Do you disagree and think Sammy Watkins will thrive in contested/jump ball situations? I don't think he will.
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WR Sammy Watkins, BAL (2 Viewers)
- Thread starter Carter_Can_Fly
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That's for each to decide, but i'm choosing that taller WRs = easier road to being elite. UNLESS, you're paired up with a HOF QB- see Welker types.
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
Height is not the end-all be-all in jump ball situations and ball skills (where Watkins excels) can do a lot to overcome that. AJ Green is MUCH better in jump ball situations than guys like Julio, Dez, and Demaryius even though his body type is worse for it (no bulk) because he has great ball skills. Brandon Lloyd (6'0" 185) was better in jump ball situations than Andre Johnson (6'3" 230) ever was.
Regardless, this jump ball stuff is incredibly overblown. Even Calvin Johnson brings in maybe 1 or 2 TDs a year in true jump ball situations. Guys like Demaryius and Julio have height, but I'm not sure they have a single jump ball TD in their entire career. Terrell Owens never really caught jump balls. Actual jump balls are extremely rare. It's all about getting those long arms out there around defenders that are behind on a play, which is how those two guys get a lot of their TDs. Watkins is extremely good at that and if you watch his highlight tapes you'll see him doing it on quite a few of his TDs.
I would be surprised if there were any receivers in the last 15 years not named AJ Green, Calvin Johnson, or Randy Moss that have more than 3 true jump ball TDs in their whole career.
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I've watched Watkins his whole career and I don't think his jump ball skills are "extremely rare." I think everyone wants to put Sammy Watkins into this "the next great WR...." category and because I disagree, he must hate Sammy Watkins. That's not it at all, but he's not "rare" "elite" at any one thing on the football field. I've seen him drop many passes or not come down with contested passes numerous times. I've also seen him live by passes near the LOS and it takes one defender out of position to fill the alley and he breaks it. When in reality, that's not what NFL WRs do often.
werdnoynek
Footballguy
Oh ok. So he is destined for failure. This whole time I thought he was an inch taller...
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I don't think Watkins will be a great jump-ball receiver, no. I also don't think being a great jump-ball receiver is the sine qua non of fantasy success. Marvin Harrison wasn't much of a jump ball receiver. Terrell Owens wasn't, either. Jerry Rice didn't make his living catching jump balls. Andre Johnson hasn't been a jump ball guy, either. Demaryius and Julio have a lot of strengths, but "winning jump balls" isn't really among them.
And, again, the data suggests that 6'2" receivers score touchdowns at a greater rate than 6'5" receivers. Watkins is closer in height to the empirical TD-scoring ideal than Mike Evans is, but can you please provide me a link to anyone ever saying Mike Evans is too tall to dominate in the red zone?
Kool-Aid Larry
Footballguy
help us out, sammy
GroveDiesel
Footballguy
In real news: Watkins is back on the practice field in pads today
Grigs Allmoon
Footballguy
Glad we both agree his jump ball skills aren't "extremely rare" and that's all I was showing there.
This debate isn't Watkins vs Mike Evans. It's can Watkins be am elite FF wr. Nothing I've seen statically shows he can be without a hof type qb. The numbers I crunched showed top 10 guys are getting taller, not shorter.
GroveDiesel
Footballguy
I think they put lifts in his shoes. He should be good for 1800 yards and 13 TDs now.
MoveToSkypager
Footballguy
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
You misread my post. I never said Watkins' jump ball skills were extremely rare or anything of the sort. What I said was that jump ball TDs are extremely rare. Like I said, there have been maybe 3 players in the last 15 years that have seen any real boost to their value because of their jump ball ability.
Does it really matter if Sammy Watkins doesn't catch a bunch of jump balls? Take away all of Julio Jones and Demaryius Thomas' jump ball TDs for their career and how much does it affect their value? I'm not sure it affects their value at all, because I don't think either of them have ever caught a jump ball TD in the NFL.
You're talking like jump ball touchdowns are some common thing that fantasy WRs require to supplement their value. That's just not the case. There's a reason that any time one happens across the entire league it ends up at the top of Sportscenter's top 10 plays for the week. Because it doesn't happen that often.
Sure, all things considered you'd rather have a guy be tall than not, but it's not some brick wall that prevents a player from catching touchdowns or being elite, especially when we're not talking about some 5'8" guy here. The 6'3" Julio Jones hasn't caught touchdowns at any higher rate per attempt from Matt Ryan than the 6'0" Roddy White did from Matt Ryan. The 6'3" Demaryius Thomas hasn't caught touchdowns at any higher rate per attempt from Peyton Manning than the 6'0" Reggie Wayne or the 6'0" Marvin Harrison did.
That's not the case at all. I think you've gotten lots of good discussion and back and forth about the specific points you and other posters have brought up. The point you've gotten the most pushback and discussion on doesn't even have to do with Watkins at all, but rather the take on the current NFL WR crop and that "because all of the currently elite WRs are tall, being tall must be a requirement to be elite".
Sadly though, this seems to have become the norm around here lately. Anyone on the minority side of a discussion eventually breaks down to the point of "oh you just hate me because I don't agree with the consensus". That's not the case at all and, quite frankly, with all of the good discussion generated in here it's pretty rude to just skim past it all and assume that anyone challenging your points of discussion is just blabbing along because of some personal vendetta against you for not loving the guy being discussed.
Bob Magaw
Footballguy
Hey tdmirlls, Would you believe Thomas Dimitroff?
http://q.usatoday.com/2014/02/22/nfl-combine-clemson-sammy-watkins-not-happy-with-being-no-1-wide-receiver/
"Sammy is a special receiver."
"Since Julio (Jones) and A.J. (Green), came out, this is the kind of WR since then (you want)."
Sounds like he is alluding to Watkins being the best WR prospect since Green and Jones. Note that he didn't qualify it by saying, he could have been the best prospect since them, except he is too short.
Would you believe Greg Cosell?
http://sports.yahoo.com/news/mike-evans--kelvin-benjamin-fit-nfl-s-trend-of-bigger-is-better-at-wr-011017034.html
"Sammy Watkins, at 6-1 and 211 pounds, is viewed by some as not quite big enough to be an elite prospect (I do not subscribe to that school of thought. I believe he is the best wide receiver to come out of college since the 2011 draft that featured Green and Julio Jones; some in the league see him as the best prospect since Johnson in the 2007 draft)."
Google Mike Evans best prospect since A.J. Green Julio Jones. When Evans name shows up, it is invariably elsewhere in an article in which Watkins is cited as the best WR prospect since Green and Jones. If we are going to name drop, I'm going to go with names like Dimitroff, who drafted Jones (there would have to be few better positioned to make such a comparison), has been in the NFL for decades and worked his way up to become a scouting director for Belichik before being promoted to GM in ATL, and Cosell, who has worked for NFL Films, and co-created with the late Steve Sabol the show now known as NFL Matchup over three decades ago.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thomas_Dimitroff
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Greg_Cosell
1) I think we all can agree that Green and Jones are elite WR1 types (my contention all along).
2) Watkins is a special WR and the best since Green and Jones like I said.
Football Outsiders/Matt Waldman (Watkins compared to Harvin)
http://www.footballoutsiders.com/futures/2013/futures-clemson-wr-sammy-watkins
"This run after the catch against Georgia last weekend is another nice display of discipline and balance. A lot of receivers leave their feet on passes thrown behind them (see the Hurns link earlier), but Watkins adjusts with his upper body. Once he turns, he's pads, knees, and elbows while moving downhill. While there's not much of a tackle by the Georgia defensive back, Watkins' ball-carrying technique further minimized the defender's chances.
Getting into this position as a runner also allowed Watkins to be the aggressor at the collision point, attack the defender, and knock the defender aside. Watkins doesn’t look like Hines Ward incarnate on many of his highlights because his speed is good enough to outrun far more angles than Ward. However, like Percy Harvin, Watkins bounces off glancing blows that drop other receivers because he runs the football with running-back technique whenever possible."
These plays are excellent demonstrations of a player with a fast processor. He’s decisive, understands how to use his body, and is willing to engage physical play. Fast-thinking, physical players win jobs in the NFL. Fast-thinking, physical players with great speed, quickness, and strength become productive starters with star potential.
It’s important to note that Watkins isn’t just willing to bang. He balances this physical nature with the intelligence of a veteran –- especially over the middle."
Looking back in the past 5-10 years may have some use, but since Watkins intersection of elite 1.4 pedigree (same as Green, two spots higher than Jones) and 6'1" height is unprecedented in that time frame, than looking for similar sized or even shorter WRs who were drafted lower to have done the same thing could be an unrealistic expectation. Neither the rare breakthroughs or more common failures of other, similar sized but lower pedigree WRs in recent years doesn't have to be interpreted as an indictment on Watkins. Is an Armani suit rare? I don't know if it is THAT rare. Thinking it is rare on the basis of not being to find one after an exhaustive search of local Walmarts might be a spurious conclusion, though, and an example of looking in the wrong place for the answer you are seeking (if there were lots of WRs with Watkins rare pedigree/height intersection that failed in the past decade, it would be another story, but that isn't the case), which is why I'm not pegging his upside as low as you in the future.
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Bob Magaw
Footballguy
Not everybody thinks he can't be a transcendent talent because he isn't 6'2", though. The question of whether or not Watkins is a transcendent talent despite not being 6'2" is precisely what is in dispute.
Bob Magaw
Footballguy
1) Size - A factual statement, I don't think anybody disputes he is nearly 6'1" and 211 lbs., not too controversial to note he isn't hulking or gargantuan.
2) Tested athletic ability - Subject to a bit more interpretation, VJ non-elite, EBF showed how a 4.43 at 211 lbs. may not be that common among recent top WR prospects. Guys like Andre Johnson, Calvin Johnson and Julio Jones were better, Fitzgerald was slower, Green was less than 211 and slower, I don't think Bryant is as fast and not sure about Thomas. It was pointed out that the 4.43 was as fast as OBJ despite being taller and bigger, and you responded that OBJ looks faster on the field. I don't agree, so lets just say his speed at the combine was more impressive than OBJs, given his greater size.
3) Game on the field - Now we get completely immersed in subjective interpretation. Everybody is entitled to their opinion, your's is that Watkins play is indicative of a good, not great player. Others (such as Dimitroff and Cosell) think his play points towards potential stardom.
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Bob Magaw
Footballguy
How many WRs under 6'2" drafted 1.4 or higher were in the NFL during this time frame? If the answer is none, than the data may be less relevant to Watkins.
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Bob Magaw
Footballguy
Everything is harder for every prospect in the pros relative to college, lots of things Evans did will be harder for him, too. We don't know yet how their skills will project to the NFL. We can only judge them by what they did in college for now.tdmills said:
Even if scheme limitations make his NFL projection murkier to an extent, he can still be evaluated relative to his collegiate peers. How rare were some of the things he did? He is the only WR in the nation to have two 90 yard TDs last year. Other WRs got bubble screens. If it was just a simple matter of, as you said, one defender being out of position and failing to fill the alley, plenty of WRs would get multiple 90 yard TDs every year. But they don't. If Watkins isn't a great player, but just a good player that got lucky, why don't more good players get lucky?
Perhaps there were missed tackles. But again, why wouldn't many other WRs similarly take advantage of missed tackles? If Watkins is an ordinary athlete, why don't more RBs or TEs get multiple 90 yard TDs? Every year.
Bubble screens aren't the only kind of plays in which a defensive mistake could lead to a potential long score. But if it is just as simple as one misaligned defender, that makes it sound so incredibly easy, like almost anybody could bust a few 90 yard TDs a season.
If there isn't a good reason to explain this away and dismiss his two 90 yard TDs as "lucky", and maybe this is evidence of rare skills relative to his peers, than that could indicate his explosiveness makes his game MORE translatable to the NFL and scheme-independent.
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georg013
Footballguy
I don't understand the thinking here. Fitz was far from elite when Arizona was struggling through quarterbacks and line issues. Moss was a nonfactor while he was in Oakland. Many of the so-called bad situations for guys like AJ Green and Calvin Johnson were really not bad situations at all. I think we are downplaying the effects of situation here. I believe there ARE factors that players cannot overcome regardless of how elite they are. Not saying Sammy is elite but to act like players shoud just be able to overcome everything is a reach IMO. Sammy can't fix poor quarterback play and crappy play calling anymore than Fitz could help keep Kolb upright long enough to throw an accurate pass.
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GreenBaySnackers
Footballguy
This is an excellent post, thanks for the perspective. I'm gonna take a shot on him with my 1.01 (2QB league). If he doesn't live up to his expectations then oh well, can't get it right every time.
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GroveDiesel
Footballguy
I know that evaluations eventually involve a decent amount of subjectivity, but I just don't know how anyone can watch video of this guy and not think he has elite speed and quickness. He's constantly outrunning everyone on the field and he's constantly blowing through holes or by guys that thought they had good angles. I don't care what his combine time supposedly is, he has elite game speed and acceleration and it absolutely pops out at you when you watch him. If someone doesn't see that, then Inhabe to think they just are being willful about it.
To be fair, pretty much all of that video is against college players and/or low level NFL camp bodies. I happen to agree that he'll be more than fast/quick enough to succeed in the NFL, but it's still very different.
Second Sight
Footballguy
Would it be more fair to say that Watkins will be the next Steve Smith in his prime? I would agree that we can't compare all players when they are closer comparisons physically but I can't get on board that Watkins is the next Andre Johnson. I see them as very different players.
Steve Smith was a top fantasy receiver in his best years and Watkins reminds me more of him that anyone.
The million dollar question may be is the team around him good enough to get the most of him? Elite talent doesn't always need that but you do need a competent QB and scheme to get a WR involved. §
Steve Smith was a top fantasy receiver in his best years and Watkins reminds me more of him that anyone.
The million dollar question may be is the team around him good enough to get the most of him? Elite talent doesn't always need that but you do need a competent QB and scheme to get a WR involved. §
georg013
Footballguy
I think the problem is that the same people who knock Watkins because of his "lack" of height are all too ready to annoint guys like Evans and Matthews despite them having played against the same level of competition. It's not like they were playing against high level NFL players. Yet they are seemingly better suited fto become elite because of an extra inch or two in height. Seems crazy to me.
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GroveDiesel
Footballguy
That's absolutely fair. But there have also been reports and plenty of videos of Watkins blowing by defenders in training camp and in their joint practices against the Steelers. There were multiple reports from Steeler beat reporters basically all saying that Watkins was open all the time and that the Pittsburgh defenders just couldn't defend him (the same was said about Antonio Brown against the Bills which is great news for any Brown owners).
So I think there's at least reason to believe that he will do the same thing against NFL competition as well.
There are a bunch of things being discussed in this thread obviously, but I was only commenting on the speed/quickness thing above.
Sure, but most of those are against guys not giving 100% and/or training camp bodies. Maclin was supposedly "toasting" Revis as well, but then it came out that Revis wasn't going full speed on purpose. The guy that Watkins destroyed in your one link is a UDFA rookie who will be on the street again shortly.
Like I said, I'm pretty confident that he'll be able to play with the "big boys", just pointing out that he hasn't really faced it yet (like every rookie).
Bob Magaw
Footballguy
http://blog.triblive.com/steel-mill/2014/08/15/kaboly-tribs-iphone-video-of-sammy-watkins-vs-lew-toler-goes-viral/#axzz3Aqdut3BgOr the 4:25 mark of this video:GroveDiesel said:
1:00 - Nice speed on the Harvin-like jet sweep. Outruns about four defenders before going out of bounds for a 25 yard gain.
2:15 - Beats a double team, breaks a tackle, turns a third DB around and runs away from a trailing fourth defender while having the field awareness to narrowly avoiding the sideline.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7Kjkh3yV8YA
:50 - Everybody has seen this play (same as described in the Waldman scouting report above), and while there is a missed tackle, look at how fast he squares up before absorbing and deflecting the contact. If I were counting, one one thousand from the time he caught the ball until he squared up, i would need a symbol for half an o from the first letter to describe how nearly instantaneous and in one motion that took place, imo evidence of rare, elite, special agility, body control and suddenness. Than he flashes the post-contact balance, burst, acceleration and explosion to be at full speed in a few steps, outrunning three OTHER defenders (besides the one that missed the tackle) for a 75+ yard score.
2:25 - For a 6'1" speed merchant, this is an example of his physicality, hair on fire intensity, hard-nosed, like a RB in the open field RAC ability. An example of how the ability to "play big" can manifest in other ways than jumping over DBs downfield. He catches the ball behind the LOS at about the 23 yard line, trucks the DB about 15 yards later, drives a second would be tackler another 10 yards, and it might have been more, but another 2-3-4 surrounding defenders finally helped drag him down. There are many, many, many WRs I've seen over the years that have never made a play like that in their entire careers.
Thanks to GreenBaySnackers, elsewhere in the thread.
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sweet
Xue
Footballguy
The case for "big" WRs: http://rotoviz.com/2014/05/visualizing-wide-receiver-size/
Also check out these two graphs:
https://twitter.com/LordReebs/status/459288233889628160
https://twitter.com/LordReebs/status/459088160639569920
Also check out these two graphs:
https://twitter.com/LordReebs/status/459288233889628160
https://twitter.com/LordReebs/status/459088160639569920
The article compared the BMI of all-time great WRs to the BMI of all WRs in the same draft. In case no one else sees the problem with this methodology, I'll spell it out: all-time greats are disproportionately likely to be EARLY round draft picks, while the average WR in the draft is a LATE round pick. Over the last five years, the average pick for all receivers drafted was 123rd overall, which would be the equivalent of the 27th pick in the 4th round except for those pesky supplemental picks. That group of elite WRs, though? Of the 31 guys listed, 7 were taken in the top 6 (including two #1 overall picks), an additional 9 were taken in the top 32, and five more were taken in the top 64. More than 2/3s of the sample were first- or second-round picks, including more than a quarter who went in the top 10 overall. So basically all that analysis is telling us is that the guys drafted really high at receiver tend to be bigger than the guys drafted really late at WR. That's kind of one of those "no duh" observations. They also tend to be faster, jump higher, have better short shuttles, and have better hands. I'm also willing to bet they interview better, too. This doesn't mean we should start drafting receivers who interview well just because they interview well. Comparing Jerry Rice (selected 16th overall) to Shane Swanson (drafted 315 overall in the 12th round- a round that doesn't even exist anymore!) doesn't really tell us anything useful. The really useful question is if you control for draft position, does receiver weight increase his chances of success? After all, we're not asking whether Sammy Watkins is more likely to succeed than late-round scrubs like Quincy Enunwa and Jeremy Gallon (hint: he is), so comparing his weight to theirs isn't useful. The question is whether Watkins is more likely to succeed than other top-10 picks like Mike Evans just because he's smaller.
Thankfully, Rotoviz did the legwork for us on that one, too. They wrote an article titled Chubby Chasers: Why Rotoviz Likes Heavy Receivers. On the whole the article seems to suggest that using WR weight will improve success, but they completely buried the lede. Here's the nut graf from the article: when adding weight to draft position to model future success, "The r-squared doesn’t improve a lot (it does improve slightly) but weight would pass most tests of significance".
Just how slight of an improvement are we talking about? The r-squared for modeling future success with draft position only is 0.331. What that means is that draft position alone explains 33.1% of the variation in the data (or, to put it another way, if you used the model incorporating draft position you would be about 33.1% more likely to correctly predict outcomes than you would through sheer chance alone). Now, if you add weight to draft position and create a model that predicts future performance based on both variables, the r-squared jumps all the way up to... .336, a gain of a whopping five thousandths. So those size-obsessed guys who are discounting Watkins and boosting Evans are one half of one percentage point more likely to be right. That's completely negligible. Predictions based on draft position and weight are functionally no more accurate than predictions based on draft position alone. Weight isn't really bringing any predictive power of its own to the party, it's just piggybacking off of the predictive power of draft position. Or put another way: if we already know a player's draft position, how useful is it to know their weight as well? Historically... not all that useful.
As for Hribar's tweet about the increase in WR weight over the years... that one's also pretty easy to explain.
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massraider
Footballguy
I was avoiding because of Manuel, adding Orton at least made me perk up.
Steve Tasker
Footballguy
FavreAndAwayAnIdiot
Footballguy
Sure will be nice to see him play. He looks great jogging into the locker room...
cmv5
Footballguy
Funny how everybody has given up on this guy for Cooks, Benjamin, etc. based on Manuel and preseason. I understand if the ribs hold him back but to me, he has incredible opportunity this year and I am still expecting a good season. Hoping for a good week 1.
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fruity pebbles
Footballguy
so 3-31 in your first game is now cause for ridicule?
GroveDiesel
Footballguy
He also had a 13 yard catch called back on a dubious holding call and was open deep on what would have been like a 70+ yard TD and Manuel just overthrew it.
Alex P Keaton
Footballguy
Unfortunately, that might be the case for him as long as Manuel is the QB......
GroveDiesel
Footballguy
It's one freaking game. How about we give them more than 1 game to work on timing?
Alex P Keaton
Footballguy
My comment was a statement on Manuel. He sucks. As a Watkins owner, it is the biggest thing that worries me.All that said, I'm ecstatic that they beat the Bears today!
