WR Tyreek Hill, MIA (1 Viewer)

[TheDirtyWord]

I get people's reservations because of Tyreek's age, the dependence Tua's health, and the awful pass protection last year. But there is a path back to eliteness, which would make him a league winner given his current ADP of 25 and WR12. Can't totally say for sure but I didn't really see him losing a step last year. I mostly saw a dumpster fire of an offense and offensive line. Also, Tyreek lost 15 lbs to get faster during the offseason. Yeah, the offensive line has to improve but Patrick Paul has looked great in camp, and there is some hope there.

In general, I love to buy low on talented players like Tyreek, Kelce, and Rhamondre, who all lost weight this offseason BTW, and all have the chance to bounce back substantially. Wasn't high on Deebo initially, but he reportedly got in better shape too, although he always looks puffy to me because he's big boned....

Recency bias creates great value on draft day.

True, but here's what scares me.

Last year, for the first time under McDaniel...they showed some late season chops. Improving from 2-6 to 8-8. Yet in Game 17, Tyreek pulled the 'unavailable' stunt. Probably due in part to his lack of use/targets. So when I hear about him having to re-earn trust again in that locker room, that doesn't get earned in August.

I mean, McDaniel is no longer the coaching darling he was upon first arrival - he's on the hot seat now. I can't say if there's bad blood for sure between McDaniel/Hill...but the 'knock out McDaniel' clip and some of his continuing antics feel like there's an erosion of trust that's occurring between both.

Just feel like this is a situation where things 'have to go right' or else it could devolve into something you just don't want to have to deal with.

 

[SoBeDad]

Recency bias creates great value on draft day.

Totally agree.

But fyi he did miss practice today with an undisclosed injury per multiple reports. Severity unknown.

Lack of details always makes me uneasy, admittedly especially with him.

Apparently ok, as he boards the flight to Chicago.

From  Barry Jackson:
NEW: Tyreek Hill misses practice with injury but accompanies teamcheerfully to Chicago, as chronicled in upbeat Dolphins video.

I doubt if there's a return to 2022 or 2023 Cheetah as teams adjusted in 2024, and McDaniel continues to use short passes to protect Tua. Upside is 1200 yards and 10 TDs, similar to his last year in KC, only 11.2 ypc as Mahomes took what teams gave.

 

[BlackCrowes]

if he falls to the mid-3rd, i'll bite. not before. lot of drama.

 

[RaidersAreOne]

I kinda feel people are sleeping on Hill these days. I think he is a major bounce back candidate.

 

[TheWinz]

Dolphins WR Tyreek Hill missed practice Wednesday with an undisclosed injury.

I've never heard of that body part. Where is the undisclosed located?

 

[Kevrunner]

Nice to see Tyreek on the flight to Chicago after missing practice today. He is wearing a Tua jersey boarding the plane, for some reason, it made me laugh.

Tyreek Getting on Plane Today

 

[SoBeDad]

Dolphins WR Tyreek Hill missed practice Wednesday with an undisclosed injury.

I've never heard of that body part. Where is the undisclosed located?

The secrecy regarding player injuries before the season starts is annoying. I guess it's not required until game week 1. It could give teams a competitive disadvantage if they disclosed player injuries when negotiating with free agents. Tyreek has been tough as a Dolphin, fighting through a wrist injury last season ... tough until the 2nd half of game 17 when he quit.

 

[IHEARTFF]

Dolphins WR Tyreek Hill missed practice Wednesday with an undisclosed injury.

I've never heard of that body part. Where is the undisclosed located?

Where the sun doesn’t shine

 

[warpig33]

Dolphins WR Tyreek Hill missed practice Wednesday with an undisclosed injury.

I've never heard of that body part. Where is the undisclosed located?

Is that a PC way of saying "Nether region"?

 

[pinkstapler]

Dolphins WR Tyreek Hill missed practice Wednesday with an undisclosed injury.

I've never heard of that body part. Where is the undisclosed located?

Is that a PC way of saying "Nether region"?

I believe the medical term is perineum

 

[warpig33]

Dolphins WR Tyreek Hill missed practice Wednesday with an undisclosed injury.

I've never heard of that body part. Where is the undisclosed located?

Is that a PC way of saying "Nether region"?

I believe the medical term is perineum

"Butt hurt"

 

[King of the Jungle]

This guy is headed to “more trouble than worth” area. The Phins are not winning the SB this year imo, they should be unloading him while they can get something for him.

 

[pinkstapler]

This guy is headed to “more trouble than worth” area. The Phins are not winning the SB this year imo, they should be unloading him while they can get something for him.

Probably won't make a lot of friends in his personal thread with this statement, but the fact is he showed major decline in key aspects of his game last season. If people want to attribute that to all external factors and not at all to Hill himself, I won't fight them on it. But regardless of the reason, the numbers show a major decline. I don't think there is much of a trade market for him in the league at a price point the Dolphins will be willing to accept. Hill also antagonizing his coach and throwing his teammates under the bus in the media isn't helping; even if some peoples opinion is they are valid critiques. It's not something organizations like.

I think this is one of those times where real NFL football will correlate well to fantasy football; the potential upside of Hill vs. his current trade value make him an obvious hold at this point for both fantasy owners and the Dolphins.

 

[menobrown]

His undisclosed injury is an oblique injury that got exacerbated. Seem minor but he's working off to the side in the joint practice with the Bears.

 

[Grahamburn]

Was stuck with Hill last year in a league and it killed me.

I know targets are now up for grabs with J. Smith gone, but the whole problem last year was a) Tua getting the ball out quick, and b) never going down the field.

Has there been any indication this will change?

If anything, those free targets are probably going to D. Achane.

I'm staying away.

How’d you get stuck with him?

 

[kyoun1e]

Was stuck with Hill last year in a league and it killed me.

I know targets are now up for grabs with J. Smith gone, but the whole problem last year was a) Tua getting the ball out quick, and b) never going down the field.

Has there been any indication this will change?

If anything, those free targets are probably going to D. Achane.

I'm staying away.

How’d you get stuck with him?

Maybe that's not the right word.

He was a high first round pick that certainly didn't deliver value, was difficult to sit understanding other options, and was difficult to trade because you were going to get 50-75 cents on the dollar for him.

So yeah, maybe stuck was the right word.

 

[Grahamburn]

Was stuck with Hill last year in a league and it killed me.

I know targets are now up for grabs with J. Smith gone, but the whole problem last year was a) Tua getting the ball out quick, and b) never going down the field.

Has there been any indication this will change?

If anything, those free targets are probably going to D. Achane.

I'm staying away.

How’d you get stuck with him?

Maybe that's not the right word.

He was a high first round pick that certainly didn't deliver value, was difficult to sit understanding other options, and was difficult to trade because you were going to get 50-75 cents on the dollar for him.

So yeah, maybe stuck was the right word.

It was tongue in cheek. If you drafted him you got burned. He’s probably value this year though because of that.

I love bounce back potential league winner types.

Can’t stand Hill but if he’s a late 3rd/early 4th? Yeah.

 

[kyoun1e]

Was stuck with Hill last year in a league and it killed me.

I know targets are now up for grabs with J. Smith gone, but the whole problem last year was a) Tua getting the ball out quick, and b) never going down the field.

Has there been any indication this will change?

If anything, those free targets are probably going to D. Achane.

I'm staying away.

How’d you get stuck with him?

Maybe that's not the right word.

He was a high first round pick that certainly didn't deliver value, was difficult to sit understanding other options, and was difficult to trade because you were going to get 50-75 cents on the dollar for him.

So yeah, maybe stuck was the right word.

It was tongue in cheek. If you drafted him you got burned. He’s probably value this year though because of that.

I love bounce back potential league winner types.

Can’t stand Hill but if he’s a late 3rd/early 4th? Yeah.

I suppose if he was there in the third I'd consider, but I'm probably staying away.

I don't see what's changed in that offense. The bombs away days are over. It's all about Tua getting the ball out quick. I know J. Smith is gone, but I bet Achane benefits most (who I am targeting big time).

I have a feeling Miami could be a bit of a dumpster fire this year.

 

[SanDawg]

Been about 10 days since any thoughts or updates on Hill. Any practice reports? Guys still out with an oblique? Mending any fences or still pushing for a trade?

 

[Ministry of Pain]

Been about 10 days since any thoughts or updates on Hill. Any practice reports? Guys still out with an oblique? Mending any fences or still pushing for a trade?

Dolphins-Jags Joint Practice: Tyreek Hill’s potential return and Ollie Gordon II’s push for RB2 highlight the top storylines on offense

The Dolphins host the Jags for a joint practice session and there's plenty to talk about regarding Miami's offense.

atozsports.com

 

[Ilov80s]

I think Tyreek is done and we all need to stay away. Yes I know how sick he was. But he’s not the same, the offense isn’t the same. Don’t let the allure of the past and a perceived value temp you. If it’s too good to be true than it is.

 

[King of the Jungle]

I think Tyreek is done and we all need to stay away. Yes I know how sick he was. But he’s not the same, the offense isn’t the same. Don’t let the allure of the past and a perceived value temp you. If it’s too good to be true than it is.

In order for him to be meet ADP, the MIA offense needs to hurdle over hurdles. Oline needs to be better than expected, Tua needs to stay healthy, and aging Hill needs to stay healthy/out of trouble. Too many hurdles for me personally unless he falls well past ADP. I give MIA a higher implosion rate than most teams, not a lot of room for error.

 

[Ilov80s]

I think Tyreek is done and we all need to stay away. Yes I know how sick he was. But he’s not the same, the offense isn’t the same. Don’t let the allure of the past and a perceived value temp you. If it’s too good to be true than it is.

In order for him to be meet ADP, the MIA offense needs to hurdle over hurdles. Oline needs to be better than expected, Tua needs to stay healthy, and aging Hill needs to stay healthy/out of trouble. Too many hurdles for me personally unless he falls well past ADP. I give MIA a higher implosion rate than most teams, not a lot of room for error.

Yep. I know it’s so tempting to look and see he had 1700 yards two years ago and is available round 2 or 3 but the play has declined, the injuries have started, the QB has struggled, the offense isn’t working. There’s no positive signs to indicate those will reverse. Very much the opposite.

 

[FarFromHome]

I think Tyreek is done and we all need to stay away. Yes I know how sick he was. But he’s not the same, the offense isn’t the same. Don’t let the allure of the past and a perceived value temp you. If it’s too good to be true than it is.

Damn. Talk about Debbie Downer. Ha ha. I loved and currently still love my boy Hill. I'm not throwing the towel in on him just yet. Having said that, so much has to do be right for Hill to get his. The odds are against it. He went 3rd round in League Uno. I'm the biggest Hill guy and that's a little steep for me. I still believe!!!

 

[Ilov80s]

I think Tyreek is done and we all need to stay away. Yes I know how sick he was. But he’s not the same, the offense isn’t the same. Don’t let the allure of the past and a perceived value temp you. If it’s too good to be true than it is.

Damn. Talk about Debbie Downer. Ha ha. I loved and currently still love my boy Hill. I'm not throwing the towel in on him just yet. Having said that, so much has to do be right for Hill to get his. The odds are against it. He went 3rd round in League Uno. I'm the biggest Hill guy and that's a little steep for me. I still believe!!!

I was a big believer and bought in for dynasty when he got to Miami but early last season I had to cut bait and take a 1st for him.

 

[ffmail4me]

Can’t believe he’s going that early. I took him at 9.11 in a PPR Dynasty SF Best Ball league this Spring. At that price Infeel great but a 3rd round pick? No way

 

[FarFromHome]

How are we valueing him in trade? What would it take for Hill owners to move him? I was just offered Garrett Wilson and Courtland Sutton in half ppr. Hmmm

 

[Instinctive]

I just finished first pass Miami projections. Basically as an offense expecting better than last year but worse than the two years prior. For the Hill/Achane/Waddle trio, I think it's more concentrated than ever, which could offset some efficiency loss.

Hill I have at 30% target share - 176 targets for 123/1619/13

That feels a little high, but it's fewer passes than the garbage last year, I assume equal health for everyone (so you could discount this if you assume Tua missing time)...and there's not much else out there. I gave Waddle 24% and Achane 18%. I can't decide what to do, which means there's probably value. Zig when people zag and all. But it seems like it could also be a disaster.

 

[bluemanfoo]

Zig when people zag and all. But it seems like it could also be a disaster.

Tyreek and McCaffrey have the most league winning and league losing potential. Anyone who has the balls to reach for both is just going for it.

 

[SanDawg]

How are we valueing him in trade? What would it take for Hill owners to move him? I was just offered Garrett Wilson and Courtland Sutton in half ppr. Hmmm

Great question. In my 5 man keeper league I have been offered him and 1.6 for McConkey. Have not pulled the trigger yet.

 

[Raging weasel]

How are we valueing him in trade? What would it take for Hill owners to move him? I was just offered Garrett Wilson and Courtland Sutton in half ppr. Hmmm

I'm a Hill owner and would take that offer. Wilson is in a bad spot this year but is younger so have them rated pretty close which makes it an easy yes getting Sutton too.

 

[pinkstapler]

I just finished first pass Miami projections. Basically as an offense expecting better than last year but worse than the two years prior. For the Hill/Achane/Waddle trio, I think it's more concentrated than ever, which could offset some efficiency loss.

Hill I have at 30% target share - 176 targets for 123/1619/13

That feels a little high, but it's fewer passes than the garbage last year, I assume equal health for everyone (so you could discount this if you assume Tua missing time)...and there's not much else out there. I gave Waddle 24% and Achane 18%. I can't decide what to do, which means there's probably value. Zig when people zag and all. But it seems like it could also be a disaster.

You have a process and history and data, where as all I have is my gut. But man would my gut be laying down 4-5 units on the under of that projection lol. Unfortunately, sports books currently have his o/u at 975. So around 650 yards less than you, and a much less tempting bet.

 

[Instinctive]

I just finished first pass Miami projections. Basically as an offense expecting better than last year but worse than the two years prior. For the Hill/Achane/Waddle trio, I think it's more concentrated than ever, which could offset some efficiency loss.

Hill I have at 30% target share - 176 targets for 123/1619/13

That feels a little high, but it's fewer passes than the garbage last year, I assume equal health for everyone (so you could discount this if you assume Tua missing time)...and there's not much else out there. I gave Waddle 24% and Achane 18%. I can't decide what to do, which means there's probably value. Zig when people zag and all. But it seems like it could also be a disaster.

You have a process and history and data, where as all I have is my gut. But man would my gut be laying down 4-5 units on the under of that projection lol. Unfortunately, sports books currently have his o/u at 975. So around 650 yards less than you, and a much less tempting bet.

I mean something has to happen to go that low.

Let's take his yards per target allllll the way down to 7.8, his lowest of the past 5 years (equal to last year). You get 1372 yards.

So let's keep that and take his target share down from 30% to 21%, which is last year. Now you're at 961 yards.

I suppose what you're asking then (the general you) is whether you think last year is who he is now (and expect the QB and OL situations to be just as injury riddled and bad) or if you're expecting any sort of bounce back. I amped up the target share to the 30% range, which is because I think they have nothing outside of him waddle and achane (e.g., Jonnu is gone). I don't think they can really run the ball that well so they're gonna pass a LOT. And I jumped him to 9.2 YPT because I think he was hurt last year.

So there are lots of reasons he could be way lower. Like I said, it feels a little high for me as a first pass. If I have to guess, I'll probably end up in the high 8s YPT and the high 20s target share when I finish all teams and do some anomaly hunting.

 

[efactor]

Zig when people zag and all. But it seems like it could also be a disaster.

Tyreek and McCaffrey have the most league winning and league losing potential. Anyone who has the balls to reach for both is just going for it.

Ha. I did 3 FFPC dynasty startups and have the CMC/Hill combo in two of them. Fortunately, the rest of my team is in good shape age wise. The values in the mid 5th and late 6th were just too much for me to pass up.

Have a couple redrafts coming up and probably will have shares of them there too. In it to win it

 

[pinkstapler]

I just finished first pass Miami projections. Basically as an offense expecting better than last year but worse than the two years prior. For the Hill/Achane/Waddle trio, I think it's more concentrated than ever, which could offset some efficiency loss.

Hill I have at 30% target share - 176 targets for 123/1619/13

That feels a little high, but it's fewer passes than the garbage last year, I assume equal health for everyone (so you could discount this if you assume Tua missing time)...and there's not much else out there. I gave Waddle 24% and Achane 18%. I can't decide what to do, which means there's probably value. Zig when people zag and all. But it seems like it could also be a disaster.

You have a process and history and data, where as all I have is my gut. But man would my gut be laying down 4-5 units on the under of that projection lol. Unfortunately, sports books currently have his o/u at 975. So around 650 yards less than you, and a much less tempting bet.

I mean something has to happen to go that low.

Let's take his yards per target allllll the way down to 7.8, his lowest of the past 5 years (equal to last year). You get 1372 yards.

So let's keep that and take his target share down from 30% to 21%, which is last year. Now you're at 961 yards.

I suppose what you're asking then (the general you) is whether you think last year is who he is now (and expect the QB and OL situations to be just as injury riddled and bad) or if you're expecting any sort of bounce back. I amped up the target share to the 30% range, which is because I think they have nothing outside of him waddle and achane (e.g., Jonnu is gone). I don't think they can really run the ball that well so they're gonna pass a LOT. And I jumped him to 9.2 YPT because I think he was hurt last year.

So there are lots of reasons he could be way lower. Like I said, it feels a little high for me as a first pass. If I have to guess, I'll probably end up in the high 8s YPT and the high 20s target share when I finish all teams and do some anomaly hunting.

Yeah I think most of your numbers are reasonable and feels like Vegas is 100% putting "something bad happens" into their algorithm to wind up at 975. I can't avoid baking in what my eyes told me last year on Hill IMO cresting his peak and talent wise being on the down slope of his career; but if Tua stays healthy and Achane misses no (or very little) time to start the season, I have a hard time not putting Tyreek around ~1300 yards.

I think his YPT gets some regression to the mean, but not back to his pushing for 2k yards year. I also think Waddle eats into that target share a bit; probably not a knock down to 21% , but closer to that than 30%. However, that drop for Hill I see primarily because (some dynasty ownership bias coming in hot here lol), I also think they start working Malik Washinton into the rotation more. They have to know their days with Hill are numbered, so especially if they don't get out to a hot start and realize they aren't pushing for a SB, think they try to see what they really have in Malik to measure where they need to invest in the 2025 offseason.

And Waller is a coin flip. he could bust out and account for practically nothing in that offense and I wouldn't be surprised. He could also find the last bit of gas left in his tank and have close to a Jonnu season and I wouldn't really be surprised either though; especially if injuries hit/line stinks (as I think that was a primary driver of Jonnu doing what he did last season, to his fantasy owners dismay). Just don't think McDaniel was thinking in August of last year "Man I love Tyreek, Waddle, and Achane; but what I really need to do is focus the offense around our 29 year old journeyman TE" haha.

 

[SanDawg]

Zig when people zag and all. But it seems like it could also be a disaster.

Tyreek and McCaffrey have the most league winning and league losing potential. Anyone who has the balls to reach for both is just going for it.

Ha. I did 3 FFPC dynasty startups and have the CMC/Hill combo in two of them. Fortunately, the rest of my team is in good shape age wise. The values in the mid 5th and late 6th were just too much for me to pass up.

Have a couple redrafts coming up and probably will have shares of them there too. In it to win it

In a main league of mine I have this trifecta....CMC, Hill, Rice....yeah buddy

 

[gump]

4.3 in my big $ 10-team redraft last night.

 

[VikingFrog]

4.3 in my big $ 10-team redraft last night.

I was completely surprised to get him at 4.12/5.1 in my 12 team long standing league last week…. To pair with J Chase as my second WR off the board.

I’m not even that high on him or the dolphins this year, but the dream of return to form was too much to pass up.

There were some WRs that went before him that I never would have imagined. Everyone in my league is either really smart or scared away by him turning into a pumpkin last year when Tua went down.

 

[Terpman22]

So, is this guy going to be on the roster week 1?

 

[BlackCrowes]

So, is this guy going to be on the roster week 1?

not mine

 

[menobrown]

So, is this guy going to be on the roster week 1?

I'm curious why you think this is in question?

The negative narrative around him does not seem in sync to me with the words and vibe I'm hearing out of McDaniels and Miami.