RC94
Footballguy
bumpYeah everytime I see it bumped, I think "Oh no..."
That feeling is usually reserved for retired players. This guy is still in the NFL yet I just assume it's off-the-field news.
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WR Tyreek Hill, MIA (7 Viewers)
- Thread starter amnesiac
- Start date
FarFromHome
Footballguy
Maybe he struggled all year cause that screw was loose? Thank you. Thank you. I'll be here all week. Try the veal.
Big Nate
Footballguy
Ok, what do you guys think his value is in dynasty? He's fallen to a point where I'm willing to toss up an offer (picks). In half-PPR he has overall finishes in the past 5 years as the WR# 2, 6, 2, 2 and then 21st last year. He did struggle with injuries and he also seemed to ride the crazy train at times.
I was out on him but now at his current value WR36 on KTC I might just jump on this crazy train. He's currently below Ricky Pearsall. Currently KTC has him as an early 2025 2nd round pick.
If he gets back into the top 15 WRs, even for 1 year of production, it would be a steal of a deal acquiring him.
My worry is he pulls an Antonio Brown mid-season but at least it doesn't look like it would cost a first rounder to get him....
I was out on him but now at his current value WR36 on KTC I might just jump on this crazy train. He's currently below Ricky Pearsall. Currently KTC has him as an early 2025 2nd round pick.
If he gets back into the top 15 WRs, even for 1 year of production, it would be a steal of a deal acquiring him.
My worry is he pulls an Antonio Brown mid-season but at least it doesn't look like it would cost a first rounder to get him....
Big Nate
Footballguy
I think it is worth the risk to at least inquire in dynasty if a team is looking to move on. I think his redraft ADP might even fall further as the summer goes on if there isn't a lot of talk of his recovery etc.
My main concern is he pisses off mid-season and we never see him again. He he had "quit" the Fins at the end of last year, his last press conference was not good with him saying "I'm out".
What if things aren't going well for him by mid-season and he says "peace-out".
<insert antonio brown running off the field pic>
Hopefully McDaniel can keep Hill happy and underwraps this year.
Big Nate
Footballguy
If the Fins defense isn't improved then this would be good for the passing game - having to catch up.
As for the kids - I can't bet that, he had like 5 last year....
No clue what KTC is but wr36 is ridiculous, most sites that I've looked at have him around 15 or so
Big Nate
Footballguy
Keep Trade Cut. It is a dynasty rankings site. It can be useful to gauge current "interest/hype" in a player. It can be a tool to use to see what a players current value might be. Lots of issues with it but it is what it is. I use it as a guide to go out and buy players who have fallen a lot in what the public may see/view.
Todem
Footballguy
You speak as
Tua will be as bad as ever amd won’t make it thru 8 games….then the Zach Wildos era comes alive…..it’s gonna be brutal this upcoming season.
You speak as if we have a QB……we don’t.
Tua will be as bad as ever amd won’t make it thru 8 games….then the Zach Wildos era comes alive…..it’s gonna be brutal this upcoming season.
FarFromHome
Footballguy
Except as a huge Tyreek fan that watched what they had before without Tua, Wilson is basically Joe Montana. It was actually embarrassing for the Dolphins without Tua. As long as he doesn't go full Antonio Brown, I think he has one more top 10 finish.
Todem
Footballguy
You have not seen what he has looked like this off-season have you.
This kid is fat….out of shape and not gonna last 6 games.
Done like dinner.
FarFromHome
Footballguy
I'm just getting back to football form. I'm not there yet. Tyreek is fat? Wtf. I'm hoping you mean Wilson or Tua.
Todem
Footballguy
Tua. Major beer gut…..ridiculous. He got paid….hit the lottery. He is done man.
FarFromHome
Footballguy
Okay good. Crisis averted. Let the Wilson era begin. Ha ha
efactor
Footballguy
Fake news. Some pictures from March where he was out on a boat drinking a beer and looked a bit overweight. Plenty of time to remedy that. Not exactly in the Jared Lorenzen category.
More concerned about him protecting himself on the rare occasion he takes off and runs.
Big Nate
Footballguy
Here we go again, nothing pleases you. Tua is a good QB and great for Hill in fantasy.
This is a fantasy football forum and Hill produced #2WR overall when the previous year when he was healthy.
Big Nate
Footballguy
All he does is trash the fins and it isn't helpful for fantasy football discussions and if a player might be worth a pick-up.
Some general advice for fantasy: you may not like a player or a team or whatever but if you write them off you will miss out on opportunities. For example with Hill, I have him in an auction dynasty league and I'm 100% not keeping him for his current price this year. It is too expensive - I'm 100% out in that league at that price. But maybe if everyone is out I can get him for cheaper.
Now for Hill he's dropped to WR36 on KTC and WR31 on fantasy pros.
If he plays all the games this year he will 100% finish higher than WR30. So if you are a contender you 100% need to be looking at Hill and see if he might be an option for your team. If you let your hate and dislike for a team/player cloud your mind you won't be successful and will miss opportunities.
As Hill is getting older there is a chance he has started to slide a bit and that is baked into his current ADP/value. I think he's slid to a point where I'm willing to take that risk for a possible top 20 or even top 10-15 WR at WR30 prices.
Todem
Footballguy
Tua won’t be good for Hill because he may last 6-7 weeks tops. Nightmare OL issues here and he literally is a standing target with almost no mobility. And he is fatter now than ever before…..just wait. It’s going to be hillarious when he is out of lineup for an extended amount of time for the 5th time in 6 seasons where he does not play every game.
So for fantasy purposes I would be steering clear of Hill….not only that…Hill is a loose cannon and at any time can have a meltdown. In fact this season is going to be so bad……he may quit on the team by mid season.
So for “fantasy” purposes people should steer clear of the Dolphins offense save for Devone Achane.
Todem
Footballguy
You laugh now……we will check back at the end of this upcoming season. Or maybe you found the post genuinely funny.
Unfortunately for Dolphins fans it’s gonna be our reality in the 2025 season.
pinkstapler
Footballguy
Genuinely thought it was funny after I googled the picture and saw him. Though his beer gut and what's considered out of shape for him is probably comparable to the best shape I've ever been in my life so then I stopped laughing and felt bad hahaha.
I do think it's probably a tad hyperbolic, as Tua doesn't seem much like a quitter to me though. If he was, I think the last concussion with fencing reaction would have been enough for him to stop playing. So while he definitely looks to have packed on some pounds and probably wasn't spending his entire off-season grinding like fans/fantasy owners would have preferred; I don't think its necessarily because he's quit on his team or career. I'm sure he'll be back on the grind sooner than later.
At the same time, I too am a little worried about this Dolphins offense; and some of it isn't even tied to him missing games (which is obviously also a big risk). And I've been saying since last season I think Tyreek is rapidly approaching, if not already over, the cliff. I don't think I'd be drafting either of them at ADP (or Waddle tbh). So I'd guess we might actually be pretty aligned on the outlook for this offense in 2025. Which is a major bummer considering how high I was on it just two years ago. They were one of the most fun watches in the league IMO when running on all cylinders.
Ministry of Pain
Footballguy
This was a funny exchange and then it turned sour, let's discuss some Pros and Cons
-Hill is still bothered by a wrist injury, same one that was in cuffs last year Week 1 on the way into the Stadium. Hill could not have gotten off to a worse start last year, off field issues overtook the narrative for Hill vs his play on the field
-Tua Tags is a walking concussion protocol at this point. After 2-3 big ones in 2022, he plays all of '23 and then last year has a huge concussion again early in the season vs the Bills where he essentially did it to himself that had folks off the field asking if perhaps he shouldn't hang em up in the off season
-Miami has improved the IOL but lost Armstead at Left Tackle, it's not a strong unit overall, the Phins cannot protect Tua, it's the front office and owner's fault not Tua.
But you have to factor in Tua missing multiple weeks if not more, one more hit could literally be his last in the NFL
Phins avoid a major cap hit in 2026 if they walk away from Tua post June 1st next year, many of us think that's a pretty big reset date for the Phins
I understand your passion and why Todem rubs you the wrong way, he's more focused on the team vs FF, I'm not that much different except I can step back and admit when I'm super bias on the Phins. There are some potential silver linings, the early word on Savaiinaea the new OL they drafted and likely will plug in at RG where Hunt use to line up, Top 3 impact rookie NOT drafted in the 1st round, that was hailed and being tossed around. Miami also signed Daniels from the Steelers who is coming off injury but better than almost anyone on the Miami OL
That's 2 big beef-mobiles they are plugging inside to overhaul the OL, Savaiinaea is also an expert at zone blocking, Arizona ran a similar offense to what McDaniel likes to implement
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Ministry of Pain
Footballguy
Big Nate
Footballguy
Good to see he's getting help through therapy and has realized he needs to change some things. I'm really thinking about gambling on him that he can bounce back and have one more good season. He just needs to keep everything in check.
He played last year with a wrist injury that needed surgery. It is now fixed. If he can keep his head in it he can be a top 10 WR again in this offense.
If he's going as a middling WR2, I think its not even really a gamble. I've seen him in early ranks going as low as WR22.
FarFromHome
Footballguy
Hill is just a weird dude. That's okay though. I'm just glad at this stage in his career he can try to finally really focus on football. Ha ha. Imagine if he had Jerry Rice or Koby Bryant desire in him? I think he has one more really good year. Then done. Imo
Was stuck with Hill last year in a league and it killed me.
I know targets are now up for grabs with J. Smith gone, but the whole problem last year was a) Tua getting the ball out quick, and b) never going down the field.
Has there been any indication this will change?
If anything, those free targets are probably going to D. Achane.
I'm staying away.
I know targets are now up for grabs with J. Smith gone, but the whole problem last year was a) Tua getting the ball out quick, and b) never going down the field.
Has there been any indication this will change?
If anything, those free targets are probably going to D. Achane.
I'm staying away.
jm192
Footballguy
I'm just fading him super hard at this point.
I think the earliest I really start to consider him in terms of ranking is 15. He's probably closer to 20. I just can't shake last year. I get that the wrist was an issue. But he's 31 and coming off a really disappointing year. Tua is always going to be 1 sack away from missing extended time. Can the O-line protect him more this year? I'm not super confident in it. Can they keep the pass rush away long enough for Hill to consistently get open deep if Tua DOES stay healthy?
He's also giving off some early headcase vibes. I just don't feel good about it. Someone else can take a chance on the upside. I'll avoid the downside.
I think the earliest I really start to consider him in terms of ranking is 15. He's probably closer to 20. I just can't shake last year. I get that the wrist was an issue. But he's 31 and coming off a really disappointing year. Tua is always going to be 1 sack away from missing extended time. Can the O-line protect him more this year? I'm not super confident in it. Can they keep the pass rush away long enough for Hill to consistently get open deep if Tua DOES stay healthy?
He's also giving off some early headcase vibes. I just don't feel good about it. Someone else can take a chance on the upside. I'll avoid the downside.
warpig33
Footballguy
Antonio Brown 2.0
FarFromHome
Footballguy
Whoa Warpig slow it down a bit. Ha ha. I've always loved Hill. Just an amazing talent. I will admit this past year was just brutal. Having said all that, I think he has one more year of top 10 wr numbers. Imo. This year, when Tua misses the inevitable game or two, at least they have Wilson. I'm not saying Wilson is great, or even good, im saying last year when Tua went down they basically had me throwing the football.
Ministry of Pain
Footballguy
Because I like all three of you and what you bring to the Shark Pool which in turn helps me a lot when I am formulating my strategy, allow me to share an overlooked issue here
2022 119-1,700-7TDs on 170 targets
2023 119-1,799-13 TDs on 170 targets
It's almost like a carbon copy...and then the off season between '23 and '24 is frightening.
-House Fire, Has an affair with a trainer of some kind and eventually breaks her leg in a backyard pick up football game(look it up), files for divorce then says he's not filing for divorce and back and forth this goes on, and there's more but let's get to Week 1 on the 2024 season on his way into the stadium where he is pulled from his car and tossed on the ground in cuffs after his wrist surgery. His season could not have gotten off to a worse start and he never recovered IMHO...even when he was on the field he didn't look right
2024 81-955-6TDs on 120 targets....
Do you believe Hill is going to only collect another 120 targets?
Compared to the high 1st round grade he had a season ago, his ADP right now is 29th overall
Strong Round 3 upside WR and I have to point this out...Name any starting Cornerback for the Miami Dolphins right now...Kohou was their best guy and he's gone for '25
Storm Duck anyone? You can't make this **** up...Miami is going to be in shootouts or they're gonna lose a lot of games. Either way they are going to be playing from behind
Add in a revamped OL that has some people taking notice in camp so far.
Hill has a ring already, he just cares about his stats and his money to pay for all the child support for his 15 babies or however many he has spread across this great nation
Did I also mention he would not re-enter a game late in the season?
And he's still here because when you have a weak sauce Owner, GM and HC you put up with this crap because we're the "Miami Dolphins"
When you have an owner that cost the team a 1st round pick, a 3rd round pick, gets caught red handed trying to fix football games unless you think Brian Flores was lying-
NFL suspended Ross 8 games...never happened to another owner including Snyder, how Ross still has control of the team and wasn't forced to sell with his track record is unexplainable
warpig33
Footballguy
My "Antonio Brown 2.0" comment was just pointing out that his mental state certainly seems concerning. AB gradually got worse...and it seems like Hill is following the same path. Just some head scratching actions and comments from Hill. I can still see him being a top 20 WR for 2025. However, that will depend on how long he can hold it together. What will he do if/when Tua goes down again? What will he do if Waddle is getting more looks than him (reports have been that Waddle is looking really good)? Ooof.
ffmail4me
Footballguy
Ministry of Pain
Footballguy
No doubt but the Miami Dolphins have $30 Million reasons to get his target total back up over at least 150
And they can't trade Hill, nobody wants him for more than a later round pick, that doesn't help Miami or the folks trying to save their jobs this season
Ministry of Pain
Footballguy
Don't discount Quinn Ewers either, that's Miami's starting QB in 2026
jm192
Footballguy
I completely feel this.
It feels like there is a non-zero percent chance he takes his jersey off and leaves the field mid game.
JohnnyU
Footballguy
I hear bad things
Might want to get that checked
JohnnyU
Footballguy
I suppose it’s better than I see dead people.
For sure.
But seriously on Hill I'm not sure who you listen to or what you heard but I've heard nothing but a pretty steady stream of positives.
I feel like when things go a little south for a player people just pile on to much. Like his comment on Achane a few days ago and people taking that as him being crazy or not a team player and I read it went over nothing like that at all in the lockerroom.
JohnnyU
Footballguy
Only a month to go.
darksideofoz
Footballguy
well yeah, you avoid provoking the crazy WR1 for as long as possible.
bolded.....Hill isn't just a take the top off kind of player.....TBH with coverage usually over the top because of his speed, he can actually do more damage with YAC on slants and crossing routes....
I'm expecting a bounce back and gobbling up the discount.....
jm192
Footballguy
I certainly don't mean to imply that's all he is. You don't become the dominant receiver he has been without being able to do all the things. But, surely taking away the home runs limits upside.
His YPC last year was 11.9, which was his lowest since 2021. They were definitely throwing him the ball underneath last year. And, he didn't break 1,000 yards.
I think he "bounces back" But I think it may be something like 1150 instead of 1750.
bluemanfoo
Footballguy
I get people's reservations because of Tyreek's age, the dependence on Tua's health, and the awful pass protection last year. But there is a path back to eliteness, which would make him a league winner given his current ADP of 25 and WR12. Can't totally say for sure but I didn't really see him losing a step last year. I mostly saw a dumpster fire of an offense and offensive line. Also, Tyreek lost 15 lbs to get faster during the offseason. Yeah, the offensive line has to improve but Patrick Paul has looked great in camp, and there is some hope there.
In general, I love to buy low on talented players like Tyreek, Kelce, and Rhamondre, who all lost weight this offseason BTW, and all have the chance to bounce back substantially. Wasn't high on Deebo initially, but he reportedly got in better shape too, although he always looks puffy to me because he's big boned....
Recency bias creates great value on draft day.
In general, I love to buy low on talented players like Tyreek, Kelce, and Rhamondre, who all lost weight this offseason BTW, and all have the chance to bounce back substantially. Wasn't high on Deebo initially, but he reportedly got in better shape too, although he always looks puffy to me because he's big boned....
Recency bias creates great value on draft day.
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Totally agree.
But fyi he did miss practice today with an undisclosed injury per multiple reports. Severity unknown.
Lack of details always makes me uneasy, admittedly especially with him.
