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WR Tyler Lockett, Free Agent (2 Viewers)

Question...doesn't having another good WR make things easier for Lockett...I like him a lot but I don't think he's ready to wear the bulls-eye from opposing defenses...and while Baldwin is good it's not like he's Antonio Brown or Beckham...
It's a target issue. Baldwin only got 8 targets a game from week 9 on last year. If Lockett's not the #1WR on Seattle he'll see less targets so it's not going to matter how efficient he is if he's getting less than 8 targets a game........ 

Strong WR1 tend to get 9+ targets a game.......

 
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Even if he does push for the #1WR in 2016 (which is not a given)......what are we looking at as a ceiling if Seattle doesn't throw much
Well, to start with, look at Lockett's splits last season:

  • Games 1-8: 28 targets, 20 receptions (71%), 253 receiving yards (12.7 ypr), 1 receiving TD, 13 receiving first downs, 1/1/0 rushing with 0 rushing first downs
  • Games 9-16: 41 targets, 31 receptions (76%), 411 receiving yards (13.3 ypr), 5 receiving TDs, 18 receiving first downs, 4/19/0 rushing with 1 rushing first down
Simply double his second half and you get 82 targets, 62/822/10 receiving, 8/38/0 rushing. That would have ranked as WR #31 in ppg last season (PPR), just in between Hilton and Cobb. In total points (PPR), it would have been WR #26.

But that isn't his ceiling. That is more a reasonable projection... some might argue whether 10 TDs is 'reasonable,' but even if we dropped 2 off, he could easily replace those with return TDs, which would count the same in many leagues. He had 2 return TDs last season that are not included in those splits above.

As for ceiling, even in the second half last season, he only averaged 5.1 targets per game. But he had 4 games in a row with 7 targets down the stretch. Suppose he averaged 7 targets for the season and scale his second half numbers accordingly. That yields: 112 targets, 85 receptions, 1126 receiving yards, 14 receiving TDs. Even with no rushing points and no return TDs, that would have ranked as WR #8 in total points last season (PPR).

Is that realistic? Probably not, but we are discussing ceiling. And just last season, another Seahawks WR had a similar line on even fewer targets, so the offense supports it.

Aside from that, I have seen analysis showing that there were a handful of times last season when Wilson just missed Lockett for deep TDs. Wilson is still improving, and so is Lockett. And Lockett is the deep threat, not Baldwin.

To summarize, a reasonable expectation for Lockett is probably around WR #30, but with plenty of upside from there. A reasonable view of his ceiling is a top 10 WR.

Like I said earlier in the thread, IMO he is a clear buy in dynasty, and he also seems like a good value with upside in redraft.

 
Question...doesn't having another good WR make things easier for Lockett...I like him a lot but I don't think he's ready to wear the bulls-eye from opposing defenses...and while Baldwin is good it's not like he's Antonio Brown or Beckham...
I saw a study somewhere last year that came to the conclusion that fantasy WR1's were more likely to have a strong compliment. I forget if it was FBG or somewhere else. 

 
Well, to start with, look at Lockett's splits last season:

  • Games 1-8: 28 targets, 20 receptions (71%), 253 receiving yards (12.7 ypr), 1 receiving TD, 13 receiving first downs, 1/1/0 rushing with 0 rushing first downs
  • Games 9-16: 41 targets, 31 receptions (76%), 411 receiving yards (13.3 ypr), 5 receiving TDs, 18 receiving first downs, 4/19/0 rushing with 1 rushing first down
Simply double his second half and you get 82 targets, 62/822/10 receiving, 8/38/0 rushing. That would have ranked as WR #31 in ppg last season (PPR), just in between Hilton and Cobb. In total points (PPR), it would have been WR #26.

But that isn't his ceiling. That is more a reasonable projection... some might argue whether 10 TDs is 'reasonable,' but even if we dropped 2 off, he could easily replace those with return TDs, which would count the same in many leagues. He had 2 return TDs last season that are not included in those splits above.

As for ceiling, even in the second half last season, he only averaged 5.1 targets per game. But he had 4 games in a row with 7 targets down the stretch. Suppose he averaged 7 targets for the season and scale his second half numbers accordingly. That yields: 112 targets, 85 receptions, 1126 receiving yards, 14 receiving TDs. Even with no rushing points and no return TDs, that would have ranked as WR #8 in total points last season (PPR).

Is that realistic? Probably not, but we are discussing ceiling. And just last season, another Seahawks WR had a similar line on even fewer targets, so the offense supports it.

Aside from that, I have seen analysis showing that there were a handful of times last season when Wilson just missed Lockett for deep TDs. Wilson is still improving, and so is Lockett. And Lockett is the deep threat, not Baldwin.

To summarize, a reasonable expectation for Lockett is probably around WR #30, but with plenty of upside from there. A reasonable view of his ceiling is a top 10 WR.

Like I said earlier in the thread, IMO he is a clear buy in dynasty, and he also seems like a good value with upside in redraft.
That stretch where he got 7 targets in a row was when Wilson was putting up GOAT QB numbers though.......I mean I traded for Lockett this year and I would be ecstatic if he put up 80/1100/14 but (and I know you said it's probably not reasonable) he's probably not a 1000 yard receiver this year. The thing is he will be untouchable if he continues to ascend this year.....and the Seahawks begin to turn the offense over to Wilson.

So if you're a believer in Lockett this is probably your last season to acquire him at anything remotely reasonable. Just know he's more WR3 than WR2 this year but with nowhere to go but up in the future.   

 
Anyone who loves Lockett but doesn't love his price should consider buying Sterling Shepard. Similar skill-set, similar talent, cheaper (I assume), and will be in a higher volume offense in a division with less defensive talent. Lower ceiling of course, due to OBJ.

 
Anyone who loves Lockett but doesn't love his price should consider buying Sterling Shepard. Similar skill-set, similar talent, cheaper (I assume), and will be in a higher volume offense in a division with less defensive talent. Lower ceiling of course, due to OBJ.
Lockett isn't that expensive in redraft Also, I don't think SS has anywhere close to the speed and big play ability. 

 
Lockett isn't that expensive in redraft Also, I don't think SS has anywhere close to the speed and big play ability. 
Talking dynasty, Lockett is already tough to buy in most leagues. I would give Lockett the edge in explosiveness and QB,  Shepard the edge in route-running and likely number of targets,  with his cheaper price being the deciding factor.

This isn't anything against Lockett--love him--just saying that anyone who likes Lockett's talent will likely be a fan of Shepard too.

 
Talking dynasty, Lockett is already tough to buy in most leagues. I would give Lockett the edge in explosiveness and QB,  Shepard the edge in route-running and likely number of targets,  with his cheaper price being the deciding factor.

This isn't anything against Lockett--love him--just saying that anyone who likes Lockett's talent will likely be a fan of Shepard too.
Yeah I hear you, just saying in redraft both have very reasonable value. After the Harmon write up, I don't think we can say SS is a better route runner than TY. However, he is in what seems to be a much better offense for immediate value. 

 
Talking dynasty, Lockett is already tough to buy in most leagues. I would give Lockett the edge in explosiveness and QB,  Shepard the edge in route-running and likely number of targets,  with his cheaper price being the deciding factor.

This isn't anything against Lockett--love him--just saying that anyone who likes Lockett's talent will likely be a fan of Shepard too.
Why would you give Shepard an edge in route running? Lockett is known as a superb route runner.

 
Like Shepard a lot as well. Don't think he has the ceiling Lockett does. Like if hypothetically they both became their teams #1 due to injury this year I'd have Lockett>Shepard. 

 
Just Win Baby said:
double his second half and you get 82 targets, 62/822/10 receiving, 8/38/0 rushing
Not only is 10 unreasonable, 8 is unreasonable IMO.  I don't think he's a player who's going to average a TD every 8th catch in the long run.

Having said... as someone who owns Lockett a bunch he's suddenly pretty hot.

 
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Not only is 10 unreasonable, 8 is unreasonable IMO.  I don't think he's a player who's going to average a TD every 8th catch in the long run.

Having said... as someone who owns Lockett a bunch he's suddenly pretty hot.
So what do you expect, then? That a guy who had 6 receiving TDs (7 if you count the postseason) as a rookie will not score more TDs going forward as his targets go up?

If Wilson throws 35 TDs, how would you distribute them?

 
Believe me, I hope you're right on this one.  A sophomore season like that would be great for me.  

I think he might still catch 8 but it'd take 80 receptions to do it.  And I think that's unlikely.  I also don't think Wilson will continue at a 7% TD rate, so something more like 30-32 TDs might make more sense.  9 for Baldwin, 7 for Lockett, other 14 spread out maybe?

 
Believe me, I hope you're right on this one.  A sophomore season like that would be great for me.  

I think he might still catch 8 but it'd take 80 receptions to do it.  And I think that's unlikely.  I also don't think Wilson will continue at a 7% TD rate, so something more like 30-32 TDs might make more sense.  9 for Baldwin, 7 for Lockett, other 14 spread out maybe?
I agree with these if they throw at the same rate they have been. Even if that does happen Lockett could overtake Baldwin this season. So there's a possible outcome that looks like Lockett 9, Baldwin 7, 14 spread out to others......

There's some indicators that are showing there is a good chance Lockett's better.

 
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It is always difficult to project for rookie players because I usually like to ignore rookie stats when projecting players whenever possible. What a player does as a rookie does not usually reflect very well what they will do on average for the rest of their career. If a player does do well as a rookie, I expect that player to be able to build on that as they are on the field more and used more frequently. Most NFL players improve in their second seasons if they were effective at times as rookies.

Seahawks offense

2015 1035 plays 489 passing attempts 500 rushing attempts.
2014 1021 plays 454 passing attempts 525 rushing attempts.
2013  973 plays 420 passing attempts 509 rushing attempts.

3 year average 1009 plays 454 passing attempts 511 rushing attempts.

Russell Wilson has averaged about 100 rushing attempts over his first four seasons. His passing attempts have increased by 7% in 2014 and 9% over the last 2 seasons. It is possible his total passing attempts increases again, now in his fifth season.  I am not sure by how much, but I wont be surprised if Wilson throws the ball over 500 times this season.

Looking at the game logs, it should be no surprise that Lockets use in the offense was erratic. He began with 4 targets in game one, then only one and two targets the next 2 games. In game 4 and 5 he had 5 targets, then two targets, then five and four targets, one, five, three for the 1st 11 games.

This averages out to 3 targets/game.

In the last 5 games of the regular season Lockett had 32 targets which was 6.4 targets/game. His targets doubled from the first 11 games.

In the playoffs Lockett had 9 targets in two games. So adding those to the last 5 games would be 41 targets over 7 games which is 5.9 targets per game.

Lockett had 664 offensive snaps as a rookie. This was the 3rd most snaps for WR. I would expect this to go up somewhat. Looking at 2014 Baldwin had almost 900 offensive snaps and Kearse had close to 800. If Lockett does play more than Kearse in 2016 I could see him having 800 offensive snaps.

Lockett had .104 targets per snap for the season.
Lockett had .134 targets per snap in the last 5 games.
Lockett had .131 targets per snap in the last 7 games.
Graham had .130 targets per snap in the first 11 games.
Baldwin .129 targets per snap for the season.
Kearse .088 targets per snap for the season.

There is a definite split here when Graham was healthy, Lockett was not getting as many snaps or targets as he did in the last 7 games of the season when Graham was out.If Graham does return to full health this could have some impact on Locketts opportunity in terms of snaps and targets. Graham was the most targeted player on the Seahawks before he was injured. Graham was on pace for 108 targets before he was injured.

Lockett actually gets the most targets/snap after Graham was injured. Lockett was also more experienced by this time as well, and perhaps ready to be involved more with the offense by this time. Lockett had 350 offensive snaps over the first 11 games which was 31.8/game. In the last 7 games Lockett has 314 offensive snaps which was 44.9/game.

If Lockett were to get 800 offensive snaps and maintained .131 targets per snap this would be 105 targets over the season.

Graham accounted for 22.8% of Wilsons targets for the first 11 games.
Baldwin accounted for 21.1% of Wilsons passing attempts last season.
Lockett accounted for 14.3% of Wilsons passing attempts last season.
Lockett accounted for 20.3% of Wilsons passing attempts for the last 5 games.
Lockett accounted for 17.7% of Wilsons passing attempts for the last 7 games.

If Wilson throws the ball 500 times and Lockett has a market share of 20% of the targets, this would be 100 targets. At 18% this would be 90 targets.

Russell Wilson first 11 games threw 325 times. 29.55/game.
Russell Wilson last 5 games threw 158 times. 31.6/game.
Russell Wilson last 7 games threw 232 times. 33.14/game.

The last game was Wilsons highest of the season in a loss against Carolina. While they certainly do not want Wilson throwing 50 times a game, I could pretty easily see him throwing the ball 32 times a game. Pete Carrol indicated that they intend to play more like the second half of the season, than how they were in the beginning. Which suggests passing the ball slightly more frequently. At 32 pass attempts/game he would throw 512 times.

Here are Locketts offensive snaps by game after Graham was injured.

Game 12 48
Game 13 38
Game 14 46
Game 15 55 1st and only time Lockett has more snaps than Kearse and Baldwin
Game 16 50
Game 17 39
Game 18 38

It does seem like the Seahawks phased Lockett out of the offense somewhat in the playoffs. 800 offensive snaps would be averaging 50 per game.

I do think how healthy Graham is in 2016 will be related to how many snaps Lockett gets, but Lockett may be used outside a bit more, and be used with Graham more frequently than he was early on last season.

Lockett had a 73.9% catch rate as a rookie, which is pretty outstanding. If he maintains that, he should be getting over 70 receptions on 100 targets.

At 13 yards per target Lockett should get 910 yards, but if the receptions are higher, he should cross the 1k yard mark in 2016.

I do think there is upside for Lockett to get more targets than 100 if Wilson does throw the ball a bit more, for example if his passing attempts rose to 540 or something, then Lockett should pick up some more targets along with that. This will depend a great deal on how much the Seahawks run the ball. If their young RB group isn't healthy enough or up to the task, then Wilson might be throwing the ball a bit more.

Wilson spreads the ball around. So even with the possibility of increased pass attempts, I don't think Lockett gets more than a 25% share, and even that seems optimistic. If Graham is healthy I doubt Lockett will have much more than 20%. I do think 20% is possible, even if Graham is also getting 23% to 25%

So I think Locketts targets are capped at around 120 for 2016. At 120 at a 70% catch rate that is 84 receptions though, so being capped at 120 still offers some upside for good production. 84 x 13 = 1092 yards.

Lockett had 5 rushing attempts as a rookie. I could see him adding some additional value there as they may let him run 10-15 times this year. They had Percy Harvin run 11 times in 5 games and 14 times in 6 games including the playoff game. 2.2 to 2.3/game. Not saying Lockett is Percy Harvin, but I could see them having Lockett run the ball once a game. Theres a few more yards there.

 
If Lockett lines up outside more it will likely increase his ypc. Not to mention I think he averaged 15+ ypc the last 7 games.....

Let his catch rate dip a little because of the deeper targets, raise his ypc to 14 (which isn't out of the question because he's a burner and gets open deep) and you're looking at 

73-1029

The TD's are really hard to predict but 5-8 seems reasonable with a return TD or two thrown in there. 

 
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"We do everything we can think of with him," Carroll said. "There's nothing we hold back. He's smart enough, sharp enough, works hard at it. He is one of the hardest working guys we've ever had in the program, most consistent guy we've ever had. Comes in early, staying late and pushing to work on the things that he wants to improve at. He's been awesome."
Reminds me of this.

 
The hype is so out-of-control with this guy.  I had a couple owners hard-selling me on him in dynasty, but he's just way too over-priced at this point.  I hope he has a great season because I co-manage a team where he can be kept with an 11th round pick, but at his current ADP he's just got way too much room to bust.

 
Braktastic said:
The hype is so out-of-control with this guy.  I had a couple owners hard-selling me on him in dynasty, but he's just way too over-priced at this point.  I hope he has a great season because I co-manage a team where he can be kept with an 11th round pick, but at his current ADP he's just got way too much room to bust.
Man, I wanted to not buy into the hype... I think Baldwin is underrated... they just paid Kearse some pretty decent money... Graham is supposedly on pace to be back.... but Matt Harmon is on board with Lockett. I will not bet against Matt Harmon.

I don't think Lockett will catch passes at the same rate as last year so he'll need more targets, but I think Rawls is way overhyped and their run blocking won't be very good. This team is going to have to pass. Unfortunately for Seattle, their pass blocking will be pretty bad so Wilson will be running for his life but Lockett's skill set should fit well with that. I'd like to have him on my team, but I'm not sure I can justify reaching very far for him. If I'm wrong and they throw the ball less than 500 times next year, I'll probably wish I had just taken John Brown in the 7th instead.

 
their run blocking won't be very good
Not really on point for this thread, but I found this article quite interesting, and it seems to contradict your assertion here: Why Seattle is the NFL’s best at the zone read. From the article:

Their 128 attempts were the second-most in the league, and they averaged 5.27 yards on those carries (league average on the zone read was 4.33). On their 324 other designed runs, the Seahawks averaged a paltry 4.22 yards per carry. So, how does a team go from an average rushing squad to one of the best in the league on the backs of a single run play? Let’s take a look in this week’s installment in the “Teaching Tape” series.

The Seahawks’ offensive line, more than any I’ve seen, doesn’t really seem to care if it can sustain blocks. When you hear analysts say that offensive line coach Tom Cable couldn’t care less about technique coming out of college and simply wants athletes to work with, this is why. It doesn’t take a great offensive line (and the Seahawks definitely do not have one) to be successful. That’s the beauty of the play.


Unfortunately for Seattle, their pass blocking will be pretty bad so Wilson will be running for his life
But that is no different than last year.

 
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Not really on point for this thread, but I found this article quite interesting, and it seems to contradict your assertion here: Why Seattle is the NFL’s best at the zone read. From the article:

But that is no different than last year.
Where I was going with that is the thought that they will HAVE to pass to move the ball.

And I agree Wilson was running for his life last year, too. I was saying that plays into Lockett's strengths. The more I'm reading, the more I'm talking myself into buying the hype on this guy.

As for Seattle run blocking, I haven't done much research on OL other than reading this: http://subscribers.footballguys.com/apps/article.php?article=2016OLPreseasonRankings

 
There seem to be a lot of contradictory opinions on Lockett among the FF pundits... what is his dynasty value? FBGs have him at WR25, 28, 29, 29, and 41, I've seen him both higher and lower elsewhere.

Where does Lockett fall vs this years rookies? What pick area next year is a fair price?

 
There seem to be a lot of contradictory opinions on Lockett among the FF pundits... what is his dynasty value? FBGs have him at WR25, 28, 29, 29, and 41, I've seen him both higher and lower elsewhere.

Where does Lockett fall vs this years rookies? What pick area next year is a fair price?
It would probably cost you a top-5 2017 draft pick to get a deal done at this point.

 
I think he's a WR1 in the making.....I've been on board since his combine though....so he's untradable because nobody values him that much right now.....

 
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The Seattle Times reports there's been consistent "buzz" that Tyler Lockett has made "significant strides," and "could become an even bigger factor in the offense in 2016."
Lockett showed rare dynamism as a rookie, and apparently kept his foot on the gas pedal this offseason. Lockett's mouthwatering upside and playmaking ability were evident to anyone who watched him play a down as a rookie, but the presence of Doug Baldwin and Jermaine Kearse are still a concern for his 2016 fantasy prospects. It's possible Lockett bangs down the door to WR2 value, but boom-or-bust WR3/4 status remains most likely.

 
 
Source: Seattle Times 
Jul 14 - 4:14 PM

 
Between best ball drafts and now managed teams, I have Lockett on. Ore rosters than any other player. But I'm ok doing that with a guy I'm getting 7th round. To the John Brown point, I've rarely seen Lockett go before him. He's usually gone in the 6th.

 
For reference, I just sold Lockett in dynasty.

Sent him and Julius Thomas and 4 picks (1.11, 2.11, 2017 1st and 2nd) for pick 1.1.

That might be more about how I feel about Zeke than about how I feel about Lockett though.

 
For reference, I just sold Lockett in dynasty.

Sent him and Julius Thomas and 4 picks (1.11, 2.11, 2017 1st and 2nd) for pick 1.1.

That might be more about how I feel about Zeke than about how I feel about Lockett though.
What sap took that deal! What a marroon! What a nimcowpoop!

 
Lockett is a really nice player. It would take something big like what HULK did for me to move him. Seems like it could work out well for both parties.

I prefer the Elliot side myself in a vacuum. But Lockett is a good enough piece along with the other stuff that I can see the other side of it as well.

 
There seem to be a lot of contradictory opinions on Lockett among the FF pundits... what is his dynasty value? FBGs have him at WR25, 28, 29, 29, and 41, I've seen him both higher and lower elsewhere.

Where does Lockett fall vs this years rookies? What pick area next year is a fair price?
He seems to be right around that 1.4 range when I have tried to buy him.

 
 

ESPN's Sheil Kapadia reports it is "clear" the Seahawks will get Tyler Lockett "consistent touches" this season.
Despite a solid 51/664/6 line for Lockett as a rookie, Kapadia is the latest in a long line of reporters who expect him to take a step forward this year. Even with his ADP on the rise, Lockett remains a great, high-upside pick in the middle rounds.

 
 
Source: ESPN 
Aug 8 - 11:03 AM

 
What kind of upside would be reasonable to project for Locket this season?  I see him on a lot of peoples list of high upside WR3's. 

 
Ceiling? Someone broke it down really good itt a couple weeks ago. The problem is the Seahawks aren't a heavy passing team but Wilson has thrown more the last couple years. If you figure in a modest increase in passes, an increase in targets, and an increase in YPC from Lockett.......80-1100-9 is a realistic ceiling. With TD's being the hardest thing to predict because they fluctuate so much.

 
Ceiling? Someone broke it down really good itt a couple weeks ago. The problem is the Seahawks aren't a heavy passing team but Wilson has thrown more the last couple years. If you figure in a modest increase in passes, an increase in targets, and an increase in YPC from Lockett.......80-1100-9 is a realistic ceiling. With TD's being the hardest thing to predict because they fluctuate so much.
Thanks.  So solid WR2 upside.  

 
What kind of upside would be reasonable to project for Locket this season?  I see him on a lot of peoples list of high upside WR3's. 
Read the last few pages of the thread as this is mostly what the posts are focused on.

WR 3 numbers seems pretty locked in as a floor. WR 2 numbers are the most likely scenario. WR 1 numbers are the upside for him in a best case scenario. 

 
Read the last few pages of the thread as this is mostly what the posts are focused on.

WR 3 numbers seems pretty locked in as a floor. WR 2 numbers are the most likely scenario. WR 1 numbers are the upside for him in a best case scenario. 
I should have read higher before posting I suppose.  You had a nice write up Biabeakable.  I think I agree with almost all of it.  

 
Has there been any talk out of Seattle about how Locketts expanded role will affect his return duties? He was a top 20 non QB in my return yards league, but that was based on KR and PR duties. I could see them going with just PR since that's less risky injury wise. 

 

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