He's a terrific, young player but I think people paying the price to get him are setting themselves up for relative disappointment (because the hype is SO over the top that someone taking him top 10 pick will somehow feel cheated if he "only" has 1200/11 this year or something).
The areas that lead me to think this:
Every rookie who has ever splashed big in their rookie year with 1,000+, etc who has followed it up with an "as good or better" performance the next year has A)avoided injury and B)increased their targets the following year.
I don't like to predict injuries so will just leave it as mentioned in case there are people who ARE concerned about the hamstrings.
On the targets, however, OBJ had 130 which was quite high. Eli Manning attempted 601 passes, which was already top 5-6 in the league. The league leader was Drew Brees with 659 or so. So, an already very high amount has to be increased even further, into the range of overall league-leading territory. Is that likely for the Giants?
Combined with that is the fact that Victor Cruz returns and Randle seems to be improving. McAdoo's system is typically one of spreading the ball around. How will that affect things? Does the return of a healthy running game skim the passing numbers back also?
Some other numbers that look daunting/telling:
During the last month of the season, OBJ averaged 16 targets a game. That is an incredibly inflating number. When I think of guys who seemingly are targeted every snap of the game due to their large volume (like Antonio Brown) and see that Brown's targets are in the 11/targets per game range, the 16 looks even more suspect. It very easily explains why we all have this recent memory of greatness-why we think he was doing it all on every single play--because he was, but how realistic is it that any player's norm becomes this type of use?
With the type of volume that OBJ had, it is likely that any player would look great in fantasy. But what happens when the volume isn't there? There was only one game in which OBJ exceeded 100 yards receiving on less that 11 targets. That's may not be a negative because Julio, Antonio, And Demaryius only did it a few times themselves (partly because they only played in 1-2 games where they were targeted less than 10 times so there were few opportunities to do it), but it does illustrate that the BIG games went hand-in-hand with the unadulterated peppering of targets. Again, averaged 16 targets a game for a month. That is hard to believe it could continue to support the numbers resulted.
The Giants averaged 23.8 points per game last year, which is right in the middle of the league averages (a bit above). However, in 4 of the final 6 games they played last year, they found themselves in games were the two teams combined for 60+ points. They went 3-3 in those games and lost 2 of those games to the top two teams in their division and one to the Jaguars. In real life, this is not what the Giants want to do because it does not fit their team objectives to get into shootouts with the Cowboys and Eagles, etc, and lose games.
To me, he's a great, young player who will be hard to justify the price for in auctions and dynasty startups. In redraft, sure, nobody is going to fault the guy that prefers him over Calvin or Dez or the three guys that were already mentioned, but for the price, it is likely that you could get better value.