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You Have $50 million to spend on your top QB and WR (1 Viewer)

Warhogs

Footballguy
How are you going to spend it? Thinking this based on seeing some big money QB and WR contracts and top WR being traded away. Do you want the $40mil QB and a $10mil WR or the $20mil QB and the $30mil WR?

Based on what's happening I think maybe my Packers got this right even though I find Rodgers a very unlikable dude.

 

rockaction

Footballguy
Give me what the Packers and Kansas City did. It just makes their draft picks that much more important. They're in the pressure cooker to get guys that can contribute right away during their rookie deal. 

And this is going to resolve itself eventually. Even a closed market like this one will find some sort of consistent distribution to differing labor functions. 

 

BoltBacker

Footballguy
Give me what the Packers and Kansas City did. It just makes their draft picks that much more important. They're in the pressure cooker to get guys that can contribute right away during their rookie deal. 
Exactly.

I'd much rather look for a replacement WR in the draft that is 80% as good as Adams/Hill, than look for a QB in the draft that is 80% as good as Mahomes/Rodgers.

To start with you might have four swings to find your WR. You might have zero swings to find the QB and have to trade up several picks just to get one legitimate swing to find the QB.

It's amazing the prices being spent on some of these vet WR's. There is a good crop of WR's entering the league.... every.... single... year.

 

-OZ-

Footballguy
There’s talk that the Titans will need to make AJ brown one of, if not the, highest paid WR in the next year. As much as I like the guy I think that’s a mistake. One you could probably make if you had an elite QB on a rookie deal but not now. 

the salaries paid to these guys, and the impact on other positions, is a reason I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Texans improve significantly in the next two years if they can hit on the picks and Mills lives up to his potential.  And of course as already mentioned, Cincy is in a really nice position. 

 
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SeniorVBDStudent

Footballguy
42 million on QB.  8 million on WR.  

Outside of QB, skill position players are widgets.  Cooper Kupp winning a SB ring is the exception to the rule; most "elite WRs" never even sniff the SB, and when they do they get spanked by a powerful defense.

 

-OZ-

Footballguy
42 million on QB.  8 million on WR.  

Outside of QB, skill position players are widgets.  Cooper Kupp winning a SB ring is the exception to the rule; most "elite WRs" never even sniff the SB, and when they do they get spanked by a powerful defense.
It’s interesting. Looking at the past SB champs, each has has an elite WR or TE or both. Of course they also had an elite QB like Brady or Nick Foles to lead the way. 

 

-OZ-

Footballguy
I see what you did there.   But who was the elite wr/te on that eagles team?
I’d argue Ertz, but really that team is an outlier. You can’t even say their defense won the SB as they gave up over 500 yards to Brady. 

 

-OZ-

Footballguy
His potential? What exactly is his potential? Slightly above average?

Absolute best is a Kirk Cousins type, no?
I never like to claim “absolute best” since I was completely wrong about the goat. But I see cousins type as a reasonable ceiling / reaching his potential. 

 

Neil Beaufort Zod

Footballguy
I’d argue Ertz, but really that team is an outlier. You can’t even say their defense won the SB as they gave up over 500 yards to Brady. 
Agreed. Many teams provide something of a roadmap to success. That was just a year where things came together. Still fun, but nothing to learn from, really. 

 

Payne

Footballguy
There’s talk that the Titans will need to make AJ brown one of, if not the, highest paid WR in the next year. As much as I like the guy I think that’s a mistake. One you could probably make if you had an elite QB on a rookie deal but not now. 

the salaries paid to these guys, and the impact on other positions, is a reason I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Texans improve significantly in the next two years if they can hit on the picks and Mills lives up to his potential.  And of course as already mentioned, Cincy is in a really nice position. 
Sorry, he is not close to that level in my opinion. 

 

Wise Old Owl

Footballguy
42 million on QB.  8 million on WR.  

Outside of QB, skill position players are widgets.  Cooper Kupp winning a SB ring is the exception to the rule; most "elite WRs" never even sniff the SB, and when they do they get spanked by a powerful defense.
The last 3 superbowls have been:

Kupp/OBJ vs Chase/Higgins

Evans/Godwin/Brown vs Hill/Kelce

Hill/Kelce vs Deebo/Kittle

If anything, the past 3 superbowls show having elite receiving options are very important. You think Cincy makes this superbowl without Chase?

 

DropKick

Footballguy
How are you going to spend it? Thinking this based on seeing some big money QB and WR contracts and top WR being traded away. Do you want the $40mil QB and a $10mil WR or the $20mil QB and the $30mil WR?

Based on what's happening I think maybe my Packers got this right even though I find Rodgers a very unlikable dude.
Not sure that the Packers or Chiefs got it right as each may have committed too much to the QB position, eventually impacting other positions.  Rodgers is at $50 per annum now, which leaves us with no money for a WR within your imaginary budget scenario.  Mahomes is more affordable in 2022 at just under $30...  but he starts heading for the stratosphere after this season, peaking at $60 million in 2027.  Each team probably enters 2022 as less of a favorite with the loss of a a key weapon.

Of course, your best bet is to get a Burrow or Herbert on a rookie deal, but eventually that window runs out and its time to pony up. Just two and half years ago, in the prime of his career, Tyreek Hill signed a three year deal for $54...  which demonstrates how fast things are changing.    With contracts leap frogging each other, you're going to pay a top QB eventually, so...   Within your budget constraints, I'd prioritize the QB and get creative at WR.   The market will demand $35 or more for the QB.  Cousins in in the $35 range... Josh Allen low 40s.  Depending on the QB salary, you might have enough for an Allen Robinson,  Courtland Sutton or Russell Gage.   Then its moneyball...  You would also have to target (and hit on) young WRs in the draft, think Diontae Johnson and Elijah Moore types.  Supplement them with affordable vets and good TEs.  On to the SB!

 

Hot Sauce Guy

Footballguy
I’d say you spend substantially more on the QB.

Then spread the rest to a few good WR. 

i want my elite talent behind center. There are just so many WRs.

It’ll be interesting to see how the Raiders, Dolphins & uh, Jags? do with their highly paid WR acquisitions. 

 

BoltBacker

Footballguy
If anything, the past 3 superbowls show having elite receiving options are very important. You think Cincy makes this superbowl without Chase?
Matt Stafford, Joe Burrow, Tom Brady, Patrick Mahomes the past two seasons.

Forget making the SB, I'm not even sure those teams make the playoffs without those starting QB's the past two years. I guess the Rams were a WC team in 2021,,,, but even then they were still paying a QB franchise money at the time just to get into the WC game.

And the argument isn't so much that you don't need any playmakers to make the SB, it's just that you can go and find playmakers more easily than you can find SB caliber QB's.

 

offdee

Footballguy
I’d say you spend substantially more on the QB.

Then spread the rest to a few good WR. 

i want my elite talent behind center. There are just so many WRs.

It’ll be interesting to see how the Raiders, Dolphins & uh, Jags? do with their highly paid WR acquisitions. 
The other element here is the that the QB is what makes the WR become good/elite.    A WR doesn't make a QB good/elite.

So, there's really no point in spending all your money on an elite WR if you don't have a decent QB to get them the ball consistently  (i.e. Baker Mayfield with OBJ, for example)

 

Wise Old Owl

Footballguy
Matt Stafford, Joe Burrow, Tom Brady, Patrick Mahomes the past two seasons.

Forget making the SB, I'm not even sure those teams make the playoffs without those starting QB's the past two years. I guess the Rams were a WC team in 2021,,,, but even then they were still paying a QB franchise money at the time just to get into the WC game.

And the argument isn't so much that you don't need any playmakers to make the SB, it's just that you can go and find playmakers more easily than you can find SB caliber QB's.
I agree with your overall point that QB matters more than anything else but this was Stafford's 13th year in the league and his first with a playoff win. It's easy to say now that he is a SB caliber QB but not everyone felt that way until recently. A very similar Rams team made the SB with Goff. Same thing with Burrow, he had a respectable rookie year before his injury but that offense obviously took a major step forward with Chase. 

Once you find a QB, I think the next most important thing for a team is to find an elite receiving option. AJ Green made Dalton look like a passable franchise QB for years. Look at how much the Cardinals offense struggled this year once Hopkins got hurt. Allen's development as a passer just happens to coincide with them adding Diggs. Tons of examples that show having a top tier guy just unlocks a next level for a QB.

This year will be very interesting because I think both Rodgers and Mahomes will struggle without their top options. They won't be bad but I don't see them being back to back MVP or three straight AFCCG good. 

 

travdogg

Footballguy
Kind of cheating, but I'd rather just spend more than 50 million. I'd rather be elite at both, and take the hit elsewhere. 

Sort of a thought exercise, but if I were looking at a franchise and could basically have 5 elite high priced players, I'd want a QB, 2 pass catchers(either WR or TE) a LT, and a pass rusher. For example, let's say you have to pick a team to win a game tomorrow, so age is irrelevant, its just win 1 game. You get 5 players, and every other position is mediocre outside of your 5. I'd pick Aaron Rodgers, George Kittle, Travis Kelce, Trent Williams, and Aaron Donald. YMMV 

 

jon007

Footballguy
Agreed. Many teams provide something of a roadmap to success. That was just a year where things came together. Still fun, but nothing to learn from, really. 


The 2017 Eagles dominated the line of scrimmage that year. This is a link to the 2017 team stats and the Eagles were top 5 in many categories.
https://www.espn.com/nfl/stats/_/view/team/season/2017

The one piece that gets over shadowed is that the Eagles were a pass first team but had a top 5 rushing team.

 

Ilov80s

Footballguy
Justin Herbert and DK Metcalf would be a fun combo. But to your main point, I’m definitely paying the QB. If I have to lose a WR to keep my star QB then so be it.

 

DropKick

Footballguy
Justin Herbert and DK Metcalf would be a fun combo. But to your main point, I’m definitely paying the QB. If I have to lose a WR to keep my star QB then so be it.
Congratulations, that combo would cost you $8 million for 2022 so you still have $42 million to spend.  Demonstrates the flexibility you have when studs are on rookie deals.

I will note that the Herbert offense was neutralized at times last year because their defense couldn't stop the run.  Interesting to think about how you would build a team and where you would allocate money.

 

BoltBacker

Footballguy
Wise Old Owl said:
This year will be very interesting because I think both Rodgers and Mahomes will struggle without their top options. They won't be bad but I don't see them being back to back MVP or three straight AFCCG good. 
I'm a Tua-believer and hope he'll extend plays long enough to take advantage of Hill in MIA but if you ask me Hill is going to miss KC a lot more than Mahomes is going to miss Hill. And maybe this is what this entire thread boils down to. KC lost Hill and we can debate whether they will be back in the CONFERENCE CHAMPIONSHIP. If KC had kept Hill and Mahomes had left the team for any reason we would be debating if KC is an above .500 team or not. And it would probably take 5 years to find the next Mahomes. Maybe this is a bold statement but I think it's entirely possible that KC could draft a late first round WR this year that could have comparable stats to what I expect Hill to do in MIA now that he's away from Mahomes/Reid. 

I think you make a great case with Hopkins going down and the entire team imploding because of it. Maybe that at least is partially due to the fact Murray is only 24yo, maybe he's more limited than I think he is. I do think that Murray is going to sign a contract that absolutely dwarfs what Hopkins is making and if ARZ was interested in trading Murray they would get at least twice what they gave up for Hopkins.

I'm less convinced with the Green argument, and think that may even be a cautionary tale for teams like SEA that are tempted to rebuild from the WR position. Firstly I don't think Metcalf is nearly as good at the game of football as peak AJ Green was. But even as great as AJ Green was he couldn't will that franchise to a playoff victory. Worse yet he was good enough to make the team look just above .500 and ensure that CIN was never bad enough to draft a replacement for Dalton because they were always drafting in the middle of each round.

 

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