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Dion Lewis (3 Viewers)

Something tells me that BB would like to get Lewis going for a playoff weapon. He did last week! And he did score on that play. He gets credit for that TD would that change any thinking this week? You bet it would! I have a gut feeling that Lewis finally gets into the endzone this week and he might even score twice? As a Blount owner anything more is gravy, although another 1-2 yard plounge would be nice. I think NE scores 4-5 TD's this week and even 2-3 FG's. Belichick, Brady and Company hangs a 40 burger on the JETS.

 
Darryl Talley said:
How many totes are we expecting? Still a crapshoot?

I'm debating Lewis/McKinnon as well but non-ppr. It's TD or bust. FWIW, Thielen and Diggs look likely to suit up.




 
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I'm aggressively banking on 14 touches for 75 total yards and a signature freakshow, jaw-dropping touchdown catch. McKinnon is a safer pick though. Depends on the rest of your lineup. 

 
Struggled with RB2 all year and have no other choice but to roll with Dion over Forte. The stars have aligned all season so no reason why this won't work out as well. 

Sig likes him so.....STARTING WITH CONFIDENCE!!11!! :football:

 
Starting him as my RB1.  Note:  my other RBs are Dixon, Jennings, Booker and Smallwood (IR).  Yes, my rbs are crappy, just hoping for a little Christmas miracle from my sorry crew.

 
I am shuked that the Pats are using Lewis mosty as a runner and rarely as a receiver. White has been going in in passing downs and Blount in the red zone, making it really tough to play Leeis. 

 
Damn I hate games like last night.  I've always loved his talent and now I'll draft him too early next year, he'll get hurt and my fantasy season will suffer as a result.  Games like last night are why there is an 82 page thread on him.  Special talent with this kid.

 
From a true football perspective, the way NE used him, or you could say saved him, during the regular season was absolutely ideal.  I'm not surprised, not being after the fact jack but I had a trade offer for him a few days ago and when I rejected it my reply was they had been saving him for now and he's about to take a value jump. Still seeing is believing and that game last night gave me all kinds of good feelings on his outlook next season.

 
menobrown said:
that game last night gave me all kinds of good feelings on his outlook next season.
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It'll be interesting to see what that performance did to his redraft and dynasty stock after such a sparse showing in the regular season - I was hoping to get him cheap next year. 13 carries and 7 targets is a nice workload.

 
Anarchy99 said:
Where was that during the fantasy season, ya bum!

Signed,
A not bitter at all Lewis owner who kept him the entire redraft season for nothing.
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Ditto.  As a result of holding him, I will have the chance to keep him 2nd to last round this year and likely will do so. 

 
Dr. Octopus said:
I wonder if anyone still sees James White as a threat to Dion Lewis?
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33 snaps vs. 12 snaps. James White will be a threat to Dion's snaps when games get out of hand and at the end of the season if the games cease to impact playoff seeding. The only concern is if BB gets c0cky and tries to save Dion for the playoffs again*, thus limiting his snaps/touches in the regular season.

*I say again, but it's unclear if his slow increase in usage was due to playing it safe as he returned from injury or if it was deliberately to keep him safe/healthy for the playoffs.

Anarchy99 said:
Define threat. White scored in 2 of the last 3 games. White is not going to send Lewis to the bench, but NE is still using him for mismatches near the end zone.
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Threat = holding someone back from fantasy production.

I know you are just playing the thankless job of devil's advocate (thanks, genuinely), but given the unpredictable nature of TDs, it seems deceiving to use that as a measuring device for this case. The important stat line is that James White got zero carries and 1 target in a playoff game. Is White any more of a mismatch than Dion? To me it seems Dion can do everything James White can do, but James White can't do everything Dion can do, making White roster depth rather than a fantasy threat. If I was an NFL DC and saw White in at the goal line, I'd feel like NE was tipping their hand and would play the pass. Given Dion's mixed use, I'd have to take a guess.

 
I don't believe I ever debated who the better player was, but take out the TDs against the Texans (and remember Lewis had 0 on the season before then), and Lewis had a pretty unimpressive game. A 3.15 ypc and 64 yfs is not exactly a fear factor for opposing defenses. Fantasy wise, 64 yards would be nothing without the TDs . . . and 2 receptions is not exactly killing it in PPR scoring.

So to come full circle, yes, Lewis will see more snaps and more touches than White, but if the touches are predominantly rushes and not receptions, we need to reevaluate how valuable Lewis is for fantasy purposes. He only had 8 catches in his last 5 games. He also only broke 100 yfs once in 8 games. Yeah, I get that he was coming back from injury and they were saving him for the playoffs, but his usage and role doesn't seem to support him as a great fantasy asset, and how many 3 TD games (1 on a return) can we reasonably expect from him?

 
Anarchy99 said:
I don't believe I ever debated who the better player was, but take out the TDs against the Texans (and remember Lewis had 0 on the season before then), and Lewis had a pretty unimpressive game. A 3.15 ypc and 64 yfs is not exactly a fear factor for opposing defenses. Fantasy wise, 64 yards would be nothing without the TDs . . . and 2 receptions is not exactly killing it in PPR scoring.

So to come full circle, yes, Lewis will see more snaps and more touches than White, but if the touches are predominantly rushes and not receptions, we need to reevaluate how valuable Lewis is for fantasy purposes. He only had 8 catches in his last 5 games. He also only broke 100 yfs once in 8 games. Yeah, I get that he was coming back from injury and they were saving him for the playoffs, but his usage and role doesn't seem to support him as a great fantasy asset, and how many 3 TD games (1 on a return) can we reasonably expect from him?
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My takeaway from that game was not in the production (TDs, ypc, rec, whatever) but in the usage. A single game's production for a veteran player means nothing in the long run - do you really expect Dion to have 3.15 ypc or a 29% catch rate in a 16 game season? Of course not. But the fact that he got 13 carries (led the team), 7 targets (2nd on the team), played 48% of the offensive snaps, and got a goal line carry in the most important game of the season (so far) does carry some significant weight. That usage and role absolutely DOES support him being a great fantasy asset. 

The fact that James White got 86 targets during the regular season but only one in this game also carries some weight.

Dion only played the last 7 games of the regular season and was brought along slowly (they won all the games so it's not like they needed to lean on him). His off snap % went 27, 32, 25, 25, 37, 36 ,40, then 48% in the playoff game. James White was often in the 35-40% range during those 7 games, but decreased as Dion's increased, culminating in a mere 17% on Saturday.

I think these trends point to Dion being an undervalued fantasy pick next season, likely in all formats. Maybe people will look at his 7 regular season games and only see 24 targets (16g -> 55), but I'll be paying attention to these playoff games to see how that changes. During those 7 regular season games, White had 39 targets. Given the recent 7-1 split, I wouldn't count on a 55/89 target split next year between Dion/White. I think it is far more likely that Dion out targets White 2:1 than anything close to a 1:1 split. I also think it is far more likely Dion's ypc is closer to his career 4.6 ypc than his 3.15 ypc of last week.

Keep in mind Dion was on pace for over 100 rushes and 100 targets in 2015 (catch rate of 72%). And he's had double digit carries in his past 4 games. I don't expect BB to burn the candle at both ends during the regular season next year, but I do think he'll relegate James White to an afterthought role on his way to a top 20 PPR season and top 24 0PPR season (on a ppg basis if he can't stay healthy for 16 games - his main knock).

 
IMO, way to early too project what happens in NE in 2017, as there is always a chance they shake things up. Blount will be a free agent again, you never know when they bull a Maroney out of a hat, and Lewis' role could change a lot. Clearly more snap and more usage trumps the alternative, but Lewis is still more of a puzzle piece than a main cog. After the game with the Texans (when he got more carries due Blount being sick all week), his ypc stands at 4.2 on the season (vs. 4.8 last year).

For dynasty and redraft purposes, he should not be as costly to obtain as other backs, but there are reasons for that. He has had a ton of injuries and is unlikely to ever be a bell cow back. In redraft, he will likely get drafted as a RB 3 or RB4, and if healthy he should be in the mix as a RB2. Yes, that is decent value, but just like for NE, he seems more like a piece than mainstay in fantasy lineups.

 
[icon] said:
There are quite a few RB's in FA this year... could be interesting 
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Meh. Not much to see here. The Steelers aren't letting Bell walk, LMurray will want more than NE would give him. And Eddie Lacy has been little more than a tease. Other guys might get cut, but on the surface I don't see a FA RB on the horizon that would make a ton of sense.

 
Anarchy99 said:
IMO, way to early too project what happens in NE in 2017, as there is always a chance they shake things up. Blount will be a free agent again, you never know when they bull a Maroney out of a hat, and Lewis' role could change a lot. Clearly more snap and more usage trumps the alternative, but Lewis is still more of a puzzle piece than a main cog. After the game with the Texans (when he got more carries due Blount being sick all week), his ypc stands at 4.2 on the season (vs. 4.8 last year).

For dynasty and redraft purposes, he should not be as costly to obtain as other backs, but there are reasons for that. He has had a ton of injuries and is unlikely to ever be a bell cow back. In redraft, he will likely get drafted as a RB 3 or RB4, and if healthy he should be in the mix as a RB2. Yes, that is decent value, but just like for NE, he seems more like a piece than mainstay in fantasy lineups.
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I agree it's too early to project things accurately, but I feel those rankings are pretty safe with the obvious caveat of health which is why I added the PPG mention. Even with Blount or another early down bruiser, I think Dion's involvement in the passing game will provide him a safe floor. Remember, he was on a torrid pace last year before injury with Blount and White on the roster. I honestly don't expect him to get 10+ carries/game, but his consistent involvement in that phase of the game of late is very interesting. 

He's definitely more of a piece than a mainstay in NE and that certainly hurts his image in fantasy owners' eyes. I'm ok with that bringing his value down. But if the guy is getting 6 targets a game and 6 carries a game, he's going to put up RB2 stats unless he becomes allergic to the end zone. At a likely RB3/4 price, I'm all about that. He can hang out in my flex or be a bye week (or injury) filler. However, if he catches that 2015 magic or gets 10+ carries a game then you've got RB1 upside all of a sudden. I love cheap players with safe floors and significant upside.

Anarchy99 said:
Meh. Not much to see here. The Steelers aren't letting Bell walk, LMurray will want more than NE would give him. And Eddie Lacy has been little more than a tease. Other guys might get cut, but on the surface I don't see a FA RB on the horizon that would make a ton of sense.
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Exactly. This will be a pretty boring free agency from a RB perspective. I can't imagine anyone coming in and doing more than Blount did this year, but there was still plenty of fantasy points for a complementary back in this RB target friendly system even with Blount tearing it up. The only players that would add some intrigue to the free agency class would be Stewart or Martin if they're cut, but I think Doug's contract makes that unlikely. Not that I could see NE paying for either of those two guys, just speaking in general.

Off topic, but this free agency talk reminded me: what are your thoughts on Floyd in NE? I don't feel like he's a good fit for Brady/the NE system, but you think there's any legs to the idea they might bring him back next season?

 
Anarchy99 said:
Meh. Not much to see here. The Steelers aren't letting Bell walk, LMurray will want more than NE would give him. And Eddie Lacy has been little more than a tease. Other guys might get cut, but on the surface I don't see a FA RB on the horizon that would make a ton of sense.
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VERY bad RB class. I really think Murray goes to TB... he's a good fit there. You also have Doug Martin. He is suspended but a team will certainly be looking to take a flier on him. He's still young and he has talent if he can stay healthy. 

I agree, Bell stays in PIT. I really think GB keeps Lacy but if he walks I could see him going to Jacksonville maybe. 

NE is going to be stuck with what they have or they will draft someone. This is a VERY VERY deep RB class so I could see NE going younger and cheaper on that front. I am not sure what that means for Lewis' future but in general I've made it a rule to not bite on the NE RB in fantasy... I got hosed on that once. It's equal to how Denver was years ago. Just say no! 

If NE does nothing to the RB situation this year, I'd say Lewis is probably in a good position to do well

 
I saw him walking on the sideline but would like to know....of course with Bill using White the way he did not sure what that means for his future 

 
Found this and it explains a lot

When speaking with the media after the game, Lewis said he tweaked his hamstring early in the game, which led to a reduced role for him in the offense. He came on the field for the final play of regular time during the fake kneeldown and further tweaked it as he was running out of bounds.

Lewis says that he is fine and should be fully healthy within two weeks. There is nothing to be worried about.

 
CabinFever said:
Found this and it explains a lot

When speaking with the media after the game, Lewis said he tweaked his hamstring early in the game, which led to a reduced role for him in the offense. He came on the field for the final play of regular time during the fake kneeldown and further tweaked it as he was running out of bounds.

Lewis says that he is fine and should be fully healthy within two weeks. There is nothing to be worried about.
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Good news...looked like it could have been a lot worse...

 
CabinFever said:
Found this and it explains a lot

When speaking with the media after the game, Lewis said he tweaked his hamstring early in the game, which led to a reduced role for him in the offense. He came on the field for the final play of regular time during the fake kneeldown and further tweaked it as he was running out of bounds.

Lewis says that he is fine and should be fully healthy within two weeks. There is nothing to be worried about.
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Except for James White who proved last night he's more than JAG.

 
Pipes said:
Except for James White who proved last night he's more than JAG.
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Meh.  We have seen this time and time again from New England.  White's rushing numbers weren't that great.  Blount has been their best rusher.  White is a great pass catcher.  Lewis is probably their best all around rusher and receiver but he seems to always get hurt.  I expect  a mixed hodgepodge going forward just as we have seen for many years.  Sell high on White if you own him and someone sees this as him coming out party.

 
Warhogs said:
Meh.  We have seen this time and time again from New England.  White's rushing numbers weren't that great.  Blount has been their best rusher.  White is a great pass catcher.  Lewis is probably their best all around rusher and receiver but he seems to always get hurt.  I expect  a mixed hodgepodge going forward just as we have seen for many years.  Sell high on White if you own him and someone sees this as him coming out party.
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This hodgepodge is why I brought up White. Not that White's a stud but that he still has a viable role in their offense which makes the RB situation a fantasy nightmare.  Been down this road before and I'll do my best just to avoid it.

 
ESPN Boston's Mike Reiss expects the Patriots to hold onto Dion Lewis, but in a lesser role.

The Patriots' backfield is well stocked following the additions of Rex Burkhead and Mike Gillislee. Reiss expects the Pats to "carefully manage" injury-riddled Lewis this season, limiting him to 15-20 snaps per game. Reiss did note that Lewis hit the line of scrimmage with "noticeable burst" at Thursday's OTA practice. Lewis is also expected to return kickoffs.

 
 
Source: ESPN.com 
May 28 - 8:54 AM
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One of the all time woulda coulda shoulda players.  Depressing to think about the journey of these 83 pages.  

 
BassNBrew said:
Lewis went in the late 9th, 12th, and 16th round of our recent re-drafts.  16 team leagues.   :unsure:
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I think that’s where he should be going. Assuming health Lewis will have some very solid games, but good luck guessing which games those will be as the Patriots rb usage will be dependent on their opponent per usual.

 
Offered numerous trades of Lewis for 3rd or 4th round rookie draft picks in a dynasty rookie draft last weekend with no takers. His value seems to be nil at this time, and I expect to cut him at roster cutdown time. (12 team PPR, 24 man rosters)

 
I'd trade a 4th for him in a heartbeat. Only problem is I've already got him.

Obviously I wouldnt put a ton of eggs in that basket, but he has shown differencemaking talent, and at RB sometimes guys are fragile until they aren't.

 
The one team I had him on, I cut to make space for rookies.  I already had DJ, Gordon, West, Perkins, Prosise, so I cut bait.

 
Kevin Dillon of Mass Live believes Dion Lewis' roster spot could be in danger.

The Patriots certainly made it seem like they are ready to move on from Lewis this offseason, signing Rex Burkhead and Mike Gillislee while extending James White through 2020. Lewis will only cost $1.3 million this year, however, and is an electric playmaker whenever he is healthy. It is not out of the question New England moves on, especially if he struggles with injuries during camp, but it is more likely Lewis sticks on the roster as a situational weapon. Unfortunately, that role is unlikely to return much fantasy value.

Source: Mass Live

Jul 10 - 9:31 AM
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As a dynasty owner, I would prefer that the Pats release him. As things stand for him with the Pats, I don't think he holds any dynasty value, and I expect to release him at roster cutdown. Given the opportunity to join another team, it would seem that his situation could only improve.

 
Stupid speculation. Lewis loses his spot to who? Yes, his FF value is looking down
but his NFL value is still good. Click bait with NO info to back it up.

 
That guy who wrote that article commented that Dion has most extensive injury history of anyone on the Patriots. I guess he forgot about Gronk

If he shows up to camp missing some burst(which was not the word this off-season) or gets hurt again than sure it can happen but otherwise I put his chances at getting cut as 0%. They value him to much for that. In fact I think they value him so much that the plan is to use him way less in the season to increase odds he'll be around in the playoffs which sucks for fantasy owners.

Also I hesitate to use the word need but while the NE RB's are not exactly proven commodities. 

Gillislee is going to be asked to go from backup RB who has averaged less than 7 carries a game to possibly a Blount type role. Can he do it? He's been impressive the last two seasons when he's got the chance but twice in his career he's been asked to carry the ball 15 or more times and he turned in a woeful 1.74 YPC in those two games. He had a 14 carry game which was better but even if you use that game his 3 games were he has got the most carries he's carried 53 times for 140 yards, 2.64 YPC. It might be that he's a lot better as COP coming in fresh for 7-12 carries a game.

Burkhead might have been heavily underused in Cincy and for sure got the job done the one game they turned to him but that was just the one game at the end of the season when he had fresh legs.

White they seem to really value his availability and consistency but he's close to a zero as pure rusher.

Heck after typing all that out I might add another caveat to what it would take for Dion to get cut and that is if they add another RB because the current 4 they have are pretty good pass receivers but seems kind of thin and unproven in terms of rushing ability.

 
menobrown said:
That guy who wrote that article commented that Dion has most extensive injury history of anyone on the Patriots. I guess he forgot about Gronk

If he shows up to camp missing some burst(which was not the word this off-season) or gets hurt again than sure it can happen but otherwise I put his chances at getting cut as 0%. They value him to much for that. In fact I think they value him so much that the plan is to use him way less in the season to increase odds he'll be around in the playoffs which sucks for fantasy owners.

Also I hesitate to use the word need but while the NE RB's are not exactly proven commodities. 

Gillislee is going to be asked to go from backup RB who has averaged less than 7 carries a game to possibly a Blount type role. Can he do it? He's been impressive the last two seasons when he's got the chance but twice in his career he's been asked to carry the ball 15 or more times and he turned in a woeful 1.74 YPC in those two games. He had a 14 carry game which was better but even if you use that game his 3 games were he has got the most carries he's carried 53 times for 140 yards, 2.64 YPC. It might be that he's a lot better as COP coming in fresh for 7-12 carries a game.

Burkhead might have been heavily underused in Cincy and for sure got the job done the one game they turned to him but that was just the one game at the end of the season when he had fresh legs.

White they seem to really value his availability and consistency but he's close to a zero as pure rusher.

Heck after typing all that out I might add another caveat to what it would take for Dion to get cut and that is if they add another RB because the current 4 they have are pretty good pass receivers but seems kind of thin and unproven in terms of rushing ability.
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As far as Lewis' injury history goes, over the course of his NFL career, Lewis has missed 61% of the games he would have been eligible to play in (he's played in only 38 games out of 96 regular season games since joining the league).

He currently is 4th on the RB depth chart. He is slated to be the Patriots kickoff returner. The Pats ponied up $6.4 million on Gillislee, $3.15 million in Burkhead, and gave White a $12 million extension. That's $21.5 million benchmarked for running backs not named Dion Lewis.

Lewis has had 15 carries in a game 3 times, so it's not exactly like he's been a proven workhorse back. Only 5 games with 10+ carries (6 if we add a playoff appearance). At this point, I would suggest that Gillislee is the main back with Burkhead his back up. And White is the receiving back with Lewis the back up.

I also think Lewis has gotten in BB's doghouse . . . first with the injury issues and second with the delay in getting surgery. Then in how long it took to get back on the field. Add in the fumbles in the playoffs and I am not sure Lewis is in great shape as far as usage and role for NE.

 
Anarchy99 said:
As far as Lewis' injury history goes, over the course of his NFL career, Lewis has missed 61% of the games he would have been eligible to play in (he's played in only 38 games out of 96 regular season games since joining the league).

He currently is 4th on the RB depth chart. He is slated to be the Patriots kickoff returner. The Pats ponied up $6.4 million on Gillislee, $3.15 million in Burkhead, and gave White a $12 million extension. That's $21.5 million benchmarked for running backs not named Dion Lewis.

Lewis has had 15 carries in a game 3 times, so it's not exactly like he's been a proven workhorse back. Only 5 games with 10+ carries (6 if we add a playoff appearance). At this point, I would suggest that Gillislee is the main back with Burkhead his back up. And White is the receiving back with Lewis the back up.

I also think Lewis has gotten in BB's doghouse . . . first with the injury issues and second with the delay in getting surgery. Then in how long it took to get back on the field. Add in the fumbles in the playoffs and I am not sure Lewis is in great shape as far as usage and role for NE.
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Gray and Ridley say "STAY AWAY FROM THE DOGHOUSE!" 

 
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