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WR Mike Williams, Retired (1 Viewer)

Yes, he had a fluke TD season with 10 TDs in 2019, with Rivers passing to him in a completely different offense. Last season, in the offense with QB Herbert, he had 5 receiving TDs. :shrug:  
Which was 5.8% of targets, certainly in the 6.5% ballpark. 

I believe the high is more likely with his talent and pedigree. I could certainly be wrong. Would be neither the first nor last time.

 
Which was 5.8% of targets, certainly in the 6.5% ballpark. 

I believe the high is more likely with his talent and pedigree. I could certainly be wrong. Would be neither the first nor last time.


The issue I have is that numbers rarely scale. So that 5.8% on 85 targets is unlikely to scale to 6.5% on 150 targets. I would think this goes without saying, yet here we are.

 
So is the second to last season of Rivers less likely to be good than the 2nd season of Herbert? Because his 2018 number is 15%. Why pick last season instead of that one? It feels like we're just picking and choosing, which is why I go to a career sample (if he can do it over 260 targets why not over 150?) for most of these things and adjust a little based on circumstance vs the career. Because 15% on 66 targets could certainly scale down to 6.5% on 150.

This season is probably the best QB play he's ever had, the oldest Allen has ever been, etc. Right?

 
That's a bit obtuse. 

Williams is in a season where the only WR ahead of him is nearing the end of his prime, whereas Williams himself is nearing entering his own.


Interesting that the Chargers haven't extended him...and they drafted Palmer.   

The organization doesn't seem to be a big fan.

 
Interesting that the Chargers haven't extended him...and they drafted Palmer.   

The organization doesn't seem to be a big fan.
That is interesting. Hmmmmm. Should take a look at cap stuff then. Not as good on NFL cap as on NBA - does he become an RFA they can tender now?

 
They picked up his 5th year option, and since he was a high 1st rounder that explains his very high cap hit this year. It seems they want to see what he does this year, in the new system with a full offseason, before committing big money, which makes perfect sense IMO- he's shown flashes but never really put it all together. They can either extend him after this year or use the tag, but that would only be an option if he goes bonkers (like Instinctive's projections).

Never say never, but there's pretty close to 0% chance Williams come even close to these numbers- he'd need Allen and Ekeler to miss significant chunks of the season, and even then I think projecting him to have as many receptions as his career high in targets is pretty unrealistic. I remain cautiously optimistic that he can have a good season, but not this good.

 
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That is interesting. Hmmmmm. Should take a look at cap stuff then. Not as good on NFL cap as on NBA - does he become an RFA they can tender now?
I wouldn't read anything into the contract status.  He's on a big dollar $15M salary since it's his 5th year option so the team doesn't really have a mechanism to come at him with a lowball offer and he has no leverage to ask for a raise based on his output.  This is prototypical "wait and see" territory.  Devante Parker is a good comp for the current scenario (minus the alpha WR in front of him).  MIA exercised his 5th year option at about $10M and when he didn't blow up he re-signed with the for 4/$30M.

If he doesn't sign an extension he'll be an Unrestricted Free Agent and the Chargers can Franchise Tag him or let him test the market.  Spotrac has a Market Value tool that predicts approximate value of next contract and it's generally pretty solid.  His number on the tool is $10M so this will all depend on if LAC want to put that much into a WR2 or if they want to budget it elsewhere.  I don't know if this accounts for the recent roller coaster that league revenues are from COVID - 2021 is unusually low and there's new TV revenue renewable next year that could cause a massive spike so 2022 UFA's are expected to reap those benefits but the number will certainly be adjusted relative to the macro market.

Mike Williams is a favorite target for me for best ball formats.  Barring injury you can't risk starting him on a weekly basis but he's gonna have some huge games so best ball you don't have to chase his points, they come right to you.

 
Instinctive said:
does he become an RFA they can tender now?
Player only become restricted free agents if they have 3 accrued seasons when they hit free agency. With the current contract structure giving every drafted player a 4 year contract, it basically means only UDFAs become RFAs. 

 
Player only become restricted free agents if they have 3 accrued seasons when they hit free agency. With the current contract structure giving every drafted player a 4 year contract, it basically means only UDFAs become RFAs. 
Nah, players released prior to rookie contract completion (Haskins for example, 1 year) can frequently sign shorter deals and become RFA as well.  Lots of late round guys end up this way too.  Once released they probably only get a 1 or 3 year deal offered by the second team.

 
Nah, players released prior to rookie contract completion (Haskins for example, 1 year) can frequently sign shorter deals and become RFA as well.  Lots of late round guys end up this way too.  Once released they probably only get a 1 or 3 year deal offered by the second team.
You're right. Wasn't thinking about guys getting cut and getting 1-2 year deals on another contract. But for guys who got drafted and finish their rookie contract, RFA isn't an option.

 
Instinctive said:
I have him projected for 150 targets, leading to 90/1391/10. Which assumes health. But still - the upside is incredible in this offense. He's a late dart throw - why not throw it?


He's on my desperation list if I need some late upside at WR. But in my league, rosters spots are valuable. There is no such thing as a cost-free draft pick. The cost is always at-minimum, the top guy sitting on the wire. YMMV

 
Instinctive said:
So is the second to last season of Rivers less likely to be good than the 2nd season of Herbert? Because his 2018 number is 15%. Why pick last season instead of that one?
Because Rivers and the old offense are different than Herbert and the new offense.

Instinctive said:
It feels like we're just picking and choosing,
This picking as you call it is not an arbitrary decision, its using the most current information with the new QB and offense as the more relevant and likely pattern going forward rather than giving more weight to numbers with the former QB and offense that isnt being used any more.

Instinctive said:
which is why I go to a career sample (if he can do it over 260 targets why not over 150?) for most of these things and adjust a little based on circumstance vs the career. Because 15% on 66 targets could certainly scale down to 6.5% on 150.
I think it's great to use career numbers for efficiency stats such as yards per target or catch rate, but these numbers are affected by the QB play and supporting cast of the offense as well as the scheme.

Comparing data from multiple seasons to the data from last season is not in alignment. He didnt have 260 targets in one season.

Instinctive said:
This season is probably the best QB play he's ever had, the oldest Allen has ever been, etc. Right?
Williams is a year older as well and he has not been better than Allen nor do I think he ever will be.

 
in PPR....who'd you rather draft and why?

Williams or Locket or Dionte Johnson or Thielen?
For me it's Lockett for sure.

I like Thielen but the combination of his age and his targets trending down would have me worried. 

I don't dislike Johnson but I'm not sure Big Ben holds up for another season and even if he does... how often does he throw beyond 10 yards these days? Not a big fan of what happens if Ben can't make it through the season. As it stands it also wouldn't surprise me if PIT turns to the Derrick Henry model and just smash Harris against the LOS for carry after carry. Yeah, it's highly speculative but based on how Ben looked down the stretch I just don't think Tomlin will lean on him the way they have in the past.

Williams only makes sense if you think he has a big spike in TD and so far he doesn't seem to be the first guy Herbert looks to in the red zone but that could change in the new offense. High variance on his possible outcomes this season.

Lockett just seems the safest(and the most talented imo) and it's really not all that close. That's the way they are being drafted I believe, and this is one case where I agree with the herd.

 
Tyler Lockett and Diontae Johnson both have a realistic opportunity to be the #1 WR on their NFL Team. Yeah, I said it - there's a realistic chance Lockett out-stats DK Metcalf. I think Lockett is a FFWR1 for 2021. I like everything better about the Seattle situation than the Pittsburgh situation, but IMHO, those 2 are clearly ahead of Thielen and BMW. The Steelers certainly might go more run-heavy, but my gut tells me that's only going to happen if it has to, and while it might have to, it might not. Johnson, IMHO, is the most complete WR they have and as WR1 for the Steelers, he offers strong FFWR2 #'s. No matter how you slice it, the Vikings are a run-first offense, and are going to stay run-centric as long as Zimmer is involved. That alone caps Thielen's ceiling below Lockett and Johnson for me. I like him as a WR3 with upside, but he's drafting as a WR2. Mike Williams is the outlier. I want to believe in him very badly - the player, and the situation (the scheme they run, and his projected role in it are both very positive) but I need to see more, before I can buy in. That being said, I find myself drafting him in many places. No matter how much he succeeds in the offense, I don't think he surpasses Keenan Allen in any way, so, at best a WR2 finish. You certainly draft him as a WR3, maybe even 4, with upside. I think I feel comfortable generally knowing range of outcomes for Thielen. Still working on that with BMW.

 
Mike Williams caught 8-of-12 targets for 82 yards and a touchdown in the Chargers' 20-16 Week 1 win over Washington. 

Williams nearly made an incredible touchdown grab for his second of the day. Talked up this summer by LA coaches and teammates, Williams trailed only Keenan Allen in targets while Austin Ekeler didn't see a target against the Football Team. Williams looked like Justin Herbert's primary red zone target, and should see plenty of single coverage with opposing defenses focused on Allen. Williams could go stratospheric next week against a bad Cowboys coverage unit. 

 
Thoughts on MW? Good camp reports and apparently Lombardi said Williams would play the X. I didn't watch the game but his usage was very promising, although Ekeler not getting a target will prob not happen again.

 
It's only one game but I Loved what I saw in Lombardi's offense.

I think this was only the 4th time in 50+ games Williams received double digit targets. That's shocking.

His previous high water mark for a season was six targets/game (2019) but his average YPC was a league leading 20.4 (his YPC in 2018 & 2020 was 15.4 & 15.8). For whatever reason the old staff viewed Williams almost exclusively as a deep threat. In fantasy that equates to a low %, TD dependent boom-or-bust player.

I don't think 12 targets will be the norm but if last Sunday was indicative of how Lombardi is going to run the offense this season I expect big things from Williams.

 
It's only one game but I Loved what I saw in Lombardi's offense.

I think this was only the 4th time in 50+ games Williams received double digit targets. That's shocking.

His previous high water mark for a season was six targets/game (2019) but his average YPC was a league leading 20.4 (his YPC in 2018 & 2020 was 15.4 & 15.8). For whatever reason the old staff viewed Williams almost exclusively as a deep threat. In fantasy that equates to a low %, TD dependent boom-or-bust player.

I don't think 12 targets will be the norm but if last Sunday was indicative of how Lombardi is going to run the offense this season I expect big things from Williams.


Williams had 12 targets, which is a robust 25.5% target share. That would be by far his career best and would certainly imply a career season for him if he maintains that share.

As for total targets and production, observations:

  • Herbert had 47 pass attempts, was sacked 2 times, and did not scramble, so he had 49 dropbacks. The most pass attempts/game all time was 45.4 (Stafford 2012), second highest was 43.2 (Bledsoe 1994), and third highest was 42.4 (3 players, most recent Peyton 2010). I doubt Herbert will drop back 49 times per game this season, which implies a reduction in overall targets per game compared to game 1.
  • The Chargers ran 78 offensive plays. Last season, the Chargers led the NFL by averaging 70.4 plays per game. I doubt they will average 78 plays per game this season, which may imply a reduction in overall targets per game compared to game 1.
  • Ignoring the 3 kneeldowns at the end of the game, the Chargers had 49 dropbacks and 26 rushing attempts, which is a 65/35 split. OC Lombardi came from the Saints, where the splits were more balanced. If Ekeler doesn't get hurt, I doubt the Chargers will stick with 65% passing, which implies a reduction in overall targets per game compared to game 1.
 
Williams had 12 targets, which is a robust 25.5% target share. That would be by far his career best and would certainly imply a career season for him if he maintains that share.

As for total targets and production, observations:

  • Herbert had 47 pass attempts, was sacked 2 times, and did not scramble, so he had 49 dropbacks. The most pass attempts/game all time was 45.4 (Stafford 2012), second highest was 43.2 (Bledsoe 1994), and third highest was 42.4 (3 players, most recent Peyton 2010). I doubt Herbert will drop back 49 times per game this season, which implies a reduction in overall targets per game compared to game 1.
  • The Chargers ran 78 offensive plays. Last season, the Chargers led the NFL by averaging 70.4 plays per game. I doubt they will average 78 plays per game this season, which may imply a reduction in overall targets per game compared to game 1.
  • Ignoring the 3 kneeldowns at the end of the game, the Chargers had 49 dropbacks and 26 rushing attempts, which is a 65/35 split. OC Lombardi came from the Saints, where the splits were more balanced. If Ekeler doesn't get hurt, I doubt the Chargers will stick with 65% passing, which implies a reduction in overall targets per game compared to game 1.
I agree that 12 targets/game is an unrealistic expectation,  I hope it didn't seem like I was suggesting that would be the norm.

Lombardi has been with Sean Payton since 2007 (except for 2014 &  2015 when he was OC in Det) and those teams averaged about 38 passes/game.  That number dipped to 34 passes/game over the last four years coincidently, or not, with Kamara joining the team and the defense becoming much stronger.

I think it is realistic to project somewhere between 35-38 passes per game in San Diego so, yeah 12 targets/game isn't going to be a regular occurrence.

Williams is the clear #2 WR and looks like the clear #2 target in the passing game.  He got 75% of the snaps (Allen - 83%, Guyton 65%, Cook 58%). 

Ekeler will catch passes going forward, of course, but he is not a high volume runner and they were never going to slam him into the line 20 times/game in the first place.  They don't really have a back who can do that so Ekeler's targets seem just as likely to come from his running share as anything. Ekeler as the lead back is also an argument for their being a higher than anticipated # of pass attempts/game.

But more than anything; the reason I am so optimistic is that it looks like, for the first time in his career, Williams is going to be getting high quality, high % targets.  His career Y/R is 17.3, they threw him a bunch of 50:50 balls and told him to go get them. He has been used almost exclusively to clear out underneath defenders, which seems kind of crazy for a guy they invested so much draft capital in.

Against Washington Lombardi had Williams running precise routes all over the short & mid range of the field, and let him use his big body to shield defenders. They called two end zone plays for him including a beautiful isolation play that was never going anywhere but to Williams or out of the back of the end zone on the game winning TD. If he is going to be used on high % targets, particularly around the goal line then he should have a great year on 8-9 targets/game.  He should absolutely blow his redraft position out of the water.

 
https://chargerswire.usatoday.com/2021/09/15/los-angeles-chargers-mike-williams-cowboys-defense-nfl-week-2/amp/

Mike Williams is now in my lineup and may stay there. I feel very confident that this is the breakout year we've been waiting for. Shootout of the week is pretty likely against Cowboys. Hope he has "fun" out there. 

This might be tempting us to sell high if he strings together another great performance but, I don't think I sell. He had drops in Week 1 and still had a great day and they went back to him after the drops. Screams confidence.

Starting him over Kareem Hunt in flex, which shocks me even. 

 
I agree, i think this guy is top 10 this year.  This is his year.  This is the year that Allen becomes the 'reliable vet'

 
https://chargerswire.usatoday.com/2021/09/15/los-angeles-chargers-mike-williams-cowboys-defense-nfl-week-2/amp/

Mike Williams is now in my lineup and may stay there. I feel very confident that this is the breakout year we've been waiting for. Shootout of the week is pretty likely against Cowboys. Hope he has "fun" out there. 

This might be tempting us to sell high if he strings together another great performance but, I don't think I sell. He had drops in Week 1 and still had a great day and they went back to him after the drops. Screams confidence.

Starting him over Kareem Hunt in flex, which shocks me even. 
I agree and definitely don't sell. I got him as my #5 we in redraft, and people remember draft position for too long so it would be tough to get your perceived value for him. But if you truly believe in him, and I do, then I would put other WRs that had higher draft value on the trade block and slide Williams into a #2WR starting spot.

I agree, i think this guy is top 10 this year.  This is his year.  This is the year that Allen becomes the 'reliable vet'
Top 10 seems optimistic, but after last week it sure looked maybe, possibly attainable. For me he is a lock as a WR2 with upside.

 
I agree and definitely don't sell. I got him as my #5 we in redraft, and people remember draft position for too long so it would be tough to get your perceived value for him. But if you truly believe in him, and I do, then I would put other WRs that had higher draft value on the trade block and slide Williams into a #2WR starting spot.

Top 10 seems optimistic, but after last week it sure looked maybe, possibly attainable. For me he is a lock as a WR2 with upside.


I just think the chargers are going to throw a ton this year and Herbert loves williams in the end zone

If he can stay healthy I think the top 10 is achievable

 
For example, we combine WR & TE and I took Claypool, Kyle Pitts & OBJ ahead of Williams.

I don't think anyone wants OBJ but I plan to try and dish Claypool after his first big game. Maybe the same for Pitts. Both have the shiny and name recognition factor that have worn off Williams. But I think Williams outproduces both by a wide margin.

 
I just think the chargers are going to throw a ton this year and Herbert loves williams in the end zone

If he can stay healthy I think the top 10 is achievable
I absolutely think it's achievable, but I am not 100% the Chargers will throw more than maybe 38 times/game.

It's a good team with a potentially strong defense, Ekeker isn't getting 20 carries/game but 15-17 combined touches seems possible and those have to come from somewhere.

I think when the dust settles, Williams gets maybe 8.5 looks/game which is good volume but will make him TD dependent to hit WR1 numbers.

Definitely possible but it's going to take some work.

 
Mike Williams caught 7-of-10 targets for 91 yards and a touchdown in the Chargers' Week 2 loss to the Cowboys.

Williams now has 22 targets in his first two games of the year. He has more targets than Keenan Allen (by one) and has been a mainstay of the passing attack, unlike previous years. The Williams breakout appears to be fully upon us by virtue of an expanded role and an offense that isn't afraid to air the ball out. Justin Herbert has 88 pass attempts through two games. Williams should have no problem repeating his gaudy target total in a shootout with the Chiefs next week. He's firmly in the WR2 conversation after two impressive weeks.

Sep 19, 2021, 8:20 PM ET

 
Traded him in dynasty this off-season/ pretty upset so far. Still think the shoes gonna drop- this is pretty devante Parker esque 

 
He's always flashed this talent. He hasn't yet had the opportunity or durability. Former is here, latter we shall see.

 
I have him projected for 150 targets, leading to 90/1391/10. Which assumes health. But still - the upside is incredible in this offense. He's a late dart throw - why not throw it?


ETA: classic "look at me and let's call victory way too soon and jinx it post"

Three games in (still haven't adjusted for 17 games, sorry)

22 receptions (pace of 117 vs my 90)

31 targets (pace of 165 vs my 150)

295 yards (1573 pace vs my 1391)

4 TDs (21 pace vs my 10)

24.6% target share (I believe I projected 25%)

Now, obviously the pace he's on is unsustainable. I don't think 2021 Herbert to Williams is a more modern 2007 Brady to Moss. But with a lot of production banked, A) that projection starts to look pretty reasonable and B) the point of it, which was "draft Mike Williams a couple rounds before ADP and reap the profits" also looking solid.

 
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Mike Williams caught 7-of-9 targets for 122 yards and two touchdowns in the Chargers' Week 3 win over the Chiefs. 

Williams stayed absolutely scorching in what was amazingly just the fifth 100-yard game of his five-year career. His scores went for 20 and four yards, with each giving the Chargers second half leads. They would not relinquish the second. For the 20-yarder, Williams separated from Mike Hughes and caught a bullet Justin Herbert had little time to unload. For the game-winner, Williams again got the better of Hughes. Sitting in the Chargers' highly-profitable "X" receiver spot, Williams is up to 22/295/4 through three games. That is WR1 production. The Raiders are a WR1 matchup for Week 4. 

 
Yea, barring injury, I believe he is a legit WR1 ROS. Its all clicked and I'm convinced it isn't a fluke. Targets + Talent + Healthy = Must Start Status going forward. 

I'm trying to buy him in another league that I didn't get to draft him in and see if the owner thinks its a fluke. If you can Buy High where the person thinks he is just a WR2 (like I've heard some talking heads on FF podcasts have said) then you might be able to still get good value in the trade still. 

'Its the new reality', as Sig would say about these types of adjustments.. 

 
We think this is continuing, right? Like top 10 WR ROS good?
Top 10 is tough to predict for guys like DeAndre Hopkins let alone Mike Williams but I personally don't think this is a fluke.

Yea, barring injury, I believe he is a legit WR1 ROS. Its all clicked and I'm convinced it isn't a fluke. Targets + Talent + Healthy = Must Start Status going forward. 

I'm trying to buy him in another league that I didn't get to draft him in and see if the owner thinks its a fluke. If you can Buy High where the person thinks he is just a WR2 (like I've heard some talking heads on FF podcasts have said) then you might be able to still get good value in the trade still. 

'Its the new reality', as Sig would say about these types of adjustments.. 
Good luck.  I am not sure what it would take to pry him away from me.  He's the type of player that allows you to trade guys underperforming guys with more name value, draft capital for more than they are worth.

 
Yea, barring injury, I believe he is a legit WR1 ROS. Its all clicked and I'm convinced it isn't a fluke. Targets + Talent + Healthy = Must Start Status going forward. 

I'm trying to buy him in another league that I didn't get to draft him in and see if the owner thinks its a fluke. If you can Buy High where the person thinks he is just a WR2 (like I've heard some talking heads on FF podcasts have said) then you might be able to still get good value in the trade still. 

'Its the new reality', as Sig would say about these types of adjustments.. 
What are you looking to trade to acquire him? 

 
ETA: classic "look at me and let's call victory way too soon and jinx it post"

Three games in (still haven't adjusted for 17 games, sorry)

22 receptions (pace of 117 vs my 90)

31 targets (pace of 165 vs my 150)

295 yards (1573 pace vs my 1391)

4 TDs (21 pace vs my 10)

24.6% target share (I believe I projected 25%)

Now, obviously the pace he's on is unsustainable. I don't think 2021 Herbert to Williams is a more modern 2007 Brady to Moss. But with a lot of production banked, A) that projection starts to look pretty reasonable and B) the point of it, which was "draft Mike Williams a couple rounds before ADP and reap the profits" also looking solid.
Nice call!

 
What are you looking to trade to acquire him? 
I'm about to try Amari Cooper for him. See if name value holds. I think unfortunately that Cooper's rough weeks 2 and 3 are going to prevent it from being possible. Well...in the one league I don't own him. Since I'm the owner in all my others HAHA.

 
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I'm about to try Amari Cooper for him. See if name value holds. I think unfortunately that Cooper's rough weeks 2 and 3 are going to prevent it from being possible. Well...in the one league I don't own him. Since I'm the owner in all my others HAHA.
Nice, I was looking at Calvin Ridley hoping I could get Williams + a flex level RB. I was also looking at Waller for a similar offer (weird keeper league where I have Kelce and there are several flex spots). 

 
I'm about to try Amari Cooper for him. See if name value holds. I think unfortunately that Cooper's rough weeks 2 and 3 are going to prevent it from being possible. Well...in the one league I don't own him. Since I'm the owner in all my others HAHA.
Always liked Amari but I wouldn't take him for Williams right now.  His injury history is as bad as Williams (maybe worse) and he is pretty streaky even if his end of year numbers (adjusted per game) are always pretty shiny.

 

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