SSOG - great points all around, excellent post. My league mates have been debating talent vs opportunity the past couple weeks, and you've done a great job of illustrating why talent matters AND how to properly set expectations for that talent.
One piece that I think you've missed (or underplayed) - whether intentionally or unintentionally - is "relative acquisition cost." The cost to acquire Cobb right now (particularly if he's a 1st rd pick) is quite high vs near-term expectations for performance. Not all Cobb owners will have the same long-term perspective....I would argue that most FF GMs are very near-term focused.....so a smart GM can pass up Cobb this year, select someone else who is more likely to produce (Greg Little for example?), and then trade for Cobb later this year when his owner is disappointed by lack of production.
In other words, his "relative acquisition cost" will be lower later this year than it is today. Probably by a meaningful amount.
Just food for thought. Again, thanks for a great post.
![[scooter]](/data/avatars/m/22/22287.jpg?1659477690){kind=avatar}
More like a cross between Matt Suhey and Crash Jensen.
