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WR Mike Evans, TB (3 Viewers)

I have reluctantly moved Evans into my top 2 Dynasty PPR picks (esp since I traded to get the 2.02). I watched some A&M games, and Evans always seemed to be streaking down the sideline and Johnny would drop it in the bucket. So, I wrote him off as a one-trick pony: big guy, deep routes.

Slowly all the draft pundits and stats/observations began to push Evans up (in NFL and Fantasy drafts), due to his size, speed combination. I have a hard time arguing, but I'm personally not sold on him as this amazing WR1 prospect. He is not that smooth or sudden, the doesn't seem super flexible (like able to get low and dig a ball out), but he's fast enough to run by people and big enough to give a huge catch radius. And he catches pretty well.

So, by default, he slides into that #2 Dynasty Rookie draft spot, since RBs are all over the map and there's alot more good WRs after him. On the off chance that he does really develop as a route runner, I don't want to have wasted that 1.02 pick.

He does remind me alot of VJax: a guy I'd take in non-PPR and look for game where he gets behind the DEF and makes your day with 1-2 long balls.

After watching the combine drills, I thought he moved pretty well 'for a big guy'. He seemed to have really soft hands and catches fairly effortlessly. I have seen some highlights where he double catches balls into his body, but I've seen him snatch the ball out of the air also. He ran alot of different types of routes for Johnny's pro-day, so I guess I am feeling more comfortable with him as a 'solid' WR1 type. I can see him being a top 15 guy if he stays healthy and ends up in at least a decent situation.

 
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jurb26 said:
Evans has grown on me over the offseason. He is more athletic than I thought based on the combine and that is a positive. Still, I've got concerns about his stiffness from watching his real game action. He isn't very polished WR as well. He was able to muscle thru college DBs and also has enough speed to run by them, when given the chance. He was a very difficult draw for college CBs because of his size/speed combo. In reality however he doesn't posses great speed, just great size. No college CBs dared to jam him because he was simply too powerful. That won't happen in the NFL. Actually, I think NFL CBs will eat him up at the LOS because he doesn't use his hands efficiently and really survived on that raw power and size. That's not intended to be ultra negative, many WRs have this transitional gap. I think it will be a bigger learning curve than normal for Evans, though. On top of that I worry about his stiffness in making that transition. This same attribute trickled over to him boxing out severely undersized sized CBs on deep passes down field where at times it looked like a C boxing out a G on a basketball court. NFL DBs won't be such easy prey. I don't think he's particularly good at tracking the ball in the air, one of my big pet peeves in watching WRs. The good thing is although he's not great at it, he isn't bad at it either. He's no Baldwin but he's no AJ Green, in other words. He's body and physicality allow him easier corrections to this which is a good thing. Maybe I'm being overly critical of Evans but I think there is a high amount of hype surrounding him so I'm going to be critical.

Entering the offseason I had Evans out of my top 5 and now he's clearly in it. Big guys who can run and catch as well as him are always going to have a place in the NFL. I hope he lands in a situation with a good WR coach because he has natural ability and can improve on many of the things I'm concerned about if taught properly and a willingness to work are there.
So who is in your top 5 then?

 
I'm high on Adams. Higher than most. I imagine a lot would bump him out but I like him too much. Really, Evans replaced Landry for me. I still like Landry but pedestrian athleticism pushes him out of the top 5 with such good players this year.

 
Carter_Can_Fly said:
I like Mike Evans, but I can't tell if he is more Vincent Jackson or more Brandon Marshall. What I mean by that is Marshall has proven to be an elite guy that no matter situation or qb he is a guy that can catch 100 balls put up 1300 yards and double digit TD's.

Vincent Jackson has been great but rarely elite. I think Evans will translate to have numbers similar to Jackson which are still very good. I have him ranked number 2 behind Watkins who I think will be that guy that catches 90 plus balls every year and is more consistent game in and game out and year in and year out.
I'm a big fan of Marshall but you may want to check out his years in Miami.
86 catches 1014 yards 3 td's on 144 targets in 2010

81 catches 1217 yards and 6 td's on 141 targets in 2011

You have to evaluate the whole situation. Those numbes in context and given the situation could be argued to be elite. In those 2 years he had a combination of Matt Moore, Pennington, Henne and even Losman got in there to throw some balls to him. Also, he only played 14 games in 2010. If he plays in all 16 games he catches 90 plus balls. Therefore his floor as those were his 2 worst years (besides his rookie year where he barely played) even with back up quality QB's is pretty darn good. Keep in mind Marshall has caught 100 plus balls at least 5 times already in his career.

Furthermore I was also comparing Marshall to Vincent Jackson. I have nothing against Jackson but he has never been remotely close to as consistent or as good as Marshall throughout his career. Jackson has been an awesome YPC guy and a very good player but he has never caught more than 78 balls in a season. He also has never had 1 season where he has out produced Marshall yardage wise.

I guess I am on the side that thinks Evans is closer to Jackson vs Marshall. That to me is not a bad thing as Jackson has had some pretty good fantasy years. When you draft a guy at rookie pick 1.01 you are hoping he is going to be a top 10 player at his position sooner than later. Do I see that in Evans? That is what I am trying to figure out. I see it in Watkins and therefore I think he is the easy pick.

 
Bronco Billy said:
Xue said:
Evans probably won't and shouldn't be asked to run square ins/outs or comebacks a lot in the NFL.
This really struck me as an odd evaluation. Is your position that he's incapable of running these parts of the route tree or that a team would truncate its route tree significantly for its presumable WR1 because those routes don't have value in their offensive scheming?

Not taking issue with your overall evaluation, though I do see where player evaluations do become personal with you. Just wondering what your basis of thought is in this case.
That statement is aimed toward those who think Evans is too "stiff" to succeed in such routes. If I'm the team drafting Evans, I'd have him run intermediate and deep routes. I think he actually fits a vertical scheme very well the way Vincent Jackson did as a Charger: A lot of Go routes and deep posts.

 
Bronco Billy said:
Xue said:
Evans probably won't and shouldn't be asked to run square ins/outs or comebacks a lot in the NFL.
This really struck me as an odd evaluation. Is your position that he's incapable of running these parts of the route tree or that a team would truncate its route tree significantly for its presumable WR1 because those routes don't have value in their offensive scheming?Not taking issue with your overall evaluation, though I do see where player evaluations do become personal with you. Just wondering what your basis of thought is in this case.
That statement is aimed toward those who think Evans is too "stiff" to succeed in such routes. If I'm the team drafting Evans, I'd have him run intermediate and deep routes. I think he actually fits a vertical scheme very well the way Vincent Jackson did as a Charger: A lot of Go routes and deep posts.
Thanks.

 
Bronco Billy said:
Some people really outthink themselves in evaluating players. It's almost as if they are trying to create a foolproof formula for quantifying risk, and IMO it can't be done. The unknown variable of the human factor is simply too great.

As such, I try to simply my evaluationing process. In WRs I don't worry so much about measurables as I do about 3 things at the NFL level - 1) can they get separation? 2) Are their hands reliable? And 3) are they intelligent enough to think beyond the assigned route?

2 things create reliable separation in pro WRs - suddenness and fear. Pro CBs know the tricks of the trade when it comes to reading body movement and fakes, and know how to be physical enough to take guys off their routes - either pressing at the line, a subtle tug or hip as the WR slows, or putting their body where the WR wants to go before he gets there. Sudden ability means a WR can get into the CB and then get away from him before he can recover - and recovery for pro CBs is everything. If a WR doesn't have suddenness, then he has to create fear in the CB - that if the CB misses him he can't recover. That comes in two forms: raw speed or YAC. Either one makes a pro CB adjust their coverage to avoid big plays, and consequently creates separation. Without separation, a WR can be the biggest and most athletic guy in the world, but his catch window for the QB is only what the CB can't get to - meaning predominantly high throws to the far shoulder. That's too small for a QB to throw to often and be able to rely on.

Once a guy creates the window that a QB wants to throw into often, he has to be able to reliably hand catch the ball. Pro CBs are masters at getting a hand on an arm or tip the ball just after it arrives. A reliable target catches the ball away from his body, secures it quickly, and has good enough hands to hang onto the ball when conditions aren't perfect - the ball flutters or is tipped, someone is tugging at one arm, vision get screened for an instant, etc.

Then the WR has to be able to get on the same page as the QB. When to break off a route because the CB overplays or overcommits to the designed catch area, when to break off for the back shoulder throw, how to get past the down marker and still create room in order to get the first down. It's not necessarily high IQ as much as it is street smarts - football IQ if you will - and willingness to communicate with the QB.

Give me a WR with those three qualities and the rest is all gravy. It's why I was high on Keenan Allen last year and Lee this year. Take all your combine BS and use it as you will, I'll take the guy who knows how to get open, catches the football when he does, and is on the same page as the QB. That's the guy the QB wants to target a lot. After that, I'll look for all the shiny baubles that might make him special.

With Evans, I see a real problem with his separation ability. He definitely does not have suddenness, and he doesn't have the deep speed or YAC ability that creates fear. Because he can beat a real fast college CB doesn't mean that he'll reliably beat pro CBs who have technique, knowledge, experience, and catch up speed. So I worry about his ability to be a top pro WR. It doesn't mean with his great hands and his size that he won't have value. I just don't see where he is going to excel as a WR1 in the NFL.
You talk like there are a bunch of shutdown and/or even capable CBs in the NFL. Using PFF data, there are only 23 CBs with a PFF Coverage Rating of 1 or higher who played at least 60% of the snaps and only 17 of those played 75% of the snaps. That's basically less than 1 per team and almost 1 for only a little over HALF of the teams.

The fact is, most of the CBs in the NFL are "just there" and have very little impact.

 
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Rotoworld:

NFL insider Adam Caplan says a trade up for Texas A&M WR Mike Evans is on the Eagles' radar.
Caplan also notes Oregon State receiver Brandin Cooks is a possibility. The "target area for Brandin Cooks: 20-32 in first," Caplan tweeted. "Everything checks out well with him -- character, tape, speed." We think Odell Beckham Jr. would be an even better fit thanks to his contested catch ability, but he is less likely to be there.

Source: Adam Caplan on Twitter
 
Some people really outthink themselves in evaluating players. It's almost as if they are trying to create a foolproof formula for quantifying risk, and IMO it can't be done. The unknown variable of the human factor is simply too great.

As such, I try to simply my evaluationing process. In WRs I don't worry so much about measurables as I do about 3 things at the NFL level - 1) can they get separation? 2) Are their hands reliable? And 3) are they intelligent enough to think beyond the assigned route?

2 things create reliable separation in pro WRs - suddenness and fear. Pro CBs know the tricks of the trade when it comes to reading body movement and fakes, and know how to be physical enough to take guys off their routes - either pressing at the line, a subtle tug or hip as the WR slows, or putting their body where the WR wants to go before he gets there. Sudden ability means a WR can get into the CB and then get away from him before he can recover - and recovery for pro CBs is everything. If a WR doesn't have suddenness, then he has to create fear in the CB - that if the CB misses him he can't recover. That comes in two forms: raw speed or YAC. Either one makes a pro CB adjust their coverage to avoid big plays, and consequently creates separation. Without separation, a WR can be the biggest and most athletic guy in the world, but his catch window for the QB is only what the CB can't get to - meaning predominantly high throws to the far shoulder. That's too small for a QB to throw to often and be able to rely on.

Once a guy creates the window that a QB wants to throw into often, he has to be able to reliably hand catch the ball. Pro CBs are masters at getting a hand on an arm or tip the ball just after it arrives. A reliable target catches the ball away from his body, secures it quickly, and has good enough hands to hang onto the ball when conditions aren't perfect - the ball flutters or is tipped, someone is tugging at one arm, vision get screened for an instant, etc.

Then the WR has to be able to get on the same page as the QB. When to break off a route because the CB overplays or overcommits to the designed catch area, when to break off for the back shoulder throw, how to get past the down marker and still create room in order to get the first down. It's not necessarily high IQ as much as it is street smarts - football IQ if you will - and willingness to communicate with the QB.

Give me a WR with those three qualities and the rest is all gravy. It's why I was high on Keenan Allen last year and Lee this year. Take all your combine BS and use it as you will, I'll take the guy who knows how to get open, catches the football when he does, and is on the same page as the QB. That's the guy the QB wants to target a lot. After that, I'll look for all the shiny baubles that might make him special.

With Evans, I see a real problem with his separation ability. He definitely does not have suddenness, and he doesn't have the deep speed or YAC ability that creates fear. Because he can beat a real fast college CB doesn't mean that he'll reliably beat pro CBs who have technique, knowledge, experience, and catch up speed. So I worry about his ability to be a top pro WR. It doesn't mean with his great hands and his size that he won't have value. I just don't see where he is going to excel as a WR1 in the NFL.
You talk like there are a bunch of shutdown and/or even capable CBs in the NFL. Using PFF data, there are only 23 CBs with a PFF Coverage Rating of 1 or higher who played at least 60% of the snaps and only 17 of those played 75% of the snaps. That's basically less than 1 per team and almost 1 for only a little over HALF of the teams.The fact is, most of the CBs in the NFL are "just there" and have very little impact.
Well, it's certainly your prerogative to ignore how WRs will fare against pro CBs when you evaluate them. I prefer not to.

 
The fact is, most of the CBs in the NFL are "just there" and have very little impact.
This is an extremely odd thing to say. The fact of the matter is 99% of the CBs in the NFL are better than the CBs in college. Most often by a wide margin. Downplaying their ability in relation to a prospect we haven't seen play a down in the NFL is a foolish argument.

 
The fact is, most of the CBs in the NFL are "just there" and have very little impact.
This is an extremely odd thing to say. The fact of the matter is 99% of the CBs in the NFL are better than the CBs in college. Most often by a wide margin. Downplaying their ability in relation to a prospect we haven't seen play a down in the NFL is a foolish argument.
You're right, but I think he's getting at the point that NFL WR's today (helped by rules and offenses) are able to get open at will vs. most NFL CB's.

60% completion percentage used to be a good number for QB's, now it's a bare minimum and the best QB's are around 70%.

70 of the 90 highest completion percentages have been since 2000.

 
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The fact is, most of the CBs in the NFL are "just there" and have very little impact.
This is an extremely odd thing to say. The fact of the matter is 99% of the CBs in the NFL are better than the CBs in college. Most often by a wide margin. Downplaying their ability in relation to a prospect we haven't seen play a down in the NFL is a foolish argument.
It's not odd based on the numbers I quoted. How else would you interpret those numbers?

 
The fact is, most of the CBs in the NFL are "just there" and have very little impact.
This is an extremely odd thing to say. The fact of the matter is 99% of the CBs in the NFL are better than the CBs in college. Most often by a wide margin. Downplaying their ability in relation to a prospect we haven't seen play a down in the NFL is a foolish argument.
It's not odd based on the numbers I quoted. How else would you interpret those numbers?
I interpret your numbers of NFL players/starters going against NFL player/starters. Not NFL players/starters vs. college prospects or rookies making the transition.

 
Between Charles Davis, Bucky Brooks, and Gil Brandt, NFL.com employs some of the worst draft pundits of any major site.

 
Hadn't heard this before about Evans but Pete King had this to say about him in hi MMQB column.

http://mmqb.si.com/2014/04/21/2014-nfl-draft-rumors-monday-morning-quarterback/

Tampa Bay is partial to, among others, Texas A&M wide receiver Mike Evans at No. 7. I’ve watched a lot of Johnny Manziel tape recently, and I’ll say this about Evans: supremely talented, extremely hot-headed. He’d better cure his immaturity on the field, and fast.
He's spot on too. Watch gage first quarter of their bowl game vs Duke.

 
I like some fire and recievers are always divas. I actually kind of like that about him. I'm not a big Evans fan, I almost hope I'm not in a position to draft him. However I do hold the 1.2 and 1.5 in a superflex so I think I'm going to be. He's a guy I'll take as a boom bust.

 
That statement is aimed toward those who think Evans is too "stiff" to succeed in such routes. If I'm the team drafting Evans, I'd have him run intermediate and deep routes. I think he actually fits a vertical scheme very well the way Vincent Jackson did as a Charger: A lot of Go routes and deep posts.
If Evans ends up only succeeding on deep routes, he has the fantasy value of Mike Wallace.

 
That statement is aimed toward those who think Evans is too "stiff" to succeed in such routes. If I'm the team drafting Evans, I'd have him run intermediate and deep routes. I think he actually fits a vertical scheme very well the way Vincent Jackson did as a Charger: A lot of Go routes and deep posts.
If Evans ends up only succeeding on deep routes, he has the fantasy value of Mike Wallace.
Except Evans will be ten times the threat Wallace is in the red zone, so you have Mike Wallace with 12 touchdown potential.

 
The SI 64, No. 8: WR Mike EvansDoug Farrar

Excerpt:

Bio: Though there are many kinds of receivers who find success in the NFL, the war daddies at the position are the ones who have the size, strength and physical ability to win battles against cornerbacks at any level of the field — especially in the red zone and end zone. Texas A&M’s Mike Evans has proven, beyond a doubt, to be such a player. Though Johnny Manziel has been the face of the Aggies’ offense over the last two seasons, it could be argued that Evans became the heart.

A basketball player in high school, Evans accepted a scholarship offer from then-Texas A&M head coach Mike Sherman in 2011 and got to work building his body and his stat lines. After a redshirt year, Evans exploded onto the scene in 2012 with 82 catches for 1,105 yards and five touchdowns. In 2013, he gained 1,394 yards and scored 12 touchdowns on just 69 catches, increasing his yards-per-catch average from 13.5 to 20.2. More than ever in 2013, Evans became Manziel’s primary target when the pocket broke down, the quarterback had to run around to extend the play and defenses started to split. Evans proved to be very gifted at exploiting variances in coverage, and a great team became even better as a result.

As has been true for tight ends for years, Evans uses his basketball background to win the day in closely-contested matchups — basically, everywhere on the field is the paint for him.

“It’s helped a lot,” he said at the scouting combine of his hardwood background. “I think a lot of other basketball players should play football. We have the qualities. If there’s a jump ball in the air, treat it like a rebound. It helps me get off the press, use my quickness like when I used to dribble. Everything just incorporates into football.”

Evans doesn’t always look like a Calvin Johnson, Andre Johnson or Brandon Marshall — but you can see the raw ingredients, and NFL teams have, too. Of that, there is no doubt. In a league that looks for physical dominance as a primary trait, Evans is on the right track.

Strengths: Perhaps Evans’ greatest strength is his ability to get free in short spaces on a number of routes — he doesn’t just win vertical battles; he’s also very good at quick cuts for his size (6-foot-5, 231). And with his length, he’s able to expand his catch radius to bring in balls most receives simply can’t. Catches with his hands — Evans doesn’t wait for the ball to hit him in the chest, which allows him to reach for catches when falling away. He’s also surprisingly fast on straight vertical routes — Evans gets a head of steam going quickly and has a clear extra gear in the open field. He’s not a big, lumbering player; he has outstanding stride length and he knows how to use it. Evans will be a great help to any mobile quarterback, because he’s learned from playing with Manziel that you always have to keep focused on the extended play. When Manziel’s running around, Evans is moving with him and getting opening with his physicality.

Excellent blocker who gets his long arms extended and seems to enjoy mixing it up. In that same vein, he’s very comfortable breaking tackles and throwing stiff-arms. Tremendous threat on in-breaking routes (in-cuts, slants, posts) because it’s so hard to keep up with his speed and still deal with his height. Could be a dominant situational slot receiver; more NFL teams are taking their No. 1 targets and looking to create mismatches in this way.

Weaknesses: Focus is an issue at times — Evans drops balls he should catch, and he had to be talked back into the Chick-fil-A Bowl by Manziel after a couple of personal fouls. And like most bigger college receivers, Evans will need to expand his route tree in the NFL. His game, like Manziel’s, was based a great deal on improvisation, and his pro team might not like that prototype. Played against a lot of off-coverage designed to react to his quarterback; Evans will need to develop his foot fakes and hand moves against more aggressive press corners in the NFL.

Conclusion: Of all the receivers in this draft class, Evans has the most obvious potential to be the kind of touchdown machine and consistent gamebreaker that can define an offense. Sammy Watkins may be more explosive, and speed merchants like Odell Beckham Jr. and Brandin Cooks can burn it up the slot, but players like Evans are more rare and valuable to NFL teams because of one simple truth: Size and speed beats everything else when the football skills are there. And Evans is well on his way to adding his name to the list of players who embody this theory.

NFL player comparison: Vincent Jackson, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2nd round, 2005, Northern Colorado)
 
It seemed like every time I saw Manziel making a comeback, making some amazing play, digging his team out of trouble.... it was Evans he was throwing to. Evans looked to me every single time like he would be a big time pro. All the attention on Watkins and all the debate on who goes 3-9 or so always seems to make almost everyone overlook Evans.

 
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It seemed like every time I saw Manziel making a comeback, making some amazing play, digging his team out of trouble.... it was Evans he was throwing to. Evans looked to me every single time like he would be a big time pro. All the attention on Watkins and all the debate on who goes 3-9 or so always seems to make almost everyone overlook Evans.
You can look at this two ways. Manziel would hang onto the ball a lot and as a secondary it is tough to cover anyone for as long as you had to when Manziel was playing. Put a highlight reel on and you see that Evans does a great job after Manziel breaks the pocket to come back to the ball or get open but in the NFL that is much more rare as QB's don't play that way. In the NFL back yard ball is not as abundant. I am not saying Evans can't/won't be successful in an NFL offense as he is extremely talented. I happen to think his strength entering the NFL though is his ability to be a vertical threat and make plays down field. He is probably going to have a high yard per catch and a low amount of catches for the first few years. He is a younger Vincent Jackson.

 
It seemed like every time I saw Manziel making a comeback, making some amazing play, digging his team out of trouble.... it was Evans he was throwing to. Evans looked to me every single time like he would be a big time pro. All the attention on Watkins and all the debate on who goes 3-9 or so always seems to make almost everyone overlook Evans.
You can look at this two ways. Manziel would hang onto the ball a lot and as a secondary it is tough to cover anyone for as long as you had to when Manziel was playing. Put a highlight reel on and you see that Evans does a great job after Manziel breaks the pocket to come back to the ball or get open but in the NFL that is much more rare as QB's don't play that way. In the NFL back yard ball is not as abundant. I am not saying Evans can't/won't be successful in an NFL offense as he is extremely talented. I happen to think his strength entering the NFL though is his ability to be a vertical threat and make plays down field. He is probably going to have a high yard per catch and a low amount of catches for the first few years. He is a younger Vincent Jackson.
Yeah, Evans and Manziel both benefited highly from a lot of "broken plays." As you said, it's extremely difficult for any DB to cover much further than 5 seconds. Giving Evans credit for those plays, which many people do, just doesn't make much sense to me. The oline should get the credit IMO, but I've been saying that for a long time.
 
Taking into account the depth of this draft, what type of player or picks are you giving up to move into a spot where you could get him. I assume he will be a top 3 rookie pick in about every dyno

 
As a Longhorn, I'm biased towards Evans, which should add value to his stock...

In My Completely Biased Opinion -- Mike Evans is a beast and is going to make multiple pro bowls if he can stay healthy. He has a basketball background similar to Tony G, Antonio Gates, etc. He may grow out of the WR position into a flex TE or similar position, but either way the guy can run and he seems to catch everything... He has size to overpower corners, speed to fly by LBs, honestly he seems to have the complete package.

 
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