Your thoughts on this draft strategy... (1 Viewer)

[Johnny]

If you are drafting at the end of round one this may be a strategy to consider.

Yes your running backs will be weak. However, you are drafting 3 players that going into the season are considered the top 3 players at QB, WR, TE.

Can this strategy work? VBD is telling me to take these 3 players. Does it make sense?

your thoughts.

 

[gregjcross]

I did this draft in a mock, and got Adrian Peterson and Fred Taylor at RB; then Jericho Cothery as a second WR.Peyton Manning QB (IND) 6Steve Smith WR (CAR) 7Antonio Gates TE (SD) 7Adrian Peterson RB (MIN) 5Baltimore Defense DEF (BAL) 8Fred Taylor RB (JAC) 4Santonio Holmes WR (PIT) 6Jerricho Cotchery WR (NYJ) 10Chris Cooley TE (WAS) 4Brandon Jones WR (TEN) 4Ben Roethlisberger QB (PIT) 6Dwayne Jarrett WR (CAR) 7Anthony Thomas RB (BUF) 6Kenny Irons RB (CIN) 5Rob Bironas PK (TEN) 4

If you are drafting at the end of round one this may be a strategy to consider. Yes your running backs will be weak. However, you are drafting 3 players that going into the season are considered the top 3 players at QB, WR, TE. Can this strategy work? VBD is telling me to take these 3 players. Does it make sense?your thoughts.

 

[Mystery Achiever]

However, you are drafting 3 players that going into the season are considered the top 3 players at QB, WR, TE.

I think there is less of a drop off from the top in these categories to the next tier, so I would question whether you gain enough to make up for the loss at rb...but I am a chronic/biased early rb drafter.

 

[Brutis]

I would leave out the possibility of Gates in rd3. I dont have a problem with the strategy of taking Manning rd1 and SSmith in rd2 but i would go with a Jacobs/Ahman/Marshawn Lynch combo in rd3 and 4 just to make sure I had 2 starting rb's.

 

[Chase Stuart]

I think it's a fine strategy but I wouldn't take Manning in the first. Grabbing Smith and Gates could work out very well, though.

 

[Captain Hook]

If you are drafting at the end of round one this may be a strategy to consider. Yes your running backs will be weak. However, you are drafting 3 players that going into the season are considered the top 3 players at QB, WR, TE. Can this strategy work? VBD is telling me to take these 3 players. Does it make sense?your thoughts.

Want to give us a hint on how many teams in the league? PPR? Lineup requirements? Scoring?

 

[KnowledgeReignsSupreme]

I think you'd have trouble getting all 3 in a 12 team league from most draft positions. Maybe if you switched the order to Steve Smith, Manning, Gates and picked in the middle of the first.

Of course you'd have to actually think that was a good idea, which I don't. Locking in on 3 players no matter what is not a good idea.

 

[Demons]

Gates likely won't be there at the end of the third. He should go early third. Smith and Manning are solid at those two spots.

I would lock in on two RB's at the end of the third, beginning of the fourth. Or maybe two more top WR's. The strategy depends on the scoring (PPR?).

 

[BigRed]

GB auctions. I can have those 3 guys and a top RB besides. OK so my depth won't be great....

 

[cobalt_27]

I think it's a fine strategy but I wouldn't take Manning in the first. Grabbing Smith and Gates could work out very well, though.

Manning should be available to him in the 4th Round. QB position is totally irrelevant in most leagues.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

If you are drafting at the end of round one this may be a strategy to consider. Yes your running backs will be weak. However, you are drafting 3 players that going into the season are considered the top 3 players at QB, WR, TE. Can this strategy work? VBD is telling me to take these 3 players. Does it make sense?your thoughts.

What RB are you passing on?You can land a top5 QB like Marc Bulger much later which makes the Manning pick unnecessary. Steve Smith? Did he finish #1 last year? Why take him there...lots of great WR can be had in the sweet spots of rounds 3-7.

 

[Assani Fisher]

If you don't get a RB in your first two picks then I think you almost have to take 2 RBs with your next 2 picks and one more with either pick #5 or #6. YOu need some depth at RB to play the matchups.

In general I think you want to draft in such a manner that lets you be flexible with your next picks and not have to take one position so that if someone drops you can draft him...doing this does not let you do that at all.

 

[Demons]

The problem with the picks at the turn is that you have to set trends, not follow them. Manning has consistency going for him, but I agree with others that you can get a good to great QB in the 4th or 5th round. Taking Gates and Smith with your first two picks forces the hand of others to an extent, plus you now have the TE position cleared.

Gates is so much better than the next best TE that it is hard to argue with him going that early.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

The problem with the picks at the turn is that you have to set trends, not follow them. Manning has consistency going for him, but I agree with others that you can get a good to great QB in the 4th or 5th round. Taking Gates and Smith with your first two picks forces the hand of others to an extent, plus you now have the TE position cleared.

Gates is so much better than the next best TE that it is hard to argue with him going that early.

Gonzalez and Crumpler were pretty good as 2nd and 3rd last season...BUT is anyone comfortable with the QB situations for those two this season...and I think that is where your statement holds the most water. So I guess I am in agreement with you but wanted to make a point. I don't think Gates will be much further ahead than whoever ends up 2nd or 3rd again this season...BUT knowing who exactly that will be is kinda hard to gauge right now.

 

[David Yudkin]

Baltimore Defense DEF (BAL) 8

Unless there is some really funky scoring system, taking BAL in the 5th is a HUGE reach. The last draft I was in, they went 11.10 in a 12-team league.

 

[Horrorshow]

I've been mocking an awful lot from 1.11 with a RB/WR/WR/RB strat - with the intention of snagging Gates over a receiver in the third if available. He hasn't fallen that far down very frequently in my experience.

I usually end up with Steve Smith or Chad Johnson at 2.02, Lee Evans at 3.11 and Ahman Green in the fourth. I guess it leaves you with an ordinary set of RB starters but you can counter that with an excellent trio of WR's by selecting Satana Moss or Jerricho at the bottom of the fifth.

 

[Johnny]

my league is a 10 team league.

6pts all TD's

1 pt every 10 rushing and receiving

1 pt every 25 yards passing

1 pt per reception

I am just asking if you like the strategy.

I draft at the bottom of draft.

my though process is this.....

the teams at the top of the draft who are taking LT, Jackson, Gore, LJ all will be taking WR's in the 2nd and WR's in the 3rd. Well that is basically what I was planning on doing at my pick. So they already have a better team then me cause of the RB1.

Yes I can go RB RB with my first 2 picks but I think these RB's are all risky. I think the safe play is my strategy. Also I am now drafting different then everyone else.

Can it work?

right now my VBD has Manning 3, Steve smith 9, and Gates 15th Overall.

 

[FFdork]

Since I've been playing FF seriously, this is the deepest year I can remember for the RB position, so if there was ever a year you could wait a bit, it's this year. If you look at ADP there are a lot of intriguing RBs available in the middle rounds. None of them are home runs, but if you can hedge your bets by scooping a couple of them, there's a good chance at least one will pan out.

Like others, I would be inclined to get a very solid RB in the first round instead of Manning. Each time I mock draft there are QBs available in rounds 6-8 that I'm very comfortable with as my starter. If you like to take bigger risks, you can wait even later and get backups with starter upside.

Since I have at least one other guy in my leagues that uses VBD, it has been a long time since Antonio Gates was available at the end of the 3rd round, but if he is there in a TE mandatory league, that's a very good pick.

 

[einstein2u]

Since I've been playing FF seriously, this is the deepest year I can remember for the RB position, so if there was ever a year you could wait a bit, it's this year. If you look at ADP there are a lot of intriguing RBs available in the middle rounds. None of them are home runs, but if you can hedge your bets by scooping a couple of them, there's a good chance at least one will pan out.Like others, I would be inclined to get a very solid RB in the first round instead of Manning. Each time I mock draft there are QBs available in rounds 6-8 that I'm very comfortable with as my starter. If you like to take bigger risks, you can wait even later and get backups with starter upside.Since I have at least one other guy in my leagues that uses VBD, it has been a long time since Antonio Gates was available at the end of the 3rd round, but if he is there in a TE mandatory league, that's a very good pick.

i agree.this year i have the first pick overall and plan on going LT/stud WR/stud WRand reaching for the ahmen green, fred taylors, d. fosters of the world.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

my league is a 10 team league.

6pts all TD's

1 pt every 10 rushing and receiving

1 pt every 25 yards passing

1 pt per reception

I am just asking if you like the strategy.

I draft at the bottom of draft.

my though process is this.....

the teams at the top of the draft who are taking LT, Jackson, Gore, LJ all will be taking WR's in the 2nd and WR's in the 3rd. Well that is basically what I was planning on doing at my pick. So they already have a better team then me cause of the RB1.

Yes I can go RB RB with my first 2 picks but I think these RB's are all risky. I think the safe play is my strategy. Also I am now drafting different then everyone else.

Can it work?

right now my VBD has Manning 3, Steve smith 9, and Gates 15th Overall.

Can you name these risky RB that you think will be there at 1.11, 1.12, 2.01 and 2.02 or wherever you have the picks? I bet they aren't as risky as you might think.

 

[David Yudkin]

my league is a 10 team league.

6pts all TD's

1 pt every 10 rushing and receiving

1 pt every 25 yards passing

1 pt per reception

I am just asking if you like the strategy.

I draft at the bottom of draft.

my though process is this.....

the teams at the top of the draft who are taking LT, Jackson, Gore, LJ all will be taking WR's in the 2nd and WR's in the 3rd. Well that is basically what I was planning on doing at my pick. So they already have a better team then me cause of the RB1.

Yes I can go RB RB with my first 2 picks but I think these RB's are all risky. I think the safe play is my strategy. Also I am now drafting different then everyone else.

Can it work?

right now my VBD has Manning 3, Steve smith 9, and Gates 15th Overall.

Can you name these risky RB that you think will be there at 1.11, 1.12, 2.01 and 2.02 or wherever you have the picks? I bet they aren't as risky as you might think.

They may or may not be risky, but they also may or may not be more valuable than guys you can get later. You probably won't get the same level of WR by the time you pick again.

 

[Slum Lord]

That all sounds good on paper, but can you remember anyone not picking a RB with thier first 3 picks and making the playoffs?

 

[K9 Hokie]

i agree.this year i have the first pick overall and plan on going LT/stud WR/stud WRand reaching for the ahmen green, fred taylors, d. fosters of the world.

I am also drafting 1st pick (PPR). I think going LT/stud WR/Gates might be a good option as well.

 

[Mr. Fusion]

my league is a 10 team league. 6pts all TD's1 pt every 10 rushing and receiving1 pt every 25 yards passing1 pt per reception

Knowing that your scoring is 6pts for all TDs, I would happily take Manning in the 1st round from your spot. In a PPR league, Smith's value goes up along with Gates. It's a risky strategy, but I think it is better than drafting mediocre talent at each position - which many people drafting near the end of a round do. I just wouldn't be absolutely locked in to any of these players (besides Manning perhaps) and keep an eye on the value of each player when you pick.

 

[SSOG]

I personally don't like the strategy that much. I love going Manning/Smiff, or Smiff/Gates, or Manning/Gates, but I feel like there is a ton of value at RB in the late first to mid second round this year, and I would hate to miss out on it. I feel like that third tier of RBs (everyone behind the top 4) is positively huge this season. I'd love a Brian Westbrook/Steve Smith/Antonio Gates team or a Peyton Manning/Travis Henry/Antonio Gates team far more than I'd love a Manning/Smiff/Gates team.

I think it's a fine strategy but I wouldn't take Manning in the first. Grabbing Smith and Gates could work out very well, though.

Manning should be available to him in the 4th Round. QB position is totally irrelevant in most leagues.

What are you talking about?I know you play in leagues with very non-standard scoring, so I question how familiar you are with standard-scoring leagues. I can tell you one thing for sure- no way Manning ever makes it to the 4th round. Ever. For *ANY REASON*. Hell, I betcha it's only one draft in a thousand where Manning would even call as far as the 3rd round. 99.9% of the time, Manning's going in round 1 or round 2- and well he should!

That all sounds good on paper, but can you remember anyone not picking a RB with thier first 3 picks and making the playoffs?

Yup. Several people, actually- which is really saying something, given how rare it is for someone to not pick an RB with any of their first three picks. Even more, I remember that in 2004, I was in a league with someone who grabbed Ricky Williams with his first rounder, Marshall Faulk with his second rounder, and Travis Henry with his third rounder. Ricky Williams retired, Marshall Faulk finished 29th among RBs, and Travis Henry finished 73rd among RBs. The owner won the superbowl.The first three picks are not NEARLY as important as everyone makes them out to be. People like to pretend that if one or two of your first three picks busts, your entire season went down the drains. Newsflash: 50% of draft picks, even high draft picks, bust. Sure, it puts you behind the eight ball a bit, but not too far behind because EVERYONE ELSE'S draft picks are busy busting, too. That's the nice thing about a Manning or a Gates- low bust risk, which means that you're practically guaranteed an advantage over half the teams in the league straight out of the gate.

 

[s_ezy]

I'd much rather take a RB in the first then take a QB in the 4th or 5th, the drop off between manning vs., brady, brees, bulger, mcnabb isn't all that much

 

[fatkid]

It sounds like you are not running a Snake Draft and instead you pick at the end of each round. Is that correct?

The player I have the biggest issue with in this strategy is Steve Smith. Manning at the end of Round 1 is fine especially with 6pts per TD, Gates at the end of Round 3 is great I agree that other TEs seem to be regressing. Smith at the end of round 2 is where I would start to look for other options. I think you could find a RB at the 20th pick that would help you more than Smith. Look at your expected options taking a RB at the 20th pick, and a WR at 40th and see if you like your team better.

According to ESPN The RBs around 20 are Jones-Drew, McAllister, Benson, Jones, Portis, James, Barber, and Jacobs.

ESPN Currently has Ownes ranked at 39, Fitzgerald at 41, and Driver at 42. These are fine options for WR1, that can be had at around pick 40. The Running backs in that area are Caddilac Williams at 42 and Lynch at 38. You may be able to snag Norwood in that area also.

I personally would be happier with Portis and Fitzgerald or Driver rather than Smith and Norwood or Lynch.

 

[John Mamula]

I am just asking if you like the strategy. Can it work?

No.Maybe, if you get lucky later.

 

[SSOG]

I am just asking if you like the strategy. Can it work?

No.Maybe, if you get lucky later.

To suggest that a strategy simply can't work is ludicrous. As I said, 50% of draft picks bust, so even if all three players go entirely down the crapper, it's not like you're that far behind the 8-ball compared to the rest of your league-mates.

 

[Burning Sensation]

Those were my first 3 picks in a ten team league from the 10 spot last year. I also followed it up with Reggie Wayne in the 4th. Normally i take RB's early and often, but because it was a ten team league, i thought i would take a chance on having the best QB, WR, TE in the league. I ended up with Warrick Dunn, Chester Taylor and Laurence Maroney at RB. I lost in the championship game to a team that was clearly superior to mine.

 

[Johnny]

I am not trying to make this about my league. I really am asking a strategy question about taking these 3 players with your first 3 picks.

In regards to the questions being asked. I have the 8th pick. So I would be taking Manning at 8, Steve Smith at 13, and Gates at 28.

I am not sure which one will be available but one of Addai, Westbrook, parker, or Alexander will be available to me at pick 8. Well I am sorry but I fell you are taking a major risk with these players at my pick.

Addai - never has played a full season at the guy, injuried in college, and was dinged up last year. On paper the opportunity looks great. But totally risk pick in the 1st round.

westbrook - man if he stayed healthy in my league he is golden. He was always a great value pick in the 3rd round. Now for the first time he is being drafting in the first. He gets hurt every year and you never know if he is going to play each week.

Parker - I actually really like Parker. Don't think he will be available. I feel he is durable and a solid running back. my concern is will he still get the goal line carries. I also think he will get a few more catches. I think last year was a career year. What I don't like he sucks against a good defense.

Alexander - we just don't know what will happen with Alexander this year. He could be great. He may not be great. He may be just ok. At pick at if you can get Alexander I am assuming you will have some upside. But I feel he is a risk.

and in the 2nd round no matter what I did in the 1st I will 100% be taking a WR.

The reason I say Manning is cause you don't have the risk with him like the RB's

My thought process is to win in Fantasy Football you need to have the skill and knowledge to make it to the playoffs but you need to get a little lucky in the playoffs to make some money.

Well does this strategy get me into the playoffs? That is the goal then see what happens.

You can have the top QB, top WR, and top TE. All high scoring potential players with limited risk as your first 3 picks.

 

[SSOG]

I am not trying to make this about my league. I really am asking a strategy question about taking these 3 players with your first 3 picks. In regards to the questions being asked. I have the 8th pick. So I would be taking Manning at 8, Steve Smith at 13, and Gates at 28. I am not sure which one will be available but one of Addai, Westbrook, parker, or Alexander will be available to me at pick 8. Well I am sorry but I fell you are taking a major risk with these players at my pick.Addai - never has played a full season at the guy, injuried in college, and was dinged up last year. On paper the opportunity looks great. But totally risk pick in the 1st round.westbrook - man if he stayed healthy in my league he is golden. He was always a great value pick in the 3rd round. Now for the first time he is being drafting in the first. He gets hurt every year and you never know if he is going to play each week. Parker - I actually really like Parker. Don't think he will be available. I feel he is durable and a solid running back. my concern is will he still get the goal line carries. I also think he will get a few more catches. I think last year was a career year. What I don't like he sucks against a good defense. Alexander - we just don't know what will happen with Alexander this year. He could be great. He may not be great. He may be just ok. At pick at if you can get Alexander I am assuming you will have some upside. But I feel he is a risk. and in the 2nd round no matter what I did in the 1st I will 100% be taking a WR. The reason I say Manning is cause you don't have the risk with him like the RB's My thought process is to win in Fantasy Football you need to have the skill and knowledge to make it to the playoffs but you need to get a little lucky in the playoffs to make some money. Well does this strategy get me into the playoffs? That is the goal then see what happens.You can have the top QB, top WR, and top TE. All high scoring potential players with limited risk as your first 3 picks.

The problem is that this year, I feel like the difference between WR1 and WR6-8 is pretty much negligible. Manning and Gates are so valuable because they're so far ahead of their peers. I don't see a single WR that can make a similar claim.

 

[1huskerfan]

It depends on the year and I don't think this is a year where it can work. I have pulled WR-WR-WR from the 12 hole and you have to carpet bomb the RBs in rounds 4-10. IMHO the difference between RB12 and RB20 will be greater than the difference between WR1 and WR10.