
Proteus said:
So it wasn't a breakout? Just a boom/bust mirage?

He sure is being treated like it and the rankings reflect it too.
Click to expand...

Watching that game it felt like Coleman was the hot receiver and got lucky with a great game script and a lucky touchdown.

Could it be the start of a breakout? Sure, but if I have option that I drafted higher I am starting them this week and making Coleman show me it wasn't just a perfect storm.
Click to expand...
I agree with this. I mean Allen had 250 yards passing in the 4th quarter, something they do not want to replicate if not necessary. The best hope for Coleman to breakout is the defensive play continues to lead to shoot outs. I think the Bills know they are the king in their division and will try to slow play it until playoffs.
Click to expand...
Same. I think we need to see more before we know this isn't just Gabe Davis all over again, especially given how point chasing they were.
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I agree with this. The answer to who is WR1 in Buffalo is still probably no one, but as far as ceiling goes, I'm convinced Coleman is the guy to have. His highlights from last years limited starts looked good to me. Might not happen this year, but there is something there. Young too.
 
Instinctive said:
Target share down quite a bit.
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Gabe Davis-ville

He did have a bad drop, didn't earn more with that.

This was a close enough game with enough offense that he should have eaten, so he is what he is, a boom bust WR3

Last night was bust.

Benchining where I can going forward as well and you can expect another smash week.
 
Smack Tripper said:
Instinctive said:
Target share down quite a bit.
Click to expand...
Gabe Davis-ville

He did have a bad drop, didn't earn more with that.

This was a close enough game with enough offense that he should have eaten, so he is what he is, a boom bust WR3

Last night was bust.

Benchining where I can going forward as well and you can expect another smash week.
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Yeah Gabe Davis 2.0. He will have blow up games like week 1 but good luck identifying when.
 
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