My curiosity went to two matters, Man of Constant Sorrow was going to post a lengthy reply ...
Sorry man, I am a bit late.
We were discussing island survival in another thread, and it reminded me of this one.
1st, congrats to those who got the correct answer. I incorporated
@moleculo's version into my big plan, but I did not name it as my primary option. Thus, I failed the official riddle. However, I will still defend my losing answer.
I now acknowledge that the riddle was looking for the "technical answer" to escape, but I never really approached it from that angle. Rather, I saw 2 questions in the riddle.
1) In the title of the riddle:
You’ve Been Marooned By Kidnappers. Can You Escape At Dawn?
2) In the text of the riddle:
Before daybreak, you’ve worked out exactly how you’ll use that minute of time on the satellite phone so that your people, who are also not stupid, will be able to dispatch rescue.
What will you say?
Therefore, I am primarily focused on answering the
bold above. My goal is to maximize my survival percentage while being as ethical as possible.
My first consideration is the kidnappers themselves and what they said to me. The quote below contains all of the information passed to me
by the kidnappers:
“That’s a satellite phone,” the figure growls. “It’s got one minute of battery left in it. Use that to call your people to let ’em know you’re not dead — but not until daylight.” He tosses a paper bag next to the sat phone. “That’s some sandwiches and water, enough for a few days. That’s salt,” he explains, waving toward the surf. “If your people pay our ransom,” he continues, “We’ll come get you. Otherwise, there won’t be any more paper bags. Remember, wait until daylight to make that call.”
I am taking this riddle literally and am assuming that
no other information was given to me. From this, I can construct my basic theory on the situation.
- I have a satellite phone with one minute of battery life.
- I have been instructed to not use it before daylight.
- I am to call "my people" to let them know that I am not dead.
- If "my people" pay their ransom, I will be retrieved.
- If my people do not pay their ransom, I will be left in place, with no future supplies from the kidnappers.
Now, what is not said?
- The kidnappers provide no information on how to contact them for payment details. Therefore, they must be in a position to make the needed contact with "my people". How will they do that? They will be tracing my call - and most likely be listening in. It is their phone after all. This is the only way that a deal can be reached because neither I, nor "my people", know how to contact them. They will have to make contact later with whomever I call.
- The kidnappers do not say how many calls I am allowed. They only give me a total battery life time. Will they cut off my phone after the 1st call even if I do not use all of my minute? I would do this, as I can now deal directly with the contact.
- If they are listening in, will they cut off the phone if they suspect that I am providing information that will allow a rescue operation? Most definitely, imo.
- If they are listening in, will they come and retrieve me (or kill me) if I successfully pass along info that will allow a rescue operation? I don't know, but I think it depends on the potential profit. If I am a likely big $$$ guy, then it may be worth it to move and try again. If I am not that lucrative, then a bullet to my head from off shore would do nicely. They are closer to me than any rescue team and have the time and motive to make this a loss for my party. I do not think that they would just allow my rescue; it would not be good for their reputation.
- In this scenario, is it possible for me to successfully pass along info that would allow for a rescue? Yes, but I argue that it is a long shot that must be deftly handled.
Therefore, I still believe that my original position of preparing to pay the ransom is the higher percentage play here - if I want to survive.
At this point, I am going to quote my earlier thoughts:
,
Here is my reasoning.
- After seeing how complicated this is, I do not believe that I could devise a 100% solution.
- Thus, I need to weigh my guess of my escape odds vs. my trust in the kidnappers word.
- These kidnappers seem pretty dang organized. And, that means they are prolly good at what they do. Good kidnappers need to be trustworthy in order to succeed - or else they would not keep getting ransoms paid.
- In the end, I trust the kidnappers more than the smarts of me and my friends.
- Since I am rich, no biggie.
- I may lose this way, but I have more confidence in it than my best escape plan.
Call to friends after daybreak:
Pay the ransom.
Thus, (at this point) I would make a brief call to "my people" after daybreak and explain my situation quickly. I would state that I don't think I can afford the ransom, but I would prefer to buy my way out regardless - through negotiation. I would ask my contact to get all available funds ready - BUT, I would NOT mention a specific amount, and I would say something like, "Yeah - I know funds are limited - I don't even want to know the actual amount. Don't tell me. Just have funds ready."
My true purpose for negotiation would not be to save money (I am super rich), rather it would be to persuade the kidnappers that "milking this thing further" would not be to their ultimate benefit. Of course, I do not know if the kidnappers are listening in on my phone call or observing me remotely - it is possible though. The important thing to establish, is that I am not too quick or eager to agree to the terms - whatever they are.
In this riddle, there is no info about how "my people" will actually contact the kidnappers.
I have addressed the bold at the top after thinking more on it. I now believe that the kidnappers must be listening in and must be the ones to make contact with "my people".
So, the "negotiation" that I desire is not readily apparent. Therefore, the only way I can think of to make the kidnappers believe that I am not an easy mark - is to delay. I will take my time.
After the 1st brief call, I will hold out - and enjoy the lovely sandwiches, water and beach.
The case of Somali piracy is an excellent example. Somalis had hijacked a few ships a year for decades, releasing hostages after a few months for low six-figure sums. Yet when nervous negotiators tried to accelerate this process by offering million-dollar ransoms, Somali piracy escalated and became a threat to global trade. It is therefore in the financial interest of those being issued ransom demands, as well as their moral responsibility, to try to limit the payments.
The quote above is what I would think about between the 1st and 2nd calls to my contact. I want to be a morally responsible citizen, but I also want to live. After that contemplation, I would decide to do my best to live - but also to live morally.
Once out of supplies, I would have
maybe a week (3-4 days is actually more typical) before succumbing to thirst and dehydration. I could go longer without food (about 3 weeks), but with no water, that does not matter.
Therefore, I have made my 1st call and am now thinking about my next move. I have 3-4 days marked as my deadline.
At this point, Moleculo convinced me that his plan was good. Not 100%, but good.
OK. While I am playing my delay game, I will do my best to follow
@moleculo 's procedure as discussed in the quotes above.
Thus, (at this point) I would make a brief call to "my people" after daybreak and explain my situation quickly.
I would time this 1st call per Mol's plan.
After the 1st brief call, I will hold out - and enjoy the lovely sandwiches, water and beach.
I would modify this part of my plan to this:
2) Make 2nd call per Mol's plan
Now, after doing this, I have set in motion
@moleculo' s - I believe - please correct me if I am wrong.
At this point, I have made 2 calls - to set 2 potential plans into action. It is now time for me to sleep and think about the next move.
OK, after thinking more, I may not have the chance to make a 2nd call. Thus, all things pertaining to that are conditional. Will I be able to get it past the kidnappers successfully and safely? I do not know, but even if I do, would it work? Or, would I be moved or killed? I do not know.
However:
In a certain sense, I have completed the requests of the riddle.
From riddle itself:
Before daybreak, you’ve worked out exactly how you’ll use that minute of time on the satellite phone so that your people, who are also not stupid, will be able to dispatch rescue.
What will you say?
I have already answered what I would say, even if I have not chosen which actual plan I will eventually use. I have my plan to pay the ransom and
@moleculo's plan for escape both initiated with this call.
From the riddle title:
This is the tougher question to answer. However, since I have decided to play the long game, the answer - for me - is NO. I cannot escape at dawn because dawn is the point when I 1st begin my plan by calling my people. It will take time for the actual Escape to occur. Thus, I can't Escape at Dawn.
In order for me to escape at dawn, I will either need to find a way to do it all by myself - or - break the kidnappers rule of not making any calls before dawn. If I break this rule, then I lower my chances of living in the long run.
By my math, breaking the kidnappers dawn call rule is not worth it.
So - I have my answer to this - No.
This does not mean that a possible escape by dawn is not potentially doable - but - I have already spent that amount of time trying to figure a way off - and have not found an answer. Thus, in the real life scenario, I most likely would not have found an answer either.
Again - this supports my answer of No.
Therefore, I do not think that the answer requires any further detail.
OK, I know this is a "wrong" answer, and I did not really type it all up coherently, but I at least wanted to defend my position.
Thnx again for the riddle
@Juxtatarot. This was fun.