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ZWK's 2017 Prospect Analysis (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter ZWK
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ZWK
Footballguy
Nope. Mike Williams's production continues to be middle of the pack, which is a dealbreaker for my formulas.
Yep. My point is that, if an unheralded RB or WR rated as well for their position as Baker Mayfield does for a QB, then I'd be excited about him at least as a sleeper prospect. With QBs like Mayfield, not so much.
ZWK
Footballguy
I went looking for a new source of yards per target data, since my old one hasn't updated in several weeks, and found that Bill Connelly is now sharing up-to-date target data throughout the season. Unfortunately, it's separated across a hundred different team pages. I took the time to look up some of the more relevant players (though I won't be repeating that every week); here they are:
YPT Player
15.20 Shelton Gibson
14.88 Dede Westbrook
13.47 Jalen Robinette
13.25 Jester Weah
12.85 Cedrick Wilson
11.69 Carlos Henderson
11.57 ArDarius Stewart
11.50 Taywan Taylor
11.49 Josh Reynolds
11.31 Amba Etta-Tawo
11.03 Corey Davis
10.69 Anthony Miller
10.44 James Washington
10.22 John Ross
10.04 Mike Williams
9.96 Evan Engram
9.80 Austin Carr
9.58 Courtland Sutton
9.56 Curtis Samuel
9.39 Amara Darboh
9.07 Travis Rudolph
8.50 Chad Hansen
8.49 JuJu Smith-Schuster
8.11 Malachi Dupre
7.90 Zay Jones
7.72 Isaiah Ford
6.85 Christian Kirk
6.80 Artavis Scott
Corey Davis, Amba Etta-Tawo, and Dede Westbrook look even better than I thought they did - Davis is now the clear top WR in my overall rankings, and Etta-Tawo and Westbrook have widened their lead for best production this year. Mike Williams has a solid 10.04 YPT which is better than I thought, though his overall numbers still aren't good enough for me to trust him at the top of the draft. JuJu Smith-Schuster is below 9.0 YPT which is pretty concerning, though my formulas still like him on the basis of last year's production plus his measurables. The guys below him in YPT don't have his spectacular 2015 to fall back on and are basically on my do-not-draft list.
YPT Player
15.20 Shelton Gibson
14.88 Dede Westbrook
13.47 Jalen Robinette
13.25 Jester Weah
12.85 Cedrick Wilson
11.69 Carlos Henderson
11.57 ArDarius Stewart
11.50 Taywan Taylor
11.49 Josh Reynolds
11.31 Amba Etta-Tawo
11.03 Corey Davis
10.69 Anthony Miller
10.44 James Washington
10.22 John Ross
10.04 Mike Williams
9.96 Evan Engram
9.80 Austin Carr
9.58 Courtland Sutton
9.56 Curtis Samuel
9.39 Amara Darboh
9.07 Travis Rudolph
8.50 Chad Hansen
8.49 JuJu Smith-Schuster
8.11 Malachi Dupre
7.90 Zay Jones
7.72 Isaiah Ford
6.85 Christian Kirk
6.80 Artavis Scott
Corey Davis, Amba Etta-Tawo, and Dede Westbrook look even better than I thought they did - Davis is now the clear top WR in my overall rankings, and Etta-Tawo and Westbrook have widened their lead for best production this year. Mike Williams has a solid 10.04 YPT which is better than I thought, though his overall numbers still aren't good enough for me to trust him at the top of the draft. JuJu Smith-Schuster is below 9.0 YPT which is pretty concerning, though my formulas still like him on the basis of last year's production plus his measurables. The guys below him in YPT don't have his spectacular 2015 to fall back on and are basically on my do-not-draft list.
BigTex
Don't mess with Texas
From the USC games I've watched this year the issue with JuJu Smith is he has the tendency to wait for the football to come to him. While players like Davis and Westbrook attack the ball and have that "it's mine" aggressive attitude when thrown the ball. That seems to be the difference in their YPT this year. Williams is in that same boat with JuJu but they both will go up and snatch it out of the air and Williams is probably the best at that.
I own both Mike and JuJu but I'd take Westbrook and Davis over them based off of this year's production and the games I've watched.
:twocents:
Tex
BigTex
Don't mess with Texas
I personally would change that to first four rounds. If the last few drafts are any indication I think with the amount of talent that has come and will be coming out we can extend that to one more round.
Tex
Dinsy Ejotuz
Footballguy
Do you see that for non-Power 5 BCS guys? Or just FBS and smaller players?
I did it differently than you describe, and haven't looked at it for several years now, but when I tried to adjust true small school guys the difference was something like .78 for both RBs and WRs. Turned out to be shockingly close. So interesting you came up with 1/4th.
ZWK
Footballguy
I used all FBS QBs.
My methodology for coming up with that 1/4 number: I went to CFBR and used the Play Index to get the statline for every game in 2015 by a player with at least 20 passing attempts. For each game, I calculated the QB's "adjusted ypa" stat which I've been using, which is [passing yards + 1.3 (rushing yards) + 2 (completions) + 15 (passing TDs) + 15 (rushing TDs) - 25 (interceptions)] / (pass att + rush att). For each game I looked up the opponent's SRS (using a lookup formula). Then I ran a regression predicting AYA based on the QB's name and the opponent's SRS. I compared the weight on SRS in that regression to the weight that I'd given to strength of schedule (which is average opponent SRS) in my QB formula. Assuming that the relation between SOS and the other passing efficiency stats that I use is the same as the relationship between SOS and AYA, I found that I should be giving SOS 1.5x as much weight as I had been.
Depends where they go. I sure hope Davis goes somewhere useful. A team like CAR or KC would really suck.
ZWK
Footballguy
There are some interesting names among the RBs who are getting things done in the passing game this year. Some RB receiving stats (rec/yd/td):
Player A: 39/377/1 with 9.0 YPT and 4 20+ yarders
Player B: 20/299/4 with 12.5 YPT and 6 20+ yarders
Player C: 23/347/3 with 10.6 YPT and 6 20+ yarders
Player D: 37/381/3 with 9.8 YPT and 5 20+ yarders
Player E: 38/317/3 with 6.5 YPT and 3 20+ yarders
Player F: 44/469/1 with 9.4 YPT and 3 20+ yarders
Player G: 33/346/4 with 8.2 YPT and 2 20+ yarders
1 of these guy is a well-known receiving back. 4 of the other 6 previously had a career high below 100 receiving yards in a season, and another below 200.
Answer key:
A is Kareem Hunt, B is James Conner, C is Saquon Barkley, D is James Butler, E is Christian McCaffrey, F is Kalen Ballage, and G is Alvin Kamara. Kamara had 291 recyds last year and Barkley had 161; the others had never reached triple digits (except McCaffrey).
In terms of overall rankings, I currently have Barkley in the top group of 8 RBs (at #4), and McCaffrey, Hunt, and Conner in the next bunch behind them (along with Curtis Samuel and Elijah Hood). Butler, Kamara, and Ballage are farther down the rankings.
Player A: 39/377/1 with 9.0 YPT and 4 20+ yarders
Player B: 20/299/4 with 12.5 YPT and 6 20+ yarders
Player C: 23/347/3 with 10.6 YPT and 6 20+ yarders
Player D: 37/381/3 with 9.8 YPT and 5 20+ yarders
Player E: 38/317/3 with 6.5 YPT and 3 20+ yarders
Player F: 44/469/1 with 9.4 YPT and 3 20+ yarders
Player G: 33/346/4 with 8.2 YPT and 2 20+ yarders
1 of these guy is a well-known receiving back. 4 of the other 6 previously had a career high below 100 receiving yards in a season, and another below 200.
Answer key:
A is Kareem Hunt, B is James Conner, C is Saquon Barkley, D is James Butler, E is Christian McCaffrey, F is Kalen Ballage, and G is Alvin Kamara. Kamara had 291 recyds last year and Barkley had 161; the others had never reached triple digits (except McCaffrey).
In terms of overall rankings, I currently have Barkley in the top group of 8 RBs (at #4), and McCaffrey, Hunt, and Conner in the next bunch behind them (along with Curtis Samuel and Elijah Hood). Butler, Kamara, and Ballage are farther down the rankings.
I'm in dyno as well. As much as talent wins out, it can't win out over suckage at QB. Ask any Hopkins owner. Ask any Watkins owner as well.
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ZWK
Footballguy
They both also have very good receiving stats this year (I have Mathers ranked as the 3rd most productive receiving RB this season, behind only Curtis Samuel & Joe Mixon). They didn't have good receiving totals in previous years, but I think that's mostly because of a lack of playing time. That is different from most of the guys who I listed as having surprising good receiving stats, who have been successful high-volume runners and this year added a large receiving role to their game. Hicks & Mathers are also farther down my overall RB rankings than most of the guys that I listed (though Hicks is close to Kamara & Ballage), because Hicks's rushing stats are pretty bad and Mathers is small and slow according to nfldraftscout's estimates.
My guess is that their most likely chance at NFL fantasy value is in something like a Theo Riddick role. My system isn't really designed to find those guys (largely because guys like that have generally been rare).
ZWK
Footballguy
Here are the 15 players who were drafted in the first 3 rounds from 2006-2016 who are most similar to Mike Williams in terms of height/weight/BMI/40 time (using nfldraftscout estimates for Williams, and for other players who don't have combine or pro day numbers):
Player Ht Wt BMI 40 time
Mike Williams 75.3 225 28.1 4.50
Josh Gordon 75.1 224 27.9 4.52
Demaryius Thomas 75.3 224 27.8 4.52
Jon Baldwin 76.4 228 27.5 4.49
Dez Bryant 74.0 225 28.9 4.52
Dwayne Bowe 74.0 221 28.4 4.51
Mike Evans 76.8 231 27.6 4.51
Brian Quick 75.5 220 27.1 4.50
Kenny Britt 74.9 218 27.3 4.49
Greg Little 74.5 231 29.3 4.51
Jaelen Strong 74.4 217 27.6 4.44
Alshon Jeffery 74.9 216 27.1 4.48
Jordy Nelson 74.6 217 27.4 4.51
Cody Latimer 74.5 215 27.2 4.44
Devin Thomas 74.0 215 27.6 4.41
Dorial Green-Beckham 77.1 237 28.0 4.49
That's a strong list with a lot of stars, though also a fair number of busts. But a random player from that list is a valuable prospect.
Here is how those players rank in terms of college production, from best to worst by my career production score (leaving out Brian Quick, who was non-FBS):
Demaryius Thomas
Dez Bryant
Mike Evans
Jordy Nelson
Alshon Jeffery
Kenny Britt
Dwayne Bowe
Devin Thomas
Cody Latimer
Jaelen Strong
Mike Williams
Jon Baldwin
Dorial Green-Beckham
Josh Gordon
Greg Little
That does not look so good for Williams. It's nearly all stars in the top half of the list and all busts in the bottom half (with the one big exception of Josh Gordon, who had to leave college early). Williams is squarely in the bottom half.
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BigTex
Don't mess with Texas
Hopkins played well last year with a horrible QB. I do agree that you need a decent QB to throw the ball but in Dyno things can change really fast. If a WR is drafted high but has a horrible QB I'm not going to pass on him. I'm drafting long term so in any given year what looks to be a horrible situation can change over night. I had Coleman ranked #1 last year and ended up getting him in a trade package. Cleveland is a horrible place (sorry Browns fans) but his situation can change. I love Coleman's talent don't care about the situation because in Dyno it can change quickly.
ETA: Watson can't stay healthy plus I've always thought he was overrated.
Tex
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ZWK
Footballguy
Some receiving stats leaderboards (limited to players who are in the top 100 in receiving yards), updating the midseason data which I posted here.
First, the 10.0 YPT club (data from here; I believe these are up-to-date; I am missing some players because I had to collect the data team by team):
15.10 Dede Westbrook Oklahoma
14.05 Shelton Gibson WVU
13.65 Jon'Vea Johnson Toledo
13.47 Jalen Robinette Air Force
13.25 Jester Weah Pittsburgh
13.15 Cody Thompson Toledo
12.85 Cedrick Wilson Boise St
12.53 Josh Malone Tennessee
12.20 Taywan Taylor Western Ky
12.20 Ahmmon Richards Miami (Fl)
12.06 Jonathan Giles Texas Tech
11.88 Dante Pettis Washington
11.87 Nicholas Norris Western Ky
11.82 Carlos Henderson La Tech
11.67 ArDarius Stewart Alabama
11.49 Josh Reynolds Texas A&M
11.31 Amba Etta-Tawo Syracuse
11.16 Nick Westbrook Indiana
11.15 Corey Davis W Mich
10.92 Equanimeous St. Brown Notre Dame
10.85 Thomas Sperbeck Boise St
10.85 Keke Coutee Texas Tech
10.69 Anthony Miller Memphis
10.68 Michael Gallup CSU
10.52 Bug Howard N Carolina
10.39 Gerald Everett South Ala
10.26 Tanner Gentry Wyoming
10.16 James Washington Okla St
Next, the receivers who score the most touchdowns - here is everyone with at least 0.9 rec TD/g, or 40% of their team's receiving TDs, or 20% of their team's offensive TDs:
TD/g %RecTD %OffTD Player Team
1.17 58% 35% Amba Etta-Tawo Syracuse
1.42 47% 31% Carlos Henderson La Tech
1.38 56% 25% Corey Davis W Mich
1.00 57% 29% Austin Carr N'western
1.33 39% 24% Dede Westbrook Oklahoma
1.31 37% 25% John Ross Washington
1.00 50% 24% Fred Ross Miss St
0.83 53% 26% Scott Miller BGSU
1.23 41% 21% Taywan Taylor Western Ky
0.83 40% 28% JoJo Natson, Jr. Akron
0.83 45% 25% Courtland Sutton SMU
1.10 36% 24% Chad Hansen California
0.83 40% 26% DeAngelo Yancey Purdue
0.92 46% 20% Michael Gallup CSU
1.00 40% 21% KD Cannon Baylor
1.00 43% 19% Keevan Lucas Tulsa
0.92 44% 19% Tanner Gentry Wyoming
0.83 45% 19% Josh Reynolds Texas A&M
0.75 41% 23% Christian Kirk Texas A&M
1.08 33% 20% Gabe Marks Wash St
0.50 46% 25% KeeSean Johnson Fresno St
0.92 31% 24% Richie James MTSU
1.08 30% 21% Dante Pettis Washington
0.58 44% 24% Steven Sims Jr. Kansas
0.92 37% 20% Anthony Miller Memphis
1.00 33% 19% Nicholas Norris Western Ky
1.08 28% 19% Jonathan Giles Texas Tech
0.75 39% 20% Corey Willis C Mich
0.80 42% 16% ArDarius Stewart Alabama
0.42 63% 12% Drew Wolitarsky Minnesota
0.69 43% 17% Shay Fields Colorado
0.67 40% 17% Kenny Golladay N Illinois
0.67 30% 22% Adam Breneman U Mass
0.67 31% 21% Jimmy Williams ECU
0.67 31% 21% Zay Jones ECU
0.58 27% 23% Curtis Samuel Ohio State
The top 25 in yards per team passing attempt:
5.96 Jalen Robinette Air Force
4.12 Dede Westbrook Oklahoma
4.08 Corey Davis W Mich
3.60 Taywan Taylor Western Ky
3.58 Michael Gallup CSU
3.51 Tanner Gentry Wyoming
3.36 Thomas Sperbeck Boise St
3.15 Zay Jones ECU
3.12 Trent Taylor La Tech
3.10 Noel Thomas, Jr. U Conn
3.04 Devonte Boyd UNLV
3.03 Carlos Henderson La Tech
3.03 John Ross Washington
3.00 Anthony Miller Memphis
2.99 ArDarius Stewart Alabama
2.95 Cody Thompson Toledo
2.93 Cedrick Wilson Boise St
2.90 Richie James MTSU
2.89 Kenny Golladay N Illinois
2.84 Amba Etta-Tawo Syracuse
2.84 Nicholas Norris Western Ky
2.80 James Washington Okla St
2.73 Courtland Sutton SMU
2.73 Ventell Bryant Temple
2.70 Keevan Lucas Tulsa
Finally, all the players who average at least 1.0 25+ yard receptions per game:
1.58 Dede Westbrook Oklahoma
1.54 Taywan Taylor Western Ky
1.50 Amba Etta-Tawo Syracuse
1.50 Richie James MTSU
1.50 Chad Hansen California
1.42 Cedrick Wilson Boise St
1.42 Thomas Sperbeck Boise St
1.33 Carlos Henderson La Tech
1.33 James Washington Okla St
1.25 Shelton Gibson WVU
1.25 Jalen Robinette Air Force
1.25 Cody Thompson Toledo
1.23 Nicholas Norris Western Ky
1.23 Tanner Gentry Wyoming
1.17 Jonathan Giles Texas Tech
1.17 Anthony Miller Memphis
1.17 Jimmy Williams ECU
1.15 Corey Davis W Mich
1.15 Marcus Kemp Hawai'i
1.10 ArDarius Stewart Alabama
1.08 Josh Malone Tennessee
1.08 Keke Coutee Texas Tech
1.08 Austin Carr N'western
1.08 Courtland Sutton SMU
1.08 Keevan Lucas Tulsa
1.08 Kenny Golladay N Illinois
1.08 Zay Jones ECU
1.00 Jester Weah Pittsburgh
1.00 Equanimeous St. Brown Notre Dame
1.00 Michael Gallup CSU
1.00 Evan Engram Miss
1.00 DeAngelo Yancey Purdue
There are 10 players who made all 4 of these lists: Dede Westbrook, Taywan Taylor, Carlos Henderson, Amba Etta-Tawo, Corey Davis, Tanner Gentry, Michael Gallup, Nicholas Norris, Anthony Miller, and ArDarius Stewart (ranked in order of where they tend to appear on the lists). And some notable names who didn't make any of these lists: Mike Williams, JuJu Smith-Schuster, Amara Darboh, Isaiah Ford, and Travis Rudolph.
First, the 10.0 YPT club (data from here; I believe these are up-to-date; I am missing some players because I had to collect the data team by team):
15.10 Dede Westbrook Oklahoma
14.05 Shelton Gibson WVU
13.65 Jon'Vea Johnson Toledo
13.47 Jalen Robinette Air Force
13.25 Jester Weah Pittsburgh
13.15 Cody Thompson Toledo
12.85 Cedrick Wilson Boise St
12.53 Josh Malone Tennessee
12.20 Taywan Taylor Western Ky
12.20 Ahmmon Richards Miami (Fl)
12.06 Jonathan Giles Texas Tech
11.88 Dante Pettis Washington
11.87 Nicholas Norris Western Ky
11.82 Carlos Henderson La Tech
11.67 ArDarius Stewart Alabama
11.49 Josh Reynolds Texas A&M
11.31 Amba Etta-Tawo Syracuse
11.16 Nick Westbrook Indiana
11.15 Corey Davis W Mich
10.92 Equanimeous St. Brown Notre Dame
10.85 Thomas Sperbeck Boise St
10.85 Keke Coutee Texas Tech
10.69 Anthony Miller Memphis
10.68 Michael Gallup CSU
10.52 Bug Howard N Carolina
10.39 Gerald Everett South Ala
10.26 Tanner Gentry Wyoming
10.16 James Washington Okla St
Next, the receivers who score the most touchdowns - here is everyone with at least 0.9 rec TD/g, or 40% of their team's receiving TDs, or 20% of their team's offensive TDs:
TD/g %RecTD %OffTD Player Team
1.17 58% 35% Amba Etta-Tawo Syracuse
1.42 47% 31% Carlos Henderson La Tech
1.38 56% 25% Corey Davis W Mich
1.00 57% 29% Austin Carr N'western
1.33 39% 24% Dede Westbrook Oklahoma
1.31 37% 25% John Ross Washington
1.00 50% 24% Fred Ross Miss St
0.83 53% 26% Scott Miller BGSU
1.23 41% 21% Taywan Taylor Western Ky
0.83 40% 28% JoJo Natson, Jr. Akron
0.83 45% 25% Courtland Sutton SMU
1.10 36% 24% Chad Hansen California
0.83 40% 26% DeAngelo Yancey Purdue
0.92 46% 20% Michael Gallup CSU
1.00 40% 21% KD Cannon Baylor
1.00 43% 19% Keevan Lucas Tulsa
0.92 44% 19% Tanner Gentry Wyoming
0.83 45% 19% Josh Reynolds Texas A&M
0.75 41% 23% Christian Kirk Texas A&M
1.08 33% 20% Gabe Marks Wash St
0.50 46% 25% KeeSean Johnson Fresno St
0.92 31% 24% Richie James MTSU
1.08 30% 21% Dante Pettis Washington
0.58 44% 24% Steven Sims Jr. Kansas
0.92 37% 20% Anthony Miller Memphis
1.00 33% 19% Nicholas Norris Western Ky
1.08 28% 19% Jonathan Giles Texas Tech
0.75 39% 20% Corey Willis C Mich
0.80 42% 16% ArDarius Stewart Alabama
0.42 63% 12% Drew Wolitarsky Minnesota
0.69 43% 17% Shay Fields Colorado
0.67 40% 17% Kenny Golladay N Illinois
0.67 30% 22% Adam Breneman U Mass
0.67 31% 21% Jimmy Williams ECU
0.67 31% 21% Zay Jones ECU
0.58 27% 23% Curtis Samuel Ohio State
The top 25 in yards per team passing attempt:
5.96 Jalen Robinette Air Force
4.12 Dede Westbrook Oklahoma
4.08 Corey Davis W Mich
3.60 Taywan Taylor Western Ky
3.58 Michael Gallup CSU
3.51 Tanner Gentry Wyoming
3.36 Thomas Sperbeck Boise St
3.15 Zay Jones ECU
3.12 Trent Taylor La Tech
3.10 Noel Thomas, Jr. U Conn
3.04 Devonte Boyd UNLV
3.03 Carlos Henderson La Tech
3.03 John Ross Washington
3.00 Anthony Miller Memphis
2.99 ArDarius Stewart Alabama
2.95 Cody Thompson Toledo
2.93 Cedrick Wilson Boise St
2.90 Richie James MTSU
2.89 Kenny Golladay N Illinois
2.84 Amba Etta-Tawo Syracuse
2.84 Nicholas Norris Western Ky
2.80 James Washington Okla St
2.73 Courtland Sutton SMU
2.73 Ventell Bryant Temple
2.70 Keevan Lucas Tulsa
Finally, all the players who average at least 1.0 25+ yard receptions per game:
1.58 Dede Westbrook Oklahoma
1.54 Taywan Taylor Western Ky
1.50 Amba Etta-Tawo Syracuse
1.50 Richie James MTSU
1.50 Chad Hansen California
1.42 Cedrick Wilson Boise St
1.42 Thomas Sperbeck Boise St
1.33 Carlos Henderson La Tech
1.33 James Washington Okla St
1.25 Shelton Gibson WVU
1.25 Jalen Robinette Air Force
1.25 Cody Thompson Toledo
1.23 Nicholas Norris Western Ky
1.23 Tanner Gentry Wyoming
1.17 Jonathan Giles Texas Tech
1.17 Anthony Miller Memphis
1.17 Jimmy Williams ECU
1.15 Corey Davis W Mich
1.15 Marcus Kemp Hawai'i
1.10 ArDarius Stewart Alabama
1.08 Josh Malone Tennessee
1.08 Keke Coutee Texas Tech
1.08 Austin Carr N'western
1.08 Courtland Sutton SMU
1.08 Keevan Lucas Tulsa
1.08 Kenny Golladay N Illinois
1.08 Zay Jones ECU
1.00 Jester Weah Pittsburgh
1.00 Equanimeous St. Brown Notre Dame
1.00 Michael Gallup CSU
1.00 Evan Engram Miss
1.00 DeAngelo Yancey Purdue
There are 10 players who made all 4 of these lists: Dede Westbrook, Taywan Taylor, Carlos Henderson, Amba Etta-Tawo, Corey Davis, Tanner Gentry, Michael Gallup, Nicholas Norris, Anthony Miller, and ArDarius Stewart (ranked in order of where they tend to appear on the lists). And some notable names who didn't make any of these lists: Mike Williams, JuJu Smith-Schuster, Amara Darboh, Isaiah Ford, and Travis Rudolph.
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Rodeojones
Footballguy
For reference sake on OBJ's value prior to his rookie season. I drafted OBJ as a developmental college player and had him rostered at the beginning of the season (dynasty league). If my memory serves me correct, OBJ was injured during pre-season and missed a couple of regular season games. Travis Kelce was in his second season (I recall) and beginning of the season was looking really good and the name "Baby Gronk" began to circulate. It was around week 3 or so and OBJ had yet to step on the field in the regular season and I traded straight up....OBJ for Travis Kelce in a PPR league and I thought I was stealing Kelce.
I bring this up to put a little perspective on OBJ's value as a rookie prior to going bonkers and me hating myself everytime I hear his name.
ZWK
Footballguy
Nope.
There are two approaches to evaluating prospects. The first is to try to form your own independent impression of players, while completely ignoring what everyone else thinks about the prospect. Some people do this by watching tape to see things for themselves, I do it mostly by looking at players' stats and plugging them into formulas. (Formulas are very good at ignoring other sources of information besides that data that you put into them).
The second approach is to try to take all relevant information into account to reach an all-things-considered conclusion. Experts who are projecting Williams as a first rounder know things, Matt Waldman's system for watching tape seems well-designed, PFF grades do a good job of taking every play into account, etc. I don't think that my system is so amazing that it completely overwhelms everything else, so when I draft I try to make rankings that take all of these into account (typically with the most weight going on draft position, which is why I make generic rookie rankings as a starting point).
My posts here are mostly about my stats-based approach (trying to ignore what everyone else thinks), because that is the new information that I'm bringing to the table, and it would be pretty boring to make posts saying "experts are saying that Mike Williams should be a first round pick, so he's probably a pretty good prospect." I think that people tend to learn more from discussions if each person is trying to share their independent impression and the reasons for it, rather than jumping ahead to talk about their all-things-considered conclusion.
ZWK
Footballguy
petekrum said:
If I had a dynasty draft today, I think my top 3 would be Dalvin Cook, Leonard Fournette, and Corey Davis. Not sure who I'd take at #4 if my leaguemates somehow ended up with the same top 3 - I guess Mike Williams is the most likely option there given that there seems to be a pretty strong consensus about him as a first rounder among draft experts (moreso than for any of the other remaining players). But I haven't actually done my draft prep yet; after I've spent some more time reading up on players while trying to form all-things-considered conclusions it's possible that I'll want to take JuJu Smith-Schuster, Dede Westbrook, Courtland Sutton, Joe Mixon, Royce Freeman, Christian McCaffrey, or someone else ahead of Williams.
ZWK
Footballguy
Corey Davis has prototypical size, 3 straight years of great raw receiving stats, and great efficiency stats in 2 of those 3 years. He made all 4 of my receiving leaderboards here, but his 2014 numbers were even better. By production, I have him as the #3 WR behind Dede Westbrook and Amba Etta-Tawo. Westbrook & Etta-Tawo are both smaller and over a year older, so my overall WR prospect formula puts Davis on top.
Besides that, other experts like him and the guys at PFF (who watch every play of every game) love him, putting him as the #5 overall prospect on their recent big board and praising his route-running and ball skills. A quote from PFF: "He is the rare complete package at the position, as his size, route-running ability and competitiveness with the ball in the air makes him a dangerous target to all parts of the field, and his blocking ability far exceeds that of most of his power five conference counterparts."
Besides that, other experts like him and the guys at PFF (who watch every play of every game) love him, putting him as the #5 overall prospect on their recent big board and praising his route-running and ball skills. A quote from PFF: "He is the rare complete package at the position, as his size, route-running ability and competitiveness with the ball in the air makes him a dangerous target to all parts of the field, and his blocking ability far exceeds that of most of his power five conference counterparts."
ZWK
Footballguy
At TE, my formulas are relatively high on Evan Engram, Jordan Leggett, O.J. Howard, David Njoku, Darrell Daniels, and Gerald Everett (in that order). Howard & Daniels mostly make the list for their athleticism (as projected by nfldraftscout), the others for their production.
Not as high on Cole Hikutini, Bucky Hodges, Jeremy Sprinkle, or Jake Butt. For Hikutini and (to a lesser extent) Hodges that's mainly due to a lack of athleticism, for Sprinkle & Butt because of both middle-of-the-road production and mediocre athleticism. But all 4 of them are still in the range where I might have some interest in them, depending on their draft position (Hunter Henry & Zach Ertz had similarly middling numbers).
Leggett, Daniels, and Everett are all above 10.0 YPT this year (although for Daniels that's on only 28 targets). Engram, Howard, Hikutini, and Njoku are all close behind in the 9.7+ YPT club, and Howard is over 10.0 YPT for his college career.
I haven't looked at any other TEs yet besides these 10; open to suggestions.
Not as high on Cole Hikutini, Bucky Hodges, Jeremy Sprinkle, or Jake Butt. For Hikutini and (to a lesser extent) Hodges that's mainly due to a lack of athleticism, for Sprinkle & Butt because of both middle-of-the-road production and mediocre athleticism. But all 4 of them are still in the range where I might have some interest in them, depending on their draft position (Hunter Henry & Zach Ertz had similarly middling numbers).
Leggett, Daniels, and Everett are all above 10.0 YPT this year (although for Daniels that's on only 28 targets). Engram, Howard, Hikutini, and Njoku are all close behind in the 9.7+ YPT club, and Howard is over 10.0 YPT for his college career.
I haven't looked at any other TEs yet besides these 10; open to suggestions.
Xue
Footballguy
Hodges tested with a 38.5" Vertical and 4.46 40 (probably a 4.56-4.60 "official") in 2014.
http://www.roanoke.com/sports/columns_and_blogs/blogs/andy_bitter_virginia_tech_football/some-thoughts-on-the-hokies-winter-max-testing-numbers/article_42f6e064-aba0-11e3-bc5a-0017a43b2370.html
Mike Gesicki is another TE that has tested well.
36.5" Vertical
10-10 Broad Jump
4.55 40
http://www.pennlive.com/pennstatefootball/index.ssf/2016/03/more_than_saquon_barkley_penn.html
http://www.scout.com/college/penn-state/story/1676931-for-these-three-lions-it-s-now-or-never
Just Win Baby
Footballguy
Hodges was one of the top dual threat QBs in the nation coming out of high school. I would expect him to be in the top tier of NFL TEs in terms of athleticism and speed, and he also has good size. So I think your comment that your formula isn't high on him due to lack of athleticism is definitely off (understand that may be due to inaccurate data).ZWK said:
BigTex
Don't mess with Texas
That's interesting because the main reason why I'm so high on Hikutini is because of his athleticism. His numbers don't reflect how good he really is but after watching several games this year I'm rather high on him but ZWK's formula is not. I find it interesting that both of these players are down for that very reason.
Tex
ZWK
Footballguy
Here are the top 30 RB prospects by my formula, with tier breaks:
Dalvin Cook FSU
Derrius Guice LSU *
Samaje Perine Oklahoma
Royce Freeman Oregon x
Joe Mixon Oklahoma
Saquon Barkley Penn State *
Leonard Fournette LSU
Nick Chubb Georgia x
Christian McCaffrey Stanford
Curtis Samuel Ohio St
Kareem Hunt Toledo
James Conner Pittsburgh
Elijah Hood N Carolina x
Jeremy McNichols Boise St
Wayne Gallman Clemson
James Butler Nevada
D’Onta Foreman Texas
Aaron Jones UTEP
Elijah McGuire La-Lafytte
Mike Weber Ohio St *
Jamaal Williams BYU
Rawleigh Williams III Arkansas *
Alvin Kamara Tennessee
Ray Lawry ODU
Corey Clement Wisconsin
Anthony Wales Western Ky
Lavon Coleman Washington
Kalen Ballage Ariz St
Damien Harris Alabama *
* not draft eligible
x chosen to return to school
The guys in the last tier aren't of much interest unless something changes (like a great combine).
Focusing on the top 9:
4 RBs on my top tier are returning to school - Guice & Barkley aren't draft eligible, Freeman & Chubb have said they aren't entering the draft. Freeman & Chubb are both coming off of down years and might help their draft position, but given how NFL contracts work they are still probably hurting themselves financially. With Chubb the big question is if he'll ever return to form after his injury, with Freeman it's whether he just looked good because of the Oregon offense.
Cook and Fournette are the obvious top 2. Both are generally seen as first rounders and make my top tier (though that's at #1 and #7). Cook has a lot of big plays and has been huge in the receiving game this year, but there are questions about him as a between the tackles runner (he is undersized, hasn't done well in short yardage situations, and has a low yards after contact in traffic). Fournette has size and athleticism, and had a huge 2015 with lots of yards after contact, but he hasn't done much as a receiver and his numbers were down this year. I'm not sure how I'd rank them; currently leaning towards Cook.
Oklahoma RBs Samaje Perine and Joe Mixon are the other two guys in my top tier. It's possible that their numbers were inflated by Oklahoma's offense; it's somewhat concerning that both of them made the top tier and Oklahoma QB Baker Mayfield and WR Dede Westbrook also led their positions by my 2016 production metrics. Perine is a big back who has broken a lot of big runs in addition to grinding out first downs, but he hasn't done much as a receiver. Mixon has emerged this year as a big play back who has put up big numbers as both a runner and a receiver; if he also puts up big numbers at the combine then I'll be tempted to make David Johnson comparisons. Mixon also has serious off-the-field issues (which you can discuss in detail in the dedicated thread); my guess is that they don't have a huge effect on his fantasy value (as a rough estimate, they reduce his expected future VBD by 20%) but they might lead him to spend another year in school.
Christian McCaffrey is typically rated as the #3 RB, but I have him down a tier at #9 (5th among players who are likely to be entering the draft). His biggest negative is his lack of size - 202 lbs. at 5'11.6" according to nfldraftscout. The RBs who are that thin rarely succeed in the NFL unless they have sub-4.40 speed. He also hasn't had great rushing efficiency numbers, though on the plus side in 2016 Stanford finally started giving him the ball in short yardage situations and he did well with it. He also has had great receiving numbers, especially in 2015.
Dalvin Cook FSU
Derrius Guice LSU *
Samaje Perine Oklahoma
Royce Freeman Oregon x
Joe Mixon Oklahoma
Saquon Barkley Penn State *
Leonard Fournette LSU
Nick Chubb Georgia x
Christian McCaffrey Stanford
Curtis Samuel Ohio St
Kareem Hunt Toledo
James Conner Pittsburgh
Elijah Hood N Carolina x
Jeremy McNichols Boise St
Wayne Gallman Clemson
James Butler Nevada
D’Onta Foreman Texas
Aaron Jones UTEP
Elijah McGuire La-Lafytte
Mike Weber Ohio St *
Jamaal Williams BYU
Rawleigh Williams III Arkansas *
Alvin Kamara Tennessee
Ray Lawry ODU
Corey Clement Wisconsin
Anthony Wales Western Ky
Lavon Coleman Washington
Kalen Ballage Ariz St
Damien Harris Alabama *
* not draft eligible
x chosen to return to school
The guys in the last tier aren't of much interest unless something changes (like a great combine).
Focusing on the top 9:
4 RBs on my top tier are returning to school - Guice & Barkley aren't draft eligible, Freeman & Chubb have said they aren't entering the draft. Freeman & Chubb are both coming off of down years and might help their draft position, but given how NFL contracts work they are still probably hurting themselves financially. With Chubb the big question is if he'll ever return to form after his injury, with Freeman it's whether he just looked good because of the Oregon offense.
Cook and Fournette are the obvious top 2. Both are generally seen as first rounders and make my top tier (though that's at #1 and #7). Cook has a lot of big plays and has been huge in the receiving game this year, but there are questions about him as a between the tackles runner (he is undersized, hasn't done well in short yardage situations, and has a low yards after contact in traffic). Fournette has size and athleticism, and had a huge 2015 with lots of yards after contact, but he hasn't done much as a receiver and his numbers were down this year. I'm not sure how I'd rank them; currently leaning towards Cook.
Oklahoma RBs Samaje Perine and Joe Mixon are the other two guys in my top tier. It's possible that their numbers were inflated by Oklahoma's offense; it's somewhat concerning that both of them made the top tier and Oklahoma QB Baker Mayfield and WR Dede Westbrook also led their positions by my 2016 production metrics. Perine is a big back who has broken a lot of big runs in addition to grinding out first downs, but he hasn't done much as a receiver. Mixon has emerged this year as a big play back who has put up big numbers as both a runner and a receiver; if he also puts up big numbers at the combine then I'll be tempted to make David Johnson comparisons. Mixon also has serious off-the-field issues (which you can discuss in detail in the dedicated thread); my guess is that they don't have a huge effect on his fantasy value (as a rough estimate, they reduce his expected future VBD by 20%) but they might lead him to spend another year in school.
Christian McCaffrey is typically rated as the #3 RB, but I have him down a tier at #9 (5th among players who are likely to be entering the draft). His biggest negative is his lack of size - 202 lbs. at 5'11.6" according to nfldraftscout. The RBs who are that thin rarely succeed in the NFL unless they have sub-4.40 speed. He also hasn't had great rushing efficiency numbers, though on the plus side in 2016 Stanford finally started giving him the ball in short yardage situations and he did well with it. He also has had great receiving numbers, especially in 2015.
ZWK
Footballguy
After filling in some missing data and adding some elusiveness stats from PFF, 5 more RBs belong on that list of top RB prospects: Ty Johnson (Maryland), Rashaad Penny (SDSU), Benjamin Snell Jr. (Kentucky), Kerryon Johnson (Auburn), and Damarea Crockett (Missouri). They're all near the bottom of tier 3 or the top of tier 4, near D'Onta Foreman and Aaron Jones. Rashaad Penny is the only one of the 5 who is draft eligible, so this doesn't change much for this draft class.
Zyphros
Footballguy
So the reasoning behind McCaffrey in tier #2 is undersized according to your data? Seems like a big drop off between him and Cook then when they have relatively similar numbers. Less games for McCaffrey, more yards a game, and per attempt. I thought your formula was heavily influenced by college production, in which case how isn't McCaffrey in the 1st tier? According to your numbers Cook seems to be the better receiver so maybe that has something to do with it?
voiceofunreason
Footballguy
Never saw any football film of Mixon until today, guy is a beast. Reminds me a bit of Deuce McAllister. Similar build and can do everything.
ZWK
Footballguy
Cook is better than McCaffrey on pretty much every component of my formula. Bigger, faster, more elusive, more productive (both this season and for his 2014-16 totals). McCaffrey has the edge of being a year younger, and he does have better stats on some components of the overall production metric. Most of these gaps you can see in the spreadsheet; the one that you can't is elusiveness where I'm also incorporating Pro Football Focus stats, and they have Cook with a significant higher yards after contact per attempt (4.05 & 4.0 for Cook these past 2 seasons, vs. 2.50 for McCaffrey in 2015) and missed tackle rate on runs (29.9% for Cook this year vs. 17.4% & 21.1% for McCaffrey these past 2 seasons).
I focused on the size difference because that's the one place where McCaffrey is actively bad, rather than merely not as good as Cook. But a more thorough explanation would be that McCaffrey is undersized, not superfast (which successful undersized backs tend to be), and his other numbers are good but not as spectacular as Cook's.
Zyphros
Footballguy
See now I'm confused because Cook isn't all that great in yards after contact between the tackles but he is according to PFF in their measurements of it? I realize you don't work for PFF but those numbers might be skewed that way as to why he is "better" than McCaffrey. I'm just trying to figure out why when I watch him, he doesn't seem to break a lot of tackles, and I hear other people saying that same thing, yet he gets a "positive attribute" of yards after contact. I don't see it.ZWK said:
Devils advocate but if McCaffrey measures 6'0" 210 minimum and has a great 3 cone and 40, how high would he move up? I can imagine that would be a huge bump to him in your formula.
ZWK
Footballguy
PFF summarizes Cook's elusiveness numbers here. From what I've seen, most of Cook's elusiveness happens in space, where he makes guys miss and then gets big runs. An 80-yard TD where you make the safety miss 10 yards downfield counts as 70 yards after contact and 1 missed tackle. I think that's a problem with using straight yards after contact (which is why I use capped yards after contact), but Cook also does very well in my elusiveness metrics thanks to his abilities in space.
McCaffrey at 210 lbs. would move up into the first tier. He'd be basically tied with Perine, Freeman, Chubb, Fournette, and Barkley as part of a very tight pack behind Cook, Mixon, and Guice. That is without doing anything with his 40 or other workout numbers.
ZWK
Footballguy
Here is the WR leaderboard, ranked along with last year's draft class as my formulas rated them at this time last year.
This year's class is stronger at the top, and much deeper. That means that I'd expect to see more WRs taken in rds 3-5, and more WRs who rise into early round consideration with a strong offseason.
The ratings for last year's class are from 1/14/16 (and are different from my final predraft ratings; in most cases the final rating was higher). For last year I have only included the WRs who entered the 2016 draft, but for this year I included everyone, even non-draft-eligible players. I haven't started keeping track of which draft-eligible players have declared.
Rtg Name School Draft Class (Notes)
8.22 Leonte Carroo Rutgers 2016 (ended up with a 9.29 rtg)
7.71 Corey Davis W Mich 2017?
7.22 JuJu Smith-Schuster USC 2017?
6.91 Taywan Taylor Western Ky 2017?
6.39 Corey Coleman Baylor 2016 (ended up with a 8.65 rtg)
6.24 Amba Etta-Tawo Syracuse 2017?
5.48 Jalen Robinette Air Force 2017?
5.05 Courtland Sutton SMU 2017?
4.93 Dede Westbrook Oklahoma 2017?
4.90 Josh Malone Tennessee 2017?
4.73 Tyler Boyd Pittsburgh 2016 (ended up with a 1.85 rtg)
4.68 Pharoh Cooper S Carolina 2016 (ended up with a 1.79 rtg)
4.55 Equanimeous St. Brown Notre Dame 2018+
4.50 Will Fuller Notre Dame 2016 (ended up with a 6.50 rtg)
4.44 Nick Westbrook Indiana 2018+
4.09 Rashard Higgins CSU 2016 (ended up with a 5.13 rtg)
3.87 Cody Thompson Toledo 2018+
3.80 Shelton Gibson WVU 2017?
3.76 Josh Doctson TCU 2016 (ended up with a 7.73 rtg)
3.64 James Washington Okla St 2017?
3.60 Sterling Shepard Oklahoma 2016 (ended up with a 6.88 rtg)
3.42 Roger Lewis BGSU 2016 (ended up with a 4.68 rtg)
3.40 ArDarius Stewart Alabama 2017?
3.39 Jester Weah Pittsburgh 2017?
3.27 Michael Gallup CSU 2017?
3.26 Curtis Samuel Ohio State 2017?
3.01 Carlos Henderson La Tech 2017?
3.00 Keevan Lucas Tulsa 2017?
2.89 John Ross Washington 2017?
2.86 Jonathan Giles Texas Tech 2018+
2.77 Chad Hansen California 2017?
2.76 Anthony Miller Memphis 2017?
2.76 Josh Reynolds Texas A&M 2017?
2.73 Tanner Gentry Wyoming 2017?
2.15 Richie James MTSU 2017?
1.85 KD Cannon Baylor 2017?
1.14 Kenny Golladay N Illinois 2017?
0.81 Cedrick Wilson Boise St 2017?
0.20 Austin Carr N'western 2017?
-0.06 Mike Thomas USM 2016 (ended up with a 3.78 rtg)
-0.77 Bryce Treggs California 2016 (ended up with a 0.40 rtg)
-1.25 DeAngelo Yancey Purdue 2017?
-1.40 Jakeem Grant Texas Tech 2016 (ended up with a -0.39 rtg)
-1.62 Nicholas Norris Western Ky 2017?
-1.68 Mike Williams Clemson 2017?
-2.62 Evan Engram Miss 2017?
-2.81 Chris Godwin Penn State 2017?
You can see the breakdowns behind these numbers in my WR spreadsheet. These numbers are up-to-date, except that yards per target does not include bowl games. Also, Mike Williams & ArDarius Stewart still have 1 game to go, and I'm also missing some players' birthdates (so I am using estimated ages based on high school graduation year).
This year's class is stronger at the top, and much deeper. That means that I'd expect to see more WRs taken in rds 3-5, and more WRs who rise into early round consideration with a strong offseason.
The ratings for last year's class are from 1/14/16 (and are different from my final predraft ratings; in most cases the final rating was higher). For last year I have only included the WRs who entered the 2016 draft, but for this year I included everyone, even non-draft-eligible players. I haven't started keeping track of which draft-eligible players have declared.
Rtg Name School Draft Class (Notes)
8.22 Leonte Carroo Rutgers 2016 (ended up with a 9.29 rtg)
7.71 Corey Davis W Mich 2017?
7.22 JuJu Smith-Schuster USC 2017?
6.91 Taywan Taylor Western Ky 2017?
6.39 Corey Coleman Baylor 2016 (ended up with a 8.65 rtg)
6.24 Amba Etta-Tawo Syracuse 2017?
5.48 Jalen Robinette Air Force 2017?
5.05 Courtland Sutton SMU 2017?
4.93 Dede Westbrook Oklahoma 2017?
4.90 Josh Malone Tennessee 2017?
4.73 Tyler Boyd Pittsburgh 2016 (ended up with a 1.85 rtg)
4.68 Pharoh Cooper S Carolina 2016 (ended up with a 1.79 rtg)
4.55 Equanimeous St. Brown Notre Dame 2018+
4.50 Will Fuller Notre Dame 2016 (ended up with a 6.50 rtg)
4.44 Nick Westbrook Indiana 2018+
4.09 Rashard Higgins CSU 2016 (ended up with a 5.13 rtg)
3.87 Cody Thompson Toledo 2018+
3.80 Shelton Gibson WVU 2017?
3.76 Josh Doctson TCU 2016 (ended up with a 7.73 rtg)
3.64 James Washington Okla St 2017?
3.60 Sterling Shepard Oklahoma 2016 (ended up with a 6.88 rtg)
3.42 Roger Lewis BGSU 2016 (ended up with a 4.68 rtg)
3.40 ArDarius Stewart Alabama 2017?
3.39 Jester Weah Pittsburgh 2017?
3.27 Michael Gallup CSU 2017?
3.26 Curtis Samuel Ohio State 2017?
3.01 Carlos Henderson La Tech 2017?
3.00 Keevan Lucas Tulsa 2017?
2.89 John Ross Washington 2017?
2.86 Jonathan Giles Texas Tech 2018+
2.77 Chad Hansen California 2017?
2.76 Anthony Miller Memphis 2017?
2.76 Josh Reynolds Texas A&M 2017?
2.73 Tanner Gentry Wyoming 2017?
2.15 Richie James MTSU 2017?
1.85 KD Cannon Baylor 2017?
1.14 Kenny Golladay N Illinois 2017?
0.81 Cedrick Wilson Boise St 2017?
0.20 Austin Carr N'western 2017?
-0.06 Mike Thomas USM 2016 (ended up with a 3.78 rtg)
-0.77 Bryce Treggs California 2016 (ended up with a 0.40 rtg)
-1.25 DeAngelo Yancey Purdue 2017?
-1.40 Jakeem Grant Texas Tech 2016 (ended up with a -0.39 rtg)
-1.62 Nicholas Norris Western Ky 2017?
-1.68 Mike Williams Clemson 2017?
-2.62 Evan Engram Miss 2017?
-2.81 Chris Godwin Penn State 2017?
You can see the breakdowns behind these numbers in my WR spreadsheet. These numbers are up-to-date, except that yards per target does not include bowl games. Also, Mike Williams & ArDarius Stewart still have 1 game to go, and I'm also missing some players' birthdates (so I am using estimated ages based on high school graduation year).
BigTex
Don't mess with Texas
PFF is the best in the business. A lot of NFL people use them. They are as credible as they come. They don't "skew" numbers lol.
Tex
Zyphros
Footballguy
I never said they skewed it, it is skewed because of what me and ZWK were pointing out. ZWK pointing out they don't cap the number to limit those numbers and me and him saying that Cook gets a lot of that in space and not between the hash's.
I'm not discrediting PFF at all.
bicycle_seat_sniffer
Smells like chicken
so what are we looking at as a top 5/6?
Dalvin Cook
Fournette
Corey Davis
JuJu
Mike Williams
Perine
McCaffery
Dalvin Cook
Fournette
Corey Davis
JuJu
Mike Williams
Perine
McCaffery
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jeaton6
Footballguy
If he weighed in at 210 but you know he gained the weight heading into the combine would your formula be able to account for this? i.e., you don't know how he performs on the field at that weight so does he get credit for the 210 weight even though his numbers were accumulated at the lower weight?
BigTex
Don't mess with Texas
BigTex
Don't mess with Texas
Depends on Mixon declaring or not. I would put him before Perine maybe even JuJu.
Tex
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
I will defer to the experts here but most mocks I've seen so far have Mike Williams as a top 10 NFL pick and JuJu as a 2nd rounder.
Casting Couch
Footballguy
When is the the deadline for Mixon to declare ?
Rodeojones
Footballguy
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John Ross could bump a few guys down if he can be paired with an accurate QB. He's much smaller than the other 3 listed. Of course the problem is that some sucky teams with sucky GM's think their sucky QB can get him the ball......Tavon Austin for example. They turn a diamond into coal the instant they draft him.
