Fantasy Football - Footballguys Forums
Welcome to Our Forums. Once you've registered and logged in, you're primed to talk football, among other topics, with the sharpest and most experienced fantasy players on the internet.
Dion Lewis (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter ex-ghost
- Start date
JFS171
Footballguy
Excited for BB is so muted. I agree though - "first explosive run of the year" is a fairly powerful phrase.
SameSongNDance
Footballguy
Yup, and my assumption that BB loves Lewis goes back to the time where he was fumbling a ton and BB still wouldn't sit him. The truth is Lewis looks like he's almost all the way back from the knee injury and I wouldn't be at all surprised if he completely pushes Gillislee to the wayside. I don't own Lewis anywhere, but I do own Gillislee and after watching the last several games I'm convinced that even in a plus match-up where NE is favored by multiple scores Gillilsee is still unstartable.. because of Lewis.
JFS171
Footballguy
I've thought this since Lewis got 3 carries inside the 10, so completely on the same page there ...
I don't have strong opinions on Gillislee, but I'm continuously confused by how White gets snaps while Dion is healthy. There is literally nothing White can do that Dion can't. I want to buy into the "they're saving Dion for the playoffs" but why run him between the tackles right now? Why have him returning kickoffs? Why feature White in the super bowl after Dion scored 3 TDs in the divisional game? There are holes in every hypothesis about why Dion is used the way he is. I think it's one of those mysteries that will never be solved.
SameSongNDance
Footballguy
I don't know. I thought White was a JAG with small hands when he first came into the league but the lights turned on for him at some point and I've been thoroughly impressed every since.
I'm not saying he's heinously bad, just that he's a one dimensional player and Dion can be just as good in the passing game as White while also at least giving the threat of running the ball as to not tip the OC's hand.
simsarge
Footballguy
AnonymousBob
Footballguy
It's costing you a lottery ticket for another position. I'm not saying whether it's worth that cost, but any player you grab means another guy got can't snag. There are a lot of interesting pieces on the ww this week.
Insein
Footballguy
Nothing out there I want. I already have Cohen (drafted). Drafted Carson, he's done. Had McGuire and dropped him 3 weeks ago. Have Brieda. Everyone else is already on a team.
I feel sorry for people who are still hanging onto Allen, Cohen, and Jones. Collins, Cunningham, and Montgomery are taking snaps from them. I guess if you play 1PPR Allen retains some value, but if Collins stops fumbling, Allen will be an afterthought. Cohen has played 17 and 18 snaps the past 2 weeks. Montgomery practiced in full this week. I'm just being argumentative, though. I drafted Dion in a single league this year... a 25 roster best ball league for $1 or $2 and I have no regrets about that. I'm just arguing his case as a football fan. I see James White and I know he's either going to get arm tackled for a 2 yard rush or he's going to run a route. Dion, however, looks electric in all phases of the game.
Bull Dozier
Footballguy
With Bryant hurt, I am needing to drop someone in order to pick up a kicker this week. I'm thinking I'd be doing myself a favor by dropping Lewis and be ridding myself of waiting for his handful of games that have value, but will be while on my bench anyways. This guys one great half season effectively shortened my bench by one player since then waiting for it to happen again.
He's a pretty safe drop. He's a free agent in all of my redraft leagues with rosters less than 20 (12 teams).
Insein
Footballguy
shadyridr
Footballguy
Bull Dozier
Footballguy
Dude's a weapon the last couple of years. If I drop him, someone with a crap team will pick him up just to spite me. Plus it is a keeper league, and I have him on a minimum contract.
zamboni
Footballguy
The cluster in NE is probably going to keep a lid on Lewis's value this year. But I think he's a hold in keeper/dynasty leagues given that he's an UFA after this year.
No one is going to break the bank for him, but given the Pats history of not paying up for their FAs, another team may sign him away for just enough and give him a bigger role.
No one is going to break the bank for him, but given the Pats history of not paying up for their FAs, another team may sign him away for just enough and give him a bigger role.
Alex P Keaton
Footballguy
Update? Anybody?
Alex P Keaton
Footballguy
Lewis actually started and had the first three carries of the game, per the game log.
I think Burkhead is going to be the guy to own in a few weeks...he can do it all and Gilislee has fallen out of favor.
Stompin' Tom Connors
Footballguy
I’ve always loved Lewis and agree his best shot at dependable fantasy relevance is being on another team.
I am so tempted to pick him up but it’s hard to predict his usage.
Was his usage this past week really based on what the team thinks he can and should do going forward, or just a product of Gillislee fumbling and being sent to the doghouse?
Does the presence of White cap his value? Will game flow and BB’s mysterious scheming make him disappear for large stretches of games as they target and exploit other individual opponent weaknesses?
Is Dion really currying favor or a convenient filler that will resume spot series work when Burkhead is fully healthy?
And if Dion really does out and out win the early down work, does injury history come into play?
My heart is saying yes; my brain is saying there are still too many factors at play that can prevent Lewis from really impacting my team.
I am so tempted to pick him up but it’s hard to predict his usage.
Was his usage this past week really based on what the team thinks he can and should do going forward, or just a product of Gillislee fumbling and being sent to the doghouse?
Does the presence of White cap his value? Will game flow and BB’s mysterious scheming make him disappear for large stretches of games as they target and exploit other individual opponent weaknesses?
Is Dion really currying favor or a convenient filler that will resume spot series work when Burkhead is fully healthy?
And if Dion really does out and out win the early down work, does injury history come into play?
My heart is saying yes; my brain is saying there are still too many factors at play that can prevent Lewis from really impacting my team.
I'm tempted to put a $0 bid in for him in a few leagues. He played a season high 29 snaps (43%). Without getting more targets, though, his value will be quite limited in PPR formats. He's averaging 1 target per 13 snaps, but strangely got 0 targets this week. Gillislee played a season low 13 snaps and Burkhead should be back any day now. There's always an outside chance that Dion's impressive production will actually be rewarded, though, by giving him more work... but that's crazy talk. NE loves their one-dimensional RBs!
zamboni
Footballguy
Lewis started and got a lot of work early because Belichick seemed to really like his explosive runs from the week before. And when Gillislee put the ball on the turf, that opened things up more for Lewis.
But as others have said, the overriding concern is that Bill loves to keep the other teams guessing, so figuring out who will get the most touches out of the backfield is anyone's lousy guess. Seems like Lewis has earned touches, but whether he gets 7 or 17, or anywhere in between/less/more, is a total crapshoot.
But as others have said, the overriding concern is that Bill loves to keep the other teams guessing, so figuring out who will get the most touches out of the backfield is anyone's lousy guess. Seems like Lewis has earned touches, but whether he gets 7 or 17, or anywhere in between/less/more, is a total crapshoot.
Chaka
Footballguy
But what does it mean to be a 'lead back' for New England. We know it doesn't mean he will get 20 touches per game. It seems unlikely that any NE RB will get 20 touches in any game. It also seems unlikely that he will regularly be in the game inside the 5 yard line. So what can we expect from the NE lead RB, particularly when three, or more, are healthy?
Alex P Keaton
Footballguy
Right. He isn't the lead back - NE doesn't have one of those. He appears to be the starter right now - but that is it.
Insein
Footballguy
Insein
Footballguy
Chaka
Footballguy
I believe 18 is the high water this season for a New England (Gillislee in week 2). Since then it looks like 12 touches is the max for any NE RB. It just seems like it is every bit the unpredictable situation going forward as our worst projections going into the season.
sho nuff
Footballguy
Agreed...both are on my wire. I have Gallman...right now my add is for Darkwa, then Lewis to drop Gallman.
Alex P Keaton
Footballguy
The confusing thing still is the lack of passing game usage for Lewis. He's got great hands, much more athletic than White, etc. what is White better at?
Young 8
Footballguy
Alex P Keaton
Footballguy
Based on? Serious question - I have zero idea which guy is better at pass protection. You're probably right, but is there any concrete evidence of that?
JFS171
Footballguy
Very quietly, I think we saw Lewis take the goal line role from Gillislee a few weeks ago when he got 3 runs inside the 10 against Carolina. That's gone rather unnoticed, but he scored again Sunday on a 1-yard TD, a role we all expected Gillislee to hold.
If that's Lewis' new role, which ... I think we've seen it for a few weeks now, then to me that's worth owning in every league and worth potential flex consideration. I just don't think Gillislee is that good, personally.
I agree with the other poster who said Burkhead probably affects White more than Lewis, though this is obviously all speculation.
I grabbed Lewis last week where he was available and will ask about him in trades this week, though I doubt most are selling at this point.
If that's Lewis' new role, which ... I think we've seen it for a few weeks now, then to me that's worth owning in every league and worth potential flex consideration. I just don't think Gillislee is that good, personally.
I agree with the other poster who said Burkhead probably affects White more than Lewis, though this is obviously all speculation.
I grabbed Lewis last week where he was available and will ask about him in trades this week, though I doubt most are selling at this point.
zamboni
Footballguy
From most reports, Lewis got the goal line love against the Jets because Gillislee was benched for a long stretch from his fumble. Very preliminary to say that Lewis is the new goal line back, but two weeks now is something to monitor.
Last edited by a moderator:
Chaka
Footballguy
That is an interesting observation and I think strategically Lewis offers the Patriots more run-pass options in those situations over Gillislee. But it is really difficult to wrap my brain around the idea that they would subject him to consistent short yardage carries. That may be my flaw for too much linear/traditionalist thinking.
JFS171
Footballguy
Well here's my thing - against Carolina Lewis had a total of 4 carries, 3 of which came from inside the 10 yard line. To me, that's not accidental, and they weren't hurry up plays where he just happened to be on the field.
Then we move to the Tampa Thursday night game and Lewis leads the team in rushing and gives the Patriots what BB himself describes as "our first explosive run of the season." Gillislee did get two carries in the red zone against Tampa, from the 11 and from the 6.
Then the Jets game where Lewis starts and scores a 1-yard TD (which, to be fair, did occur after Gillislee fumbled).
At best you could say Gillislee and Lewis are interchangeable right now for NE, with the team not really caring which guy is in the game getting the goal line carries. Or you could see Lewis scoring goal line TDs in 2 of the last 3 games, starting the most recent game, and leading the team in rushing for 2 of the past 3 games.
Either way - this *feels* like Lewis is coming on. That could all change as soon as next week.
Anarchy99
Footballguy
From my view, it looks like they have been playing their backs in a rotation of drives, not so much in situations. Gillislee will be in for a drive, then White or Lewis, etc. BB will crucify players that cough up the ball, so Gillislee got to sit and ponder that most of the game against NY. Lewis had his first game with 10 touches on the season. Clearly that's more than the other games (2, 5, 5, 5, 9) but still likely not enough to produce big fantasy numbers. Put another way, if he didn't get in the end zone last week, his fantasy line would have been pretty weak.
I don't think they are going away from Gillislee or White and Burkhead should be back, so they will all devalue the others. The Pats season hasn't gone according to plan (no Edelman, weak defense, no big leads to salt away, less effective running the ball, more emphasis on having a back pick up the blitz, etc.), making it hard to project if what we see is what we get or if things will morph over the rest of the season.
I don't think they are going away from Gillislee or White and Burkhead should be back, so they will all devalue the others. The Pats season hasn't gone according to plan (no Edelman, weak defense, no big leads to salt away, less effective running the ball, more emphasis on having a back pick up the blitz, etc.), making it hard to project if what we see is what we get or if things will morph over the rest of the season.
