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WR Mike Williams, NYJ (1 Viewer)

What’s the story here? Great game against the Saints, a bye week, followed by an absolute clunker. What gives? Can he be relied on going forward?

 
Genester said:
What’s the story here? Great game against the Saints, a bye week, followed by an absolute clunker. What gives? Can he be relied on going forward?
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No. But he will have some games like the Saints and some like this week. We just have to guess which wi be which.

 
1 catch for 4 yards in a great match up where his team scored 39 pts. and his QB threw for almost 350 yards proves that he can't be relied on. Good option in best ball leagues, high variance crapshoot in all others. 

 
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Hayden Winks' calls him a "Big-play threat with no floor"; pretty much spot on, he's at best a boom-bust WR3 with the potential to get you a zero when he busts.

 
Mike Williams caught 5-of-8 targets for 99 yards and one touchdown in the Chargers' Week 8 loss to the Broncos.

Williams skied over the top of the corner for a 24-yard touchdown grab in the third quarter. Justin Herbert tried to hit him again in the end zone in the fourth quarter on a jump-ball, but Bryce Callahan ended up picking it off. Williams has three sub-20 yards games this season but has as high of a ceiling as most wideouts. His weekly range of outcomes is just so wide, making him a boom-bust WR3 most Sundays. Williams will have an easier Week 9 matchup against the Raiders.

Nov 1, 2020, 7:53 PM ET
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Mike Williams caught 2-of-5 targets for 38 yards in Week 10 against the Dolphins.

The yards are the fewest for Williams since Week 7. Williams didn't do much in this one. He couldn't come down with an end-zone throw from Justin Herbert and was out-targeted by Jalen Guyton (6). Williams will be a touchdown-dependent WR3 for a Week 11 matchup with the Jets.

- Rotoworld
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Mike Williams (back) returned to Chargers practice on Tuesday, getting in a "limited" session. 

Williams missed the majority of Sunday's win over the Falcons, drawing zero targets. Considering the fact that he could not return in Week 14, we would not take Williams' short-week status for granted, but this does tentatively put him on track to suit up against the Raiders on Thursday. If Williams goes, he will find himself on the WR3/4 borderline for the fantasy semifinals. It's a good matchup, but a volatile player. 

Dec 15, 2020, 4:21 PM ET
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Chargers listed WR Mike Williams (back) as questionable for Thursday's game against the Raiders.

Williams got in a limited practice session on Tuesday after missing the majority of Week 14 following the injury. A true "questionable" tag seems to be fitting here, but we will know when inactives are released if Williams is suiting up against the Raiders' 21st ranked pass defense according to DVOA.

Dec 16, 2020, 6:13 PM ET
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NFL Network's Tom Pelissero reports Mike Williams (back) is a "true game-time decision" for Week 15 against the Raiders.

As is Keenan Allen (hamstring), who exited for a brief period in the fourth quarter of Sunday's win over the Falcons. Tyron Johnson most recently spiked 6/55/1 on seven targets in place of Williams in that one and would emerge as a season-long FLEX play if the latter is officially scratched pre-game. Jalen Guyton would also become relevant for deeper leagues if both Allen and Williams can't go.

SOURCE: Tom Pelissero on Twitter

Dec 17, 2020, 6:52 AM ET
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ESPN's Adam Schefter reports Mike Williams (back) is not expected to play in Week 15 against the Raiders.

And to make matters worse, Keenan Allen (hamstring) will reportedly be limited even if he is able to play. Tyron Johnson, who most recently recorded 6/55/1 off the bench for Williams in Sunday's win over the Falcons, and Jalen Guyton will instead be called on to start outside of Hunter Henry Thursday night. Johnson suddenly becomes an intriguing WR2/3 play in season-long playoffs since the Raiders will be without 4-5 key starters on defense. Austin Ekeler and Henry should also become direct beneficiaries in a tremendous matchup.

SOURCE: Adam Schefter on Twitter

Dec 17, 2020, 11:20 AM ET
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Chargers OC Joe Lombardi said he bets WR Mike Williams will "have nice numbers this year."

Williams could have posted "nice numbers" last year but he was one of the few players on the Chargers who were inefficient despite catching passes from the Offensive Rookie of the Year. Williams' mark of 8.9 yards per target was a three-year low for the field-stretching receiver. He led the Chargers in air yards but Keenan Allen posted over 200 more receiving yards. The volume is there for a WR3 season from Williams but his efficiency needs to take a step forward. A full offseason working with Justin Herbert should at least help the two get on the same page this year. 

SOURCE: Gilbert Manzano on Twitter

Jun 1, 2021, 5:31 PM ET
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Highly paid Mike Williams has room to improve in Chargers’ receiving corps

Excerpt:

Only nine wide receivers in the NFL are scheduled to have a larger cap hit in 2021 than Mike Williams.

His $15.68-million number is the result of the Chargers exercising the fifth-year option of his rookie contract.

The personal windfall means Williams will have a higher salary this season than Jarvis Landry, DeAndre Hopkins and Michael Thomas, each of whom has made multiple Pro Bowls.

Williams, the seventh overall pick in the 2017 NFL draft, never has been a Pro Bowl choice. He has one 1,000-yard season and another 10-touchdown season and is one of the league’s best at going over defensive backs to win 50/50 balls.

But there’s plenty of room for Williams to be more productive and consistent, making this season the most significant yet of his still young career.

Williams, 26, at times disappeared last year, a somewhat odd development given the award-winning emergence of rookie quarterback Justin Herbert, who relied heavily on Keenan Allen and Hunter Henry.

Averaging slightly more than three receptions a game, Williams became even less of a downfield threat than Jalen Guyton and Tyron Johnson, both of whom possess the speed to stress secondaries.

Henry, who was targeted 93 times in 2020, is now gone, having departed for New England via free agency.

And, while the Chargers would love to see Guyton and Johnson build off what they achieved last season, they would also welcome more from Williams, who has four career 100-yard games. Allen had four 100-yard games in 2020 alone.
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Mike Williams is expected to play the "X" receiver spot in new OC Joe Lombardi's offense.

It's the Michael Thomas spot in the offense Lombardi, the former QBs coach of the Saints, is bringing over from New Orleans. Daniel Popper of The Athletic believes "that should mean a lot of targets" for Williams. Entering the final year of his contract, Williams is obviously seeking a big year in search of his second deal, whether that's from the Chargers or someone else. If Williams truly plays the Thomas role, that could mean more targets schemed to him closer to the line of scrimmage. But the Chargers do still employ Keenan Allen, who makes more sense for that. Williams should still be in line for a bigger year in his second season with Justin Herbert. Williams has big upside as the current WR51 in half-PPR ADP.

SOURCE: The Athletic

Jun 30, 2021, 1:12 PM ET
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Faust said:
“There’s going to be a lot more targets than I ever had in previous years”

- Mike Williams via the PFF Fantasy Podcast 
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I believe him. Main concern for me is he's struggled to stay healthy previously and now he's going to be asked to do more.

 
menobrown said:
I believe him. Main concern for me is he's struggled to stay healthy previously and now he's going to be asked to do more.
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Remind me is he’s one of those guys who is always on the injury report / limited. I owned him the year he went off for 10 TDs but not since. He’s played (appeared) in 46/48 G the last three years but two of those his snap count was in the 60-68% range.

Historically he’s been super inconsistent, but I love him as a WR5/6 in the 10th-11th (current ADP.)

 
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Already dealing with a "minor hip injury"?

 I was ALMOST SUCKED BACK IN at his current cost. Now he is just another fully avoid, injury/sucky production/no targets disaster that I'm washing my hands of.

I can't imagine how dynasty owners feel.

I'd probably trade him in Dynasty for a doughnut and cup of coffee at WaWa.       :wall:

 TZM

 
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I have him projected for 150 targets, leading to 90/1391/10. Which assumes health. But still - the upside is incredible in this offense. He's a late dart throw - why not throw it?

 
Instinctive said:
I have him projected for 150 targets, leading to 90/1391/10. Which assumes health. But still - the upside is incredible in this offense. He's a late dart throw - why not throw it?
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Those who have owned and watched him put up 4 weak years for a WR 2 with Rivers and Herbert at QB, only surpassing 760 yards once know not to project him for fourteen hundred yards. He's a clogger you have to hold because no one will give you his value and yet he isn't ever an asset unless Allen is hurt.

I'll toss my darts elsewhere.

 
Catbird said:
Those who have owned and watched him put up 4 weak years for a WR 2 with Rivers and Herbert at QB, only surpassing 760 yards once know not to project him for fourteen hundred yards. He's a clogger you have to hold because no one will give you his value and yet he isn't ever an asset unless Allen is hurt.

I'll toss my darts elsewhere.
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But why are those years weak? (And one of the clearly wasn't weak, fwiw). 

Injuries. You're welcome to believe some guys get hurt more than others. I'll believe that some guys are unluckier than others and they're all playing football.

 
Instinctive said:
It's up. Let's see if folks are engaged and interested in underlying assumptions, or prefer the ROFL emoji and nothing additive ;)
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I'll take that as a comment on my post. I'll just say that I have watched every Chargers game throughout Williams' career, and I think you projecting career highs by large margins on targets, receptions, and receiving yards has no objective basis. It could happen, but the probability (without injury to other targets) is very low.

  • He has never had more than 90 targets. You are projecting 150 (+67%).
  • He has never had more than 49 receptions. You are projecting 90 (+84%).
  • He has never had more than 1001 receiving yards. You are projecting 1391 (+39%).
Meanwhile, the Chargers have a deep and talented group of receivers, as I posted earlier. I will take the under on every one of your projections - targets, receptions, receiving yards, and receiving TDs. I don't think it will be particularly close.

YMMV.

 
Just Win Baby said:
I'll take that as a comment on my post. I'll just say that I have watched every Chargers game throughout Williams' career, and I think you projecting career highs by large margins on targets, receptions, and receiving yards has no objective basis. It could happen, but the probability (without injury to other targets) is very low.

  • He has never had more than 90 targets. You are projecting 150 (+67%).
  • He has never had more than 49 receptions. You are projecting 90 (+84%).
  • He has never had more than 1001 receiving yards. You are projecting 1391 (+39%).
Meanwhile, the Chargers have a deep and talented group of receivers, as I posted earlier. I will take the under on every one of your projections - targets, receptions, receiving yards, and receiving TDs. I don't think it will be particularly close.

YMMV.
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Perceptive! And willing to dive in on the merits, which I know from your past anyway :)  

I mean, I'll take the under too. That's just smart betting. 

He's the x receiver in Joe's offense. And in games he has played the full game in recently, his target share has been above 20%, with an average (as best I can tell) of around 8/game - certainly not the 9.4 I've got down here, but not that far off, is it? I imagine one can quibble with my gamelog grabbing and trying to align with snaps and such (definitely not a science).  

I think anytime you project something that nobody has done before to happen, the odds are against you. But if he plays all 16 games, and he hits the 9.3 YPT I have down (less than his career average, and less than two of his seasons above 10 and 11), it's certainly possible.

But this is the value I see in looking at underlying metrics instead of totals. All 3 of the things you posted are true - and great points. But all three are also influenced by injury. So the underlying assumption to some extent is reliant on the injuries. 

As a Chargers guy, what would you suggest for a target breakdown? I have 15% to Ekeler, 30% to Allen, 25% to Williams, 15% to Cook and Parham, and the remaining 15% scattered - I think with the new OC there's a likely concentration of targets. Are Jalen Guyton and Tyron Johnson that good? (asking, I thought Guyton was just a deep guy and haven't heard of the others).

 
JetMaxx said:
With the majority likely on the other side given his top 10 draft status, how about you tell us why his 4 years aren’t weak. 
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Average of 9.5 yards per target. 6.5% of targets go for TDs, which is decently above the receiving average. Fantastic yards per catch with great aDOT numbers. All of those are great metrics to me. And he's been unlucky with injuries.

 
Instinctive said:
Average of 9.5 yards per target. 6.5% of targets go for TDs, which is decently above the receiving average. Fantastic yards per catch with great aDOT numbers. All of those are great metrics to me. And he's been unlucky with injuries.
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4% of his targets the past 2 seasons went for TDs. Far cry from 6.5%... big difference that has no basis in reality.

 
Instinctive said:
As a Chargers guy, what would you suggest for a target breakdown? I have 15% to Ekeler, 30% to Allen, 25% to Williams, 15% to Cook and Parham, and the remaining 15% scattered - I think with the new OC there's a likely concentration of targets. Are Jalen Guyton and Tyron Johnson that good? (asking, I thought Guyton was just a deep guy and haven't heard of the others).
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Gut reaction:

  • 25% RB

    20% Ekeler
  • 5% Other RBs

[*]20% TE

  • 12% Cook
  • 5% Parham
  • 3% Other

[*]55% WR

  • 25% Allen
  • 15% Williams
  • 15% other WRs - Palmer, Johnson, Guyton, et al.

Pretty sure this doesn't support your viewpoint.

 
Just Win Baby said:
Gut reaction:

  • 25% RB

    20% Ekeler
  • 5% Other RBs

[*]20% TE

  • 12% Cook
  • 5% Parham
  • 3% Other

[*]55% WR

  • 25% Allen
  • 15% Williams
  • 15% other WRs - Palmer, Johnson, Guyton, et al.

Pretty sure this doesn't support your viewpoint.
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Thanks!

I'm not looking for support. I'm looking for good discussion where I might learn something - so, much appreciated, friend. 

 
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