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I thought I read this as well-butA stat in Harrison's favor-no WR other than Harrison has had double digit TD's for 8 years in a row.Marvin is a different kind of player and he has the ultimate QB throwing to him and they have a one of a kind rapport. Rice, Carter, Bruce, Monk-all had different QB's during their career-Harrison only one. Edit: Actually that's incorrect-Petyton wasnt on the Colts in 96 and 97 but since 98 it's been Manning
Check out my Blog entry 36 Year oldsSince 1960 there have only been 8-10 WR1 or 2 players at the age of 36 playing.
There are some decent comparisons between Carter and Harrison in terms of attributes and pass-friendly systems. Add him to Joiner.
Obviously, Retzlaff was the first. There's a name I haven't heard in weeks, but I don't think I've ever heard around here..
While I understand the desire to want to use absolutes in terms of age and likely bounds of performance, FF is constantly seeing new things happen.Few if any posters predicted Manning would throw 49 TDs in 2004, and if they did I'm sure they were roundly ridiculed.Ditto for anyone who might have predicted that the TD record would be broken 3 times in a 4-5 year span.But these things did happen.Harrison may or may not have double-digit TDs this year, but at least for the 2007 season, very little of that outcome will be determined by the details of his birth certificate.stevegamer said:
Here's the thing: I don't think anyone's predicting Isaac Bruce or Joey Galloway to score 10+ TDs this season. Right now Dodds has Harrison at 90/1251/11, which is only a tiny nudge down from last year's numbers. Smith, Henry, Woods, and Tremblay all have Harrison scoring 10+ TDs. Whereas someone like Isaac Bruce, whose situation appears to have improved from last year when he had 74/1098, is projected for 62/862. Same with Galloway coming off 62/1057/7, with no one projecting him for 1000 yards this year.I think Harrison's consistency has blinded people to the risk. The guy's getting older, and he's being projected to have the best season ever by a WR of his age--better than Jerry Rice, who played on the team with the #1 passing offense at age 35. Harrison is a great player, but I'm not comfortable with that projection.
Isn't it possible that Bruce's projections are the ones that are wrong? Maybe they should be higher. On the other hand, while I love Bruce for value in 2007 drafts, keep in mind he did only have 3 TDs last year.As for Galloway, let's just say I don't think too many people are confusing his situation in Tampa Bay with Harrison's in Indy. His injury history with hamstrings alone is enough to give pause to his 2007 prospects. Again, however, I see great value in Galloway later in drafts.
There is no TO emerging opposite of Harrison. Wayne is very good, but he is already in his prime. Perhaps his numbers increase, but not the explosion of an Owens. Oh, and there is the little detail of 1998 being the season in which Jerry Rice was coming back after his ACL&MCL injury. I think that might strike most people as a somewhat noteworthy difference compared to Harrison in 2007.
Rice came back from the ACL injury in 1997 and broke his kneecap in week 16 that year, so Rice was coming back from an easier injury from which to recover.But anyway, Rice's situation doesn't have direct relevance to Harrison's; they're both individuals. I just think there's a low probability that Harrison will repeat as the #1 WR, and a fairly significant probability that he will not even be the #1 WR on his own team.
I completely agree with both of your points. Indeed, there is a low probability that Harrison will repeat as the #1 WR. That's a rare occurrence for anyone. And given how similar Wayne and Harrison are in that offense, I think there is a 35-40% chance that Wayne will outproduce Harrison in 2007. However, I believe it is completely reasonable to project Harrison to have better numbers than Rice in 1998, unless you expect Wayne to account for 14 TDs to Harrison's 9, when for the past three seasons the TDs have gone 15-12-12 for Harrison and 12-5-9 for Wayne. That's a huge swing even if you expect age to take an effect.As for the Rice comparison, I believe you were the one who brought that up, and I simply pointed out the health difference and the fact that Wayne's situation as an established player for several seasons is not at all like TO in SF. Wayne is entering his 7th season and will turn 29 in November. Owens in 1998 was entering his 3rd season and turned 25 that December. And I continue to think that having two injuries and rehab on the same knee in one season/off-season is not comparable to Harrison's 2007 offsesaon, and I'm pretty sure most people would agree with me.
In all fairness, last year was a down year for top WRs. Of the top 30 WR seasons of the past 5 years, only three occurred last year. Harrison's 2006 would have ranked 2nd in 2005, 3rd in 2004 or 2003, or 4th in 2002. 85% of Marvin's numbers would have still been good enough for a top-5 finish last year, but in 2005 or 2004, they would have only ranked him 10th.
