Have the 1.5 pick coming up in a few weeks in 1QB. Have been very hopeful that a good RB opportunity would fall to this spot for months. The plan for most of the offseason was to just take Judkins and hope for the best. I've been lukewarm on Tetairoa all offseason (at best), but I'm starting to see the wisdom drafting him as a safe-ish pick, if he gets there. Harvey feels like a stretch. I could talk myself into Kaleb Johnson, but just going with a top 10 drafted WR and hoping that he sort of lives up to his draft capital is starting to feel like the the too obvious play at this spot. I'd probably be praying for him to fall if I'm league that allows me to start 4 WRs. In a 2 + FLEX, it doesn't feel sexy but is probably still the most pragmatic.
Now that things have shaken out as they have. I feel it looks like this
Tier 1: Jeanty
Tier 2: Hampton
Tier 3: Henderson, McMillan, Egbuka
Wildcard: Hunter
Tier 4: Harvey, Johnson, Golden
Tier 5: Higgins, Burden, Warren, Loveland
Maybe?
This is very close to where I'm at with picks at #1, #5, #12, #15. I still consider Henderson a slam dunk @ 1.5 and have no expectations of him falling there. A lot of that is roster and league settings dependent, because I think it's very fair to put McMillan and Egbuka on that tier.
Hunter... I have been everywhere from eager to jump aboard at the #3 spot to way too much uncertainty to spend a top 5. With my 1.5 RB options not really materializing as hoped (so far), I'm on board with gambling on his upside at 1.5. Most of this offseason, I've considered Hunter a pretty easy decision over McMillan. Getting closer to showtime, and I suddenly really don't want to be in a position to make that decision. I believe Hunter is my choice if I have to make the pick today, but it's getting really hard to deny that I would bypass a lot of unique fantasy headaches by simply taking a top-10 drafted WR with great size. Needless to say, I have them on the same tier.
I like the inclusion of Egbuka. I have Godwin and the reality is that I'm not drafting McMillan to do much of anything for my team in season one. So drafting Egbuka and having an heir apparent for Godwin should make a ton of sense if I'm entertaining McMillan. However, I made a promise to myself that I'm not making "gut instinct" picks when the difference in draft capital for guys playing the same position is that far apart.
I can still make a case for Judkins hanging on to the back of a tier of Johnson and Harvey. I'd be lying if I didn't say I had thoughts of trying to drop down to around the 9/10 spot and just take Judkins or anyone else that falls while pocketing an asset. Foregoing the potential for a happy surprise at 1.5 while targeting a guy on Judkins path as a rookie is probably a really bad idea based on my league's history of questionable drafting. With that said, I'm going to have a real hard time passing up Judkins if he's there at 1.12.
I'm probably currently sitting at Burden-Golden-Higgins all pretty close and subject to reorder. Agree with Loveland and Warren on that plane in my non-TEP.