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WR Sammy Watkins, BAL (2 Viewers)
- Thread starter Carter_Can_Fly
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Milkman
Footballguy
Bob Magaw
Footballguy
A 1" and 10 lb. difference is inexplicable to some as cause for a deal breaker in his dynasty projection as a potential elite WR.
To others, it is patently obvious why this should be so. I find these kinds of disconnects interesting (kind of like in a hard to solve puzzle or riddle sense), in this case because it is arguably a fairly small margin that is in dispute.
Manuel is a bigger concern to me in redraft than dynasty. I'm not certain he will be so bad that it precludes Watkins from being productive, but if he is, BUF could address that as soon as next season.
I just think that if he could dominate at 1" and 10 lbs. bigger, he would be able to approximate that that at his size. If he can't at his size, I'm not sure that 1" and 10 lbs. would make that big a difference. But I may be in the minority. I do think that his game, such as it is, won't necessarily be as a red zone dominator. I've compared Watkins to a combination of Roddy White and Percy Harvin, or a faster Crabtree. It might be easier to just call him a combination of Crabtree and Harvin. Nearly the same height and weight as Crabtree, about 2" and 25 lbs heavier than Harvin, probably nearly as fast as Harvin and faster than Crabtree, they have different RAC skills, are both good at it, Watkins isn't as elusive in the open field as Harvin, not as sure about Crabtree (no slouch, a highly recruited prep running QB, like Anquan Boldin, and a couple prolific RAC seasons in college - I think he had a broken foot in his pre-draft process, as did Demaryius Thomas and Julio Jones in their's?).
While Crabtree and Harvin haven't been elite for most of their NFL body of work, they both had roughly half seasons in 2012 (Crabtree's may have involved the playoffs, about 8 games after Kaepernick became the starter around mid-season) where they produced at around a top 3-5 WR level. Since then, in 2013, we barely got to see Harvin due to his hip surgery, and never saw Crabtree at full strength, returning from a ruptured Achilles tendon. If they pick up where they left off in 2012, they could be WR1s. Also, what Crabtree would be like if he was nearly as fast as Harvin, or Harvin would be like if he was as big as Crabtree (with the caveats above), we don't know. Some think that is Torrey Smith or Pierre Garcon (not that he will do as good as they are NOW as a rookie, but in terms of at a comparable stage of development, and how their respective careers unfold and play out), I think he has the talent to be better than that. The good thing is, we will soon find out.
To others, it is patently obvious why this should be so. I find these kinds of disconnects interesting (kind of like in a hard to solve puzzle or riddle sense), in this case because it is arguably a fairly small margin that is in dispute.
Manuel is a bigger concern to me in redraft than dynasty. I'm not certain he will be so bad that it precludes Watkins from being productive, but if he is, BUF could address that as soon as next season.
I just think that if he could dominate at 1" and 10 lbs. bigger, he would be able to approximate that that at his size. If he can't at his size, I'm not sure that 1" and 10 lbs. would make that big a difference. But I may be in the minority. I do think that his game, such as it is, won't necessarily be as a red zone dominator. I've compared Watkins to a combination of Roddy White and Percy Harvin, or a faster Crabtree. It might be easier to just call him a combination of Crabtree and Harvin. Nearly the same height and weight as Crabtree, about 2" and 25 lbs heavier than Harvin, probably nearly as fast as Harvin and faster than Crabtree, they have different RAC skills, are both good at it, Watkins isn't as elusive in the open field as Harvin, not as sure about Crabtree (no slouch, a highly recruited prep running QB, like Anquan Boldin, and a couple prolific RAC seasons in college - I think he had a broken foot in his pre-draft process, as did Demaryius Thomas and Julio Jones in their's?).
While Crabtree and Harvin haven't been elite for most of their NFL body of work, they both had roughly half seasons in 2012 (Crabtree's may have involved the playoffs, about 8 games after Kaepernick became the starter around mid-season) where they produced at around a top 3-5 WR level. Since then, in 2013, we barely got to see Harvin due to his hip surgery, and never saw Crabtree at full strength, returning from a ruptured Achilles tendon. If they pick up where they left off in 2012, they could be WR1s. Also, what Crabtree would be like if he was nearly as fast as Harvin, or Harvin would be like if he was as big as Crabtree (with the caveats above), we don't know. Some think that is Torrey Smith or Pierre Garcon (not that he will do as good as they are NOW as a rookie, but in terms of at a comparable stage of development, and how their respective careers unfold and play out), I think he has the talent to be better than that. The good thing is, we will soon find out.
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GroveDiesel
Footballguy
FWIW, it's being reported that Watkins' agent said that he is fine and could have even gone back into the game if it had been a regular season game. My guess is the Bills are just being cautious and want him to be 100% for the regular season.
Milkman
Footballguy
It does make a difference in the red zone. 6'0 tall WR don't typically excel in the red zone on a regular basis. It is what it is. Is it possible that Watkins could be the exception to the rule? Yes but it's unlikely so you have to ignore the crazy hype of being a top 5 draft pick and downgrade him accordingly.
Milkman
Footballguy
What have you guys seen in his college tape, college stats, or at the combine that make you think he is going to be anything more than a below average red zone threat? If he's not going to be a 9+ TD a year threat then in order for him to be elite he is going to have to be a reception and yardage monster. He could def do that but he has close to no shot in the Bills low volume passing game. We haven't even got to how bad the QB is on his team yet.
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Bob Magaw
Footballguy
Again, I'm not sure the red zone will be the most important part of his game. Crabtree and Harvin aren't 6'2", 220 lbs., either (though Crabtree is within 1" and 5 lbs. - Watkins is closer to 6'1" than 6'0"), and they had the top 3-5 half seasons in 2012. Why prorate a half season? Harvin had been trending up before the injury cut short his season, and Crabtree's breakout coincided with the introduction of Kaepernick into the starting line up. It is an exception recently, which raises the historical question, could this be cyclical, or will it prove to be a long term trend.
An article by Matt Waldman and Chase Stuart addressed whether taller WRs did better than their shorter counterparts, if they had the same draft pedigree (same approximate range selected). Their conclusion (with some minor modifiers, people can google it if interested), was that they didn't. A popular opinion seems to be that since Mike Evans was taken near where Watkins was (1.7 and 1.4, respectively), since he is taller, also fast for his size and a plus athlete with good hands, even apart from QB considerations, Evans should do better because he is taller. If I understand the article, it states the height difference is already priced into the higher pedigree of Watkins. Scouts know he isn't as tall, so if he graded out higher than Evans, they understandably concluded scouts are weighting other factors higher (that was in general, I don't think they used that specific example), and think he does other things better.
I found the article instructive, partly because there was a long list of shorter WRs that have done well, and bigger WRs that flopped. There are (at least lately) more tall, elite WR prospects. So, again, if I understand the article, and this is my example, not exact percentages, if there are 4 taller prospects and two shorter prospects that are drafted in the first round of a given draft, and the bust rate is about 50%, ON AVERAGE
, there would be 2 hits and 2 busts among the tall WRs, and 1 hit and 1 bust among the shorter WRs. So twice as many tall hits. But also twice as many tall busts. If a taller and shorter WR are both taken around 1.5 (not a lot of them in the past decade) or 1.10, their statistical and historical research suggested they tend to do about the same. The taller WR didn't do better, though that seems to be an assumption by many.My recollection is that article wasn't specifically looking at elite WRs ONLY (in the sense of this thread), but encompassed first round data.
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Bob Magaw
Footballguy
I'm saying he could excel in ways other than in the red zone (like Crabtree and Harvin in 2012). But you already acknowledged above that he could be productive in other ways, just that in your opinion, it wasn't likely. I understand and respect that.
Basically, it isn't likely for ANY rookie to become a future elite WR. I can say, at the time, I thought Calvin Johnson and A.J. Green were among the best prospects I've ever seen. I don't put Watkins in their class, but same with Evans. Based on the article, I don't think there is good reason to think Evans will do better than Watkins because he is taller. There may be many that break down the differences between the two rookie WRs with far more variables, but I think for a significant number of people, they were close enough, that height was in the end the key determinant in tipping the scales.
Personally, I wouldn't let the fact that Evans has McCown/Glennon sway me over taking Watkins because he has Manuel, in dynasty (because it could be different as soon as 2015). They would have to be virtually identical prospects, and that isn't the case, for me. I like Evans, a lot, just not as much as Watkins.
* Some, not you, have talked about WRs like DHB and Ted Ginn that were high pedigree (top 10) failures. Obviously Ginn has nothing to do with Watkins size-wise. But they were viewed as reaches, even at the time. Watkins was imo a consensus top 2-4 pick for most of the pre-draft process. Few would have been surprised if STL had taken Watkins at 1.2, and in a historically good draft, according to scome scouts and personnel-types, that is some pretty lofty draft real estate. Hype for a top 5 prospect that is legit like Watkins (he also wan't a one-year wonder, only WR in NCAA history to be an AP All-American as a true Freshman), is different from top 10 hype for a WR like DHB or Ginn.
Basically, it isn't likely for ANY rookie to become a future elite WR. I can say, at the time, I thought Calvin Johnson and A.J. Green were among the best prospects I've ever seen. I don't put Watkins in their class, but same with Evans. Based on the article, I don't think there is good reason to think Evans will do better than Watkins because he is taller. There may be many that break down the differences between the two rookie WRs with far more variables, but I think for a significant number of people, they were close enough, that height was in the end the key determinant in tipping the scales.
Personally, I wouldn't let the fact that Evans has McCown/Glennon sway me over taking Watkins because he has Manuel, in dynasty (because it could be different as soon as 2015). They would have to be virtually identical prospects, and that isn't the case, for me. I like Evans, a lot, just not as much as Watkins.
* Some, not you, have talked about WRs like DHB and Ted Ginn that were high pedigree (top 10) failures. Obviously Ginn has nothing to do with Watkins size-wise. But they were viewed as reaches, even at the time. Watkins was imo a consensus top 2-4 pick for most of the pre-draft process. Few would have been surprised if STL had taken Watkins at 1.2, and in a historically good draft, according to scome scouts and personnel-types, that is some pretty lofty draft real estate. Hype for a top 5 prospect that is legit like Watkins (he also wan't a one-year wonder, only WR in NCAA history to be an AP All-American as a true Freshman), is different from top 10 hype for a WR like DHB or Ginn.
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werdnoynek
Footballguy
Again, I'm not sure the red zone will be the most important part of his game. Crabtree and Harvin aren't 6'2", 220 lbs., either (though Crabtree is within 1" and 5 lbs. - Watkins is closer to 6'1" than 6'0"), and they had the top 3-5 half seasons in 2012. Why prorate a half season? Harvin had been trending up before the injury cut short his season, and Crabtree's breakout coincided with the introduction of Kaepernick into the starting line up. It is an exception recently, which raises the historical question, could this be cyclical, or will it prove to be a long term trend.
An article by Matt Waldman and Chase Stuart addressed whether taller WRs did better than their shorter counterparts, if they had the same draft pedigree (same approximate range selected). Their conclusion (with some minor modifiers, people can google it if interested), was that they didn't. A popular opinion seems to be that since Mike Evans was taken near where Watkins was (1.7 and 1.4, respectively), since he is taller, also fast for his size and a plus athlete with good hands, even apart from QB considerations, Evans should do better because he is taller. If I understand the article, it states the height difference is already priced into the higher pedigree of Watkins. Scouts know he isn't as tall, so if he graded out higher than Evans, they understandably concluded scouts are weighting other factors higher (that was in general, I don't think they used that specific example), and think he does other things better.
I found the article instructive, partly because there was a long list of shorter WRs that have done well, and bigger WRs that flopped. There are (at least lately) more tall, elite WR prospects. So, again, if I understand the article, and this is my example, not exact percentages, if there are 4 taller prospects and two shorter prospects that are drafted in the first round of a given draft, and the bust rate is about 50%, ON AVERAGE
My recollection is that article wasn't specifically looking at elite WRs ONLY (in the sense of this thread), but encompassed first round data.
Milkman has been trying to push his size as a major hit to his value all offseason.
Looking at Team % for red zone targets last season, it seems some NFL teams have no issues throwing to "short" guys in the red zone. There are actually 3 guys 6'1" or under in the top 10... Victor Cruz lead the NFL with 46.2% of the Giant's red zone targets. Jermaine Kearse in Seattle was #8 with 30.3%. They both had more targets in the red zone on their respective teams than Calvin Johnson. Coming in at #10 was Antonio Brown who is a whopping 5'10". (via Rotowire)
None of those guys have the talent that Watkins has, are similar in stature, yet they're still targeted a ton by their teams in the red zone. Why would they keep targeting them if they're too short to be successful in the red zone?
Looking at this site: http://fflockerroom.com/2014/07/16/top-20-redzone-producing-wide-receivers-from-2013/
They attempt to look at the Top 20 red zone producing wide receivers in 2013... guess how many guys 6'1" and under there are in this article... 9 of them. Interesting...
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Milkman
Footballguy
lol Werd you are really good with some of your posting then you post Victor Cruz and his 4 receiving TDs. Thanks for making my point. Victor Cruz was force fed targets in the red zone last year guys and failed miserably. Are you done posting nonsense yet werd?Again, I'm not sure the red zone will be the most important part of his game. Crabtree and Harvin aren't 6'2", 220 lbs., either (though Crabtree is within 1" and 5 lbs. - Watkins is closer to 6'1" than 6'0"), and they had the top 3-5 half seasons in 2012. Why prorate a half season? Harvin had been trending up before the injury cut short his season, and Crabtree's breakout coincided with the introduction of Kaepernick into the starting line up. It is an exception recently, which raises the historical question, could this be cyclical, or will it prove to be a long term trend.
An article by Matt Waldman and Chase Stuart addressed whether taller WRs did better than their shorter counterparts, if they had the same draft pedigree (same approximate range selected). Their conclusion (with some minor modifiers, people can google it if interested), was that they didn't. A popular opinion seems to be that since Mike Evans was taken near where Watkins was (1.7 and 1.4, respectively), since he is taller, also fast for his size and a plus athlete with good hands, even apart from QB considerations, Evans should do better because he is taller. If I understand the article, it states the height difference is already priced into the higher pedigree of Watkins. Scouts know he isn't as tall, so if he graded out higher than Evans, they understandably concluded scouts are weighting other factors higher (that was in general, I don't think they used that specific example), and think he does other things better.
I found the article instructive, partly because there was a long list of shorter WRs that have done well, and bigger WRs that flopped. There are (at least lately) more tall, elite WR prospects. So, again, if I understand the article, and this is my example, not exact percentages, if there are 4 taller prospects and two shorter prospects that are drafted in the first round of a given draft, and the bust rate is about 50%, ON AVERAGE
My recollection is that article wasn't specifically looking at elite WRs ONLY (in the sense of this thread), but encompassed first round data.
Milkman has been trying to push his size as a major hit to his value all offseason.
Looking at Team % for red zone targets last season, it seems some NFL teams have no issues throwing to "short" guys in the red zone. There are actually 3 guys 6'1" or under in the top 10... Victor Cruz lead the NFL with 46.2% of the Giant's red zone targets. Jermaine Kearse in Seattle was #8 with 30.3%. They both had more targets in the red zone on their respective teams than Calvin Johnson. Coming in at #10 was Antonio Brown who is a whopping 5'10". (via Rotowire)
None of those guys have the talent that Watkins has, are similar in stature, yet they're still targeted a ton by their teams in the red zone. Why would they keep targeting them if they're too short to be successful in the red zone?
Looking at this site: http://fflockerroom.com/2014/07/16/top-20-redzone-producing-wide-receivers-from-2013/
They attempt to look at the Top 20 red zone producing wide receivers in 2013... guess how many guys 6'1" and under there are in this article... 9 of them. Interesting...
Over the last five years, the top 20 WRs in red zone targets have been 73.75", which is the exact same height as the top receivers by receiving yards. 40% of the top 20 are Watkins' height or shorter.
But this is just targets. What about receiving TDs? Surely the guys who lead the league in red zone touchdowns must be taller, right? Well, they are... barely. The top 20 receivers by red-zone TDs over the last five years measure, on average, 73.90". So they're 0.15" taller, but again, over a third of the sample checks in at 6'1" or shorter. 6'5" Calvin Johnson is tied for the second most red zone TDs in the last five seasons. You know who he's tied with? 5'9" Wes Welker.
Okay, let's ignore targets and let's ignore touchdowns. Let's look strictly at goal-to-go efficiency. Tall receivers don't really get more targets in the red zone, and they don't really get more touchdowns in the redzone, but surely they must be tops at converting targets into touchdowns, right? Actually, hilariously, exactly the opposite is true! 44 receivers have received at least 20 targets inside the opponent's 10-yard line over the last five years. The top 20 in terms of converting those targets into touchdowns stand, on average, just 73.2" tall. The most efficient players at converting targets into touchdowns at the goal line over the last five years have been shorter than Sammy Watkins! But that's not even the best part. If we look just at the top 10 players in TD efficiency, that height drops to 72.7"! If we look just at the top 5- the absolute best, most dominant, most unstoppable goal-line threats at Wide Receiver over the last five years, the average height is- and I swear I'm not making this up- 71.0". That's 5'11". The five most efficient goal-to-go receivers over the last five years have been Dez (6'2"), Greg Jennings (5'11"), Wes Welker (5'9"), Jeremy Maclin (6'0"), and Lance Moore (5'9"). Of the top 16 in TD%, just three have stood taller than 6'2"- VJax, Colston, and Decker. Every other receiver- all thirteen of them- have been 6'2" or shorter.
This idea that receivers have to be tall to dominate in the red zone doesn't just ignore the realities of the league over the last five years, it directly contradicts them.
Bob Magaw
Footballguy
Outstanding information about how 2013 league-wide red zone targets related to height.Again, I'm not sure the red zone will be the most important part of his game. Crabtree and Harvin aren't 6'2", 220 lbs., either (though Crabtree is within 1" and 5 lbs. - Watkins is closer to 6'1" than 6'0"), and they had the top 3-5 half seasons in 2012. Why prorate a half season? Harvin had been trending up before the injury cut short his season, and Crabtree's breakout coincided with the introduction of Kaepernick into the starting line up. It is an exception recently, which raises the historical question, could this be cyclical, or will it prove to be a long term trend.
An article by Matt Waldman and Chase Stuart addressed whether taller WRs did better than their shorter counterparts, if they had the same draft pedigree (same approximate range selected). Their conclusion (with some minor modifiers, people can google it if interested), was that they didn't. A popular opinion seems to be that since Mike Evans was taken near where Watkins was (1.7 and 1.4, respectively), since he is taller, also fast for his size and a plus athlete with good hands, even apart from QB considerations, Evans should do better because he is taller. If I understand the article, it states the height difference is already priced into the higher pedigree of Watkins. Scouts know he isn't as tall, so if he graded out higher than Evans, they understandably concluded scouts are weighting other factors higher (that was in general, I don't think they used that specific example), and think he does other things better.
I found the article instructive, partly because there was a long list of shorter WRs that have done well, and bigger WRs that flopped. There are (at least lately) more tall, elite WR prospects. So, again, if I understand the article, and this is my example, not exact percentages, if there are 4 taller prospects and two shorter prospects that are drafted in the first round of a given draft, and the bust rate is about 50%, ON AVERAGE
My recollection is that article wasn't specifically looking at elite WRs ONLY (in the sense of this thread), but encompassed first round data.
Milkman has been trying to push his size as a major hit to his value all offseason.
Looking at Team % for red zone targets last season, it seems some NFL teams have no issues throwing to "short" guys in the red zone. There are actually 3 guys 6'1" or under in the top 10... Victor Cruz lead the NFL with 46.2% of the Giant's red zone targets. Jermaine Kearse in Seattle was #8 with 30.3%. They both had more targets in the red zone on their respective teams than Calvin Johnson. Coming in at #10 was Antonio Brown who is a whopping 5'10". (via Rotowire)
None of those guys have the talent that Watkins has, are similar in stature, yet they're still targeted a ton by their teams in the red zone. Why would they keep targeting them if they're too short to be successful in the red zone?
Looking at this site: http://fflockerroom.com/2014/07/16/top-20-redzone-producing-wide-receivers-from-2013/
They attempt to look at the Top 20 red zone producing wide receivers in 2013... guess how many guys 6'1" and under there are in this article... 9 of them. Interesting...
That is what I like about threads like this, sometimes I learn things I didn't know before.
* Kearse seems like the monster that doesn't belong, but Cruz has had WR1 production in recent years, and Brown did in 2013, in his debut as the primary WR.
Height and weight are stupid. Ignore them completely.
Banger
Footballguy
werdnoynek
Footballguy
Bob Magaw
Footballguy
But the larger point is, Cruz was #4 in 2011 and #13 in 2012 (FBG scoring). I don't know what his red zone target or conversion rate was those years, but even if he wasn't a red zone monster, than he must have been doing it in other ways.lol Werd you are really good with some of your posting then you post Victor Cruz and his 4 receiving TDs. Thanks for making my point. Victor Cruz was force fed targets in the red zone last year guys and failed miserably. Are you done posting nonsense yet werd?Again, I'm not sure the red zone will be the most important part of his game. Crabtree and Harvin aren't 6'2", 220 lbs., either (though Crabtree is within 1" and 5 lbs. - Watkins is closer to 6'1" than 6'0"), and they had the top 3-5 half seasons in 2012. Why prorate a half season? Harvin had been trending up before the injury cut short his season, and Crabtree's breakout coincided with the introduction of Kaepernick into the starting line up. It is an exception recently, which raises the historical question, could this be cyclical, or will it prove to be a long term trend.
An article by Matt Waldman and Chase Stuart addressed whether taller WRs did better than their shorter counterparts, if they had the same draft pedigree (same approximate range selected). Their conclusion (with some minor modifiers, people can google it if interested), was that they didn't. A popular opinion seems to be that since Mike Evans was taken near where Watkins was (1.7 and 1.4, respectively), since he is taller, also fast for his size and a plus athlete with good hands, even apart from QB considerations, Evans should do better because he is taller. If I understand the article, it states the height difference is already priced into the higher pedigree of Watkins. Scouts know he isn't as tall, so if he graded out higher than Evans, they understandably concluded scouts are weighting other factors higher (that was in general, I don't think they used that specific example), and think he does other things better.
I found the article instructive, partly because there was a long list of shorter WRs that have done well, and bigger WRs that flopped. There are (at least lately) more tall, elite WR prospects. So, again, if I understand the article, and this is my example, not exact percentages, if there are 4 taller prospects and two shorter prospects that are drafted in the first round of a given draft, and the bust rate is about 50%, ON AVERAGE
My recollection is that article wasn't specifically looking at elite WRs ONLY (in the sense of this thread), but encompassed first round data.
Milkman has been trying to push his size as a major hit to his value all offseason.
Looking at Team % for red zone targets last season, it seems some NFL teams have no issues throwing to "short" guys in the red zone. There are actually 3 guys 6'1" or under in the top 10... Victor Cruz lead the NFL with 46.2% of the Giant's red zone targets. Jermaine Kearse in Seattle was #8 with 30.3%. They both had more targets in the red zone on their respective teams than Calvin Johnson. Coming in at #10 was Antonio Brown who is a whopping 5'10". (via Rotowire)
None of those guys have the talent that Watkins has, are similar in stature, yet they're still targeted a ton by their teams in the red zone. Why would they keep targeting them if they're too short to be successful in the red zone?
Looking at this site: http://fflockerroom.com/2014/07/16/top-20-redzone-producing-wide-receivers-from-2013/
They attempt to look at the Top 20 red zone producing wide receivers in 2013... guess how many guys 6'1" and under there are in this article... 9 of them. Interesting...
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werdnoynek
Footballguy
I don't have the conversion numbers readily available unfortunately. I thought the targets were mighty interesting and while he didn't convert many at all, getting the most looks in the NFL just goes to show teams could care less about size in the red zone.But the larger point is, Cruz was #4 in 2011 and #13 in 2012 (FBG scoring). I don't know what his red zone target or conversion rate was those years, but even if he wasn't a red zone monster, than he must have been doing it in other ways.lol Werd you are really good with some of your posting then you post Victor Cruz and his 4 receiving TDs. Thanks for making my point. Victor Cruz was force fed targets in the red zone last year guys and failed miserably. Are you done posting nonsense yet werd?Again, I'm not sure the red zone will be the most important part of his game. Crabtree and Harvin aren't 6'2", 220 lbs., either (though Crabtree is within 1" and 5 lbs. - Watkins is closer to 6'1" than 6'0"), and they had the top 3-5 half seasons in 2012. Why prorate a half season? Harvin had been trending up before the injury cut short his season, and Crabtree's breakout coincided with the introduction of Kaepernick into the starting line up. It is an exception recently, which raises the historical question, could this be cyclical, or will it prove to be a long term trend.
An article by Matt Waldman and Chase Stuart addressed whether taller WRs did better than their shorter counterparts, if they had the same draft pedigree (same approximate range selected). Their conclusion (with some minor modifiers, people can google it if interested), was that they didn't. A popular opinion seems to be that since Mike Evans was taken near where Watkins was (1.7 and 1.4, respectively), since he is taller, also fast for his size and a plus athlete with good hands, even apart from QB considerations, Evans should do better because he is taller. If I understand the article, it states the height difference is already priced into the higher pedigree of Watkins. Scouts know he isn't as tall, so if he graded out higher than Evans, they understandably concluded scouts are weighting other factors higher (that was in general, I don't think they used that specific example), and think he does other things better.
I found the article instructive, partly because there was a long list of shorter WRs that have done well, and bigger WRs that flopped. There are (at least lately) more tall, elite WR prospects. So, again, if I understand the article, and this is my example, not exact percentages, if there are 4 taller prospects and two shorter prospects that are drafted in the first round of a given draft, and the bust rate is about 50%, ON AVERAGE
My recollection is that article wasn't specifically looking at elite WRs ONLY (in the sense of this thread), but encompassed first round data.
Milkman has been trying to push his size as a major hit to his value all offseason.
Looking at Team % for red zone targets last season, it seems some NFL teams have no issues throwing to "short" guys in the red zone. There are actually 3 guys 6'1" or under in the top 10... Victor Cruz lead the NFL with 46.2% of the Giant's red zone targets. Jermaine Kearse in Seattle was #8 with 30.3%. They both had more targets in the red zone on their respective teams than Calvin Johnson. Coming in at #10 was Antonio Brown who is a whopping 5'10". (via Rotowire)
None of those guys have the talent that Watkins has, are similar in stature, yet they're still targeted a ton by their teams in the red zone. Why would they keep targeting them if they're too short to be successful in the red zone?
Looking at this site: http://fflockerroom.com/2014/07/16/top-20-redzone-producing-wide-receivers-from-2013/
They attempt to look at the Top 20 red zone producing wide receivers in 2013... guess how many guys 6'1" and under there are in this article... 9 of them. Interesting...
When statistics like these are nonsense, it's time for a reality check...
Bob Magaw
Footballguy
Nice post.
What do the numbers look like for reception leaders in the past five years, sorted by height (it sounds like you already did them for receiving yards).
As far as WRs that have amassed the most receptions and receiving yards in the past five years, Roddy White (6'0", 215 lbs.) would have to be very high. Calvin Johnson. Welker missed time with a torn ACL, but was one of the most productive and consistent WRs in his prime.
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Xue
Footballguy
Xue
Footballguy
There is so much context missing in those numbers. So many dynamics that play into the final results that go unrecorded by traditional stats and even PFF.
HINT: What do Greg Jennings, Wes Welker, and Lance Moore have in common?
Another hint: Where do Wes Welker and Lance Moore primarily line up and what kind of coverage or lack of coverage are they facing?
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Dragon1952
Footballguy
Actually Rice, Carter and Reed were tall....(meaning at least 6'2")...especially for the era's they played in. And Decker is 6'3".
Bob Magaw
Footballguy
The context of the question that was in response to was, are WRs more likely to be "red zone monsters" if they are 6'2" or taller. Looks like by some measures they weren't in the past five years.
How important it is to have an elite QB or be a slot WR in order to be a red zone monster if you are not 6'2" or taller are good questions that could be screened for. Elite QB would need to be defined, but certainly Favre/Rodgers, Brady and Brees qualify.
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tone1oc
Footballguy
Since we are using 5 years as an arbitrary number, I got a list of WRs who have had more than 10 TD receptions in season in last 5 years..
1 Calvin Johnson wr 2011 26 5 16 96 1681 17.51 16 265.2
2 Dwayne Bowe wr 2010 26 4 16 72 1162 16.14 15 206.6
3 Jordy Nelson wr 2011 26 4 16 68 1263 18.57 15 216.3
4 James Jones wr 2012 28 6 16 64 784 12.25 14 162.4
5 Demaryius Thomas wr 2013 26 4 16 92 1430 15.54 14 227.0
6 Dez Bryant wr 2013 25 4 16 93 1233 13.26 13 201.4
7 Eric Decker wr 2012 25 3 16 85 1064 12.52 13 184.4
8 Larry Fitzgerald wr 2009 26 6 16 97 1092 11.26 13 187.2
9 Randy Moss wr 2009 32 12 16 83 1264 15.23 13 204.4
10 Dez Bryant wr 2012 24 3 16 92 1382 15.02 12 209.7
11 Greg Jennings wr 2010 27 5 16 76 1265 16.64 12 198.4
12 Calvin Johnson wr 2010 25 4 15 77 1120 14.55 12 187.2
13 Calvin Johnson wr 2013 28 7 14 84 1492 17.76 12 221.2
14 Brandon Marshall wr 2013 29 8 16 100 1295 12.95 12 201.5
15 Miles Austin wr 2009 25 4 16 81 1320 16.30 11 197.8
16 Eric Decker wr 2013 26 4 16 87 1288 14.80 11 194.8
17 A.J. Green wr 2013 25 3 16 98 1426 14.55 11 208.6
18 A.J. Green wr 2012 24 2 16 97 1350 13.92 11 204.8
19 Brandon Lloyd wr 2010 29 8 16 77 1448 18.81 11 209.0
20 Brandon Marshall wr 2012 28 7 16 118 1508 12.78 11 216.6
21 Hakeem Nicks wr 2010 22 2 13 79 1052 13.32 11 171.2
22 Laurent Robinson wr 2011 26 5 14 54 858 15.89 11 151.8
23 Roddy White wr 2009 28 5 16 85 1153 13.56 11 181.5
24 Mike Williams wr 2010 23 1 16 65 964 14.83 11 162.4
25 Marques Colston wr 2012 29 7 16 83 1154 13.90 10 175.4
26 Jerricho Cotchery wr 2013 31 10 16 46 602 13.09 10 119.7
27 Victor Cruz wr 2012 26 3 16 86 1092 12.70 10 169.2
28 Larry Fitzgerald wr 2013 30 10 16 82 954 11.63 10 156.2
29 Steve Johnson wr 2010 24 3 16 82 1073 13.09 10 167.3
30 Julio Jones wr 2012 23 2 16 79 1198 15.16 10 182.8
31 Marvin Jones wr 2013 23 2 16 51 712 13.96 10 137.7
32 Jeremy Maclin wr 2010 22 2 16 70 964 13.77 10 160.0
33 Brandon Marshall wr 2009 25 4 15 101 1120 11.09 10 175.9
34 Demaryius Thomas wr 2012 25 3 16 94 1442 15.34 10 204.2
35 Mike Wallace wr 2010 24 2 16 60 1257 20.95 10 189.6
36 Reggie Wayne wr 2009 31 9 16 100 1264 12.64 10 185.4
37 Wes Welker wr 2013 32 10 13 73 778 10.66 10 137.8
38 Roddy White wr 2010 29 6 16 115 1389 12.08 10 199.2
Only 12/38 were under 6'2". Of that group, five (Jones,Jennings,Lloyd,Wayne&Welker) had an elite first ballot HOF QBs throwing them the ball (Rodgers,Peyton & Brady).
I would say only Mike Williams did it with an average or below QB while Roddy White was the only one to do it multiple times.
To me this reinforces the idea that elite WRs score a lot of TDs and that taller (6'2"+) score a lot of TDs more than shorter WRs do. It also tells me that shorter WRs who score a lot of TDs come from good to great QB situations.
1 Calvin Johnson wr 2011 26 5 16 96 1681 17.51 16 265.2
2 Dwayne Bowe wr 2010 26 4 16 72 1162 16.14 15 206.6
3 Jordy Nelson wr 2011 26 4 16 68 1263 18.57 15 216.3
4 James Jones wr 2012 28 6 16 64 784 12.25 14 162.4
5 Demaryius Thomas wr 2013 26 4 16 92 1430 15.54 14 227.0
6 Dez Bryant wr 2013 25 4 16 93 1233 13.26 13 201.4
7 Eric Decker wr 2012 25 3 16 85 1064 12.52 13 184.4
8 Larry Fitzgerald wr 2009 26 6 16 97 1092 11.26 13 187.2
9 Randy Moss wr 2009 32 12 16 83 1264 15.23 13 204.4
10 Dez Bryant wr 2012 24 3 16 92 1382 15.02 12 209.7
11 Greg Jennings wr 2010 27 5 16 76 1265 16.64 12 198.4
12 Calvin Johnson wr 2010 25 4 15 77 1120 14.55 12 187.2
13 Calvin Johnson wr 2013 28 7 14 84 1492 17.76 12 221.2
14 Brandon Marshall wr 2013 29 8 16 100 1295 12.95 12 201.5
15 Miles Austin wr 2009 25 4 16 81 1320 16.30 11 197.8
16 Eric Decker wr 2013 26 4 16 87 1288 14.80 11 194.8
17 A.J. Green wr 2013 25 3 16 98 1426 14.55 11 208.6
18 A.J. Green wr 2012 24 2 16 97 1350 13.92 11 204.8
19 Brandon Lloyd wr 2010 29 8 16 77 1448 18.81 11 209.0
20 Brandon Marshall wr 2012 28 7 16 118 1508 12.78 11 216.6
21 Hakeem Nicks wr 2010 22 2 13 79 1052 13.32 11 171.2
22 Laurent Robinson wr 2011 26 5 14 54 858 15.89 11 151.8
23 Roddy White wr 2009 28 5 16 85 1153 13.56 11 181.5
24 Mike Williams wr 2010 23 1 16 65 964 14.83 11 162.4
25 Marques Colston wr 2012 29 7 16 83 1154 13.90 10 175.4
26 Jerricho Cotchery wr 2013 31 10 16 46 602 13.09 10 119.7
27 Victor Cruz wr 2012 26 3 16 86 1092 12.70 10 169.2
28 Larry Fitzgerald wr 2013 30 10 16 82 954 11.63 10 156.2
29 Steve Johnson wr 2010 24 3 16 82 1073 13.09 10 167.3
30 Julio Jones wr 2012 23 2 16 79 1198 15.16 10 182.8
31 Marvin Jones wr 2013 23 2 16 51 712 13.96 10 137.7
32 Jeremy Maclin wr 2010 22 2 16 70 964 13.77 10 160.0
33 Brandon Marshall wr 2009 25 4 15 101 1120 11.09 10 175.9
34 Demaryius Thomas wr 2012 25 3 16 94 1442 15.34 10 204.2
35 Mike Wallace wr 2010 24 2 16 60 1257 20.95 10 189.6
36 Reggie Wayne wr 2009 31 9 16 100 1264 12.64 10 185.4
37 Wes Welker wr 2013 32 10 13 73 778 10.66 10 137.8
38 Roddy White wr 2010 29 6 16 115 1389 12.08 10 199.2
Only 12/38 were under 6'2". Of that group, five (Jones,Jennings,Lloyd,Wayne&Welker) had an elite first ballot HOF QBs throwing them the ball (Rodgers,Peyton & Brady).
I would say only Mike Williams did it with an average or below QB while Roddy White was the only one to do it multiple times.
To me this reinforces the idea that elite WRs score a lot of TDs and that taller (6'2"+) score a lot of TDs more than shorter WRs do. It also tells me that shorter WRs who score a lot of TDs come from good to great QB situations.
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Grigs Allmoon
Footballguy
What percentage of WRs, in general, are under 6'2"? If it is somewhere around 30% then your point is completely moot.
ETA: It's actually about 60%...
Ignore this post. Carry on...
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werdnoynek
Footballguy
None of the guys under 6'2" were top 5 picks with Watkins talent either.
Look, touchdowns are only part of the equation to put up elite fantasy numbers... Josh Gordon and Antonio Brown, the top two receivers last year in PPR leagues had under 10 TD's... does that make their season un-elite? I don't think so.
If we look at yardage leaders or reception leaders, I think we'll see that the "shorter" guys get it done in that category too.
Milkman
Footballguy
How can he be a reception and yardage monster in a low volume passing offense with a crap QB?
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Milkman
Footballguy
This is the thing. If Watkins was truly a transcendent player he wouldn't need special circumstances to become elite. He would be elite in spite of whatever obstacles were placed in front of him. The problem is he is not a transcendent player and he has very little chance of becoming elite. Could he still do it? Yes but it's very doubtful in this offense. They could change the offense and draft an elite QB and then Watkins could put up some elite FF seasons. Until then he has little chance of breaking into even WR1 territory.
Hey Bob Magraw, Would you believe Evan Silva?
6. Sammy Watkins
Long term, I think Watkins projects as a combination of Pierre Garcon and Torrey Smith's strengths. In the short term, I think there's every reason to believe his production will fail to align with his mid-seventh-round Average Draft Position. Reggie Wayne, Terrance Williams, Golden Tate, Kendall Wright, and Eric Decker are the five receivers being drafted directly behind him.
Although Watkins has been the subject of endless hype, he is limited from a size standpoint and will likely struggle to win contested catches as an NFL rookie. Amid overwhelming media praise, Watkins has three catches for 21 yards on seven preseason targets. There's also the matter of being a rookie wide receiver in and of itself, where expectations can be unreasonably high. Throw in Buffalo's glaring quarterback concerns and the NFL's run-heaviest offense, and Watkins would do well to match college teammate DeAndre Hopkins' first-year stats (52-802-2). I wouldn't want any part of Watkins at his ADP. Fellow Bills starter Mike Williams, a proven touchdown scorer in the pros, can be had seven-plus rounds later.
Link
1) I think we all can agree that Pierre Garcon/Torrey Smith aren't elite, but solid WR2 types(my contention all along).
2) "He is limited from a size standpoint" like I said.
To be an elite WR, you need to demand a huge amount of targets somehow. Great athlete/size, etc. In short spurts, some players get great numbers because of no competition(pierre garcon 2013) for targets but it isn't sustained. Or have a HOF type QB. Watkins has none of the above, which is why I peg him as a WR2 type or low end WR1 in his better seasons.
6. Sammy Watkins
Long term, I think Watkins projects as a combination of Pierre Garcon and Torrey Smith's strengths. In the short term, I think there's every reason to believe his production will fail to align with his mid-seventh-round Average Draft Position. Reggie Wayne, Terrance Williams, Golden Tate, Kendall Wright, and Eric Decker are the five receivers being drafted directly behind him.
Although Watkins has been the subject of endless hype, he is limited from a size standpoint and will likely struggle to win contested catches as an NFL rookie. Amid overwhelming media praise, Watkins has three catches for 21 yards on seven preseason targets. There's also the matter of being a rookie wide receiver in and of itself, where expectations can be unreasonably high. Throw in Buffalo's glaring quarterback concerns and the NFL's run-heaviest offense, and Watkins would do well to match college teammate DeAndre Hopkins' first-year stats (52-802-2). I wouldn't want any part of Watkins at his ADP. Fellow Bills starter Mike Williams, a proven touchdown scorer in the pros, can be had seven-plus rounds later.
Link
1) I think we all can agree that Pierre Garcon/Torrey Smith aren't elite, but solid WR2 types(my contention all along).
2) "He is limited from a size standpoint" like I said.
To be an elite WR, you need to demand a huge amount of targets somehow. Great athlete/size, etc. In short spurts, some players get great numbers because of no competition(pierre garcon 2013) for targets but it isn't sustained. Or have a HOF type QB. Watkins has none of the above, which is why I peg him as a WR2 type or low end WR1 in his better seasons.
Banger
Footballguy
MoveToSkypager
Footballguy
There is no Bob Magraw.
GroveDiesel
Footballguy
http://blog.triblive.com/steel-mill/2014/08/15/kaboly-tribs-iphone-video-of-sammy-watkins-vs-lew-toler-goes-viral/#axzz3Aqdut3Bg
Or the 4:25 mark of this video:
All of those demonstrate his redzone abilities. He does a great job of extending and high pointing balls. He has extremely strong hands and great concentration. And these videos aren't even demonstrating his ability to stop, cut and accelerate at absurd speeds. His ability to burst off of the line make him an ideal slot guy that goes down and gets that short slant in the RZ like Welker excels at.
GroveDiesel
Footballguy
Why would anyone believe Silva? He's one of the absolute worst prognosticators. Don't believe me? Just check the accuracy rankings for draft, in-season and weekly rankings. He doesn't even show up in the top 50 rankings of any of them.http://www.fantasypros.com/nfl/accuracy/draft.php?year=2010
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Nobody said that Watkins can't extend to catch a football, however only 1 of the receptions you pointed out was contested. That's my concern and also what Evan Silva pointed out. Just like going from HS to college to the NFL, the DBs will have better coverage and are more athletic. Brandin Cooks can make contested catches as well, but I don't think that's where he will excel in the NFL. It's due to ability and size. Anquan Boldin is one of the few players below 6'2 that makes contested receptions on a regular basis, but I think we can all agree he's much more physical than Watkins.
I think Sammy Watkins is a good football player, but I don't think he has elite abilities(top 5). His size and tested athletic abilities and game on the field show a good player, none of them indicate greatness(top 5) around the corner in FF.
It's someone that gets paid for this hobby, which is more than 90% on this message board. Also that data isn't for dynasty, which would make this relevant. FBG's has Watkins as a low end WR3 for 2014, I agree with that.
It's a bit of work to compile the data, so I'll just assume that the receptions leaderboard will look not-dissimilar from the receiving yardage leaderboard.
Plenty of tall WRs have great quarterbacks, too. And if the theory is that lining in the slot makes a guy a more effective red zone weapon, I'm buying that... but why can't Sammy Watkins line up in the slot? My point is that there are lots of paths to red zone relevancy, and only one of them involves meeting arbitrary height cutoffs.
Among all 1,000 yard receivers, players who are 6'5" averaged a TD for every 142.8 yards gained. Players who are 6'0" averaged a TD for every 158.9 yards gained. That's a very real difference that suggests that the tall guys are, indeed, disproportionately more likely to score TDs. It's also a tiny difference that amounts to about 0.8 TDs on a 1200-yard season.
Of course, the idea that more height is better is a bit hampered by the reality that the guys who were the most efficient at converting yards into touchdowns were just 6'2" tall...
Edit: Expanding upon this, I looked up the Yard:TD rate of all 1k receivers over the last 5 years and sorted them into 1" and 10lb buckets (i.e. all 6'5" receivers, all 6'4" receivers, all 230+ lb receivers, all 220-229 lb receivers, and so on and so forth).
Receivers who were under 6'0" tall or 200 pounds did, in fact, have an exceptionally hard time converting yards into touchdowns. For instance, receivers who weighed between 180 and 189 pounds scored a touchdown for every 209 yards. For receivers in the 200-209 range, that was one TD for every 139 yards. That's a huge difference.
But once players are over those minimum thresholds, I'm not seeing any significant difference in the numbers between the different groups. By weight, for example, every group between 200 and 250 pounds averages a TD per every 131-151 yards. The most efficient group is the 220-229 pounders. The second most efficient group is the 200-209 pounders. The difference between the 240-pounders and the 210 pounders is about 4 yards per TD.
I'm really not seeing any data that suggests we should automatically assume that anybody over 6'0" or 200 pounds is going to struggle to convert yards into touchdowns.
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Lets take a look at WRs with 1,200 yards or more and their average Height:
2009= 72.75
2010= 72.5
2011= 73.13
2012= 74.3
2013= 74.42
Lets take a look at WRs with 10 TDs or more and their average height
2009= 74.17
2010= 73.2
2011= 75.3
2012= 74.6
2013= 74.4
Under 6'2 in only 1 season
Lastly, lets look at WRs in the top 10 in my PPR league and their average height
2009= 73.4
2010= 73.3
2011= 72.8
2012= 74.1
2013= 74.8
The NFL is showing a GROWING trend in taller WRs to produce better in PPR leagues.
2009= 72.75
2010= 72.5
2011= 73.13
2012= 74.3
2013= 74.42
Lets take a look at WRs with 10 TDs or more and their average height
2009= 74.17
2010= 73.2
2011= 75.3
2012= 74.6
2013= 74.4
Under 6'2 in only 1 season
Lastly, lets look at WRs in the top 10 in my PPR league and their average height
2009= 73.4
2010= 73.3
2011= 72.8
2012= 74.1
2013= 74.8
The NFL is showing a GROWING trend in taller WRs to produce better in PPR leagues.
Is that because the NFL is leaning towards taller receivers, or is that because the best receivers to enter the league in recent years have happened to be tall? The NFL sees fluctuations like that all the time.
werdnoynek
Footballguy
Average height (without getting a calculator out) appears to be 6'2" ... Sammy missing that 1/4" is going to really make or break his career in the NFL? I don't think so.
