ZWK's 2023 Prospect Analysis (1 Viewer)

[ZWK]

This thread is for my analysis of the 2023 draft class (and other college players). Previously threads: 2022 draft class, 2021, 2020, 2019, 2018, 2017, 2016, 2015, 2014, 2013 WR & RB.

Initial impressions, plus links to my spreadsheets:

RBs look great. Bijan Robinson is one of the best RB prospects since I've been doing this (currently thinking he belongs at #2 behind Barkley), there are a whole bunch of other good RBs by my formula led by Zach Charbonnet, DeWayne McBride, and Israel Abanikanda (pending weighins & athletic testing), and some promising receiving backs too. Currently not as high as consensus on Jahmyr Gibbs & Sean Tucker, and higher than consensus on the speedsters Keaton Mitchell & Devon Achane. It's going to take some work to sort out RBs 2-15.

WRs not so great. Most of the WRs who are projected as day 1-2 picks didn't produce that well, and many of the guys with the best seasons had down years in 2022 (JSN, Jordan Addison) or are tiny (Nathaniel Dell, Marvin Mims, Addison again). My formula's favorites are probably going to be Jalin Hyatt, Quentin Johnston, and those 4. I've been playing around with other ways of breaking down WR stats so we'll see where I end up; possibly someone like Zay Flowers or Josh Downs will end up with that group.

TE (no link yet) class strong at the top. Dalton Kincaid, Darnell Washington, and Michael Mayer all produced; Luke Musgrave briefly flashed production this year before getting injured. No one else has caught my eye yet, but haven't tried to be thorough yet.

QB - the top 2 (Young & Stroud) have high-end production, others not so much. When I watched some game cutups last offseason I liked what I saw from Young more than Stroud.

 

[BassNBrew]

 

[ZWK]

Here are a couple new WR stats I've been looking at.

First, career adjusted yards per target. This is receiving yards, plus a 5 yard bonus for each first down, plus a 15 yard bonus for each TD, per target. Probably a better reflection of how much a player has done with his targets than just YPT.

I've stuck each player's career YPT in parentheses; 13.5 adjYPT roughly corresponds to 10.0 YPT and is around the median for a rd1-3 WR over the past few years.

Career AYPT
17.72 Marvin Mims (13.54)
16.53 Jaxon Smith-Njigba (12.65)
15.56 Jalin Hyatt (11.72)
14.83 Puka Nacua (11.28)
14.35 Dalton Kincaid TE (10.03)
14.34 Darnell Washington TE (11.06)
14.04 Tyler Scott (10.54)
13.73 Quentin Johnston (10.84)
13.68 Cameron Latu TE (9.02)
13.66 Jordan Addison (10.10)
[13.50 typical rd1-3 WR (10.00)]
13.13 Cedric Tillman (9.71)
13.02 Nathaniel Dell (9.31)
12.96 Luke Schoonmaker TE (9.10)
12.84 Dontayvion Wicks (9.78)
12.66 Charlie Jones (9.32)
12.61 A.T. Perry (9.10)
12.61 Ronnie Bell (9.86)
12.59 Josh Downs (9.20)
12.31 Parker Washington (9.14)
12.13 Will Mallory TE (8.85)
12.07 Kayshon Boutte (8.92)
12.00 Zay Flowers (8.95)
11.98 Josh Whyle TE (8.09)
11.97 Jayden Reed (8.82)
11.87 Dontay Demus Jr. (9.15)
11.79 Rashee Rice (8.84)
11.71 Jalen Moreno-Cropper (8.67)
11.66 Michael Mayer TE (8.23)
11.61 Cade Stover TE (8.46)
11.32 Jonathan Mingo (8.60)
11.3 Rakim Jarrett (8.75)
11.24 Brevyn Spann-Ford TE (8.39)
11.21 Payne Durham TE (7.33)
11.08 Trey Palmer (8.48)
10.84 Xavier Hutchinson (8.19)
10.77 Jake Bobo (8.01)
10.75 Joseph Ngata (8.20)
10.69 Keytaon Thompson (8.25)
10.29 Luke Musgrave TE (7.91)
9.78 Sam LaPorta TE (7.47)

And here's career adjYards per Route Run; with this 3.3 adjYPRR and 2.5 YPRR are typical career numbers for a rd1-3 WR.

Career AYPRR
4.53 Puka Nacua (3.45)
4.34 Jaxon Smith-Njigba (3.32)
3.86 Marvin Mims (2.95)
3.57 Jordan Addison (2.64)
3.44 Nathaniel Dell (2.46)
3.43 Quentin Johnston (2.71)
3.43 Josh Downs (2.50)
3.38 A.T. Perry (2.44)
3.31 Xavier Hutchinson (2.50)
[3.30 typical rd1-3 WR (2.50)]
3.24 Jalin Hyatt (2.44)
3.17 Dalton Kincaid TE (2.22)
3.14 Dontayvion Wicks (2.39)
3.14 Jalen Moreno-Cropper (2.32)
3.12 Rashee Rice (2.34)
3.11 Ronnie Bell (2.43)
3.02 Charlie Jones (2.22)
2.96 Jayden Reed (2.18)
2.94 Zay Flowers (2.19)
2.87 Keytaon Thompson (2.22)
2.86 Trey Palmer (2.19)
2.83 Cedric Tillman (2.10)
2.83 Tyler Scott (2.12)
2.76 Michael Mayer TE (1.95)
2.69 Kayshon Boutte (1.99)
2.59 Rakim Jarrett (2.01)
2.57 Parker Washington (1.91)
2.50 Brevyn Spann-Ford TE (1.87)
2.50 Dontay Demus Jr. (1.92)
2.47 Sam LaPorta TE (1.88)
2.39 Josh Whyle TE (1.62)
2.35 Jake Bobo (1.74)
2.31 Luke Schoonmaker TE (1.63)
2.20 Joseph Ngata (1.68)
2.08 Darnell Washington TE (1.60)
1.94 Jonathan Mingo (1.48)
1.87 Payne Durham TE (1.22)
1.85 Will Mallory TE (1.35)
1.80 Luke Musgrave TE (1.38)
1.75 Cameron Latu TE (1.16)
1.75 Cade Stover TE (1.28)

I've included TEs in these lists, partly to give Dalton Kincaid a chance to show off. His yardage hasn't been as good as the WRs around him, but he's been a first down machine.

The players that do well on these lists overlap fairly well with the ones who do well by the formula that I've been using for years, which mainly looks at a player's best season & his last season. So they mostly match the guys I mentioned in my intro post (JSN, Mims, Addison, etc.). Puka Nacua another guy that does well in these lists.

Data from PFF. These stats do correlate with both draft position and with NFL production for class of 2016-22 WRs, better than some other career stats I've looked at (like raw YPRR or ypg). But not sure that career stats are better than other ways of carving things up; probably should adjust for things like early declares (staying in school longer makes it easier to have better career averages).

 

[joey]

black freakin dot! love your work, ZWK

 

[Boone22]

Bumpity bump. Love this every year.

 

[higgins]

 

[ZWK]

RB elusiveness (feel free to skip the text and just look down at the lists of players)

A major part of how I evaluate RBs is looking at who is hard to tackle. When I started doing this, there wasn't much publicly available information on yards after contact or missed tackles, so I would watch game cutups of Ka'Deem Carey, Jay Ajayi, etc. and chart them myself. Now I just check PFF, which has data on YAC & MT for every college season since 2014.

This offseason I've been crunching through their data, more systematically than I have before, and have rejiggered my elusiveness rating a bit. This basic idea is to give each RB a YAC rating based on his yards after contact per attempt, and missed/broken tackles rating based on MT/att, and combine those into a single rating which is weighted slightly more towards YAC (it's based 60% on YAC/att and 40% on MT/att). (PFF has their own "elusiveness rating" which I don't use; they get it by combining their YAC & MT data in some other way.)

Adjusting for number of attempts: Great YAC/att on 600 attempts is more impressive than the exact same YAC/att number on 250 attempts, and more likely to reflect ability rather than just how a few carries happened to go, so I adjust for that. Basically, in addition to his actual rushing attempts, I count each RB as having 200 additional pseudo-attempts with mediocre YAC, and then I calculate his YAC/att including these pseudo-attempts plus his actual attempts. This sounds pretty ad hoc, and parts of it are, but there's actually some fancy math saying that this is a good way to do this adjustment (it's part of Bayesian statistics).

Era adjustment: YAC/att and MT/att have both gone up meaningfully, even just during the brief PFF era from 2014 to 2022. In 2014 RBs (in the subsample I looked at) averaged 2.8 YAC/att and 0.17 MT/att, in 2022 it was 3.1 YAC/att and 0.23 MT/att. So I have era adjustments for each season, so that if a 2022 RB season had identical YAC & MT stats to a 2014 season, it would have a worse YAC rating & MT rating, because it is not as good compared to what other RBs are doing these days. I'm not sure why YAC & MT numbers have gone up over time; my best guess is that it's due to improved offensive scheme which gives RBs better opportunities to beat defenders (fewer carries crashing into a pile of bodies at the line, more that set up a one-on-one against a defender in space).

No strength of schedule adjustment: It's easier to get good YAC & MT against bad defenses. For now I don't have any strength of schedule adjustment for this. My overall RB ratings do have a SOS adjustment, but I haven't gone in to do that for just the elusiveness numbers. Worth keeping in mind for small school backs with good numbers.

No age adjustment: Do RBs improve at YAC & MT over the course of their college career? As far as I can tell, they basically don't. Or if there's a change it's tiny. So I'm just looking at career stats (or as much of their career as I have data for, missing all pre-2014 data and anything that hasn't happened yet).

On to the data. Here are the top 20 hardest to tackle college RBs of the PFF era, 2014-2022, by my numbers.

Top 20 Elusiveness (2014-2022)
DeWayne McBride (#6 at MT, #2 at YAC)
Darrell Henderson (#83 at MT, #1 at YAC)
Bijan Robinson (#2 at MT, #7 at YAC)
Travis Etienne (#8 at MT, #3 at YAC)
Trey Ragas (#15 at MT, #5 at YAC)
Javonte Williams (#3 at MT, #19 at YAC)
Tyjae Spears (#34 at MT, #4 at YAC)
Miyan Williams (#5 at MT, #24 at YAC)
Kenneth Walker III (#13 at MT, #12 at YAC)
Trey Benson (#1 at MT, #47 at YAC)
Rashaad Penny (#40 at MT, #8 at YAC)
Bryce Love (#25 at MT, #15 at YAC)
Devin Singletary (#16 at MT, #17 at YAC)
Dalvin Cook (#28 at MT, #16 at YAC)
Kennedy Brooks (#19 at MT, #20 at YAC)
Tyler Allgeier (#69 at MT, #9 at YAC)
Jonathan Taylor (#119 at MT, #6 at YAC)
Darwin Thompson (#53 at MT, #14 at YAC)
Kareem Hunt (#24 at MT, #23 at YAC)
Roschon Johnson (#11 at MT, #40 at YAC)

Four guys in this class make the top 20, including 2 in the top 3, with DeWayne McBride beating out Darrell Henderson and Bijan Robinson coming in right after Henderson. McBride & Henderson both got to take advantage of weaker competition; so did several others including Tyjae Spears (#7). Henderson also had one of the biggest mismatches between YAC & MT, along with Jonathan Taylor. Robinson's teammate Roschon Johnson also just makes the top 20; so do Miyan Williams & Trey Benson who are still in school.

What about the rest of this draft class? Here's their percentile ranking on this elusiveness stat, compared to FBS RBs who have been drafted in the top 150 picks:

100th DeWayne McBride
99th Bijan Robinson
97th Tyjae Spears
91st Roschon Johnson
90th Chris Rodriguez Jr.
82nd Kendre Miller
80th Devon Achane
79th Zach Evans
77th Tank Bigsby
69th Zach Charbonnet
66th Jahmyr Gibbs
59th Kenny McIntosh
59th Christopher Brooks
57th Keaton Mitchell
55th Sean Tucker
[50th = median RB drafted in the top 150 picks]
40th Evan Hull
38th Chase Brown
36th Mohamed Ibrahim
35th Eric Gray
28th Tiyon Evans
22nd Travis Dye
19th Israel Abanikanda
12th Khalan Laborn
5th Lew Nichols III
3rd Deuce Vaughn

 

[ZWK]

Rushing Yards Over Expected (RYOE) is pretty strongly correlated with yards after contact, though there are a few mismatches.

Jerrick Backous's version of RYOE for college players is also extreme high on DeWayne McBride & Tyjae Spears, and pretty high on Robinson, Miller, Achane, and Evans. It's a lot lower on Roschon Johnson & Jahmyr Gibbs, though, and it has Israel Abanikanda as above average.

 

[ZWK]

Here are my RB speed tiers:

Devon Achane
Keaton Mitchell
Jahmyr Gibbs

Deuce Vaughn
Sean Tucker
Israel Abanikanda
Kendre Miller

Bijan Robinson
Chase Brown
Tyjae Spears
Zach Charbonnet

Tiyon Evans
Tank Bigsby
Roschon Johnson
Kenny McIntosh
Zach Evans
DeWayne McBride

I'm projecting the guys in the top tier to run 4.3something, the second tier to run 4.4something, the third tier to run 4.5ish, and the last tier to run 4.5something. Ranking within a tier is mostly not that meaningful, except within the first tier.

Guys not listed I haven't evaluated yet.


On the methods:

Three main inputs that I'm using for these are:
* projected 40 times from draftscout & riseNdraft
* on-field mph, mostly from Reel Analytics and my own charting
* track times

I've gotten into the frame-by-frame game of estimating on-field speeds by counting frames & yard-lines; results here. Video of college football games is generally 30 frames per second, so I can use some software that shows the frame number to see (for example) that Israel Abanikanda reached the 25 yard line 2.4 seconds after the 50 yard line in this video (at 2:05-2:08, frames 3775 and 3847), which implies a speed of 21.31 mph (25 yards in 2.4 seconds, converted to miles per hour). You could potentially adjust that slightly faster because he ran at a bit of an angle, or slightly slower out of conservatism (concern that any slight error in identifying the right frame will make a player's max speed higher) - I do both. Fusue has been doing this for years; I just dipped my toes in last year and am doing it seriously for the first time with this RB group.

Reel Analytics (formerly "Recruiting Analytics") has been estimating players' on-field speed from videos for a few years. IMO their numbers are mostly pretty good but sometimes a little sketchy, and they're missing some fast plays (like Kendre Miller here). That's why I do my own charting too, rather than just going by their numbers. You can tell something about which of their speeds are more reliable just from their videos (which have an mph overlay) - if they show a player reaching his max speed only very briefly (like here or here) I find that a sketchier estimate of player speed than if the player stays near his max speed for 10+ yards (like here).

Until the combine, my RB ratings are going to use these speed rankings for their predicted 40 times. In the past I've mainly just gone by draftscout projections, and done a little bit of tinkering with other things (mainly track times). I also still might tinker with this ranking a bit, e.g. if I watch more game cut-ups and get different impressions of guys' speed (like last year, with Breece Hall & Kyren Williams).

I'll try to post a final pre-combine ranking so we can see how my work panned out. I don't expect to be perfect but I'm hoping to be more accurate than just relying on any one of my inputs (Draftscout, RiseNDraft, or Reel Analytics). Depending on how that goes, next year I might stop doing this or I might double down and do more of this.


On the players:

Devon Achane has legit track speed. I have his wind-adjusted PR as 10.20 in the 100m, which corresponds to a 4.34 forty. Achane, Keaton Mitchell, and Jahmyr Gibbs are the 3 guys who RA has going over 22 mph. Mitchell they have doing it 3 times. My charting has Gibbs, Mitchell, and Mitchell again with the 3 fastest on-field speeds, all above 21.6 mph (I consistently estimate slower speeds than RA, because of differences in methodology). So that's an easy top tier, and an easy ranking between them, IMO.

Sean Tucker the other guy with track numbers that I've seen. His PR is a 10.77 100m (wind unspecified), which I translate to about a 4.46. He has also run some other distances which I'm not as familiar with; on first glance his other times are in the same ballpark.

Roschon Johnson, Kenny McIntosh, Kendre Miller, and Tucker are the 4 guys where I see the most disagreement between sources. Draftscout has all 4 as fast (4.42 or faster), RiseNDraft has all 4 as averageish/slowish (4.50-4.58), and RA doesn't have on-field times for any of them as far as I can tell (which suggests they're slowish, since they didn't reach any leaderboards). Fusue estimated fast times for Miller & Tucker, and my frame counting backs that up, and Tucker has the track numbers. I can't find anything remotely fast from Roschon Johnson or McIntosh on their highlight videos - neither cracked 20 mph that I see. Roschon Johnson made Feldman's Freaks List, with reports that he clocked in at 22.6 mph on the gps over the offseason, but I didn't see him get anywhere close to that in games. So I'm sticking my neck out and going with my frame-counting in having Tucker & Miller 2 tiers ahead of Johnson & McIntosh.

 

[eighsse2]

Here are my RB speed tiers:

Devon Achane
Keaton Mitchell
Jahmyr Gibbs

Deuce Vaughn
Sean Tucker
Israel Abanikanda
Kendre Miller

Bijan Robinson
Chase Brown
Tyjae Spears
Zach Charbonnet

Tiyon Evans
Tank Bigsby
Roschon Johnson
Kenny McIntosh
Zach Evans
DeWayne McBride

I'm projecting the guys in the top tier to run 4.3something, the second tier to run 4.4something, the third tier to run 4.5ish, and the last tier to run 4.5something. Ranking within a tier is mostly not that meaningful, except within the first tier.

Guys not listed I haven't evaluated yet.


On the methods:

Three main inputs that I'm using for these are:
* projected 40 times from draftscout & riseNdraft
* on-field mph, mostly from Reel Analytics and my own charting
* track times

I've gotten into the frame-by-frame game of estimating on-field speeds by counting frames & yard-lines; results here. Video of college football games is generally 30 frames per second, so I can use some software that shows the frame number to see (for example) that Israel Abanikanda reached the 25 yard line 2.4 seconds after the 50 yard line in this video (at 2:05-2:08, frames 3775 and 3847), which implies a speed of 21.31 mph (25 yards in 2.4 seconds, converted to miles per hour). You could potentially adjust that slightly faster because he ran at a bit of an angle, or slightly slower out of conservatism (concern that any slight error in identifying the right frame will make a player's max speed higher) - I do both. Fusue has been doing this for years; I just dipped my toes in last year and am doing it seriously for the first time with this RB group.

Reel Analytics (formerly "Recruiting Analytics") has been estimating players' on-field speed from videos for a few years. IMO their numbers are mostly pretty good but sometimes a little sketchy, and they're missing some fast plays (like Kendre Miller here). That's why I do my own charting too, rather than just going by their numbers. You can tell something about which of their speeds are more reliable just from their videos (which have an mph overlay) - if they show a player reaching his max speed only very briefly (like here or here) I find that a sketchier estimate of player speed than if the player stays near his max speed for 10+ yards (like here).

Until the combine, my RB ratings are going to use these speed rankings for their predicted 40 times. In the past I've mainly just gone by draftscout projections, and done a little bit of tinkering with other things (mainly track times). I also still might tinker with this ranking a bit, e.g. if I watch more game cut-ups and get different impressions of guys' speed (like last year, with Breece Hall & Kyren Williams).

I'll try to post a final pre-combine ranking so we can see how my work panned out. I don't expect to be perfect but I'm hoping to be more accurate than just relying on any one of my inputs (Draftscout, RiseNDraft, or Reel Analytics). Depending on how that goes, next year I might stop doing this or I might double down and do more of this.


On the players:

Devon Achane has legit track speed. I have his wind-adjusted PR as 10.20 in the 100m, which corresponds to a 4.34 forty. Achane, Keaton Mitchell, and Jahmyr Gibbs are the 3 guys who RA has going over 22 mph. Mitchell they have doing it 3 times. My charting has Gibbs, Mitchell, and Mitchell again with the 3 fastest on-field speeds, all above 21.6 mph (I consistently estimate slower speeds than RA, because of differences in methodology). So that's an easy top tier, and an easy ranking between them, IMO.

Sean Tucker the other guy with track numbers that I've seen. His PR is a 10.77 100m (wind unspecified), which I translate to about a 4.46. He has also run some other distances which I'm not as familiar with; on first glance his other times are in the same ballpark.

Roschon Johnson, Kenny McIntosh, Kendre Miller, and Tucker are the 4 guys where I see the most disagreement between sources. Draftscout has all 4 as fast (4.42 or faster), RiseNDraft has all 4 as averageish/slowish (4.50-4.58), and RA doesn't have on-field times for any of them as far as I can tell (which suggests they're slowish, since they didn't reach any leaderboards). Fusue estimated fast times for Miller & Tucker, and my frame counting backs that up, and Tucker has the track numbers. I can't find anything remotely fast from Roschon Johnson or McIntosh on their highlight videos - neither cracked 20 mph that I see. Roschon Johnson made Feldman's Freaks List, with reports that he clocked in at 22.6 mph on the gps over the offseason, but I didn't see him get anywhere close to that in games. So I'm sticking my neck out and going with my frame-counting in having Tucker & Miller 2 tiers ahead of Johnson & McIntosh.

Wow, dude, great stuff. Two thumbs and two big toes up. I don't think I apply this much effort into everything I do in life combined.

 

[bostonfred]

Wow, dude, great stuff. Two thumbs and two big toes up. I don't think I apply this much effort into everything I do in life combined.

Give yourself credit. You do a great job describing your general lack of effort

 

[ZWK]

I hadn't actually run my TE formula on this year's class when I made the initial post in this thread, and now that I have I see that things come out slightly differently. Based on production & estimate athleticism (projected 40 times & size), the top 2 tiers are:

Dalton Kincaid
Michael Mayer
Luke Musgrave

Sam LaPorta
Darnell Washington

This isn't accounting for age/experience - Mayer & Washington are juniors, Musgrave & LaPorta are seniors, and Kincaid is a 5th year senior. I would take the juniors at the top of their tiers.

Kincaid & Mayer both have strong profiles, with good 2021 & 2022 production and good athleticism (projected to run in the low to mid 4.6s). They're in the same ballpark as last year's top tier (Trey McBride, Greg Dulcich, Jelani Woods, Charlie Kolar), pending workout numbers.

Musgrave is the best athlete of the bunch, projected to run in the mid 4.5s, and he ran a 11.25 100m in high school which matches that projection. My formula rates him as having above average, but not amazing, production solely on the basis of his 2 games this season before his injury. Which seems pretty reasonable, I think - it is just 2 games, but (e.g.) Darnell Washington's career high game is 78 receiving yards, and Musgrave outgained that twice this season, with 89 yards in his first game of the year and 80 in his second and final game. If I didn't let my formula do that and forced it to go by Musgrave's final 2 seasons of production, it would still have Musgrave third, but down a tier.

My formula gives Washington some credit for being huge, but it's not worth that much. So his size+athleticism rating comes in behind Musgrave, and just ahead of Mayer. He's had good efficiency stats (e.g. YPT), but not much volume, so his overall production profile isn't that great either. That leaves him a tier behind the top trio, and neck-and-neck with LaPorta. LaPorta has been Iowa's leading receiver each of the past 2 seasons, by a wide margin, though his raw stats aren't as good as his team-adjusted stats and he is projected with average speed. Washington being a junior should put him ahead of LaPorta, and I can see a case for putting him closer to the top tier (e.g. maybe his receiving volume would've taken a step up next season - that often happens with senior TEs - but he didn't need to stick around and show it on the field because enough NFL people already see signs of it).

I have only run the numbers on a couple other TEs (Payne Durham & Luke Schoonmaker both come in as below average prospects, so some other guys might enter the picture once I do more.

 

[Riddick02]

 

[ZWK]

Pre-combine, my RB formula has this ranking:


Bijan Robinson

Israel Abanikanda, DeWayne McBride, Kendre Miller, Zach Charbonnet, Devon Achane

Tyjae Spears, Keaton Mitchell, Sean Tucker, Tank Bigsby, Eric Gray, Zach Evans, Jahmyr Gibbs

Travis Dye, Evan Hull, Christopher Brooks, Chase Brown, Roschon Johnson, Toa Taua, Chris Rodriguez Jr.


These tiers roughly correspond to my standard tier breaks, "Guys I Like A Lot", "Guys I Like", "Guys Who Have A Decent Chance", and "Guys I Can't Rule Out", although it's a bit fuzzy doing that pre-combine.

Guys who didn't make the cut include Kenny McIntosh, Deuce Vaughn, Mohamed Ibrahim, and Lew Nichols III.

First impression is that my formula is probably underrating receiving. Gibbs, McIntosh, and Vaughn should be higher, and someone like McBride (who has 29 career receiving yards) should probably be lower. I decided on the rushing/receiving balance for my formula years ago, in a somewhat ad hoc way, and it seems off here. I've sometimes done separate analyses of receiving backs, or subjective adjustments, but it might be about time to go back & tinker with my main formula.

I've started watching some game cutups of some of the top guys here. I like what I see from Kendre Miller & Zach Charbonnet more than Israel Abanikanda. Abanikanda has a great size-speed combo - he's one of the top contenders for best speed score in this class - but he mainly just wins with speed. My formula loves that, along with his rushing production. But Miller & Charbonnet have more complete skillsets, with better power, balance, and shiftiness.

 

[Ilov80s]

Love the ranks and even more appreciate the honestly in self analysis.

 

[rockaction]

Yeah, I haven't commented in here but just wanted to say that these rankings and explanations are indeed something I've come to look forward to over the years.

 

[ZWK]

Here are some RB receiving stats. For comparison, I included 10 RBs who have been heavily involved as receivers in the NFL. Data from PFF, covering the 2014-22 FBS college seasons (so it's missing Aaron Jones's freshman season).

Most receiving yards in a season
647 Christian McCaffrey (46 ypg)
611 Saquon Barkley (47 ypg)
538 Joe Mixon (45 ypg)
536 Evan Hull (45 ypg)
536 Tony Pollard (41 ypg)
525 Nyheim Hines (44 ypg)
509 Kenny McIntosh (34 ypg)
478 Dalvin Cook (37 ypg)
470 Jahmyr Gibbs (39 ypg)
468 Deuce Vaughn (36 ypg)
398 Travis Dye (28 ypg)
390 Alvin Kamara (35 ypg)
320 Zach Charbonnet (32 ypg)
320 Lew Nichols III (25 ypg)
314 Bijan Robinson (26 ypg)
300 Toa Taua (25 ypg)
297 D'Andre Swift (21 ypg)
293 Aaron Jones (24 ypg)
289 Xazavian Valladay (24 ypg)
262 Eric Gray (29 ypg)
262 Sean Tucker (22 ypg)
261 Devon Achane (22 ypg)
254 Keaton Mitchell (21 ypg)
252 Leonard Fournette (21 ypg)
246 Tyjae Spears (18 ypg)
234 Chase Brown (20 ypg)
197 Israel Abanikanda (15 ypg)
180 Tank Bigsby (14 ypg)
166 Christopher Brooks (13 ypg)
158 Roschon Johnson (12 ypg)
152 SaRodorick Thompson (13 ypg)
130 Zach Evans (22 ypg)
117 Kendre Miller (12 ypg)
84 Deneric Prince (11 ypg)
77 Tiyon Evans (11 ypg)
61 Chris Rodriguez Jr. (5 ypg)
53 Mohamed Ibrahim (8 ypg)
38 Camerun Peoples (4 ypg)
19 DeWayne McBride (2 ypg)

Most career receiving yards on targets past the line of scrimmage
987 Deuce Vaughn (26.7 ypg)
871 Tony Pollard (21.8 ypg)
832 Christian McCaffrey (21.9 ypg)
741 Toa Taua (12.6 ypg)
708 Saquon Barkley (18.6 ypg)
698 Nyheim Hines (18.4 ypg)
690 Jahmyr Gibbs (22.3 ypg)
667 Xazavian Valladay (13.1 ypg)
574 Joe Mixon (23 ypg)
574 Travis Dye (9.9 ypg)
538 Evan Hull (15.8 ypg)
521 Eric Gray (11.1 ypg)
514 Dalvin Cook (13.9 ypg)
461 Bijan Robinson (14.9 ypg)
435 Chase Brown (10.1 ypg)
423 Kenny McIntosh (10.6 ypg)
379 D'Andre Swift (8.8 ypg)
374 Aaron Jones (14.4 ypg)
348 Devon Achane (11.6 ypg)
300 Lew Nichols III (9.7 ypg)
298 Tyjae Spears (9.3 ypg)
288 Alvin Kamara (12 ypg)
277 Zach Charbonnet (6.9 ypg)
263 Christopher Brooks (5.4 ypg)
251 Sean Tucker (7.6 ypg)
238 Leonard Fournette (7.4 ypg)
236 Israel Abanikanda (7.9 ypg)
227 Roschon Johnson (4.8 ypg)
218 Keaton Mitchell (6.6 ypg)
148 SaRodorick Thompson (3 ypg)
127 Tank Bigsby (3.6 ypg)
118 Zach Evans (4.4 ypg)
112 Mohamed Ibrahim (2.7 ypg)
92 Deneric Prince (3.5 ypg)
88 Kendre Miller (2.7 ypg)
54 Camerun Peoples (1.7 ypg)
34 Chris Rodriguez Jr. (0.8 ypg)
23 Tiyon Evans (1.5 ypg)
16 DeWayne McBride (0.7 ypg)

Most career receiving yards on targets 10+ yards downfield
521 Tony Pollard (13 ypg)
378 Saquon Barkley (9.9 ypg)
369 Joe Mixon (14.8 ypg)
296 Nyheim Hines (7.8 ypg)
254 Christian McCaffrey (6.7 ypg)
240 Xazavian Valladay (4.7 ypg)
238 Kenny McIntosh (6 ypg)
235 Deuce Vaughn (6.4 ypg)
204 Travis Dye (3.5 ypg)
202 Bijan Robinson (6.5 ypg)
188 Aaron Jones (7.2 ypg)
166 Devon Achane (5.5 ypg)
153 Dalvin Cook (4.1 ypg)
125 Toa Taua (2.1 ypg)
105 Chase Brown (2.4 ypg)
103 Leonard Fournette (3.2 ypg)
97 Tyjae Spears (3 ypg)
86 D'Andre Swift (2 ypg)
84 Jahmyr Gibbs (2.7 ypg)
70 Christopher Brooks (1.4 ypg)
65 Eric Gray (1.4 ypg)
50 Evan Hull (1.5 ypg)
40 Roschon Johnson (0.9 ypg)
27 Sean Tucker (0.8 ypg)
26 Keaton Mitchell (0.8 ypg)
23 Zach Evans (0.9 ypg)
19 Alvin Kamara (0.8 ypg)
0 Lew Nichols III (0 ypg)
0 Zach Charbonnet (0 ypg)
0 Israel Abanikanda (0 ypg)
0 SaRodorick Thompson (0 ypg)
0 Tank Bigsby (0 ypg)
0 Mohamed Ibrahim (0 ypg)
0 Deneric Prince (0 ypg)
0 Kendre Miller (0 ypg)
0 Camerun Peoples (0 ypg)
0 Chris Rodriguez Jr. (0 ypg)
0 Tiyon Evans (0 ypg)
0 DeWayne McBride (0 ypg)

If I turn this into an overall receiving rating by giving equal weight to each of these stats (equally divided between the total & per game version of them), I get this ranking:
1.6 Tony Pollard
1.5 Joe Mixon
1.4 Saquon Barkley
1.4 Christian McCaffrey
1.3 Deuce Vaughn
1.2 Nyheim Hines
0.9 Jahmyr Gibbs
0.8 Kenny McIntosh
0.7 Dalvin Cook
0.7 Evan Hull
0.6 Bijan Robinson
0.6 Xazavian Valladay
0.6 Travis Dye
0.5 Aaron Jones
0.4 Toa Taua
0.3 Devon Achane
0.2 Eric Gray
0.1 Alvin Kamara
0.1 Chase Brown
0.1 D'Andre Swift
0.0 Tyjae Spears
-0.0 Leonard Fournette
-0.2 Sean Tucker
-0.3 Keaton Mitchell
-0.3 Lew Nichols III
-0.3 Zach Charbonnet
-0.4 Christopher Brooks
-0.6 Roschon Johnson
-0.6 Zach Evans
-0.7 Israel Abanikanda
-0.9 Tank Bigsby
-1.0 SaRodorick Thompson
-1.1 Kendre Miller
-1.1 Deneric Prince
-1.3 Mohamed Ibrahim
-1.4 Tiyon Evans
-1.5 Camerun Peoples
-1.5 Chris Rodriguez Jr.
-1.8 DeWayne McBride

That's great for Deuce Vaughn, good for Gibbs, McIntosh, Hull, Bijan Robinson, Valladay, and Dye, and okay for Taua, Achane, Gray, Chase Brown, and Spears.

I guess Pollard played some WR in college; I'd forgotten about that & probably shouldn't have included him here.

 

[Ilov80s]

Interesting, where did you get the RB receiving yards for past LOS and 10+ yards down field?

 

[ZWK]

PFF has that in their signature stats.

 

[ZWK]

Here's a ranking of the top 2 most productive seasons by 10 QBs in this draft class, and 14 QBs who have had some success in the NFL. These are ranked by my era-adjusted production stat, and each QB's best season is in bold. (Anthony Richardson, Kyler Murray, and Matthew Stafford each only have 1 season on this list, because Richardson & Murray each only started 1 season and my dataset doesn't go back as far as Stafford's earlier seasons.)

Kyler Murray 2018
Russell Wilson 2011
Joe Burrow 2019
C.J. Stroud 2021
Jalen Hurts 2019
C.J. Stroud 2022
Matthew Stafford 2008
Stetson Bennett 2022
Stetson Bennett 2021
Bryce Young 2022
Trevor Lawrence 2020
Bryce Young 2021
Hendon Hooker 2022
Trevor Lawrence 2019
Aidan O'Connell 2021
Ryan Tannehill 2010
Deshaun Watson 2016
Patrick Mahomes II 2016
Lamar Jackson 2017
Hendon Hooker 2021
Dak Prescott 2014
Deshaun Watson 2015
Russell Wilson 2009
Ryan Tannehill 2011
Jalen Hurts 2017
Dak Prescott 2015
Kirk Cousins 2010
Kirk Cousins 2009
Lamar Jackson 2016
Patrick Mahomes II 2015
Justin Herbert 2019
Jaren Hall 2021
Will Levis 2022
Jaren Hall 2022
Will Levis 2021
Josh Allen 2016
Anthony Richardson 2022
Justin Herbert 2016
Joe Burrow 2018
Jake Haener 2022
Jake Haener 2021
Aidan O'Connell 2022
Tanner McKee 2021
Tanner McKee 2022
Josh Allen 2017

CJ Stroud, Stetson Bennett, Bryce Young, Hendon Hooker, and Aidan O'Connell have college production that's within the range of what we regularly see from successful NFL quarterbacks - Stroud near the high end of that range down to O'Connell more in the middle. All but O'Connell have had multiple similar years, unlike last year's class which had more one-year wonders.

Jaren Hall, Will Levis, and Anthony Richardson have production near the low-end of what we see from successful NFL quarterbacks - toolsy guys like Herbert & Josh Allen who panned out. Jake Haener & Tanner McKee are below even that level.

NFL teams do a pretty good job of not letting good NFL QBs fall in the draft (with occasional exceptions like Russell Wilson falling to rd3), so this is most relevant for looking at the likely early picks. Among the likely 1st rounders, this matches what we already knew - Stroud & Young had great production, Levis & Richardson did not - and is one way to put some context on that.

 

[ZWK]

One more RB receiving stat: number of missed tackles forced per reception.

This is a career stat, using PFF data (2014-22). I've italicized the NFL players, bolded the players in this class with pretty good receiving volume stats, and put an * by the guys with less than 40 total receptions (since that makes this sort of rate stat less meaningful).

0.63 Tyjae Spears
0.55 Tiyon Evans*
0.52 Kendre Miller*
0.49 Alvin Kamara
0.45 Israel Abanikanda*
0.43 Kenny McIntosh
0.42 Christian McCaffrey
0.40 Leonard Fournette
0.39 Keaton Mitchell
0.38 Jahmyr Gibbs
0.35 Deneric Prince*
0.35 Chris Rodriguez Jr.*
0.33 Bijan Robinson
0.33 Christopher Brooks
0.30 Zach Evans*
0.30 Camerun Peoples*
0.30 Zach Charbonnet
0.29 Dalvin Cook
0.29 Mohamed Ibrahim*
0.28 Saquon Barkley
0.28 Toa Taua
0.28 Nyheim Hines
0.28 Eric Gray
0.27 Evan Hull
0.27 Roschon Johnson
0.26 D'Andre Swift
0.26 Chase Brown
0.26 SaRodorick Thompson
0.25 Aaron Jones
0.25 Joe Mixon
0.24 Tony Pollard
0.23 Deuce Vaughn
0.23 Tank Bigsby
0.22 Xazavian Valladay
0.22 Devon Achane
0.20 DeWayne McBride*
0.14 Lew Nichols III
0.13 Travis Dye
0.13 Sean Tucker

0.25 is averageish for a college RB. So plenty of good NFL receiving backs were averageish or just slightly above average, but none were notably below average. I'd expect this stat to depend partly on usage: it's probably easier to get a missed tackle on underneath or behind-the-line-of-scrimmage throws which are designed to get the ball to a playmaker one-on-one in space, and harder to force a missed tackle on more receiver-type routes down the field (which is maybe why Pollard is last here among the NFL backs).

Good sign especially for Tyjae Spears, Kenny McIntosh, Jahmyr Gibbs, and Bijan Robinson, and some guys who don't have as strong an overall receiving profile. Bad sign for Sean Tucker & Travis Dye, and to a lesser extent for Devon Achane & Deuce Vaughn.

 

[ZWK]

Here are the players with the biggest drops problem over their college career. They are sorted by drop rate over expected, where deeper passes have a higher expected drop rate (and passes behind the line of scrimmage have an especially low expected drop rate), and RBs generally drop more passes. Raw data from PFF, calculations of expectations & drop rate mine.

Career drop rate
14.3% RB Zach Evans (5/35)
16.1% TE Luke Musgrave (9/56)
14.5% WR Trey Palmer (19/131)
13.7% RB Sean Tucker (10/73)
11.6% RB Tank Bigsby (8/69)
12.5% RB Lew Nichols III (10/80)
14.3% WR Dontayvion Wicks (15/105)
11.8% WR Rakim Jarrett (16/136)
12.0% WR Keytaon Thompson (19/158)
11.6% RB Israel Abanikanda (5/43)
11.1% WR Zay Flowers (24/216)
11.5% TE Will Mallory (15/130)

On the other end of the spectrum, great catch rates from RB Kenny McIntosh, TE Dalton Kincaid, RB Jahmyr Gibbs, WR Charlie Jones, and WR Cedric Tillman.

 

[Ilov80s]

One more RB receiving stat: number of missed tackles forced per reception.



0.30 Zach Charbonnet
0.29 Dalvin Cook
0.29 Mohamed Ibrahim*
0.28 Saquon Barkley
0.28 Toa Taua
0.28 Nyheim Hines


0.25 is averageish for a college RB. So plenty of good NFL receiving backs were averageish or just slightly above average, but none were notably below average. I'd expect this stat to depend partly on usage: it's probably easier to get a missed tackle on underneath or behind-the-line-of-scrimmage throws which are designed to get the ball to a playmaker one-on-one in space, and harder to force a missed tackle on more receiver-type routes down the field (which is maybe why Pollard is last here among the NFL backs).

Good sign especially for Tyjae Spears, Kenny McIntosh, Jahmyr Gibbs, and Bijan Robinson, and some guys who don't have as strong an overall receiving profile. Bad sign for Sean Tucker & Travis Dye, and to a lesser extent for Devon Achane & Deuce Vaughn.

Love seeing that for Chabonnet.

 

[massraider]

Love seeing that for Chabonnet.

And Spears all by himself in a tier.

 

[ZWK]

Hayden Winks's RB profiles at Underdog are really good, both the takes and the data & film work behind them.

e.g., Here's what he has to say about Sean Tucker as a receiver

Tucker caught 36 passes as a junior but that may trick people into thinking he has a layup passing down role. He battled drops, isn’t an advanced route runner (mostly screens and checkdowns), and only pass blocked on 8% of his dropbacks. His receiving production was simply getting the team’s most explosive player the ball in cheap ways.

The one thing that gives me pause on that Tucker take is this catch against Virginia (at 3:21). Though I believe that was the second-longest catch of Tucker's college career, so it's not like he did things like this often.

Here's his take on Gibbs (I've edited out the details behind the take, click through to read the whole thing)

a dynamic passing down back with juice on early down runs [...] high-end speed [...] approximately zero power to his game [...] it'd be a surprise if he saw many NFL goal line carries. This is where the Alvin Kamara comparisons lose me. [...] has Tony Pollard potential as a change-of-pace rusher and difference-making passing down back

And I do recommend reading the whole thing, for Gibbs, Tucker, and the other 14 backs.

 

[ZWK]

Here is the career contested rate for this year's WR and TE classes.

This post in last year's thread explains this stat in more detail, and has numbers for last year's class (in that case it's just final season data rather than career numbers). Key parts of the explanation:

I calculated these from PFF data - the basic idea is, out of all the catchable balls thrown to the player, what fraction were contested catch opportunities?
[...]
This is a style stat more than an ability stat, although my guess is that being near the middle is better than being at either extreme - extremely high suggests that you have trouble getting open, extremely low suggests that your QB doesn't have the trust to throw it to you unless you're open.

This year I also calculated an expected contested rate, based on the depth of the player's catchable targets (deeper targets are contested more often, targets behind the line of scrimmage are rarely contested). This list is sorted by contested rate over expected, but the number is just the player's career contested rate:

34% Quentin Johnston WR
30% Jake Bobo WR
37% Dontayvion Wicks WR
30% Cedric Tillman WR
29% Charlie Jones WR
28% Jayden Reed WR
26% Michael Mayer TE
28% Joseph Ngata WR
28% Jonathan Mingo WR
24% Keytaon Thompson WR
29% Jared Wayne WR
26% Puka Nacua WR
23% Sam LaPorta TE
27% Luke Musgrave TE
23% Rashee Rice WR
24% Dontay Demus Jr. WR
21% Payne Durham TE
23% Will Mallory TE
24% Tyler Scott WR
21% Xavier Hutchinson WR
23% Dalton Kincaid TE
20% Brevyn Spann-Ford TE
22% Trey Palmer WR
20% Cade Stover TE
24% A.T. Perry WR
21% Kayshon Boutte WR
19% Josh Whyle TE
25% Darnell Washington TE
18% Parker Washington WR
18% Jordan Addison WR
19% Ronnie Bell WR
18% Luke Schoonmaker TE
16% Cameron Latu TE
20% Marvin Mims WR
14% Josh Downs WR
16% Zay Flowers WR
14% Rakim Jarrett WR
12% Jalen Moreno-Cropper WR
14% Nathaniel Dell WR
12% Jaxon Smith-Njigba WR
11% Jalin Hyatt WR

 

[Ilov80s]

Not sure if your analysis last year was correct but you said

This is a style stat more than an ability stat, although my guess is that being near the middle is better than being at either extreme - extremely high suggests that you have trouble getting open, extremely low suggests that your QB doesn't have the trust to throw it to you unless you're open.

Hopefully that isn't the case because Q, Hyatt, JSN, Dell, Flowers and Downs all find themselves at the extremes.

 

[ZWK]

Here are the rd1-3 WRs with the highest contested rate over expected, 2018-22 draft classes. These are college career numbers, but only cover seasons from 2017-22 (since that's when I have this data for), so it's missing earlier seasons from some players.

51% JJ Arcega-Whiteside
42% Nico Collins
42% Josh Palmer
33% N'Keal Harry
38% Alec Pierce
36% Denzel Mims
34% Quentin Johnston WR
30% Jake Bobo WR
37% Dontayvion Wicks WR
27% Deebo Samuel
31% David Bell
32% Courtland Sutton
30% Jalen Reagor
28% Michael Gallup
31% Terrace Marshall Jr.
33% Miles Boykin
31% Tee Higgins
30% Cedric Tillman WR
29% Charlie Jones WR
28% Jayden Reed WR
26% Michael Mayer TE
26% Bryan Edwards

A lot of busts who had trouble getting open in the NFL. A few pretty good to great players in the lower part of the list who I think of as good contested catch receivers (Sutton, Gallup, Higgins). It's interesting that Deebo is on there too, when his strengths match up fairly well with Quentin Johnston's even though they have different builds. Still seems like a negative for Johnston & Wicks.

And here are the ones with the lowest contested rate over expected:
11% Jameson Williams
11% Jalin Hyatt WR
9% Mecole Hardman
12% Jaxon Smith-Njigba WR
8% Kadarius Toney
14% Diontae Johnson
13% Jaylen Waddle
13% Jerry Jeudy
13% Marquise Brown
14% Nathaniel Dell WR
17% Chris Olave
12% Brandon Aiyuk
12% Jalen Moreno-Cropper WR
15% KJ Hamler
9% Amari Rodgers
9% Anthony Schwartz
9% Rondale Moore

(Jameson Williams had the lowest contested rate vs. expected; Rondale Moore had a lower contested rate but he caught lots of screens & such which are rarely contested and so is closer to average for his route depth.) It's less clear that this is bad - a lot of technicians & speed guys, some guys who are very good at getting open. Also seems like it might be better to just look at contested rate for these guys, rather than contested rate over expected, because low expected contested rate means lots of screens and such which is probably a bad sign.

 

[IHEARTFF]

::Casually tries to unload Alec Pierce shares::

 

[Bracie Smathers]

92 Deneric Prince (3.5 ypg)

Eric prince
@Ericpri22801694
Deneric Prince is one to watch. He blazed a 4.32 a few days ago........ @ 6.1 and 217lbs IJS...
-----------------------
Derrick Blaylock
@blaylock_23
18 steps through 39 yards!!!!!! !! Guess the time??? @denericprince @DraftDiamonds @nfl 6’1 217 RB!!

 

[ZWK]

Career sack rates, data from footballdb

2.9% Stetson Bennett
3.0% CJ Stroud
4.0% Jaren Hall
4.1% Anthony Richardson
4.3% Aidan O’Connell
6.2% Bryce Young
6.5% Jake Haener
7.9% Tanner McKee
8.9% Hendon Hooker
9.0% Will Levis

Good from Bennett, Stroud, Hall, Richardson, and O'Connell, mediocre from Young & Haener, bad from McKee, Hooker, and Levis.

I have Richardson > Levis among the two toolsy prospects. Richardson is a better athlete who is more dangerous running the ball, and he has better pocket presence / sack avoidance. Still a pretty big gap between them and the top 2 (Stroud & Young, in some order), and I'm not sure on Richardson vs. Hooker.

 

[ZWK]

A couple more TE stats, with the past 3 TE classes (top 150 picks) included for comparison.

Yards After Catch per reception (with missed tackles per reception in parentheses):
8.0 Brevin Jordan 2021 (20% MT rate)
7.6 Harrison Bryant 2020 (16% MT rate)
7.5 Darnell Washington (31% MT rate)
7.0 Brycen Hopkins 2020 (8% MT rate)
6.7 Will Mallory (16% MT rate)
6.6 Greg Dulcich 2022 (10% MT rate)
6.4 Josh Whyle (8% MT rate)
6.4 Brenton Strange (20% MT rate)
6.2 Tre' McKitty 2021 (11% MT rate)
6.1 Devin Asiasi 2020 (15% MT rate)
6.0 Hunter Long 2021 (7% MT rate)
6.0 Cade Stover (20% MT rate)
6.0 Kylen Granson 2021 (12% MT rate)
5.9 Brevyn Spann-Ford (11% MT rate)
5.9 Daniel Bellinger 2022 (7% MT rate)
5.8 Jelani Woods 2022 (17% MT rate)
5.8 Isaiah Likely 2022 (20% MT rate)
5.8 Cameron Latu (11% MT rate)
5.7 Cade Otton 2022 (11% MT rate)
5.7 Josiah Deguara 2020 (9% MT rate)
5.6 Luke Schoonmaker (4% MT rate)
5.6 Sam LaPorta (24% MT rate)
[5.5 AVERAGE drafted top 150 TE (12% MT rate)]
5.5 Albert Okwuegbunam 2020 (12% MT rate)
5.5 Trey McBride 2022 (9% MT rate)
5.4 Kyle Pitts 2021 (10% MT rate)
5.4 Pat Freiermuth 2021 (14% MT rate)
5.3 Chigoziem Okonkwo 2022 (18% MT rate)
5.3 Payne Durham (20% MT rate)
5.2 Dalton Kincaid (16% MT rate)
4.9 Michael Mayer (17% MT rate)
4.8 Jeremy Ruckert 2022 (11% MT rate)
4.7 Cole Kmet 2020 (10% MT rate)
4.6 Davis Allen (6% MT rate)
4.6 Jake Ferguson 2022 (22% MT rate)
4.1 Tommy Tremble 2021 (9% MT rate)
3.9 Colby Parkinson 2020 (5% MT rate)
3.8 Luke Musgrave (4% MT rate)
3.4 Charlie Kolar 2022 (6% MT rate)
3.0 Cole Turner 2022 (9% MT rate)

Great for Darnell Washington, awful for Luke Musgrave, averageish for Kincaid & Mayer with below average YAC/rec but above average MT/rec.

Contested Catch Rate
72% Davis Allen (18/25)
60% Michael Mayer (33/55)
57% Dalton Kincaid (16/28)
50% Darnell Washington (7/14)
50% Brenton Strange (6/12)
[49% AVERAGE drafted top 150 TE]
48% Payne Durham (15/31)
47% Brevyn Spann-Ford (8/17)
45% Cameron Latu (5/11)
45% Josh Whyle (9/20)
41% Sam LaPorta (18/44)
40% Cade Stover (4/10)
39% Luke Musgrave (7/18)
38% Will Mallory (13/34)
25% Luke Schoonmaker (3/12)

Smaller samples are less informative.

Kind of concerning that Luke Musgrave does badly in so many of these stats, with a poor contested catch rate to go along with his awful drop rate and low YAC & MT per reception. Looks like I'll probably have him behind Mayer & Kincaid, even though he has a good chance to blow up the combine.

 

[ZWK]

Here are the top 20 receivers according to my standard formula, along with their percentile (in parentheses) relative to rd1-3 FBS WRs since 2007. These could change some after the combine, since size & athleticism are a meaningful part of this rating (though the largest weight goes to production, especially a player's best season & to a lesser extent his final season and second best season).

Jalin Hyatt (86th)
Quentin Johnston (70th)

Jaxon Smith-Njigba (55th)
Marvin Mims Jr. (47th)
Jordan Addison (45th)

Jared Wayne (43rd)
Trey Palmer (38th)
Zay Flowers (38th)
Nathaniel Dell (38th)
Tyler Scott (35th)
Charlie Jones (32nd)
Dontayvion Wicks (32nd)

Cedric Tillman (29th)
Kayshon Boutte (29th)
Antoine Green (29th)
Michael Mayer (26th)
Rashee Rice (26th)
Josh Downs (26th)
C.J. Johnson (25th)
Puka Nacua (25th)

Generally a weak class, because so many of the receivers are small and the production hasn't been that great.

The basic story behind the top 5 is fairly straightforward. The 4 best individual seasons by WRs in this class, by this formula, are Jalin Hyatt 2022, Jaxon Smith-Njigba 2021, Jordan Addison 2021, and Marvin Mims 2022. Quentin Johnston hasn't reached similar heights of production, but he has been pretty good, and he is one of the few guys in this class with good size & athleticism. Personally, I think that this is a reasonable top 5 but Hyatt seems overrated by this formula; IMO JSN's 2021 was a better season and this formula can go a little overboard for one-dimensional deep threats and Hyatt fits the bill.

I have also been tinkering around with new ways of setting up a WR rating formula. Here are the top 20 according to a new method I've been playing around with, which 1) is based on career production stats rather than individual seasons and 2) doesn't take size & athleticism into account at all. It uses career stats like AYPT and AYPRR (and YAC & drop rate & some others) because I think that is also a promising angle for looking at career production, and it doesn't include size or athleticism because I haven't taken the time yet to add those numbers to this data set. Percentile in parentheses is relative to rd1-3 WRs since 2016, since that's the group that I have this PFF data for.

Jaxon Smith-Njigba (90th)

Marvin Mims Jr. (76th)
Jordan Addison (76th)
Jalin Hyatt (69th)
Nathaniel Dell (61st)
Quentin Johnston (59th)
Puka Nacua (54th)
Josh Downs (49th)
Xavier Hutchinson (41st)

Parker Washington (34th)
Michael Jefferson (31st)
Kayshon Boutte (30th)
Dalton Kincaid (30th)
Tyler Scott (28th)
Michael Mayer (27th)
Antoine Green (24th)
Jared Wayne (24th)
Demario Douglas (24th)
Zay Flowers (20th)
Rashee Rice (17th)

Nearly the same top 5, even without accounting for size & athleticism, except little Tank Dell slips just in front of Quentin Johnston.

If I combine these two ratings just by averaging the percentiles together, giving twice as much weight to whichever is higher, then here's the top 25 ranking I get:

Jalin Hyatt (86th, 69th)
Jaxon Smith-Njigba (55th, 90th)

Marvin Mims Jr. (47th, 76th)
Quentin Johnston (70th, 59th)
Jordan Addison (45th, 76th)

Nathaniel Dell (38th, 61st)
Puka Nacua (25th, 54th)
Josh Downs (26th, 49th)
Jared Wayne (43rd, 24th)

Tyler Scott (35th, 28th)
Zay Flowers (38th, 20th)
Kayshon Boutte (29th, 30th)
Xavier Hutchinson (5th, 41st)
Antoine Green (29th, 24th)
Trey Palmer (38th, 5th)
Dontayvion Wicks (32nd, 16th)
Michael Mayer (26th, 27th)
Parker Washington (11th, 34th)
Michael Jefferson (12th, 31st)
Cedric Tillman (29th, 17th)
Charlie Jones (32nd, 10th)
Dalton Kincaid (11th, 30th)
Rashee Rice (26th, 17th)
C.J. Johnson (25th, 10th)
Demario Douglas (5th, 24th)

Compared to rd1-3 WRs, on the whole these two formulas think that Jalin Hyatt & Jaxon Smith-Njigba have good profiles, Mims, Johnston, and Addison have slightly above average profiles, Dell, Nacua, Downs, and Jared Wayne have slightly below average profiles, and everyone else besides those 9 WRs has a fairly bad profile (though fairly bad for a WR is good for a TE with Mayer & Kincaid).

At this stage, for fantasy I think there's a top tier of 3: JSN, Johnston, and Addison; at this stage I'd put them in that order. Hyatt probably belongs on that tier for NFL value but not for fantasy value, because of how a speedy deep threat opens up the field without getting the ball. After that it gets messier and I think these WRs are generally being overrated for fantasy relative to other positions. Mims is the one guy whose numbers look pretty good here but a lot of that is that he's getting a boost from the formula that doesn't know how small he is, so I do think he's being underrated relative to the other WRs in this class but I don't like him as much as this ranking does.

 

[eighsse2]

Here are the top 20 receivers according to my standard formula, along with their percentile (in parentheses) relative to rd1-3 FBS WRs since 2007. These could change some after the combine, since size & athleticism are a meaningful part of this rating (though the largest weight goes to production, especially a player's best season & to a lesser extent his final season and second best season).

Jalin Hyatt (86th)
Quentin Johnston (70th)

Jaxon Smith-Njigba (55th)
Marvin Mims Jr. (47th)
Jordan Addison (45th)

Jared Wayne (43rd)
Trey Palmer (38th)
Zay Flowers (38th)
Nathaniel Dell (38th)
Tyler Scott (35th)
Charlie Jones (32nd)
Dontayvion Wicks (32nd)

Cedric Tillman (29th)
Kayshon Boutte (29th)
Antoine Green (29th)
Michael Mayer (26th)
Rashee Rice (26th)
Josh Downs (26th)
C.J. Johnson (25th)
Puka Nacua (25th)

Generally a weak class, because so many of the receivers are small and the production hasn't been that great.

The basic story behind the top 5 is fairly straightforward. The 4 best individual seasons by WRs in this class, by this formula, are Jalin Hyatt 2022, Jaxon Smith-Njigba 2021, Jordan Addison 2021, and Marvin Mims 2022. Quentin Johnston hasn't reached similar heights of production, but he has been pretty good, and he is one of the few guys in this class with good size & athleticism. Personally, I think that this is a reasonable top 5 but Hyatt seems overrated by this formula; IMO JSN's 2021 was a better season and this formula can go a little overboard for one-dimensional deep threats and Hyatt fits the bill.

I have also been tinkering around with new ways of setting up a WR rating formula. Here are the top 20 according to a new method I've been playing around with, which 1) is based on career production stats rather than individual seasons and 2) doesn't take size & athleticism into account at all. It uses career stats like AYPT and AYPRR (and YAC & drop rate & some others) because I think that is also a promising angle for looking at career production, and it doesn't include size or athleticism because I haven't taken the time yet to add those numbers to this data set. Percentile in parentheses is relative to rd1-3 WRs since 2016, since that's the group that I have this PFF data for.

Jaxon Smith-Njigba (90th)

Marvin Mims Jr. (76th)
Jordan Addison (76th)
Jalin Hyatt (69th)
Nathaniel Dell (61st)
Quentin Johnston (59th)
Puka Nacua (54th)
Josh Downs (49th)
Xavier Hutchinson (41st)

Parker Washington (34th)
Michael Jefferson (31st)
Kayshon Boutte (30th)
Dalton Kincaid (30th)
Tyler Scott (28th)
Michael Mayer (27th)
Antoine Green (24th)
Jared Wayne (24th)
Demario Douglas (24th)
Zay Flowers (20th)
Rashee Rice (17th)

Nearly the same top 5, even without accounting for size & athleticism, except little Tank Dell slips just in front of Quentin Johnston.

If I combine these two ratings just by averaging the percentiles together, giving twice as much weight to whichever is higher, then here's the top 25 ranking I get:

Jalin Hyatt (86th, 69th)
Jaxon Smith-Njigba (55th, 90th)

Marvin Mims Jr. (47th, 76th)
Quentin Johnston (70th, 59th)
Jordan Addison (45th, 76th)

Nathaniel Dell (38th, 61st)
Puka Nacua (25th, 54th)
Josh Downs (26th, 49th)
Jared Wayne (43rd, 24th)

Tyler Scott (35th, 28th)
Zay Flowers (38th, 20th)
Kayshon Boutte (29th, 30th)
Xavier Hutchinson (5th, 41st)
Antoine Green (29th, 24th)
Trey Palmer (38th, 5th)
Dontayvion Wicks (32nd, 16th)
Michael Mayer (26th, 27th)
Parker Washington (11th, 34th)
Michael Jefferson (12th, 31st)
Cedric Tillman (29th, 17th)
Charlie Jones (32nd, 10th)
Dalton Kincaid (11th, 30th)
Rashee Rice (26th, 17th)
C.J. Johnson (25th, 10th)
Demario Douglas (5th, 24th)

Compared to rd1-3 WRs, on the whole these two formulas think that Jalin Hyatt & Jaxon Smith-Njigba have good profiles, Mims, Johnston, and Addison have slightly above average profiles, Dell, Nacua, Downs, and Jared Wayne have slightly below average profiles, and everyone else besides those 9 WRs has a fairly bad profile (though fairly bad for a WR is good for a TE with Mayer & Kincaid).

At this stage, for fantasy I think there's a top tier of 3: JSN, Johnston, and Addison; at this stage I'd put them in that order. Hyatt probably belongs on that tier for NFL value but not for fantasy value, because of how a speedy deep threat opens up the field without getting the ball. After that it gets messier and I think these WRs are generally being overrated for fantasy relative to other positions. Mims is the one guy whose numbers look pretty good here but a lot of that is that he's getting a boost from the formula that doesn't know how small he is, so I do think he's being underrated relative to the other WRs in this class but I don't like him as much as this ranking does.

Interesting that both Mims and Hyatt are right in the thick of the elite tier of the class, regardless of which method.

 

[ZWK]

Here's the ranking that my classic WR formula gives after the combine:

Jalin Hyatt, 86th -> 82nd
Marvin Mims Jr., 47th -> 79th
Quentin Johnston, 70th -> 66th

Jaxon Smith-Njigba, 55th -> 48th
Trey Palmer, 38th -> 44th

Matt Landers, ??? -> 43rd
Jared Wayne, 43rd -> 43rd
Zay Flowers, 38th -> 43rd
Jordan Addison, 45th -> 43rd
Nathaniel Dell, 38th -> 37th
Cedric Tillman, 29th -> 34th
Charlie Jones, 32nd -> 32nd

Tyler Scott, 35th -> 30th
Dontayvion Wicks, 32nd -> 29th
Antoine Green, 29th -> 29th
Rashee Rice, 26th -> 27th
Michael Mayer, 26th -> 26th
Josh Downs, 26th -> 26th
Kayshon Boutte, 29th -> 26th
C.J. Johnson, 25th -> 25th
A.T. Perry, 20th -> 24th
Puka Nacua, 25th -> 21st

Biggest news for the combine WRs was Marvin Mims coming in a bit bigger & faster than expected, at 183 lb, 4.38 forty (vs. expected 179 lb, 4.46 forty) with good jumps. Because he had good enough production to care about his combine results, that moves him significantly up my ratings, from a 47th percentile prospect to a 79th percentile prospect (relative to rd1-3 WRs).

Also big news: Jordan Addison drops down a tier after coming in a bit smaller and slower than expected; it's not much of a drop by percentile, but it's at an important part of the ratings scale where successful NFL players become significantly less common as you drop.

The other big riser is Trey Palmer, though partly that's because I screwed up before the combine by using an unrealistically slow projected 40 time which I copied from some source that apparently didn't know about his 100m speed. He moves up to 5th in the rankings by running slightly faster than I should've projected him for (and much faster than I did have him projected for).

Also, I had failed to realized that Matt Landers was in this draft class - my formula sees some potential in him, putting him right by where it has Addison. I sometimes use the formula to judge whether to like a player more or less than where he's drafted - with that rating, I'll generally like a player about in-line with his draft capital if he's drafted in rd3-4, less than his drafted capital if he's drafted rd1-2, and more than his draft capital if he goes rd5+.

 

[ZWK]

Here are my RB speed tiers:

Devon Achane
Keaton Mitchell
Jahmyr Gibbs

Deuce Vaughn
Sean Tucker
Israel Abanikanda
Kendre Miller

Bijan Robinson
Chase Brown
Tyjae Spears
Zach Charbonnet

Tiyon Evans
Tank Bigsby
Roschon Johnson
Kenny McIntosh
Zach Evans
DeWayne McBride

I'm projecting the guys in the top tier to run 4.3something, the second tier to run 4.4something, the third tier to run 4.5ish, and the last tier to run 4.5something. Ranking within a tier is mostly not that meaningful, except within the first tier.

Guys not listed I haven't evaluated yet.

These were basically right on for the guys who ran today, except Chase Brown ran a tier faster than expected (4.43) and Kenny McIntosh ran a tier slower than expected (4.62). I later added Evan Hull to the Tucker/Abanikanda tier, and came up with predicted 40 times for all these guys - you can see those here along w actual 40 times. For the 11 guys who ran, average error was less than 0.03 seconds and the correlation was r = 0.95.

 

[ZWK]

My RB formula is giving these rankings after the combine:

Guys I Like A Lot: Bijan Robinson
Guys I Like: Israel Abanikanda*, Zach Charbonnet, DeWayne McBride*, Devon Achane, Keaton Mitchell, Kendre Miller*, Tyjae Spears
Guys Who Have A Decent Chance: Sean Tucker*, Jahmyr Gibbs, Tank Bigsby, Chase Brown, Eric Gray*
Guys I Can't Rule Out: Evan Hull, Deneric Prince, Travis Dye*, Zach Evans*, Christopher Brooks*, Toa Taua*, Roschon Johnson

Deuce Vaughn just barely misses the cut for that last tier.

* for guys who don't have a forty time (mostly because they chose not to run at the combine, although Brooks & Taua weren't invited to the combine). I'm using an estimated 40 time for those guys; if they chose not to run it's a bit slower than I was estimating before the combine.

My personal rankings are a little different from this.

Some guys that I'm lower on than my formula:
Israel Abanikanda - slows down way too much when he makes moves
DeWayne McBride - lack of receiving, plus some doubts about athleticism/level of competition
Keaton Mitchell - very raw & mistake-prone on tape, and 179 is tiny (especially because I thought his best path to NFL success required a lot of rushing attempts & not just a receiving-heavy role)

Some I'm higher on:
Kendre Miller - looked good on tape, has a good reason for not working out at the combine (MCL) & probably would have good athletic testing
Jahmyr Gibbs - his skillset fits together well as a receiving back (speed, elusiveness in space, route running, hands)
Roschon Johnson - great excuse for his lack of workload, workhorse potential

So my personal ranking is something like this:

Bijan Robinson

Zach Charbonnet
Kendre Miller
Jahmyr Gibbs

Devon Achane
Tyjae Spears

DeWayne McBride
Israel Abanikanda
Tank Bigsby
Sean Tucker
Chase Brown
Roschon Johnson

Keaton Mitchell
Zach Evans
Eric Gray
Evan Hull
Deuce Vaughn
?Deneric Prince?

(I haven't evaluated Prince yet.)

 

[Birdie048]

So my personal ranking is something like this:

Bijan Robinson

Zach Charbonnet
Kendre Miller
Jahmyr Gibbs

Thanks for your efforts! Much appreciated and impressive sharing this info!

From a 1 QB PPR perspective:
Bijan at 1.01 & Gibbs goes 1.02 pending format/landing
My view is Zach Charbonnet at 1.07 range or Kendre Miller at 2.01 range pending draft capital, but RB Depth in the Draft + surplus of FA RB could depress them somewhat.
WR's will hold 3-6 in some manner, but RB3 is still up for grabs!

Charbonnet was a little lighter than expected, but not alarming for his size, but also a little slower (4.53 is still impressive)

I am a little surprised Chase Brown did not move up more in your view with his performance - 4.43 40, 10'7" Broad & 40" Vert.

 

[ZWK]

Keaton Mitchell: 179 lb, 5'8.3", 27.0 BMI, 30.8" arm
Tarik Cohen: 179 lb, 5'6.4", 28.6 BMI, 29.8" arm
Deuce Vaughn: 179 lb, 5'5.3", 29.6 BMI, 27.8" arm

Generally I think it's better to be short than thin if you're this light. Receiving RBs like Sproles, Woodhead, and Chris Thompson are often short, rarely thin (Cohen is one of the thinnest, and one of the shortest.) Deuce Vaughn is really pushing it in terms of lack of height, though, at about an inch shorter than Cohen (or Sproles) and almost 2 inches shorter than Rondale Moore. And with short arms, too. Could limit him in the receiving game.

Rondale Moore: 181 lb, 5'7.0", 28.3 BMI, 28.3" arm

 

[ZWK]

The combine turned the overall TE ratings topsy turvy. Before the combine, it looked like there was a clear top 4 of Mayer, Kincaid, Musgrave, and Washington (in some order), with a case for separating that into a top 2 of Mayer & Kincaid (in some order) and a next 2. My analysis basically agreed with both parts of that, and had Sam LaPorta leading the way for TE5.

Then Mayer had a below average combine, Kincaid skipped the workouts, the other 3 had good workout numbers, and Zack Kuntz had amazing numbers. So now there's more of a top 6, with the order within that group less clear. Also Will Mallory, Luke Schoonmaker, and Tucker Kraft have a case for being in the picture.


Best TE Athleticism+Size Rankings from the combine by my numbers (with RAS and SPORQ athleticism ranking in parentheses)

Zack Kuntz (1, 1)

Sam LaPorta (6, 6)
Luke Musgrave (2, 2)
Will Mallory (7, 5)
Luke Schoonmaker (4, 4)
Darnell Washington (3, 3)
Tucker Kraft (5, 8)
Brenton Strange (8, 7)

Those are the guys who are above average.

My athleticism+size maybe don't put enough weight on size, e.g. Washington feels like he should be ahead of 239-pound Mallory, and that's how Relative Athletic Score & Scott Barrett's SPORQ have it. It's a little tricky because TE size isn't that reflective of fantasy value, because larger TEs are more likely to have a bigger blocking role.


My TE formula overall rankings; 2021 & 2022 draft classes included for comparison:

Kyle Pitts 2021


Trey McBride 2022
Zack Kuntz 2023
Greg Dulcich 2022
Jelani Woods 2022
Luke Musgrave 2023
Sam LaPorta 2023
Charlie Kolar 2022
Kylen Granson 2021
Dalton Kincaid 2023 *

Will Mallory 2023
Michael Mayer 2023
Darnell Washington 2023
Isaiah Likely 2022
Gerrit Prince 2022
Brevin Jordan 2021

Luke Schoonmaker 2023
Hunter Long 2021
Tucker Kraft 2023 **
Daniel Bellinger 2022
Chigoziem Okonkwo 2022

* didn't work out at combine, athleticism based on predicted 40 time
** FCS, rated only on size+athleticism assuming average production

For 2021-22 this only includes FBS TEs who worked out & were drafted, so (e.g.) Pat Freiermuth (no workout), Kenny Yeboah (UDFA), and Zach Davidson (FCS) are missing. In this class, there is more uncertainty on where Dalton Kincaid (no workout) & Tucker Kraft (FCS) should be ranked.


My current inclination is to rate these guys somewhere between this ranking and what I thought pre-combine, but I should take a closer look at Kuntz & these other guys who had a good combine.

 

[ZWK]

The top 3 QBs all had good combines, in different ways.

Bryce Young came in at about the same size as Russell Wilson & Kyler Murray, which reduces concerns that he's too small.
Russell Wilson: 5'10.6", 204 lb, 28.8 BMI
Kyler Murray: 5'10.1", 207 lb, 29.6 BMI
Bryce Young: 5'10.1", 204 lb, 29.2 BMI

Reports are that CJ Stroud threw the ball really well at the combine, with great accuracy and good velocity (59 mph).

Anthony Richardson had ridiculously good workout numbers, including the highest speed score of any offensive player (based on weight & 40 time) and a record high QB RAS, with numbers that would also be great for a RB. Also had good velocity on his throws (60 mph).

I still like Young and Stroud better as NFL QBs, but at this point it looks like all three are likely to be top 10 NFL picks and Richardson seems like the favorite for highest fantasy points per start thanks to the outsized value of rushing production. In 1 QB leagues I think that makes Richardson the top fantasy QB. It's less clear in superflex or 2 QB leagues, where QB scarcity makes the gap between a bust and a long-term starter matter more.

 

[Birdie048]

There were some reports that ARich was throwing 59-60 mph (fastest at Combine since Baker)
—> ETA: Not most reliable sources though

 

[ZWK]

WR1 Jaxon Smith-Njigba
IMO his 2021 season was the best season by any Ohio State WR in recent history, which is pretty tough competition. It's neck-and-neck with Jalin Hyatt's 2022 for best season by any WR in this class (my standard formula rates Hyatt's a little higher, but I think JSN's was probably better since he had way more first downs and similarly good YPT & yardage market share). He outperformed Olave, and had similar numbers to Garrett Wilson when they both played (with fewer snaps but better per-route production, 3.32 YPRR for JSN vs. 3.00 for Wilson), and in the 2 games Wilson missed he went absolutely ridiculous with 6.33 yards per route run and 15/293/2 receiving *per game* over those 2 games. And we saw how good Wilson & Olave were in the NFL. The new method I've been putting together of rating career production also likes his production a lot. He's been good at getting open, good at catching the ball, and good after the catch - relatively few of his targets were contested but he caught the contested ones at a good rate, he has a fairly low drop rate and fairly high YAC/rec and MT/rec. He has averageish size (196 lb) and athleticism (opted out of the 40, below average jumps, great agility drills but those don't matter much) which is a negative, but at least he's not tiny. The other big negative injury-riddled 2022 season, when he couldn't shake his hamstring injury and did very little. So that could indicate future soft tissue injury risk, and it means that the sample size for Smith-Njigba is basically reduced to that one huge season. Overall, I think I like him about as much as I liked Garrett Wilson a year ago.

WR2 Quentin Johnston
Pretty good size (good height & arms, thinnish) with great athleticism. Dangerous after the catch with good YAC/rec and tons of missed tackles, also productive as a downfield receiver. Pretty good production - never had a huge year, but his career YPRR and YPT are both above average for an early round WR. Reports are that he has some trouble getting separation and some trouble catching the ball ("body catcher"), and the numbers I have back up both with a lot of contested targets, a poor contested catch rate on those targets, and a high drop rate (he just barely missed this list). We'll see what the Reception Perception numbers say about his ability to get open. My classic formula sees some exciting traits, and just enough production so that there's hope of having those traits translate. My new experimental formula likes his production profile more, and likes some of those traits (YAC & MT), but doesn't know about his size & speed and isn't quite as high on him on the whole.

 

[Lehigh98]

Israel Abanikanda

Abanikanda don't... want... none... unless you got... buns... hon.
Hopefully, Sir Mix-a-lot sticks in someone else's head when he's mentioned now too.

Great work by the way!

 

[ZWK]

Zay Flowers
Dynamic receiver, good athleticism, good after the catch & shows similar movement skills as a route runner. Ran routes at all distances. Undersized at 5'9.3 182 lb with short arms for his size. High drop rate & low contested catch success rate, similar to Quentin Johnston. Improved every year, has been Boston College's leading receiver since his sophomore year, top 20 in the country in receiving yards this season (his SR year) on an otherwise fairly unproductive passing offense. My classic formula likes his production more than my new formula - he had a big market share and plenty of big plays, but his YPT was fairly low (below 9.0 both this year and for his career) and his YPRR was also below average relative to successful NFL WRs (below 2.3 both this year and for his career). My classic formula still doesn't like him that much, dinging him for his size and for not declaring early. Could have a Jaylen Waddle type role, where the team gets it in his hands quickly as a playmaking & uses him down the field for chunk plays. But in a lot of ways his profile isn't that strong; note how many different ways I've described him as below average. Despite his lack of playing time, Waddle's profile was significant better in a lot of ways: Waddle had 1.7x the YPT, much better YPRR, higher YAC/rec, better hands, and probably better athleticism (though he didn't have a combine or pro day workout).

Josh Downs
Undersized (5'9.1", 171 lb.), primarily a slot receiver, used mainly underneath, pretty good speed/explosiveness but below average after the catch with very few missed tackles (and slightly below average YAC/rec). Good hands. Shows some go-up-and-get-it ball skills on deeper routes, with an average contested catch success rate despite his size, but that wasn't a huge part of his role in college and probably won't be in the NFL. Low YPT, but pretty good volume including AYPRR that's a bit above average compared to rd1-3 WRs. Early declare with two pretty good years in 2021 & 2022 but no huge years; my new formula (which goes by career stats) likes him better than my classic formula (which goes mainly by best season). 2021 with Sam Howell was his most productive season, mainly because he managed to break a few big plays when he had space after the catch. Somewhat concerning that Howell's numbers were down in 2021 with Downs as his primary receiver, compared to 2020 when he had Dyami Brown and Dazz Newsome. Profiles primarily as a possession receiver, underneath out of the slot, which usually isn't that valuable a role for fantasy (with occasional exceptions, especially in New England).

I'll take Flowers over Downs, but I think I'm lower than consensus on both.

 

[Winning IS Everything]

ZWK, I must say you are the man and I appreciate this thread every year. I am still digesting the info and will likely need a few more weeks to do so. Thank for the great material to look through!

 

[ZWK]

My personal top 11 WRs at this stage:

Jaxon Smith-Njigba
Quentin Johnston

Jalin Hyatt
Jordan Addison
Marvin Mims
Zay Flowers
Josh Downs

Kayshon Boutte
Trey Palmer
Nathaniel Dell
Cedric Tillman

Fairly weak class. Tiers are roughly "round 1", "day 2", and "round 3-4" NFL picks. So it's mainly a year for drafting RBs, or maybe TE or QB.

I haven't looked as closely at the guys after this, who I see as day 3 NFL picks, but if I were to keep going it would be something like:
Puka Nacua
Tyler Scott
Dontayvion Wicks
Rashee Rice
A.T. Perry
Matt Landers
Jared Wayne
Charlie Jones
Xavier Hutchinson
Parker Washington

 

[Birdie048]

I haven't looked as closely at the guys after this, who I see as day 3 NFL picks, but if I were to keep going it would be something like:
Puka Nacua
Tyler Scott
Rashee Rice
Xavier Hutchinson

Thanks for sharing! Always look forward to your work!

I am looking closer at these 4 potential WR picks. They each have shined in some way recently and they could be good early 3rd Fantasy picks.
Each could go NFL 3rd round draft selection if there is more positive info from Pro-day efforts

 

[ZWK]

Zack Kuntz had 88/862/7 receiving in his 5-year career, with most of that coming in 2021 with Old Dominion (73/692/5) where he was 2nd on the team in receiving. He started off with 3 years at Penn State where he barely played, then transferred to Old Dominion for his final 2 seasons. In 2022 his numbers were down and then he got injured.

I didn't include him in my earlier lists of TE stats, so here are his career numbers on the stats that I've posted here for other TEs:

8.21 Career AYPT (5.99 YPT) - lower than anyone in the list I posted, and lower than any TE drafted in the top 150 in recent years (Josh Oliver is the only other TE below 9.0, at 8.98)
2.62 Career AYPRR (1.91 YPRR) - 3rd best TE after Kincaid & Mayer
5% drop rate - good
22% contested rate - typical
42% contested success rate (10/24) - below average (avg=49%)
3.8 YAC/rec - worst in the class just behind Musgrave, better than a couple past TEs
0.11 MT/rec - a bit below average

Mostly not very good, with awful yards per target and yards after the catch. His high-volume receiving season in 2021 is the main bright spot of his career, and that translates into high career YPRR because 71% of his career routes were that season.

The low YPT is not because he never went deep - his 23 deep (20+ yard) targets are the most in this TE class (out of the guys who I've looked at stats for). But he only turned those 23 deep targets into 5/145/2 receiving - that's a 22% catch rate and just 6.3 YPT. Average for drafted TEs that I've looked at is like double that: 44% catch rate and 14.1 YPT on deep targets. I wish there was a video of those 23 plays - perhaps he was getting open & his QB was missing him - but my default assumption is that poor production numbers reflect on the player.

So on the whole it seems like his production didn't translate that well to the field.

 

[ZWK]

I posted earlier that these are the top 9 TEs by my formula:

My TE formula overall rankings; 2021 & 2022 draft classes included for comparison:

Kyle Pitts 2021


Trey McBride 2022
Zack Kuntz 2023
Greg Dulcich 2022
Jelani Woods 2022
Luke Musgrave 2023
Sam LaPorta 2023
Charlie Kolar 2022
Kylen Granson 2021
Dalton Kincaid 2023 *

Will Mallory 2023
Michael Mayer 2023
Darnell Washington 2023
Isaiah Likely 2022
Gerrit Prince 2022
Brevin Jordan 2021

Luke Schoonmaker 2023
Hunter Long 2021
Tucker Kraft 2023 **
Daniel Bellinger 2022
Chigoziem Okonkwo 2022

* didn't work out at combine, athleticism based on predicted 40 time
** FCS, rated only on size+athleticism assuming average production

I'm not seeing much excitement about any TE other than these 9. Outside of these 9, NFL Mock Draft Database's top TE is Cameron Latu at NFL draft pick 155, the PFF Big Board's top TE is Davis Allen at pick 136, and Lance Zierlein's top graded TE is Brenton Strange with 91 players graded ahead of him (and a couple tied).

The average top 7 across these three sources is: Kincaid, Mayer, Musgrave, Washington, LaPorta, Kraft, Schoonmaker. Generally Zack Kuntz and especially Will Mallory come later, usually after some other guys.

In fantasy circles I'm seeing more love for Kuntz and less for Schoonmaker and perhaps Kraft.

If I was drafting today, I think my ranking would be pretty similar. Something like:

Dalton Kincaid
Michael Mayer

Darnell Washington
Luke Musgrave
Sam LaPorta

Tucker Kraft
Luke Schoonmaker
Zack Kuntz

Will Mallory

But that ranking comes from me as an aggregator more than from my independent analysis.