Williams had 12 targets, which is a robust 25.5% target share. That would be by far his career best and would certainly imply a career season for him if he maintains that share.
As for total targets and production, observations:
- Herbert had 47 pass attempts, was sacked 2 times, and did not scramble, so he had 49 dropbacks. The most pass attempts/game all time was 45.4 (Stafford 2012), second highest was 43.2 (Bledsoe 1994), and third highest was 42.4 (3 players, most recent Peyton 2010). I doubt Herbert will drop back 49 times per game this season, which implies a reduction in overall targets per game compared to game 1.
- The Chargers ran 78 offensive plays. Last season, the Chargers led the NFL by averaging 70.4 plays per game. I doubt they will average 78 plays per game this season, which may imply a reduction in overall targets per game compared to game 1.
- Ignoring the 3 kneeldowns at the end of the game, the Chargers had 49 dropbacks and 26 rushing attempts, which is a 65/35 split. OC Lombardi came from the Saints, where the splits were more balanced. If Ekeler doesn't get hurt, I doubt the Chargers will stick with 65% passing, which implies a reduction in overall targets per game compared to game 1.
I agree that 12 targets/game is an unrealistic expectation, I hope it didn't seem like I was suggesting that would be the norm.
Lombardi has been with Sean Payton since 2007 (except for 2014 & 2015 when he was OC in Det) and those teams averaged about 38 passes/game. That number dipped to 34 passes/game over the last four years coincidently, or not, with Kamara joining the team and the defense becoming much stronger.
I think it is realistic to project somewhere between 35-38 passes per game in San Diego so, yeah 12 targets/game isn't going to be a regular occurrence.
Williams is the clear #2 WR and looks like the clear #2 target in the passing game. He got 75% of the snaps (Allen - 83%, Guyton 65%, Cook 58%).
Ekeler will catch passes going forward, of course, but he is not a high volume runner and they were never going to slam him into the line 20 times/game in the first place. They don't really have a back who can do that so Ekeler's targets seem just as likely to come from his running share as anything. Ekeler as the lead back is also an argument for their being a higher than anticipated # of pass attempts/game.
But more than anything; the reason I am so optimistic is that it looks like, for the first time in his career, Williams is going to be getting high quality, high % targets. His career Y/R is 17.3, they threw him a bunch of 50:50 balls and told him to go get them. He has been used almost exclusively to clear out underneath defenders, which seems kind of crazy for a guy they invested so much draft capital in.
Against Washington Lombardi had Williams running precise routes all over the short & mid range of the field, and let him use his big body to shield defenders. They called two end zone plays for him including a beautiful isolation play that was never going anywhere but to Williams or out of the back of the end zone on the game winning TD. If he is going to be used on high % targets, particularly around the goal line then he should have a great year on 8-9 targets/game. He should absolutely blow his redraft position out of the water.