WR Mike Williams, LAC (2 Viewers)

[jtd13]

Im looking into buying Mike Williams. Dissly and Watkins for Williams and 2 1sts

I'm not sure Dissly and Watkins get you Williams, much less 2 1sts. 

 

[The Frankman]

Mike Williams caught 5-of-9 targets for 72 yards in the Chargers' Week 6 loss to the Steelers.

Williams could’ve had an even bigger day had he come down with a diving catch roughly 40 yards downfield, but he made up for the borderline drop with more than a few impressive plays. His finest featured a pancake on pass rusher Bud Dupree on a chip block before breaking two tackles on a quick pass and ultimately picking up a first down. The return of Hunter Henry won’t help Williams’ red zone target share, and Keenan Allen (six targets) will be more involved in future weeks. Still, Williams did rack up an absurd 235 air yards (per Josh Hermsmeyer) and remains capable of putting up splash performances. Note that Williams was helped off the field with what appeared to be a lower body injury after an unsuccessful diving attempt late in the game. Treat him as a boom-or-bust WR3 in Week 7 against the Titans.

 

[Faust]

Mike Williams caught 4-of-6 targets for 47 yards in the Chargers' Week 7 loss to the Titans.

Williams had a couple of awesome grabs, including an over the shoulder grab that required him to get his toes down before heading into the sideline. Unfortunately, his efforts went to waste in the Chargers' epic late-second loss. With Keenan Allen, Hunter Henry, Melvin Gordon, and Austin Ekeler all getting volume, Williams may have inconsistent usage moving forward, but he has upside every week. Williams will be a boom-or-bust WR3 in Chicago next week.

Oct 20, 2019, 8:00 PM ET

 

[Faust]

Mike Williams caught 3-of-4 targets for 111 yards in the Chargers' Week 9 win over the Packers.

Williams added a two-yard rush. Surprisingly, the 100-yard game was the first of his career. Williams had never before even reached 90, settling for a trio of 80-yard performances. He was buoyed by 56- and 46-yard receptions, doing major YAC damage on the 56-yarder. It was a nice day but hardly a guarantor of bigger days to come considering the limited looks. Week 10 Thursday night opponent Oakland does boast one of the league's worst pass defenses. Williams should find himself in the WR20-28 range in a week with six teams on bye.

Nov 3, 2019, 7:58 PM ET

 

[Faust]

Mike Williams caught 2-of-3 targets for 55 yards in the Chargers' Week 10 loss to the Raiders.

Coming off the first 100-yard game of his career — on four targets — Williams could muster only three looks as continued Raiders pressure prevented the Chargers from getting their deep passing game going. Williams did manage a YAC-less 45-yard grab but was otherwise an afterthought on a discombobulated night for the Bolts. He will be a low-floor WR3 for the Chargers' Week 11 "hosting" of the Chiefs in Mexico City.

Nov 8, 2019, 12:21 AM ET

 

[ericttspikes]

Was a big Williams fan in his Clemson days, and thought he'd be the perfect fit for Rivers. Looked like he broke out last year, but not sure what to make of this years performance and it has me questioning his value as a cornerstone dynasty hold. I can't tell if he's having trouble separating or running wrong routes, but the fact that he was out targeted by a guy I never heard of in Jason Moore, who looked like he was wearing concrete shoes, has me wondering what is up with Mike? I mean, he did catch 2 of 3 for 55, but only averaging 3 targets a game? What is his future with the Chargers? Just a guy?

 

[iamkoza]

Guy's on pace for 1000 yards. Had ten tds on 66 targets last year... The over correction this year is the complete opposite. 

 

[angman]

I think from what I've seen from Williams this year, he's been able to show some improvement from last year where it seemed like he was more of solely a downfield or redzone threat. This year, he's shown that he can generate some run after the catch yards (last week he had that massive run after the catch play) and work in intermediate zones. 

The issues to me seem two fold. First in terms of the TDs, Henry being out last year did inflate last year's TD number a little although I do think Williams is still a good redzone threat (and opposing teams do understand that). Last night, he was wide open for a TD on the Chargers first TD drive, but Rivers chose to go to Allen for a 3 yard gain instead. A couple plays later, Williams drew 2 Raiders defenders which left Henry wide open for his TD. He was also the target of a Rivers INT in the redzone (that got nullified due to penalty on the Raiders) on the next Chargers scoring drive. I don't think he's lost any red-zone prowess and is probably still due for some positive regression the rest of the year, but not to the level of last year when Henry was out. 

The bigger issue however is that the Chargers O-line sucks. The Chargers have better short or intermediate pass catching weapons in Allen, Henry and the RBs. Williams is still mainly used for deeper routes which helps create the space underneath for those other weapons. Because the O-Line is terrible, Rivers has no time to take the deep shots as often as they would like and has to get rid of the ball quickly to the other options. 

Still think Williams has a bright future, but the rest of this year might be tough as it doesn't look like the Chargers O-line is getting better any time soon. Hopefully the Week 12 bye does them some good.  

 

[Faust]

Mike Williams caught 2-of-5 targets for 76 yards in the Chargers' Week 11 loss to the Chiefs.

Williams caught a 26-yarder early in the first half but went catch-less the rest of the way until the final drive when he made a sensational 50-yard grab on a third down to keep the Chargers alive and out them in the red zone down one touchdown with less than a minute to play. Philip Rivers tossed his fourth interception a couple plays later, however. Williams still hasn't scored this season after catching 10 touchdowns last year. He'll be a WR3/4 in Week 13 against Denver after the bye.

Nov 19, 2019, 12:20 AM ET

 

[Judge Smails]

Beast of a receiver in high jump ball situations 

 

[Frenchy Fuqua]

Seems like this could be the week Mike Williams finally scores.

 

[Faust]

Mike Williams caught 5-of-7 targets for 117 yards in the Chargers' Week 13 loss to the Broncos.

Williams got loose for a monster 52 yard gain before halftime after two defenders ran into each other and fell down. Later he converted a 4th and 11 with fewer than three minutes remaining with a circus contested-catch deep down the sideline. The former No. 7 overall pick of the 2017 draft continues to make a truly amazing catch or two per week, but he’s now seen an absurd 69 targets this season without finding the end zone. Williams is too good to go much longer without a touchdown, but that’s pretty much been the case all season. Treat him as an upside WR4 in Week 14 against the Jaguars.

Dec 1, 2019, 7:49 PM ET

 

[Faust]

Mike Williams caught 2-of-3 targets for 63 yards and a touchdown in the Chargers’ Week 14 win over the Jaguars.

It took 71 targets, but Williams found the end zone. Williams’ touchdown was a ridiculous 44-yard diving catch over the top of Tre Herndon with the Chargers already leading 31-10. He scored 10 touchdowns on just 66 targets in 2018. The former No. 7 overall pick of the 2017 draft has now balled out in consecutive games after posting a 5-117-0 line in Week 13. Williams has more than seven targets in just two games this season, but he's routinely managed to come down with circus downfield receptions to at least provide a decent yardage floor. Treat him as a boom-or-bust WR3 in Week 15 against the Vikings’ mediocre group of corners.

Dec 8, 2019, 7:21 PM ET

 

[The Frankman]

Mike Williams caught 4-of-9 targets for 71 yards and one touchdown in the Chargers' Week 15 loss to the Vikings.

After not scoring Weeks 1-13, Williams has found the end zone in back-to-back weeks. He was targeted on a couple of Philip Rivers' interceptions in this one, but they were lazily-thrown ducks down the middle where Williams didn't really have chances to make plays on the ball. He's the only semblance of a downfield threat in this offense. Williams will be a TD-dependent WR2/3 for Week 16 against the lowly Raiders.

 

[Faust]

Chargers cratering, but Mike Williams blossoming into elite WR

 

[Faust]

Chargers exercised WR Mike Williams' fifth-year option.

Williams has posted 43-664-10 and 49-1,001-2 receiving lines over the past two seasons. He averaged a league-high 20.4 yards per reception in 2019, regularly coming down with circus catches despite the presence of multiple defenders. The concern in 2020 is the presence of Tyrod Taylor under center, although a switch to Justin Herbert could feasibly result in Williams being featured more than ever before. There's truly too much talent here to ignore. Tyreek Hill, Tyler Lockett, Tyrell Williams, Rob Gronkowski and Chris Godwin are the only players averaging more yards per target than Williams (9.8) among 109 dudes with at least 100 receptions over the past three seasons.

SOURCE: Albert Breer on Twitter

Apr 30, 2020, 11:49 AM ET

 

[menobrown]

I expect no team to waste the talents of their elite pass catchers like the Chargers will next year.

 

[Biabreakable]

While the yards per target for William's is really good it's also on low volume and without the context of all those yolo balls Rivers was throwing.

 

[BoltBacker]

While the yards per target for William's is really good it's also on low volume and without the context of all those yolo balls Rivers was throwing.

Agreed.

Just a few months ago you felt pretty happy to have Mike Williams and Mike Evans in dynasty. Now those two guys might have to actually get separation if they are going to get targets from Tyrod and Brady. The stock on those two guys should just be crashing. 

 

[Biabreakable]

Agreed.

Just a few months ago you felt pretty happy to have Mike Williams and Mike Evans in dynasty. Now those two guys might have to actually get separation if they are going to get targets from Tyrod and Brady. The stock on those two guys should just be crashing. 

I wonder if Reich can rein Rivers in a bit or not?

It's too many interceptions playing that way.

Seems good for Pittman in the short term. Not sure how much Rivers has left.

 

[Tau837]

I wonder if Reich can rein Rivers in a bit or not?

It's too many interceptions playing that way.

Seems good for Pittman in the short term. Not sure how much Rivers has left.

The narrative about Rivers last season is overblown. 5 of his 20 interceptions occurred when the team's win probability was 2.2% or less. Another 4 occurred when the team's win probability was less than 15%. He also had one when the target fell down coming out of his break and another that was batted up at the line. He also played behind a terrible pass blocking OL that was particularly bad on his blind side.

Reich was his QB coach in 2013 and OC in 2014-2015. RIvers' cumulative interception percentage in those seasons was 2.37%, which equates to about 13 interceptions on 550 passing attempts. Reich is obviously okay with that given all of the positives Rivers provides.

 

[tangfoot]

Reich was his QB coach in 2013 and OC in 2014-2015. RIvers' cumulative interception percentage in those seasons was 2.37%, which equates to about 13 interceptions on 550 passing attempts. Reich is obviously okay with that given all of the positives Rivers provides.

The problem I see is that Rivers arm deteriorated significantly from 2015 to 2019.

 

[Biabreakable]

The narrative about Rivers last season is overblown. 5 of his 20 interceptions occurred when the team's win probability was 2.2% or less. Another 4 occurred when the team's win probability was less than 15%. He also had one when the target fell down coming out of his break and another that was batted up at the line. He also played behind a terrible pass blocking OL that was particularly bad on his blind side.

Reich was his QB coach in 2013 and OC in 2014-2015. RIvers' cumulative interception percentage in those seasons was 2.37%, which equates to about 13 interceptions on 550 passing attempts. Reich is obviously okay with that given all of the positives Rivers provides.

Thanks for the insight as I didn't even realize/remember Reich had coached RIvers before.

I only saw the Chargers game against the Vikings last year, maybe parts of a couple of other games, but Rivers did not look as good as he has in the past to me.

Earlier in the game vs the Vikings Rivers connected to Williams on a seam route which was a dangerous throw but it ended up being a big play. They went back to the same play in the 2nd half and it was intercepted because now the defense was looking for that play which most teams won't risk.

The flip side of this of course is that RIvers is going to have the best protection from his offensive line since, hmm maybe ever? I think the Chargers had some good linemen briefly back in like 2005 or something when they still had LT.

The Colts do seem like they have bought in to Rivers based on the Pittman pick they are building around him.

 

[Wise Old Owl]

Rivers did not look as good

Id argue Rivers has never looked good. That ugly throwing motion just always got the job done

 

[Biabreakable]

Id argue Rivers has never looked good. That ugly throwing motion just always got the job done

This reminds me of a discussion we had a few years back about QB arm strength and i did some research and found out that Rivers as well as some other QB were able to increase their arm strength through training and technique.

My observation of him last year is that he lost some of his zip on the ball.

 

[Jail]

This reminds me of a discussion we had a few years back about QB arm strength and i did some research and found out that Rivers as well as some other QB were able to increase their arm strength through training and technique.

My observation of him last year is that he lost some of his zip on the ball.

Yeah that throwing motion has always been ugly,  but that ball comes out quickly and on target.  At least until last year.  Whether age or an injury he didn't talk about he just wasn't the same last year.  Sure he could make some great throws still,  but he was awfully inconsistent.  Especially late in the game. 

 

[rockaction]

Yeah that throwing motion has always been ugly,  but that ball comes out quickly and on target.  At least until last year.  Whether age or an injury he didn't talk about he just wasn't the same last year.  Sure he could make some great throws still,  but he was awfully inconsistent.  Especially late in the game. 

The Raider game on Thursday Night Football made me think he was totally washed. He didn't have anything on the ball and was still floating them into the middle of the field. It wasn't pretty. I think the Raiders had four picks. 

 

[Boston]

Was just looking at William's stats and they are really random (and not too impressive)...the yardage isn't bad at 1001 but he only had 49 receptions and two TDs and in my league (PPR) he had nine weeks in single digits and not one "blow up" week...I don't see Tyrod helping him so you have to hope Herbert is legit...if you think Rivers wasn't bad last year he really doesn't hold too much value right now.

 

[jm192]

I think Allen may be good enough to overcome the QB Change and post low end WR1 stats.  I think Williams is a guy that has a harder time.  I can see him finishing with 45 for 800 and 6 or 7.  Which isn't terrible.  

 

[JoeSteeler]

Any recent trades with him? Have him on my trade block (16 team PPR dynasty) and someone has come knocking.

Not to turn this into a AC post, but would Engram, Fant, or Gesicki be asking too much? (1.5 PPR for TE) 

Really no idea of his value. 

Thanks.

 

[menobrown]

I think Allen may be good enough to overcome the QB Change and post low end WR1 stats.  I think Williams is a guy that has a harder time.  I can see him finishing with 45 for 800 and 6 or 7.  Which isn't terrible.  

I see this totally opposite but let me clear I don't think Tyrod helps anyone. But I think Allen is about to get crushed and Williams will see the least drop off.

 

[Stinkin Ref]

The narrative about Rivers last season is overblown. 5 of his 20 interceptions occurred when the team's win probability was 2.2% or less. Another 4 occurred when the team's win probability was less than 15%. He also had one when the target fell down coming out of his break and another that was batted up at the line. He also played behind a terrible pass blocking OL that was particularly bad on his blind side.

Reich was his QB coach in 2013 and OC in 2014-2015. RIvers' cumulative interception percentage in those seasons was 2.37%, which equates to about 13 interceptions on 550 passing attempts. Reich is obviously okay with that given all of the positives Rivers provides.

thats some deep diving to defend him #### right there.....dang you got to have some free time to find that stuff.....somebody on payroll to research that for you or something..."hey Tommy, go look up the win % for the LAC at the time of every Rivers interception"....I'm kind of amazed somebody even thinks to put all those together...but I guess it's out there.....I understand subtracting a few for some hail mary's or something....but thats deep....anyway....solid work, trying to think how I would factor those type of things into an assessment or projections because I would venture to guess that ALL QB's %'s would look similar.....as far as win probablity at the time or whatever....except maybe our boy Winston who made Rivers look like Montana....

Rivers was bad last year....that is not overblown....he was not good....he was the opposite of good....whatever that is....Winston was like "I feel ya bruh"...and I think Rivers would even tell you that....and he probably wouldn't want people to make excuses for him....he didn't elevate his game when he needed too....he got worse..I assume your narrative is "they were going to lose anyway so it doesn't matter"....thats pretty weak....IMO

but on to Williams....the skill set is there.....Taylor can't play any worse than Rivers did last year.....LAC are going to have to throw and score some points in the AFC now that DEN and LAR have loaded up for bear to try and hang with KC....if Williams garners single coverage, I can see Taylor/rook taking some shots with him and some potential big plays.....I'm not a Charger fan but Williams is pretty good in jump ball situations....I think he has the advantage there as long as coverage can't slide over and help when the ball gets there like it often was able to do with Rivers throwing softballs....Allen doing hiss thing and drawing top CB....teams worrying about Eck in the flats, etc....in my mind I am kind of thinking somewhere in the middle of the last two years as far as TD's and a bump in receptions....Taylor or rookie....

 

[Stinkin Ref]

I see this totally opposite but let me clear I don't think Tyrod helps anyone. But I think Allen is about to get crushed and Williams will see the least drop off.

100% on board with this and almost said same in my post above

 

[menobrown]

Any recent trades with him? Have him on my trade block (16 team PPR dynasty) and someone has come knocking.

Not to turn this into a AC post, but would Engram, Fant, or Gesicki be asking too much? (1.5 PPR for TE) 

Really no idea of his value. 

Thanks.

My guess is opinions will be all over the place on this group. I'll give mine but I don't think any kind of consensus exists.

I view Engram as by far more valuable then Mike Williams. I got Fant as a little more valuable then Mike Williams. I got Mike Williams way more valuable then Gesicki.

So I"m super high on Engram and super low on Gesicki, these are not universally held opinions.

 

[Wigglytuff's Gruff]

Tyrod Taylor, for his faults, does throw a reasonable deep ball. And he's got the legs to extend plays long enough for those deeper routes to actually develop. 

It's not inconceivable that Williams contributes something meaningful this season. 

 

[Stinkin Ref]

Tyrod Taylor, for his faults, does throw a reasonable deep ball. And he's got the legs to extend plays long enough for those deeper routes to actually develop. 

It's not inconceivable that Williams contributes something meaningful this season. 

agree 100%....Allen is a pass for me at his ADP and reputation/perceived value.....I may be overreacting but his value with Rivers reminds me of Edelman/White with Brady....a codependency thing....I'll pass on Allen and move to the next guy on my list and take a flier on Williams at his ADP which seems to have plummeted.....

 

[Tau837]

thats some deep diving to defend him #### right there.....dang you got to have some free time to find that stuff.....somebody on payroll to research that for you or something..."hey Tommy, go look up the win % for the LAC at the time of every Rivers interception"....I'm kind of amazed somebody even thinks to put all those together...but I guess it's out there.....I understand subtracting a few for some hail mary's or something....but thats deep....anyway....solid work, trying to think how I would factor those type of things into an assessment or projections because I would venture to guess that ALL QB's %'s would look similar.....as far as win probablity at the time or whatever....except maybe our boy Winston who made Rivers look like Montana....

Rivers was bad last year....that is not overblown....he was not good....he was the opposite of good....whatever that is....Winston was like "I feel ya bruh"...and I think Rivers would even tell you that....and he probably wouldn't want people to make excuses for him....he didn't elevate his game when he needed too....he got worse..I assume your narrative is "they were going to lose anyway so it doesn't matter"....thats pretty weak....IMO

but on to Williams....the skill set is there.....Taylor can't play any worse than Rivers did last year.....LAC are going to have to throw and score some points in the AFC now that DEN and LAR have loaded up for bear to try and hang with KC....if Williams garners single coverage, I can see Taylor/rook taking some shots with him and some potential big plays.....I'm not a Charger fan but Williams is pretty good in jump ball situations....I think he has the advantage there as long as coverage can't slide over and help when the ball gets there like it often was able to do with Rivers throwing softballs....Allen doing hiss thing and drawing top CB....teams worrying about Eck in the flats, etc....in my mind I am kind of thinking somewhere in the middle of the last two years as far as TD's and a bump in receptions....Taylor or rookie....

Fine, I think your take is pretty weak. I don't know if you have followed the Chargers closely, but I have, and I still do. If you think you know more, more power to you. We will see who is right.

 at "Taylor can't play any worse than Rivers did last year". Good luck with that.

 

[Milkman]

Rivers is super overrated by SD fans......always has been. Teams don't let good franchise QB walk. They just don't. He had elite traits but he also had elite limitations. 

 

[tommyGunZ]

Rivers is super overrated by SD fans......always has been. Teams don't let good franchise QB walk. They just don't. He had elite traits but he also had elite limitations. 

Joe Montana walked. Brett Favre walked. Peyton Manning walked.  Johnny Unitas walked.  Warren Moon walked.  Kurt Warner walked. Tom Brady walked a month ago.

 

[Milkman]

Joe Montana walked. Brett Favre walked. Peyton Manning walked.  Johnny Unitas walked.  Warren Moon walked.  Kurt Warner walked. Tom Brady walked a month ago.

All past their prime or hurt. Guy was just not that good. 

Now if SD was smart they put the most elite OL ever assembled around him and one dominant WR because he only throws to one guy and they might have been alright 

 

[tommyGunZ]

All past their prime or hurt. Guy was just not that good. 

Now if SD was smart they put the most elite OL ever assembled around him and one dominant WR because he only throws to one guy and they might have been alright 

Rivers is also past his prime. Pretty much the same as all those dudes.  Check his career stats; if anything Rivers is vastly underrated.  

 

[Stinkin Ref]

Joe Montana walked. Brett Favre walked. Peyton Manning walked.  Johnny Unitas walked.  Warren Moon walked.  Kurt Warner walked. Tom Brady walked a month ago.

Montana had Young behind him.....Favre had Rodgers....Manning had four neck surgeries and his team had number one pick and took what at the time was the next big thing...Brady was a BB thing/done....(dont recall the others)....Rivers would have stayed if they would have wanted him...LAC said no thanks...we have no idea what we will be able to get with our pick and we are happy with Taylor....bye

 

[Stinkin Ref]

Fine, I think your take is pretty weak. I don't know if you have followed the Chargers closely, but I have, and I still do. If you think you know more, more power to you. We will see who is right.

 at "Taylor can't play any worse than Rivers did last year". Good luck with that.

Ek went to high school with my son and daughter.....I have reffed almost every one of his home middle school football and  basketball games as well as some of his high school games....he has been in my house....I have watched almost every snap of every game he has played since entering the league....Rivers looked done/toast...just IMO...there may be some decent times ahead cause he is still better than some and they will run a ton...I know he is competitive enough to try and prove people wrong ....but the arm strength and zip doesn’t seem to be there anymore and his motion allows defenders extra time to read and recover.....you want to say his int’s are because of win probability....I lean more toward his skills are seriously declining...

 

[FreshiZ]

Tyrod Taylor has no anticipation at all. It's the main reason he's never been able to succeed with the chances he's had (and he's had a lot of chances). This is good for Williams, bad for a possession guy like Allen.

 

[Hairy Snowman]

Tyrod Taylor has no anticipation at all. It's the main reason he's never been able to succeed with the chances he's had (and he's had a lot of chances). This is good for Williams, bad for a possession guy like Allen.

I'm not sure it is his anticipation or his release.  I lean more towards his slower release.  Anticipation gets better and better (generally) as QBs get more experience.  

 

[Tau837]

but the arm strength and zip doesn’t seem to be there anymore and his motion allows defenders extra time to read and recover

Couldn't disagree more. If what you say is true, he could not have achieved these rankings last season:

• #3 in completions and on-target throws
  
• #4 in passing yards and completed air yards
  
• #5 in passing first downs
  

you want to say his int’s are because of win probability....I lean more toward his skills are seriously declining...

That is not what I posted. They are not because of win probability. I pointed out that Rivers is unlike most QBs in that he is still out there trying to make plays downfield when there is virtually no chance his team can win the game, and that leads him to throw some interceptions on passes most QBs would never have attempted.

RIvers threw some bad interceptions last season, no doubt about it. But applying context shows that it wasn't as bad as the common narrative. He had the 7th lowest bad throw percentage in the league last season... performing better than a lot of notable QBs in that category, including Mahomes, Wilson, Brady, Rodgers, Jackson, Watson, Cousins, Stafford, Wentz, and Goff.

A lot of people already have their minds made up that he is done. I think they are wrong and that will prove out if there is a 2020 season.  

 

[BoltBacker]

Tyrod Taylor has no anticipation at all. It's the main reason he's never been able to succeed with the chances he's had (and he's had a lot of chances). This is good for Williams, bad for a possession guy like Allen.

I think it's bad for both. 

IMO Tyrod Taylor has to see a guy open before he throws to a guy. Mike Williams doesn't really create a lot of separation so he's not "open" a ton. Allen isn't your typical high-point catcher that is open even when he's covered..... but many of his receptions are made with a defender very nearby. It's his route running, his hand fighting, and ability to "create" separation as the ball that is in the air that make him better than most receivers. If I were to "buy" anything in this offense it would be Ekeler and Hunter Henry because they can be schemed "open" much more easily that either Williams or Allen.

Taylor is pretty much the anti-Rivers in every way which isn't really a dig. It just explains why both Williams and Allen are likely to see big drops in production. Rivers probably put way too much faith in his receivers to win against the defender and it often led to INT's. Taylor won't get nearly the same number of INT's because he simply won't throw the ball to you unless you are open. Unless you have a great OL(last time I checked Trey Pipkins at starting LT wasn't one of those guys) you don't have that time in the NFL. I just expect Taylor to run the ball a great deal and dump the ball off at or near the LOS. Which will draw the S's closer to the LOS. Which will make a 1-2 punch in the ground game of Ekeler/Taylor less effective running the ball. Which will lead to a LOT less TO's overall..... because they will be punting the ball a great deal. And all the "experts" will be shocked because they have "such a talented roster".

The counting stats like tackles in IDP could be pretty good for the Chargers as well. I would expect the defense to be on the field an awful lot.

 

[Stinkin Ref]

Couldn't disagree more. If what you say is true, he could not have achieved these rankings last season:

• #3 in completions and on-target throws
  
• #4 in passing yards and completed air yards
  
• #5 in passing first downs
  

That is not what I posted. They are not because of win probability. I pointed out that Rivers is unlike most QBs in that he is still out there trying to make plays downfield when there is virtually no chance his team can win the game, and that leads him to throw some interceptions on passes most QBs would never have attempted.

RIvers threw some bad interceptions last season, no doubt about it. But applying context shows that it wasn't as bad as the common narrative. He had the 7th lowest bad throw percentage in the league last season... performing better than a lot of notable QBs in that category, including Mahomes, Wilson, Brady, Rodgers, Jackson, Watson, Cousins, Stafford, Wentz, and Goff.

A lot of people already have their minds made up that he is done. I think they are wrong and that will prove out if there is a 2020 season.  

fair enough.....but about 37+% of his completions went to RB alone....with an 82% completion percentage to them...so completions and on target throws should look pretty good.....as well as his bad throw percentage.....when you heavily targeting short throws to RB....his down field throws are where he struggled with int and accuracy even if the yards were there....

 

[Tau837]

fair enough.....but about 37+% of his completions went to RB alone....with an 82% completion percentage to them...so completions and on target throws should look pretty good.....as well as his bad throw percentage.....when you heavily targeting short throws to RB....his down field throws are where he struggled with int and accuracy even if the yards were there....

Consider:

1. PFF characterizes passes at least 20 yards beyond the LOS as deep passes.
   
2. Per their numbers, Rivers attempted 79 deep passes last season, which was the 4th highest total in the league. The percentage of his targets that were deep targets (13.4%) was the 10th highest in the league. That seems to refute your points here to some degree.
   
3. Per their adjusted completion percentage on those attempts, which accounts for drops, Rivers was accurate on 41.8% of those attempts, which tied him with Lamar Jackson for 13th best in the league among QBs who attempted at least 32 deep attempts in the regular season (2/game). That doesn't seem to indicate any significant drop off in arm strength or "zip" or any other label for deep passing ability.
   

Anyway, enough  

We'll see how Williams fares with the new group of Chargers QBs... and how Rivers fares behind a great OL on the Colts.

 

[massraider]

I like Williams a lot, but man, there are three dudes there that can get 8-10 targets a game, and no one would be surprised.