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WR Malik Nabers, NYG (2 Viewers)
- Thread starter Faust
- Start date
barackdhouse
Footballguy
You should just remove him from the list if you're capable
N Zone
Footballguy
It didn't look like I had that option to remove just one player. ESPN already removed Nabers from the undroppable list yesterday and I was able to drop him.
kutta
Footballguy
I posted this in the completed dynasty trade thread.
I give: Saquon, Henry, Adams, Ridley, 2026 late second.
I get: Nabers, 2026 early first, Kamara, Jaylen Warren, Otton 2026 4th
I still have Achane, ARSB, and JSN as my core. Adding Nabers and an early first is pretty exciting.
I’m 4-0 right now, and still think I can cobble together enough wins to make a run this year too.
ETA: that first will probably be mid now
rockaction
Footballguy
I was told he didn't have turf toe and I was irresponsible for quoting certain sources. I guess Schefter is reporting it that way.
I had a strong inkling to move this guy in dynasty and damn am I regretting it.
Gjallarhorn
Footballguy
Question for dynasty owners, what are you accepting for him right now?
ffmail4me
Footballguy
Why would anyone move him? Not trying to sound snarky, but clearly Dart is a legit QB, it would take a massive overpay for me to move him in a dynasty league.
rockaction
Footballguy
Not me. I watched Breece Hall for long enough. These reconstructions are not automatic. I just went through clips. It's . . . it was slightly heartbreaking.
zamboni
Footballguy
I think Nabers is hungry enough to get back where he was, and given his age and with modern medicine/technology, I think he'll get there.
That said, based on an initial view of the post-Nabers world, I do have a bit of concern about how well he'll pick up where he left off even if he's 100% healthy. He will not have had any time this year to build chemistry with Dart, and based on early signs, this may be a run-first offense without a ton of passing volume. A lot of "ifs" before we see the ceiling again.
He was just traded in one of my dynasty leagues (12 teams, PPR, 1 QB) for a 2026 1st (likely top 3) and Addison.
Zow
Footballguy
pinkstapler
Footballguy
More or less this. Not entertaining selling Nabers in my dynasty leagues rn. He's the third WR I have ranked outside the elite tier (Chase/JJ/Puka-elite; ARSB/JSN ahead in 2nd tier) but really I think he has the highest upside to reach that elite tier of the remaining WRs due to talent and situation. Even if I was in some "one piece away from the championship" situation, the last roster piece I'm moving is a 22 year old WR who broke out his rookie year and finished as the WR7 despite playing in one of the worst offenses in the league.
rockaction
Footballguy
Give me 6.5-7/8ths equal value and I'm working it out. I keep watching the miracle of medicine happen before our very eyes and it's saving careers but these guys are losing the edge that bridges those tiers we make for ourselves. I don't have much of a way of quantifying it but I know Breece Hall before surgery and when after surgery was still okay and then what 2024 looked like. The fall is precipitous and fast and by then you're holding a bag full of coal.
And with ACLs and receivers, you lose almost a full year and then it's 3.75/4ths the way it was two years later.
These numbers are all completely made up, but I'd love to ask some of the trainers in their honest moments what exactly the scoop is.
Gjallarhorn
Footballguy
Not snarky at, and a fair point, but his value may never be as high as it is right now. I am trying to think of one person that had this level of knee damage and came back as a top tier WR.
kutta
Footballguy
Most recently, Cooper Kupp.
Jerry Rice, Jordy Nelson, and Keenan Allen all had great careers after ACL injuries.
I’d ask it a little differently. Do you know any stud, young WRs who tore their ACL and never regained their form?
pinkstapler
Footballguy
Is it more than an ACL tear?
It's obvious a small sample size so there aren't a ton of exact correlations either way. But Maclin, Godwin, and Jameson Williams all suffered ACL tears and came back playing at arguably the same level they were pre-injury. I'd say Williams has improved since his. And Maclin set career highs following his.
Gronk may as well also count seeing how he was used. And while he continued having injury issues late in his career, it was mostly revolving around herniated discs and a bad back (and a few concussions), not continued knee injuries. And he was running, cutting, smashing just as well as he was prior to the tear.
The high value proposition is a good argument IMO, but the injury plays a minor role in it IMO. When players are ranked as high as Nabers is there's really only one way to go. He would likely need to repeat, if not better, his rookie season numbers for at least two more years before he could even legitimately make the case at being valued higher than Chase/JJ. And even then, it would likely be mostly an argument based on his age vs the other two. So really, there probably is a very, very small chance his value ever increases from here and if it did we are a few years away from that point. The question is will his value significantly drop. I don't think so. At least not in the short term. He did what he did his rookie year, injuries are unpredictable, and regardless owners are going to give him next year as a bounce back regardless of performance. This will keep his value insulated until 2027, and again, it will be a wait and see thing on his performance; so value won't likely decrease until at least 4-5 weeks into the season if he put up 4-5 weeks of terrible numbers or just looks physically diminished on tape compared to what he was in college/2024.
His value is what people will pay for him, sure. But the hand shake of that rationalization is that his value is also what people will sell him for. I don't think anyone's selling him for significantly less than a top 5 WR in dynasty and/or a 1st round start up pick till 2027 at the earliest. Likely a few weeks in like I said. Least I know I'm not as an owner, and I haven't heard/seen anything indicating I'm in the minority on that.
Gjallarhorn
Footballguy
Michael Clayton comes to mind.
Gjallarhorn
Footballguy
As @rockaction pointed out, the contrast between Hall's pre/post-ACL surgery is stark. I do not think anyone is going to come back stronger, you just hope they only lose one step, in-lieu-of multiple steps.
If you are contending right now and can move Nabers for a piece that will put you over the top then it seems like that would be a great reason to move him in dynasty.
zamboni
Footballguy
Breece came back very strong (arguably right to where he was) and to the point of when he was once again widely viewed as among the elite dynasty RBs a few years ago. The crumbling team situation has cratered his value, not his ability.
I bought him + Javonte shortly after the injury for MHJ + '26 1st (clear frontrunner for league champ's pick)
rockaction
Footballguy
EPA is not an individual stat and really shouldn't be used that way, but Breece Hall had 80 rushing attempts in 2022 and—get this—led the league in total EPA. To understand this, let's define it. EPA is the amount of expected points we expect the offense to score when a play is started given a whole host of contextual factors like down, distance, time remaining, and field position. So say you start a play and your team's EPA is .45. You run that play and at the end of it you now have new set of contextual clues to look at. You ascertain them and now your EPA is .90 (say you had a seven-yard run on 2nd and 4 for a first down). Your EPA on that play would be .45, which is .90-.45.
The EPA gained would be .45.
Anyway, Breece had a +13.89 EPA in eighty rushes. The next highest EPA was Miles Sanders, who had an EPA of +13.65 on over 250 attempts. Nick Chubb was next with over 300 attempts.
Breece was in another world that year.
His 2023 EPA? -21.76 or 47th out of 66 rushers with over 50 attempts.
rockaction
Footballguy
I don't know. A quick Google search suffices. The first one is here
This is another.
pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov
I know you all are smart and I definitely have heard probably the brightest dynasty mind (with respect to statistics) who is an author that gets nominated for fantasy writing awards and is cited by many of the Twitter/X analytics bros—and who is in and commissioner of one of my two leagues—tell me that I should bet on modern medicine, and that it works out for fantasy if you take that risk. But my experience and then these studies leave me less sanguine. I hope you all are aware of them so I haven't gone into huge detail, but I was pretty sure consensus, contrary to euphemism and platitude is that, no, you won't be the same.
This is another.
Return to Play Rates in NFL Wide Receivers and Running Backs After ACL Reconstruction: An Updated Analysis - PubMed
Our study found a lower RTP rate in RBs and WRs than previous studies conducted in the early 2000s. WRs who achieved RTP had decreased performance when compared with noninjured controls.
pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov
I know you all are smart and I definitely have heard probably the brightest dynasty mind (with respect to statistics) who is an author that gets nominated for fantasy writing awards and is cited by many of the Twitter/X analytics bros—and who is in and commissioner of one of my two leagues—tell me that I should bet on modern medicine, and that it works out for fantasy if you take that risk. But my experience and then these studies leave me less sanguine. I hope you all are aware of them so I haven't gone into huge detail, but I was pretty sure consensus, contrary to euphemism and platitude is that, no, you won't be the same.
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Wigglytuff's Gruff
Footballguy
He'll be coming back the same player, it's just whether you want to wait 9 months.
rockaction
Footballguy
Uh, no. I just linked to two studies that find careers are shorter and production lessened. I just don't see how repeating these worn sentiments is going to help us do anything but feel good.
rockaction
Footballguy
Sorry, bro. It wasn't even close. Nothing is ever going to be held constant in football because it's eleven moving parts, which is unlike baseball. But Breece just didn't get back there. An he is precisely the reason I've changed my tune on this issue.
Some people do return to there normal level some do not. There is really no way to know. It does take typically at least 18 months to return fully though.
pinkstapler
Footballguy
The sample size looks to be only over a 2 year span, the sample years are now a decade old, and there was 0 distinction made on caliber of player. There is a difference between my expected rehab from an ACL tear vs a professional athlete; and similarly, there will be differences between a practice squad guy and one of the most elite guys in the game. And not only is a two year sample size incredibly small, but also extremely limited to judge an injury which can take well over a year to completely rehab AND get back to 100%. Since we should all know by now healthy enough to play is not equivalent to 100% healthy.I don't know. A quick Google search suffices. The first one is here
This is another.
Return to Play Rates in NFL Wide Receivers and Running Backs After ACL Reconstruction: An Updated Analysis - PubMed
Our study found a lower RTP rate in RBs and WRs than previous studies conducted in the early 2000s. WRs who achieved RTP had decreased performance when compared with noninjured controls.
I know you all are smart and I definitely have heard probably the brightest dynasty mind (with respect to statistics) who is an author that gets nominated for fantasy writing awards and is cited by many of the Twitter/X analytics bros—and who is in and commissioner of one of my two leagues—tell me that I should bet on modern medicine, and that it works out for fantasy if you take that risk. But my experience and then these studies leave me less sanguine. I hope you all are aware of them so I haven't gone into huge detail, but I was pretty sure consensus, contrary to euphemism and platitude is that, no, you won't be the same.
Every body is ultimately different and we won't know if he'll return to pre-injury level until we see it on the field. People are justified to worry he might not return to his former self. But that is not a given, nor should 10 year old myopic studies which don't account for a myriad of things which would significantly skew results if accounted for such as age, injury history, recovery time, pre-injury athletic level, etc.
rockaction
Footballguy
The sample size looks to be only over a 2 year span, the sample years are now a decade old, and there was 0 distinction made on caliber of player. There is a difference between my expected rehab from an ACL tear vs a professional athlete; and similarly, there will be differences between a practice squad guy and one of the most elite guys in the game. And not only is a two year sample size incredibly small, but also extremely limited to judge an injury which can take well over a year to completely rehab AND get back to 100%. Since we should all know by now healthy enough to play is not equivalent to 100% healthy.I don't know. A quick Google search suffices. The first one is here
This is another.
Return to Play Rates in NFL Wide Receivers and Running Backs After ACL Reconstruction: An Updated Analysis - PubMed
Our study found a lower RTP rate in RBs and WRs than previous studies conducted in the early 2000s. WRs who achieved RTP had decreased performance when compared with noninjured controls.
I know you all are smart and I definitely have heard probably the brightest dynasty mind (with respect to statistics) who is an author that gets nominated for fantasy writing awards and is cited by many of the Twitter/X analytics bros—and who is in and commissioner of one of my two leagues—tell me that I should bet on modern medicine, and that it works out for fantasy if you take that risk. But my experience and then these studies leave me less sanguine. I hope you all are aware of them so I haven't gone into huge detail, but I was pretty sure consensus, contrary to euphemism and platitude is that, no, you won't be the same.
Every body is ultimately different and we won't know if he'll return to pre-injury level until we see it on the field. People are justified to worry he might not return to his former self. But that is not a given, nor should 10 year old myopic studies which don't account for a myriad of things which would significantly skew results if accounted for such as age, injury history, recovery time, pre-injury athletic level, etc.
Jeez, this is a long and heavily edited response on my end. Proceed only if you really are interested.
Sure. I'd agree that it's not a one-size fits all thing, but they're comparing only NFL players to each other in those studies. They do find that RTP (return to play) is different for those drafted in Rounds 1-3 as opposed to 4-7 but do not offer a reason. The authors that published the study that looked at draft capital it didn't seem to think that phenomenon was likely due to a superior bodily mechanism or stronger stature or anything like that, but rather, it was related to the investment by the team in the player and also a glimpse into his importance to the team.
So, anyway, I kind of get what you're saying and your assertions and I went out and found a ton of stuff and it took me about two hours, but I began to think about it and I wasn't thrilled with your tone and dismissiveness.
Anyone interested can type in some basic stuff, and if they want to study it then that's cool and more power to them and it will be more than you did. I'm no expert but there's a pretty overwhelming consensus and it isn't on your side.
Everybody's body is different but that isn't what you argued at first at all, and that's also off-putting. This is what you were arguing. This is Post 1 followed immediately by Post 2. I boldfaced the text so that we could isolate what you said about Nabers' value, or his rank among WRs, which will be a reflection of his value, if value is not how we’re rank ordering them in the first place (it is how I and most others would rank order them, therefore I make that assumption).
Post 1
Post 2
Those two, if I'm reading you right , contradict each other. He either has "the highest upside to reach that elite tier of the remaining WRs due to talent and situation" or there is only "a very, very small chance his value ever increases from here."
You should be able to see why saying those two separate things one post right after the other is confusing and problematic for the reader or listener who is wondering whether you think he will ascend to those elite tiers or whether he won't.
And this is apparently your position later in Post 2
Post 2 (continued)
But that isn't what you were saying in your first post, Post 1.
And I don't totally disagree with this, but if you check what I said it was that I'd take 6.5-7/8ths value for him. And it's weird because your last sentence tacitly admits we'll get nothing out of him for at least nine months while he holds this value, but eventually there’s a moment of reckoning (or beauty), and we will find out whether or not he can play at an NFL level again, never mind at a level where he is in the top 1-5% of NFL aesthetics and production, and in that cold reckoning we might find that he indeed loses the value we were worried he'd lose!
But at the very least this new evaluation obliterates the intangible value
So your argument is that he either will ascend to the elite tier, hold steady, or regress— but he won’t lose "significant" value during his dormancy, and for that reason you would hold him. But I posit to you that dormant value is actually illusory if we hold him—it disappears as soon as it’s football time again. It resets and is never realized.
So with this new assessment I might be offered less than the 7/8ths value that I was trying to get in back in Oct. of 2025 and so then after holding him for at least a year on IR (presumably costing me no roster spots, which is the only benefit of this so far) I am now shopping him for a lesser value in Oct. 2026 (or even 2027) than I would have gotten for him in 2025, and in addition to this, there were never any points scored on my behalf in 2025 as a result of that value that you deemed was a wise reason to hold—and now a year or two has gone by and I've got, say, not only no points but 5/8ths the value of what he had been in Oct. 2025 in the form of other, lesser players or reduced scoring. But at least I held his value on our team while he idled?
That doesn’t seem like a very compelling reason to hold Nabers vs. selling him due to his expected value and that value's likely plateau or slight drop. In fact, due to a reasoned assessment of what his expected value will likely be, holding actually seems unwise.
Oh, and don’t forget, we weren’t judging your move or ffmailme’s move (holding Nabers)—we were saying what we would do considering his value might never be higher, and we were told by you guys that either 1. our thoughts about his valuation were wrong or 2. it was suboptimal to sell in some way because of a future value that you claim has a “very, very small chance” of ever increasing, and if so, not for years.
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Smack Tripper
Footballguy
I"m hoping he will come back better, its his first significant time to rest all his many ailments
kutta
Footballguy
Wasn’t that like 20 years ago?
Gjallarhorn
Footballguy
Sorry that i did not use recent examples like your Jerry Rice and Jordy Nelson.
kutta
Footballguy
lol!
Well, my examples make sense because these guys came back years ago when the technology wasn’t nearly as good as it is now.
Does that make sense now?
