WR performances in 2007 (1 Viewer)

[Kitrick Taylor]

Took a number of the top WRs and put together their median scores from the 2007 season. The median provides you with the number that 50% of the time the player will score more than, and 50% of the time less than.

To me it is a much better representation of what you are actually getting out of your player, as year end totals can often be greatly skewed by a big performance or two.

Scoring system used.

1 pt for 10 yards receiving/rushing combined

6 pts for all Tds.

(If significant number of games missed it is noted)

1. Randy Moss 21

2. Andre Johnson 15 (9 games)

3. Greg Jennings 14 (13 games)

4. Terrell Owens 13

5. Braylon Edwards 12

6. Marques Colston 11.5

7. Reggie Wayne 11

8. TJ Houshmandzadeh 10.5

9. Plaxico Burress 10

10. Santonio Holmes 9.5 (14 games counting the 0 pt debacle where he was supposed to play. Bump him up 1 pt if you were the one guy that got him out in time.)

11. Wes Welker 9

11. Torry Holt 9

11. Larry Fitzgerald 9

14. Brandon Marshall 8.5

14. Anquan Boldin 8.5 (12 games)

16. Chad Johnson 7.5

17. Dwayne Bowe 7

18. Steve Smith 6

I just want to point out these are the only 18 guys I ran the numbers for. There are certainly some other WRs that would fit in to the top 18 that I haven't considered here. I just don't have the time to put together the complete list.

I do think it is striking the disparity that we see between some of these highly rated WRs. Its pretty common knowledge that Steve Smith had a terrible year. Its also common knowledge that Chad Johnson is inconsistent in getting to his gaudy numbers. I think the median does a great job of showing just that, as his score is only 1.5 more than Steve Smith.

 

[Kitrick Taylor]

Thought I would bump this on a day where there aren't 31 posts on the front page about the Superbowl, plus I finished the list.

Without further ado the median scores in 2007:

1. Randy Moss 21

2. Andre Johnson 15 (9 games played)

3. Greg Jennings 14 (13 games played)

4. Terrell Owens 13

5. Braylon Edwards 12

6. Marques Colston 11.5

7. Reggie Wayne 11

8. TJ Houshmandzadeh 10.5

T9. Plaxico Burress 10

T9. Roddy White 10 (14 games played)

11. Santonio Holmes 9.5 (14 games counting the 0 pt debacle where he was supposed to play. Bump him up 1 pt if you were the one guy that got him out in time.)

T12. Wes Welker 9

T12. Larry Fitzgerald 9

T12. Torry Holt 9

15. Brandon Marshall 8.5

15. Anquan Boldin 8.5 (12 games played)

15. Chris Chambers 8.5

15. Joey Galloway 8.5 (13 games played)

T19. Bobby Engram 8

T19. Hines Ward 8 (13 games played)

T19. Jerrico Cotchery 8 (13 games played)

T22. Derrick Mason 7.5

T22. Chad Johnson 7.5

24. Dwayne Bowe 7

T25. Steve Smith 6

T25. Donald Driver 6

T25. Kevin Curtis 6

IMO the median is probably more important that a guys average score, yet nobody bothers looking at it.

 

[Rounders]

Thanks for doing the leg work on this one. I think that the median score is interesting to look, but I'm curious to see how you would apply these numbers to future rankings/projections? Do you think that because Jennings median score is 14, that he's a top 5 WR next year? Just curious.

 

[Kitrick Taylor]

Thanks for doing the leg work on this one. I think that the median score is interesting to look, but I'm curious to see how you would apply these numbers to future rankings/projections? Do you think that because Jennings median score is 14, that he's a top 5 WR next year? Just curious.

I don't think that Jennings is a top 5 prospect going into next season. However, what I think this does show is he was much more consistent in producing than guys that finished ahead of him in yearly totals like Chad Johnson or Larry Fitzgerald. To me the lesson to be learned here is you want to match up guys with a high median score as well as a high year end total. For example here's the year end totals of three top WRs.Chad Johnson: 1440/8Larry Fitzgerald: 1412/10Brandon Marshall: 1325/7Those are huge numbers, and those guys are good WRs. That led them to finish 5th, 6th and 9th at the end of the year, respectively. However their median scores put them T22, T12, and 15th respectively. To me that means when my pick in round 2/3 comes up next year, I'll be favoring guys like Wayne, Edwards, T.O, and Colston based on his finish, over those three. 2008 will be a new year, but the #1 problem with WRs every year is consistency. I'd say when picking from guys who are close in rankings, pick the guy with a better consistency history.

 

[Jersey35]

Great information here. I'd never considered median scores, but it makes a lot of sense to use as a tool to differentiate between two similar ranked players.

Bravo!

 

[HULLOBUDMAN]

I'll be the greedy one. Any chance you have this for PPR?

 

[Kitrick Taylor]

I'll be the greedy one. Any chance you have this for PPR?

I don't play in ppr. 1.5 hour project to get these numbers with stats I have in front of me. Don't have ppr numbers or the time, sorry.

 

[SSOG]

Median is nice and far easier to do, but in terms of showing consistency, nothing beats standard deviation. For instance, who was more consistant, someone who scored 8, 8, 8, 8, 8, or someone who scored 20, 20, 9, 1, 1? Median would favor the second guy, but the first was as money as they come.

The guy in particular who I am thinking of is Brandon Marshall. 8 of his 16 games fell between 6.7 points and 8.3 points. That's half of his games in a 1.6 point range, which is absurd. He didn't have a single game that fell below that range, either, which is even more absurd. His median, however, ranks significantly below many other WRs who were dramatically worse in their 7 worst games... but marginally better in their 8th worst game.

No WR in the NFL was as consistent as Marshall was this year. Only 3 times all season did he finish with fewer than 65 yards... and in all three cases, he grabbed a TD to make up for it. His three worst games of the season were 6/67, 7/72, and 3/74. To compare, in his three worst games, Randy Moss (the guy with the highest median in the NFL this year) put up 1/16, 1/18, and 5/43. Greg Jennings (#3 on the list) put up 1/14, 3/20, and 3/42. Terrell Owens (#5) had 3/21, 2/25, and 3/33. Which of these guys was really most consistent?

 

[dominus]

Thanks for doing the leg work on this one. I think that the median score is interesting to look, but I'm curious to see how you would apply these numbers to future rankings/projections? Do you think that because Jennings median score is 14, that he's a top 5 WR next year? Just curious.

I think if Favre returns, yeah Jennings will probably be top 5. He's clearly replaced Driver as the #1 out there... GB is young overall and only going to improve. They have a lot of talent at RB now, and Jennings is going to be soooooooo dangerous on the play action pass. If he's not top 5 next year, I really don't see him falling any lower than 7. I think Randy Moss will drop down a few notches, now that every team the Pats play will copy the Giants gameplan. Also, can you expect him to repeat a record setting year? I see TO, Braylon, Andre Johnson, and Colston at the top, with Wayne and Housh dropping. Maybe Plax improves, who knows. Even though he'll draw more double coverage, his height is deadly in the red zone.

 

[dudaman]

Took a number of the top WRs and put together their median scores from the 2007 season. The median provides you with the number that 50% of the time the player will score more than, and 50% of the time less than. To me it is a much better representation of what you are actually getting out of your player, as year end totals can often be greatly skewed by a big performance or two. 14. Anquan Boldin 8.5 (12 games)

Boldin went 27/343/4 in two games. He is the exception to the rule in this thread. He was horribly inconsistent - about 18% over the median, 82% under, based upon a 12 game season.

 

[Keys Myaths]

The problem here is that we've studied "consistency" in WRs before. I wish I had it bookmarked, but the conclusion was that 'consistency', as a rule, doesn't hold true from year to year. A receiver who is massively inconsistent one year has just as good of a chance to be consistent the next year as someone who was consistent the year before.

 

[FantasyTrader]

The problem here is that we've studied "consistency" in WRs before. I wish I had it bookmarked, but the conclusion was that 'consistency', as a rule, doesn't hold true from year to year. A receiver who is massively inconsistent one year has just as good of a chance to be consistent the next year as someone who was consistent the year before.

I'd really like to read that thread if you find it.

 

[H.K.]

Thanks for doing the leg work on this one. I think that the median score is interesting to look, but I'm curious to see how you would apply these numbers to future rankings/projections? Do you think that because Jennings median score is 14, that he's a top 5 WR next year? Just curious.

I think if Favre returns, yeah Jennings will probably be top 5. He's clearly replaced Driver as the #1 out there... GB is young overall and only going to improve. They have a lot of talent at RB now, and Jennings is going to be soooooooo dangerous on the play action pass. If he's not top 5 next year, I really don't see him falling any lower than 7.

Targets per game:

Driver 8.1

Jennings 6.5

Jones 5.0

Jennings is closer to being WR3 than he is WR1.

 

[dominus]

Thanks for doing the leg work on this one. I think that the median score is interesting to look, but I'm curious to see how you would apply these numbers to future rankings/projections? Do you think that because Jennings median score is 14, that he's a top 5 WR next year? Just curious.

I think if Favre returns, yeah Jennings will probably be top 5. He's clearly replaced Driver as the #1 out there... GB is young overall and only going to improve. They have a lot of talent at RB now, and Jennings is going to be soooooooo dangerous on the play action pass. If he's not top 5 next year, I really don't see him falling any lower than 7.

Targets per game:

Driver 8.1

Jennings 6.5

Jones 5.0

Jennings is closer to being WR3 than he is WR1.

OK - got me there. But there is something to say about Jennings 12 TDs to Drivers 2.

 

[H.K.]

Thanks for doing the leg work on this one. I think that the median score is interesting to look, but I'm curious to see how you would apply these numbers to future rankings/projections? Do you think that because Jennings median score is 14, that he's a top 5 WR next year? Just curious.

I think if Favre returns, yeah Jennings will probably be top 5. He's clearly replaced Driver as the #1 out there... GB is young overall and only going to improve. They have a lot of talent at RB now, and Jennings is going to be soooooooo dangerous on the play action pass. If he's not top 5 next year, I really don't see him falling any lower than 7.

Targets per game:

Driver 8.1

Jennings 6.5

Jones 5.0

Jennings is closer to being WR3 than he is WR1.

OK - got me there. But there is something to say about Jennings 12 TDs to Drivers 2.

Are seriously banking on Jennings scoring 10 more TD's than Driver again this season, even though he gets fewer passes thrown his way?eta: Red zone targets

Driver 17 for 2 TD's

Jones 11 for 0 TD's

Jennings 11 for 6 TD's

 

[Yitbos69]

Median is nice and far easier to do, but in terms of showing consistency, nothing beats standard deviation. For instance, who was more consistant, someone who scored 8, 8, 8, 8, 8, or someone who scored 20, 20, 9, 1, 1? Median would favor the second guy, but the first was as money as they come.The guy in particular who I am thinking of is Brandon Marshall. 8 of his 16 games fell between 6.7 points and 8.3 points. That's half of his games in a 1.6 point range, which is absurd. He didn't have a single game that fell below that range, either, which is even more absurd. His median, however, ranks significantly below many other WRs who were dramatically worse in their 7 worst games... but marginally better in their 8th worst game.No WR in the NFL was as consistent as Marshall was this year. Only 3 times all season did he finish with fewer than 65 yards... and in all three cases, he grabbed a TD to make up for it. His three worst games of the season were 6/67, 7/72, and 3/74. To compare, in his three worst games, Randy Moss (the guy with the highest median in the NFL this year) put up 1/16, 1/18, and 5/43. Greg Jennings (#3 on the list) put up 1/14, 3/20, and 3/42. Terrell Owens (#5) had 3/21, 2/25, and 3/33. Which of these guys was really most consistent?

I think this would go for Fitz also.....He had one game where he scored less than 7 points

 

[Yitbos69]

Took a number of the top WRs and put together their median scores from the 2007 season. The median provides you with the number that 50% of the time the player will score more than, and 50% of the time less than.

To me it is a much better representation of what you are actually getting out of your player, as year end totals can often be greatly skewed by a big performance or two.

Scoring system used.

1 pt for 10 yards receiving/rushing combined

6 pts for all Tds.

(If significant number of games missed it is noted)

1. Randy Moss 21

2. Andre Johnson 15 (9 games)

3. Greg Jennings 14 (13 games)

4. Terrell Owens 13

5. Braylon Edwards 12

6. Marques Colston 11.5

7. Reggie Wayne 11

8. TJ Houshmandzadeh 10.5

9. Plaxico Burress 10

10. Santonio Holmes 9.5 (14 games counting the 0 pt debacle where he was supposed to play. Bump him up 1 pt if you were the one guy that got him out in time.)

11. Wes Welker 9

11. Torry Holt 9

11. Larry Fitzgerald 9

14. Brandon Marshall 8.5

14. Anquan Boldin 8.5 (12 games)

16. Chad Johnson 7.5

17. Dwayne Bowe 7

18. Steve Smith 6

I just want to point out these are the only 18 guys I ran the numbers for. There are certainly some other WRs that would fit in to the top 18 that I haven't considered here. I just don't have the time to put together the complete list.

I do think it is striking the disparity that we see between some of these highly rated WRs. Its pretty common knowledge that Steve Smith had a terrible year. Its also common knowledge that Chad Johnson is inconsistent in getting to his gaudy numbers. I think the median does a great job of showing just that, as his score is only 1.5 more than Steve Smith.

Fitz only played in 15 games

 

[Kitrick Taylor]

Took a number of the top WRs and put together their median scores from the 2007 season. The median provides you with the number that 50% of the time the player will score more than, and 50% of the time less than.

To me it is a much better representation of what you are actually getting out of your player, as year end totals can often be greatly skewed by a big performance or two.

Scoring system used.

1 pt for 10 yards receiving/rushing combined

6 pts for all Tds.

(If significant number of games missed it is noted)

1. Randy Moss 21

2. Andre Johnson 15 (9 games)

3. Greg Jennings 14 (13 games)

4. Terrell Owens 13

5. Braylon Edwards 12

6. Marques Colston 11.5

7. Reggie Wayne 11

8. TJ Houshmandzadeh 10.5

9. Plaxico Burress 10

10. Santonio Holmes 9.5 (14 games counting the 0 pt debacle where he was supposed to play. Bump him up 1 pt if you were the one guy that got him out in time.)

11. Wes Welker 9

11. Torry Holt 9

11. Larry Fitzgerald 9

14. Brandon Marshall 8.5

14. Anquan Boldin 8.5 (12 games)

16. Chad Johnson 7.5

17. Dwayne Bowe 7

18. Steve Smith 6

I just want to point out these are the only 18 guys I ran the numbers for. There are certainly some other WRs that would fit in to the top 18 that I haven't considered here. I just don't have the time to put together the complete list.

I do think it is striking the disparity that we see between some of these highly rated WRs. Its pretty common knowledge that Steve Smith had a terrible year. Its also common knowledge that Chad Johnson is inconsistent in getting to his gaudy numbers. I think the median does a great job of showing just that, as his score is only 1.5 more than Steve Smith.

Fitz only played in 15 games

As I said in the post, a significant number of games missed will be noted. One game does not qualify as significant.Conversation is good here, and I by no means think the median is the perfect way to rank your WRs going forward. It is another tool that we can use to seperate players in similar tiers.

i.e. Reggie Wayne is far more consistent than Chad Johnson despite their year end numbers being similar. Thus Wayne>Johnson in my 2008 rankings.

 

[heidbrink]

In PPR, Mason was an incredibly consistent player last year. His median score looked like a line _________ at a high level, rather than a zigzag \/\/\/. Considering he was probably not even drafted in most leagues I think he has to be noted especially on this "consistency" and thus value. He really was the focal point of a short-pass based offense but because he did not see the goal line much he didn't rank as highly on your list.

 

[Ace Matherton]

IMO the median is probably more important that a guys average score, yet nobody bothers looking at it.

The variance is more important to me, all this tells you is the break even point which while important only tells you the player is inconsistant. Looking at the variance will tell you just how inconsistant, and how far away from the norm he usually is.Good work though, if you expand your data to incorporate more years and every data point you'll find even more interesting trends. If you go back to 02 or beyond you'll find some very interesting trends with Plax, Moss, Fitz, CJ, To, S Smith and Wayne (you'll find only 2 of them are truly consistant) and the rest on draft day are always overvalued.This also very much helps in after draft day trades, giving up that supposed top WR for one drafted later to upgrade another position when in reality you upgraded both but the other owner just does not know it yet. For him it looks like a steal, to you well you just know better.