ignatiusjreilly
Footballguy
This came up in the Indy-Arizona game thread. Cards were down nine, drove to the Indy 10 yard line and then, after two incomplete passes, kicked a FG on 3rd down with 42 seconds left to make it a six-point game. Colts recovered the onside kick and the game was over.
I feel like this topic comes up every time teams are driving in the 4th quarter down between 9-11 points, and I still can't figure out what the optimal strategy is. (Although according to every single color commentator, you should kick the FG as soon as possible, which inclines me to think you should never kick the FG because those guys are always wrong.)
Obviously, there are various permutations. If you're down 10 or 11, IMO you really want to score the TD first if possible, because then you also preserve the possibility of scoring a second TD and winning in regulation. It also matters how close you get on that first drive, how much time is left, and how reliable your FG kicker is. (Beating up on the TV announcers some more, because why not, I recall an MNF game where Gruden was urging a team down 10 to kick a 50+ yard FG with like two minutes left; I can't imagine any analytical model that would recommend that strategy.)
Anyway, I was curious if any of the smart analytics guys like Chase Stuart or the 538.com nerds had ever come up with a framework for that scenario, like, "You should kick the FG if the following conditions are met; otherwise try to score the TD." Or maybe it's impossible to come up with a framework because there are too many independent variables.
Anyone know?
(In tonight's game, I'm not sure what the smartest option would have been, but kicking on 3rd down from the 10 definitely seemed suboptimal. At least take one more shot at the end zone before you kick.)
I feel like this topic comes up every time teams are driving in the 4th quarter down between 9-11 points, and I still can't figure out what the optimal strategy is. (Although according to every single color commentator, you should kick the FG as soon as possible, which inclines me to think you should never kick the FG because those guys are always wrong.)
Obviously, there are various permutations. If you're down 10 or 11, IMO you really want to score the TD first if possible, because then you also preserve the possibility of scoring a second TD and winning in regulation. It also matters how close you get on that first drive, how much time is left, and how reliable your FG kicker is. (Beating up on the TV announcers some more, because why not, I recall an MNF game where Gruden was urging a team down 10 to kick a 50+ yard FG with like two minutes left; I can't imagine any analytical model that would recommend that strategy.)
Anyway, I was curious if any of the smart analytics guys like Chase Stuart or the 538.com nerds had ever come up with a framework for that scenario, like, "You should kick the FG if the following conditions are met; otherwise try to score the TD." Or maybe it's impossible to come up with a framework because there are too many independent variables.
Anyone know?
(In tonight's game, I'm not sure what the smartest option would have been, but kicking on 3rd down from the 10 definitely seemed suboptimal. At least take one more shot at the end zone before you kick.)