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WR Tee Higgins, CIN (1 Viewer)

As a Bengals fan, you have to be happy for Chase and Higgins. I do wonder what the Bengals do on roster construction in the future. You can not keep giving record-breaking deals without sacrificing a significant portion of the roster. I suppose we better hit on our rookies for the foreseeable future.
 
Brett Kollmann
Higgins isn’t just the highest paid WR2 now, he’s the 9th-highest paid receiver period.

This is going to have a pretty substantial impact on the eventual extensions for McLaurin, Puka, and Collins.
Not negativity towards you Faust but I don’t agree with this guys take. Don’t see anything about Tee’s deal which reset any market?
Also is there another Collins I am forgetting? Nico signed an extension last May. Although maybe they mean his next extension as he's still pretty young and it was only a 3 year deal.
FWIW he did mean Nico. I clicked on the tweet and someone mentioned Nico and he said that his contract was a placeholder.
 
Brett Kollmann
Higgins isn’t just the highest paid WR2 now, he’s the 9th-highest paid receiver period.

This is going to have a pretty substantial impact on the eventual extensions for McLaurin, Puka, and Collins.
Not negativity towards you Faust but I don’t agree with this guys take. Don’t see anything about Tee’s deal which reset any market?
If anything, it seems like a bit of a hometown discount. $28.75 AAV is what similar WRs got last offseason before the cap went up 9.3%.
 
Brett Kollmann
Higgins isn’t just the highest paid WR2 now, he’s the 9th-highest paid receiver period.

This is going to have a pretty substantial impact on the eventual extensions for McLaurin, Puka, and Collins.
Not negativity towards you Faust but I don’t agree with this guys take. Don’t see anything about Tee’s deal which reset any market?
If anything, it seems like a bit of a hometown discount. $28.75 AAV is what similar WRs got last offseason before the cap went up 9.3%.
Some might say injury discount but I think he'd have toppled $30M on the open market so I'm with you, a hometown discount if anything.

Not only what you are mentioning with the cap, which is significant, but also that Tee was in a far better negotiation position then any of those other WR's due to Cincy exhausting his contract and the tags, plus the draft class and better options that were available to teams last year to address WR.

Aiyuk got more money then Tee, in a rich draft class, when SF had his rights on the 5th year option but franchise tags at their disposal for the next few years.

Also noticed he did not reference Metcalfs deal. Maybe he's right to ignore that one until we know the real structure, I feel strongly it's going to look a lot worse. But if DK really can make $33m a year, even for two years, now that's the kind of deal that resets the WR market.
 
Smart for the Bengals. They are currently built to win games by overpowering teams on offense and simply outscoring their opponents. They were very unlikely to turn their defense around quickly enough to try and change that identity and still remain competitive, so may as well lean into it.
 
Just doesn't feel like he is only 26. Seems like he has been around a bit longer. Also kinda surprised fantasypros has him at wr13 for the upcoming season. Elite QB. Bad defense. Chase pulls the coverage. Was getting 9 targets a game last year. What are we thinking? Good wr2? Can he go low wr1 numbers?
 
Well, he did pull off 15.5 ppg, which was good for around WR3 in .5ppr. His TD rate was pretty sky high. Bound to be some regression, but the question for me is can he stay healthy?
 
Well, he did pull off 15.5 ppg, which was good for around WR3 in .5ppr. His TD rate was pretty sky high. Bound to be some regression, but the question for me is can he stay healthy?
Man, I swear if this dude can stay healthy for one full season he is a WR1
If you told me he played 16 games in a season I’d be surprised if he wasn’t top 10. Unbelievably talented.

But the injuries are always the rub with him. Almost have to figure he missed at least 2-3.
 
Lol exactly. Maybe just maybe he finally decided to take care of himself. We can only hope. When he is on the field he is a difference maker but he's banged up every other game.
You don't think he takes care of himself??
I don't want to spend a lot of time on this but there are college players who come into the NFL and then realize just doing "enough" to get by isn't enough. If you look at guys like Derek Henry, Tom Brady, Lebron James etc who are 100% all in on their health, eating, rest and recovery, etc maybe he realized he should be doing more.

As a coach (not football but it still stands) I see players who can get by on their talents but don't do all the little things to help with their recovery or maintenance of their bodies. These kids come out of college and now have millions of dollars and might not put their health first.

I don't know Higgins but what he said about "planning to stay healthy" this year is a very odd statement. Why wasn't he working on staying healthy before? Maybe he realized he needs to change his diet/supplements, his sleep, his recovery (physio, massage, stretching etc). It has to be a life style change and many people don't take it seriously - it has to be an every day thing he lives for the rest of his NFL career. It takes effort and many are lazy (again not saying he is) and just get by from their god given talent until their body breaks down.
 
Lol exactly. Maybe just maybe he finally decided to take care of himself. We can only hope. When he is on the field he is a difference maker but he's banged up every other game.
You don't think he takes care of himself??
I don't want to spend a lot of time on this but there are college players who come into the NFL and then realize just doing "enough" to get by isn't enough. If you look at guys like Derek Henry, Tom Brady, Lebron James etc who are 100% all in on their health, eating, rest and recovery, etc maybe he realized he should be doing more.

As a coach (not football but it still stands) I see players who can get by on their talents but don't do all the little things to help with their recovery or maintenance of their bodies. These kids come out of college and now have millions of dollars and might not put their health first.

I don't know Higgins but what he said about "planning to stay healthy" this year is a very odd statement. Why wasn't he working on staying healthy before? Maybe he realized he needs to change his diet/supplements, his sleep, his recovery (physio, massage, stretching etc). It has to be a life style change and many people don't take it seriously - it has to be an every day thing he lives for the rest of his NFL career. It takes effort and many are lazy (again not saying he is) and just get by from their god given talent until their body breaks down.
100%. I call it the Jerry Rice thing. It's the thing you can't know for sure during combine interviews. Is this player gonna give 80% and cruise with his talent or is this player gonna Jerry Rice it and give every second of everyday to get better. Think Kobe also. I have no idea what Tee is or has been in this regard.
 
He's super difficult to place and super difficult to trust.

The upside is a top 5 WR. He's very talented. He has one of the best passing QB's in the league. Their defense causes them to always be in shoot outs.

His per game numbers always look great. But he ALWAYS misses tie. His career high in receptions is 74. His career high in yards is 1091. If he ever stays on the field for all 17 games, he'll probably smash.

I've got him at WR14 tentatively. That feels about right.
 
Redraft

109-110 targets, he's been consistent about this over his career.
Career high 10 TDs last season, had he only hit his avg of about 6, not sure he would be going Late 2nd/early 3rd round.
74-1,000-7TDs although he's missed a lot of games the last 2 seasons so investors are rolling the dice and hoping to improve on these numbers by about 3-4 games
7-8 targets a game is typically where he falls, you can push these to like 82-1,100-8TD but it's mostly conjecture.
Last year it was 73-911 and again he missed a lot fo time, folks are hoping he is available most of the season that draft him on the 2/3 turn
Good luck but overall he seems a little on the high side right now, there's a ceiling for Higgins in Cincinnati

-Can you not find other Wide Receivers a couple rounds later that offer up about the same production as Higgins and give yourself some flexibility on earlier rounds
 
It's a bit strange to handcuff a WR, but given the offense and target concentration around Chase and Higgins this is maybe an exception. Last year the handcuff was kind of Gesicki (he went from a "pray for a TD" TE streamer to a guy you are happy with in your flex most weeks when Higgins was out). I am not sure if it's Gesicki again, or if one of the WRs step up.
 
Redraft

109-110 targets, he's been consistent about this over his career.
Career high 10 TDs last season, had he only hit his avg of about 6, not sure he would be going Late 2nd/early 3rd round.
74-1,000-7TDs although he's missed a lot of games the last 2 seasons so investors are rolling the dice and hoping to improve on these numbers by about 3-4 games
7-8 targets a game is typically where he falls, you can push these to like 82-1,100-8TD but it's mostly conjecture.
Last year it was 73-911 and again he missed a lot fo time, folks are hoping he is available most of the season that draft him on the 2/3 turn
Good luck but overall he seems a little on the high side right now, there's a ceiling for Higgins in Cincinnati

-Can you not find other Wide Receivers a couple rounds later that offer up about the same production as Higgins and give yourself some flexibility on earlier rounds

Counterpoint:
  • Higgins had more targets than Chase when sharing the field last year (108 to 107) and averaged 9.1 T/g (#9 WR)
  • Tied for the 3rd most red zone targets even with missing 5 games
  • #6 WR in end zone targets even with missing 5 games
  • 24.9% target share on a team that might throw even more this year
  • Either #4 or #5 WR in PPG depending on scoring format behind Chase, Jefferson, and Godwin
I would argue Tee Higgins is generally undervalued in redraft. Yes, he misses games - he was hurt to start the year last year. But Nico Collins also misses games every year (both missed 5 games last year) and yet Nico Collins (who Higgins outscored) is being drafted 15 - 20 spots ahead of Higgins.

The injuries are what's keeping Higgins as WR12 off the board. You're not going to find top 5 metrics like these in WRs being drafted around pick 60 (except for potentially Emeka Egbuka or Pickens:sneaky:)
 
Hammies made of glass. Money won’t fix that. Also the annoying habit of “playing through injuries” so you’ll run him out to get a 0 some weeks.

His ADP is whack for a guy who missed a ton of time in his career and who’s never topped 74 receptions. (67, 74, 74, 42, 73)

Biggest fade for me in drafts this year as a 3rd round price tag.
 
Hard to look past the per game production. #3 last year, #1 was his teammate and #2 exited the season after week 7.

I don't see any of that as being a fluke other then the giant 🐘 in the room of not only his health but Burrow's. I say that mainly because if you look past his "fully" healthy games with a healthy Burrow he was not that far off, not top 3 WR stuff but top 10 kind of production.

There is clearly a consensus opinion on the top 11 PPR WR's and then opinions split. IMO he or Tyreek have the most upside/downside of the WR's after that top 11. I draft both a ton but must admit I am scared enough of the risks that in my 8 really big leagues I'm consciously trying not to get to heavy on them, which I kind of hate playing that way but while I'm willing to take risks, I do scare.
 
Hammies made of glass. Money won’t fix that. Also the annoying habit of “playing through injuries” so you’ll run him out to get a 0 some weeks.

His ADP is whack for a guy who missed a ton of time in his career and who’s never topped 74 receptions. (67, 74, 74, 42, 73)

Biggest fade for me in drafts this year as a 3rd round price tag.
I feel like the 0 week thing is overblown. It happened 2 times in 2022. It hasn't happened since. I wouldn't call it a habit.

I've actually found him to be one of my biggest targets in drafts. I think missing time is built into his price, if that wasn't a factor, he'd be up there with guys like Nacua or Amon-Ra. His pace stats last year were 103-1291-14.

One question I have, do you downgrade Nico Collins for his hammies? He's missed 7 games over the last 2 seasons. Personally, and I realize it can bite me, I think assuming injuries is a bit of a fool's errand and tend to actively target guys with durability concern discounts, unless they are already injured. Probably why I have ended up with large shares of CMC, Higgins, Kittle, Evans, Olave, and Deebo.
 
Hammies made of glass. Money won’t fix that. Also the annoying habit of “playing through injuries” so you’ll run him out to get a 0 some weeks.

His ADP is whack for a guy who missed a ton of time in his career and who’s never topped 74 receptions. (67, 74, 74, 42, 73)

Biggest fade for me in drafts this year as a 3rd round price tag.
I feel like the 0 week thing is overblown. It happened 2 times in 2022. It hasn't happened since. I wouldn't call it a habit.

I've actually found him to be one of my biggest targets in drafts. I think missing time is built into his price, if that wasn't a factor, he'd be up there with guys like Nacua or Amon-Ra. His pace stats last year were 103-1291-14.

One question I have, do you downgrade Nico Collins for his hammies? He's missed 7 games over the last 2 seasons. Personally, and I realize it can bite me, I think assuming injuries is a bit of a fool's errand and tend to actively target guys with durability concern discounts, unless they are already injured. Probably why I have ended up with large shares of CMC, Higgins, Kittle, Evans, Olave, and Deebo.
I’ll be the 1st to admit personal bias as Higgins killed me for years.

As for the only 2x in in 2022 comment, I distinctly recall a MNF game against Dallas last year where Chase Brown had 6 receptions & a TD, while Higgins had 2 receptions for 23 yards. IIRC he was fighting through something - I had Higgins going in one league & Brown going in 2, and the 1 game I lost was because of Higgins dud. Can’t recall if it was the quad strain or the hammy but he was out there playing through something and did very little.

In 2023 Higgins had games with targets of
1/2 for 19 yards in game 1
2/4 for 72 yards, 0 TD in game 4 - a game the Bengals scored 34 points.
3/3 36/0 week 5 against JAX
2/4 20/0 week 8 against Seattle
2/4 19/0 week 9 against TEN

He fought through hamstring issues most of that year IIRC.

So ok, I was being hyperbolic when I said “nothing”, but there have been a lot of mediocre weeks, despite the “on pace” stats. A couple of hyper inflated games tend to mask his mostly mid play last year. He had 2 monster games:
Week 2 vs Denver, 11/12 for 131/3
Week 7 vs Chargers, 9/13, 148/1. Those were his only 2 games over 100 receiving yards last year. The 10 ReTDs really boosted his FF points. Those 2 games represented ~23% of his 2024 targets, 20% of his receiving yards, and 40% of his TD production.

Sure, he could play 17 games and be a monster, but watching the Bengals a lot last year it felt like Burrow had Chase & Chase as his top 2 targets. When they force fed Higgins he produced, but they didn’t do that often.

Again, maybe I’m just bitter and biased after rostering him for years. I’m glad I cashed out, and have avoided him at ADP this draft season. I wish his shareholders luck.
 
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watching the Bengals a lot last year it felt like Burrow had Chase & Chase as his top 2 targets. When they force fed Higgins he produced, but they didn’t do that often.

Could be an effect of the bias-colored glasses. Higgins out-targeted Ja'Marr Chase on shared snaps last year.

Higgins has been boom/bust most of his career, but 2024 I believe will mark the change is his usage. With Tyler Boyd gone, his ADOT dropped to a career low of 9.8 yds (compared to 10.9 yds in 2023 and 11.2 yds in 2022). Last year, 68% of his targets were within the 10 yards of the line of scrimmage (compared to 47% in 2023 and 59% in 2022). He's getting more project-able receptions and thus he's not as volatile as years past.

Despite having only 2 games above 100 yards, in his final 9 games last year of the fantasy season, Higgins finished as WR4, WR26, WR9, WR2, WR17, WR59 (Dallas game you may be remembering where he had 2 catches but played the whole game), WR12, WR13, and WR1 overall in PPR.

5 WR1 and 2 WR2 finishes in 9 games to end the season are pretty damn consistent for a guy being drafted as a WR2.
 
5 WR1 and 2 WR2 finishes in 9 games to end the season are pretty damn consistent for a guy being drafted as a WR2.
If you believe that’s replicable. His career numbers suggest otherwise.

Also in all 3 of the NFFC drafts & 1 of the BB’s I did he was drafted as that team’s WR1, after going RB/RB, RB/QB, RB/TE.

That said, I’d like him a lot more as a WR3 with 4th round draft capital than a WR2 with 3rd round draft capital.

Like I said, i get the upside argument. But having watched him more than I’d like to have over the span of his career, I feel like there’s a collective willingness to look past his warts and focus only on the sexy projections. IMO the injury risk should be baked into his price, and I’m struggling to see why it isn’t. And most of the reasons folks give for that is because of arguments like the one above, looking at a small-ish sample size and projecting it to the full season he’s never played, ignoring that he’s struggled with soft tissue injuries his entire career. And at his size, I don’t see those waning.

Seems like if we as a community are going to focus on Tee’s projected stats based on his past performance, we should be more cognizant of his likelihood of missing time based on the same, no? His injury history is a significantly greater sample size than that few game stretch of dominance as a receiver. If you believe in such analysis, Draft Sharks puts him at 90% chance of injury. 90%!

He’s battled hamstring injuries since (at least, documented) 2019 in college, as well as 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, & again in 2024. That’s every year he’s been in the league+. Hamstring strains = tears to the muscle fibers to various degrees. Scar tissue develops, but from what I’ve read, suffering multiple hamstring strains puts a player at significantly higher risk of hurting their hamstrings again.

Anyway, I’m sure he’ll be fine. This is all probably just being (admittedly) biased. I do think some of my concerns are valid though.
 
Hammies made of glass. Money won’t fix that. Also the annoying habit of “playing through injuries” so you’ll run him out to get a 0 some weeks.

His ADP is whack for a guy who missed a ton of time in his career and who’s never topped 74 receptions. (67, 74, 74, 42, 73)

Biggest fade for me in drafts this year as a 3rd round price tag.
I feel like the 0 week thing is overblown. It happened 2 times in 2022. It hasn't happened since. I wouldn't call it a habit.
It's actually happened 3x but it's beside the overall arching point is he's got a nasty habit of crushing you with early exits or not being sure of his status and he played very little.

Last year was a huge improvement on this but he's been a weeks killer a lot in his career.
 
People are sleeping on how good a fantasy player Higgins is. Give me all of the players who play 12 games but put up top 5 numbers during those 12 games and let me use my bench on the games they miss. I'll take 75/1000/7 over 12 games over 85/1100/8 over 17 every day.

PPG > Total Points
 
5 WR1 and 2 WR2 finishes in 9 games to end the season are pretty damn consistent for a guy being drafted as a WR2.
If you believe that’s replicable. His career numbers suggest otherwise.

Also in all 3 of the NFFC drafts & 1 of the BB’s I did he was drafted as that team’s WR1, after going RB/RB, RB/QB, RB/TE.

That said, I’d like him a lot more as a WR3 with 4th round draft capital than a WR2 with 3rd round draft capital.

Like I said, i get the upside argument. But having watched him more than I’d like to have over the span of his career, I feel like there’s a collective willingness to look past his warts and focus only on the sexy projections. IMO the injury risk should be baked into his price, and I’m struggling to see why it isn’t. And most of the reasons folks give for that is because of arguments like the one above, looking at a small-ish sample size and projecting it to the full season he’s never played, ignoring that he’s struggled with soft tissue injuries his entire career. And at his size, I don’t see those waning.

Seems like if we as a community are going to focus on Tee’s projected stats based on his past performance, we should be more cognizant of his likelihood of missing time based on the same, no? His injury history is a significantly greater sample size than that few game stretch of dominance as a receiver. If you believe in such analysis, Draft Sharks puts him at 90% chance of injury. 90%!

He’s battled hamstring injuries since (at least, documented) 2019 in college, as well as 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, & again in 2024. That’s every year he’s been in the league+. Hamstring strains = tears to the muscle fibers to various degrees. Scar tissue develops, but from what I’ve read, suffering multiple hamstring strains puts a player at significantly higher risk of hurting their hamstrings again.

Anyway, I’m sure he’ll be fine. This is all probably just being (admittedly) biased. I do think some of my concerns are valid though.

I've stayed away from him for years because the guy just can't stay on the field and now I've got him in two different leagues.

At some point the guy has to stay healthy and learn how to take care of his body right?
 
People are sleeping on how good a fantasy player Higgins is
Really?

Seems more like people are all-in on how good of a FF player, to the point of disregarding how unreliable he’s been over the years.
I know you're biased against him, but PPG monsters are what I look for. He's Nico that also that takes games off like him but you know which games he's taking off so you can sub someone else in. The fact that you can get him in the late 3rd/early 4th (or half the price in auction) is already a steep discount for his production.
 
At some point the guy has to stay healthy and learn how to take care of his body right?
Hammy strains aren’t about taking care of his body - they’re repeated tearing of the muscle fibers, with scar tissue forming each time. The link I posted above seemed clear that it’s the type of injury that only gets more likely to happen.
 
People are sleeping on how good a fantasy player Higgins is
Really?

Seems more like people are all-in on how good of a FF player, to the point of disregarding how unreliable he’s been over the years.
I know you're biased against him, but PPG monsters are what I look for. He's Nico that also that takes games off like him but you know which games he's taking off so you can sub someone else in. The fact that you can get him in the late 3rd/early 4th (or half the price in auction) is already a steep discount for his production.
That would be great if that’s how it actually worked. But it doesn’t. It’s not black & white he plays or he’s out. It’s the gray area in between that’s problematic for FF and can/will cost you wins.

The games he’s (Q) limited in practice then sheds the designation to play - ya gotta play him if he’s active, right? Yeah, then he jogs around in his pajamas for an hour while Chase goes ham.

Or the game where he pops the hammy in the 2nd quarter. That isn’t my bias - it’s what happens to players with recurring hamstring injuries. It’s happened to me with Higgins in games I coulda won. Games I needed to win. And sure, that can happen to any player at any time, but the dude has strained his hammies every year from 2019 - 2024, and possibly more. At some point optimism for a healthy/full season fades. And I’m fine with players like that who have his upside, but 3rd round doesn’t feel like a discount to me. And since I’ve done a dozen drafts and he hasn’t made it out of the 3rd, I’m considering that his ADP. He’s going around the same time as a bunch of dudes who don’t have recurring hamstring issues.

I totally understand the upside. It’s undeniable. It’s why I drafted him in a couple leagues last year. It’s a fun little lie I told myself every time I drafted him.

I’ll believe he can play a full season when I see it.
 

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