matttyl
Footballguy
The option year is only for first round draft picks. As a player, if you aren't drafted in the top 10 with those huge bonuses, you want to be drafted as the first pick in the 2nd round.
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Zeke planning a holdout (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter JamesonSkittles
- Start date
need2know
Footballguy
If I owned a team I would be about winning not the money. You want to make more money go invest in something else.
If you want to win you usually have to have happy players so pay them.
matttyl
Footballguy
I agree in theory - but that's what the Redskins did with Alex Smith and look at them today. It can go both ways. If the Cowboys sign him to a new 4 year deal with $12m a year and $20m guaranteed or something, but then he breaks down this year (or gets another suspension)....what then? You're out money, and wins.
need2know
Footballguy
Riddick02
Footballguy
He can't become an UFA till he's accrued 4 years since being drafted. Currently he only has 3. So if he held out past Aug. 6th, he would have to report next year before that date in order to accrue the necessary time for UFA. If he were to hold out past that date both years and still play the necessary 6 games, than the Cowboys could tender him as a RFA for the 2021.
IMO, it makes no sense for him to hold out past the Aug. 6th date this year since he will back himself into a corner next year. Even though the Franchise tag is going to be a real possibility in 2021, it is still better than the RFA tender amounts and having weakened negotiations with other teams because they knows the Cowboys can let them do all the work than just match it.
He'll report this year, and than can hold out into the season next year if necessary.
voiceofunreason
Footballguy
Non-story. Maybe he'll hold out next year but Jerry usually pays the people he wants to keep.matttyl said:
kittenmittens
Footballguy
Owww my back hurts?matttyl said:
matttyl
Footballguy
I mean not even lie about it. I'm perfectly healthy, I'm here reporting, but I will not play in a (full contact) game until my demands are met kinda thing.
kittenmittens
Footballguy
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kittenmittens
Footballguy
I'm not sure. I guess he could suit up and refuse to take the field. I'm guessing the team has recourse in that event tho.
matttyl
Footballguy
Yes, you do want to be drafted high in the first. I'm saying that if you aren't high in the fist - say you're a mid first instead, you might end up better off being the first pick in the second and not give the team the option of a 5th year. Ask Landon Collins. He was the first pick in the 2nd round of the 2015 draft - so the Giants had him for four years from 2015-2018, and he was paid $6.1m total for it. They couldn't do anything for the fifth year as he was an UFA. The Redskins just signed him as a free agent to the tune of $84m, with $31m of it guaranteed. A mid 1st round pick that same draft was Melvin Gordon - he doesn't seem happy with his deal. It's all about getting that 2nd deal, the big one. You want that to come as soon as possible.
Now you also need to be a good player. Three picks after Collins was TJ Yeldon - and he's earning less on his second deal than he is on his first.
Right if you’re a bust you would have rather had the extra 4 million or so from your first contract than the 1 earlier year of freedom to seek a second contract.
kittenmittens
Footballguy
Yes, I agree. I posted too hastily. Didn't read what you said carefully enough. My bad.
bicycle_seat_sniffer
Smells like chicken
matttyl
Footballguy
How many of the guys taken in the first round see themselves as busts? They want to bet on themselves.
matttyl
Footballguy
There comes a point where (depending on position) they may very much rather be in the second than near end of the first just due to that 5th year option. I bet Michael Thomas is damn happy he slid to the 2nd round - his huge payday is coming a year earlier and will easily offset any loss from the first few years of the deal. Keanu Neal even tore his ACL and would have been better dropping to the 2nd round as he'd be a free agent next year rather than playing on a one year "tag" of $6.4m, which would slot him as the the #16 safety in the league this year - and he's especially upset after seeing what Landon Collins just got. Depends on the player, and the position.
Kinda related - some players would rather be undrafted than taken in the 6th or 7th. They can then do where they want to.
You’re looking at it after the fact, after he’s already proven he’s a stud. Very doubtful he went into the draft hoping to be a second round pick rather than a mid first.
matttyl
Footballguy
Of course we're looking at it after the fact. Take Zeke for instance - if he didn't prove to be an NFL stud, he wouldn't be talking about a holdout. Of course he wasn't a mid first, he was a very early pick with much more guaranteed money. But none of the guys going into the draft see themselves as anything but studs.
BoltBacker
Footballguy
That was my thought as well, although I was thinking "nursing a hamstring injury". It's pretty tough to prove someone doesn't have a nagging hamstring injury. There isn't a ton of treatment other than rest. They can linger for not only weeks, but sometimes MONTHS at a time. If you have reported but you have a phantom hamstring injury I think your time still accrues. It may not be the best decision if he really wants to get paid AND stay in DAL because he runs the risk of alienating both the organization and fans. But I don't really think Zeke has always made decisions based on making the organization or the fans happy.
You said “as a player if you’re not drafted in the top 10 picks, you want to be the first pick of the second round.” That’s just not true unless you have the benefit of knowing you’re going to be successful and earn a lucrative second contract. Whether these guys all think they’re studs or not, lots of NFL players drafted in the first 2 rounds, particularly outside the top 10, bust. Providing a few examples of 2nd round picks who are studs and have gotten or will be paid a year earlier than first round picks doesn’t change the mindset of 4 years ago when those players were drafted.
The year Michael Thomas was drafted he got a 4 year 5 million dollar deal. The first pick of the second round got 4/6.6. Corey Coleman at number 15 overall got 4/11.6 (5th year option not excercised). I’m sure he thought he was going to be a stud too. But he wasn’t and if he got taken the first pick of the second round he’d have earned 5 million less in his career without a big second contract on the horizon. Without the benefit of hindsight it’d be foolish for any player to pass up 5 million extra on their first contract.
matttyl
Footballguy
Ok, was exaggerating a bit on the "top 10" part. Was just meaning that at a certain point, it's better for these guys to be early 2nd round picks rather than late 1st round picks because of being able to hit UFA a year earlier. Sure, I cherry picked some recent examples, and sure there were some busts along the way who were better off being drafted earlier.
STEADYMOBBIN 22
Footballguy
Only a loser scumbag pretends to get hurt. If he wants a contract he should stand firm but he shouldn't be a ##### about it.
I have been saying this is all BS from the start. Saying Zeke should absolutely get a new contract is absurd. He has been a stud and worthy of his first round selection and the nearly 25 million dollar fully guaranteed contract that came with it. He also has his own parking spot next to Roger Goodell's. He's missed 6 games and the cloud that followed the team that season. Did Jerry pay for those lawyers to fight that battle?
I don't believe he will hold out. I do believe he will get an extension. When that contract runs out he will either take a team friendly deal to stay or take his talents to the Raiders.
BoltBacker
Footballguy
Just to be clear, I'm not saying that's what he SHOULD do. I'm just saying that if a player wanted to accrue a season while still avoiding taking more physical abuse before he gets his contract extension.
I am glad Gurley got his money, but boy that was close. About 7 months after that extension how much of that contract do you think he could get? There are only about 3-4 RB's that I would give that type of money to and Zeke is one of them. I don't blame him for making decisions that he thinks best serve his future. Normally, I'm a "play out the contract you negotiated" type of guy. But that's the thing, if you are on your rookie deal you didn't REALLY negotiate the $ you are playing for. The people that signed the CBA did because now rookie contracts are more or less slotted. The only part that gets negotiated is how that money is structured and whether or not the team is on the hook at the end of it if things go sideways. Zeke has more or less had a contract assigned to him that he had very little part in negotiating. A RB's "prime" is so short they really get completely jobbed in the current CBA. By the time they are allowed to hit TRUE FA the team can look back and tell them, "Well, yeah you have played great for the past five years BUT now you have all this mileage and you probably only have a year or two before the decline starts.... blah, blah, blah" and the team has a whole new crop of young RB's out of college that will be slotted into unfair contracts as well that THEY can't really negotiate. The whole system is set up against RB's getting paid as the best part of their career is often in the first 5 years. A quality QB can start into(and sometimes past) his mid-30's. Guys like Peterson and Gore are maybe 1-100? Maybe 1-1000? More?
None of this is the Cowboys fault, BTW. I'm just saying that I can empathize with the situation that the true elite RB's are in. A guy like Barkley is being robbed of his true value for YEARS and who knows if he makes it 5 years without a major injury.
Twenty-Four Eighty-Four
Footballguy
https://www.rotoworld.com/football/nfl/player/2089/ezekiel-elliott
ProFootballTalk's Mike Florio reports Ezekiel Elliott is planning for a trip out of the country.
A lot could change in the next week, but it's beginning to sound as if Zeke will assuredly hold out into camp unless he receives a new deal. August 6 remains the looming date to monitor as Elliott would give up an accrued season toward free agency if he fails to report by that time, inching closer to becoming a restricted free agent rather than an unrestricted one on the open market following the 2020 season. The Cowboys open camp on July 27.
SOURCE: ProFootballTalk on Twitter
Jul 20, 2019, 5:22 PM ET
ProFootballTalk's Mike Florio reports Ezekiel Elliott is planning for a trip out of the country.
A lot could change in the next week, but it's beginning to sound as if Zeke will assuredly hold out into camp unless he receives a new deal. August 6 remains the looming date to monitor as Elliott would give up an accrued season toward free agency if he fails to report by that time, inching closer to becoming a restricted free agent rather than an unrestricted one on the open market following the 2020 season. The Cowboys open camp on July 27.
SOURCE: ProFootballTalk on Twitter
Jul 20, 2019, 5:22 PM ET
Hankmoody
Footballguy
Either way he may not need the accrued year since Dallas has already exercised the 5th option year so he won't be a Free Agent of any kind next year.
edit: well I looked closer at it and it's just clunkily written and almost certainly doesn't only apply to players with fewer than three accrued seasons but to all players. It's still moot since he's not gonna be a Free Agent next year.
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This isn't going to be a popular opinion...but as someone who has no dog in this fight, I'm gonna speak my mind.
I'm not a Cowboy fan or hater. I don't own Zeke in any keeper dynasty formats. What I'm about to say goes for ALL running backs.
Zeke is absolutely doing the right thing. The year accrued nonsense is meaningless if by the time you accrue all the necessary time to really be a "free" agent....teams now hold the argument over your head that you have too much mileage, are too close to vacating your "prime" and simply aren't a priority for a long term contract.
Zeke will NEVER have more value to the Cowboys than what he has right now. Without him, they're not making a run at anything. Without him, Prescott likely reverts back to struggling since his biggest virtues are prominent ONLY when his offensive system provides balance. Without Zeke, there is no balance. There is nothing even close to a replacement or viable alternative on the roster. They'd have to COMPLETELY re-work their offense and stray from the type of team they want to be, the type of team they are with Zeke.
Zeke would be a damn fool to play this year out. He should absolutely hold out and truth be told all running backs in similar situations should do the same. What's being done to these RB's as a result of the CBA basically is going to do nothing more than encourage future generations to play another position. Their lifespan is shorter that many other positions....as such this nonsense of 4-5 year contracts with "accruals" , "franchise tags", and whatever other devices GM's have in their toolbox needs to be COMPLETELY re-worked.
Don't perform, a team can cut you. Vastly outperform your garbage rookie deals that you're basically forced to take.....well you gotta wait and add all that mileage before you can even attempt to negotiate. Sorry, but it doesn't take a rocket scientist to figure out this entire process is the definition of A$$ backwards unfair logic.
Rant over. Just my 2 cents. Flame away.
I'm not a Cowboy fan or hater. I don't own Zeke in any keeper dynasty formats. What I'm about to say goes for ALL running backs.
Zeke is absolutely doing the right thing. The year accrued nonsense is meaningless if by the time you accrue all the necessary time to really be a "free" agent....teams now hold the argument over your head that you have too much mileage, are too close to vacating your "prime" and simply aren't a priority for a long term contract.
Zeke will NEVER have more value to the Cowboys than what he has right now. Without him, they're not making a run at anything. Without him, Prescott likely reverts back to struggling since his biggest virtues are prominent ONLY when his offensive system provides balance. Without Zeke, there is no balance. There is nothing even close to a replacement or viable alternative on the roster. They'd have to COMPLETELY re-work their offense and stray from the type of team they want to be, the type of team they are with Zeke.
Zeke would be a damn fool to play this year out. He should absolutely hold out and truth be told all running backs in similar situations should do the same. What's being done to these RB's as a result of the CBA basically is going to do nothing more than encourage future generations to play another position. Their lifespan is shorter that many other positions....as such this nonsense of 4-5 year contracts with "accruals" , "franchise tags", and whatever other devices GM's have in their toolbox needs to be COMPLETELY re-worked.
Don't perform, a team can cut you. Vastly outperform your garbage rookie deals that you're basically forced to take.....well you gotta wait and add all that mileage before you can even attempt to negotiate. Sorry, but it doesn't take a rocket scientist to figure out this entire process is the definition of A$$ backwards unfair logic.
Rant over. Just my 2 cents. Flame away.
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BoltBacker
Footballguy
bicycle_seat_sniffer
Smells like chicken
Something HAS to change or running backs are going to start routinely holding out after their ROOKIE years if they outperform their salary.
I don't think all problems get solved with the new CBA, but I think this is one that has a decent chance of seeing some reform.
Either way, I hope Zeke, Gordon and others hold old and force their respective teams hands.
The Zeke and Gordon situations are completely different if you ask me.
The Dallas offense revolves around Zeke. Without him, they are in trouble and everyone knows it.
The Charger offense runs through Rivers and, unlike Dallas, they have two RB's who have shown they can take the ball and help move the offense. I think Gordon will be forced to play it out or accept less than he expects.
I expect Jerry to make Zeke happy.
The Dallas offense revolves around Zeke. Without him, they are in trouble and everyone knows it.
The Charger offense runs through Rivers and, unlike Dallas, they have two RB's who have shown they can take the ball and help move the offense. I think Gordon will be forced to play it out or accept less than he expects.
I expect Jerry to make Zeke happy.
rockaction
Footballguy
MMQB had Albert Breer talking about the difference between Zeke and Gordon and what that meant. They came to essentially the same conclusion you did, and both had worked for teams that under no circumstances were to lock up a back at a hefty price.
ConnSKINS26
Footballguy
I don't know about the next CBA, but this is impossible (for any position) in the current CBA. A rookie contract can't be touched until after 3 years.
Thought this was an interesting article, a bit long but thought provoking at a minimum
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/ezekiel-elliott-is-not-worth-the-money-he-wants/
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/ezekiel-elliott-is-not-worth-the-money-he-wants/
matttyl
Footballguy
In year's past I've either made, or bumped a post I made a few years back about what non-QB player means the most to his team in terms of wins and losses. I think we can all agree that QBs generally mean the most to their team's success (Colts are a 9-11 win team with Luck, 3-4 without him...and so on), but after the QBs what specific player means to the most to their team's wins and losses? Zeke has to be very high on that list and means the difference in 2-4 games.
JamesonSkittles
Footballguy
Sleeprbot says Zeke is not on the plane as the Cowboys depart for camp.
That was interesting and I always found that Barkley wasn't on any of the short yardage/red zone lists interesting as well. The top 2 RBs in terms of yards.
If Zeke has a great year this season he will have a little more leverage but I don't see paying him now.
Defenze
Footballguy
TheWinz
Footballguy
And still no movement by Dallas to fill his shoes? They have squat as backups.Not gonna make it to training camp. Here we go.........
TwinTurbo
Footballguy
I agree with most of what you are saying. But to take the owner's side of it, the massive contracts for RBs don't make sense anymore either and the three teams with the highest paid RBs (Gurley, Bell, DJ) all have QBs on rookie deals. Prescott only has 1 year left on rookie deal and they have to extend him first, then figure out what numbers make sense for Zeke. And teams like the Rams still steamrolled the Cowboys in the playoffs and made it to the Superbowl with CJ F'n Anderson.
So I think Zeke should try for it, but I also think the Cowboys should not give in. He also got a $16.3M signing bonus, hardly a garbage deal. And he deserved it. But the players that don't end up deserving it, never give any of it back.
JamesonSkittles
Footballguy
per Sleepebot- "officially no Zeke Elliott"
not at camp.
not at camp.
ZWK
Footballguy
I don't like the way he deals with small sample sizes. If Crowell put up good efficiency numbers on 7 carries to close out games, that mostly tells us that 7 carries is a small sample size, not that you can rely on a cheap back like Crowell.
If you just multiply out the per play stats that he gives in each table by the number of plays, in 2018 Zeke ranked 9th in WPA added closing out games, 11th in EPA added in the red zone short yardage, and 2nd in EPA added on short yardage outside the red zone. Converting WPA and EPA into the same scale and adding all 3 numbers together, he ranked 3rd overall in total (behind Kamara and Gurley). Melvin Gordon ranked 4th.
Doesn't necessarily mean it's worth it to give a huge contract to a RB, but it does suggest that RB reputation lines up reasonably well with how much they help their team.
I hear you...but this is just a concept I see TOTALLY differently than what you are explaining here, and that same narrative the owners are feeding ESPN to use on their talk shows.
I would argue that, IF ANYTHING, Zeke is doing them a favor by making them pay for the BEST PRODUCTION YEARS OF HIS CAREER while he's still young. This isn't a 27 year old Leveon Bell with 100,000 miles on the tires. Yeah, he's holding out 2 years early but when you REALLY stop to think about it, given the limited window of production from that positions....it's the time where it makes even more sense.
I'll be honest, Saquan is doing himself a huge disservice by not holding out himself. I don't care if he has "4 years" left on his contract. He's REALLY young, REALLY good, and his team invested A HUGE amount of draft capital in him. He's an even bigger part of the NYG offense than Zeke is of the Cowboys (if that's even possible).
The owners are doing this to themselves. They think they can get cute by investing a first round pick in a RB and given the crappy CBA, they basically control an RB for all the best years of his career and throw him to the curb with a much tougher chance of getting that second contract due to the "position doesn't matter narrative".
Well if the position doesn't matter, stop drafting the elite ones in the first round. Until then, those elite first rounders should be holding out in their SECOND year, assuming they have a good rookie year like Barkley and Zeke did.
ConnSKINS26
Footballguy
It is not possible to renegotiate a rookie contract until after 3 years, what you suggest for Barkley here is impossible.
Didn't know that.
So I'll rephrase, those elite guys should be holding out the second the whistle blows on the last game of their 3rd season.
In every case like Zeke's, with no exceptions.
Both sides are right on this. The owners are correct that paying a 27/28 year old back who's been 5th year optioned, then franchised probably isn't a smart move. The running backs are correct in that they are severely underpaid during those first 5-6 years.
So as such there is no other avenue here, you hold out after the 3rd year and hold the team who drafted you highly hostage. It's one of the reasons Zeke is a lot more likely to get his contract than Gordan is. Age/mileage matters in their hopes of getting a second contract.
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TwinTurbo
Footballguy
Given the salary cap, I just think it makes more sense to draft elite RB's on rookie deals, then let another team pay for the massive second contract unless the numbers make sense.
Also Barkley was made the 4th highest paid RB in the league when he signed his deal before even playing a down. I'm not sure how much better he could have done at the time.
BobbyLayne
Footballguy
Doesn’t seem like much of a travel aficionado; Cabo is awful in the summer. But it’s a whole lotta closer to Oxnard than the south of France.
matuski
Footballguy
I think the convenience of it is the key.
Strategically out of the country and media, yet just a few hours away when the deal is done.
