5 WR1 and 2 WR2 finishes in 9 games to end the season are pretty damn consistent for a guy being drafted as a WR2.
If you believe that’s replicable. His career numbers suggest otherwise.
Also in all 3 of the NFFC drafts & 1 of the BB’s I did he was drafted as that team’s WR1, after going RB/RB, RB/QB, RB/TE.
That said, I’d like him a lot more as a WR3 with 4th round draft capital than a WR2 with 3rd round draft capital.
Like I said, i get the upside argument. But having watched him more than I’d like to have over the span of his career, I feel like there’s a collective willingness to look past his warts and focus only on the sexy projections. IMO the injury risk should be baked into his price, and I’m struggling to see why it isn’t. And most of the reasons folks give for that is because of arguments like the one above, looking at a small-ish sample size and projecting it to the full season he’s never played, ignoring that he’s struggled with soft tissue injuries his entire career. And at his size, I don’t see those waning.
Seems like if we as a community are going to focus on Tee’s projected stats based on his past performance, we should be more cognizant of his likelihood of missing time based on the same, no? His injury history is a significantly greater sample size than that few game stretch of dominance as a receiver. If you believe in such analysis,
Draft Sharks puts him at 90% chance of injury. 90%!
He’s battled hamstring injuries since (at least, documented) 2019 in college, as well as 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, & again in 2024. That’s every year he’s been in the league+. Hamstring strains = tears to the muscle fibers to various degrees. Scar tissue develops, but from what I’ve read,
suffering multiple hamstring strains puts a player at significantly higher risk of hurting their hamstrings again.
Anyway, I’m sure he’ll be fine. This is all probably just being (admittedly) biased. I do think some of my concerns are valid though.