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WSOP Ivey/Daniel Fade (1 Viewer)

UniAlias said:
Out of boredom I ran the numbers from 2013.. kind of a silly way to look at it. But assuming you had an equal chance to win as everyone else, and you played every event (excluding senior/women/casino employee), which I know is unrealistic but for the purpose of conversation... The combined percentages of all events to win would equal roughly 12.44%. The majority of that number consists of the dozen or so <300 field events. The .015% chance of winning the ME obviously doesn't impact the numbers much.

I'm sure it's technically impossible to play every event due to timing, but it's interesting to look at. I believe several of the events are rebuy & multi-day re-entry flight events which would increase the percentage some. I'm sure depending on how much action they get on the bet they would play much more aggressively in the early stages of larger tournaments.

I think it's an +EV bet but not by a whole lot.
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I get this and agree, the problem is knowing how many events they play per year. My guess is that Danny and Ivey would average play less than half the events at wsop since they blew up in 2006.

I have played in over 30 events at the WSOP in the last 5 years and they were in about 8 of them combined.

 
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I'd be in for $1K if we want to start a pool going. I can't believe it's that bad of a bet, and it would be pretty cool to have a rooting interest in all the WSOP events.

Let's get a list of the people who are serious and see if we can get $10K together.

 
kutta said:
I'd be in for $1K if we want to start a pool going. I can't believe it's that bad of a bet, and it would be pretty cool to have a rooting interest in all the WSOP events.

Let's get a list of the people who are serious and see if we can get $10K together.
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The minimum is only 5k.

I think $500 is the most I'd be willing to risk. Just a little reluctant to bet against two of the best card players in the world. And while the whole concept of someone being "due" falls a little into the silly superstitious category, it's seems kind of true in this case. Ivey and Negreanu are still winning other tournaments, and still cashing at WSOP, but both haven't had a win in several years.

My other concern which has been alluded to a few times in here is the possibility of a deal taking place at the final table. I guess realistically for something like that to remain secret it would have to be down to a handful of players... but the idea that this side-bet could end up being large enough that Phil or Daniel could likely pay out more than 1st place in a tournament chop situation and still turn a huge profit is kind of crazy.

But I agree that it would be fun to have a reason to really pay attention to WSOP by doing this. If $500 is enough to join the pool I'd be willing. Unsure how difficult it will be for someone to organize and facilitate this bet though. I imagine moving funds this large through PP may draw some red flags...

 
It is a giving that Ivey is in on the action? They way the OP laid it out, it was Negreanu offering action and including Ivey's results. My guess is that Ivey would be part of it because why wouldn't he want to bet on himself but still seems a little unclear.

FYI, the email Negreanu provides is his PA's...she is a lesbian from Bangkok which seems like a contradiction.

 
I'm in for $500 with a pool of poker players that have pulled together $11K for this. One of the guys (who is in for $3K) knows DN personaly so we dont even have to escrow.

 
I've never played in a WSOP event, but my understanding is that often the final few players will make a deal for the cash and play for the bracelet. If one of the two made a deal to forego all the cash but get the bracelet, would that be considered angle shooting as it relates to the bet?

 
You think either one of these guys has any problem buying off a fellow player at a final table?

And that's just the most obvious way to rig this thing.

 
Isn't there some axiom about taking prop bets... If the guy offering you a prop is an expert in the area, don't do it. Guaranteed the edge is on their side. The only way it would not be is if there is another independent factor - like them making money off the publicity.

Bottom line is they have very little chance of losing money.

 
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17seconds said:
Isn't there some axiom about taking prop bets... If the guy offering you a prop is an expert in the area, don't do it. Guaranteed the edge is on their side. The only way it would not be is if there is another independent factor - like them making money off the publicity.

Bottom line is they have very little chance of losing money.
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I think it comes from Guys and Dolls: "One of these days in your travels, a guy is going to show you a brand-new deck of cards on which the seal is not yet broken. Then this guy is going to offer to bet you that he can make the jack of spades jump out of this brand-new deck of cards and squirt cider in your ear. But, son, do not accept this bet, because as sure as you stand there, you're going to wind up with an ear full of cider."

 
Daniel booked my action this AM as part if a larger group.

Daniel Negreanu ‏@RealKidPoker 25m

Busted the $25k WSOP event JJ vs Kevin Song's AK suited. Flop Ace. Will be entering the $1k PLO shortly

 
Daniel was on the pokercast last week and said they made the same prop last year and he didn't even take any action. Phil lost money.

So I'm not quite as cynical about it being an angle.

 
I'm taking a real simple approach to this. I don't think it's worse then a 50/50 bet. I can't get to Vegas this summer. About as close to the action as I can get other than a few % of two Poker Pro friends I own.

 
17seconds said:
Daniel was on the pokercast last week and said they made the same prop last year and he didn't even take any action. Phil lost money.

So I'm not quite as cynical about it being an angle.
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I understand, but still not betting against the house. Ivey is not in all these lawsuits because he is not pushing things.

 
31 players left in the 25k Mix Max NL.

Ivey is sitting at 6th right now. Loaded field as you can imagine with the high entry fee.

 
JC Tran flopped a small flush while Ivey flopped a straight with no flush draw.

Drawing dead - just what we want to see in the $25K event.

 
NIU Kicker said:
JC Tran flopped a small flush while Ivey flopped a straight with no flush draw.

Drawing dead - just what we want to see in the $25K event.
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If Tran flopped a small flush, Ivey had to have had a backdoor flush draw -- so not really drawing dead until at least the turn.

 
Maurile Tremblay said:
NIU Kicker said:
JC Tran flopped a small flush while Ivey flopped a straight with no flush draw.

Drawing dead - just what we want to see in the $25K event.
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If Tran flopped a small flush, Ivey had to have had a backdoor flush draw -- so not really drawing dead until at least the turn.
Click to expand...
Flopped red flush with Ivey holding all black, or vice versa down?

 
coyote5 said:
Maurile Tremblay said:
NIU Kicker said:
JC Tran flopped a small flush while Ivey flopped a straight with no flush draw.

Drawing dead - just what we want to see in the $25K event.
Click to expand...
If Tran flopped a small flush, Ivey had to have had a backdoor flush draw -- so not really drawing dead until at least the turn.
Click to expand...
Flopped red flush with Ivey holding all black, or vice versa down?
Click to expand...
The point they are trying to make is that the board could end up in a flush and a split pot.

 
kutta said:
coyote5 said:
Maurile Tremblay said:
NIU Kicker said:
JC Tran flopped a small flush while Ivey flopped a straight with no flush draw.

Drawing dead - just what we want to see in the $25K event.
Click to expand...
If Tran flopped a small flush, Ivey had to have had a backdoor flush draw -- so not really drawing dead until at least the turn.
Click to expand...
Flopped red flush with Ivey holding all black, or vice versa down?
Click to expand...
The point they are trying to make is that the board could end up in a flush and a split pot.
Click to expand...
gotcha

 
Houston we may have a problem.....

Event #13: 10K No-Limit 2-7 Draw Lowball7 left, Negreanu in 3'd.

There were only a handful of events I was truly worried about.... this is one of them. Thankfully there are some other good players at this table.

 
The Ref said:
Houston we may have a problem.....

Event #13: 10K No-Limit 2-7 Draw Lowball

7 left, Negreanu in 3'd.

There were only a handful of events I was truly worried about.... this is one of them. Thankfully there are some other good players at this table.
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Yeah this is the problem. However, I still don't think he is better than 50% to win. Not even close in fact.

 
In other news I'm glad I didnt fade Hellmuth..... every time I look up he is at another final table. (6th out of 15 in the 6 handed NLH).

 
Ivey may be out, but he's still the talk of the town

Over on Table 353, Mike Gorodinsky turned his chair around to get a massage and that made Nick Schulman think of a great Phil Ivey story.

"A few years ago, I was getting a massage at the table but I had no cash on me, so I asked Ivey if he could pay the lady for me," Schulman said. "So when the massage was over, he gives the lady a thousand bucks," to which the the entire table bursted out in laughter because it was just a 90-minute massage, according to Schulman.

"Ivey said, 'We're at a thousand now,'" citing than Schulman now owed Ivey $1,000, and the laughter continued.

"Now that's a great move," Brandon Cantu added with a laugh. "That's one of the funniest things I've ever heard."

"That for sure was a pro move," Schulman replied with a smile

 
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