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ZWK's 2017 Prospect Analysis (1 Viewer)

I watched Lamar Jackson's games against Florida State and Clemson, and he looks pretty bad as a passer. Lots of inaccurate throws, and he waits for guys to come open rather than throwing with timing or anticipation. Great runner, but it looks like it's going to be tough for him to transition to the NFL.
Wonder if he ends up down the Terrelle Pryor route, trying to be a QB before eventually switching to another position.  He's got size and clear open field ability... if the QB game never comes to him, he can be a weapon for a team willing to get him the ball.  Is he willing to put in the work to make that transition?

 
Wonder if he ends up down the Terrelle Pryor route, trying to be a QB before eventually switching to another position.  He's got size and clear open field ability... if the QB game never comes to him, he can be a weapon for a team willing to get him the ball.  Is he willing to put in the work to make that transition?
Pretty sure he's not going to have to worry about that scenario for quite a few years, and most likely not ever. Pryor was something like a 3rd/4th rounder in the supplemental draft as a developmental project at QB.  Jackson has refining to do as a QB, but he's a near lock top 5 pick in 2018.  

 
Derrius Guice has been lighting it up. He has 18 runs of 20+ yards on his 92 non-red-zone carries, over his LSU career, when an average RB would have 6. The top 7 RBs have some separation from the rest at this point (and are fairly closely packed together). Guice is in that group (at #4) along with Freeman, Cook, Perine, Chubb, Barkley, and Fournette.

At WR, JuJu Smith-Schuster's big game puts him above the production threshold for this season and into the clear #1 spot in my WR prospect formulas, leapfrogging Corey Davis.

His QB, freshman Sam Darnold, has rocketed up the rankings to #3. The top 10 QBs in production this year, by my formula, are:

Logan Woodside    Toledo
Jake Browning    Washington
Sam Darnold    USC
Jerod Evans    Va Tech
Patrick Mahomes II    Texas Tech
Chad Kelly    Miss
Baker Mayfield    Oklahoma
Brett Rypien    Boise St
Lamar Jackson    Louisville
Zach Terrell    W Mich

 
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My pass rusher spreadsheet is now up. Here's the top 10, based on production in 2015 & 2016 (sacks and tackles for loss, especially against Power 5 schools):

Ejuan Price    Pittsburgh    SR    DL
DeMarcus Walker    FSU    SR    DL
Derek Barnett    Tennessee    JR    DL
Myles Garrett    Texas A&M    JR    DL
Devonte Fields    Louisville    SR    LB
Duke Ejiofor    Wk Forest    JR    DL
Jordan Willis    Kansas St    SR    DL
Arden Key    LSU    SO    DL
Ifeadi Odenigbo    N'western    SR    DL
Marquel Lee    Wk Forest    SR    LB

Price, Walker, Barnett, Garrett, and Willis all have good production both this year and last year. Fields is up there based only on his 2015 production, and the others have only had top production this year. Barnett also had a huge 2014 which he is not credited for here. This is only based on production, not size, athleticism, age or anything else (e.g., Ejuan Price is a 6th year senior who is 3.5 years older than Derek Barnett).

 
I'm not doing full write ups right now, but Juju SS looks like an absolute beast in my models.  If he comes out after this year he'll play most of his rookie season as a 20 year old.  If he verifies at the combine (6'2"/220 -- reasonable speed/explosion mix, but you never really know until Indy) he's as good a prospect that has come out in recent years.

 
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I'm not doing full write ups right now, but Juju SS looks like an absolute beast in my models.  If he comes out after this year he'll play most of his rookie season as a 20 year old.  If he verifies at the combine (6'2"/220 -- reasonable speed/explosion mix, but you never really know until Indy) he's as good a prospect that has come out in recent years.
My numbers aren't that extreme yet - he is currently rated as the 17th best WR prospect over the past 12 draft classes (2006-2017). He could move up higher as we get more data on athleticism, drop rate, etc.

 
I've mentioned Evan Engram a few times as putting up strong numbers even for a WR prospect. How does he stack up against TEs, six games in? Here are a few top 10 leaderboards for college TE seasons (min 30 receptions, mostly limited to drafted TEs):

Rec Yards Per Game (since 2005)          
104.0    Jace Amaro    Texas Tech    2013
98.3    Evan Engram    Mississippi    2016
85.0    Ben Braunecker    Harvard    2015
82.5    Dennis Pitta    BYU    2008
82.3    Chase Coffman    Missouri    2008
79.4    Ladarius Green    La Lafayette    2010
79.2    Vernon Davis    Maryland    2005
75.5    Travis Beckum    Wisconsin    2007
74.8    Eric Ebron    North Carolina    2013
73.1    Charles Clay    Tulsa    2007
            
Rec Touchdowns Per Game (since 2005)          
1.08    MyCole Pruitt    Southern Illinois    2014
1.00    Jermaine Gresham    Oklahoma    2008
1.00    Rob Gronkowski    Arizona    2008
0.89    Tyler Higbee    Western Kentucky    2015
0.83    Evan Engram    Mississippi    2016
0.83    Chase Coffman    Missouri    2008
0.83    Marcedes Lewis    UCLA    2005
0.82    Tony Scheffler    Western Michigan    2005
0.82    Beau Sandland    Montana St.    2015
0.80    Ben Braunecker    Harvard    2015
            
Yards Per Target (since 2005)           
13.08    Coby Fleener    Stanford    2011
12.29    Clive Walford    Miami Fl    2014
12.28    Lance Kendricks    Wisconsin    2010
12.04    Evan Engram    Mississippi    2016
12.02    Jermaine Gresham    Oklahoma    2007
11.93    Vernon Davis    Maryland    2005
11.35    Tyler Higbee    Western Kentucky    2015
11.28    Travis Kelce    Cincinnati    2012
10.89    Evan Rodriguez    Temple    2011
10.87    Gary Barnidge    Louisville    2006
            
25+ Yard Receptions Per Game (since 2008)          
1.33    Evan Engram    Mississippi    2016
1.10    Ladarius Green    La Lafayette    2010
0.85    Jace Amaro    Texas Tech    2013
0.82    Eric Ebron    North Carolina    2012
0.80    Ben Braunecker    Harvard    2015
0.80    Rob Gronkowski    Arizona    2008
0.77    Thomas Duarte    UCLA    2015
0.77    Coby Fleener    Stanford    2011
0.75    Maxx Williams    Minnesota    2014
0.69    Eric Ebron    North Carolina    2013
            
Rec First Downs Per Game (since 2008)
5.31    Jace Amaro    Texas Tech    2013
4.75    Chase Coffman    Missouri    2008
4.46    Dennis Pitta    BYU    2008
3.67    Evan Engram    Mississippi    2016
3.54    Tyler Eifert    Notre Dame    2011
3.50    Stephen Anderson    California    2014
3.31    Dennis Pitta    BYU    2009
3.30    Ladarius Green    La Lafayette    2010
3.23    Eric Ebron    North Carolina    2013
3.20    Rob Gronkowski    Arizona    2008

Engram is the only player to make all 5 of the lists, and he makes the top five on each of them. Ebron makes 4 lists, and several players make 3 (Gronk, Pitta, Coffman, Ladarius Green, Amaro, and Braunecker). Vernon Davis makes 2 out of 3 possible (since he was pre-2008).

In terms of college production Engram is on his way to being the top TE on record (going back to 2005). If he keeps up his current pace then it won't be close.

 
If he's really 227 he's not really a TE.  What does he look like in your WR model? Guessing he might still be solid?

 
Not sure if this is the place to ask - but does anyone have a decent "top 10 fantasy rookies" list for the 2017 class, so I can start looking into some of those players.  I currently have 2 1st round rookie picks in my 10 team dynasty league, one likely early the other likely mid round.  Will there be any large drop offs between tiers?

 
Not sure if this is the place to ask - but does anyone have a decent "top 10 fantasy rookies" list for the 2017 class, so I can start looking into some of those players.  I currently have 2 1st round rookie picks in my 10 team dynasty league, one likely early the other likely mid round.  Will there be any large drop offs between tiers?


Some of the obvious names:

Nick Chubb

Leonard Fournette

Royce Freeman

Samaje Perine

Joe Mixon

Dalvin Cook

Christian McCaffrey

Elijah Hood

JuJu Smith-Schuster

Courtland Sutton

Mike Williams

Corey Davis

At TE, I've seen some mocks with OJ Howard, Jake Butt, and Bucky Hodges in the first round. Haven't really bothered to look at the QBs. There's Watson, Kizer, and others.

I want to see some of the low profile WRs at the combine (Darboh in particular).

 
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If he's really 227 he's not really a TE.  What does he look like in your WR model? Guessing he might still be solid?
He currently rates as my #3 WR prospect, at the front of the pack which is trailing behind Smith-Schuster & Davis.

Not sure if this is the place to ask - but does anyone have a decent "top 10 fantasy rookies" list for the 2017 class, so I can start looking into some of those players.  I currently have 2 1st round rookie picks in my 10 team dynasty league, one likely early the other likely mid round.  Will there be any large drop offs between tiers?
Going by my numbers, these are the 8 who I have rated as top tier:

RB: Dalvin Cook, Royce Freeman, Leonard Fournette, Nick Chubb, Samaje Perine

WR: JuJu Smith-Schuster, Corey Davis

TE: Evan Engram

There are a bunch of other highly regarded players who many see as first round NFL picks, including RB Christian McCaffrey, WR Mike Williams, WR Courtland Sutton, TE OJ Howard, QB Deshaun Watson, and QB Deshone Kizer.

A lot can change between now and the draft, so it's hard to predict what we'll think in June about the order or the size of the gaps.

 
He currently rates as my #3 WR prospect, at the front of the pack which is trailing behind Smith-Schuster & Davis.

Going by my numbers, these are the 8 who I have rated as top tier:

RB: Dalvin Cook, Royce Freeman, Leonard Fournette, Nick Chubb, Samaje Perine

WR: JuJu Smith-Schuster, Corey Davis

TE: Evan Engram
Not surprised that Evans looks good as a WR.  If he can run (an open Q) he'll be a good prospect in my model too.

Also, I just went through the prospects last night and took a high-level look at the class and came up with the same seven RB/WRs.  So we seem to be tracking more closely over time.

James Washington shows up as a pretty strong prospect for me too though.

Several of them will probably flame out at the combine (happens every year), but right now I'd gladly pick any of 7 or 8 guys.

 
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If he's really 227 he's not really a TE.  What does he look like in your WR model? Guessing he might still be solid?
He's listed as 6'3 too! When I watch him play he gets open at will. His size is the only question mark that I have. I've looked for reason why he shouldn't be the #1 TE taken and his size is the one thing I come back to. But, you watch him play and he'll make you change your mind. I have Butt #2 and Howard #3.

I have seen reports that NFL teams may draft him as a WR..........take it for what it is though.

Tex

 
There are some TEs who've been effective in the 240s, but 6'3"/227 is firmly in WR territory.  So he'll need to run in the ~4.5s, or he'll get probably get drafted late as a "tweener".  Or maybe he's packed on weight -- a lot of the measurements are wrong when we finally see them in Indy.

 
Dinsy Ejotuz said:
Not surprised that Evans looks good as a WR.  If he can run (an open Q) he'll be a good prospect in my model too.

Also, I just went through the prospects last night and took a high-level look at the class and came up with the same seven RB/WRs.  So we seem to be tracking more closely over time.

James Washington shows up as a pretty strong prospect for me too though.

Several of them will probably flame out at the combine (happens every year), but right now I'd gladly pick any of 7 or 8 guys.
There is a huge group of 10-20 WRs who look pretty good by my numbers who are in a large pack behind Engram. James Washington is in that pack, behind Amba Etta-Tawo, Dede Westbrook, and maybe Cooper Kupp (amazing stats in the FCS). The rest of the pack is the guys with an overall rtg above 3 in my WR spreadsheet, and maybe the ones with an overall rtg between 0 and 3.

 
Looking through some TE stats, O.J. Howard also looks like a good prospect. The main positives are elite athleticism (NFLdraftscout estimates him as running a 4.57 40) and excellent receiving efficiency (he has averaged 10+ YPT in each one of his 4 seasons). The main downsides are very few TDs (he has yet to top 2 TDs in a season) and mediocre receiving volume (602 rec yds in 2015 was okay, but in his other seasons he's been around 30 ypg). Not good enough to join the guys in my top 8, but he'd fit in there with the next batch of guys.

None of the other TEs that I've looked at seem very promising (e.g., Bucky Hodges, Jake Butt, Jordan Leggett, Jeremy Sprinkle). The one who comes in 3rd by my formulas is Washington TE Darrell Daniels, who also has elite athleticism (estimated 4.54 40) but has less production than Howard (career highs are 250 rec yds and 1 rec TD).

 
There are a lot of good receiving RBs in this draft class. Here's what 6 of the better ones have done over the past season and a half, since the start of the 2015 season:


Player


g


tg


rec


rec yd


rec td


rec 20+


yd/tg


yd/g


Jeremy McNichols


19


90


76


832


10


10


9.2


43.8


Christian McCaffrey


20


85


65


825


6


10


9.7


41.3


Curtis Samuel


20


85


59


760


5


11


8.9


38.0


Joe Mixon


20


59


50


678


8


9


11.5


33.9


Dalvin Cook


19


68


45


600


2


11


8.9


31.6


Donnel Pumphrey


21


78


48


561


2


8


7.2


26.7

These are sorted by receiving yards, and it roughly matches how impressive their receiving production has been. Pumphrey fairly clearly belongs at the bottom of the 6, and Cook in 5th (though he could move up the ranks if he keeps up what he's been doing this year as a receiver). Here are some numbers on their size, athleticism, and rushing:


Player


age


ht


wt


BMI


est 40


att


(FD+TD+20)/att


Jeremy McNichols


21.7


69


207


30.6


4.55


420


0.36


Christian McCaffrey


21.2


72


202


27.4


4.48


457


0.33


Curtis Samuel


21.1


71


200


27.9


4.52


81


0.51


Joe Mixon


21.1


73


226


29.8


4.49


223


0.43


Dalvin Cook


22.1


71


206


28.7


4.46


388


0.43


Donnel Pumphrey


22.7


68


180


27.4


4.43


500


0.36

(age as of 9/1/17)

You can see here why my overall RB rankings have Cook & Mixon ahead of the rest of this group (with both among my top 6 draft-eligible RBs). They seem to be the most likely to succeed in the NFL as runners, based on Cook's production and Mixon's size/athleticism & rushing efficiency (0.43 FD+TD+20/att is very good - average is around 0.35). Pumphrey is last among this group in the overall RB rankings because of his lack of size, and the other 3 are bunched tightly together in between.

 
Looking at the top of the rankings:

At RB, Saquon Barkley has moved into the #1 spot of my prospect ratings with his big game against Purdue. He has been producing in the receiving game as well as on the ground, now up to 213 receiving yards on the year. Behind him, Dalvin Cook is currently edging out Leonard Fournette for the top spot among draft-eligible RBs. The top pack could keep reshuffling over the rest of the season, although it is starting to spread out a bit more with Royce Freeman, Samaje Perine, Nick Chubb, Joe Mixon, and Derrius Guice straggling a bit.

At WR, Dede Westbrook is the top receiver in terms of this year's production. His 3.94 yards per team attempt is the most in college football (among teams with 125 passing attempts), and he's tied for the lead with 11 receiving TDs. Amba Etta-Tawo is right behind him, with huge numbers on an otherwise not-so-impressive Syracuse passing offense. In terms of overall prospect ratings, JuJu Smith-Schuster still leads the way (thanks to his big 2015 season and his prototypical size & speed), followed by Corey Davis, Etta-Tawo, and Westbrook.

At TE, Evan Engram is still way out in front of everyone else (though he has slipped back a bit compared to the top WRs). Jordan Leggett has come on strong to take the #2 TE spot in terms of this year's production (among the smallish set of guys that I've looked at), and Leggett has also edged in front of O.J. Howard for the #2 spot in my overall TE prospect ratings.

At QB, redshirt freshman Sam Darnold has been lighting it up and is currently sitting at the top of my production ratings for this season. He has been finishing drives ridiculously well – 61% of his 23 red zone passes have gone for a touchdown. Sophomore Jake Browning is in second, and the top draft-eligible QBs are #3 Logan Woodside and #4 Baker Mayfield.

Among edge rushers, Derek Barnett is tied for most sacks with 9, with all 9 of those coming against Power 5 schools. He is 2nd in tackles for loss against Power 5 schools, and first in my edge rusher production rankings. For this season's production, Ejuan Price and Takkarist McKinley round out the top 3. Including last season's production as well, McKinley gets bumped down to #5 behind Myles Garrett in 3rd and DeMarcus Walker in 4th.

 
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It definitely seems weaker at the top than it did a couple months ago, when Fournette, Chubb, and Smith-Schuster looked like the cream of the crop. The depth still seems relatively strong, although that will depend on things like who declares and which of the emerging WRs like Etta-Tawo continue to look like legit prospects. On the whole, the strategy of trading for 2017 1sts is not looking as good as it did.

Hood's efficiency numbers are also down this year. Only 45 receiving yards on those 12 receptions (which is below 4 YPR), and he only has 0.31 first downs + touchdowns + 20 yard carries per attempt (which is the same as Fournette & Chubb, where last year all three of them were above 0.40).
It appears Hood has been dinged and concussed... Today was his first stud performance of the year. Unless he finishes very strong, I honestly think staying in school one more year would help. 

 
Looking through some TE stats, O.J. Howard also looks like a good prospect. The main positives are elite athleticism (NFLdraftscout estimates him as running a 4.57 40) and excellent receiving efficiency (he has averaged 10+ YPT in each one of his 4 seasons). The main downsides are very few TDs (he has yet to top 2 TDs in a season) and mediocre receiving volume (602 rec yds in 2015 was okay, but in his other seasons he's been around 30 ypg). Not good enough to join the guys in my top 8, but he'd fit in there with the next batch of guys.

None of the other TEs that I've looked at seem very promising (e.g., Bucky Hodges, Jake Butt, Jordan Leggett, Jeremy Sprinkle). The one who comes in 3rd by my formulas is Washington TE Darrell Daniels, who also has elite athleticism (estimated 4.54 40) but has less production than Howard (career highs are 250 rec yds and 1 rec TD).
I'm a huge fan of Cole Hikutini. He's going to be a huge mismatch at the next level.

Tex

 
Here are the top 27 RBs by my metrics:

Saquon Barkley    Penn State *
Dalvin Cook    FSU
Leonard Fournette    LSU
Samaje Perine    Oklahoma
Royce Freeman    Oregon
Nick Chubb    Georgia
Joe Mixon    Oklahoma
    
Derrius Guice    LSU *
Elijah Hood    N Carolina
Christian McCaffrey    Stanford
Kareem Hunt    Toledo
Curtis Samuel    Ohio State
James Conner    Pittsburgh
D’Onta Foreman    Texas
James Butler    Nevada
Jeremy McNichols    Boise St
    
Mike Weber    Ohio State *
Wayne Gallman    Clemson
Kyle Hicks    TCU
Corey Clement    Wisconsin
Elijah McGuire    La-Lafytte
Kalen Ballage    Ariz St
Jamaal Williams    BYU
Lavon Coleman    Washington
Aaron Jones    UTEP
Rodney Smith    Minnesota
Trayveon Williams    Texas A&M *

* not draft eligible

There is a relatively steady dropoff from the top to the bottom of this list. The tier breaks don't represent large gaps, but it still felt more informative to include them than to leave them out. Roughly, tier 1 is strong early-round prospects, tier 2 is okay prospects, and tier 3 is guys who are in striking distance but need to show something more in order for me to have much interest in them (like a strong combine or good numbers on yards after contact which I haven't seen yet). But keep in mind that the lines between these 3 bins aren't sharp divisions; for example the drop from Mixon to Guice is significantly smaller than the drop from Barkley to Mixon or the drop from Guice to McNichols.

I've already written a lot about tier 1. The most notable change is Mixon being on the fringe of the top tier. Also, Guice has fallen from tier 1 to the top of tier 2 - his numbers have been way down over the past couple weeks, and most of his production this year is from three big games against bad defenses.

Tier 2 has an interesting mix of big bruisers (Hood, Hunt, Conner, Foreman) and excellent receiving backs (McCaffrey, Samuel, McNichols). Though Hunt & Conner actually have reasonably good receiving stats; not so much for Hood (terrible YPR) or Foreman (very few receptions). James Butler makes it into this tier primarily on the strength of his elusiveness stats from PFF, rather than raw production, athleticism, or size.

In tier 3, Gallman, Clement, McGuire, and Jamaal Williams all have relatively poor raw stats, but get a boost from relatively good elusiveness in the games that I've watched.

Among non-draft-eligible RBs, there is a very clear top 3 with a very clear order (Barkley, Guice, Weber).

If I continued the list past 27 players, names that would make it into tier 4 include Stanley Boom Williams, Matthew Dayes, Donnel Pumphrey, and Alvin Kamara. There also might be some guys that I'm missing who aren't currently among the top 100 in rushing yards this season.

 
Myles Gaskin will be a better prospect than a lot of those guys. He will be like Ameer Abdullah, or maybe a bit like Warrick Dunn.

 
Myles Gaskin will be a better prospect than a lot of those guys. He will be like Ameer Abdullah, or maybe a bit like Warrick Dunn.
Could be. He's currently in my tier 4, which is less bad for an underclassman than for a guy who is going into the draft (only 4 underclassmen made my first 3 tiers).

PFF really liked Gaskin last year, and said that he had a high yards after contact. I have watched one game cut-up of his, and he didn't have good yards after contact numbers in that one, but it's just one game. His rushing stats have been averageish (e.g., he's only broke off a 20-yard run on 5.1% of his non-red-zone carries during his career, vs. 7.3% for Abdullah in 2013-14). His receiving numbers have been terrible (64 career receiving yards in 22 games, at 4.0 YPR). NFLDraftscout estimates him at 195 pounds - it would be a serious concern if he weighs that at the combine, although underclassmen often wind up weighing more than what they're estimated at.

 
Looking through some TE stats, O.J. Howard also looks like a good prospect. The main positives are elite athleticism (NFLdraftscout estimates him as running a 4.57 40) and excellent receiving efficiency (he has averaged 10+ YPT in each one of his 4 seasons). The main downsides are very few TDs (he has yet to top 2 TDs in a season) and mediocre receiving volume (602 rec yds in 2015 was okay, but in his other seasons he's been around 30 ypg). Not good enough to join the guys in my top 8, but he'd fit in there with the next batch of guys.

None of the other TEs that I've looked at seem very promising (e.g., Bucky Hodges, Jake Butt, Jordan Leggett, Jeremy Sprinkle). The one who comes in 3rd by my formulas is Washington TE Darrell Daniels, who also has elite athleticism (estimated 4.54 40) but has less production than Howard (career highs are 250 rec yds and 1 rec TD).
There are some very talented TEs in this coming draft and this is one of those situations in which some more detailed evaluations are required to determine their ranking/tier because the stats are not going to show up for these prospects. Watching the games are important and even more so with this class. Don't let the numbers fool you into thinking there's no good prospects this year because there are several including Jake Butt.

Tex

 
Could be. He's currently in my tier 4, which is less bad for an underclassman than for a guy who is going into the draft (only 4 underclassmen made my first 3 tiers).

PFF really liked Gaskin last year, and said that he had a high yards after contact. I have watched one game cut-up of his, and he didn't have good yards after contact numbers in that one, but it's just one game. His rushing stats have been averageish (e.g., he's only broke off a 20-yard run on 5.1% of his non-red-zone carries during his career, vs. 7.3% for Abdullah in 2013-14). His receiving numbers have been terrible (64 career receiving yards in 22 games, at 4.0 YPR). NFLDraftscout estimates him at 195 pounds - it would be a serious concern if he weighs that at the combine, although underclassmen often wind up weighing more than what they're estimated at.
Height/weight/speed will keep him out of the first, but I think the second round is a possibility. He's cut from the same cloth as guys like Bernard, Abdullah, and McCoy. Lacking the ideal workout numbers, but compensates with special running skills. He has good agility and elusiveness. Not as good as McCoy, but he's a stronger runner and probably faster.

 
EBF said:
Height/weight/speed will keep him out of the first, but I think the second round is a possibility. He's cut from the same cloth as guys like Bernard, Abdullah, and McCoy. Lacking the ideal workout numbers, but compensates with special running skills. He has good agility and elusiveness. Not as good as McCoy, but he's a stronger runner and probably faster.
Any idea why Gaskin's receiving numbers are so terrible? Bernard, Abdullah, and McCoy were all very good receivers in college.

 
No. It may just be a system/usage thing. They don't give him a lot of chances to catch the ball. That doesn't necessarily mean he can't do it well.

 
At this point my WR formula is basically giving a thumbs up to 6 FBS WRs, with an enthusiastic thumbs up for 2 of them. Corey Davis & JuJu Smith-Schuster get the enthusiastic thumbs up. John Ross & Dede Westbrook get a thumbs up and also seem to check the boxes of being highly regarded and matching the NFL-type for a speedy deep threat (assuming their workout numbers match their projected sub-4.4 40 times). Ross has been getting positive press all season, and my formula finally came around on him over the past couple weeks as he had his biggest 2 games of the year. Amba Etta-Tawo and Curtis Samuel also get a thumbs up from my formula, though with Samuel I'm worried that the formula credits him too much for his success as a runner and with Etta-Tawo there is a concern that his reputation doesn't match his numbers.

Cooper Kupp has been lighting up the FCS for 4 years now and probably also belongs up there, making it a top 7.

After that, there are another 20-30 WRs who come out of the formula in the territory of meh / can't rule him out / might wind up liking him if other indicators appear where he looks good.

Here's the full top 35 list for FBS receivers, with tier breaks:

Corey Davis    W Mich
JuJu Smith-Schuster    USC
    
Amba Etta-Tawo    Syracuse
Curtis Samuel    Ohio State
John Ross    Washington
Dede Westbrook    Oklahoma
    
Taywan Taylor    Western Ky
ArDarius Stewart    Alabama
Carlos Henderson    La Tech
Cody Thompson    Toledo *
Shelton Gibson    WVU
James Washington    Okla St
Jonathan Giles    Texas Tech *
Keevan Lucas    Tulsa
Austin Carr    N'western
Anthony Miller    Memphis
Chad Hansen    California
Josh Reynolds    Texas A&M
Kenny Golladay    N Illinois
    
Tanner Gentry    Wyoming
Shay Fields    Colorado
Nick Westbrook    Indiana *
Jalen Robinette    Air Force
Thomas Sperbeck    Boise St
Richie James    MTSU
    
Scott Miller    BGSU *
Jester Weah    Pittsburgh
Amara Darboh    Michigan
Josh Malone    Tennessee
Evan Engram    Miss
Equanimeous St. Brown    Notre Dame *
Mike Williams    Clemson
Courtland Sutton    SMU
Nicholas Norris    Western Ky
Isaiah Ford    Va Tech

* not draft eligible

 
ZWK where would the 2015 WR rank with the 2016 group?

I haven't taken the time to watch any of these WR but I get the sense that Davis and JuJu (as well as the rest) are not as good as Coleman or Doctson. I might be way off on that though and that idea may just be due to my lack of familiarity of the incoming WRs.

 
ZWK where would the 2015 WR rank with the 2016 group?

I haven't taken the time to watch any of these WR but I get the sense that Davis and JuJu (as well as the rest) are not as good as Coleman or Doctson. I might be way off on that though and that idea may just be due to my lack of familiarity of the incoming WRs.
Coleman and Doctson have done squat this year. This class has been a major disappointment.

 
ZWK where would the 2015 WR rank with the 2016 group?

I haven't taken the time to watch any of these WR but I get the sense that Davis and JuJu (as well as the rest) are not as good as Coleman or Doctson. I might be way off on that though and that idea may just be due to my lack of familiarity of the incoming WRs.
That's actually a bit tricky to say, since WR ratings become more extreme as I get more information on them. My final rankings last year included athleticism (as measured by the vertical & broad jump), drop rate, yards after the catch per reception, and how consistently each receiver got open in Harmon's Reception Perception charting. Coleman & Doctson both got a boost from those metrics (they each did well on 3 out of those 4). Right now I'm essentially assuming that Davis & JuJu (and all of the other college receivers) are exactly average on those metrics, since I don't have data on them. So they are currently rated behind where Coleman & Doctson ended up (and a bit ahead of where Shepard & Fuller ended up), but that could easily change as more data come in.

Where's the love for Mike Williams?
Mike Williams ranks 19th in the nation in receiving yards per game, and is averageish or worse at the other main stats that I look at. I expect a strong NFL prospect to beat defenses for touchdowns or big plays, but Williams hasn't done that often. And I expect a prolific passing offense to inflate its receivers stats, and Williams looks less good after adjusting for that (Clemson is 7th in pyds/g, 8th in pTDs/g).

Some stats: Williams's has 96 recyd/g, but he only has 28% of his team's passing yards and 2.2 yds per team attempt (both of which are slightly below average, compared to the top 100 players in receiving yards). He has 6 TDs in 10 games, which is averageish or very slightly below, but that is only 19% of his team's passing TDs (and 12% of his team's offensive TDs) which is well below average. He has 8 25+ yard gains and 1 40+ yard gain, both of which are a bit below average. My yards per target numbers are a bit out of date because my source hasn't been updating, but I have him estimated at 8.9 YPT which is basically average.

Williams does get a boost for his size, and for his 2014 season which was a bit better than this one by my numbers. That's enough to put him in the top 35 but not enough to put him very high in it.

 
That's actually a bit tricky to say, since WR ratings become more extreme as I get more information on them. My final rankings last year included athleticism (as measured by the vertical & broad jump), drop rate, yards after the catch per reception, and how consistently each receiver got open in Harmon's Reception Perception charting. Coleman & Doctson both got a boost from those metrics (they each did well on 3 out of those 4). Right now I'm essentially assuming that Davis & JuJu (and all of the other college receivers) are exactly average on those metrics, since I don't have data on them. So they are currently rated behind where Coleman & Doctson ended up (and a bit ahead of where Shepard & Fuller ended up), but that could easily change as more data come in.

Mike Williams ranks 19th in the nation in receiving yards per game, and is averageish or worse at the other main stats that I look at. I expect a strong NFL prospect to beat defenses for touchdowns or big plays, but Williams hasn't done that often. And I expect a prolific passing offense to inflate its receivers stats, and Williams looks less good after adjusting for that (Clemson is 7th in pyds/g, 8th in pTDs/g).

Some stats: Williams's has 96 recyd/g, but he only has 28% of his team's passing yards and 2.2 yds per team attempt (both of which are slightly below average, compared to the top 100 players in receiving yards). He has 6 TDs in 10 games, which is averageish or very slightly below, but that is only 19% of his team's passing TDs (and 12% of his team's offensive TDs) which is well below average. He has 8 25+ yard gains and 1 40+ yard gain, both of which are a bit below average. My yards per target numbers are a bit out of date because my source hasn't been updating, but I have him estimated at 8.9 YPT which is basically average.

Williams does get a boost for his size, and for his 2014 season which was a bit better than this one by my numbers. That's enough to put him in the top 35 but not enough to put him very high in it.
He will go top 3 in dynasty drafts and for good reason.  I believe he has a very good chance to be as good as ODB, or at least Mike Evans good.  Remember, Beckham Jr wasn't ranked as the best WR coming out and was taken in many dynasty drafts around the middle or top middile of the first round.  I also believe he has a very good chance at being better than JuJu, or at least as good.  There is a lot to consider about a player's performance in college.

 
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He will go top 3 in dynasty drafts and for good reason.
Could be.

There are 8 first round WRs from the past 11 draft classes that my system was down on (though some of them came out before I set up my system). Starting with the ones that my formula was most pessimistic about, they are: Darrius Heyward-Bey, Anthony Gonzalez, Laquon Treadwell, Cordarrelle Patterson, Craig Davis, Kelvin Benjamin, Ted Ginn Jr., and Michael Floyd. There have been some NFL successes among this group, but not as much as you'd hope for with first round WRs.

(Mike Williams would currently slot in between Craig Davis and Kelvin Benjamin.)

 
Could be.

There are 8 first round WRs from the past 11 draft classes that my system was down on (though some of them came out before I set up my system). Starting with the ones that my formula was most pessimistic about, they are: Darrius Heyward-Bey, Anthony Gonzalez, Laquon Treadwell, Cordarrelle Patterson, Craig Davis, Kelvin Benjamin, Ted Ginn Jr., and Michael Floyd. There have been some NFL successes among this group, but not as much as you'd hope for with first round WRs.

(Mike Williams would currently slot in between Craig Davis and Kelvin Benjamin.)
Curious where ODB ranked based on your system...  who are the WRs around him?  It's an interesting exercise to look back now that some of these guys have had some success. 

 
He will go top 3 in dynasty drafts and for good reason.  I believe he has a very good chance to be as good as ODB, or at least Mike Evans good.  Remember, Beckham Jr wasn't ranked as the best WR coming out and was taken in many dynasty drafts around the middle or top middile of the first round.  I also believe he has a very good chance at being better than JuJu, or at least as good.  There is a lot to consider about a player's performance in college.
Wow...two receivers in this draft as good as ODB/Evans? Interesting....

 
Curious where ODB ranked based on your system...  who are the WRs around him?  It's an interesting exercise to look back now that some of these guys have had some success. 
My predraft writeup of Beckham's class is here. I had him ranked 9th but he was still in my top tier - I said "You could think of the top tier as "10 WRs who made the cut." I'm not all that confident about the order within the top 10. But there is a very clear gap after [#10] Latimer, and everyone from Latimer up rates within the range that successful NFL WRs tend to come from." After the draft I basically saw him as a generic first round WR, which meant that I thought he had a reasonable chance of becoming a star and a reasonable chance of being a bust.

You can also see my WR ratings since the 2006 draft class sorted by rating or by draft pick.

 
Mike Williams is basically getting the Michael Thomas treatment in the production department. He'll be fine.

 
Mike Williams is basically getting the Michael Thomas treatment in the production department. He'll be fine.
Last year, Laquon Treadwell & Michael Thomas were the two players who were highly-regarded but had unimpressive production. This year it's Mike Williams.

 
The guys who are being talked about as this draft's top QB prospects don't have especially impressive production. Here are the top 10 QBs this year according to my production rating:

Baker Mayfield    Oklahoma    JR
Sam Darnold    USC    FR
Logan Woodside    Toledo    JR
Jake Browning    Washington    SO
Brett Rypien    Boise St    SO
Nathan Peterman    Pittsburgh    SR
Chad Kelly    Miss    SR
Ryan Higgins    La Tech    SR
Mike White    Western Ky    JR
Jerod Evans    Va Tech    JR

The most notable thing about this list is that it does not include any of the big names - no Deshaun Watson, DeShone Kizer, Mitch Trubisky, or Brad Kaaya. Also missing are most of the guys who some people are talking about as 2nd or 3rd rounders, like Mason Rudolph, Davis Webb, Luke Falk, and Patrick Mahomes. Chad Kelly is the only guy here who seems to be in discussions to be a top 100 pick.

Most of the name QBs fall in the "solid but not elite production" category, ranked 15th-35th in production (Mahomes is a bit ahead of that range in 11th and Webb is a bit behind that range in 46th). Some good NFL QBs had that level of college production, like Dak Prescott and Derek Carr, but it's still below what's typical of a successful NFL QB or an early first round QB. So I'm feeling not-so-excited about this year's QB class (and somewhat nervous, as a fan of a QB-needy NFL team with an early pick).

Guys with great college numbers who do not get drafted early don't have a very good NFL track record. Russell Wilson (whose 2011 season was the best-rated on record, going back to 2008) has been a huge success as a 3rd round pick, but guys drafted later than that (or undrafted) have not done much. So I am not very optimistic about the draft-eligible guys in the top 10 list, although it's at least worth paying attention to them during the pre-draft process.

 
The guys who are being talked about as this draft's top QB prospects don't have especially impressive production. Here are the top 10 QBs this year according to my production rating:

Baker Mayfield    Oklahoma    JR
Sam Darnold    USC    FR
Logan Woodside    Toledo    JR
Jake Browning    Washington    SO
Brett Rypien    Boise St    SO
Nathan Peterman    Pittsburgh    SR
Chad Kelly    Miss    SR
Ryan Higgins    La Tech    SR
Mike White    Western Ky    JR
Jerod Evans    Va Tech    JR

The most notable thing about this list is that it does not include any of the big names - no Deshaun Watson, DeShone Kizer, Mitch Trubisky, or Brad Kaaya. Also missing are most of the guys who some people are talking about as 2nd or 3rd rounders, like Mason Rudolph, Davis Webb, Luke Falk, and Patrick Mahomes. Chad Kelly is the only guy here who seems to be in discussions to be a top 100 pick.

Most of the name QBs fall in the "solid but not elite production" category, ranked 15th-35th in production (Mahomes is a bit ahead of that range in 11th and Webb is a bit behind that range in 46th). Some good NFL QBs had that level of college production, like Dak Prescott and Derek Carr, but it's still below what's typical of a successful NFL QB or an early first round QB. So I'm feeling not-so-excited about this year's QB class (and somewhat nervous, as a fan of a QB-needy NFL team with an early pick).

Guys with great college numbers who do not get drafted early don't have a very good NFL track record. Russell Wilson (whose 2011 season was the best-rated on record, going back to 2008) has been a huge success as a 3rd round pick, but guys drafted later than that (or undrafted) have not done much. So I am not very optimistic about the draft-eligible guys in the top 10 list, although it's at least worth paying attention to them during the pre-draft process.
There has to be a way to adjust for level of competition in your ratings.  None of the non-power 5 QBs are seriously considered to be legit QB prospects, except maybe Rypien.

 
There has to be a way to adjust for level of competition in your ratings.  None of the non-power 5 QBs are seriously considered to be legit QB prospects, except maybe Rypien.
I do have a strength of schedule adjustment in there. Right now my ratings are basically 5/6 production and 1/6 SOS.

I just took a look at the game logs from the 2015 season, and it looks like the SOS adjustment should be a little stronger (around 1/4 rather than 1/6). That is based on how much a QB's Adj YPA declines when he is playing against a stronger opponent (as measured by SRS).

If I make that change, then Ryan Higgins slides out of the top 10 and is replaced at #10 by Deondre Francois. Though the tier break moves to either the top 9 or the top 14. Francois & Higgins are tightly clustered together along with Tyler O'Connor, Austin Allen, and Patrick Mahomes.

 
For my pass rusher spreadsheet, I've added size & speed estimates from nfldraftscout for the top set of players. Including those numbers along with production (sacks & tackles for a loss, this season and last season), my formula gives a top 5 of:

Myles Garrett    Texas A&M    JR
Takkarist McKinley    UCLA    SR
Derek Barnett    Tennessee    JR
Harold Landry    BC    JR
DeMarcus Walker    FSU    SR

After those 5, there is a big group of 10 guys all tightly packed together (Hunter Dimick, Jordan Willis, Duke Ejiofor, Haason Reddick, Charles Harris, Jonathan Allen, Bradley Chubb, Ejuan Price, Tim Williams, Taco Charlton).

 

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