WR Sammy Watkins, BAL (2 Viewers)

[GroveDiesel]

The small sample size makes that pretty meaningless IMO.

I also think it's a bad idea to start coming up with reasons to throw out results we don't like. My bet is that if you use height as a factor to divide up that group that things look not so great for Watkins.

 

[Adam Harstad]

The small sample size makes that pretty meaningless IMO.

I also think it's a bad idea to start coming up with reasons to throw out results we don't like. My bet is that if you use height as a factor to divide up that group that things look not so great for Watkins.

Yeah, with a sample that small to begin with, I wouldn't be looking for excuses to chop it further. Besides, the list doesn't need pruning to stand on its own. That's a remarkable hit rate for a process that's as much of a crapshoot as NFL talent evaluation.

 

[Carter_Can_Fly]

The small sample size makes that pretty meaningless IMO.

I also think it's a bad idea to start coming up with reasons to throw out results we don't like. My bet is that if you use height as a factor to divide up that group that things look not so great for Watkins.

Yeah, with a sample that small to begin with, I wouldn't be looking for excuses to chop it further. Besides, the list doesn't need pruning to stand on its own. That's a remarkable hit rate for a process that's as much of a crapshoot as NFL talent evaluation.

Agreed. I did not think the hit rate would actually be as good as it is.

 

[matttyl]

The small sample size makes that pretty meaningless IMO.

I also think it's a bad idea to start coming up with reasons to throw out results we don't like. My bet is that if you use height as a factor to divide up that group that things look not so great for Watkins.

Yeah, with a sample that small to begin with, I wouldn't be looking for excuses to chop it further. Besides, the list doesn't need pruning to stand on its own. That's a remarkable hit rate for a process that's as much of a crapshoot as NFL talent evaluation.

Can't we "throw out" or at least "set aside" 5-11, 195 Peter Warrick with character concerns out of the gate and 5-10, 188 Desmond Howard who was drafted as much to return kicks as he was to catch balls? At least put an asterisk by them?

 

[Adam Harstad]

The small sample size makes that pretty meaningless IMO.

I also think it's a bad idea to start coming up with reasons to throw out results we don't like. My bet is that if you use height as a factor to divide up that group that things look not so great for Watkins.

Yeah, with a sample that small to begin with, I wouldn't be looking for excuses to chop it further. Besides, the list doesn't need pruning to stand on its own. That's a remarkable hit rate for a process that's as much of a crapshoot as NFL talent evaluation.

Can't we "throw out" or at least "set aside" 5-11, 195 Peter Warrick with character concerns out of the gate and 5-10, 188 Desmond Howard who was drafted as much to return kicks as he was to catch balls? At least put an asterisk by them?

No. The only reason we want them thrown out is because we know with hindsight that the picks didn't work out. If Peter Warrick had been a 5-time All Pro, nobody would be saying right now that he shouldn't have been included in the sample.

Warrick is 2 inches shorter and 10 pounds lighter than Sammy Watkins. This isn't like Tavon Austin where we're looking at a difference of a half foot and 40 pounds.

 

[GroveDiesel]

The small sample size makes that pretty meaningless IMO.

I also think it's a bad idea to start coming up with reasons to throw out results we don't like. My bet is that if you use height as a factor to divide up that group that things look not so great for Watkins.

Yeah, with a sample that small to begin with, I wouldn't be looking for excuses to chop it further. Besides, the list doesn't need pruning to stand on its own. That's a remarkable hit rate for a process that's as much of a crapshoot as NFL talent evaluation.

Can't we "throw out" or at least "set aside" 5-11, 195 Peter Warrick with character concerns out of the gate and 5-10, 188 Desmond Howard who was drafted as much to return kicks as he was to catch balls? At least put an asterisk by them?

No way. Look, I like Watkins and as a Bills fan desperately want him to succeed, but you can't just cherry pick the data.

Are you going to throw out Larry Fitzerald, Calvin Johnson, Keyshawn Johnson and Andre Johnson because they're significantly taller than Watkins? If not, then you can't throw out guys because they are a couple of inches shorter than Watkins.

And are we going to throw out Green, Calvin, Andre and Fitz because they had zero character strikes against them and Watkins was busted for pot? If you're not, then you can't toss out other guys for having character concerns.

 

[jurb26]

Does somoene have an all time list of NFL wide receivers drafted in the top 5 of the NFL draft?

Every draft in my lifetime....2014 - Sammy Watkins

2012 - Justin Blackmon

2011 - AJ Green (Julio Jones was #6)

2007 - Calvin Johnson

2005 - Braylon Edwards

2004 - Larry Fitz

2003 - Charles Rogers and Andre Johnson

2000 - Peter Warrick

1999 - Torry Holt was #6

1996 - Keyshawn Johnson

1995 - Michael Westbrook

1992 - Desmond Howard

1988 - Tim Brown was #6 with Sterling Sharpe right after him.

1984 - Irving Fryar and Kenny Jackson

Take out Blackmon, possibly Edwards, and Westbrook due to character concerns (which I don't think Watkins has, but please correct me if that's not true), and possibly take out Warrick and Howard as both are a different kind of WR (specifically smaller kick returner types if memory serves)....and you've got a very nice list here.

thanks

I also think the trend over the last decade points to more hits than misses for the top guys than before. I'm not sure if that's a change in how elite WR prospects are scouted now or if it's just dumb luck, however.

You don't think Andre Johnson was a hit? Torry Holt or Keyshawn or Tim Brown or Fryar? As I said, take out the character question marks (Blackmon, Edwards and Westbrook) which I don't think would apply to Sammy - and take out the two very undersized guys who were brought in to be kick returners as well, and you've got nearly 10 current or future hall of famers here.

Holy cherry pick, Batman!

 

[T with T]

Yes wrs taken in the top 5 usually pan out... Watkins is a stud no matter if people want to admit it or not, who cares if he isn't as big as Andre he does a lot of things better then most wrs and a lot better. He is fluid, great hands, route running, deep speed, acceleration, ability to catch and tuck/run and get up to top gear in a hurry. He is an all around world class wr and athlete..

 

[matuski]

Does somoene have an all time list of NFL wide receivers drafted in the top 5 of the NFL draft?

Every draft in my lifetime....2014 - Sammy Watkins

2012 - Justin Blackmon

2011 - AJ Green (Julio Jones was #6)

2007 - Calvin Johnson

2005 - Braylon Edwards

2004 - Larry Fitz

2003 - Charles Rogers and Andre Johnson

2000 - Peter Warrick

1999 - Torry Holt was #6

1996 - Keyshawn Johnson

1995 - Michael Westbrook

1992 - Desmond Howard

1988 - Tim Brown was #6 with Sterling Sharpe right after him.

1984 - Irving Fryar and Kenny Jackson

Take out Blackmon, possibly Edwards, and Westbrook due to character concerns (which I don't think Watkins has, but please correct me if that's not true), and possibly take out Warrick and Howard as both are a different kind of WR (specifically smaller kick returner types if memory serves)....and you've got a very nice list here.

thanks

I also think the trend over the last decade points to more hits than misses for the top guys than before. I'm not sure if that's a change in how elite WR prospects are scouted now or if it's just dumb luck, however.

You don't think Andre Johnson was a hit? Torry Holt or Keyshawn or Tim Brown or Fryar? As I said, take out the character question marks (Blackmon, Edwards and Westbrook) which I don't think would apply to Sammy - and take out the two very undersized guys who were brought in to be kick returners as well, and you've got nearly 10 current or future hall of famers here.

Holy cherry pick, Batman!

If you take out all the players on this list except the great ones, you've got a very nice list here.

I expect Sammy to fall somewhere outside the top 6 on this list looking back.

 

[Faust]

Bills rookie minicamp observations: Sunday

by Joe Buscaglia

Excerpt:

WR Sammy Watkins

- The talent is very obvious in a practice setting like a rookie minicamp. The ease in his movements and his ability to accelerate to full speed after coming to a stop is a rare asset to have. In the way he moves and the way he catches the ball, he just makes it look easy against the level of competition he was facing.

 

[matttyl]

Any guesses on his rookie year stat line? 1,000+ receiving out of the question?

 

[Faust]

ESPN analyst: Watkins among the elite WR prospects in the past decade

Aaron Brenner

Excerpt:

CLEMSON - The list goes Calvin Johson, then A.J. Green, then Julio Jones on the same line with Sammy Watkins.

That's the 10-year pecking order ESPN NFL Draft analyst Todd McShay shared on Monday's conference call with reporters following up on last weekend's draft, which helps to justify the Bills trading away first- and fourth-round selections in next year's draft to secure the former Clemson superstar wide receiver.


"They did give up a lot," McShay said. "But I think the Bills realize they've got a young quarterback in EJ Manuel who needs weapons around him."

McShay identified Watkins as one of this year's four "elite" players available to be picked, along with defensive end Jadeveon Clowney, linebacker Khalil Mack and offensive lineman Greg Robinson.

Being the only offensive skill player in the group, the Bills felt they couldn't wait to move up from No. 9 to No. 4, trading assets to Cleveland for the rights to Watkins.

"He can be that kind of playmaker," McShay said. "I don't know that I would have made the trade, I know it's giving up a lot, but it's very clear there is urgency to put playmakers around EJ Manuel."

A popular opinion among writers and prognosticators since Watkins' Thursday selection is that he's a good player, but might not be worth the price tag. That's the pressure bound upon the Tigers' two-time first-team All-American.

If McShay's correct in how he rates Watkins among the best wide receivers prospects he's graded in the past decade, Watkins might prove he was.

"Obviously, Calvin Johnson's a high bar - but if he can be a Julio Jones or A.J. Green, that kind of playmaker," McShay said, "then I think Buffalo will look back on it and believe he's worth every bit they had to give up to go get him."

 

[GroveDiesel]

There's obviously a lot of talk about Manuel and whether or not he can be a competent QB. And that's absolutely fair and deserved as he has major question marks still.

But just as big of a question mark, IMO, is whether or not Hackett can best utilize the weapons on offense. And after last year, I have significant doubts. Over and over he pounded Spiller into the line instead of doing what he could to get him in space. We saw way too much TJ Graham and way too little Goodwin. And it was either PFF or BR that ran an article breaking down what made Stevie Johnson so good and pointed out that Hackett had Johnson running almost none of the routes that he was most successful with the previous 3 years.

Last year I saw an offensive coordinator that seemed to have a limited grasp of an NFL offense and had no idea how to use his players. He had a singular game plan for the entire season and refused to deviate from it even though his personnel didn't match his design.

I'm sure that having a rookie QB limited the playbook and that is somewhat to blame, but there was more to it than that. Never seeing Spiller lined up wide, put in motion out wide or running wheel routes was insanity.

 

[msommer]

Wasn't that the beef with Hackett last time around at OC (NYG?) as well? Unimaginative, dink and dunk?

ETA: I may be thinking about Paul Hackett

 

[Winning IS Everything]

Any guesses on his rookie year stat line? 1,000+ receiving out of the question?

I am not sure he will reach 1000, but it could happen.

 

[Carter_Can_Fly]

Just to add to the reason I believe Watkins will be great. A lot of players say it and hope to be great, but they are now willing to do what it is to reach their potential. Here are some questions and answer with Watkins that show the type of player the Bills drafted. He wants to be coached up, he is addressing the NFL level is different than college and he can't come in just dominate at this level without working on his craft. I love that he is treating it as a job and not taking it for granted. He is not a diva WR. He is a hard working talented kid.

Q: Was your first weekend in the NFL what you expected?
A: It was definitely what I expected. Come out here and work hard with the guys and get my footsteps in the right routes and right yardage. That’s been the hardest thing, just the transition from college to the pros and getting the right coaching. So far I see myself 10 times better just on my route running, my mechanics and working on the little things.

Q: Coach Marrone said you were in here at 6:45 am on your own running routes. What time did you get here and why did you come in so early?
A: For me, I think I need to work on my routes more than anything. I have the speed and size and the ability, now it’s just down to the details and the little things. Initially the cornerbacks are great, they know the details of your route and you have to be crisp and right on everything you do and have to make everything look the same. I woke up this morning and that’s what I was trying to do. Stay straight, keep my head up and work on my routes and my breaking points.

Q: Did you figure there would be that difference from college to pros in terms of the precisions of the routes?
A: Most definitely. I know this game is totally different from college. It’s still the same sport, but now guys are ten times smarter. Now this is a job so you’re going to do anything in your power to get better at your steps or your speed. Just getting the right rest and eating right, so now it’s the time to work on the little things like break points and your eyes and working on the fluidity of your routes.

 

[Winning IS Everything]

I also read today that CJ Spiller is taking him under his wing to help with the transition to the pros........... That is a good thing in my opinion.

 

[cstu]

Any guesses on his rookie year stat line? 1,000+ receiving out of the question?

I am not sure he will reach 1000, but it could happen.

If Steve Johnson can do it, Watkins can do it.

 

[matttyl]

Any guesses on his rookie year stat line? 1,000+ receiving out of the question?

I am not sure he will reach 1000, but it could happen.

If Steve Johnson can do it, Watkins can do it.

Steve never did it with Manuel. That sounds dirty....

 

[Carter_Can_Fly]

I already stated this, but even with sub par QB play Watkins will be fine. All of these guys finished top 20 and some even top 10 with average to below average QB play last year: Andre Johnson, Josh Gordon, Vincent Jackson, Blackmon (points per game), Garcon. The targets will be there and he is good enough to produce decent fantasy points with sub par QB play. It may not happen as much year 1 on a consistent level, but it will sooner than later.

 

[Andrew74]

Just to add to the reason I believe Watkins will be great. A lot of players say it and hope to be great, but they are now willing to do what it is to reach their potential. Here are some questions and answer with Watkins that show the type of player the Bills drafted. He wants to be coached up, he is addressing the NFL level is different than college and he can't come in just dominate at this level without working on his craft. I love that he is treating it as a job and not taking it for granted. He is not a diva WR. He is a hard working talented kid.

Q: Was your first weekend in the NFL what you expected?

A: It was definitely what I expected. Come out here and work hard with the guys and get my footsteps in the right routes and right yardage. Thats been the hardest thing, just the transition from college to the pros and getting the right coaching. So far I see myself 10 times better just on my route running, my mechanics and working on the little things.

Q: Coach Marrone said you were in here at 6:45 am on your own running routes. What time did you get here and why did you come in so early?

A: For me, I think I need to work on my routes more than anything. I have the speed and size and the ability, now its just down to the details and the little things. Initially the cornerbacks are great, they know the details of your route and you have to be crisp and right on everything you do and have to make everything look the same. I woke up this morning and thats what I was trying to do. Stay straight, keep my head up and work on my routes and my breaking points.

Q: Did you figure there would be that difference from college to pros in terms of the precisions of the routes?

A: Most definitely. I know this game is totally different from college. Its still the same sport, but now guys are ten times smarter. Now this is a job so youre going to do anything in your power to get better at your steps or your speed. Just getting the right rest and eating right, so now its the time to work on the little things like break points and your eyes and working on the fluidity of your routes.

I like the sound of this.

 

[duaneok66]

love the guy's work ethic. Not only that, he is saying what he needs to work on, not what he is already good at doing.

I don't have Watkins rostered, but who cares - I like to cheer for guys that have very good character.

 

[Carter_Can_Fly]

love the guy's work ethic. Not only that, he is saying what he needs to work on, not what he is already good at doing.

I don't have Watkins rostered, but who cares - I like to cheer for guys that have very good character.

Good point. His bust factor is going to be really low. He is the easy 1.01 in rookie drafts imo.

 

[Winning IS Everything]

love the guy's work ethic. Not only that, he is saying what he needs to work on, not what he is already good at doing.

I don't have Watkins rostered, but who cares - I like to cheer for guys that have very good character.

Good point. His bust factor is going to be really low. He is the easy 1.01 in rookie drafts imo.

Absolutely correct. As a 1.1 owner, I already have him penciled in as the pick. Only injury would change that thought, and it would have to be a bad injury.

 

[Carter_Can_Fly]

At the end of the interview which is 9 minutes he talks about how you can throw what round you were drafted out the window. He says he has to work hard no matter what pick he was. He says he is embracing the pressure and he says he has been doing this is his whole life. He says he is learning the playbook and breaking it down from not only every route but every single step and depth. He will have the details down and he will know the playbook inside out and it will take the pressure off so he can just play. If you listen to the whole interview the kid is special. He mentions working hard and learning the details over and over again. I also find it great how he is embracing Buffalo and went and met Jim Kelly and said Buffalo community is a family. The Bills have themselves a star here.

Some fantasy relevance news at the end of the interview...He says there won't be an X,Y,Z in this offense, he is going to move around a lot in various situations and run all the routes. I think they are going to do whatever they can to get Watkins his touches from day 1. He might be fantasy relevant this year which is rare for rookie WR's

http://www.buffalobills.com/news/article-1/Sammy-Watkins-You-have-to-love-what-it-takes-to-be-great/f09c7f03-8175-4de9-86a6-36d7d6fd1f58

This is some of the questions and answer from the first couple minutes of the interview just to give you more of an idea of who Watson really is.

Q: How was your first day out there?
A: First day out, I think it went pretty good overall. I still have a lot of things to work on. I’m still in shape from two months of doing all the draft stuff and the combine stuff. I just have to keep doing what I’m doing, watching film and being coached up.

Q: You said something about shape. What was it?
A: A lot of us guys have been traveling around the world with the combine and stuff like that with the draft. You come out in shape and you need to learn quicker and faster since everything is a job now. You have to come prepared.

Q: Does it feel good to be back to football?
A: Of course. As an athlete you have to love the grind. You have to love what it takes to be great. This is what it takes, being out there every day and getting coached up and competing with the guys that you’re playing with. That’s what it is about.

Q: Why did you choose the number 14 for your jersey number?
A: It wasn’t really a big decision. I just wanted to wear 14 because it’s a nice number. I had to pick between 14 and 16 and I felt like 16 was a quarterback’s number. Fourteen fits me really good.

Q: It also happens to be the year you were drafted.
A: Of course. That’s another great thing and my birthday is on June 14th. My brother wore this number last year for Florida, so I’m wearing his number now.

Q: You went to see Jim Kelly earlier this week. What was that like for you?
A: Jim is a great guy. It was a great experience. He’s a strong guy. I see a guy that’s fighting every day. A guy that’s positive, not negative. You hear a lot of things in the media that he’s doing bad or he looks bad, but he looks great to me. When I got there he was going to leave the next day to go home. It’s going to be a great experience when I go to his football camp to help out. Hopefully he’ll be out there ready and prepared. I’ve got plenty more years to get close to him and his family.

Q: Did you make that deal to work the football camp when you met him?
A: Just having fun, joking up there when I went to see him. He mentioned the camp and I was like yeah if I’m here that’s fine I’ll do it. Anything for Jim. He represents this program the way it should be represented and I’d do anything for him.

Q: Did his nephew bring you guys together?
A: Me and Chad (Kelly) were very close at Clemson. We worked out together and bonded together while we were there. As soon as I came here he took me and I stayed a couple times at his house. First thing he was like let’s go meet my uncle. I was like that’s great. That’s the first thing I did when I got here.

Q: Did you get a sense of how much Jim means to the community here in Buffalo?
A: He means a lot. I see that he’s everywhere around here. Everybody represents him and he represents the program well. He’s the quarterback of this franchise. He took this team and this franchise to the championship a couple of times. Even though they didn’t win it, he took them there and that’s the biggest point of being a Buffalo Bill. We haven’t been there in (over) a decade, 14 years now. That’s what he preached about. I talked to him when I was there and he just gave me a lot of wisdom and encouragement of being a Buffalo (Bill) and all the perks of being a Buffalo Bill and I can’t thank him enough.

 

[Carter_Can_Fly]

Watkins route running progress report Posted by Chris Brown on June 5, 2014 – 3:32 pm

Bills rookie receiver Sammy Watkins has made route running his top priority in the spring practices. Knowing the precision that receivers coach Rob Moore and offensive coordinator Nathaniel Hackett are demanding, Watkins is anxious to tighten everything up. Here’s his assessment of where he’s at after two weeks of OTAs and a rookie minicamp.

“I’m getting better. There are probably two or three routes that I still have to work on,” he said. “Overall, I think I’m looking similar to the older guys in the offense and I think I’m picking it up real fast.”

Watkins explained why the route running part of his job is a demanding hurdle to clear.

“You’ve got different routes than I was running in college. There are so many routes in this offense,” he said. “Most of them are similar but you got to have steps, it’s more steps now than yards. You got to get the correct steps to get your yardage. So that’s been the biggest struggle. But this week, I’ve been doing all my steps and revolutions, I know how to do them now so now I’m running my routes perfect.”

 

[Faust]

Rotoworld:

Sammy Watkins - WR - Bills

Bills OC Nathaniel Hackett said rookie WR Sammy Watkins was "a guy we've got to get the ball to a whole bunch."

It is tough not to take this with a grain of salt considering Hackett's run C.J. Spiller until the "throws up" comments last year, but the reality is Watkins is already one of the Bills most explosive weapons. They would be foolish not to get the ball to him early and often. Watkins will be a high-volume target right out of the gate and should finish as the top rookie-fantasy receiver in 2014.

Source: Buffalo News

Jun 7 - 10:28 AM

 

[Bob Magaw]

Projections on ten first round rookies (offense and defense), including Watkins, by Bucky Brooks of NFL.com.

http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap2000000356768/article/nfl-rookie-projections-sammy-watkins-johnny-manziel-more

Sammy Watkins, WR, Buffalo BillsBest-case scenario: The Bills are counting on Watkins to add juice to the passing game as the No. 1 option on the perimeter. The 6-foot-1, 205-pound speedster is a dynamic catch-and-run playmaker who also excels as a deep threat on the outside. With the Bills increasing the pace and tempo of their attack this season, Watkins will get plenty of touches on quick throws, bubble screens and deep shots designed to take advantage of a fatigued defense. With an offense looking for more explosive plays in the passing game, Buffalo should work to get Watkins at least six to eight touches per game.

Worst-case scenario: Rookie receivers typically struggle with the NFL transition, thanks to the complexities of the pro passing game. Watkins could encounter some growing pains, considering that he played in a spread offense at Clemson that didn't feature a lot of route conversions based on coverage. (Thus, he might have a tough time identifying sight adjustments and hot routes in the Bills' passing game.) Additionally, Watkins' lack of experience running pro-style routes could prevent him from making an immediate impact as a No. 1 receiver.

Projection: 65 catches, 950 receiving yards, seven touchdowns.

 

[ShaHBucks]

Does somoene have an all time list of NFL wide receivers drafted in the top 5 of the NFL draft?

Every draft in my lifetime....2014 - Sammy Watkins

2012 - Justin Blackmon

2011 - AJ Green (Julio Jones was #6)

2007 - Calvin Johnson

2005 - Braylon Edwards

2004 - Larry Fitz

2003 - Charles Rogers and Andre Johnson

2000 - Peter Warrick

1999 - Torry Holt was #6

1996 - Keyshawn Johnson

1995 - Michael Westbrook

1992 - Desmond Howard

1988 - Tim Brown was #6 with Sterling Sharpe right after him.

1984 - Irving Fryar and Kenny Jackson

Take out Blackmon, possibly Edwards, and Westbrook due to character concerns (which I don't think Watkins has, but please correct me if that's not true), and possibly take out Warrick and Howard as both are a different kind of WR (specifically smaller kick returner types if memory serves)....and you've got a very nice list here.

thanks

I also think the trend over the last decade points to more hits than misses for the top guys than before. I'm not sure if that's a change in how elite WR prospects are scouted now or if it's just dumb luck, however.

You don't think Andre Johnson was a hit? Torry Holt or Keyshawn or Tim Brown or Fryar? As I said, take out the character question marks (Blackmon, Edwards and Westbrook) which I don't think would apply to Sammy - and take out the two very undersized guys who were brought in to be kick returners as well, and you've got nearly 10 current or future hall of famers here.

http://espn.go.com/college-football/story/_/id/8232108/clemson-tigers-sammy-watkins-suspended-two-games-start-season

 

[GroveDiesel]

Does somoene have an all time list of NFL wide receivers drafted in the top 5 of the NFL draft?

Every draft in my lifetime....2014 - Sammy Watkins

2012 - Justin Blackmon

2011 - AJ Green (Julio Jones was #6)

2007 - Calvin Johnson

2005 - Braylon Edwards

2004 - Larry Fitz

2003 - Charles Rogers and Andre Johnson

2000 - Peter Warrick

1999 - Torry Holt was #6

1996 - Keyshawn Johnson

1995 - Michael Westbrook

1992 - Desmond Howard

1988 - Tim Brown was #6 with Sterling Sharpe right after him.

1984 - Irving Fryar and Kenny Jackson

Take out Blackmon, possibly Edwards, and Westbrook due to character concerns (which I don't think Watkins has, but please correct me if that's not true), and possibly take out Warrick and Howard as both are a different kind of WR (specifically smaller kick returner types if memory serves)....and you've got a very nice list here.

thanks

I also think the trend over the last decade points to more hits than misses for the top guys than before. I'm not sure if that's a change in how elite WR prospects are scouted now or if it's just dumb luck, however.

You don't think Andre Johnson was a hit? Torry Holt or Keyshawn or Tim Brown or Fryar? As I said, take out the character question marks (Blackmon, Edwards and Westbrook) which I don't think would apply to Sammy - and take out the two very undersized guys who were brought in to be kick returners as well, and you've got nearly 10 current or future hall of famers here.

http://espn.go.com/college-football/story/_/id/8232108/clemson-tigers-sammy-watkins-suspended-two-games-start-season

Tha5's fair and I think it was silly to throw those guys out regardless, but I am pretty convinced that Watkins really has grown up and learned from his mistakes. He seems really focused on becoming better, working hard and doing everything he can to try to become one of the best. I don't think he takes any of it for granted.

 

[valhallan]

Since I don't watch much college ball, I check out the highlights videos of nearly every rookie. I don't recall ever being as blown away by a guy as as I was for Watkins. Maybe Demaryius but no one else comes to mind. Watkins just flew off the screen and seemed to be playing with children.

 

[Faust]

@7RoundsInApril · Jun 10

Remember...comps use pre-draft info for all players - current prospects are compared only to past *prospects*. NFL careers not considered.

@7RoundsInApril · Jun 10

Ranked first by tier, and then within tier. Assumes all positions have equal value.

@7RoundsInApril · Jun 10

#1 to #5: Elite Prospects with Clean Profiles

@7RoundsInApril · Jun 10

#3 Sammy Watkins: Hakeem Nicks, Pierre Garcon, Derek Hagan

 

[Grahamburn]

Will Watkins be returning kicks for the Bills? Speculation welcome.

 

[GroveDiesel]

Will Watkins be returning kicks for the Bills? Speculation welcome.

I seriously doubt it. They have quite a few guys that can return and I doubt they would risk the health of a guy they paid so much for.

 

[Faust]

Rotoworld:

The Bills' official site calls Sammy Watkins' acceleration after the catch "very rare."
It's one of the main reasons Watkins was billed as the top wideout in a loaded class. He ran 4.43 at the Combine with a 10-foot-6 broad jump, demonstrating special lower-body explosion. The Bills would do well to use Watkins on a ton of bubble screens and hitches, keeping things simple for raw E.J. Manuel. The Bills' official site says Manuel is already "naturally finding" Watkins on pass plays during OTAs, though beat writer reports haven't been as rosy.

Source: buffalobills.com

 

[Milkman]

lol he's going to bust if he can't catch. LMFAO!

 

[Skeletore Eh]

Sammy Watkins - WR - Bills
Sammy Watkins admits the chemistry between he and E.J. Manuel hasn't been 100 percent on point, yet.
"It's not fully there. I mean, we've been connecting at minicamp, and OTAs," Watkins said. "But at the same time, I could be wide open, and if he don't feel it, or if I run it a different type of way, he won't throw the ball." The two have all summer to work on it, but it's anyone's guess as to who will lead the 2014 Bills in receiving. Manuel and Robert Woods had a good connection as 2013 rookies. We may need to temper expectations for Watkins in a run-heavy offense with a quarterback that needs to take a massive step forward as a sophomore.


Source: NFL Around the League
Jun 27 - 9:45 AM

 

[FavreAndAwayAnIdiot]

Sammy Watkins - WR - Bills
Sammy Watkins admits the chemistry between he and E.J. Manuel hasn't been 100 percent on point, yet.
"It's not fully there. I mean, we've been connecting at minicamp, and OTAs," Watkins said. "But at the same time, I could be wide open, and if he don't feel it, or if I run it a different type of way, he won't throw the ball." The two have all summer to work on it, but it's anyone's guess as to who will lead the 2014 Bills in receiving. Manuel and Robert Woods had a good connection as 2013 rookies. We may need to temper expectations for Watkins in a run-heavy offense with a quarterback that needs to take a massive step forward as a sophomore.


Source: NFL Around the League
Jun 27 - 9:45 AM

BUST!

Wait.. Too early?

 

[GroveDiesel]

It's been 3 practices.

 

[matttyl]

Sammy Watkins - WR - Bills
Sammy Watkins admits the chemistry between he and E.J. Manuel hasn't been 100 percent on point, yet.
"It's not fully there. I mean, we've been connecting at minicamp, and OTAs," Watkins said. "But at the same time, I could be wide open, and if he don't feel it, or if I run it a different type of way, he won't throw the ball." The two have all summer to work on it, but it's anyone's guess as to who will lead the 2014 Bills in receiving. Manuel and Robert Woods had a good connection as 2013 rookies. We may need to temper expectations for Watkins in a run-heavy offense with a quarterback that needs to take a massive step forward as a sophomore.


Source: NFL Around the League
Jun 27 - 9:45 AM

BUST!

Wait.. Too early?

So a rookie WR and a 2nd year QB aren't connecting 100% in OTAs? Oh the humanity.....

 

[FavreAndAwayAnIdiot]

Sammy Watkins - WR - Bills
Sammy Watkins admits the chemistry between he and E.J. Manuel hasn't been 100 percent on point, yet.
"It's not fully there. I mean, we've been connecting at minicamp, and OTAs," Watkins said. "But at the same time, I could be wide open, and if he don't feel it, or if I run it a different type of way, he won't throw the ball." The two have all summer to work on it, but it's anyone's guess as to who will lead the 2014 Bills in receiving. Manuel and Robert Woods had a good connection as 2013 rookies. We may need to temper expectations for Watkins in a run-heavy offense with a quarterback that needs to take a massive step forward as a sophomore.


Source: NFL Around the League
Jun 27 - 9:45 AM

BUST!

Wait.. Too early?

So a rookie WR and a 2nd year QB aren't connecting 100% in OTAs? Oh the humanity.....

 

[Shutout]

Since I don't watch much college ball, I check out the highlights videos of nearly every rookie. I don't recall ever being as blown away by a guy as as I was for Watkins. Maybe Demaryius but no one else comes to mind. Watkins just flew off the screen and seemed to be playing with children.

This isn't meant to be argumentative or stir the pot. If you are a person who is mainly watching highlights, then I assume you are seeing some pretty spectacular plays in short segments (a highlight by definition). But what you may be describing above is you see flare for the dramatic and "style" more than you are seeing pure talent, much in the same way that a basketball fan might have seen Vince Carter's dunks versus Magic Johnson's, but make no mistake where the better talent is.

Watkins dazzles, but I think if you look at the body of collegiate work, you would be every bit as impressed with a lot of players. For me, personally, watching college, I was never in my life as impressed as what I saw Randy Moss force opponents to do. And he was great. But there are probably some Calvin Johnson, Andre Johnson, etc, watchers out there that can say the same thing.

 

[Bob Magaw]

Scouts have said he is the best WR prospect since Green and Jones (and they were since Calvin, who might have been the best ever, speaking purely as a prospect). Demaryius Thomas and Dez Bryant dropped into the 20s, and they were unable to test at the combine (Bryant's individual workouts were characterized as disappointing due to lack of conditioning). Crabtree went 1.10, and was also unable to workout. Blackmon nearly went top 5, but I didn't like him as much as Watkins at the time. Josh Gordon wasn't as good a prospect, being a second round supplemental pick. Going back further than Megatron, Andre Johnson and Larry Fitzgerald were very highly drafted prospects that I liked better at the time.

I might sort that group (what I thought at the time) as follows:

Calvin

Andre Johnson

Fitz

Green

Watkins

Jones

To me, lately, it seems like a prospect as good comes along every three years or so.

I do think he could be a top 5-10 type WR in a few years, I have conviction on his talent, though I'm aware his size doesn't fit the profile of a current top 5 WR.

 

[jurb26]

Sammy Watkins - WR - Bills

Sammy Watkins admits the chemistry between he and E.J. Manuel hasn't been 100 percent on point, yet.

"It's not fully there. I mean, we've been connecting at minicamp, and OTAs," Watkins said. "But at the same time, I could be wide open, and if he don't feel it, or if I run it a different type of way, he won't throw the ball." The two have all summer to work on it, but it's anyone's guess as to who will lead the 2014 Bills in receiving. Manuel and Robert Woods had a good connection as 2013 rookies. We may need to temper expectations for Watkins in a run-heavy offense with a quarterback that needs to take a massive step forward as a sophomore.

Source: NFL Around the League

Jun 27 - 9:45 AM

BUST!

Wait.. Too early?

So a rookie WR and a 2nd year QB aren't connecting 100% in OTAs? Oh the humanity.....

Yeah, it shouldn't be a surprise in the least. The problem is, it shouldn't be a surprise if these same problems persist most of this season as well. They are young players learning on the run. I'm a fan if Watkins but am also tempering my expectations for this year. I think 800 yds and 5 TDs would be a successful rookie campaign.

 

[Bob Magaw]

Rookie seasons like Boldin, Michael Clayton, A.J. Green and Keenan Allen are the exception that proves the rule. Hypothetically, if league-wide passing numbers continue to trend up, we could see increases in top rookie numbers.

But Calvin Johnson, Demaryius Thomas, Dez Bryant, Julio Jones and Josh Gordon didn't blow up as rookies. Though Watkins does have the advantage over some in that he is the team's #1 WR from day one.

 

[Adam Harstad]

Scouts have said he is the best WR prospect since Green and Jones (and they were since Calvin, who might have been the best ever, speaking purely as a prospect). Demaryius Thomas and Dez Bryant dropped into the 20s, and they were unable to test at the combine (Bryant's individual workouts were characterized as disappointing due to lack of conditioning). Crabtree went 1.10, and was also unable to workout. Blackmon nearly went top 5, but I didn't like him as much as Watkins at the time. Josh Gordon wasn't as good a prospect, being a second round supplemental pick. Going back further than Megatron, Andre Johnson and Larry Fitzgerald were very highly drafted prospects that I liked better at the time.

I might sort that group (what I thought at the time) as follows:

Calvin

Andre Johnson

Fitz

Green

Watkins

Jones

To me, lately, it seems like a prospect as good comes along every three years or so.

I do think he could be a top 5-10 type WR in a few years, I have conviction on his talent, though I'm aware his size doesn't fit the profile of a current top 5 WR.

I could be wrong, but I always feel like any list that includes Andre Johnson and excludes Charles Rodgers is probably suffering from hindsight bias. Rodgers was nearly-unanimously considered the stronger WR prospect that year, and one of the greatest WR prospects of all time.

As for his size... here are the leaders in fantasy points since 2002:

Reggie Wayne (6'0" 198lbs)

Larry Fitzgerald (6'3" 225lbs)

Steve Smith (5'9" 185lbs)

Andre Johnson (6'3" 219lbs)

Randy Moss (6'4" 215lbs)

Terrell Owens (6'3" 226lbs)

Anquan Boldin (6'1" 218lbs)

Chad Ochocinco (6'1" 192lbs)

Santana Moss (5'10" 185)

Hines Ward (6'0" 205lbs)

Calvin Johnson (6'5" 239lbs)

Donald Driver (6'0" 188lbs)

Torry Holt (6'0" 190lbs)

Roddy White (6'1" 201lbs)

Brandon Marshall (6'4" 229lbs)

Wes Welker (5'9" 190lbs)

Derrick Mason (5'10" 190lbs)

Marques Colston (6'4" 225lbs)

Marvin Harrison (6'0" 175lbs)

Greg Jennings (5'11" 195lbs)

Watkins measured out at 6'1" 211lbs at the combine. That's as tall or taller than 13 of those 20 receivers. That's as heavy or heavier than 12 of those 20 receivers. There's nothing at all wrong with Sammy's size.

 

[Faust]

Bills' Sammy Watkins, EJ Manuel still developing trust

 

[Bob Magaw]

Rogers was an oversight, he was of course a great prospect, as distinguished from being a bust in actuality.

I don't have a problem with Watkins size, which is why I think he can be top 5-10 in a few years. I was speaking more to the kind of contemporary WRs that would be among the top half dozen in startup dynasty leagues (Calvin Johnson, AJ Green, Julio Jones, Demaryius Thomas, Dez Bryant and Josh Gordon if he didn't have the Blackmon-type concerns) in noting the size comparison. They tend to be at least 6'3" (Dez Bryant an outlier) and 220 lbs. (A.J. Green an outlier). Calvin is listed at 6'5", 235 lbs.

It is an interesting question if top WRs are trending bigger (the average OL is probably bigger than 1-2 decades ago), or if this is cyclical or flukey, and the top WRs might be closer to Watkins size in 5-10 years?

Your list suggests a few things.

It's hard to compare players by a total like this when they have played varying lengths of time. Calvin has played seven years (AJ Green only three), Holt retired several years ago. Sorting a list over the past decade by, best first 5-6 seasons, or best consecutive 5-6 years would be more of a level playing field as a basis for comparison. Players like Santana Moss and Donald Driver played a long time, and their longevity is rewarded in a list like this. If there is any size-correlation information to be data-mined and extracted from breaking it down the level playing field way (apples to apples comparison of first or best consecutive 5-6 year span, or some other parameter which measures the same time frame) which might be favorable to Watkins in his first five years, that should in turn lead to a projection that his production will likely extend past his mid-20s, in the absence of any specific durability concerns.

Another factor is that QBs can impact career totals. Wayne is a great WR, but I'm not sure Randy Moss, Calvin Johnson, Andre Johnson, Larry Fitzgerald, AJ Green, Demaryius Thomas, etc., couldn't have done better (and I think Thomas has in DEN, at least in the two years he has had the opportunity) with Peyton Manning throwing to them.

Even going by your list, five of the top seven are taller and/or bigger than Watkins, and Calvin is closing in. The top dynasty WRs currently like Calvin, Green, Jones, Thomas and Bryant haven't played long enough to populate the top of a list that extends back 12 seasons.

As noted, I like Watkins a lot. If he could do everything that he does now, and was 2-3" taller and 10-20 lbs. bigger, I would like him even more. If Calvin Johnson, Green and Jones had identical triangle numbers to Watkins, they probably wouldn't have been as highly regarded prospects as they were.

I'm not advocating a simplistic screen that looks exclusively at size, but think WRs, or any position, should be looked at on a case by case basis (which is why I prefer Watkins to Evans in dynasty). Right now, Calvin is the player 0 at his position, which the best are measured against. If the top 5 WRs NOW in dynasty start ups were the size of Steve Smith, Santana Moss, Donald Driver, Wes Welker and Derrick Mason, we would probably be having a different conversation. Mason is kind of in between those groups. His size isn't as "wrong" as Moss (Santana), or as "right" as Calvin if you express it as a range within a spectrum or continuum. His height is probably close to average among ALL WRs, his size might be above average at a solid, well proportioned 211 lbs.

If we break down the contemporary top 5-6 WRs, there may be some things Watkins does better. Maybe he has more elite speed than Dez Bryant. Maybe he is more physical and breaks tackles better than AJ. Green. But when "inventorying" their OVERALL constellation of physical and athletic traits and skill set/game attributes, in the absence of compelling evidence that Watkins does a lot of things better or that they can't, if they otherwise have similar athleticism, talent, skills, etc., and can do what he can, while being bigger and taller, I will tend to favor that prospect. I'm not sure if Watkins has enough compensating factors to be better than the current top 5 dynasty WRs AS A PROSPECT, but I think he has a chance to be as good as some of them.

* A few points I got from the below recent analytics article:

1) There are a lot of factors other than size that comprise what we call a good or great WR.

2) NFL success was correlated to pedigree strongly and size weakly within the parameters of the data set studied.

3) Observed differences in greater frequency of good/great NFL WRs that are above average in height/weight at a given historical moment could be due to there being more prospects that fall into that category (Waldman alludes to WHY that might be). If the bottom line is that the bust rate for taller/bigger WRs is the same as more average sized WRs (and more closely associated with and linked to pedigree than height/size), than there is no advantage conferred by screening simply by size, it is important to take a broader, more encompassing look at OVERALL factors that distinguish the prospects.

WR Size: Is It Valid Analysis?

By Chase Stuart and Matt Waldman

http://mattwaldmanrsp.com/2014/06/02/wrsizeisitvalidanalysis/

 

[Faust]

Rotoworld:

Bills.com's Chris Brown believes A.J. Green is a good indicator for what Sammy Watkins can be in his rookie season.
Watkins, like Green, was drafted fourth overall and will be featured as a true No. 1 receiver as a rookie. Green posted a 65/1,057/7 line in 15 games his first season. He was a top-15 fantasy wideout despite playing with fellow rookie Andy Dalton, who was unproven at the time. Brown "[doesn't] think those are unrealistic numbers for Watkins" and expects the Bills to use him in a similar role. Watkins is currently the No. 36 wideout in Rotoworld's pre-training camp rankings.

Source: buffalobills.com

 

[FavreAndAwayAnIdiot]

Scouts have said he is the best WR prospect since Green and Jones (and they were since Calvin, who might have been the best ever, speaking purely as a prospect). Demaryius Thomas and Dez Bryant dropped into the 20s, and they were unable to test at the combine (Bryant's individual workouts were characterized as disappointing due to lack of conditioning). Crabtree went 1.10, and was also unable to workout. Blackmon nearly went top 5, but I didn't like him as much as Watkins at the time. Josh Gordon wasn't as good a prospect, being a second round supplemental pick. Going back further than Megatron, Andre Johnson and Larry Fitzgerald were very highly drafted prospects that I liked better at the time.

I might sort that group (what I thought at the time) as follows:

Calvin

Andre Johnson

Fitz

Green

Watkins

Jones

To me, lately, it seems like a prospect as good comes along every three years or so.

I do think he could be a top 5-10 type WR in a few years, I have conviction on his talent, though I'm aware his size doesn't fit the profile of a current top 5 WR.

I could be wrong, but I always feel like any list that includes Andre Johnson and excludes Charles Rodgers is probably suffering from hindsight bias. Rodgers was nearly-unanimously considered the stronger WR prospect that year, and one of the greatest WR prospects of all time.

...and he very well could have been at that level. He showed flashes prior to his freakish collarbone break early, then again prior to the 2nd break.

After that, the dude just checked out. Anyone suggesting the skill wasn't there prior to the injuries isn't entirely accurate, so agree with you here.