ZWK's 2024 Prospect Analysis (1 Viewer)

[ZWK]

This thread is for my analysis of the 2024 draft class and other college players. Previously threads: 2023 draft class, 2022, 2021, 2020, 2019, 2018, 2017, 2016, 2015, 2014, 2013 WR & RB.

I don't have my spreadsheets up yet, but I have been taking a look at some receiving stats.

Here is the leaderboard in career adjusted yards per route run, which is YPRR plus a 5 yard bonus for each first down and a 15 yard bonus for each touchdown (along with YPRR in parentheses). I have included (I think) every active FBS player with 3+ AYPRR on 300+ total routes (with an * for guys with less than 500 routes). 3.3 AYPRR (and 2.5 YPRR) is roughly the median for WRs drafted in rd1-3. I've bolded the 10 WRs (and 1 TE) who seem to be the most highly regarded: 4 of the WRs (and 1 TE) are near the top (that's good), 2 WRs are slightly below average (not great but not so bad), and 4 of the WRs don't make the leaderboard and are down in the "other notable players" list (that's bad).

Career AYPRR (and YPRR) Leaderboard
4.21 Marvin Harrison Jr. (3.00)
4.21 Eric McAlister (3.18) *
3.73 Jacoby Jones (2.86) *
3.71 Devontez Walker (2.73)
3.71 TE Brock Bowers (2.69)
3.70 Malik Nabers (2.80)
3.66 Tez Johnson (2.80)
3.66 Emeka Egbuka (2.71)
3.58 Troy Franklin (2.61)
3.57 Jamari Thrash (2.70)
3.55 Ladd McConkey (2.59)
3.53 Tre Harris (2.62)
3.52 Reggie Brown (2.63) *
3.49 Squirrel White (2.81) *
3.49 Joey Hobert (2.55) *
3.42 Micah Davis (2.51) *
3.40 Jacolby George (2.55) *
3.39 Johnny Wilson (2.63)
3.36 Trevor Wilson (2.66) *
3.35 Jacob Cowing (2.52)
3.33 Roman Wilson (2.39)
[3.30 typical rd1-3 WR (2.50)]
3.27 Elic Ayomanor (2.58) *
3.26 Rome Odunze (2.44)
3.22 Dante Cephas (2.45)
3.21 Jared Brown (2.50)
3.20 Monaray Baldwin (2.47) *
3.17 CJ Daniels (2.33)
3.17 TE Bryson Nesbit (2.32)
3.14 Javon Baker (2.38)
3.11 Tyrin Smith (2.40)
3.10 Ricky White (2.43)
3.09 Tory Horton (2.31)
3.09 Xavier Worthy (2.27)
3.08 Jabre Barber (2.31)
3.08 Trayvon Rudolph (2.38)
3.07 Zakhari Franklin (2.18)
3.07 De'Corian Clark (2.22)
3.06 Moochie Dixon (2.30) *
3.05 Jeremiah Hunter (2.35)
3.05 Luther Burden III (2.25)
3.05 Ali Jennings (2.31)
3.04 Antwane Wells Jr. (2.33) *
3.03 TE Jaheim Bell (2.30)
3.02 Tyrese Chambers (2.28)

Some other notable players
2.96 Malachi Corley (2.14)
2.89 Jermaine Burton (2.13)
2.86 TE Harold Fannin Jr. (2.14) *
2.84 Jalen McMillan (2.10)
2.79 Keon Coleman (1.97)
2.79 Brenden Rice (2.00)
2.77 HB Donovan Edwards (2.20) *
2.76 Ja'Lynn Polk (2.07)
2.63 Brian Thomas Jr. (1.89)
2.63 Adonai Mitchell (1.79)
2.51 Evan Stewart (1.94)
2.48 Theo Wease (1.82)
2.39 TE Ja'Tavion Sanders (1.81)
2.18 J.Michael Sturdivant (1.62)
2.18 Xavier Legette (1.70)

More to come over the coming weeks.

 

[joey]

Love your work as always. If it’s not too much to ask, next time you post a list can you include the players positions as well? (I see you do it for TEs).
I barely follow college football at all, so seeing names combined with positions in these lists is super helpful for me to start getting used to these guys. Thanks!

 

[ZWK]

They're all WRs, unless otherwise specified.

 

[Soulfly3]

Strange seeing Odunze so "low"... I like him (don't love him)... Will need to see RoS and especially the landing spots for these guys.

I fear for Harrison landing in a terrible spot, because he is going to go VERY early this draft. And I mean VERY.

 

[ZWK]

Among the 10 WRs who seem to generally be most highly regarded (bolded in my original post), 6 get a clear thumbs up from my classic formula:
Marvin Harrison Jr. (Ohio State)
Malik Nabers (LSU)
Rome Odunze (Washington)
Brian Thomas, Jr. (LSU)
Xavier Legette (S Carolina)
Troy Franklin (Oregon)

Troy Franklin lags a bit behind the others in the overall rating because he's so small, but by production he is up there with the others. This formula puts a lot of weight on a player's best season and his last season, which is probably overly friendly to Xavier Legette, who is having a huge season as a 5th year senior after doing very little before this year. To a lesser extent, it probably overrates Rome Odunze who is having his clear best season in his 4th year (though he was pretty good last year too). Legette & Brian Thomas were both in the last tier by career AYPRR, but by the new career rating that I introduced last year (which is based on various career stats including AYPRR) Thomas actually does pretty well, while Legette does not. Thomas's career AYPT is great (the highest among all 10 of these WRs) and the formula rewards him for being a 3rd year receiver in the SEC.

The other 4 WRs basically don't meet the bar according to my classic formula, though 2-3 are kinda close:
Xavier Worthy (Texas)
Emeka Egbuka (Ohio State)
Keon Coleman (Florida State)
Adonai Mitchell (Texas)

Worthy & Egbuka are both early declares who did have one good season - Worthy in 2021, Egbuka in 2022, but have had down years this season which my classic formula punishes them for. Egbuka looks good by my new formula based on career AYPRR and other stats; Worthy kinda meh (including a 8.2 career YPT). Coleman & Mitchell have never had a good season according to my classic formula, and statistically don't look so good by either formula. Coleman has good size which is one plus. Adonai Mitchell has caught a lot of first downs, but he's averaged just 2.8 yards after the catch per reception, which is the awful. Here's the rest of the "below 4 college career YAC" club among rd1-3 WRs in the PFF era:

2.6 Josh Palmer
3.5 George Pickens
3.7 Chris Olave
3.8 Miles Boykin
3.8 JJ Arcega-Whiteside
3.9 Alec Pierce
3.9 Dante Pettis
3.9 Tyquan Thornton

Fun fact: Adonai Mitchell's contested catch success rate is second lowest out of this group, ahead of only Thornton (though he could also move ahead of Boykin with a single contested catch).

My current take on these 10 WRs is: Marvin Harrison Jr. & Malik Nabers look great. Next best profiles among these 10 are probably (in some order) Rome Odunze, Troy Franklin, Emeka Egbuka, and Brian Thomas - they each look good from some angles, and at least pretty good overall. Then Xavier Worthy & Xavier Legette, who have some pluses but more warts. At the bottom of the 10, Keon Coleman & Adonai Mitchell don't have much going for them by the numbers I've looked at.

 

[ZWK]

Which WRs have the best numbers in this class, outside of the consensus top 10?

Here are the top remaining guys by my new formula, which uses career totals:
Ladd McConkey
Antwane Wells Jr. *
Jacolby George *
(Jaheim Bell TE)
Jermaine Burton
Tez Johnson

* less than 500 routes

McConkey, Wells, and George all rate above average relative to rd1-3 WRs, while TE Bell, Burton, and Johnson are all close to average (slightly below now, but could improve a bit with some games remaining). Small sample size makes Wells & George a little iffy; for Wells this also only includes his 3rd & 4th seasons of college and not his 2 seasons at FCS school James Madison. All of these guys are over 3.0 AYPRR for their career, led by strong numbers from Tez & Ladd (Burton just crossed that threshhold with a big game against Auburn), most of these WRs (all but Tez Johnson) have good YPT numbers (Burton's are great), and most have been good after the catch with plenty of YAC & MT (Burton is the only one who struggles there).

Here are the top remaining guys by my classic formula:
Jermaine Burton
Javon Baker
Johnny Wilson
Jalen Royals
Malik Washington
Devontez Walker
Ricky White
Jamari Thrash
Tory Horton
Caullin Lacy
Tre Harris
Tahj Washington
CJ Daniels
Jacob Cowing

Unfortunately, there is little overlap between the lists - just one guy, Jermaine Burton. Both formulas love his high YPT. The other guys who make my first list haven't had a huge season (McConkey, for example, has only averaged about 60 YFS/g the past couple years, despite his high YPRR, because he sits out a lot of passing snaps). And none of these guys are great by this formula - all are ranked after Troy Franklin and the rest of the top 6 mentioned in my last post. Still, this makes for a pretty long list of guys who seem worth a look / have some potential. Every guy on this list has at least pretty good / borderline production, except for Johnny Wilson who makes up for his more middling production by being frickin huge.

These lists half-overlap with best-of-the-rest lists that I'm seeing elsewhere. Guys here who I'm seeing as potential rd3-4 types elsewhere:
Johnny Wilson, Ladd McConkey, Devontez Walker, Tory Horton, Antwane Wells Jr., Jermaine Burton. Stretch it a little further and maybe you get Jamari Thrash & Jacob Cowing. Guys who seem to be consensus top 20 WRs who don't make either of my lists: Ja’Lynn Polk, Malachi Corley, Roman Wilson, Brenden Rice, and Jalen McMillan (and maybe J. Michael Sturdivant). Malachi Corley & Roman Wilson do at least have over 3.0 AYPRR.

 

[ZWK]

Jayden Daniels takes home a well-deserved Heisman trophy. He was the most productive QB this season by far - in fact, my era-adjusted numbers have it as the second most productive season in my database (2008-2023) behind only Kyler Murray 2018 (for now; still waiting on his bowl game). It was one of the best passing efficiency seasons that we've seen (e.g., second best by yards per attempt), and he ran for a hundred yards a game on top of that (slightly less if you count sacks as rushes, slightly more if you don't). Daniels is a fifth year senior who had never previously produced anywhere close to this, especially as a passer, and he had a great supporting cast, which are reasons to be less excited about him. But I'm still pretty excited about him as an NFL prospect, and even moreso for fantasy. This Athletic article on his use of VR in training is one possibility for how he managed to improve so much this year. My initial thought is that's probably good news for his prospects, if that technology played a big role for him, especially if he can keep using it going forward.

Another LSU note: According to PFF, 74 passes have been thrown to Brian Thomas Jr. this season, 15 of them have gone for touchdowns, and 14 have fallen incomplete. If the season ended today, that would make Thomas the first WR in the PFF era with 35+ targets and at least as many touchdowns as incompletions, and it would give him the most targets of any player with TDs >= incompletions (the current high is RB Jeremy McNichols 2015 with 56 targets for 6 TDs & 5 incompletions). We'll see if he keeps it up through one more game. 2020 Chris Olave was on pace to have matching touchdowns & incompletions right up until the national championship game - he ended up with 59 targets for 7 TDs & 9 incompletions. Boise St. WR Shane Williams-Rhodes 2014 and Georgia TE Brock Bowers 2021 are the only players to come within 2 of a TD-incompletion tie on 70+ targets.

This is a Jayden Daniels stat as well as a Brian Thomas Jr. stat.

 

[Max Power]

Brian Thomas Jr. is very impressive. He gets overshadowed by Nabers, but he is rising up my board.

 

[Boston]

Brian Thomas Jr. is very impressive. He gets overshadowed by Nabers, but he is rising up my board.

Sounds kind of similar to a couple of other LSU WRs a few years ago in Chase and Jefferson.

 

[ZWK]

Caleb Williams: highly regarded QB with 3 very good seasons, though no absolutely huge seasons. That description also fits Trevor Lawrence, 3 years ago. Every single one of Williams's (and Lawrence's) seasons were good enough to meet the bar I've set for "did this guy ever have a good season"; on the other hand, the majority of QBs who've been drafted #1 overall have a more productive best season than Williams (or Lawrence) did. That's enough for me to be on board the "yeah, this guy's a good prospect". But on the question of whether he's a better QB prospect than we see most years (e.g. meaningfully better than Young & Stroud last year), I'm going to need to do more in-depth analysis than I've done so far, or else just follow the herd.

Drake Maye: Maye has had zero very good seasons, by my production formula. It is especially down on his red zone performance, where he has thrown a TD on just 22.4% of his career attempts (36/161), which is below average (25.3% of all red zone passes by FBS teams have gone for touchdowns over the past 2 seasons). Similarly, UNC has just been averageish (54th percentile) at converting red zone possessions into touchdowns over the past 2 years, with a 62.7% RZ TD rate (79/126) vs. 61.6% for the median FBS team. Red zone performance seems important because that's a place where the windows are tighter so it puts more pressure on the quarterback to execute, or to get creative & make something happen. Other bottom-line production stats are a bit higher on Maye than mine, but still mostly don't love him (e.g., he's been 14th & 10th in QBR; Caleb Williams has been 11th, 5th, and 4th). The one stat where Maye really shines is PFF's Big Time Throw rate - 8.4% of his passes have been Big Time Throws, which is most in this draft class and 97th percentile relative to the past 8 QB draft classes (only Malik Willis, Josh Allen, and Justin Fields were higher). PFF grades are also pretty high on Maye. Justin Herbert is another toolsy guy who had a lot of Big Time Throws (3rd behind Willis & Allen for his best season in BTT rate, even though his career avg wasn't as high); he's a plausible comp for Maye.

So Maye has more question marks than Williams, but some good signs. I'd currently take Williams over Maye. And it seems possible that, by draft time, Daniels will be in the conversation with those two rather than competing to be best of the rest behind them.

 

[ZWK]

Brian Thomas Jr. is very impressive. He gets overshadowed by Nabers, but he is rising up my board.

Yeah, I'm high on him too. The whole LSU trio, really. I currently have Nabers as WR2 and in the same tier as Harrison, Thomas WR6 and in the same tier as the guys ahead of him, and Daniels QB3 and (at least for fantasy) closer to the guys ahead of him than the guys behind him.

 

[ZWK]

Here is career Big Time Throw Rate (a PFF stat) for a bunch of draft eligible quarterbacks, along with a bunch of quarterbacks who have been successful in the NFL (or seem to be heading that way). This stat has been more predictive of NFL success than most other stats I've looked at, which doesn't mean that it's really predictive on its own but is a sign that it's relevant. In parentheses I've put each QB's max season in BTT rate, min 200 attempts, which has been about as predictive of NFL success as the career average. (In some cases the max season is lower than the player's career average, if they had low-attempt seasons with a great BTT rate.)

9.2% Josh Allen (10.6% max)
8.4% Drake Maye (8.4% max)
8.1% Jalen Milroe (9.2% max)
7.4% Tua Tagovailoa (8.7% max)
7.2% Trevor Lawrence (7.1% max)
7.0% Joe Burrow (7.5% max)
6.7% C.J. Stroud (7.0% max)
6.7% Caleb Williams (6.6% max)
6.5% Kyler Murray (7.3% max)
6.5% Justin Herbert (9.2% max)
6.4% J.J. McCarthy (6.1% max)
6.4% Michael Penix Jr. (10.3% max)
6.4% Jared Goff (6.4% max)
6.3% Jordan Travis (7.1% max)
6.1% Deshaun Watson (6.7% max)
6.0% Patrick Mahomes (6.6% max)
5.9% Sam Hartman (7.8% max)
[5.7% avg drafted QB (6.4% max)]
5.7% Joe Milton III (3.3% max)
5.4% Jordan Love (6.4% max)
5.4% KJ Jefferson (5.7% max)
5.3% Shedeur Sanders (5.0% max)
5.1% Spencer Rattler (9.4% max)
5.0% Jalen Hurts (5.1% max)
4.9% Quinn Ewers (6.3% max)
4.9% Michael Pratt (6.5% max)
4.8% Dak Prescott (5.1% max)
4.8% Jayden Daniels (8.4% max)
4.6% Carson Beck (4.0% max)
4.6% Bo Nix (5.0% max)
4.4% Brock Purdy (8.3% max)
4.2% Lamar Jackson (4.7% max)

Looking at the low end: Lamar Jackson, Prescott, and Hurts are the only 3 good NFL QBs who were below average in both career BTT rate and max season BTT rate; it may be relevant that two of the three are amazing runners. Bad sign for Bo Nix to also be down there, especially since he's not close to their level as a runner. Jayden Daniels also down there in career BTT rate, but his best season (2023) is great and he is a great runner, so as big a concern.

Looking at the high end: Drake Maye really shines here, as I mentioned earlier, as does Jalen Milroe, but word is that Milroe is staying at Alabama next year. Michael Penix Jr.'s peak season is great, but that was on just 220 attempts at Indiana in 2020 (barely over the cutoff I picked) so not as impressive as it looks at first glance.

 

[(HULK)]

Any thoughts on Jerry Rice's kid?

 

[Soulfly3]

hey @ZWK - completing my own list and looks similar to yours.... but for top 3 arguments, I currently have it harrison/nabers/bowers...

and slowly nabers creeping and potentially overatking harrison.

but point is... would you see it that way as top 3 right now too? (im admittedly "low" on the RBs this yr)

 

[Ilov80s]

hey @ZWK - completing my own list and looks similar to yours.... but for top 3 arguments, I currently have it harrison/nabers/bowers...

and slowly nabers creeping and potentially overatking harrison.

but point is... would you see it that way as top 3 right now too? (im admittedly "low" on the RBs this yr)

The RB class is rough this year.

 

[Soulfly3]

hey @ZWK - completing my own list and looks similar to yours.... but for top 3 arguments, I currently have it harrison/nabers/bowers...

and slowly nabers creeping and potentially overatking harrison.

but point is... would you see it that way as top 3 right now too? (im admittedly "low" on the RBs this yr)

The RB class is rough this year.

someone will emerge and be good. maybe more than 1 guy. but I could not for the life of me tell you who it'll be.
for that, i'm "avoiding" til rnd 2/3 of rookie drafts

 

[Ilov80s]

hey @ZWK - completing my own list and looks similar to yours.... but for top 3 arguments, I currently have it harrison/nabers/bowers...

and slowly nabers creeping and potentially overatking harrison.

but point is... would you see it that way as top 3 right now too? (im admittedly "low" on the RBs this yr)

The RB class is rough this year.

someone will emerge and be good. maybe more than 1 guy. but I could not for the life of me tell you who it'll be.
for that, i'm "avoiding" til rnd 2/3 of rookie drafts

For sure but it’s a weak weak class. Just makes the young RBs in the NFL right now even more valuable.

 

[ZWK]

PFF has released a new Game Athleticism Rating (GAR), which aggregates "various metrics PFF computes for every player on every play, such as speeds, accelerations and changes of direction" into a single overall metric, which gets adjusted for the player's height & weight and compared to other players at the same position.

They share the percentile rating of several WR prospects in this class (this is each player's highest-GAR season):

Malik Nabers, LSU — 99th percentile
Adonai Mitchell, Texas — 99th
Xavier Worthy, Texas —99th
Xavier Legette, South Carolina — 99th
Rome Odunze, Washington — 98th
Marvin Harrison Jr., Ohio State — 96th
Emeka Egbuka, Ohio State — 93rd
Keon Coleman, Florida State — 93rd
Troy Franklin, Oregon — 92nd
Johnny Wilson, Florida State — 91st
Malachi Corley, Western Kentucky — 81st

The way that these are scaled, 80th percentile is not good for a prospect. They say (in a section which I believe is describing which players from the 2020-2022 draft classes have become NFL starters) that 28 of 33 WR starters at 80th percentile GAR or better, with 20 of 33 at 90th percentile or better.

My guess is that this list is not a leaderboard, and WRs who aren't on the list (like Brian Thomas Jr., Ladd McConkey, and Devontez Walker) have an unknown GAR which might be higher than some of the guys who are on the list.

They also highlight rookies Sam LaPorta and Puka Nacua as both having 99th percentile GAR (I believe that was their best college season, rather than their GAR for their NFL rookie season).

 

[ZWK]

Another LSU note: According to PFF, 74 passes have been thrown to Brian Thomas Jr. this season, 15 of them have gone for touchdowns, and 14 have fallen incomplete. If the season ended today, that would make Thomas the first WR in the PFF era with 35+ targets and at least as many touchdowns as incompletions, and it would give him the most targets of any player with TDs >= incompletions (the current high is RB Jeremy McNichols 2015 with 56 targets for 6 TDs & 5 incompletions). We'll see if he keeps it up through one more game. 2020 Chris Olave was on pace to have matching touchdowns & incompletions right up until the national championship game - he ended up with 59 targets for 7 TDs & 9 incompletions. Boise St. WR Shane Williams-Rhodes 2014 and Georgia TE Brock Bowers 2021 are the only players to come within 2 of a TD-incompletion tie on 70+ targets.

Brian Thomas Jr. caught 2 touchdowns in the bowl game against Wisconsin, but he was also targeted on 5 incompletions. As with Olave in 2020, the postseason pushes him out of "TDs >= incompletions" territory. He ends the season with a -2 "TDs minus incompletions" score (17 TD & 19 inc on 87 targets), joining 2014 Shane Williams-Rhodesand (7 TD & 8 inc on 76 tgt) and 2021 Brock Bowers (13 TD & 15 inc on 71 tgt). Thomas does have the highest ADOT of those three (13.9 vs. 8.8 for Bowers and 3.0 for Williams-Rrhodesand).

 

[ZWK]

Malik Nabers has such a clean profile. Great best season, great career stats, great efficiency. Tons of big plays. Jumped off the screen when I watched him, and more tape-based evaluators love him too. Three-year player who contributed as a true freshman (40 yfs per game). Produced against great competition in the SEC. Has the size and athleticism to straightforwardly translate to the NFL. Won in lots of different ways, with good stats at every depth. Good after the catch (great missed tackle rate, though his yards after the catch per reception were only a bit above average), good on contested catches (his QB clearly trusted him to make a play on the ball in one-on-one situations on the outside), and I suspect that Reception Perception data will show he got open at a good rate on a variety of routes (though still waiting on those numbers to get released). Among the various stats I look at to evaluate receivers, there are none where he is below average (relative to the college stats of other rd1-3 WRs). And plenty where he's great, including the most important ones. It's rare for there to be a WR prospect like thatto find a WR like that.

With every other receiver in this class I can at least find something to nitpick. Marvin Harrison Jr. also a great profile over all, another 3-year WR in a top conference with big numbers and great efficiency (slightly different career arc - Harrison's 2nd & 3rd years were both great, but neither was as big as Nabers's 2023). But Harrison hasn't done much after the catch (22nd percentile YAC/rec & 16th percentile MT/rec), a lot of his catchable targets have been contested (31%) which is generally a negative sign about how reliably a player gets open (see last year's list led by Quentin Johnston 34%), and thin WRs have generally had a worse track record (though there have been some great ones, and BMI has seemed less important in recent years than it was a decade ago). Still a great profile, but there are *some* negatives on it. Rome Odunze is a 4th year player whose career arc was basically one year behind Nabers's (Odunze barely played his true freshman year), his career stats like YPRR and YPT aren't as good (mainly due to poor numbers in his second season, including awful YPT), and like Harrison he has been below average after the catch (22nd percentile career YAC/rec and 39th percentile MT/rec as of the end of the regular season). And there are other things (and some of the same things) with the other WRs.

So Nabers vs. Harrison as WR1 seems like a close call, and narrower than the gap between WR2 and WR3. Both look great by my two WR rating formulas; one has Harrison at #1, the other Nabers. Other talent evaluators (including tape-watchers and draft forecasters) seem to favor Harrison, and of course Harrison also has the better father (2nd best WR dad in the class), so if I had to draft one today I think I'd follow the crowd and take Harrison. But if I was in a bubble doing my own evaluation, based on numbers and my own video-watching, I think I would have Nabers first. And taking everything into account I'm still super high on Nabers; as a Bears fan I was dreaming of a Caleb Williams - Malike Nabers draft before they won their last couple games and their own pick fell down the draft order. We'll see if I change my mind over the course of the draft season; some evaluators like Matt Waldman have Nabers over Harrison and it may be that Harrison's apparent consensus lead will slip away if opinions become based more on close scrutiny of the 2023 season rather than older news like parentage and 2022 production.

 

[ZWK]

hey @ZWK - completing my own list and looks similar to yours.... but for top 3 arguments, I currently have it harrison/nabers/bowers...

and slowly nabers creeping and potentially overatking harrison.

but point is... would you see it that way as top 3 right now too? (im admittedly "low" on the RBs this yr)

I think I agree.

In leagues that are superflex and TE premium, IMO there's a really clear top 6 right now, where it's tricky to rank within the top 6 and there's a meaningful gap after them. That would be 3 QBs (Caleb Williams, Drake Maye, Jayden Daniels), 2 WRs (Marvin Harrison Jr., Malik Nabers), and 1 TE (Brock Bowers).

If it's a 1 QB league, then obviously the QBs drop out of that tier.

If it's not TE premium, does Bowers drop out of that tier? I'm not sure; I think he's still third but he might be closer to the guy after him (probably Odunze) than the guy in front of him.

 

[ZWK]

Any thoughts on Jerry Rice's kid?

Haven't looked at him that closely; main initial thoughts are that his numbers aren't that good and it's funny that Marvin Harrison Jr. ranks second in the WR class in "best dad".

 

[ZWK]

Michael Penix Jr., Bo Nix, and JJ McCarthy are generally considered the QB4-6 in this class (in some order), potential first rounders or else likely day 2 picks.

All 3 meet the "has he ever had a good season" bar. By the QB efficiency stat I've been using, this year Nix was 2nd, McCarthy was 3rd, and Penix was 9th. By PFF grade, Nix was 2nd, Penix was 7th, and McCarthy was 9th. By QBR, Nix was 2nd, McCarthy was 3rd, and Penix was 6th. (Jayden Daniels was 1st in all three stats.)

The big negative in the production profile for Penix & Nix is their age and career arc. Penix is a 6th year senior, Nix a 5th year senior. Neither was productive early in their career at another school (Indiana & Auburn), both changed schools to a much more favorable situation (with Washington's elite receiving corps and Oregon's QB-friendly system) and then started putting up much better numbers. Both players' career efficiency numbers are pretty mediocre, even their 2022 & 2023 numbers are good. Generally it's a bad sign to only produce big at an age where some of your peers have already left for the NFL. Though that seems less true at QB than at other positions (see Joe Burrow; other 5+ year college QBs include Russell Wilson, Matt Ryan, Dak Prescott, Kirk Cousins, Ryan Tannehill, and Eli Manning). Maybe part of the story is that many QBs never develop high levels of poise/polish/football intelligence, so if a college QB has that it's a good sign even if it takes until his 5th or 6th year. If so, that's good news for Penix who is generally praised for his polish; not so much for Nix whose scouting report looks different (though Prescott & Tannehill's scouting reports looked more like Nix's).

One clear positive for both Penix and Nix is their sack avoidance. Both have low sack rates, and low pressure-to-sack rates (meaning they usually avoid sacks even when pressured). Penix's career pressure-to-sack rate of 6.5% is the lowest among all drafted QBs in the PFF era; the chance that Penix was sacked on a play where he was pressured was lower than the chance that (say) Joe Burrow was sacked on a dropback, period (6.8%). Bo Nix's numbers aren't quite as extreme, but they're still very good, and scrambling QBs tend to get sacked more so the fact that Nix avoided sacks so well while still being a productive scrambler is a good sign.

Besides age, the clearest negative for Penix is his lack of rushing and for Nix it's his low Big Time Throw rate.

The big negative in JJ McCarthy's production profile is the lack of volume. I have mostly been looking efficiency stats, but Michigan ran the ball a lot and didn't rely on McCarthy much. This is bad in two ways. First, if he's so good then why didn't the team rely on him more? If Harbaugh didn't trust him to throw the ball more, why should we trust him as a prospect? Second, maybe he got to throw in favorable situations, taking advantage of defenses that were focused on stopping the run. Two stats that speak in favor of McCarthy on this second question: he was one of the most effective quarterbacks in the country at converting 3rd & long (Michigan was 1st in the country at the percentage of 3rd & 7+ passes that went for first downs), and he ran play action less often than other top quarterbacks. And on the first question, game scripts seem like at least a partial explanation: Michigan rarely trailed all season. If he was staying in college and entering the transfer portal, I imagine that plenty of high-volume passing schools would be happy to bring McCarthy in as his starter and have him sling it a ton. How well would he do?

On the whole I don't have really strong bottom line views on these 3 guys. More of a "yeah, maybe, I could see it." For NFL value, at this point I'd probably rank them Penix-McCarthy-Nix, partly based on stuff I've covered here, partly just based on impressions from watching them. Though for fantasy, Penix's lack of running is a negative, so maybe I put him behind McCarthy.

 

[ZWK]

Here are the WRs with the highest contested rate in this class, along with WRs from the 2018-23 classes for comparison.

The number here is contested rate, which is contested targets divided by catchable targets.

The sort is by contested rate over expected, which adjusts for the fact that (e.g.) deep sideline throws are contested more often, and screens are rarely contested.

The players included are all rd1-3 WRs from 2018-23, plus other guys from 2023. The data covers the 2017-23 seasons, so they don't cover the complete careers of some of the guys from the earlier draft classes.

Last year's posts on this were here and here.

Contested Rate
51% JJ Arcega-Whiteside
42% Nico Collins
42% Josh Palmer
33% N'Keal Harry
36% Johnny Wilson
33% Keon Coleman
38% Alec Pierce
36% Denzel Mims
34% Quentin Johnston
30% Michael Wilson
30% Jake Bobo
37% Dontayvion Wicks
27% Deebo Samuel
31% Theo Wease
31% David Bell
32% Courtland Sutton
30% Jalen Reagor
28% Michael Gallup
31% Marvin Harrison Jr.
31% Terrace Marshall Jr.
30% De'Corian Clark
33% Miles Boykin
31% Tee Higgins
30% Cedric Tillman
29% Charlie Jones
28% Jayden Reed
26% Bryan Edwards

A lot of the guys on this list have had trouble getting open in the NFL, especially the guys near the top. Quentin Johnston's rookie struggles are a sign of that, though Nico Collins's breakout year offers hope.

Some concern for all 5 guys who make this list, especially the Florida State boys Johnny Wilson & Keon Coleman.

Next highest guys this year are Ja'Lynn Polk, Brenden Rice, and Malik Washington, though I don't have much concern about the stat once you get down into that range.

 

[ZWK]

5 WRs in this class had a high drop rate:

14% J.Michael Sturdivant
12% Kaden Prather
13% Johnny Wilson
11% Javon Baker
9% Jacob Cowing

These are sorted by drop rate over expected (since, e.g., screens are dropped much less often than deep passes).

Another negative for Johnny Wilson. Cowing is just a bit worse than average, so not too terrible.

Here were drop rates for last year's class.

 

[ZWK]

Malik Nabers has such a clean profile. Great best season, great career stats, great efficiency. Tons of big plays. Jumped off the screen when I watched him, and more tape-based evaluators love him too. Three-year player who contributed as a true freshman (40 yfs per game). Produced against great competition in the SEC. Has the size and athleticism to straightforwardly translate to the NFL. Won in lots of different ways, with good stats at every depth. Good after the catch (great missed tackle rate, though his yards after the catch per reception were only a bit above average), good on contested catches (his QB clearly trusted him to make a play on the ball in one-on-one situations on the outside), and I suspect that Reception Perception data will show he got open at a good rate on a variety of routes (though still waiting on those numbers to get released).

Matt Harmon has shared some of his initial WR charting for the 2024 class on his discord (just sharing 3 games worth of data vs coverages, not by route). Nabers has pretty good numbers, but so far Harrison's are better and Odunze's are even better than that.

 

[Soulfly3]

Malik Nabers has such a clean profile. Great best season, great career stats, great efficiency. Tons of big plays. Jumped off the screen when I watched him, and more tape-based evaluators love him too. Three-year player who contributed as a true freshman (40 yfs per game). Produced against great competition in the SEC. Has the size and athleticism to straightforwardly translate to the NFL. Won in lots of different ways, with good stats at every depth. Good after the catch (great missed tackle rate, though his yards after the catch per reception were only a bit above average), good on contested catches (his QB clearly trusted him to make a play on the ball in one-on-one situations on the outside), and I suspect that Reception Perception data will show he got open at a good rate on a variety of routes (though still waiting on those numbers to get released).

Matt Harmon has shared some of his initial WR charting for the 2024 class on his discord (just sharing 3 games worth of data vs coverages, not by route). Nabers has pretty good numbers, but so far Harrison's are better and Odunze's are even better than that.

I've grown to really, REALLY like Odunze... I'm genuinely starting to get confused about how to rank the top 3 guys. So much so that's it's a 3-sided coinflip almost (I try my best to avoid name/pedigree, otherwise I know Harrison by far has the most value... But I don't care about that)

 

[Wigglytuff's Gruff]

I've grown to really, REALLY like Odunze... I'm genuinely starting to get confused about how to rank the top 3 guys. So much so that's it's a 3-sided coinflip almost (I try my best to avoid name/pedigree, otherwise I know Harrison by far has the most value... But I don't care about that)

Not gone into it at the depth ZWK (who is excellent by the way, love this thread) and likely you have, but I don't think I have BTJ all that much lower than these three guys either.

Might be a bit of bias on my part looking for a legit option with my 4th overall pick (along with the 1 and 3) but he seems to have everything you'd want an alpha to possess.

 

[Soulfly3]

I've grown to really, REALLY like Odunze... I'm genuinely starting to get confused about how to rank the top 3 guys. So much so that's it's a 3-sided coinflip almost (I try my best to avoid name/pedigree, otherwise I know Harrison by far has the most value... But I don't care about that)

Not gone into it at the depth ZWK (who is excellent by the way, love this thread) and likely you have, but I don't think I have BTJ all that much lower than these three guys either.

Might be a bit of bias on my part looking for a legit option with my 4th overall pick (along with the 1 and 3) but he seems to have everything you'd want an alpha to possess.

I definitely like him, and has him as my #5 in my list, behind the big 3 WRs and bowers.
The only thing I don't LOVE about him, is most of his plays are just burning defenders deep. his route tree is/was limited. not that he can't do that in the NFL, but it'll be harder... and who will his QB be? Josh allen? BEAUTY. someone else, maybe not so much

but his size and speed are delicious.

 

[bostonfred]

Mhj vs nabers vs odunze vs keon

 

[Tau837]

 

[ZWK]

Career contested catch rate for this WR class.

The sample size for these is often pretty small, so if a couple plays had gone differently then some of these numbers could be pretty different. In parentheses, I've given a range that covers what their contested catch rate would've been if they had caught two fewer or two more of their contested catch opportunities. If 47% (the average rate) is somewhere within that range, that's a sign that the player easily could've come in on the other side of average.

59% Brock Bowers (54% - 64%)
57% Malik Washington (53% - 60%)
56% Javon Baker (51% - 62%)
56% Moose Muhammad III (44% - 69%)
53% Roman Wilson (41% - 65%)
53% Ladd McConkey (42% - 63%)
53% Jermaine Burton (47% - 58%)
52% Marvin Harrison Jr. (49% - 56%)
52% Rome Odunze (48% - 56%)
51% Ja'Lynn Polk (47% - 55%)
50% Malik Nabers (46% - 54%)
49% De'Corian Clark (44% - 53%)
49% Brenden Rice (43% - 54%)
48% Kaden Prather (42% - 55%)
47% Brian Thomas Jr. (42% - 53%)
[47% Average rd1-3 WR]
47% Theo Wease (42% - 51%)
46% J.Michael Sturdivant (39% - 54%)
46% Keon Coleman (42% - 50%)
45% Devontez Walker (39% - 52%)
45% Ricky Pearsall (39% - 52%)
43% Adonai Mitchell (37% - 50%)
43% Xavier Legette (37% - 49%)
43% Ainias Smith (38% - 48%)
42% Johnny Wilson (38% - 45%)
38% Troy Franklin (32% - 43%)
36% Jacob Cowing (34% - 39%)
36% Tez Johnson (28% - 44%)
34% Xavier Worthy (30% - 39%)
33% Jamari Thrash (28% - 37%)
29% Dominic Lovett (14% - 43%)
27% Malachi Corley (22% - 31%)
20% Jalen McMillan (12% - 28%)

Johnny Wilson's low rate stands out to me here, especially since he had the highest contested rate. Also not great for Keon Coleman & Theo Wease to just be averageish here, given their high contested rates.

 

[Soulfly3]

Mhj vs nabers vs odunze vs keon

Not to be a total dink, but Keon has absolutely no business in the convo with those other 3. He may end up a fine player (I don't see it, personally)... But even if he does, he isn't in their league.

I'm not even sure why they added him to that list? There's 3,4,5 WRs easily ahead of him that would've made more sense in that comp. Confusing, but all but confirms he's not a top prospect.

 

[ZWK]

Here are the pass rushers who have a good combination of pass rushing production and athleticism. Pass rushing production here is based on a variant of PFF's pass rush win rate that I threw together, which uses a lower standard for DTs than for EDGE rusher (you can find data for individual players on pages like this, all linked from here). Good athleticism is based on Relative Athletic Score (just because that's easily available).

The number in parentheses is the player's consensus draft board rank from mock draft database.

EDGE Laiatu Latu, UCLA (17)
EDGE Jared Verse, Florida State (13)
DT Braden Fiske, Florida State (45)

EDGE Dallas Turner, Alabama (7)
EDGE Chop Robinson, Penn State (28)
DT Byron Murphy, Texas (16)
DT Ruke Orhorhoro, Clemson (62)

DT Michael Hall Jr., Ohio State (66)
EDGE Chris Braswell, Alabama (51)
EDGE Gabriel Murphy, UCLA (124)
DT Gabe Hall, Baylor (162)
EDGE Adisa Isaac, Penn State (74)

EDGE Grayson Murphy, UCLA (204)
EDGE Mohamed Kamara, Colorado State (136)
EDGE/DT Darius Robinson, Missouri (31)
EDGE Marshawn Kneeland, Western Michigan (65)
EDGE Cedric Johnson, Mississippi (189)
DT Maason Smith, LSU (71)
DT DeWayne Carter, Duke (111)

I haven't used these particular stats for previous draft classes so I don't know how they compare, but within this draft class these four tiers are roughly Great, Good, Slightly Above Average, Slightly Below Average relative to other players in this class. The guys in the top 3 tiers are at least averageish at both pass rushing production and athleticism; the last tier has some guys who are good at one and bad at the other.

Two players have good production but don't have RAS scores:
EDGE Bralen Trice, Washington (50)
DT Jer'Zhan Newton, Illinois (25)

Better production than athleticism: Laiatu Latu, Byron Murphy, Chris Braswell, Grayson Murphy, Mohamed Kamara, DeWayne Carter, probably Bralen Trice, probably Jer'Zhan Newton
Better athleticism than production: Braden Fiske, Chop Robinson, Ruke Orhorhoro, Marshawn Kneeland, Cedric Johnson, Maason Smith

This all doesn't adjust for level of competition, or for age/experience, or for any context besides whether the player is listed as an "EDGE" or "DT".

 

[ZWK]

Here's a ranking of how reliably 2021-24 WR prospects got open in college, based on my interpretation of Matt Harmon's Reception Perception data. All the charting by route & by coverage is Harmon's work, the attempt to turn it into a single ranking is mine.

2024 Rome Odunze
2021 DeVonta Smith
2022 Chris Olave
2021 Jaylen Waddle
2024 Marvin Harrison Jr.

2022 Garrett Wilson

2024 Jermaine Burton
2022 Jahan Dotson
2023 Jaxon Smith-Njigba
2021 Elijah Moore
2024 Ricky Pearsall
2021 Rashod Bateman
2024 Adonai Mitchell
2022 Drake London
2022 Skyy Moore

2024 Ja'Lynn Polk
2024 Malik Nabers
2024 Javon Baker
2021 Ja'Marr Chase
2022 Jameson Williams
2023 Zay Flowers
2024 Ladd McConkey
2023 Jayden Reed
2023 Josh Downs
2022 George Pickens
2024 Malik Washington *

2024 Brian Thomas Jr.
2024 Xavier Worthy
2021 Dyami Brown
2024 Troy Franklin
2023 Jordan Addison
2022 Jalen Tolbert
2024 Ainias Smith *
2024 Johnny Wilson *
2023 Quentin Johnston
2023 Puka Nacua
2021 Terrace Marshall
2023 Marvin Mims

2023 Tank Dell
2023 Cedric Tillman
2024 Jalen McMillan
2022 Alec Pierce
2022 Treylon Burks
2021 Amari Rodgers
2021 Tylan Wallace
2023 Jonathan Mingo
2023 A.T. Perry
2024 Xavier Legette

2023 Michael Wilson
2024 Malachi Corley *
2023 Parker Washington
2021 Rondale Moore
2021 Amon-Ra St. Brown
2024 Keon Coleman

2023 Xavier Hutchinson
2023 Charlie Jones
2023 Jalin Hyatt
2022 Justyn Ross
2022 John Metchie
2024 Roman Wison
2023 Kayshon Boutte
2024 Brenden Rice *

2024 Luke McCaffrey *
2021 Kadarius Toney
2023 Rakim Jarrett

2023 Rashee Rice
2024 Devontez Walker *

* small sample

Last year's thread has some more info about how I calculated this.

So far there has been a lot of NFL success among the top tier, a decent success rate in the top half-ish through Tank Dell, and just a couple successes below that (Amon-Ra St. Brown & Rashee Rice, both slot guys). In this class Odunze & Harrison are in that top tier, Nabers, McConkey, and Brian Thomas are in that top half, and Keon Coleman is in the lower portion.

Harmon's complete charting includes more textured info than this ranking, e.g. Keon Coleman was better against zone than against man, like ARSB & Rice, and might have some potential as a big slot.

Edited (4/8/24 - 4/25/24): Added some more players whose numbers have been released, including some with pretty good numbers and some with awful numbers

 

[ZWK]

Here's a look at how this year's top 8 quarterback prospects performed under pressure, compared to the 20 quarterbacks who were drafted in the first round in 2018-2023.

Data from PFF since 2014, and I've put most of these stats in this spreadsheet.


First stat is career Sack Rate under pressure, aka pressure to sack rate. Penix is best in class - as I mentioned earlier he was sacked on 6.5% of the plays where he was pressured. That is also better than all 20 first round quarterbacks, so it's 100th percentile relative to that sample, which is why there is a (100) by Penix in this list. Nix is 90th percentile: better than 18/20 of the past 1st round QBs. I have also included the names of the 4 best and the 4 worst past rd1 quarterbacks on this stat, which could help give a very rough sense of how much this stat matters and what sorts of players are good vs. bad at it. (If you want to see more past quarterbacks you can find them in the spreadsheet.)

Sack Rate
6.5% Michael Penix Jr. (100)
9.9% Anthony Richardson
10.7% Mac Jones
11.4% Bo Nix (90)
12.4% C.J. Stroud
12.6% Josh Rosen
14.3% J.J. McCarthy (65)
18.1% Drake Maye (40)
18.9% Caleb Williams (30)
20.2% Lamar Jackson
20.3% Spencer Rattler (15)
21.6% Zach Wilson
21.9% Joe Burrow
23.3% Michael Pratt (5)
23.6% Justin Fields
24.3% Jayden Daniels (0)

Jayden Daniels all the way at the bottom in pressure-to-sack rate, right below Justin Fields. But Joe Burrow & Lamar Jackson were among the worst of past first rounders, so maybe not a death sentence to a player's career.


Next, a stat I'm calling Wasted Play Rate under pressure. Wasted Plays here are sacks + throwaways + hit-as-threw + batted balls. This takes sacks and also adds on the plays under pressure which are technically scored as pass attempts, but which have almost no chance of resulting in a completion and which (in PFF scoring) do not count as an "aimed pass".

Wasted Play Rate
21.3% Michael Penix Jr. (100)
21.3% Mac Jones
21.9% J.J. McCarthy (95)
22.3% Dwayne Haskins
22.4% C.J. Stroud
24.0% Jordan Love
29.3% Bo Nix (45)
30.0% Caleb Williams (35)
32.6% Jayden Daniels (20)
32.8% Daniel Jones
32.9% Zach Wilson
33.5% Justin Fields
33.7% Drake Maye (5)
34.0% Bryce Young
34.7% Spencer Rattler (0)
36.5% Michael Pratt (0)

Penix again the best, McCarthy elite here when he was only above average at sack avoidance, Jayden Daniels fairly bad but not as close to the bottom, Drake Maye worse than Daniels. The worst past quarterbacks at this are worse than the guys with the bad sack rate, though if I'd included the 6 worst past QBs that would add Kyler Murray (31.4%) and Joe Burrow (30.9%).


Next, a stat that I'm calling Potentially Positive Play Rate under pressure. This is completions + drops + scrambles. These are plays that gained yards, or almost gained yards. This along with Wasted Plays cover almost all types of plays under pressure; the only exception are off-target aimed passes; I'm not counting those inaccurate throws as "Wasted" or as "Potentially Positive".

Potentially Positive Play Rate
56.7% J.J. McCarthy (100)
55.7% Mac Jones
54.7% Kyler Murray
52.5% Jayden Daniels (90)
52.1% Baker Mayfield
51.9% Tua Tagovailoa
49.8% Bo Nix (55)
49.0% Drake Maye (50)
48.2% Caleb Williams (45)
46.5% Spencer Rattler (40)
46.3% Michael Pratt (40)
44.7% Michael Penix Jr. (20)
44.4% Anthony Richardson
44.2% Josh Rosen
43.1% Daniel Jones
39.7% Jordan Love

JJ McCarthy at the top again, Jayden Daniels near the top at this one after being at or near the bottom on the others, Michael Penix last in class on this one. Mac Jones dominating these under pressure stats, which shows that they aren't everything. Anthony Richardson, like Michael Penix, is near the bottom here despite his great sack avoidance - both had a lot of off-target aimed passes.


Final stat is First Down rate under pressure. This includes both passing first downs and scrambling first downs, on plays where the QB was pressured.

First Down Rate
37.2% Kyler Murray
36.9% Mac Jones
34.9% Sam Darnold
31.7% J.J. McCarthy (85)
30.5% Baker Mayfield
29.3% Bo Nix (65)
28.8% Caleb Williams (65)
28.5% Drake Maye (65)
26.2% Jayden Daniels (55)
24.5% Spencer Rattler (30)
24.0% Michael Penix Jr. (30)
22.7% Josh Rosen
22.6% Michael Pratt (15)
21.3% Daniel Jones
21.3% Kenny Pickett
21.0% Jordan Love

JJ McCarthy again first in class. Not quite on Mac Jones's level, though, at this stat or overall under pressure. This class was not at the extremes on this stat. Jordan Love again the bright spot among past QBs who lacked positive plays under pressure.


This last one, Scramble Rate, is more of a style stat than a performance stat. I sorted the other stats good-to-bad, this one I'll just sort high-to-low.

Scramble Rate
25.0% Jayden Daniels (100)
19.4% Drake Maye (100)
19.0% Justin Fields
17.2% Lamar Jackson
16.1% Kyler Murray
15.5% Michael Pratt (85)
15.2% Anthony Richardson
13.2% Spencer Rattler (55)
12.5% J.J. McCarthy (50)
12.4% Caleb Williams (50)
12.2% Bo Nix (50)
8.0% Daniel Jones
7.1% C.J. Stroud
6.3% Jordan Love
4.0% Michael Penix Jr. (5)
3.1% Josh Rosen

A lot of scrambling from Jayden Daniels and to a lesser extent Drake Maye. Other guys averageish, except for Penix who rarely scrambled. The past high Scramble Rate guys are the most predictable list in this thread, the low Scramble Rate guys a little harder to predict.


On the whole I'd say that under pressure:
JJ McCarthy was best in class, good to excellent across the board
Michael Penix was great at avoiding negative plays but fairly bad at creating positive plays
Jayden Daniels was just a bit below average on the whole, with tons of sacks & scrambles (which you could see as a warning sign) but plenty of positive plays
Drake Maye had a similar profile to Daniels but generally less extreme, though with an awful Wasted Play Rate (which you could see as a warning sign)
Bo Nix second best on the whole, ranging from averageish to good depending on the stat
Caleb Williams was astoundingly average, between 30th percentile and 65th percentile on all of these stats
Michael Pratt and Spencer Rattler were the worst of this class under pressure, mediocre to awful across the board

 

[Winning IS Everything]

Very good information, thank you! I now see why J.J. McCarthy is shooting up draft boards. I currently draft 1.10, 2.01, 2.02 and 2.03 in my rookie draft and was trying to figure out how to trade up for Caleb, But I may just stand pat and take JJ later on.

 

[Bri]

Excellent
As always

 

[ZWK]

I was looking at a new mix of production stats for this TE class, and got this top 10 in production (among the guys who were invited to the combine)

Brock Bowers


Jaheim Bell
Ja'Tavion Sanders

Cade Stover
Ben Sinnott
Theo Johnson

Tanner McLachlan
Jared Wiley

Dallin Holker
Tip Reiman

This rating is based on 20% receiving volume (various stats, half of which is are best season & half of which are career), 20% receiving efficiency (something like YPT), 20% after the catch performance (mix of YAC & MT), 20% experience (mainly a bonus for early declares, with slight penalties for guys who took more than 4 seasons), 10% hands (drop rate and contested catch rate), and 10% getting open (bad to have lots of contested targets or lots of uncatchable targets). The exact proportions don't make a huge difference in the rankings, e.g. if I double the relative weight of receiving volume then Bell & Sanders flip-flop in tier 2, the next tier break is in front of Theo Johnson instead of after him, and Tip Reiman falls down a tier (just behind Brevyn Spann-Ford).

To highlight a few more specific ratings:

Best receiving volume: Brock Bowers, Ja'Tavion Sanders, Ben Sinnott, Dallin Holker, Cade Stover, Jaheim Bell, Tanner McLachlan

Best receiving efficiency: Brock Bowers, Theo Johnson, Cade Stover, Jaheim Bell, Jared Wiley, Tanner McLachlan, Ben Sinnott, Ja'Tavion Sanders

Best after the catch: Jaheim Bell, Brock Bowers, Cade Stover, Ben Sinnott, Tanner McLachlan, Tip Reiman

Early declares: Brock Bowers, Ja'Tavion Sanders

The top 9 athleticism ratings, using my formula based on the combine and pro day results, are (with 40 times in parentheses):

Theo Johnson (4.57)

Ben Sinnott (4.68)
Tip Reiman (4.64)

Devin Culp (4.47)
Jaheim Bell (4.61)
Jared Wiley (4.62)
Tanner McLachlan (4.61)

Cade Stover (4.65)
Dallin Holker (4.78)


Which are mostly the same names as the top production ratings. The big changes are that Devin Culp made the athleticism list but not the production list, and Ja'Tavion Sanders was high on the production list but didn't make the athleticism list (his 4.69 forty was averageish but his other drills were worse). Also Brock Bowers is missing from the athleticism leaderboard because he didn't test, but he rates amazingly well in measures of on-the-field athleticism: PFF GAS and Reel Analytics IGA.

Other athleticism ratings that I've seen are mostly similarish to mine, but there are some differences. Reel Analytics IGA is significantly higher on the athleticism of Jaheim Bell, Cade Stover, Ja'Tavion Sanders, and AJ Barner (who had a 4.84 pro day 40), and lower on Devin Culp.

If I combine my production rating and my athleticism rating into an overall rating, putting equal weight on each (and guessing at the athleticism for guys who didn't work out), I get this overall numbers-based ranking (I've put expected draft position from MDD in parentheses)

Brock Bowers (10)


Theo Johnson (101)
Ben Sinnott (106)
Jaheim Bell (155)

Tip Reiman (194)
Jared Wiley (130)
Cade Stover (83)
Tanner McLachlan (195)

Ja'Tavion Sanders (53)
Devin Culp (244)
Dallin Holker (163)

Putting some weight on IGA would move Stover and Sanders up a tier, which is closer to predicted draft position. It also moves Bell up to TE2, which is farther from draft order.

There aren't many other TEs in the top 200 on the MDD big board: just AJ Barner (153), Erick All (167), and Brevyn Spann-Ford (189). Erick All didn't get to do athletic testing because of his torn ACL, and he missed much of past 2 seasons with injuries, and also played on low-volume passing offenses and alongside 2nd round TE Luke Schoonmaker, so he seems like a bit more of a wildcard. But he had relatively poor stats across the board (including below average MT & YAC rates), not just a lack of volume, so I'm not that optimistic about him.

Scott Barrett's TE rankings are fairly similar: Brock Bowers, Jaheim Bell, Ja'Tavion Sanders, Cade Stover, Ben Sinnott, Erick All, Theo Johnson, Jared Wiley, Dallin Holker. Which is fairly similar, except for having Erick All up there ahead of Theo Johnson. He also has very good writeups on these players, with more details behind his takes.

Bottom line: Bowers is great. Ja'Tavion Sanders doesn't look that promising - I'd probably take him as my TE2 right now just because of expected draft position & because tape guys like him, but he's not far ahead of TE3. TE3-6 are (in some order) Theo Johnson, Ben Sinnott, Jaheim Bell, and Cade Stover, and they all look fairly promising relative to where I'm generally seeing them in rookie drafts. Wiley TE7 since he's next by EDP and in the next tier in both my & Barrett's lists. Most drafts are unlikely to go beyond TE6 or 7, but next tier (in some order) would be 4 guys at TE8-11. 2 are favored by EDP and make Barrett's list - Erick All & Dallin Holker - and 2 who are in the same tier as Wiley by my numbers: Tip Reiman & Tanner McLachlan. Then AJ Barner TE12 and Devin Culp TE13, which I think covers every name mentioned in this post except for Brevyn Spann-Ford (who is more of a blocker).

 

[ZWK]

Here's a rough take on how I see this year's WR class, compared to where they're being projected by Mock Draft Database.

+ means that I like them more than where they're projected, - means I like them less, = means that it's about right, and a few guys get combinations like =- (similar or slightly less).

3 Marvin Harrison Jr. =
5 Malik Nabers =+
6 Rome Odunze =-
18 Brian Thomas Jr. =
26 Adonai Mitchell -
33 Ladd McConkey =+
34 Xavier Worthy -
37 Troy Franklin =
39 Keon Coleman --
46 Ricky Pearsall -
48 Roman Wilson --
49 Xavier Legette -
59 Malachi Corley -
63 Ja'Lynn Polk -
79 Devontez Walker =
84 Jermaine Burton +
88 Jalen McMillan =
95 Javon Baker +
97 Malik Washington =+
107 Johnny Wilson =+
108 Brenden Rice =-
130 Jamari Thrash =
136 Luke McCaffrey -
145 Ainias Smith =+
149 Jacob Cowing +
187 Cornelius Johnson =?
193 Anthony Gould +
194 Ryan Flournoy =?
201 Tahj Washington +

These are my overall subjective takes, trying to take everything into account.

I had more to say about some of these WRs early in this thread, e.g. 9 of the top 12 here. And I've posted graphs of various stats on Twitter, e.g. here. (Is there a way to attach images in the forum? If there is I could include some of them here.) At some point I'll try to go into more detail on some others, and give updated takes (e.g. I'm higher now than I was then on Odunze & McConkey, and lower on Franklin & Legette). There here are so many of them, though, so I probably won't get to them all.

The rough shape of this class:

Great at the top: 3 elite guys who should go top 10 (Harrison, Nabers, Odunze), including 2 who should be the first non-QBs off the board, and then another clear 1st rounder.

Then 4 guys who belong late 1st to mid 2nd, with McConkey my current favorite of those 4 and Mitchell only in that group because other people like him (I'll probably fade him at cost).

After the top 8 it really opens up, with a bajillion guys who I basically see as 3rd rounders (or late 2nd - early 4th). I kinda like the projected 3rd rounders more than the projected 2nd rounders (it was similar in last year's actual NFL draft). My own analysis would have Jermaine Burton top 10 (ignoring things like projected draft position and reports of character concerns).

Not that many WRs projected in the 110-210 range (just 8 total, which is less than the 12 guys projected 39-107 who I basically see as NFL 3rd rounders), but a few of them have something going for them.

 

[Gatorade]

Here's a rough take on how I see this year's WR class, compared to where they're being projected by Mock Draft Database.

+ means that I like them more than where they're projected, - means I like them less, = means that it's about right, and a few guys get combinations like =- (similar or slightly less).

3 Marvin Harrison Jr. =
5 Malik Nabers =+
6 Rome Odunze =-
18 Brian Thomas Jr. =
26 Adonai Mitchell -
33 Ladd McConkey =+
34 Xavier Worthy -
37 Troy Franklin =
39 Keon Coleman --
46 Ricky Pearsall -
48 Roman Wilson --
49 Xavier Legette -
59 Malachi Corley -
63 Ja'Lynn Polk -
79 Devontez Walker =
84 Jermaine Burton +
88 Jalen McMillan =
95 Javon Baker +
97 Malik Washington =+
107 Johnny Wilson =+
108 Brenden Rice =-
130 Jamari Thrash =
136 Luke McCaffrey -
145 Ainias Smith =+
149 Jacob Cowing +
187 Cornelius Johnson =?
193 Anthony Gould +
194 Ryan Flournoy =?
201 Tahj Washington +

Good analysis, just curious why Roman Wilson would be dropping.

 

[ZWK]

I haven't posted about the RBs yet, partly because I think my RB rating formula (which I made several years ago) is pretty out-of-date and worse than many of the other models out there, and I haven't gotten around to making a new one. Also, applying the formula accurately to a new draft class requires hunting down some missing data which I haven't done.

For other people's good work on this RB class, see Scott Barrett, Hayden Winks, and Dwain McFarland for rankings & analysis, and this PFF article for stats.

But here's what my formula says with the data I have:

Like A Lot:
Like: Isaac Guerendo, Trey Benson, Jaylen Wright, MarShawn Lloyd
Have A Decent Chance: Blake Watson, Kimani Vidal, Jonathon Brooks*, Tyrone Tracy Jr., Audric Estimé, Braelon Allen, Blake Corum
Can't Rule Out: Will Shipley, Jase McClellan, Ray Davis, Kendall Milton, George Holani, Bucky Irving, Rasheen Ali*

* missing athleticism numbers (estimating Brooks as above average but not great and Ali as average athleticism)

I think I agree with the model putting Benson & Wright ahead of Corum, Lloyd ahead of the big slow guys, and picking out Guerendo, Watson, Vidal, and Tracy as sleepers. Biggest disagreement with the model is that I think it's overrating Guerendo based purely on athleticism. Brooks is more of an "incomplete", reminds me of Josh Jacobs as someone where we have to rely more on tape guys / expected draft position because his numbers don't really tell the story of what kind of player he is.

Here's a look at some more specific stats.


Athleticism
Top 10 RBs by my size+athleticism rating:
Isaac Guerendo
Jaylen Wright
Blake Watson
Trey Benson
Tyrone Tracy
MarShawn Lloyd
Kimani Vidal
Will Shipley
George Holani
Blake Corum

Guerendo & Wright stand out ahead of the rest, and then there's a pretty steady of decline from Watson down through Corum. Guys who didn't make the list have mediocre enough athleticism to be a concern and mostly don't even make my formula's "decent chance" tier (unless they didn't do athletic testing, like Brooks, in which case it's missing data rather than a negative). Other athleticism ratings like RAS & SPORQ give fairly similar lists, with some variation. Reel Analytics In-Game Athleticism is surprisingly high on some other guys like Frank Gore Jr.; on the whole I trust combine-based numbers more than theirs.


Hard to Tackle
Top 18 RBs by a mix of yards after contact per carry & missed tackle rate:
Trey Benson
Bucky Irving
Miyan Williams
Jonathon Brooks
Tyrone Tracy
Carson Steele
Audric Estime
Frank Gore Jr.
Blake Watson
MarShawn Lloyd
Kimani Vidal
Dontae Smith
George Holani
Michael Wiley
Jaylen Wright
Kendall Milton
Jase McClellan
Braelon Allen

Blake Corum missed this list by a fair amount, though he would've been next if you leave out his 2023 season (when he was coming back from his knee injury) and might do better if we had the data to adjust this for encountering defenders in space vs. in traffic (he ran into a lot of stacked boxes which makes it harder to pick up YAC & MT, while some other guys like Jaylen Wright faced light boxes).


Rushing efficiency
stat is: 0.5 * First Downs + Touchdowns + 20-Yarders per carry, regressed towards average especially for guys with few carries
0.266 Audric Estimé
0.259 Tyrone Tracy
0.259 Blake Corum
0.254 Rasheen Ali
0.251 Trey Benson
0.249 Kendall Milton
0.248 MarShawn Lloyd
0.247 Jonathon Brooks
0.242 Isaac Guerendo
[average is about here]
0.236 Braelon Allen
0.235 Jaylen Wright
0.231 Will Shipley
0.229 Jase McClellan
0.227 Bucky Irving
0.226 Blake Watson
0.224 Dillon Johnson
0.216 Frank Gore Jr.
0.215 Cody Schrader
0.206 Kimani Vidal
0.205 Carson Steele
0.202 George Holani
0.198 Ray Davis

This is a stat that I've been using for a while as a quick-and-dirty estimate of rushing efficiency. This graph from Arjun Menon has a couple other good stats; also see the PFF stats. None of these guys are elite, so this is more about raising concern for the ones who are worse than averageish.


Workload
Carries+Targets per season since HS (with number of seasons in parenthesis)
239 Carson Steele (3)
223 Kimani Vidal (4)
219 Braelon Allen (3)
213 Frank Gore Jr. (4)
210 Will Shipley (3)
193 Bucky Irving (3)
186 Blake Corum (4)
172 Ray Davis (5)
163 Dillon Johnson (4)
158 George Holani (5)
134 Jaylen Wright (3)
133 Audric Estime (3)
122 Rasheen Ali (5)
121 Blake Watson (6)
100 Jase McClellan (4)
97 Michael Wiley (5)
90 Jonathon Brooks (3)
89 Trey Benson (4)
85 MarShawn Lloyd (4)
83 Cody Schrader (6)
78 Kendall Milton (4)
47 Isaac Guerendo (6)

I've bolded the early declares (3 years since HS). This is good for the early decalres with 200ish carries+targets per season. Not so good for the rest. It's also relevant to look at max single-season workload, and level of competition / team quality - Jonathon Brooks' workload looks better when you consider that he played behind Bijan Robinson & Roschon Johnson at Texas and then had 216 carries+targets in 11 games in 2023.


Receiving
Max season in receiving yards (along with total career receiving yards per game excluding passes behind the line of scrimmage)
589 Tyrone Tracy Jr. (career 16.0 ypg non-screen) *
483 Blake Watson (career 10.0 ypg non-screen)
460 Jo'quavious Marks (career 11.1 ypg non-screen)
422 Dillon Johnson (career 9.7 ypg non-screen)
395 Bucky Irving (career 11 ypg non-screen)
349 Michael Wiley (career 13.4 ypg non-screen)
341 Rasheen Ali (career 10.6 ypg non-screen)
324 Ray Davis (career 6.8 ypg non-screen)
286 Jonathon Brooks (career 3.7 ypg non-screen)
237 Will Shipley (career 5.4 ypg non-screen)
234 Isaac Guerendo (career 6.2 ypg non-screen)
232 Marshawn Lloyd (career 8.8 ypg non-screen)
227 Trey Benson (career 5.8 ypg non-screen)
225 Kimani Vidal (career 4.9 ypg non-screen)
224 Frank Gore Jr. (career 7.0 ypg non-screen)
205 George Holani (career 7.3 ypg non-screen)
192 Cody Schrader (career 10.4 ypg non-screen)
174 Jase McClellan (career 9.6 ypg non-screen)
166 Carson Steele (career 8.2 ypg non-screen)
142 Audric Estime (career 7.9 ypg non-screen)
141 Blake Corum (career 4.5 ypg non-screen)
141 Jaylen Wright (career 1.8 ypg non-screen)
131 Braelon Allen (career 4.7 ypg non-screen)
46 Kendall Milton (career 1.7 ypg non-screen)

A season with 300+ receiving yards, and a career average of 10+ yards per game on passes beyond the line of scrimmage, are pretty good. You can see last year's thread for some comparisons with what good NFL receiving backs did in college. Tracy put up most of his stats playing WR which means that they're not really comparable (though being a former WR is presumably a good sign for his receiving ability). PFF has some other receiving stats including yards per route run.


You can compare my formula & takes at the start of this post with these stats, or click through to some of those other articles for more detailed takes (especially on the top 10ish backs). Trey Benson comes closest to being consistently good across the stats, with his middling workload the main negative.

 

[ZWK]

I've put together a rookie draft board here. This is basically what I'd use if I had a draft today. I put it together by starting with a blend of projected NFL draft position / dynasty ADP / rankings from people whose opinions I value, and then adjust guys up or down based on my own takes.

 

[massraider]

I agree with the WRs you like, almost to a man. Worthy is interesting, because after the big 3, there's a lot of guys who look like parts of an offense, not the focal point. And if I don't think there's an AJ Brown or Amon Ra sitting there (target hogs), then give me Worthy all day.

I like Troy Franklin as much as BTJ. It was noticeable this month when the analytics guys shared different metrics, Franklin was near the top on most of them.

There's definitely going to come a point in this draft, when I'll be happy to take Johnny Wilson. Just a pure upside play. Guys in his ADP range are Spencer Rattler and Will Shipley. That's an easy call.

I would not be surprised to see Marshawn Lloyd be the first back taken. He looks like an NFL back to me.
Wright is an interesting athlete, but someone will take him before I want to. I hope Dallas drafts him, he would be a top 8 rookie pick (1 QB).
I love Tyrone Tracey, I'm not surprised we are seeing him get a little buzz. Think he goes 2nd to 4th round in rookie drafts.

 

[joey]

I've put together a rookie draft board here. This is basically what I'd use if I had a draft today. I put it together by starting with a blend of projected NFL draft position / dynasty ADP / rankings from people whose opinions I value, and then adjust guys up or down based on my own takes.

Marry me.

 

[InDitkaWeTrust]

I've put together a rookie draft board here. This is basically what I'd use if I had a draft today. I put it together by starting with a blend of projected NFL draft position / dynasty ADP / rankings from people whose opinions I value, and then adjust guys up or down based on my own takes.

Great work here. I don't see a ton of mobility in these rankings with the exception of Maye and JJM. Location and draft capital will determine how much rise/fall we get out of them.

 

[ZWK]

Here's a rough take on how I see this year's WR class, compared to where they're being projected by Mock Draft Database.

+ means that I like them more than where they're projected, - means I like them less, = means that it's about right, and a few guys get combinations like =- (similar or slightly less).

3 Marvin Harrison Jr. =
5 Malik Nabers =+
6 Rome Odunze =-
18 Brian Thomas Jr. =
26 Adonai Mitchell -
33 Ladd McConkey =+
34 Xavier Worthy -
37 Troy Franklin =
39 Keon Coleman --
46 Ricky Pearsall -
48 Roman Wilson --
49 Xavier Legette -
59 Malachi Corley -
63 Ja'Lynn Polk -
79 Devontez Walker =
84 Jermaine Burton +
88 Jalen McMillan =
95 Javon Baker +
97 Malik Washington =+
107 Johnny Wilson =+
108 Brenden Rice =-
130 Jamari Thrash =
136 Luke McCaffrey -
145 Ainias Smith =+
149 Jacob Cowing +
187 Cornelius Johnson =?
193 Anthony Gould +
194 Ryan Flournoy =?
201 Tahj Washington +

Good analysis, just curious why Roman Wilson would be dropping.

Roman Wilson: 4th year breakout who played behind Ronnie Bell & Cornelius Johnson for most of his career, and whose peak season wasn't that good (799 yards from scrimmage, 32nd percentile in adjusted yards per team attempt vs rd1-3 WRs). Main production pluses are solid YPRR and good YPT, especially on intermediate throws, which is enough to put him in the day 2 picture. There are mixed opinions on his route running, but his Reception Perception numbers were pretty bad. He does have some go-up-and-get-it ball skills, despite being on the small side. Not good at making guys miss but has averageish YAC ability. A fair number of people see him as slot-only; he did struggle vs. press and that might help explain why he got so little playing time his first 3 years (if they preferred Bell in the slot and that was the only place that Wilson would fit). A double-minus might be a little too harsh, but this seems like a below-average profile for a rd1-3 WR and not meaningfully better than this year's 3rd rounders.

 

[ZWK]

I have edited my post with open ratings as Matt Harmon has released more Reception Perception data. Some later picks who have pretty good numbers: Malik Washington, Johnny Wilson, Ainias Smith. On the other end of the spectrum, Devontez Walker has awful numbers.

Also, here's an update to last week's post on how I see WRs relative to where they're being projected for the NFL draft. This time I'm using Arif Hasan's consensus board. Changes are partly based on new Reception Perception numbers (e.g. now lower on Walker), partly based on other changes to my thinking (e.g. now higher on Burton for other reasons), and partly just relative to the consensus draft board now being different (e.g. Nabers is a =+ relative to ranking 6th on the overall board but just a = relative to ranking 3rd).

1 Marvin Harrison Jr. =
3 Malik Nabers =
6 Rome Odunze =-
19 Brian Thomas Jr. =
29 Adonai Mitchell -
31 Ladd McConkey =
33 Xavier Worthy =-
36 Keon Coleman --
39 Troy Franklin =
42 Xavier Legette -
48 Ricky Pearsall -
53 Roman Wilson -
62 Ja'Lynn Polk -
69 Malachi Corley -
81 Jalen McMillan =
82 Devontez Walker -
92 Jermaine Burton ++
95 Javon Baker +
101 Malik Washington +
106 Brenden Rice =-
107 Johnny Wilson +
131 Jamari Thrash =
137 Jacob Cowing +
146 Luke McCaffrey -
170 Ainias Smith ++
179 Tahj Washington =+
183 Anthony Gould =+
194 Cornelius Johnson =?

 

[ZWK]

Malachi Corley: Great with the ball in his hands. Not near the level of Deebo Samuel (who had 7 rushing TDs & 4 kick return TDs in college, and better MT & YAC numbers, and did it in the SEC rather than Conference USA, and is now the best after-the-catch receiver in the NFL). Overall production numbers were pretty meh, despite his 1295 rec yard (1382 YFS) season in 2022 - Western Kentucky threw the ball 621 times that year, and the year before Jerreth Sterns had 1902 receiving yards & Mitchell Tinsley had 1402. That peak season was 20th percentile in YPTA relative to the best season recent rd1-3 WRs, and his career YPRR numbers are below average too. He seems not-so-good at regular WR stuff like route running (see: poor Reception Perception numbers) or ball skills (see: awful contested catch numbers), and he doesn't have the blazing speed to be a two-trick pony (manufactured touches + deep balls) or to take many gadget plays to the house. He might be a useful role player in the right landing spot, or not (see: Laviska Shenault, Amari Rodgers), or move to RB (see: Ty Montgomery); there's some chance he pans out as more than that (see: Golden Tate) but I don't like the odds.

 

[ZWK]

Great first round for dynasty leagues, although in some cases not so good for a player's first season or two. 6 QBs, 7 WRs, and 1 TE drafted, many early and/or earlier than expected, some to good or great landing spots, and none with a major overall downgrade based on the combo of draft capital & landing spot.

6 QBs in the first 12 picks is great for superflex. 4 were expected. Penix & Nix get a big boost from being drafted early. Short-term it's bad for Penix to be behind Cousins. Cousins basically got the first 2 years guaranteed in his 4-year deal, so he won't be cut before then, though a trade is a possibility.

KC a perfect landing spot for Worthy. Being on a top passing offense is good for any receiver. And in this case there's a particularly good fit, because KC loves to give manufactured touches to speedy good-after-the-catch receivers (Hardman, Toney, Hill, Conley, Albert Wilson, DeAnthony Thomas) and that was Worthy's biggest strength at Texas. That won't be enough on its own to give Worthy fantasy value (see: all but one of those names), but it'll be a boost to whatever other production he can earn down the field.

Chicago not a good spot for Rome Odunze's rookie year production with Moore & Allen there, but if Caleb Williams hits it'll be great long-term. Jacksonville a somewhat similar situation for Brian Thomas, but the short-term target competition isn't as strong. San Francisco somewhat similar for Pearsall, though their potential for high-end passing numbers over the coming years are more about scheme/coaching than quarterbacking; Pearsall also gets an earlier-than-expected draft capital boost.

On the other end of the QB / passing offense spectrum, Nabers goes to NYG, Bowers to LV, and Legette to CAR. But the good thing about bad quarterbacking is that it doesn't last long - in 2 years those teams will probably have different quarterbacks (or their current QB will turn out better than expected). The Raiders also have Michael Mayer, which is a bit of a negative for Bowers, though it might not be a negative if Mayer isn't good enough to be more than a typical TE2 (he wasn't good as a rookie) or if the team finds a good way to use 2 TEs. Legette (like Pearsall) gets a boost from being drafted earlier than expected.

Adonai Mitchell & Ladd McConkey not getting drafted rd1 is a negative for them; how much depends on how far they fall.