Your 1st round pick does not matter this year (1 Viewer)

[Gravity]

I have been analyzing and agonizing over my 1st round pick this year (Pick # 6 in 12 team PPR) when it suddenly hit me:

Your 1st round pick is not going to matter.

There is no LT or Holmes this year that is so far ahead that you need to jump through hoops to catch up at a later pick in the 1st round or employ an entire draft strategy counteracting the LT owner.

Its not going to matter if I take Mccoy or AJ or even Vick at number 6. (Same applies to virtually every first round slot I think).

There is so much parity between the RB's and WR's in the first round that you can take any of the first 5-6 RB's or any of the 1st 5-6WR's and you are all still at an even playing field.

They key is to have be prepared to go in any direction and then maneuver your rounds 2-6 based on what you took in Round 1.

This may be obvious to many, but I am seeing so many threads and discussions on Rice vs Charles or where CJ or Foster or AJ or Rodgers should be picked. Or if Roddy should go before AJ or maybe even Fitz. It just doesn't matter.

The first round is a complete wash this year. The draft only starts this year in round 2.

 

[joffer]

i disagree. if you take Peterson, Foster, and Rice for example. One of them will most likely underperform the other two by a significant amount.

 

[ppierce]

It generally never really matters. We spend so much time agonizing on our first selection that we tend to neglet the later rounds. Fantasy is won from rounds 4 and on and thru the waiver wire.

 

[Gravity]

i disagree. if you take Peterson, Foster, and Rice for example. One of them will most likely underperform the other two by a significant amount.

Can you unpack that for me?

 

[Ignoratio Elenchi]

The draft only starts this year in round 2.

Gupspeak. Hawks know the draft doesn't really start until round 12 (except round 5 is important this year, as well).

 

[Michael Brown]

i disagree. if you take Peterson, Foster, and Rice for example. One of them will most likely underperform the other two by a significant amount.

Not necessarily saying I agree with the OP either, but why is one of these any more likely to underperform the other two? Just because there is typically a lot of turnover in the first round from year to year, that doesn't necessarily mean that one of these specific guys is any more likely to bust.

 

[Short Corner]

It generally never really matters. We spend so much time agonizing on our first selection that we tend to neglet the later rounds. Fantasy is won from rounds 4 and on and thru the waiver wire.

You can't win your league in the first 4 rounds but you can lose it.

 

[Gravity]

It generally never really matters. We spend so much time agonizing on our first selection that we tend to neglet the later rounds. Fantasy is won from rounds 4 and on and thru the waiver wire.

You can't win your league in the first 4 rounds but you can lose it.

Thats my point. Barring catastrophic injury, no one is losing anything this year due to the first round.

 

[karmarooster]

you're first round pick DOES matter, especially if you take a risky player like CJ, Vick, or now Foster. If you eschew that risk and stick with safer bets like McCoy, Mendenhall, Roddy, or Calvin, then you should be fine. I tend to be the most risk-averse in the first round, and then progressively take greater and greater risks as the rounds go by.

Just because there is no clear #1 stud does not mean the first round does not matter - you can still lose your league in the first.

 

[joffer]

i disagree. if you take Peterson, Foster, and Rice for example. One of them will most likely underperform the other two by a significant amount.

Not necessarily saying I agree with the OP either, but why is one of these any more likely to underperform the other two? Just because there is typically a lot of turnover in the first round from year to year, that doesn't necessarily mean that one of these specific guys is any more likely to bust.

substitute any names you wish. there are busts in the first round. if you draft one of them, it certainly matters.

 

[Short Corner]

It generally never really matters. We spend so much time agonizing on our first selection that we tend to neglet the later rounds. Fantasy is won from rounds 4 and on and thru the waiver wire.

You can't win your league in the first 4 rounds but you can lose it.

Thats my point. Barring catastrophic injury, no one is losing anything this year due to the first round.

try reading it again Chachi.

 

[FDC]

I have been analyzing and agonizing over my 1st round pick this year (Pick # 6 in 12 team PPR)

No wonder then, 6th pick is easy. What about if you are on the tail end of the round and are debating between McFadden, MJD, Gore, Turner, Vick, etc?Tail end 1st round busts of recent years: Randy Moss 10Mathews 10LT 09Slaton 09Addai 08LJ 08Not all are injury related...