What's new
Fantasy Football - Footballguys Forums

Welcome to Our Forums. Once you've registered and logged in, you're primed to talk football, among other topics, with the sharpest and most experienced fantasy players on the internet.

Seriously ...is there any strategy for picking a kicker? (1 Viewer)

Romofan

Romofan

Footballguy
I am playing musical chairs with my kicker this year with mediocre success. Would love to hear your thoughts on how you choose yours.

1)You obviously need a kicker on a team with an offense that can move the ball.

2) I am starting to think that a good defense is also correlated to a good kicking performance - coaches that have confidence in their defense will probably opt to settle for a field goal more often than not. And a good defense keeps the score from getting out of hand.

3) Is there any correlation between kickers on Running Teams vs Passing Teams?

4) Weather conditions obviously play a factor - you always hear "kicker in a Dome" - but this matters more in the later part of the season and not so much this early in the season. (7 of the top 10 kickers so far play outdoors)

5)There doesn't seem to be a direct correlation between a good kicking performance and the opponents Defense. A really porous defense seems to give up TD's easier.

Is it just a crapshoot? Or does anybody use any metrics with success?

 
This is usually a crap shoot but I prefer kickers with the following... positives.

1: Play on a predominant passing team. I was gunning for Matt Prater in leagues simply because Denver is a pass focused offense and it's easier to get down the field through the air than it is trying to move down the field quickly with 3-6 yard runs.

2: The kicker needs a big leg. Everybody knows that 40-50 yard FGs usually score more so why not go for a kicker with a big leg (or who plays in high altitude like Prater). A coach with a kicker like Janikowski will take more 40+ yard kicks, which can pay off.

3: What is the coaching style? Many may/may not know that Belichick very rarely asks Gostkowski to kick from 45+ yards so that hurts him somewhat. Teams with a coach that aggressively goes for it on 4th down may help their kickers out by prolonging drives or giving them easier kicking situations than coaches who punt at the opponent's 40 (or who get a DOG penalty at the 35 to push the punter back).

 
Decent offenses with very strong defenses usually is my strategy when possible, problem is figuring out the strong defenses is typically a crapshoot. If the offense is too good they get TDs all the time.

Very strong defenses win field position battle, and typically this allows for frequent field goal attempts.

This years example: see Jeff Reed.

 
DawnBTVS said:
This is usually a crap shoot but I prefer kickers with the following... positives.

1: Play on a predominant passing team. I was gunning for Matt Prater in leagues simply because Denver is a pass focused offense and it's easier to get down the field through the air than it is trying to move down the field quickly with 3-6 yard runs.

2: The kicker needs a big leg. Everybody knows that 40-50 yard FGs usually score more so why not go for a kicker with a big leg (or who plays in high altitude like Prater). A coach with a kicker like Janikowski will take more 40+ yard kicks, which can pay off.

3: What is the coaching style? Many may/may not know that Belichick very rarely asks Gostkowski to kick from 45+ yards so that hurts him somewhat. Teams with a coach that aggressively goes for it on 4th down may help their kickers out by prolonging drives or giving them easier kicking situations than coaches who punt at the opponent's 40 (or who get a DOG penalty at the 35 to push the punter back).
Click to expand...
:lmao: nice post - that makes sense about the passing teams....easier to get into FG range but without a great running game harder to punch in TD's....

 
The strategy I use has more to do with the offense than the actual kicker and his leg strength/accuracy although they do come into play. I look at an offense than can move the ball that is consevative or is facing a strong defense that will likely stall out drives making FG opportunities available. Take for example the Bears Giants game this week or the Falcons 49ers game. I like both Atlanta and the Bears kickers because they will get opportunities to kick a few 3 pointers. Thats how I would do a week by week Kicker start. For a guy you just draft and leave on the roster you are going to have good and bad weeks based on the defenses their team faces.

 
Last edited by a moderator:
There's a guy in my league named Bob. Bob drafts a kicker high every year and then drops him the first time he screws up. I draft the highest rated kicker (usually according to FBG) I can get in the least round, and then when Bob drops his kicker I exchange that kicker immediately for mine. I have ended up with a top-5 kicker every year I've done that.

Find your Bob.

 
I rank the NFL offenses. When I'm drafting a kicker, I pick whichever kicker plays in the best offense. I might give a slight upgrade or downgrade based on history or job security (moving Kaeding and Gostkowski up), but by and large I just pick based on quality of offense. Trying to identify offenses that will bog down in the red zone is a waste of time, in my experience. Typically, at the end of the season the highest-scoring kickers almost always play in the highest-scoring offenses.

Really, the biggest key is just being quick on the wire. Lots of great fantasy kickers available on the wire through the year.

 
Romofan said:
DawnBTVS said:
This is usually a crap shoot but I prefer kickers with the following... positives.

1: Play on a predominant passing team. I was gunning for Matt Prater in leagues simply because Denver is a pass focused offense and it's easier to get down the field through the air than it is trying to move down the field quickly with 3-6 yard runs.

2: The kicker needs a big leg. Everybody knows that 40-50 yard FGs usually score more so why not go for a kicker with a big leg (or who plays in high altitude like Prater). A coach with a kicker like Janikowski will take more 40+ yard kicks, which can pay off.

3: What is the coaching style? Many may/may not know that Belichick very rarely asks Gostkowski to kick from 45+ yards so that hurts him somewhat. Teams with a coach that aggressively goes for it on 4th down may help their kickers out by prolonging drives or giving them easier kicking situations than coaches who punt at the opponent's 40 (or who get a DOG penalty at the 35 to push the punter back).
Click to expand...
:popcorn: nice post - that makes sense about the passing teams....easier to get into FG range but without a great running game harder to punch in TD's....
Click to expand...
yeah, I'd think passing teams (playing other passing teams) just take less time per drive enabling more drives.you could go back to last year and see if you can correlate rush attempts with fg attempts, or scores.

you might think about streaming kickers in good circumstances like weather, scoring potential, vs strong red zone defense, vs passing team, etc.

one thing I don't like is to take a kicker on a team that looks like it'll turn the ball over a lot, but maybe that's too obvious.

 
I always wait until the last round or grab a kicker off waivers from a good offense. Last year I did good with Carney and this year I took Neil Rackers in the last round.

 
SSOG said:
I rank the NFL offenses. When I'm drafting a kicker, I pick whichever kicker plays in the best offense. I might give a slight upgrade or downgrade based on history or job security (moving Kaeding and Gostkowski up), but by and large I just pick based on quality of offense. Trying to identify offenses that will bog down in the red zone is a waste of time, in my experience. Typically, at the end of the season the highest-scoring kickers almost always play in the highest-scoring offenses.

Really, the biggest key is just being quick on the wire. Lots of great fantasy kickers available on the wire through the year.
Click to expand...
Which is why drafting one before your last pick is foolish. A kicker can finish first in your league one year and 20th the next year, and vice-versa. There is very little consistency to the position. Every year, kickers get drafted too early, leaving actual football players for the rest of us to scoop up. :popcorn:
 
Yeah, picking from the waiver wire is usually the key. I think kickers are pretty streaky too so I usually ride the streak until it cools down or they come upon a stretch of games I don't like. Prater, Carney, and Tynes type players who start out strong are usually good enough to use until one of the elite kickers have a bye. Then I just grab one of them and ride them the rest of the year since most players don't roster two kickers on their team and rightly so. Of course you want a high powered offense that can move the chains but not punch it into the end zone. For example, Nugent getting a lot of field goals this year. Also, a strong defense that keeps opposing offenses off the field helps too.

 
1. good offense but not too good (teams that can move between the 20s but bog down in the redzone, or are conservative)

2. decent defense/ good running game

3. accuracy and range

in the last round, i take the guy left that most fits this mold, AND has a late season bye week. this year i ended up with matt bryant. not the sexiest name, but he fit my criteria and i've been happy with him so far.

 
I usually just match him up with the best of my QB or RB, i.e. grab Kaeding if I have Rivers or Bryant if I have Matt Ryan. I figure it the offense doesn't score with the QB/RB, the Kicker gets the points - kind of score averaging.

And I never lose sleep over over it...

 
A simple 3 step process for me once I get to my last pick.

1. Which available kicker has a team with the best offense? If nothing else I want a ton of PAT opps.

2. Which kicker has been around the longest? Most consistent with name recognition. I prefer not to overthink this decision and roll the dice on a new guy.

3. Who kicks in the least volatile environment? Dome or warm weather is all I ask.

 
1. Average to slightly above-average offense

2. Average to below-average redzone offense

3. Warm weather/domed stadium vs. cold weather/windy stadium

Big Gap

4. Actual Talent.

 
CravenM said:
I usually just match him up with the best of my QB or RB, i.e. grab Kaeding if I have Rivers or Bryant if I have Matt Ryan. I figure it the offense doesn't score with the QB/RB, the Kicker gets the points - kind of score averaging.And I never lose sleep over over it...
Click to expand...
:rolleyes: Yep and Keep an eye on the weather report.
 
the only strategy you need for a kicker: make sure he's healthy.

spend your time elsewhere. you can play matchups with waiver-wire defenses, and sometimes WR3. don't spend any more than 30 seconds to make sure your kicker is going to play, and then be done with it.

considerations like picking the kicker on the best offense, one that plays in a dome, one with a strong leg, etc. etc. aren't all that important. it simply doesn't matter, luck is just about the only factor.

 
When its the last round I take the kicker for the team I think will be the highest scoring Bironas > Hartley > Vinatari > Gostkowski and so on.

If I cant get a kicker for a team I think will score well I look for one I think will be kicking field goals every possession Jeff Reed for example started the year with an Ok offense but a questionable quarterback.

 
I target reliable kickers on good, but not great offenses. I want to target a team that can move the ball between the 20's, but not necessarily have a great red zone % (because their drives often result in FGs rather than EPs). A strong defense is helpful to the so-so to good offense, but not necessarily crucial (teams that get in a lot of shootouts produce good kicker stats, too). A defense that is strong in one phase (rushing or receiving) but weak in the other is desirable for kicker stats, IMO - these are the teams that get in high-scoring affairs as opposing teams take advantage of the glaring weakness on D forcing high-scoring contests.

Also, I tend to avoid the ultra-cold-weather, outdoor venue kickers (Buffalo, Green Bay, Cleveland) as the kickers generally stink in December.

Also, as Mike Herman has demonstrated in his work, owning the Denver kicker is usually a ticket to a top-10 performance due to the 8 yearly games in conditions that are very suited to making long kicks (despite being near the Rockies, Denver is on the high plains and the winter weather isn't as severe as you would expect - not as severe as the three I cited above, anyway).

So, my progression is:

Denver Kicker (Prater this year)

Good kickers on decent but not outstanding offensive teams:

Nick Folk (NYJ) - for whatever reason, I ended up drafting him the most often in my staff leagues - probably because all of us are familiar with Mike Herman's Denver profile, and I never take the first kicker off the board



Joe Nedney (SF) - the offense hasn't been as good as I anticipated yet this year, but Nedney fits my parameters

Sea Bass (OAK) offense is improving, but the Raiders still ask Janikowski to kick a lot of long attempts



Stephen Gostkowski - poor RB stable leads to a decent number of kick attempts despite the powerful passing offense...

ETC.

My .02.

 
Here's what I look for in a kicker:

1. High powered offense

2. Has put up top 3 scoring season(s) before

3. Preference towards kickers that play in a dome

I went with Rackers this year.

 
SSOG said:
I rank the NFL offenses. When I'm drafting a kicker, I pick whichever kicker plays in the best offense. I might give a slight upgrade or downgrade based on history or job security (moving Kaeding and Gostkowski up), but by and large I just pick based on quality of offense. Trying to identify offenses that will bog down in the red zone is a waste of time, in my experience. Typically, at the end of the season the highest-scoring kickers almost always play in the highest-scoring offenses.Really, the biggest key is just being quick on the wire. Lots of great fantasy kickers available on the wire through the year.
Click to expand...
:rolleyes: although if I am choosing from two or three, I would also look at who is better from long range.AND I don't agree with this ".....best kicker with my last pick" drivel - there is a lot of value in having a kicker on a good offense who has had success AND who has a LATE BYE week - Crosby was high on my list because I don't have to worry about changing kickers until Week 10 when most of the team will have finished their bye weeks. Drafting a kicker with a week 4 bye week this year especially would mean you are dealing with dropping/replacing your kicker while you are trying to figure out which of the free agent running backs/receivers you should be adding
 
I think the better question is, why have a kicker at all. Sure, all of FF is subject to a degree of randomness, but there's still some skill involved in seeing which players are undervalued. With a kicker it's a pure crapshoot.

It seems like everyone agrees that a kicker's stats from week to week are so prone to luck, then why not do away with the position entirely in FF?

 
Last edited by a moderator:
I agree with most said here but I usually as a tiebreaker try to land a Guy playing on snf or mnf so I have back pocket points and can watch my kicker in agony when my game is on the line

 
some good posts and info :coffee:

sidenote: I know there is a ton of randomness for kickers numbers week to week.....but if Kickers are ranked it means somebody is looking at something to rank them - not pure luck - which is why I asked the question....

 
Warrior said:
Raider Nation said:
I look at the kickers who are still on the board when it's time for my last pick. I choose the best one.
Click to expand...
Very helpful.Question: "How do you choose the best kicker?"Answer: "I choose the best one"brilliant!
Click to expand...
Generally speaking, reading comprehension is way down on this board.He said he won't take one before has list pick - meaning it's a low priority and he isn't worried about it. The point is... it doesn't matter that much.ETA: I favor a big leg; above average team/offense and warm weather or dome kicker. Don't want foul weather come fantasy play-off time.
 
Last edited by a moderator:
SuperGreen said:
1. good offense but not too good (teams that can move between the 20s but bog down in the redzone, or are conservative)2. decent defense/ good running game3. accuracy and rangein the last round, i take the guy left that most fits this mold, AND has a late season bye week. this year i ended up with matt bryant. not the sexiest name, but he fit my criteria and i've been happy with him so far.
Click to expand...
I follow basically the same process and ended up with Nick Folk. So far, so good.
 
All I look for is someone who plays on a good team that will score a decent amount. I drafted Nick Folk this year, but ended up dropping him when Neil Rackers won the starting job.

 
1)go to a wagerline

2)look at the over unders

3)find games with highest over/under total

4)pick kicker on the team that is favored in the high under/over game

That's pretty much the best strat for finding a kicker each week. Fbg's should publish my method for their readers.

 
I take kicker with my last draft pick and usually get a good one by looking for offenses that can move the ball but tend to fizzle in the redzone. I drafted Folk because the Jets can run the ball and Sanchez is good enough to move the ball in FG, but his inexperience will cause drives to stall.

Watch the waiver wire, I grabbed Bryant since he was scoring a few points higher than Folk each week. He's on an offense that is good at run & pass but they get stopped enough where Bryant gets a good number of FGs.

 
Last edited by a moderator:
Kicker on a good team is a must in my books. They may not have the monster weeks with lots of field goals but they provide at least some points everyweek. For instance, Mason Crosby had at least 4 points in every game last year. 4 isn't good for a kicker but it isn't a killer either. Kickers from mediocre teams often have a few games a year where their kicker gets only 1 or 2 points.

Also you want a kicker on a team who is usually leading or in a tight game late. If a team is always down in the 4th quarter it often takes the Field Goal out of the equation.

 
Last edited by a moderator:
SSOG said:
I rank the NFL offenses. When I'm drafting a kicker, I pick whichever kicker plays in the best offense. I might give a slight upgrade or downgrade based on history or job security (moving Kaeding and Gostkowski up), but by and large I just pick based on quality of offense. Trying to identify offenses that will bog down in the red zone is a waste of time, in my experience. Typically, at the end of the season the highest-scoring kickers almost always play in the highest-scoring offenses.Really, the biggest key is just being quick on the wire. Lots of great fantasy kickers available on the wire through the year.
Click to expand...
:jawdrop:
 
big0mar said:
The only thing that correlates with kicker fantasy points is team points scored.
Click to expand...
yeah, excepting yardage bonuses, I think the top 10 offenses in points scored produced the top 7 kickers, or combo kickers --- the last 3 spots in the top 10 kicking teams being den, nyj, pit.ind, bal, and hou being the top 10 offenses that didn't produce a top 10 kicking position.

 
Draft: Pick whoever is the highest left on the board in the last round.

Week 3: Drop that guy and pick up whoever has 3 solid weeks so far.

 
Easy Six said:
There's a guy in my league named Bob. Bob drafts a kicker high every year and then drops him the first time he screws up. I draft the highest rated kicker (usually according to FBG) I can get in the least round, and then when Bob drops his kicker I exchange that kicker immediately for mine. I have ended up with a top-5 kicker every year I've done that.Find your Bob.
Click to expand...
Hello my name is Bob.Week one I dropped Hartley after he missed 2 FGs.Afterwards another owner picked him up.Week 3 Hartley is out of a job!Maybe you should rethink that strategy as its not foolproof.
 
Whoever's left during the draft at my last pick. Then when you play a few weeks and figure out who is on this year, go get that guy. Otherwise, its a crap shoot. Drafted Buehler in both my leagues then dropped him week 2 for Matt Bryant. Havent looked back yet. If Bryant starts to fail, move on to the next. I think people over think the kicker thing. As much effort as they put into, I put in 100% less effort and will still score within 10 points of their kicker for the year. Not worth sweating over.

 
Always look for:

1) Long or foreign sounding names ("Long" in the name qualifies as well).

2) Names that rhyme with crackers.

3) Guys who beat up paper towel dispensers.

Oh, and avoid any guys named Josh.

 
I agree with the offenses (good, not great) and defense (above average, likely not great).

Reasoning is that a great offense leads to more TDs instead of field goals.

Defenses that are good know that every point matters - so they will play for points on offense. Field goals are huge when you get Baltimore / Pittsburgh / NY Jets together as those are usually low-scoring contests.

I also agree about the over/under totals - a good indicator of scoring. I will almost always lean towards a heavily favored team simply because a team trailing may give up on FG tries - or even have to go for two.

Lastly, involve the head coach. See how many 40+ and 50+ FG tries that team had last year. If it is a low number, find another option as that coach is afraid to try from long range.

 
Some kickers seem like sure steady bets to me:

Bironas

Giants kicker - Tynes

Indy kicker - Vinatieri

Rackers

Cincy kicker (Graham, now Nugent)

Reed

I don't think I've ever gone with any other option.

 
You must log in or register to reply here.

Similar threads

Hot Sauce Guy
Officially Unofficial FBG Post-season Kicker Contest!
2 3
Replies
100
Views
2K
Hot Sauce Guy
Hot Sauce Guy
zamboni
Should There Be A League Trade Deadline (Keeper/Dynasty)?
Replies
33
Views
782
Mitchie
M
TheWinz
2023 OFFENSE/DEFENSE Contest - Week 1
2
Replies
81
Views
2K
Pip's Invitation
Pip's Invitation

Users who are viewing this thread

Total: 2 (members: 0, guests: 2)
Top