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WR Sammy Watkins, BAL (1 Viewer)

A handful of exchanges in 2015 is all you have? Come on man. You have to do better than that. Your comp was lame then and it's lame now. Like Milkman you open your big fat mouth when things are going well then disappear when things don't go your way. Let's see if you are still here once Watkins starts lighting it up. Oh yeah. You become his biggest supporter again. Get off the fence and choose a side. 

 
matuski said:
If you cherry pick any decent players stats you can say their best XX games/weeks they were a stud.
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There's no cherry picking involved. After he returned from injury last season, the 2nd half of the season, with fantasy in mind, weeks 9-16 (championship week for most), he went 38-764-7. That's just about 5-100-1 per week. Would be difficult to deny that wouldn't have remained fairly steady had he been on the field.

 
ShamrockPride said:
There's no cherry picking involved. After he returned from injury last season, the 2nd half of the season, with fantasy in mind, weeks 9-16 (championship week for most), he went 38-764-7. That's just about 5-100-1 per week. Would be difficult to deny that wouldn't have remained fairly steady had he been on the field.
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It was a highly efficient 38/764/7 too. He wasn't producing on a gazillion targets like Nuk was. 

 
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I'm starting him over Boyd,  Meredith and Hogan... Unless I talk myself out of it.   14 teamer... 

 
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Chaka said:
Why do we know that?

He's had 5, 8, then he missed 6 games then 7, 5 & 12.  Seems to me that we know very little about his usage.
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Well we can say Coleman should get 5-12 targets based on this year.  I have this decision too. Currently starting Coleman but am warming up to watkins

 
Gandalf said:
Well we can say Coleman should get 5-12 targets based on this year.  I have this decision too. Currently starting Coleman but am warming up to watkins
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I am not trying to sell Sammy over anyone (shtick aside that is) but Coleman seems just as likely, if not more so, to post a 5 target, 2 catch 31 yard performance as Watkins.  I would argue that T.Taylor is far more likely to hit that one play big strike that salvages your week to Sammy (as he throws a great deep ball) than whoever is throwing the ball in Cleveland.

 
Sammy Watkins was already struggling to get the targets he deserved when healthy. He has not practiced so I have a hard time believing he is anything close to game shape. Look how they eased Percy in. Coleman, on the other hand, has received the targets and will have McCown throwing the ball. They are a team that will likely be playing from behind as well. Just my two cents. The coaches are spelling it out for us. Have to be careful not to overthink this one. I want Watkins to shine as much as the next man but we have to be realistic his first game back. 

 
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Chaka said:
I am not trying to sell Sammy over anyone (shtick aside that is) but Coleman seems just as likely, if not more so, to post a 5 target, 2 catch 31 yard performance as Watkins.  I would argue that T.Taylor is far more likely to hit that one play big strike that salvages your week to Sammy (as he throws a great deep ball) than whoever is throwing the ball in Cleveland.
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Plus let's remember that CLEs true WR1 will be on the field,  Terrelle Pryor. Plus McCown loves him some Barnidge too. 

Who else is going to soak up targets in BUF, Charles "I can't get 5 yards off the line" Clay? BUF doesn't have as many pass catching options to begin with,  and their only other somewhat legitimate option is Woods, who isn't playing.

I'm not saying Watkins isn't risky this week,  because he is. Preferably, I wouldn't want to start him unless I had to. If my other option was Coleman though,  I'm plugging Sammy in and hoping for the best. He's had 10 weeks to heal,  and I don't think he'd be playing this week if he was still hobbled. 

 
branch0095 said:
Plus let's remember that CLEs true WR1 will be on the field,  Terrelle Pryor. Plus McCown loves him some Barnidge too. 

Who else is going to soak up targets in BUF, Charles "I can't get 5 yards off the line" Clay? BUF doesn't have as many pass catching options to begin with,  and their only other somewhat legitimate option is Woods, who isn't playing.

I'm not saying Watkins isn't risky this week,  because he is. Preferably, I wouldn't want to start him unless I had to. If my other option was Coleman though,  I'm plugging Sammy in and hoping for the best. He's had 10 weeks to heal,  and I don't think he'd be playing this week if he was still hobbled. 
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Devil's advocate: it also means he's practiced once in 10 weeks.  Might not be in game shape. 

Its not like he had a hand injury and could run and work out. I mean I guess he could do lots of upper body and come out looking like an even slower David Boston, but I'm skeptical.

given the choice presented, yes, I'd probably start Watkins over Coleman this week 

but hopefully no one is holding a gun to anyone's head and forcing them to make that choice. Someone like Taje Sharpe or Boyd might be available - I'd feel better about their floor vs Watkins. 

Seems like a boom or bust play, with a somewhat high % of bust. 

 
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georg013 said:
Sammy Watkins was already struggling to get the targets he deserved when healthy. He has not practiced so I have a hard time believing he is anything close to game shape. Look how they eased Percy in. Coleman, on the other hand, has received the targets and will have McCown throwing the ball. They are a team that will likely be playing from behind as well. Just my two cents. The coaches are spelling it out for us. Have to be careful not to overthink this one. I want Watkins to shine as much as the next man but we have to be realistic his first game back. 
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He had 7.4 targets/game in 13 games last year.  He had 8.7 targets/game during his last 9 games last year if we need to get all granular.  Neither of those target numbers are what one wants from an upper echelon #1 WR but he still performed like one.

He has proven able to feast on limited opportunities.

In all seriousness, clearly this week is a huge risk, but I keep looking at a guy who, more than most, only needs one opportunity to make him a worthwhile fantasy start.

I'm rolling (rolled) with him over Golden Tate, Michael Thomas & Dion Lewis, that is my decision because I got killed by injuries last week (AJ & R.Matthews being the most important ones as it relates to starting Watkins this week.  Definitely wouldn't start him over AJ and would be on the fence re: Matthews).  As with every decision in this magic football hobby I may live to regret it but I don't think I have anyone else available who offers the same talent:opportunity ratio as Sammy.

 
Yeah I'm back to starting Coleman for what thats worth. Mainly because sportsline is saying Adam S. Reporting his snaps will be limited

 
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georg013 said:
A handful of exchanges in 2015 is all you have? Come on man. You have to do better than that. Your comp was lame then and it's lame now. Like Milkman you open your big fat mouth when things are going well then disappear when things don't go your way. Let's see if you are still here once Watkins starts lighting it up. Oh yeah. You become his biggest supporter again. Get off the fence and choose a side. 
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I guess you couldn't take your own advice and just walk away

 
Chaka said:
He had 7.4 targets/game in 13 games last year.  He had 8.7 targets/game during his last 9 games last year if we need to get all granular.  Neither of those target numbers are what one wants from an upper echelon #1 WR but he still performed like one.

He has proven able to feast on limited opportunities.

In all seriousness, clearly this week is a huge risk, but I keep looking at a guy who, more than most, only needs one opportunity to make him a worthwhile fantasy start.

I'm rolling (rolled) with him over Golden Tate, Michael Thomas & Dion Lewis, that is my decision because I got killed by injuries last week (AJ & R.Matthews being the most important ones as it relates to starting Watkins this week.  Definitely wouldn't start him over AJ and would be on the fence re: Matthews).  As with every decision in this magic football hobby I may live to regret it but I don't think I have anyone else available who offers the same talent:opportunity ratio as Sammy.
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Great matchup for Michael Thomas. Sets up as a potentially monster game for him considering the Rams are stout against the run and weak against the pass, and Thomas should draw arguably their worst corner.

Good luck with Watkins tho. 

 
I'm excited to have him for the playoff run, but I can't start him today.  I'm worried that the conditioning will have him in and out all game.

For reference, I have him in 3 leagues, and am starting these names over him

A.Robinson, M.Thomas, and D.Parker (Parker is admittedly giving me pause)

ODB and Cobb

Cooper, M.Thomas, J.HIll (Hill is also tough, this one may swing to Sammy just because I need a big hit)

 
Am considering putting him in over W Tye, TE for the Giants. We can start 2 tight ends, but Watkins offers more upside IMO.

Thoughts?

 
Mene said:
I'm excited to have him for the playoff run, but I can't start him today.  I'm worried that the conditioning will have him in and out all game.

For reference, I have him in 3 leagues, and am starting these names over him

A.Robinson, M.Thomas, and D.Parker (Parker is admittedly giving me pause)

ODB and Cobb

Cooper, M.Thomas, J.HIll (Hill is also tough, this one may swing to Sammy just because I need a big hit)
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I'm with you on this one.    I will start him going forward after Week 12.   

Going with Tajae Sharpe today as my flex,though Marqise Lee is a consideration also.  

 
Gandalf said:
Yeah I'm back to starting Coleman for what thats worth. Mainly because sportsline is saying Adam S. Reporting his snaps will be limited
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If not for the limited snaps, I would be all in. But some of you don't have better options. I can choose from Hill and Starks. 

 
dipandglide said:
Sammy was 5th in in my league the last half of the season last year, and 7th in ppg over that time span. It's not a full season, but it's enough for me to know he's a stud when healthy going forward. 

Sammy won a lot of leagues last year during that stretch too. That's what STUDS do!
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:no:

No, having a great stretch doesn't make one a stud; being consistently great and among the best at your position makes you a stud, something Watkins has yet to achieve.  Watkins looks like a stud when he is healthy and plays, but that is usually, what, a handful of games a season?  His next season as a top 20 WR in FF will be his first. 

 
Ghost Rider said:
:no:

No, having a great stretch doesn't make one a stud; being consistently great and among the best at your position makes you a stud, something Watkins has yet to achieve.  Watkins looks like a stud when he is healthy and plays, but that is usually, what, a handful of games a season?  His next season as a top 20 WR in FF will be his first. 
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I don't consider half the season (8 games) a stretch. What's your personal cutoff between "stretch" and "consistency"? AJ Green apparently just had a great stretch this year of 9 games by your definition, injuries stink. Some of you just like to nitpick.

 
robb said:
Am considering putting him in over W Tye, TE for the Giants. We can start 2 tight ends, but Watkins offers more upside IMO.

Thoughts?
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I know I'm more pro Watkins compared to most people in here this week, but I'm fairly confident (?) that most can agree to say start Watkins here. Even if Sammy lays a goose egg (doubtful), you only miss out in standard scoring on 4-5 point tops.

 
ShamrockPride said:
I don't consider half the season (8 games) a stretch. What's your personal cutoff between "stretch" and "consistency"? AJ Green apparently just had a great stretch this year of 9 games by your definition, injuries stink. Some of you just like to nitpick.
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AJ Green has a proven track record as a stud; Sammy Watkins does not. 

In that same stretch last year, Jeremy Langford was as much of a stud as Watkins was (Watkins was the 5th best WR in PPR from weeks 9-16 last year, Langford was the 5th best RB).  Are we calling Langford a stud, too? 

 
Ghost Rider said:
AJ Green has a proven track record as a stud; Sammy Watkins does not. 

In that same stretch last year, Jeremy Langford was as much of a stud as Watkins was (Watkins was the 5th best WR in PPR from weeks 9-16 last year, Langford was the 5th best RB).  Are we calling Langford a stud, too? 
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Go back and look at the games, not just total stats. Watkins was the definition of consistency in that stretch, Langford earned that high ranking off a single 200 total yard performance against the Rams. Like I said earlier in the thread, it's not difficult to see Watkins is a great player (paired with great target volume) who can and will put up consistent numbers when on the field, and it would be difficult to deny had he been healthy all last year, he would have put those numbers up across 16 games. I'm pretty sure we can all agree consistency is a key ingredient to being a "stud", and it's easy to see with Watkins.

I'm probably in the minority here, but I still remain optimistic Sammy is young enough to improve his endurance and turn his health around with a more serious attitude about staying on the field going forward.

Also one final food for thought. Weeks 9-16 last year, and yes they both played all 8 games:

AJ - 36/614/5

Sammy - 38/764/7

 
ShamrockPride said:
Go back and look at the games, not just total stats. Watkins was the definition of consistency in that stretch, Langford earned that high ranking off a single 200 total yard performance against the Rams. Like I said earlier in the thread, it's not difficult to see Watkins is a great player (paired with great target volume) who can and will put up consistent numbers when on the field, and it would be difficult to deny had he been healthy all last year, he would have put those numbers up across 16 games. I'm pretty sure we can all agree consistency is a key ingredient to being a "stud", and it's easy to see with Watkins.

I'm probably in the minority here, but I still remain optimistic Sammy is young enough to improve his endurance and turn his health around with a more serious attitude about staying on the field going forward.
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Part of being great and being a stud is being lucky enough to stay healthy; Watkins fails big time in that regard. If he can ever find some durability, I have no doubt that he can become a consistent stud, but until then, he is nothing but a tease.  Not only does he miss too many games, but starting him when he is supposedly is healthy can make you a nervous wreck, since he's just as likely to leave the game hurt in the first quarter as he is to blow up for 100 yards and two scores. 

And I didn't bother quoting the last part of your post since it's totally irrelevant. 

 
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Ghost Rider said:
Part of being great and being a stud is being lucky enough to stay healthy; Watkins fails big time in that regard. If he can ever find some durability, I have no doubt that he can become a consistent stud, but until then, he is nothing but a tease. 

And I didn't bother quoting the last part of your post since it's totally irrelevant. 
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You also never answered my question. What's the cutoff between a "streak" and a guy actually being labeled consistent?

 
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Should be interesing. 50% of the snaps & he's basically their only WR with both Harvin & Woods out...could get a couple catches. Might also see extra coverage.

Hard to say what his upside is today. Will the Bills really need to air it out against Jacksonville? Hmmm...

 
ShamrockPride said:
You also never answered my question. What's the cutoff between a "streak" and the guy actually being labeled consistent?
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Because there is no one set answer.  Consistency is when you have a guy you can throw in your lineup without thinking about it and feeling confident that he is going to be productive nearly every week (since every one has a down week here and there).  At WR, guys that fill the bill are A Brown, Julio, OBJ, AJ Green (although he is hurt now, which is unusual), Evans, Fitz, etc.  Watkins is not in that group. 

 
Judge Smails said:
Couple catches - anybody see how he's looking running routes, percentage of plays, etc?
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He's playing around 50% of snaps. He's clearly taking it easy. Just watching him move, you can tell he's playing it safe. His 2 catches were a curl and a comeback to the sideline. Stop routes, not surprising. Probably not gonna see any deep routes or anything with him catching the ball mid stride today.

 
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