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Zac Stacy is the highest drafted 5th round or later NFL pick in dynast (2 Viewers)
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And Stacy's 3Cone was very good. Tied with Bradshaw for 10th best from 1999+. RBs as good or better:
Chris Rainey
Garrett Wolfe
Dante' Hall
Ahmad Bradshaw
Ketric Sanford
Ray Rice
Graig Cooper
Keith Brown
Roy Helu
Christine Michael
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That's the perfect list to make a case for Satcy's value. Out of those 11 guys, 2 of them have had any significant fantasy value. 18% chance of success sounds about right.
Holy Schneikes
Footballguy
Take Michael out, we don't know anything about him yet. How many 2nd round picks would you give up for a 11% chance at Ray Rice and a 11% chance at Bradshaw? I'd give up quite a few.
Ray Rice was a 2nd round pick, as a prospect him and Stacy were thought of as completely different talent levels.
Nothing wrong with that strategy. I just prefer to give a little more once I know it's a sure thing. I let other guys throw the darts. To each his own though.
Instinctive
Footballguy
Great thread...because it is really making me think of targeting Pead in a lot of leagues, and has especially put him on the radar in redrafts if you're gonna take a late shot at one of the StL backs.
Holy Schneikes
Footballguy
Maybe so, but that wasn't my point. The point is that that particular metric, used to downplay his chances to succeed, doesn't make a whole lot of sense. Especially when you start throwing random percentages at it and those percentages are actually pretty favorable for a 2nd round pick.
My updated top-25 comps based on combine measurements (all must have 40 times, shuttles, and 3Cones)
Doug Martin
Kendall Hunter
Ray Rice
J.J. Arrington
Javon Ringer
Jerome Harrison
Delone Carter
Ketric Sanford
Doug Chapman
Brian Allen
Ryan Williams
LaDainian Tomlinson
Ahmad Bradshaw
Vai Taua
Graig Cooper
Bernard Scott
Felix Jones
Tyrell Sutton
Dion Lewis
Stevan Ridley
Knowshon Moreno
Shane Vereen
Jahvid Best
Keith Brown
Donald Brown
I think the key thing I'm missing is long speed. The top backs in this list have it, and there's no combine measurement for it. Stacy's #1 weakness is he doesn't have much breakaway speed, and doesn't top 20 yards too often.
Now that I have college play by play data dating back to 2005, I'll be add some better comparable variables I think.
Doug Martin
Kendall Hunter
Ray Rice
J.J. Arrington
Javon Ringer
Jerome Harrison
Delone Carter
Ketric Sanford
Doug Chapman
Brian Allen
Ryan Williams
LaDainian Tomlinson
Ahmad Bradshaw
Vai Taua
Graig Cooper
Bernard Scott
Felix Jones
Tyrell Sutton
Dion Lewis
Stevan Ridley
Knowshon Moreno
Shane Vereen
Jahvid Best
Keith Brown
Donald Brown
I think the key thing I'm missing is long speed. The top backs in this list have it, and there's no combine measurement for it. Stacy's #1 weakness is he doesn't have much breakaway speed, and doesn't top 20 yards too often.
Now that I have college play by play data dating back to 2005, I'll be add some better comparable variables I think.
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Holy Schneikes
Footballguy
It's not really a strategy. It's the name of the game in the 2nd round. They are ALL long shots at that point in the draft. The question is which long shots to take.
The deal with multiple 2nds was just kind of an inverse to illustrate value. Not that I would literally try to acquire 5 2nd round picks and spend them on guys like Stacy. The more direct thing would be to say, hey, if you REALLY believe those are the odds you are looking at, they really aren't that bad at that spot.
I get it. But it's still a strategy. Drafting is like playing darts and stepping back 10 ft at the end of each round. Your chance get's less and less likely of hitting a bull's eye every round. I'd rather trade my 2nd-5th round picks for veterans if the opportunity is there. That's my strategy. Yours is throwing the dart from 50ft away. Not a problem. Maybe you have better aim than I do.
Biabreakable
Footballguy
Jackson 2012-
257 1042 4 46 4.1 65.1 16.1 38 321 8.4 or 1363 total yards.
http://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/J/JackSt00.htm
Jackson had a reduced workload in 2012 I think in part because the Rams knew he would walk at the end of the season, so they needed to try to get someone ready to bridge that gap. I do think there will be a time share of sorts, Fischer has stated such, Richardson will likely retain his COP role unless Pead can beat him out, I think Stacy will get the most touches out of the 3 RB. I could easily see Stacy not having as many carries as Jackson did last season as a rookie through. The thing is I think Stacy is the best blocking RB on their roster. There really isn't anything the other 2 RB can do better than him. So because of that I could see him being busier than Fischer may want the distribution ideally to be. It still comes down to who gives the team the best chance to win.
I expect the passing attempts for the Rams to pick up this season and that could mean the Rams run less than the 410ra they had last season. Passing attempts from Bradford could certainly increase now that they do not have Jackson to lean on. I do think Austin gets some rushing attempts as well though and that may eat into the COP carries somewhat. If Stacy does start going off I could also see the Rams changing gears and featuring him more later in the season.
Don't you mean pole?
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Sabertooth
Footballguy
I see he did go over 1k. Just barely. My MFL stat thing on him ended week 16, so didn't account for week 17.Jackson 2012-
257 1042 4 46 4.1 65.1 16.1 38 321 8.4 or 1363 total yards.
http://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/J/JackSt00.htm
Jackson had a reduced workload in 2012 I think in part because the Rams knew he would walk at the end of the season, so they needed to try to get someone ready to bridge that gap. I do think there will be a time share of sorts, Fischer has stated such, Richardson will likely retain his COP role unless Pead can beat him out, I think Stacy will get the most touches out of the 3 RB. I could easily see Stacy not having as many carries as Jackson did last season as a rookie through. The thing is I think Stacy is the best blocking RB on their roster. There really isn't anything the other 2 RB can do better than him. So because of that I could see him being busier than Fischer may want the distribution ideally to be. It still comes down to who gives the team the best chance to win.
I expect the passing attempts for the Rams to pick up this season and that could mean the Rams run less than the 410ra they had last season. Passing attempts from Bradford could certainly increase now that they do not have Jackson to lean on. I do think Austin gets some rushing attempts as well though and that may eat into the COP carries somewhat. If Stacy does start going off I could also see the Rams changing gears and featuring him more later in the season.
Don't you mean pole?
As for Stacy, I just can't get over the fact that he was a late 5th rounder and I think people are way overpayin for him. He does remind me of the hype on some other guys like Pinner. Opportunity does not equal value.
massraider
Footballguy
Yeah. I think if someone really thought Stacey was underrated coming out of college, fine. Be excited about the opportunity. Just think you have too many owners with mid-late rookie 1st rounders, looking for a reason to believe.Sabertooth said:
Tell you what makes me nervous. No one is pulling up YouTube clips, saying, 'Check out these skills!"
Nope, it's all comparisons that really have nothing to do with talent, or going on about his competition. It's also easy, if you are a Richardson guy, to say, "hey, all he has to do is beat out Pead, and this late 5th rounder....."
Having opportunity doesn't mean a guy can play.
Holy Schneikes
Footballguy
Check out these skills!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZOpxitB7opA
There, you feel better?
In all seriousness, those highlights aren't crap. Dude has some power, AND can make people miss when he needs to.
Honestly, I factor in draft position as much as most, so you HAVE to add some risk to him based on that. But I can't really figure out why he fell. All the pieces are there. He's got good tape, good stats, good measurables, no red flags I've heard of, so I'm a little confused.
If you put aside draft position (you shouldn't, and I don't, but as an exercise), is there really much difference between Bell and Stacy? Bell has gone first in several leagues I've seen.
This is the biggest red flag. If he had some character/injury issues and fell there would be a reason for him being drafted so late.
He has a huge playing sample for NFL scouts to see, he has great character, and no major injury issues. The guys in the NFL who evaluate talent just don't think he is very good. I'd feel a lot better about his future if he fell due to other issues outside of talent.
He has everything you want as a person, he just wasn't viewed as very talented as an actual RB by the NFL guys.
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Biabreakable
Footballguy
For what its worth I like Stacy more than Ball. I do like Denvers situation better obviously, I just think Stacy has more talent.
I see what u did there HS. Nice call.
ETA- For Saberdoofs fishing trip I just want to say Jackson had over 360 more yards than the 1k you said he could not accomplish, and opportunity is about 50% or so of what makes up a players value.
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I'm kinda curious why shanahan chose Chris Thompson over Stacy. If Stacy is all the things people in this thread are saying about him, I would think shanahan would have also been privy to this info and would have jumped all over him. I know this means very little in the grand scheme of things, but it does make you stop and think maybe there's just something that we as youtube scouts don't know about Stacy.
Xue
Footballguy
Sabertooth
Footballguy
ShaHBucks
Footballguy
I never thought draft position and success/talent went hand and hand. Who knows how many Tom Brady's and Kurt Warner's there are that will never get a shot to play in the league because a coach/GMs continually think they can fix Brady Quinn. That's really inefficient business. Late round picks are one of the best contracts in football. The price you pay for production from Zac Stacy will cost a lot less than Tavon Austin, sort of like Pead and Richardson last season or Alfred Morris vs Trent Richardson. There were no backs drafted in the 1st round. That's another reason I'm taking the draft position argument with a grain of salt.
I had issues with Stacy's college production, but he was on a bad SEC team. He is the best NFL caliber RB on the Rams right now. I have no fear of Pead or Richardson becoming a every down starter, but I do fear a committee because Pead coming out if college looked like a ideal 3rd down back. Stacy is not as talented as Ball or Lacy, but his 2013 outlook has equal/better odds at 200+ carries. He's a good RB who's circumstance could drive his production like Alfred Morris did a season ago. If he gets the workload he will have 1,000+ yards with 10+ TDs and everyone will be excited. I'm not as optimistic he can survive in a committee. His comps, to me, is like Mark Ingram with sensational agility. His production will probably mirror Ingram's as I mentioned with the committee vs main carry RB. I see value as a mid-late 1st round rookie draft pick with 2013 in mind. 2014+ I would not be as committed. He could easily have his value cut to pieces like Vick Ballard just did.
I had issues with Stacy's college production, but he was on a bad SEC team. He is the best NFL caliber RB on the Rams right now. I have no fear of Pead or Richardson becoming a every down starter, but I do fear a committee because Pead coming out if college looked like a ideal 3rd down back. Stacy is not as talented as Ball or Lacy, but his 2013 outlook has equal/better odds at 200+ carries. He's a good RB who's circumstance could drive his production like Alfred Morris did a season ago. If he gets the workload he will have 1,000+ yards with 10+ TDs and everyone will be excited. I'm not as optimistic he can survive in a committee. His comps, to me, is like Mark Ingram with sensational agility. His production will probably mirror Ingram's as I mentioned with the committee vs main carry RB. I see value as a mid-late 1st round rookie draft pick with 2013 in mind. 2014+ I would not be as committed. He could easily have his value cut to pieces like Vick Ballard just did.
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Keith Lewis
Footballguy
This will be another overrated bust due to the FBG hype train. Nothing to see here folks, learn from mistakes of the past or you can choose to keep repeating them.
:rofl:
I don't think anyone's advocating taking the guy as a starter in a redraft, lol. Kind of hard to be a bust when you're drafting for a lottery ticket in the first place. I put his odds of success at the back end of round 1 (12 team dynasty) as good as any of the other players in that range.
EBF
Footballguy
Because he's better?
It's only one team, but the Cowboys also had Taylor ahead of Stacy on their leaked draft board. Taylor is given a 4th round grade whereas Stacy is unlisted.
Coeur de Lion
Footballguy
You should probably look at some actual historical success rate numbers as opposed to a few anecdotal examples if you really believe this.
I'll dig into this later when I have more time, but RBs with 200+ career carries and 1000+ career yards rushing, year drafted, round drafted (excluding UDFAs, who I still haven't added to this data set)
1st: 37
2nd: 18
3rd: 16
4th: 16
5th: 5
6th: 5
7th: 4
Code:
Player Year RndEdgerrin James 1999 1Ricky Williams1 1999 1Thomas Jones 2000 1Jamal Lewis 2000 1Shaun Alexander 2000 1Ron Dayne 2000 1Trung Canidate 2000 1LaDainian Tomli 2001 1Deuce McAlliste 2001 1Michael Bennett 2001 1T.J. Duckett 2002 1William Green 2002 1Willis McGahee 2003 1Larry Johnson 2003 1Steven Jackson 2004 1Kevin Jones 2004 1Cedric Benson 2005 1Ronnie Brown 2005 1Cadillac Willia 2005 1DeAngelo Willia 2006 1Joseph Addai 2006 1Reggie Bush 2006 1Laurence Marone 2006 1Adrian Peter(CHI)2007 1Marshawn Lynch 2007 1Chris Johnson 2008 1Rashard Mendenh 2008 1Jonathan Stewar 2008 1Darren McFadden 2008 1Felix Jones 2008 1Chris Wells 2009 1Knowshon Moreno 2009 1Donald Brown 2009 1Ryan Mathews 2010 1C.J. Spiller 2010 1Mark Ingram 2011 1Doug Martin 2012 1Kevin Faulk 1999 2Travis Henry 2001 2Anthony Thomas 2001 2LaMont Jordan 2001 2Clinton Portis 2002 2DeShaun Foster 2002 2Maurice Morris 2002 2Ladell Betts 2002 2Julius Jones 2004 2Tatum Bell 2004 2Maurice Jones-D 2006 2LenDale White 2006 2Brandon Jackson 2007 2Matt Forte 2008 2Ray Rice 2008 2LeSean McCoy 2009 2Toby Gerhart 2010 2Ben Tate 2010 2Amos Zereoue 1999 3Shawn Bryson 1999 3Reuben Droughns 2000 3Kevan Barlow 2001 3James Jackson 2001 3Travis Minor 2001 3Brian Westbrook 2002 3Chris Brown 2003 3Frank Gore 2005 3Jerious Norwood 2006 3Jamaal Charles 2008 3Kevin Smith 2008 3Steve Slaton 2008 3Shonn Greene 2009 3Stevan Ridley 2011 3DeMarco Murray 2011 3Olandis Gary 1999 4Rudi Johnson 2001 4Correll Buckhal 2001 4Najeh Davenport 2002 4Jonathan Wells 2002 4Domanick Willia 2003 4Lee Suggs 2003 4Onterrio Smith 2003 4Mewelde Moore 2004 4Marion Barber 2005 4Brandon Jacobs 2005 4Darren Sproles 2005 4Leon Washington 2006 4Michael Bush 2007 4Le'Ron McClain 2007 4Tashard Choice 2008 4Sammy Morris 2000 5Michael Turner 2004 5Jerome Harrison 2006 5Tim Hightower 2008 5Ryan Torain 2008 5Mike Anderson 2000 6Chester Taylor 2002 6Adrian Peterson 2002 6Bernard Scott 2009 6Alfred Morris 2012 6Derrick Ward 2004 7Ahmad Bradshaw 2007 7Jason Snelling 2007 7Justin Forsett 2008 7
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squistion
Footballguy
It does, but it doesn't always.
Yes, absolutely, from a statistical standpoint there is a direct correlation between the round a player is taken in and his subsequent NFL success.
However, if this was really the last word (as some here are contending) then I would imagine that the NFL would probably only hold a four round draft and/or would sign very few undrafted free agents - because what would be the point if (for all intents and purposes) these players had no chance of making it? Also, threads on this forum for players taken after a certain round or free agents wouldn't exist and rookie drafts would exactly match the round a player was taken in at each position. Needless to say, this would save everyone a lot of time in that all you have to look at would be the NFL draft.
ShaHBucks
Footballguy
I fully understand the stats. Anyone that ignores the stats is just trying to be cool. I'm saying draft position has more to do with opportunity than talent. There's a lot of petty politics that go on behind the scenes in sports. I know firsthand. NFL teams draft bust left and right, so you can't assume just because a player slips he sucks. I happen to think Stacy is in a situation where there is a void of his skill set on his team. It's not like Steven Jackson resigned or Bradshaw was brought in. I don't think he's a franchise changing player but he can succeed if he's giving the workload.
Coeur de Lion
Footballguy
Last word? Only thing to look at? No. Single most important data point prior to a guy actually setting foot on an NFL field? IMO absolutely.
Strongly disagreed. At the end of the first, you can take Robert Woods, Justin Hunter, Christine Michael, Zach Ertz, Gavin Escobar, Vance McDonald, or Aaron Dobson. All of those players were 2nd round picks in the NFL, which makes them much higher-percentage lottery tickets. You could take Kelce, Wheaton, or Allen, who were high 3rd round picks who armchair scouts loved in the pre-draft process. You could take Jordan Reed, who was taken in the 3rd round despite being positively woeful at blocking (so you can only imagine how good he must be at receiving to justify that grade), or Marcus Lattimore, who was taken in the 4th round despite having major injury red flags (so you can only imagine where he would have been drafted without that risk). You can take Knile Davis or Jonathan Franklin, who were drafted higher into appealing situations. You can take Denard Robinson, who was drafted higher despite undergoing a position change (so you can imagine what Jacksonville thought of his raw talent to take that risk). You can draft one of the four other RBs taken in the 4th round. You can take E.J. Manuel, who was a 1st round talent at QB, or Geno Smith, who was a high 2nd rounder beloved by draftniks. There are a lot of players you can take at the end of the first round, and while they're all lottery tickets, most of them have a higher max payout and better odds than Stacy.
I didn't hear any buzz for Stacy before the NFL draft, but suddenly he gets drafted in the 5th round and now he's the hottest rookie on the board? I don't understand it.
Sleeper 43
Footballguy
What about Alfred Morris, I'm sure he had greater red flags being a 6th round pick and NFL scouts just didn't think he was very good either? Seriously, RBs have a short shelf life and come in all shapes and sizes... one mans trash is another mans treasure, its not like the other positions.
Not dissimilar to the time value of money, an elite player that doesn't pay off for 3 years is worse than a back-end RB2 who pays off immediately. I discount future value by a factor as high as 50%. Who was more valuable in the 2010 rookie draft: Ryan Mathews or CJ Spiller? Obviously, in hindsight, over the long-term, you wish you had taken Spiller. But if Mathews led you to a 2011 championship, you were better off with him than Spiller's 2012+.
-IF- he pans out (this is a huge IF, so please don't think I'm saying he WILL pan out), I think Stacy will pan out faster than all of those other guys you mention, who will take 2+ years to see what they have. Stacy's not a superstar, so even IF he won the job outright this year, if St. Louis turns the corner to contention, he'd be an easy guy to replace by a higher-upside back in the future. He's not a long-term guy - he's a 'I am extremely weak at RB and need a potential Flex play for the next year-to-two' guy.
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Alfred Morris went to Florida Atlantic. Guys from small schools like that drop as it's a lot harder to evaluate them.
Stacy played in a major conference and has a huge sample of college games for NFL scouts to evaluate him, and they obviously weren't that impressed.
Sabertooth
Footballguy
Like who? In one of my drafts Stacy went before Justin Hunter, Keenan Allen, and Tyler Eifert. I give those players a significantly better shot at NFL success than Stacy. In my other draft he actually slid to the 26th spot which is about right, maybe a little low. He went after Christine Michael and Gillislee in that draft which is about where his value is (I'd have him between those two). No way should you be spending 1st round rookie picks on him. Maybe mid 2nd rounders if you have a need.
I absolutely agree that Hunter/Allen/Eifert have a better chance at NFL success. I disagree that they have a significantly better chance at providing substantial fantasy football value. I'm not saying Stacy's a shoo-in over those guys, but it's not an absurdity if he's taken over them.
I can respect that. I'm generally of the opinion that if your team is relying on a rookie draft pick to be productive, and we aren't talking about a top-3 draft pick, then you're probably screwed anyway. If your title hopes hinge on Stacy, then I'd say your title hopes are looking pretty thin.
squistion
Footballguy
Stacy did have his admirers before the draft. I wouldn't classify this as buzz, but for what it is worth, Bloom had him at #30 overall in his pre-draft top 100 - and while ranking him below Michael and Ellington, he had Stacy above LeVeon Bell at #36 and Monte Ball at # 40. Here was his pre-draft remarks:
http://subscribers.footballguys.com/2012/13bloom100_predraft.php
That's hardly buzz. 30th overall is where I'm saying he belongs right now- mid 3rd round. High third if you take out the IDPs.
squistion
Footballguy
ConnSKINS26
Footballguy
The NFL made me look like a dummy, but he was my #2 RB before the draft.
Keith Lewis
Footballguy
The hype on this guy is unreal. FBG bust special, although I believe this one is more hype from a handful of posters, this doesn't appear to be a staff favorite.
squistion
Footballguy
They currently have him at #14 overall. No, not a staff favorite, but in the ballpark to the ADP noted by the OP of a high/mid 2nd pick and two staffers (Wood and Haseley) do have him at #10, while Andrew Garda is slotting him at #12.
http://subscribers.footballguys.com/apps/viewrankings.php?viewpos=ov&type=rookie
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I remember reading that in another post. I am fully prepared to give you major props if this dude lights it up.
squistion
Footballguy
Cool.Sorry. Read, comprehend, post. I skipped steps 1 and 2 and went straight to 3.
I did the same thing in the FFA forum recently.
Biabreakable
Footballguy
So do you think that these players will have higher VBD seasons in the near future than Stacy?
I certainly like many of those TE prospects and I could see Ertz, Kelce and maybe Reed be able to score high enough that they might have a VBD advantage over Stacy. That would mean one of these guys has a Gonzalez like season/run/career fpr them to give that point advantage over Stacy who will likely be a lead RB doubling, perhaps tripling those players targets/touches. What is more is those TE tend to take some seasoning before they break out while Stacy could produce startable numbers right away. Your argument that a team should not be counting on Stacy as a rookie to be competitive is really missing the point. If a team is in that type of situation then you are correct they should be looking at the TE/WR because those are longer term prospects and their team is far away from competing this season. A team ready to compete on the other hand might not have an early pick and could likely use the depth at RB for injury options and trade bait even if they do not like Stacy, as he will likely get a quicker chance to shine than the players you seem to be advocating over him, while Stacy if even modestly successful as a rookie can likely be traded for many of the players you are listing who are less likely to show right out of the gates. Furthermore many of the players I like are not being drafted as high as the cluster of Hunter, Stacy, Woods at the turn. Kelce is a guy I would consider taking over Stacy based on talent but his ADP is lower so it isn't necessary to draft several of the players you listed at the 1st turn if you really want them. If you want Stacy or Hunter that is where you need to take them to be ahead of the next team who soon will if you do not.
Stacy might be a flash in the pan like Domanic Davis or other players who have good seasons but then fade as well. I think that ticket is better short term trade bait than the other options you listed. I am also not valuing 10 seasons of potential WR3-2 seasons over 1-2 RB2 seasons because I see that RB season being more likely to produce a significant VBD advantage in one season than the WR will in many seasons. I know you have said you value one high VBD season over many mediocre ones before, but in this example it does not seem to me that you do.
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