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WR Quentin Johnston, LAC (1 Viewer)

He was bigger/stronger than the DBs he faced & made his hay on contested catches.
Honestly, for a big man who was supposed to be this large, exceptional athlete, I never thought he looked all that great physically unless he was up to full speed and running with the ball in his hands. He had a few nice moves to get space for some YAC but apart from that, meh
 
Honestly, for a big man who was supposed to be this large, exceptional athlete
Yep - again; at the next level, everyone is bigger stronger faster.

This happens to a lot of college players. In a somewhat weak WR class (that turned out to be slightly better than advertised) he stood out for his size. I think LAC saw him as a Mike Williams replacement.

I don’t think it’s gonna work out that way.
 
Lacking in the fundamentals is how I would describe him.
Watching his college film, I had the impression that he was a size/hands guy who got by on that. He was bigger/stronger than the DBs he faced & made his hay on contested catches.

It’s why that’s my least favorite college stat for a WR, because it rarely translates to the NFL.
Hmm that sounds like the opposite of what I saw.
His unique stats were that he had both a a high depth of target and really high YAC numbers, which is not common. When I watched him he could burn a DB and basket catch a deep ball often enough, but his big strength was once he had the ball in his hands. His catching form and contested catches were the areas of concern coming in.
I said it this time last yeah, but I wanted a team to use him like rookie Deebo Samuel until he developed more consistent fundamentals.
 
I just remembered one play. He dropped many, many balls.

Not exactly.

Per PFF, he had 2 drops last season. What you are presumably thinking of is contested catches. Per PFF, he caught 7 of 22 contested catches. That's not good, but failing to catch a contested catch does not equate to a drop.

Double checking with another source, PlayerProfiler shows that he had 3 drops and caught 8 of 24 contested catches. Close enough to support the point.

PlayerProfiler also shows that only 43 of his 67 targets were catchable, which is shown as #84 among WRs, so it wasn't all on Johnston.

I also posted during the season that the routes the Chargers were mostly using him on were not aligned with the routes he was successful on in college. That was possibly a factor in his disappointing season.
 
That's not good, but failing to catch a contested catch does not equate to a drop.
Fair enough.

I’ll take a mile high approach: what I saw of QJ in no way resembled an alpha or future WR1 for RL or FF.

I agree, and that is definitely a concern. But there have been plenty of NFL WRs who went on to play much better in year 2 or later than they did as a rookie.

The Chargers have had a few others, like Mike Williams, Tyrell Williams, Vincent Jackson, Anthony Miller, Wes Chandler, and Charlie Joiner. That is going back a long way for some of those, but not all, and I'm sure there have been a number of cases in recent years across the NFL, such as Adams as was mentioned.

Importantly, IMO the competency level of the coaching staff has been increased significantly. That combined with Johnston having a tough rookie year behind him and no Allen or Williams in front of him certainly creates a possibility that he can take a big step forward in 2024. I am hoping for that.

I'm not saying I would buy high on him, but I would buy low and would not sell low if I owned him.
 
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That's not good, but failing to catch a contested catch does not equate to a drop.
Fair enough.

I’ll take a mile high approach: what I saw of QJ in no way resembled an alpha or future WR1 for RL or FF.

I agree, and that is definitely a concern. But there have been plenty of NFL WRs who went on to play much better in year 2 or later than thy did as a rookie.

The Chargers have had a few others, like Mike Williams, Tyrell Williams, Vincent Jackson, Anthony Miller, Wes Chandler, and Charlie Joiner. That is going back a long way for some of those, but not all, and I'm sure there have been a number of cases in recent years across the NFL, such as Adams as was mentioned.

Importantly, IMO the competency level of the coaching staff has been increased significantly. That combined with Johnston having a tough rookie year behind him and no Allen or Williams in front of him certainly creates a possibility that he can take a big step forward in 2024. I am hoping for that.

I'm not saying I would buy high on him, but I would buy low and would not sell low if I owned him.
That’s all a fair take.

I’m not particularly interested in QJ as I didn’t like him coming out of college.

But there could certainly be a buy low opportunity if the owner is pessimistic like I am.

The challenge is that now with the departures of Williams & Allen, that window has likely closed.
 
I traded away QJ and cut my losses, but I will say this reminds me a lot of the Davante Adams discourse after year 2. 12 drops, several of them backbreaking ones, butt of jokes on fantasy MBs/Twitter, Gifs of his worst plays being shared around, Matt Harmon saying no one had ever come back from such a bad season, stuff like that.

It's bad business banking on outliers like Adams, and I am not going to do that unless it's for cheap at this point, but I thought the parallels were interesting. The one thing with QJ is based on how refined he was coming out, teams should not have been drafting him as a year 1 full time WR. It should not be surprising he struggles as a full time WR year 1 given that.
Adams did look pretty bad after his first two years. I actually picked him up from a Packers fan for an early 3rd and some TE I can't even remember before the 2016 season.
 
It's easy to write guys off after year one. Everyone wants instant gratification these days.

QJ is cheap, has draft capital, and is tethered to a good QB. I'll spin the wheel while everyone posts rookie mistakes and laughs!
Please do it in money leagues and report results at the end of the year.

For science!
 
100% HOLD if you roster him. You’re not likely going to get close to what you’d hope to get from a prospective buyer, and there is literally no better situation that you could hope for him in year 2 with BOTH of the WRs ahead of him no longer on the team (though Mike Williams could be resigned of course).

Hold, warts and all.
 
100% HOLD if you roster him. You’re not likely going to get close to what you’d hope to get from a prospective buyer, and there is literally no better situation that you could hope for him in year 2 with BOTH of the WRs ahead of him no longer on the team (though Mike Williams could be resigned of course).

Hold, warts and all.
.....or we could be having the same conversation this time next year.
 
If I were gambling on rostering a Chargers receiver from among what they currently have, it'd probably Derius Davis. I think Palmer will give you uninspiring production on a lot of reps. I think QJ may just be a washout. Davis is the only speed they have on the offensive side of the ball right now. Problem is the offensive line was so bad, they couldn't run routes down the field, so all his opportunities were in traffic 5 yards or less from the line of scrimmage. If they can put an Oline out there that gives Herbert more time, they might figure out a way to put Davis's speed to better use.

If they draft a better speed WR, then I'd be less optimistic about Davis as being more than a really good returner.
 
He was bigger/stronger than the DBs he faced & made his hay on contested catches.
Honestly, for a big man who was supposed to be this large, exceptional athlete, I never thought he looked all that great physically unless he was up to full speed and running with the ball in his hands. He had a few nice moves to get space for some YAC but apart from that, meh
Agree with both you.

My film take away: QJ got a ton of his production on hook/curl routes where he bounced off the DB and broke a big gain. He aint bouncing off grown men in the NFL. He doesn't win consistently in ways that are conducive to NFL and Fantasy success.
 
100% HOLD if you roster him. You’re not likely going to get close to what you’d hope to get from a prospective buyer, and there is literally no better situation that you could hope for him in year 2 with BOTH of the WRs ahead of him no longer on the team (though Mike Williams could be resigned of course).

Hold, warts and all.

Sell or Buy?
My reply from a few posts upthread.
 
Sell or Buy?
He has to be a buy, because you can't sell him for much, even with an obvious opening for him at this moment. I'm pretty sure you can get him cheap if you're willing to roll the dice. He's probably worth a 3rd round rookie dart throw.
 
Sell or Buy?
He has to be a buy, because you can't sell him for much, even with an obvious opening for him at this moment. I'm pretty sure you can get him cheap if you're willing to roll the dice. He's probably worth a 3rd round rookie dart throw.
Jesus... a 3rd? we give up on young players too easliy these days
You're right, but that's my guess as to what his value currently is in dynasty leagues. Once you stink, and in his case can't get open and drops, it takes more than a quick 5 minute opportunity opening shower to wash it off. You might find someone buying at a late 2nd, or in some weird cases a mid-to-early 2nd, but I would think those are outliers. That's why I said a 3rd on average, but I could be wrong. Anyone have any recent deals to post?
 
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Sell or Buy?
He has to be a buy, because you can't sell him for much, even with an obvious opening for him at this moment. I'm pretty sure you can get him cheap if you're willing to roll the dice. He's probably worth a 3rd round rookie dart throw.
Jesus... a 3rd? we give up on young players too easliy these days
You're right, but that's my guess as to what his value currently is in dynasty leagues. Once you stink, and in his case can't get open and drops, it takes more than a quick 5 minute opportunity opening shower to wash it off. You might find someone buying at a late 2nd, or in some weird cases a mid-to-early 2nd, but I would think those are outliers. That's why I said a 3rd on average, but I could be wrong. Anyone have any recent deals to post?
This is why he is a hold. I own him and would not trade him for a mid second, much less a third.
 
Agreed a 3rd seems very low and I’d hold for that. If the Chargers don’t go WR at 5, the runway is a bit more open for him and his value may rise. If the Chargers do go WR there, his value probably won’t be any lower than it is now.
 
Agreed a 3rd seems very low and I’d hold for that. If the Chargers don’t go WR at 5, the runway is a bit more open for him and his value may rise. If the Chargers do go WR there, his value probably won’t be any lower than it is now.
That sounds nice, but warts are warts. Can he all of sudden learn how to separate? I believe he had 3 drops on 38 receptions last year, but his last year in college his drop rate was alarming. Quentin Johnston had the ninth-highest drop rate (11.8%) of any NCAA WR with at least 90 targets his last season in college. Zay Flowers ranked 18th (10.3%). Only 2 WRs from 2018-2022 were drafted in round one with a 10%+ drop rate: Jalen Reagor and Rashod Bateman.
 
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Agreed a 3rd seems very low and I’d hold for that. If the Chargers don’t go WR at 5, the runway is a bit more open for him and his value may rise. If the Chargers do go WR there, his value probably won’t be any lower than it is now.
That sounds nice, but warts are warts. Can he all of sudden learn how to separate? I believe he had 3 drops on 38 receptions last year, but his last year in college his drop rate was alarming. Quentin Johnston had the ninth-highest drop rate (11.8%) of any NCAA WR with at least 90 targets his last season in college. Zay Flowers ranked 18th (10.3%). Only 2 WRs from 2018-2022 were drafted in round one with a 10%+ drop rate: Jalen Reagor and Rashod Bateman.
Agreed his metrics are bad, although some WRs have rough starts and figure it out. I don’t have much faith that he’ll be one of those guys that figure it out, but what they do in the draft will go a long way towards what the new coaching staff (a very astute one) thinks about him.
 
Agreed a 3rd seems very low and I’d hold for that. If the Chargers don’t go WR at 5, the runway is a bit more open for him and his value may rise. If the Chargers do go WR there, his value probably won’t be any lower than it is now.
That sounds nice, but warts are warts. Can he all of sudden learn how to separate? I believe he had 3 drops on 38 receptions last year, but his last year in college his drop rate was alarming. Quentin Johnston had the ninth-highest drop rate (11.8%) of any NCAA WR with at least 90 targets his last season in college. Zay Flowers ranked 18th (10.3%). Only 2 WRs from 2018-2022 were drafted in round one with a 10%+ drop rate: Jalen Reagor and Rashod Bateman.
Agreed his metrics are bad, although some WRs have rough starts and figure it out. I don’t have much faith that he’ll be one of those guys that figure it out, but what they do in the draft will go a long way towards what the new coaching staff (a very astute one) thinks about him.
It boils down to show me something. All we have to go on is what were his problems were his rookie year and college production and issues. I'm not sure how he improves his separation issues. Perhaps improve technique, but that is one issue that is probably the worst one to have IMO. As for drops, I'm not sure 3 drops in 38 receptions is that big of a deal right now, even though he had such a high drop rate his last year in college. I worry less about that than I do with his inability to get open.
 
You wouldn't sell for a 3rd, and I probably wouldn't buy at that price.

With the depth of this year's draft, there's better dart throws out there, imo
 
I traded away QJ and cut my losses, but I will say this reminds me a lot of the Davante Adams discourse after year 2. 12 drops, several of them backbreaking ones, butt of jokes on fantasy MBs/Twitter, Gifs of his worst plays being shared around, Matt Harmon saying no one had ever come back from such a bad season, stuff like that.

It's bad business banking on outliers like Adams, and I am not going to do that unless it's for cheap at this point, but I thought the parallels were interesting. The one thing with QJ is based on how refined he was coming out, teams should not have been drafting him as a year 1 full time WR. It should not be surprising he struggles as a full time WR year 1 given that.
Adams did look pretty bad after his first two years. I actually picked him up from a Packers fan for an early 3rd and some TE I can't even remember before the 2016 season.
Back In Adams rookie year I was targeting high upside guys. I missed out out on him during the draft unfortunately. But, even more unfortunately I backed out of trading my early third round pick for him because he looked so bad.

Now. We all know qj isn’t going to be the next adams. But, he’s worth taking a shot on if you can get him cheap enough. Sometimes football players aren’t very smart and need good coaching and a good qb to hit their ceiling. Qj is very athletically gifted and he has good coaching and a good qb. I’d take a chance on him if the price was right and he’d be a “throw in” target for me if I was trading with the owner.
 
I'd pay a 3rd for QJ for sure.
I'm sure most would, but the owners of Johnston probably wouldn't sell for that. The bigger question for you, is would you give a 2nd?

Absolutely not a 2nd.
I'd probably do the 3rd if it was actually offered to me.

But big no on a 2nd in THIS draft

Let's put some names to this:


I think once I am in the 20-ish area. Ja'Lynn Polk, Roman Wilson, Buky Irving, Braelon Allen.....yeah, I think I will take QJ.

No one at that point in the rookie draft will have his draft capital. They just got rid of Allen and Williams, Herbert is the QB, there's a lot to like.
 
Yeah. A 2nd is a wide range. Pick 28, give me the 1st round WR in his 2nd season with an elite QB, vast opportunity potential and almost certainly significantly improved coaching across the board. Better gamble than a 4th round RB.
 
I'd pay a 3rd for QJ for sure.
I'm sure most would, but the owners of Johnston probably wouldn't sell for that. The bigger question for you, is would you give a 2nd?

Absolutely not a 2nd.
I'd probably do the 3rd if it was actually offered to me.

But big no on a 2nd in THIS draft

Let's put some names to this:


I think once I am in the 20-ish area. Ja'Lynn Polk, Roman Wilson, Buky Irving, Braelon Allen.....yeah, I think I will take QJ.

No one at that point in the rookie draft will have his draft capital. They just got rid of Allen and Williams, Herbert is the QB, there's a lot to like.
I think you can add some other names that could be in that range in a start 1qb leagues, such as Jaylen Wright, Ladd McConkey, J J McCarthy, Michael Penix, Bo Nix, Blake Corum, Audric Estime, Javon Baker, Keon Coleman, Will Shipley, Ja'Tavion Sanders, Malichi Corely. I expect McConkey go go earlier than 2.08, but he could fall in some leagues. I expect Jayden Daniels and Drake Maye to go before 2.08 in most 1qb leagues, but that isn't a guarantee by any means. I expect Jonathan Brooks and Trey Benson to be gone before 2.08. I expect Leggett to go before 2.08, but is that a guarantee? Troy Franklin could fall, but I expect he will go before 2.08. All of this is talking about 1qb leagues. It obviously changes in SF with many more QBs going earlier and some of these players dropping more.
 
I'd pay a 3rd for QJ for sure.
I'm sure most would, but the owners of Johnston probably wouldn't sell for that. The bigger question for you, is would you give a 2nd?

Absolutely not a 2nd.
I'd probably do the 3rd if it was actually offered to me.

But big no on a 2nd in THIS draft

Let's put some names to this:


I think once I am in the 20-ish area. Ja'Lynn Polk, Roman Wilson, Buky Irving, Braelon Allen.....yeah, I think I will take QJ.

No one at that point in the rookie draft will have his draft capital. They just got rid of Allen and Williams, Herbert is the QB, there's a lot to like.
I think you can add some other names that could be in that range in a start 1qb league in some leagues, such as Jaylen Wright, Ladd McConkey, J J McCarthy, Michael Penix, Bo Nix, Blake Corum, Audric Estime, Javon Baker, Keon Coleman, Will Shipley, Ja'Tavion Sanders, Malichi Corely. I expect McConkey go go earlier than 2.08, but he could fall in some leagues. I expect Jayden Daniels and Drake Maye to go before 2.08 in most 1qb leagues, but that isn't a guarantee by any means. I expect Jonathan Brooks and Trey Benson to be gone before 2.08. I expect Leggett to go before 2.08, but is that a guarantee? Troy Franklin could fall, but I expect he will go before 2.08. All of this is talking about 1qb leagues. It obviously changes in SF with many more QBs going earlier and some of these players dropping more.
Funny, I was looking at Legette, and i was thinking this is probably like trading QJ for QJ. :lol:
 
I offered 2.06 in a 12 teamer 1 QB got instantly rejected
  • Year 2024 Draft Pick 2.06
  • Johnston, Quentin LAC WR
Sun Apr 7 9:00 a.m.
Comments:
Resp: I used a 1st round pick on him last year. He should be the #1 WR for the Chargers this year. I'm content to let him sit on my TS for another year if necessary, unless you want to give up a 1st for him.
 
I offered 2.06 in a 12 teamer 1 QB got instantly rejected
  • Year 2024 Draft Pick 2.06
  • Johnston, Quentin LAC WR
Sun Apr 7 9:00 a.m.
Comments:
Resp: I used a 1st round pick on him last year. He should be the #1 WR for the Chargers this year. I'm content to let him sit on my TS for another year if necessary, unless you want to give up a 1st for him.
Of course those who spent a 1st on him want to wait and see what happens with him, rather than take a loss. They may not be saying this at this time next year, but who knows, maybe he gains value. I suspect he won't. I personally wouldn't give a 2nd round pick for him, but that's me. I see too much that is wrong with him, as explained earlier.
 
100% HOLD if you roster him. You’re not likely going to get close to what you’d hope to get from a prospective buyer, and there is literally no better situation that you could hope for him in year 2 with BOTH of the WRs ahead of him no longer on the team (though Mike Williams could be resigned of course).

Hold, warts and all.
👆
 
Training camp/pre-season can be a lot of smoke and mirrors but this is the type of guy that if you don't hear over-the-top reviews early in camp I would cash out ASAP.
 
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