ZWK's 2018 Prospect Analysis (1 Viewer)

[Bri]

Why is a ten yard split of 1.5 very good? I think math and 10 times 4 is 40 so 1.5 times 4 is 6 and not very good at all.

Hand on stop watch? human delay?

 

[Leroy's Aces]

Why is a ten yard split of 1.5 very good? I think math and 10 times 4 is 40 so 1.5 times 4 is 6 and not very good at all.

Hand on stop watch? human delay?

Because you start the 40 going 0 miles per hour and are going full speed for the entirety of the other three 10-yard quartiles.

 

[Tau837]

Hines was the worst receiver of the bunch according to PFF

Is that for career or just 2017? He actually played WR his first 2 seasons and had 63/781/1 (12.4 ypr) in those seasons. He played WR in those seasons because State had Matt Dayes as its feature back and Samuels in his hybrid position. Then in his third season, he replaced Dayes as the feature back, but Samuels was a senior in the hybrid position who had 75 catches, and State also had a very strong receiving corps, so Hines didn't get targeted much.

It is also worth noting that Hines is a good pass blocker and is good on special teams coverage in addition to returns.

I think his landing spot matters a lot. He could have value with a creative OC.

 

[Bronco Billy]

Why is a ten yard split of 1.5 very good? I think math and 10 times 4 is 40 so 1.5 times 4 is 6 and not very good at all.

Hand on stop watch? human delay?

Not starting at full speed, which is where the remaining 30 yds are run?

.

 

[ZWK]

Is that for career or just 2017? He actually played WR his first 2 seasons and had 63/781/1 (12.4 ypr) in those seasons. He played WR in those seasons because State had Matt Dayes as its feature back and Samuels in his hybrid position. Then in his third season, he replaced Dayes as the feature back, but Samuels was a senior in the hybrid position who had 75 catches, and State also had a very strong receiving corps, so Hines didn't get targeted much.

It is also worth noting that Hines is a good pass blocker and is good on special teams coverage in addition to returns.

I think his landing spot matters a lot. He could have value with a creative OC.

Hines's receiving grade was lower than the other guys this year, and on average over the past 3 years. Hines did have a good receiving grade in 2016 and was okay on the whole, it's just that the other guys were better. Or at least, Ito Smith & Larry Rose were better; I'm not sure about Stockton - he's ranked so low that PFF doesn't share the details on his grades. Boston Scott also has better receiving grades than Hines but Scott didn't have nearly as many receptions or receiving yards.

Why is Derrick Henry not higher? Heisman, gaudy stats, size and power, high average...I would figure he's pretty high. I clicked and you mentioned elusiveness grade from PFF. I don't know what that is but would assume he's low there.

Sankey was the top RB and first RB taken during a weak draft for RBs. I understand him lower but to a point. 

Leonard Fournette is a million times better than Andre Williams. Do ya think his ranking is off?

Where are you at evaluating and tweaking your system?

You can see more detail about backs from previous draft classes via the links in the first post in this thread which go to their draft class. Briefly, Derrick Henry had gaudy totals but middling per-carry efficiency stats and didn't do much in the passing game, Fournette had great production in his next-to-last season but not in his last season, and Sankey was above average on a lot of attributes but didn't stand out as great at anything.

I don't have any major changes in the works.

 

[ZWK]

Matt Harmon so far has Reception Perception data up for 11 WRs in this draft class. I have crunched the numbers on his data to calculate an overall score for how often they get open. Here the rankings, compared to the guys in past 2 draft classes:

Carlos Henderson    2017
Sterling Shepard    2016
DaeSean Hamilton    2018
Isaiah Ford    2017
Equanimeous St. Brown    2018
Calvin Ridley    2018
Josh Doctson    2016
Chris Godwin    2017
James Washington    2018
Rashard Higgins    2016
DJ Moore    2018
Josh Reynolds    2017
Corey Coleman    2016
Ryan Switzer    2017
Mike Williams    2017
Christian Kirk    2018
John Ross    2017
Laquon Treadwell    2016
Taywan Taylor    2017
Corey Davis    2017
Michael Thomas    2016
Malcolm Mitchell    2016
Mike Thomas    2016
Chad Hansen    2017
Zay Jones    2017
Courtland Sutton    2018
Anthony Miller    2018
Michael Gallup    2018
Ishmael Zamora    2017
Leonte Carroo    2016
Kenny Lawler    2016
(average)
Keyarris Garrett    2016
Ardarius Stewart    2017
JuJu Smith-Schuster    2017
Will Fuller    2016
Josh Malone    2017
Braxton Miller    2016
Demarcus Robinson    2016
DJ Chark    2018
Dante Pettis    2018
Tajae Sharpe    2016
Pharoh Cooper    2016
De'Runnya Wilson    2016
Roger Lewis    2016
Dede Westbrook    2017
Cooper Kupp    2017
Charone Peake    2016
Amara Darboh    2017
Aaron Burbridge    2016
Tyler Boyd    2016
Malachi Dupre    2017

 

[cloppbeast]

Matt Harmon so far has Reception Perception data up for 11 WRs in this draft class. I have crunched the numbers on his data to calculate an overall score for how often they get open. Here the rankings, compared to the guys in past 2 draft classes:

Carlos Henderson    2017
Sterling Shepard    2016
DaeSean Hamilton    2018
Isaiah Ford    2017
Equanimeous St. Brown    2018
Calvin Ridley    2018
Josh Doctson    2016
Chris Godwin    2017
James Washington    2018
Rashard Higgins    2016
DJ Moore    2018
Josh Reynolds    2017
Corey Coleman    2016
Ryan Switzer    2017
Mike Williams    2017
Christian Kirk    2018
John Ross    2017
Laquon Treadwell    2016
Taywan Taylor    2017
Corey Davis    2017
Michael Thomas    2016
Malcolm Mitchell    2016
Mike Thomas    2016
Chad Hansen    2017
Zay Jones    2017
Courtland Sutton    2018
Anthony Miller    2018
Michael Gallup    2018
Ishmael Zamora    2017
Leonte Carroo    2016
Kenny Lawler    2016
(average)
Keyarris Garrett    2016
Ardarius Stewart    2017
JuJu Smith-Schuster    2017
Will Fuller    2016
Josh Malone    2017
Braxton Miller    2016
Demarcus Robinson    2016
DJ Chark    2018
Dante Pettis    2018
Tajae Sharpe    2016
Pharoh Cooper    2016
De'Runnya Wilson    2016
Roger Lewis    2016
Dede Westbrook    2017
Cooper Kupp    2017
Charone Peake    2016
Amara Darboh    2017
Aaron Burbridge    2016
Tyler Boyd    2016
Malachi Dupre    2017

Strange that most of the receivers who have succeeded in the NFL are in the middle or near bottom of this list.

 

[smbkrypt24]

Strange that most of the receivers who have succeeded in the NFL are in the middle or near bottom of this list.

This was exactly my thoughts when I read it.  I was wondering if being on the top of this list is an indication you should avoid.

 

[ZWK]

It is just the past 2 draft classes, so there aren't many WR successes. I think I'd just count Michael Thomas, JuJu Smith-Schuster, and Cooper Kupp. So not much data to tell how meaningful this stat is. He has also done some charting of NFL WRs, which I'm going to try to take a closer look at sometime this offseason. My current guess is that this stat is mildly to moderately informative - higher scores are better - but it's not hugely important.

 

[Bojang0301]

Strange that most of the receivers who have succeeded in the NFL are in the middle or near bottom of this list.

There is a theory that route running success is partially correlated with age and level of competition.

 

[Biabreakable]

Matt Harmon so far has Reception Perception data up for 11 WRs in this draft class. I have crunched the numbers on his data to calculate an overall score for how often they get open. Here the rankings, compared to the guys in past 2 draft classes:

Carlos Henderson    2017
Sterling Shepard    2016
DaeSean Hamilton    2018
Isaiah Ford    2017
Equanimeous St. Brown    2018
Calvin Ridley    2018
Josh Doctson    2016
Chris Godwin    2017
James Washington    2018
Rashard Higgins    2016
DJ Moore    2018
Josh Reynolds    2017
Corey Coleman    2016
Ryan Switzer    2017
Mike Williams    2017
Christian Kirk    2018
John Ross    2017
Laquon Treadwell    2016
Taywan Taylor    2017
Corey Davis    2017
Michael Thomas    2016
Malcolm Mitchell    2016
Mike Thomas    2016
Chad Hansen    2017
Zay Jones    2017
Courtland Sutton    2018
Anthony Miller    2018
Michael Gallup    2018
Ishmael Zamora    2017
Leonte Carroo    2016
Kenny Lawler    2016
(average)
Keyarris Garrett    2016
Ardarius Stewart    2017
JuJu Smith-Schuster    2017
Will Fuller    2016
Josh Malone    2017
Braxton Miller    2016
Demarcus Robinson    2016
DJ Chark    2018
Dante Pettis    2018
Tajae Sharpe    2016
Pharoh Cooper    2016
De'Runnya Wilson    2016
Roger Lewis    2016
Dede Westbrook    2017
Cooper Kupp    2017
Charone Peake    2016
Amara Darboh    2017
Aaron Burbridge    2016
Tyler Boyd    2016
Malachi Dupre    2017

I am surprised to see Equanimeous St. Brown so high on this list.

 

[ZWK]

There is a theory that route running success is partially correlated with age and level of competition.

I did include a strength of schedule adjustment.

I am surprised to see Equanimeous St. Brown so high on this list.

Harmon has more to say in his article, Hard to Find the Faults in Equanimeous St. Brown’s Game. (He has individual articles about most of the guys in this year's group.) It's interesting because St. Brown's production was way down this year compared to last year, and he still put up strong numbers with Harmon charting games from this season.

 

[Soulfly3]

Forget that good work you're discussing right now @ZWK... You still hot on shad penny?

 

[Mr. Irrelevant]

It is just the past 2 draft classes, so there aren't many WR successes. I think I'd just count Michael Thomas, JuJu Smith-Schuster, and Cooper Kupp. So not much data to tell how meaningful this stat is. He has also done some charting of NFL WRs, which I'm going to try to take a closer look at sometime this offseason. My current guess is that this stat is mildly to moderately informative - higher scores are better - but it's not hugely important.

Yeah, this has 'small sample size' written all over it.

If you look at the names nearer the top of the list whose NFL performance has fallen short of expectations, a shocking number of them missed significant time with injuries: Shepard, Doctson, Coleman, Williams, Davis, Ross. If instead those six had stayed healthy and JJSS, Kupp, and Westbrook had missed ten games each, it's entirely likely we'd be marveling at the amazing positive correlation between this ranking and NFL production.

 

[ZWK]

Forget that good work you're discussing right now @ZWK... You still hot on shad penny?

Yep.

 

[ZWK]

My pre-draft take on QBs is basically the same as my pre-combine views. Mayfield & Darnold are a clear top 2 for NFL or fantasy. For fantasy, Lamar Jackson is close behind as #3. Beyond that I'm partially deferring to NFL decision makers, but I like Rudolph more than his draft spot and I'll rate Rosen & Allen worse than their draft spot. And I can see a case for Lauletta being in the early-round picture, although I haven't looked into him or other FCS quarterbacks in much detail.

My pre-draft TE rankings (previous rankings/discussion here):

Mike Gesicki

Dallas Goedert
Mark Andrews

Ian Thomas
Tyler Conklin
Jaylen Samuels
Jordan Akins
Hayden Hurst
Chris Herndon IV

Last year's top TEs would be mixed among this year's top 3: Engram, Gesicki, Njoku, Goedert, Everett, Howard, Andrews. Though I might be overrating Andrews since I use raw stats rather than team-adjusted stats. Hayden Hurst is highly regarded but his production hasn't been good; he had a grand total of 4 touchdowns over his entire college career.

 

[Dinsy Ejotuz]

I spent a ridiculous amount of time with the RB and TE data at NFLDS over the last month, and one of the things I was surprised to find was how accurate the FINAL rankings were for RBs in terms of actual draft order and position.

Royce Freeman has been bumped from 4/5 to 4 to 3/4 to 3 at NFLDS over the last couple weeks.  That suggests a draft position of 73-88, give or take.  That's a huge bump for his prospects compared to something like ~130.

Spoiler

Also, related... I think I cracked this.  Like more or less solved the framework for quant evaluation of players.  There are still holes in the data where it's too sparse to actually use the framework, but the framework itself seems rock solid.  You can do something relatively simple and conceptually elegant with the data that works for all three skill positions.  I sort of "knew" what was in there already, but it seemed like magic when I found the right stats tool to use and the results popped out.  Instead of looking at things that correlate with talent, I think this approach actually IDs the underlying biomechanical origins of talent.  Trying to figure out when/where/how to publish that.

 

[cloppbeast]

There is a theory that route running success is partially correlated with age and level of competition.

Cooper Kupp is quite the anomaly then. 

 

[Bojang0301]

Cooper Kupp is quite the anomaly then. 

My comment wasn’t meant to be insulting to older prospects but actually Kupp is an outlier to that thought process. Ridley and Pringle will be this year. It’s not something that would cause me to dismiss someone. Ridley I wanted to dismiss but I think he could be a good WR2 in the NFL. I think the early talk of him being a premier option at the NFL level is a little over the top though.

 

[Ilov80s]

Cooper Kupp is quite the anomaly then. 

How so? Kupp will be 25 before the start of his 2nd NFL season. He is old. Funchess for example will be turnig 24 this month and heading into his 4th season. Kupp looks good now, but I think when we look back in a couple years, Kupp won't be so highly thought of. I don't see him being much better than he was last year. 

 

[cloppbeast]

How so? Kupp will be 25 before the start of his 2nd NFL season. He is old. Funchess for example will be turnig 24 this month and heading into his 4th season. Kupp looks good now, but I think when we look back in a couple years, Kupp won't be so highly thought of. I don't see him being much better than he was last year. 

I agree. It's possible we've already seen close to Kupp's ceiling already.

 

[cloppbeast]

I am surprised to see Equanimeous St. Brown so high on this list.

Yeah, me too. But I've really come around on him since reading the article ZWK posted. For me, he has a good shot at bonafide WR1.

 

[ZWK]

Success Rate at getting open (from Harmon's data) does seem to predict draft position, even after controlling for my WR rating formula or Football Outsiders' Playmaker Score.

 

[ZWK]

Football Outsiders has their BackCAST RB ratings out, behind an ESPN paywall for now.

The gist: they see Saquon Barkley as a generational prospect, then after a sizeable gap there's a tier of solid prospects in Royce Freeman, Derrius Guice, Rashaad Penny, Nick Chubb, and Ronald Jones II. They aren't that high on anyone else, including Sony Michel & Kerryon Johnson.

This broadly matches up with what my formula is saying, except my formula is a bit higher on Chubb and a bit lower on Guice & Jones. I think my opinions on this batch of players are closer to their formula than to mine.

Now it's public. Their rankings (with my tier breaks and labels):

Wow:
Saquon Barkley    Penn State
    
Good:
Royce Freeman    Oregon
Derrius Guice    LSU
Rashaad Penny    San Diego State
Nick Chubb    Georgia
Ronald Jones    Southern California
Ryan Nall    Oregon State
    
Averageish / Above average:
Jarvion Franklin    Western Michigan
Josh Adams    Notre Dame
Sony Michel    Georgia
Justin Jackson    Northwestern
Jordan Wilkins    Ole Miss
Jeffrey Wilson    North Texas
    
Below average:
Chris Warren    Texas
Nyheim Hines    North Carolina State
Bo Scarbrough    Alabama
Kalen Ballage    Arizona State
Kerryon Johnson    Auburn
    
Bad:
Mark Walton    Miami
Justin Crawford    West Virginia
Akrum Wadley    Iowa
Demario Richard    Arizona State
John Kelly    Tennessee
Kamryn Pettway    Auburn
    
Nope:
Lavon Coleman    Washington
Darrel Williams    LSU
Kyle Hicks    TCU
Roc Thomas    Auburn

 

[foxco]

Nall seems pretty high on that list.

 

[Bojang0301]

Really like Jarvion Franklin every time I watch him. His athleticism isn’t strong and he’s a two down back which is like a relic in today’s NFL. Even so he had moments of great play, even catching the football. Here against Northern Illinois at the ~5:50 mark you can see him make a rather difficult catch and display toughness and balance. Could be a sneaky late round guy.

 

[gabes1919]

I agree. It's possible we've already seen close to Kupp's ceiling already.

That’s possible but I think it’s more likely that he improves. Last year was his first time consistently playing against high level competition. He had some warts but in college, he was not challenged in the same way. He is a player whose success based not on speed or physicality but on things like route running. Guys who are great route runners are all about the mastery of their craft and I think he will improve from last year.

That said, bringing Cooks to town probably killed his stats. There may be too many mouths in that offense now so while I see Kupp improving as a player, I think it will be more relevant in the NFL than in fantasy.

And I can’t look at him without thinking about the fact that Steve Smith Sr said Kupp would go down as the best wr in that class

 

[ZWK]

I was also surprised to see Ryan Nall that high in BackCAST. The main thing he has going for him is size, plus he got used in the receiving game. And his athleticism, while not good, was at least middle-of-the-pack. For example, he has Jarvion Franklin beat by 0.05 in the 40, 3" in the vertical, and 13" in the broad jump.

 

[Bojang0301]

Nall’s agility is 80th percentile. Pretty impressive at 234lbs. 

 

[ZWK]

To say a little more about why I'm down on Kerryon Johnson. First, a lack of big plays. He had a grand total of 14 20+ yard runs over the course of his career, when an average RB would've had about 24 of them. So, he was well below average at breaking off long runs, while most promising prospects are above average. Second, PFF has him below average yards after contact per attempt and average at missed tackles per attempt. Again, most good prospects are above average. Finally, there's the fact that he didn't beat out Kamryn Pettway, who is the same class year and a bad NFL prospect. In 2016 Pettway was Auburn's RB 1a to Johnson's 1b, and in 2017 Johnson took over the workhorse role by default with Pettway missing most of the season.

The main points in Johnson's favor are that he jumped really well at the combine and was effective in short yardage situations.

 

[ZWK]

My final by-formula pre-draft WR rankings (more details in the spreadsheet; post-combine rankings were here):

DJ Moore    Maryland
James Washington    Okla St   
Tre'Quan Smith    UCF
DJ Chark    LSU
Jordan Lasley    UCLA
Anthony Miller    Memphis
Courtland Sutton    SMU
Equanimeous St. Brown    Notre Dame
    
Cedrick Wilson    Boise St
Keke Coutee    Texas Tech
Marcell Ateman    Okla St
    
Darren Carrington II    Utah
Jester Weah    Pittsburgh
Michael Gallup    CSU
Byron Pringle    Kansas St

Not pictured: Christian Kirk, Dante Pettis, Deon Cain, Calvin Ridley, DaeSean Hamilton, and others

The guys in the top tier get a thumbs up from this system (with Moore & Washington standing out a bit above the others), though they still do have various warts (like Lasley's horrible drop rate). The guys in the second tier are borderline / worthy of midround consideration. I haven't included FCS receivers; possibly Daurice Fountain should be in there in the second or third tier. Obviously the views of NFL teams and other experts matter a lot, and if I was drafting today I would take Calvin Ridley ahead of Tre'Quan Smith even though these formulas say otherwise.

My formula incorporates some of Harmon's data on how often receivers got open and contested catch rate, although he doesn't have data yet on Tre'Quan Smith, Jordan Lasley, or most of the guys in my tiers 2-3.

The main changes since the combine have been Anthony Miller moving up to the top tier with a nice pro day and Equanimeous St. Brown moving up to the top tier thanks to his strong Reception Perception numbers.

 

[ZWK]

Here are the pre-draft generic rookie rankings (career ppr VBD) based on Arif Hasan's consensus draft board, taking into account only a player's position and his projected draft spot:

441    RB    Saquon Barkley
314    RB    Derrius Guice
192    WR    Calvin Ridley
185    RB    Sony Michel
180    RB    Ronald Jones II
155    RB    Nick Chubb
133    WR    Courtland Sutton
121    WR    D.J. Moore
114    QB    Josh Rosen
100    RB    Kerryon Johnson
99    QB    Sam Darnold
97    WR    Christian Kirk
97    RB    Rashaad Penny
91    QB    Baker Mayfield
91    RB    Royce Freeman
89    WR    James Washington
88    WR    Anthony Miller
84    RB    Nyheim Hines
81    WR    D.J. Chark
79    WR    Michael Gallup
78    WR    Dante Pettis
78    RB    Jaylen Samuels
77    TE    Dallas Goedert
71    QB    Lamar Jackson
71    WR    Equanimeous St. Brown
68    RB    Mark Walton
67    WR    Deon Cain
66    WR    DaeSean Hamilton
66    RB    John Kelly
64    TE    Mike Gesicki
60    QB    Josh Allen
58    TE    Hayden Hurst
57    RB    Kalen Ballage
51    TE    Mark Andrews
45    WR    Marcell Ateman
42    RB    Bo Scarbrough

 

[Slapdash]

Hayden Hurst is highly regarded but his production hasn't been good; he had a grand total of 4 touchdowns over his entire college career.

Somehow didn't realize it was that low,  Makes me hate Kurt Roper even more.

 

[Biabreakable]

To say a little more about why I'm down on Kerryon Johnson. First, a lack of big plays. He had a grand total of 14 20+ yard runs over the course of his career, when an average RB would've had about 24 of them. So, he was well below average at breaking off long runs, while most promising prospects are above average. Second, PFF has him below average yards after contact per attempt and average at missed tackles per attempt. Again, most good prospects are above average. Finally, there's the fact that he didn't beat out Kamryn Pettway, who is the same class year and a bad NFL prospect. In 2016 Pettway was Auburn's RB 1a to Johnson's 1b, and in 2017 Johnson took over the workhorse role by default with Pettway missing most of the season.

The main points in Johnson's favor are that he jumped really well at the combine and was effective in short yardage situations.

From what I have seen of Johnson he is very good in some areas very difficult to quantify, such as his patience, vision and pad level. He reminds me a bit of Jordan Howard, but you bring up some good points against him.

 

[cloppbeast]

From what I have seen of Johnson he is very good in some areas very difficult to quantify, such as his patience, vision and pad level. He reminds me a bit of Jordan Howard, but you bring up some good points against him.

Often indecisive. 

 

[Biabreakable]

Often indecisive. 

True. He does have some good burst though once he does make up his mind.

 

[ZWK]

Pretty good rd 1 showing by my guys, with Mayfield going #1, DJ Moore as the first receiver off the board, and Rashaad Penny as the first non-Barkley RB. On the other hand, plenty of not-my-guys went early too, with Joshes Allen & Rosen both top 10, Hurst as the top TE, and Ridley & Michel going shortly after Moore & Penny.

Generic rookie rankings for the first rounders:

429    RB    Saquon Barkley
232    RB    Rashaad Penny
207    RB    Sony Michel
161    WR    DJ Moore
156    QB    Baker Mayfield
153    WR    Calvin Ridley
131    TE    Hayden Hurst
119    QB    Sam Darnold
102    QB    Josh Allen
93    QB    Josh Rosen
54    QB    Lamar Jackson

2nd round RBs can still slot in ahead of Moore, 2nd round WRs can still slot in ahead of Darnold, and 2nd round TEs can still slot in ahead of Jackson.

 

[ZWK]

Generic rookie rankings through rd 3 (ppr, based on historical data, e.g. treating Mayfield only as "QB drafted with pick 1"):

429    RB    Saquon Barkley
232    RB    Rashaad Penny
207    RB    Sony Michel
185    RB    Nick Chubb
169    RB    Ronald Jones II
161    WR    DJ Moore
156    QB    Baker Mayfield
153    WR    Calvin Ridley
146    RB    Kerryon Johnson
131    TE    Hayden Hurst
119    QB    Sam Darnold
102    QB    Josh Allen
101    RB    Derrius Guice
100    WR    Courtland Sutton
93    QB    Josh Rosen
93    WR    Dante Pettis
93    RB    Royce Freeman
90    WR    Christian Kirk
87    WR    Anthony Miller
81    WR    James Washington
81    WR    DJ Chark
69    TE    Mike Gesicki
69    WR    Michael Gallup
61    WR    Tre'Quan Smith
60    TE    Dallas Goedert
54    QB    Lamar Jackson
42    TE    Mark Andrews
33    TE    Jordan Akins
10    QB    Mason Rudolph

4th round RBs can still slot in ahead of James Washington and 4th round WRs can still slot in ahead of Mark Andrews.

Skill position players have generally landed in reasonably good spots. Main exceptions are TE Dallas Goedert PHI (behind Ertz), WR James Washington PIT (behind AB & JJSS), and perhaps WR Anthony Miller CHI (behind ARob). I'm not too worried about others like Hurst & Andrews competing at TE in BAL (probably one of them will win a big passing game role and the other wouldn't have panned out anywhere) or Courtland Sutton in DEN (behind Thomas & Sanders for now, but probably at least one of them will be gone within a year or two).

 

[ConnSKINS26]

The QB's and Hurst are way too high imo, but its a good list otherwise imo. Gallup should be higher imo but if you take out the QB's and TE's its better. 

 

[ZWK]

And here are the complete generic rookie rankings for everyone drafted in the first 201 picks. The number is projected career VBD (ppr), it is generated by assuming that (for example) Rashaad Penny's production will be close to the historical average for an RB drafted around pick 27.

VBD   Pos   Player         Pick
429    RB    Saquon Barkley    2
232    RB    Rashaad Penny    27
207    RB    Sony Michel    31
185    RB    Nick Chubb    35
169    RB    Ronald Jones II    38
161    WR    D. J. Moore    24
156    QB    Baker Mayfield    1
153    WR    Calvin Ridley    26
146    RB    Kerryon Johnson    43
131    TE    Hayden Hurst    25
119    QB    Sam Darnold    3
102    QB    Josh Allen    7
101    RB    Derrius Guice    59
100    WR    Courtland Sutton    40
93    QB    Josh Rosen    10
93    WR    Dante Pettis    44
93    RB    Royce Freeman    71
90    WR    Christian Kirk    47
87    WR    Anthony Miller    51
81    WR    James Washington    60
81    WR    DJ Chark    61
81    RB    Nyheim Hines    104
73    RB    Mark Walton    112
69    TE    Mike Gesicki    42
69    WR    Michael Gallup    81
62    RB    Ito Smith    126
61    WR    Tre'Quan Smith    91
60    TE    Dallas Goedert    49
56    RB    Kalen Ballage    131
54    QB    Lamar Jackson    32
51    RB    Chase Edmonds    134
47    WR    Keke Coutee    103
45    WR    Antonio Callaway    105
42    TE    Mark Andrews    86
34    WR    DaeSean Hamilton    113
33    TE    Jordan Akins    98
31    TE    Ian Thomas    101
27    TE    Chris Herndon    107
22    RB    Jordan Wilkins    169
21    WR    Jaleel Scott    132
20    WR    J'Mon Moore    133
20    RB    John Kelly    176
18    TE    Will Dissly    120
17    TE    Durham Smythe    123
13    WR    Justin Watson    144
12    TE    Dalton Schultz    137
10    QB    Mason Rudolph    76
10    RB    Boston Scott    201
10    QB    Kyle Lauletta    108
8    QB    Mike White    171
6    TE    Troy Fumagalli    156
6    WR    Daurice Fountain    159
5    TE    Tyler Conklin    157
5    QB    Luke Falk    199
3    WR    Jordan Lasley    162
2    WR    Damion Ratley    175
2    WR    Deon Cain    185
2    WR    Ray-Ray McCloud    187
2    WR    Dylan Cantrell    191
2    WR    Russell Gage    194

 

[Concept Coop]

Are these based on 4 or 6 pt passing TDs? 

Thanks for sharing these.

 

[ZWK]

It's whatever PFR uses, which I think is 4 per passing TD.

 

[ZWK]

I've attempted to do something similar to my generic rookie rankings, but for veteran WRs. The aim was to get projected-by-formula remaining career VBD (ppr) for all WRs, although the process was a bit messy and wasn't purely by formula. Results are here in my dynasty rankings thread. DJ Moore is the highest-ranked rookie WR (obviously, since he was the first drafted) at dynasty WR15, followed by Calvin Ridley at WR16 and Courtland Sutton at WR32.

 

[ZWK]

My first pass attempt at post-draft rookie rankings (ppr, age of 9/1/18):

Pos  Player           Team       Age
RB    Saquon Barkley    NYG    21.6
RB    Rashaad Penny    SEA    22.6
RB    Nick Chubb    CLE    22.7
WR    D.J. Moore    CAR    21.4
RB    Sony Michel    NE    23.5
RB    Ronald Jones II    TB    21.1
RB    Derrius Guice    WAS    21.2
WR    Calvin Ridley    ATL    23.7
QB    Baker Mayfield    CLE    23.4
WR    Courtland Sutton    DEN    22.9
RB    Royce Freeman    DEN    22.5
QB    Sam Darnold    NYJ    21.2
WR    Anthony Miller    CHI    23.9
RB    Kerryon Johnson    DET    21.2
WR    Michael Gallup    DAL    22.5
WR    Tre’Quan Smith    NO    
WR    Christian Kirk    ARI    21.8
TE    Mike Gesicki    MIA    22.9
QB    Lamar Jackson    BAL    21.6
RB    Nyheim Hines    IND    21.8
WR    Dante Pettis    SF    22.9
WR    James Washington    PIT    22.4
WR    D.J. Chark    JAX    21.9
TE    Hayden Hurst    BAL    25.0
WR    Antonio Callaway    CLE    21.6
QB    Josh Rosen    ARI    21.6
QB    Josh Allen    BUF    22.3
WR    Keke Coutee    HOU    21.6
TE    Dallas Goedert    PHI    24.7
TE    Mark Andrews    BAL    22.0
WR    J'Mon Moore    GB    23.3
RB    Mark Walton    CIN    
WR    DaeSean Hamilton    DEN    23.5
RB    Jordan Wilkins    IND    24.1
WR    Daurice Fountain    IND    22.7
RB    Ito Smith    ATL    23.0
WR    Jordan Lasley    BAL    21.8
TE    Jordan Akins    HOU    26.4
WR    Deon Cain    IND    22.1
WR    Equanimeous St. Brown    GB    21.9
TE    Chris Herndon    NYJ    22.5
RB    Kalen Ballage    MIA    22.7
QB    Mason Rudolph    PIT    23.1
WR    Jaleel Scott    BAL    23.5
WR    Marcell Ateman    OAK    24.0
RB    Bo Scarbrough    DAL    21.9
WR    Marquez Valdes-Scantling    GB    
TE    Ian Thomas    CAR    22.2
WR    Cedrick Wilson    DAL    
QB    Kyle Lauletta    NYG    23.5
RB    Boston Scott    NO    23.3
WR    Justin Watson    TB    
TE    Will Dissly    SEA    
TE    Dalton Schultz    DAL    22.1
RB    John Kelly    RAM    21.9
RB    Chase Edmonds    ARI    22.4
TE    Durham Smythe    MIA    23.1

 

[lardonastick]

Great stuff as usual ZWK.

 

[Zyphros]

Position ranks I like the order of most of it, other than Guice at RB6, I don't like having Ridley and Sutton ahead of Freeman and Kerryon though.  Other than those nitpicky things it's a very solid list.  

 

[Spike]

Need to keep this up top. 

 

[ZWK]

I've posted my dynasty WR rankings in my other thread, and the RB rankings too; you can see where the rookies slot on as well as some discussion (e.g., on why DJ Moore vs. Corey Davis is a close call). TEs and QBs probably coming over the next few days.

I also had a bit to say about the rookie TEs in the rookie TE thread. It's basically in line with my rookie rankings which are a few posts up, but gives some more of the reasoning.

 

[Spike]

I've posted my dynasty WR rankings in my other thread, and the RB rankings too; you can see where the rookies slot on as well as some discussion (e.g., on why DJ Moore vs. Corey Davis is a close call). TEs and QBs probably coming over the next few days.

I also had a bit to say about the rookie TEs in the rookie TE thread. It's basically in line with my rookie rankings which are a few posts up, but gives some more of the reasoning.

Have you done a combined rookies ranking?

 

[Dezbelief]

Yes he has. Glance up.