Ilov80s
Footballguy
If you are seeing that, why not sell now and that way you have secured this super high evaluation without having to take the risk of seeing what happens?
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WR Michael Thomas, Free Agent (3 Viewers)
- Thread starter Mr. Irrelevant
- Start date
bostonfred
Footballguy
Ilov80s
Footballguy
lol there are no risk free players, but depending on the make-up of your team you could spread the risk out over a few lesser players/picks, package him for a better player, etc. All I am saying is if you think people are over-valuing MT, then it is time to shop and see what offers are out there.
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
Carolina needs re-stock it's secondary a bit but they have a very good defense and Tampa Bay and Atlanta's defense seem to be on the rise. Things change quickly in the NFL.
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
Without arguing Cooks v. Thomas as players, my answer to this would be the Pats seem to (on paper at least) have a succession plan in place to Brady. Personally I'm pretty high on Jimmy Garropolo. I could see some arguing against Garropolo keeping the offense humming along smoothly, perhaps, but I couldn't see anyone arguing on behalf of Chase Daniels or Ryan Nassib keeping the Saints offense going strong afer Brees.
bostonfred
Footballguy
That's part of what you're saying. The other parts are that you think he's over valued, and I think the implication is that you want credit for calling it or you wouldn't have spent so much time posting over the last couple pages. Nothing wrong with that, that's what the board is here for.
I think you've made a good case for why he's unlikely to put up super elite wr1 overall numbers and I agree - I said almost the exact same thing earlier in this thread and laid out a very similar case. I also think his floor is higher than you seem to - I'm confident that he's their number one, I'm confident that their number one will be worth starting in fantasy for the next few years at least, and I think there's enough upside that I'd clearly prefer him to an all upside guy (Keenan Allen or Allen Robinson) or a high floor guy (Jarvis Landry or Edelman).
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
I'm not a true believer in Michael Thomas yet but it's hard to argue against his dynasty value without overthinking it. If he's not a top 12 dynasty WR at this point, who is?...
...and I have to admit I made a HUGE mistake taking Sterling Shepard (who I still like) over Thomas in the only league where I really had a chance to draft him. :(
...and I have to admit I made a HUGE mistake taking Sterling Shepard (who I still like) over Thomas in the only league where I really had a chance to draft him. :(
Mavis
Footballguy
Carolina is a good defensively coached team. LK misses some games and without him they are soft and concussions are the only injury that scare me because of how the NFL is super sensitive to them, so LK is on the head issue list. Atlanta and Tampa are on the rise, but they are still not that great, actually they are terrible. Its why Atlanta choked out a SB victory, that defense is just awful. A rise isnt saying much and I need to see it not care about perception of being on the rise.
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
Atlanta has added some good young talent and is well coach defensively - that's why they are on the rise - but admittedly it's not impossible for them to never reach the next level.
Mavis
Footballguy
And thats the point. I would take Thomas over a guy like Hopkins/Dez/DThomas without a second thought and it appears people love Hopkins and those guys instead. While the past is great measure for what people are capable of I dont care what Hopkins has done in the past when it translates to value going forward, I judge it based of what I think they will do. Its about this year and going forward. Thomas being younger and having a better QB with a sure fire bet to out produce Hopkins this year just like last year makes it a no brainer for me.Dr. Octopus said:
Mavis
Footballguy
I would love to see them get better, I am an Atlanta fan. But after that mess in the SB that is historic in fashion, that defense needs to show it. Atlanta is clearly not a great defensively coached team right now, but the potential and talent is their. Its young talent but not polished and still bad right now.Dr. Octopus said:
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Ilov80s
Footballguy
If people are considering him as the #1 overall WR in dynasty, yeah I think he is overvalued. To me he is roughly in the WR8-12 range. I don't think I necessarily want credit for calling him overrated or anything. Most of things I am posting, I am discovering as I go. To me, the surface looks amazing (young, good season, great offense) but as I have dug deeper, it's made me a bit skeptical of him. I think he has a very nice floor and is a safe player to own in any format, my concern here has always been ceiling related.bostonfred said:
Mavis
Footballguy
Still too low, tell me 8 players u rather have over him, keep in mind u liked my point about him being a no brainer of Hopkins, Dez and DThomas. Put 8 WRs in front of MThomas without using them. 5 tops, and thats being generous.
OBJ, Julio, Brown, Evans and maybe Green but I would take MT over Green. Cooper? Cooper has been in the NFL two years and has not done in either of those season what Thomas did in one. I like Cooper but wouldnt take him over Thomas either. Hilton is a solid player but is older and so is Nelson. So 5 WRs? Tough for me to do. I have Thomas as a 3-5 rank depending on your love for him. He is 6 in MFL ADP for all draft types and all scoring systems.
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Ilov80s
Footballguy
fightingillini
Footballguy
You don't think Thomas' price could increase again?Boone22 said:
Because if Thomas improves again this year, he will be at the level of OBJ and Evans where he will be nearly untouchable in a dynasty league. This might be your only chance to acquire him at a reasonable (but currently a premium) price.
Sure, your'e going to pay a premium to acquire him. But the reward could be an elite WR for years to come. Those kind of players don't come around very often. At worst, he becomes a solid low end WR1- good WR2 for years to come. IMO, he's worth the price and risk to take. He's very unlikely to bust going forward and he has the potential to be super elite.
Mavis
Footballguy
People still think Cooper is better than Thomas in fantasy football huh? LOL You dont get points for where you drafted him in the rookie drafts or where they went in the NFL drafts. Cooks? Seems people think he wont regress with Gronk and Edelman around. Seems Cooks is gonna walk in and dominate on an already SB winning team that really didnt need him, he didnt upgrade in any way but now he is being treated as a top 8 WR. Hilton? I'm on the fence with him, can go either way. I would even take Thomas over Green in dyno, redraft its a toss up.
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bostonfred
Footballguy
Ok, so if you're trying to learn, what did we really learn here?
You like Thomas but you don't see a huge ceiling.
You originally thought he looked amazing, but now feel like he's wr8-12 but are "a but skeptical"
You know there are no truly risk-free players but you'd be willing to trade down from him to multiple good players to spread out the risk.
What's the takeaway? I think you've described a mid-low dynasty wr1. There may be Cooper owners who feel totally confident in him but I wouldn't. There may be Hopkins owners who are positive he's going to bounce right back to wr1 status, I'm not.
I think most of us are confident that brown will be a stud. So when you see people giving up huge packages to get him, it's not just because they see him as elite, but safe and elite. When you see someone giving up a lot for Hopkins, it's because he's elite, but not safe. For Thomas, it might be safe but not quite elite. If you give up the farm for Hopkins and are right, good for you, but if you're wrong you just gave up a ton of capital. If you gave up that same capital for Thomas, hey great you got a wr1, but he's probably not going to be a 1500/15, win your league single handedly stud.
So that is exactly why the very best guys are so expensive - and why you should usually only pay those monster prices for guys you feel are elite and safe and relatively young. There aren't many.
You mentioned you would take cooks over him. I think that's nutty. I'm not convinced he's elite. I don't think he's safe at all. And while he's young, he might not have long with Brady. I'd love to get him cheap but I would be pleased if he gave me Michael Thomas numbers. If you are taking him over a "safer" pick (which seems crazy considering Thomas is a second year player), you're paying a premium for his upside. I'm willing to give up x in safety for y in potential production. Which means you need to think cooks can be a true, super elite stud. Or for duration - I'm willing to give up some safety and some upside for a young player with a young qb.
In practice, what does that mean for you? When i think safe, young, high floor, low upside guys i think Landry but there may be other similar guys. If your team is loaded with risk, but you've alteady given up your future first round pick, maybe you are willing to pay a small premium for someone safe. If you're already loaded with safe, you'd pay a lot less. If your league mates are similar then look over their roster to figure out what kind of players they might be looking for so you can structure the right kind of trade for them.
Ilov80s
Footballguy
Cooper has a better prospect profile, younger and projects to have a good QB for many years. I understand having Thomas higher. I don't understand the idea of laughing at someone with Cooper higher.
Ilov80s
Footballguy
Bronco Billy
Footballguy
I'm not sure that's true. I think it's more of a few here who are convinced they are correct and repeat the same thing over and over, apparently under the impression that if they repeat it often enough it will become a fact and all others will be forced to concede to their opinion.
A lot of overthinking going on.
bostonfred
Footballguy
Not that insane really. It's like 5 people arguing about whether he should go late first, early second or late second but mostly agreeing on what tier he belongs in. It's the dead time in the NFL off season
While Garoppolo isn't a total unknown, he's only thrown 94 NFL passes, has never thrown for 300 yards, and many believe when Brady goes, BB will too. No matter what HC you get, he'll be a massive downgrade from BB.Dr. Octopus said:
i don't think it's a foregone conclusion that Garoppollo inherits this plum situation in NE.
ILUVBEER99
Footballguy
Agree, preferring one of these guys over the other isn't laughable either way. Cooper has played 2 seasons, but he's 1.25 years younger than Thomas.
Cooper
June 18, 1994 - 23.0 years old
2015 - 72/1070/6
2016 - 82/1149/5
Thomas
March 3, 1993 - 24.25 years old
2016 - 92/1137/9
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
Mavis
Footballguy
I find it funny that people rank players higher than others based off of "prospect profile" when we already have seen their NFL game, which is all that matters. That does make me laugh and goes to the over thinking it that others have mentioned. Thomas is way more impressive of a player, thats my opinion, but also its statistically a fact. Cooper is younger but at certain points, its all the same. They are both young WRs with huge upside and good QBs, Thomas will provide better results and already has. We are splitting hairs but thats the point.
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Ilov80s
Footballguy
We disagree a lot. I think there is something to be said for Cooper having 2 thousand yard seasons before Thomas was even in the NFL. I will have to double check but I think Cooper and Moss are the only two WRs to have two 1000 yard seasons by age 22.
Mavis
Footballguy
We disagree because you have your facts wrong, Cooper only had one 1k season before MT was in the league, they both had 1K last year. Age 22 huh? Again, they are both young, worrying about getting 3 years is all that matters, dynos league dont last long and if you are looking further ahead than 3 years at most, u are doing it wrong.
Ilov80s
Footballguy
Yes I misspoke, meant to to say a thousand yard season, was ahead of myself thinking about my next thought.
I don't like Cooper more because I can get more years, it's because his performances at a younger age indicate a higher level of talent.
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Mavis
Footballguy
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Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
I always see this said on here, but I guess I've just been lucky. I'm in 5 dynasty leagues and they've been going on for 14, 9, 8, 7 and 6 years respectively all with some but not all that much turnover. None seem to be in any danger of folding.
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
Just looking at Cooper's end of season numbers is missing the boat on him. Dude had a monster first half of the year and was on pace for 100+ receptions and 1500 yards. Then he showed up on the injury report with two injuries and was pretty meh after that.
It's kind of funny to me that if Cooper had sat out with the injuries his value would actually be higher than it is right now with him instead playing through them at a lower capacity. As it is people forget how good he was when he was healthy last year.
ETA: It also doesn't hurt that Cooper is locked in with his stud QB for the foreseeable future, whereas we have no idea what New Orleans will look like here soon when Brees is done.
It's kind of funny to me that if Cooper had sat out with the injuries his value would actually be higher than it is right now with him instead playing through them at a lower capacity. As it is people forget how good he was when he was healthy last year.
ETA: It also doesn't hurt that Cooper is locked in with his stud QB for the foreseeable future, whereas we have no idea what New Orleans will look like here soon when Brees is done.
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Ilov80s
Footballguy
Maybe someone else has data on age vs experience and how it correlates. I breakout age is one of the strongest indicators from college to pros. It makes sense that would continue to the NFL. Thomas had the 20th most receiving yards of any WR 23 or younger over the last 5 seasons. If you limit that to just rookies, it's 2nd best. Big gap there and it's where I think the difference in evaluation of him may lie for some.
Mavis
Footballguy
The rule, but obviously their are exceptions. Average is about 5 years in my experience.
Mavis
Footballguy
WagesOfZin
Footballguy
Arguing about who's better between Thomas and Cooper seems to be kind of pointless focus on minutiae to me. Sorry.
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
As pointless as arguing who was better between OBJ and Allen Robinson last year? Or maybe between Evans and Watkins the year before?
Just assuming similarly tiered players are going to put up the same production perpetually is foolish imo. There's a very real chance that a few years from now one of these guys is a top 3 dynasty asset and the other one is being traded for late 1st round rookie picks or worse.
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Boston
Footballguy
In this day and age of analytics this may not be the deepest observation but Michael Thomas just looks the part of being a big time WR in today's NFL...if his head is on straight (and it definitely appears it is) the sky is the limit for him...I see him being a better Colston which is very legit...definitely someone you will not regret having on your FF team...
ILUVBEER99
Footballguy
I think what he's saying is that it's pointless to argue about it. Those who prefer Cooper aren't changing their minds no matter what argument is made, same with those who prefer Thomas. There are legit arguments on both sides.
Both players put up great numbers for a rookie. Thomas's rookie numbers were better, but Cooper was quite a bit younger and also put up great numbers.
In other words both seem like solid players for the future, splitting hairs between them is fruitless since nobody is changing their minds.
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
Possibly but that's not how I read it. It sounded more like he was saying they're both great so who cares. He specifically used the term minutiae which is typically used when splitting hairs about something deemed trivial, not something where each side is dug in.
WagesOfZin
Footballguy
There's also a very real chance they're both top 5-8 assets and the argument is still pointless
WagesOfZin
Footballguy
I'm pretty much saying at this stage, their value is close enough that it becomes an eye of the beholder exercise, of which arguing or debating over doesn't really produce anything useful.
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Bronco Billy
Footballguy
I agree with Zin and beer99. It's too early to determine which of the two will be the better over their careers given the data so far. Reasonable people in either camp should be able to see and concede points made by the other camp. If a person is digging in their heels on this right now and is adamant that they could not possibly be wrong then IMO they are getting way into the weeds and ought to revisit this a bit.
Ilov80s
Footballguy
I think there's only one person here that's dug in and laughed off the possibility Amari could have a better career than Thomas.
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
So what's the point in having this forum then? We don't really need it to decide whether we should prefer Michael Thomas or DeSean Jackson. Debating between two similarly highly priced players that could make or break your dynasty team for the next half decade seems right up the alley of what this kind of place was designed for.WagesOfZin said:
If some folks want to enter this thing like an arena instead of an open minded debate to better their teams then that is to their own detriment, but not a reason to cut off the discussion from folks who are actually here to improve and gain knowledge about these issues. I for one am very glad that we were allowed to have debates about Le'Veon Bell vs. Montee Ball as prospects that changed my mind into the Bell camp (and saved my dynasty team in the process) even though some might have considered the pair six of one, half a dozen of the other.
WagesOfZin
Footballguy
We disagree. It's cool.
need2know
Footballguy
GoBirds
Footballguy
Hankmoody
Footballguy
GoBirds
Footballguy
Agreed....all the added weapons in TB is only reason it even crossed my mind.
Got MT in the 12th last year....toot toot.
